Latest / Best of LinkedIn: Digital Transformation & Tech / Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 48/ 49
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 0: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CW-Forty-Eight and Forty-Nine, Frennus is a B-to-B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.
- 0:17Speaker 0: Welcome back to the deep dive.
- 0:19Speaker 0: Today, we're doing a rapid scan of the top defense tech trends we've seen bubbling up on LinkedIn over the last two weeks.
- 0:25Speaker 0: That's calendar weeks, forty-eight and forty-nine.
- 0:28Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 0:29Speaker 0: We've tried to cut through the noise to find the real signal and what we're seeing is this steady critical momentum in a few key areas.
- 0:37Speaker 0: For
- 0:37Speaker 1: sure.
- 0:37Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking autonomy, sensors, command and control, and AI.
- 0:41Speaker 0: And especially how these things are actually being debated and, you know, implemented within the European defense ecosystem, which is fascinating right now.
- 0:47Speaker 0: It
- 0:47Speaker 1: is.
- 0:47Speaker 1: And this isn't about white papers.
- 0:49Speaker 1: We're looking at what people who are actually in the industry are sharing.
- 0:52Speaker 1: And we saw what four major themes kind of crystallize.
- 0:56Speaker 1: You've got the race towards truly autonomous systems, the absolute need for layered counter UAS stacks, and then this sort of sudden arrival of generative AI and strategic planning.
- 1:08Speaker 0: And the last one, which might be the most important.
- 1:10Speaker 1: Oh, absolutely.
- 1:10Speaker 1: The growing urgency to fix how we buy and field all this new tech.
- 1:15Speaker 0: That structural piece is huge.
- 1:16Speaker 0: But, okay, let's start with the hardware and the code.
- 1:19Speaker 0: Our first theme.
- 1:20Speaker 0: Uncrewed systems and the autonomy horizon.
- 1:23Speaker 0: Right.
- 1:24Speaker 0: The big story here isn't just that drones exist.
- 1:27Speaker 0: It's how little space is left between a human supervising the operation and... Well, full autonomous decision-making.
- 1:35Speaker 1: And this is where it gets really serious.
- 1:37Speaker 1: What stood out, and this is noted by Aviv Barzohar, is how close we are to crossing a major threshold with international humanitarian law.
- 1:44Speaker 0: What do you mean?
- 1:45Speaker 1: Well, frontline drones are already getting AI-generated strike recommendations.
- 1:49Speaker 1: The operator is there, but they're just giving the final OK.
- 1:52Speaker 0: So it's less of a decision and more of a final confirmation, a checkbox.
- 1:56Speaker 1: A checkbox.
- 1:57Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 1:58Speaker 1: It's a tiny but absolutely critical step away from lethal autonomous weapons making that final call all by themselves.
- 2:05Speaker 1: The
- 2:05Speaker 0: legal and ethical side of that is just enormous.
- 2:08Speaker 1: It's huge.
- 2:09Speaker 1: And as these systems get more powerful, the question of accountability, if an AI gets it wrong, I mean, fratricide, civilian casualties, that gets harder to answer, not easier.
- 2:20Speaker 0: Okay, that's the ethical complexity.
- 2:22Speaker 0: Let's... pivot from that risk to the reality of what's being fielded.
- 2:26Speaker 0: We saw some really successful experiments linking unmanned systems across the entire kill chain.
- 2:31Speaker 0: You
- 2:31Speaker 1: must be thinking of the Harakas Storm exercise in Kenya.
- 2:33Speaker 1: That's the one.
- 2:34Speaker 1: Yeah, a textbook case of integrating tech quickly.
- 2:37Speaker 1: Joseph Trulove and George Huckle detailed how it all worked.
- 2:40Speaker 1: You had the ARX Robotics Churian UGV.
- 2:43Speaker 0: The ground vehicle.
- 2:44Speaker 0: Right,
- 2:44Speaker 1: the UGV.
- 2:45Speaker 1: It detected and classified a target, an armored vehicle.
- 2:48Speaker 1: That data moves super fast HQ.
- 2:50Speaker 1: and then an HX-II delivered the effect.
- 2:52Speaker 0: So what does a demo like that actually prove strategically?
- 2:55Speaker 0: Is it just a cool test?
- 2:56Speaker 1: No, it proves that really short decision cycles are achievable.
- 3:00Speaker 1: I mean, the time from spotting something to hitting it used to be minutes, sometimes hours.
- 3:05Speaker 1: Now we're compressing that.
- 3:07Speaker 0: And that speed is the new measure of combat effectiveness.
- 3:10Speaker 1: It is, and they demonstrated it in the field.
- 3:12Speaker 0: Speaking of fielding advanced stuff, Enduro and EdG Group launched the Omen VTOL AAV.
- 3:20Speaker 0: Torst & Stobb flagged this and it feels like a big shift in platform size and capability.
- 3:26Speaker 1: The Omen is a really interesting aircraft.
- 3:28Speaker 1: It's a hybrid electric tail-sitting platform.
- 3:30Speaker 0: So vertical takeoff and landing, no runway needed.
- 3:33Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 3:34Speaker 1: But the key thing here is that it has the payload and the range you'd normally see on a much bigger group four or five drone.
- 3:41Speaker 0: But with the flexibility of a smaller platform.
- 3:43Speaker 1: That's the game changer.
- 3:44Speaker 1: It shifts you away from relying on big, vulnerable air bases.
- 3:47Speaker 0: It's all about that operational flexibility.
- 3:49Speaker 0: And Enduro seems to be betting everything on just accumulating massive amounts of operational data.
- 3:55Speaker 1: Jared Wilson pointed out something that's just mind-boggling.
- 3:58Speaker 1: Their autonomous undersea vehicles have clocked over forty thousand one hundred kilometers of mission time.
- 4:03Speaker 1: That's
- 4:03Speaker 0: more than the circumference of the earth.
- 4:05Speaker 1: It is.
- 4:06Speaker 1: And if you're in this industry, that fact should define your perspective.
- 4:09Speaker 1: You cannot simulate that kind of real world complexity.
- 4:13Speaker 1: The live data from actual ocean currents, salinity, noise, it's just.
- 4:19Speaker 1: So much better for training your AI
- 4:21Speaker 0: models.
- 4:21Speaker 0: That kind of operational experience becomes a competitive moat that legacy firms just can't match.
- 4:26Speaker 0: Yep,
- 4:27Speaker 1: and that leads us perfectly into our second and honestly deeply frustrating theme.
- 4:32Speaker 1: Procurement, iteration, and the industrial base.
- 4:35Speaker 0: Because all this amazing tech means absolutely nothing if the procurement system just stops it cold.
- 4:40Speaker 1: You said it.
- 4:41Speaker 1: You can have the best AI on the planet, but if your acquisition process was built for you are failing your war fighters.
- 4:47Speaker 0: And the evidence for this is just dramatic.
- 4:49Speaker 0: Artem Rose cited it.
- 4:51Speaker 1: The U.S.
- 4:51Speaker 1: Army Secretary's statement.
- 4:53Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 4:54Speaker 0: Saying contractors have, and I'm quoting, conned the U.S.
- 4:56Speaker 0: military into these insanely expensive buys.
- 4:59Speaker 0: The example was that helicopter knob.
- 5:03Speaker 1: For a
- 5:03Speaker 0: part you could buy for fifteen.
- 5:04Speaker 0: It's almost hard to believe.
- 5:06Speaker 1: It is, but it keeps happening.
- 5:07Speaker 1: And like Morose said, that's not a supply chain issue.
- 5:10Speaker 1: It's a failure of the procurement architecture itself.
- 5:13Speaker 0: It rewards complexity and vendor lock-in, not performance.
- 5:18Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 5:19Speaker 1: Which is why reform isn't just a nice idea anymore.
- 5:21Speaker 1: It's an operational necessity.
- 5:23Speaker 0: So if that's the broken model, what does a functional one look like?
- 5:27Speaker 0: It
- 5:27Speaker 1: looks market-driven.
- 5:28Speaker 1: It looks performance-based.
- 5:30Speaker 1: Look at what's happening with Ukraine's Bravy One Market.
- 5:33Speaker 1: It's
- 5:33Speaker 0: been called an Amazon for the military.
- 5:35Speaker 1: That's a great way to put it.
- 5:36Speaker 1: It forces providers to compete on pure performance, capabilities, pricing, reviews.
- 5:42Speaker 1: It's all visible.
- 5:43Speaker 1: The soldiers on the front line choose what actually works.
- 5:46Speaker 0: And the system rewards battlefield results, not who has the best lobbyists.
- 5:50Speaker 1: It completely flips the incentive structure.
- 5:52Speaker 1: You have to.
- 5:52Speaker 1: optimized for speed and capability, not just margin on a slow contract.
- 5:57Speaker 0: But that requires a whole cultural shift, especially in how we view development and testing.
- 6:01Speaker 1: Oh, absolutely.
- 6:02Speaker 1: Because when a company like Andorrol runs rapid tests, the media often jumps on any failures.
- 6:08Speaker 0: I've seen that.
- 6:09Speaker 0: And it totally misses the point of iteration.
- 6:12Speaker 1: It does.
- 6:13Speaker 1: Madeline Hart and Matt Beb both stress this.
- 6:16Speaker 1: Failing a lot isn't a bug.
- 6:18Speaker 1: It's a feature of iterative development.
- 6:20Speaker 0: You have to break things to make them better.
- 6:22Speaker 0: Of course.
- 6:23Speaker 1: That's how you get reliable capability.
- 6:25Speaker 1: You find the bugs, fix them, ship again, and repeat until the thing is solid.
- 6:29Speaker 1: It's
- 6:29Speaker 0: about compressing that time to relevance, right?
- 6:31Speaker 0: The difference between a ten-year cycle and a ten-month one.
- 6:34Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 6:35Speaker 1: So once you have fast tech and a better procurement system, what's left?
- 6:40Speaker 1: Matt McCran argued that once you clear a certain tech threshold, it all comes down to leadership.
- 6:44Speaker 0: Interesting.
- 6:45Speaker 1: His point is that the companies that really build momentum are the ones obsessed with the customer and aligned around the mission, not just the next contract.
- 6:53Speaker 1: Cool tech alone is not a sustainable advantage.
- 6:56Speaker 0: And that focus on execution is really gaining steam in Europe.
- 7:00Speaker 0: Florian Seibel highlighted the recent valuation uplift for quantum systems.
- 7:04Speaker 1: Which is a huge signal of investor confidence in European dual-use scaling.
- 7:09Speaker 1: The bet is on agile private companies.
- 7:12Speaker 0: And that feeds into a broader strategic vision for Mark A. Whitefeld.
- 7:16Speaker 0: He's arguing Europe has to connect its military innovation with its existing industrial base.
- 7:23Speaker 1: Yes.
- 7:24Speaker 1: Think about it.
- 7:25Speaker 1: How can an automotive supply chain adapt to produce drone parts faster than a traditional aerospace firm.
- 7:31Speaker 0: By using the scale and precision manufacturing they already
- 7:34Speaker 1: have.
- 7:35Speaker 1: That's the connection Europe needs to make for sustainable deterrence.
- 7:38Speaker 0: Okay, so let's try to connect all these pieces.
- 7:40Speaker 0: Theme three is C-II networks and layer defense.
- 7:45Speaker 0: This is where it all comes together.
- 7:47Speaker 1: And where you have to deal with a sheer number of threats like drones.
- 7:50Speaker 0: Kirill Jokimovich had a great take on this.
- 7:52Speaker 0: He argues modern war is a sensor war, not a drone
- 7:56Speaker 1: war.
- 7:56Speaker 1: Yeah, the old idea of a continuous front line is just gone.
- 7:59Speaker 1: It's replaced by these dense, interconnected kill zones.
- 8:02Speaker 1: So
- 8:02Speaker 0: the system of observation and coordination is more important than the specs of any one drone.
- 8:07Speaker 0: Infinitely
- 8:07Speaker 1: more important.
- 8:08Speaker 0: If it's a sensor war, then integrated air defense is the answer.
- 8:12Speaker 0: And MBDA seems to be having a lot of success here.
- 8:14Speaker 0: They secured an export contract for their Sky Wardens system.
- 8:17Speaker 1: And it won the Frontex Prize, twenty twenty five.
- 8:19Speaker 1: That's a big deal.
- 8:20Speaker 1: A
- 8:20Speaker 0: real mark of maturity.
- 8:22Speaker 1: Florentaloo and stiffenrb pointed out that its strength is how integrated it is.
- 8:26Speaker 1: It blends advanced sensors, AI-enabled C-II, and a bunch of different effectors.
- 8:31Speaker 1: Like
- 8:31Speaker 0: the helipede laser and the Mistral III missile.
- 8:34Speaker 1: Right, and that blend is the key innovation.
- 8:36Speaker 1: Why
- 8:36Speaker 0: is that?
- 8:37Speaker 0: Why not just one or the other?
- 8:38Speaker 1: Because you need layers.
- 8:40Speaker 1: The laser is great for short-range swarms.
- 8:43Speaker 1: High volume, low cost per shot.
- 8:45Speaker 1: But the missile gives you the range and kinetic punch for bigger or faster targets.
- 8:49Speaker 1: It's
- 8:49Speaker 0: about having the right tool for the right threat.
- 8:51Speaker 1: It's robust, flexible, and ultimately more cost-effective.
- 8:56Speaker 0: And we see that same layered idea on platforms themselves.
- 9:00Speaker 0: Robin Rhine was discussing Rhine Metal Strike Shield.
- 9:02Speaker 0: Strike
- 9:02Speaker 1: Shield is a perfect example.
- 9:03Speaker 1: It's a hybrid active passive system.
- 9:06Speaker 1: Its design is modular, so it minimizes weight.
- 9:09Speaker 1: But crucially, it also minimizes the electronic signature.
- 9:13Speaker 0: So you're not a giant blinking target on the battlefield?
- 9:15Speaker 1: Precisely.
- 9:16Speaker 1: And that principle is now the standard for modern CUAS concepts.
- 9:20Speaker 0: We're also seeing big wins in pure C-II.
- 9:23Speaker 0: Kyle S. Erickson noted that Andrewle was selected for the U.S.
- 9:27Speaker 0: Army's IBCSM program.
- 9:29Speaker 1: That's a massive step.
- 9:30Speaker 1: The integrated battle command system, it basically solidifies their lattice platform for counter-UAS fire control.
- 9:36Speaker 0: And in Europe?
- 9:37Speaker 1: They're making progress.
- 9:38Speaker 1: The EDOCC project, the European Defense Operational Collaborative Cloud, had its successful final presentation.
- 9:46Speaker 1: Harold Mannheim confirmed they showed off autonomous C-II systems using cloud tech.
- 9:50Speaker 0: A real leap forward for collective defense over there.
- 9:53Speaker 0: For sure.
- 9:53Speaker 0: Okay, let's hit our final theme.
- 9:55Speaker 0: Generative AI for strategy and wargaming.
- 9:58Speaker 0: This is where things move off the physical battlefield and into the planning room.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Yeah, this is all about getting to continuous foresight.
- 10:04Speaker 1: Laura Sampso detailed how Gen AI is changing strategy through AI-supported wargaming.
- 10:09Speaker 0: Like the new Gen War Lab at Johns Hopkins APL.
- 10:12Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 10:13Speaker 1: The goal is to move past these slow episodic planning cycles and toward continuous model-driven scenario exploration.
- 10:19Speaker 0: So instead of a two-week paper exercise, you can test thousands of what-if scenarios really, really fast.
- 10:24Speaker 1: Right.
- 10:25Speaker 1: What are the risks of using it in that environment?
- 10:27Speaker 0: Well, the model could be predictable.
- 10:30Speaker 0: Or worse, it could have some kind of hidden bias baked in.
- 10:33Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 10:34Speaker 1: If it hallucinates a scenario that seems real but is statistically unlikely, any strategy you build on that is going to be flawed from the start.
- 10:43Speaker 0: Which is why you need labs like Genwar to verify and validate these models.
- 10:49Speaker 1: And operationally, security is everything here.
- 10:53Speaker 1: Ismail Alvarez made a great point about the difference between open weight and open source models.
- 10:58Speaker 0: A distinction a lot of people miss.
- 11:00Speaker 1: And it's crucial for security teams.
- 11:02Speaker 1: Open source means everything is public code, data, all of it.
- 11:06Speaker 1: Open weight means the model's parameters are public, but the training data and code might not be.
- 11:11Speaker 0: So defense agencies can get the capability and flexibility of the model without exposing the core platform.
- 11:17Speaker 1: That's the balancing act.
- 11:18Speaker 1: And it's no surprise the primes are moving fast.
- 11:21Speaker 1: Jacob Sprague noted that the Lockheed Martin AI Center is partnering directly with Skunkworks engineers to enhance their autonomy products.
- 11:27Speaker 0: So it's not stuck in a lab, it's getting integrated right into the development stream.
- 11:31Speaker 1: As fast as possible.
- 11:32Speaker 0: Okay, so let's summarize this deep dive.
- 11:34Speaker 0: We've seen autonomy maturing which brings successes like Haraka Storm, but also these huge ethical warnings.
- 11:42Speaker 0: We've seen urgent calls for procurement reform.
- 11:45Speaker 1: The forty-seven thousand dollar knob problem.
- 11:47Speaker 0: Right, and the push for market-based models like BRAV-E-one.
- 11:51Speaker 0: And then finally, the systemic integration across C-II sensors and the industrial base, all now being supported by the first serious uses of Gen.A.I.
- 12:01Speaker 0: in wargaming.
- 12:02Speaker 1: And if you connect all those threads, there was one thing that was mentioned over and over, kind of as a silent assumption.
- 12:07Speaker 1: Resilient PNT.
- 12:09Speaker 1: Position, navigation, and timing.
- 12:11Speaker 0: Backed by space links.
- 12:12Speaker 0: Yes.
- 12:13Speaker 1: We just assume GPS and comms will be there.
- 12:15Speaker 1: But they aren't guarantees.
- 12:16Speaker 1: They're assumptions that have to be stress tested.
- 12:19Speaker 1: And that leaves a pretty provocative question for everyone listening, whether you're a strategist or a product leader.
- 12:23Speaker 0: What's that?
- 12:24Speaker 1: What steps are you taking today to make sure your systems are resilient and can actually operate in a contested PNT environment?
- 12:31Speaker 1: because that backbone we all assume will be there.
- 12:33Speaker 1: That could be the next single point of
- 12:57Speaker 0: failure.