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AFC North Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
0:12
Speaker 1: podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Mike, and
0:18
Speaker 1: Padre might be a FF professional. Better signon Hunter, and
0:22
Speaker 1: also I'm in Chad.
0:23
Speaker 3: How are we doing, dude?
0:27
Speaker 2: We are so close to having real football?
0:30
Speaker 1: Two weeks from today is the kickoff for the twenty
0:34
Speaker 1: twenty five NFL season, which means that today is our
0:39
Speaker 1: last division to preview. We are doing the n the
0:45
Speaker 1: AFC North. We got the grittiest, most blue collar franchises
0:51
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and the Bengals. I don't boom reminder,
0:58
Speaker 1: I'm letting everybody know which divisions everybody is playing in
1:02
Speaker 1: their schedule so they get a sense of it. AFC North,
1:05
Speaker 1: in its conference, plays the AFC East and they also
1:14
Speaker 1: play the NFC North Baltimore Ravens. I doing my research
1:25
Speaker 1: started falling more and more in love with this team.
1:31
Speaker 1: We're going to get to the Achilles Heel, which is
1:34
Speaker 1: always the same division minus one sixty conference plus three
1:40
Speaker 1: twenty five Super Bowl plus six point fifty win total
1:44
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. Simon, do you want to hear
1:49
Speaker 1: why I absolutely love the Ravens right now.
1:54
Speaker 3: C It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not.
2:01
Speaker 1: This is a team that you know, generationally has had
2:04
Speaker 1: an incredible coaching staff and an incredible personnel department. Right
2:08
Speaker 1: their front office has been legit. That's why there has
2:11
Speaker 1: been no transition for them. In the first half of
2:15
Speaker 1: last year. Clearly, their defense was terrible, right Zach Orr,
2:20
Speaker 1: the new defensive coordinator, had Kyle Hamilton playing closer to
2:25
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, and this team was getting burned
2:28
Speaker 1: so often.
2:28
Speaker 2: They were giving up.
2:29
Speaker 1: So many points, and as a better we had a
2:33
Speaker 1: lot of chances. It was clear early on that they
2:36
Speaker 1: were not able to maintain leads and we were able
2:39
Speaker 1: to bet against them because they kept giving up the
2:42
Speaker 1: back door and their spreads were so high. Like the
2:44
Speaker 1: public is always on the Ravens. Then they made some
2:47
Speaker 1: significant personnel adjustments in the middle of the years, specifically
2:51
Speaker 1: Kyle Hamilton moving back into a more traditional safety role
2:56
Speaker 1: defending against sort of the long, bulsive plays that had
3:01
Speaker 1: been killing them. After going five to five and one
3:04
Speaker 1: the first eleven year eleven games against spread, they went
3:08
Speaker 1: five to one in the final six amazing, Right, What
3:13
Speaker 1: I love about the Ravens is they don't get complacent.
3:17
Speaker 1: What did they do? Their secondary Kyle Hamilton masked some
3:22
Speaker 1: of the weaknesses they had. So what did they do?
3:25
Speaker 1: They added JayR Alexander from the Packers. They drafted Malachi
3:29
Speaker 1: Starks from Georgia. They added Chuck Pegano as a secondary coach. Right,
3:35
Speaker 1: they just got better defensively. And oh, by the way,
3:41
Speaker 1: they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson.
3:45
Speaker 2: So amazing. Love this team. And then none of it will.
3:50
Speaker 1: Matter if they can't figure out how to lose Lamar
3:52
Speaker 1: in the right way in a playoff game. Right, So, like,
3:56
Speaker 1: I want to do everything with this team. I want
3:58
Speaker 1: to bet them at every level. And I still worry
4:01
Speaker 1: about Lamar and not being you know, the player that
4:04
Speaker 1: he lived that he is during the regular season when
4:06
Speaker 1: we get to a playoff game.
4:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the biggest thing jumped out. We had that
4:11
Speaker 4: Bachelor part again. I'm not around just Joe Schmoe normal people.
4:14
Speaker 4: That often was the Ravens hype. Everyone all these Joe
4:19
Speaker 4: public people love the Ravens super Bowl bet right, That's
4:22
Speaker 4: that's who these Eagles fans think they're gonna be playing
4:25
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. I am just like,
4:28
Speaker 4: where's that confidence come from? Why do you have more
4:30
Speaker 4: confidence than little more than you do and josh Alla
4:32
Speaker 4: Mahomes and I think it is because of what you
4:35
Speaker 4: just talked about, Chad, that this team once again is
4:38
Speaker 4: absolutely stacked. And you know, this is my pushback on
4:41
Speaker 4: the Hurts disrespect was two years ago. You could argue
4:47
Speaker 4: that Ravens team that lost at home to Kansas City
4:52
Speaker 4: was one of the greatest teams ever in anyone's model,
4:55
Speaker 4: Like I know DVLA had them as I think a
4:57
Speaker 4: third best team ever record on their database. You know,
5:01
Speaker 4: this is one of the best franchises at drafting ever,
5:05
Speaker 4: Like they consistently draft so well, and Chad just talked
5:09
Speaker 4: about they attacked free agency every year as well, So
5:12
Speaker 4: you don't think they have the money and they cheat
5:14
Speaker 4: in other areas, right, Like their d line, their detackles
5:17
Speaker 4: might not be the best, but they're just so dominant
5:20
Speaker 4: in other areas. Right they might have the arguably the
5:23
Speaker 4: best safety and the best linebacker in all football. So
5:26
Speaker 4: it's like when you have Roquan When you have someone
5:29
Speaker 4: that dominant, someone who can tackle so well, it changes
5:33
Speaker 4: the dynamic of the team, right, That makes teams have
5:35
Speaker 4: to pass the ball. So that's what they went out,
5:37
Speaker 4: Chad just talked with. They went out and try to
5:38
Speaker 4: attack the secondary, something they viewed early in the year.
5:41
Speaker 3: Last year that was a weakness.
5:42
Speaker 4: Like Chad said, they were awful at defense first eight
5:45
Speaker 4: weeks of the season. And you know, their head, their coordinator,
5:47
Speaker 4: the DC, I think it was my age. I think
5:49
Speaker 4: it was thirty four to thirty five years old.
5:51
Speaker 3: So it makes sense. Okay, this guy is in over
5:53
Speaker 3: his head.
5:54
Speaker 4: He apparently reached out to other people and had people
5:56
Speaker 4: come in and help him out.
5:57
Speaker 3: And with that, that's a beautiful thing in life. You
5:59
Speaker 3: can be humble and take.
6:01
Speaker 4: Outside help and everything you have all the answers, it's
6:04
Speaker 4: only gonna make you better as a person.
6:05
Speaker 3: Grow and that's what happened with their defense. So grew,
6:07
Speaker 3: it got better.
6:08
Speaker 4: Like you said, towards end of the season, they were
6:10
Speaker 4: probably the best defense left in the AFC. But this
6:15
Speaker 4: year they ran into was you know Josh Allen, he
6:19
Speaker 4: showed up and that was this year they ran into
6:21
Speaker 4: it was like, okay, you guys are a great defense.
6:24
Speaker 3: You're going against the MVP.
6:25
Speaker 4: There never is a great defense to stop the MVP
6:27
Speaker 4: right when the MVP is clicking. It doesn't matter how
6:31
Speaker 4: great and dominant or defense was that year, just it's
6:34
Speaker 4: not gonna live up to that moment.
6:35
Speaker 3: And it sucked for them. They did. They got stops.
6:38
Speaker 4: Into that game right, and it was all in Lamar's hands,
6:40
Speaker 4: and yes, Mark Andrews dropped it, but it was a
6:42
Speaker 4: little too late, like even if they scored, we talked
6:44
Speaker 4: about there was too much time left. So you know,
6:47
Speaker 4: me and Chad, this is a long winted answer that
6:49
Speaker 4: I love this team as well as you do, but
6:51
Speaker 4: this is another team that I'm happy to be patient
6:53
Speaker 4: on because we're starting.
6:54
Speaker 3: The NFL season starts in two weeks.
6:56
Speaker 4: If you've already missed the boat on them divisional odds
6:59
Speaker 4: and if you don't want to bet the win total,
7:01
Speaker 4: I would honestly wait because.
7:03
Speaker 3: Of the way their schedule starts.
7:04
Speaker 4: I know if you look at this chat, but they
7:05
Speaker 4: literally start at Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, at Kansas City, Houston
7:12
Speaker 4: Rams than the bye week.
7:14
Speaker 3: So to me, pretty simple position there.
7:18
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, you're missing one game the Juggernaut
7:23
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears.
7:24
Speaker 3: What after the bye week? I think so yeah, I
7:27
Speaker 3: think they'll be prayer. I think they'll be prayed for
7:29
Speaker 3: that one. But yeah, I just I look at their schedule.
7:31
Speaker 3: It's like, why rush to the window right now?
7:34
Speaker 4: Can't we be patient here and hope you know, Pittsburgh
7:37
Speaker 4: has a great start. The Bengals, who we both don't
7:40
Speaker 4: really believe, and come out on a hot start. So
7:43
Speaker 4: it's like, you know, everyone in the world, every drill
7:46
Speaker 4: public I talked to is drinking the Ravens school aid.
7:49
Speaker 3: I think it's a nice team to step back from.
7:52
Speaker 4: Let them hopefully start five hundred or you know, even
7:56
Speaker 4: four and two. I think you could get potentially better
7:59
Speaker 4: odds here this team. So yeah, I'm I'm happy to
8:03
Speaker 4: be patient on them, just because what an insane start
8:06
Speaker 4: to your season, Like you're literally going through the three
8:09
Speaker 4: arguably the three best teams without not including the Eagles
8:12
Speaker 4: in all football. So yeah, it's it's tough where I remember,
8:16
Speaker 4: like months ago, I almost got sucked in right away
8:18
Speaker 4: betting than Week one at the Buffalo Bills because it's like, oh,
8:21
Speaker 4: it's Lamar.
8:21
Speaker 3: As a dog. Me and Chad talk all the time.
8:23
Speaker 4: If Lamar is under three, he's like twenty and three
8:26
Speaker 4: against the spread something crazy when he's an underdog or
8:30
Speaker 4: under three. So it's it's a tough start to the season.
8:34
Speaker 4: But we just talked about there. I think they're number
8:37
Speaker 4: two or number three in my model. They are insanely talented.
8:42
Speaker 4: People want to bitch and moan that. You know, we
8:45
Speaker 4: disrespect Lamar every year and we're too low on Lamar.
8:48
Speaker 4: He ain't the number one guy, he ain't the number
8:50
Speaker 4: two guy, and to me, he ain't the number three
8:52
Speaker 4: guy because he just does not choping the playoffs and
8:54
Speaker 4: he has these turnovers, which again last year he fixed it.
8:57
Speaker 4: I think he only had four or five turnovers all season.
9:00
Speaker 4: He has two inexplicable never happens Lamar turner against.
9:04
Speaker 3: That Bills team. So that's that's the issue people.
9:06
Speaker 4: I think you guys are all too much in denial
9:08
Speaker 4: of shifting the blame where it has to be shifted
9:11
Speaker 4: on the Lamar like he has the team around him.
9:13
Speaker 4: They've supported him, they've gone out, they've gotten no weapons.
9:16
Speaker 4: They went out and got Derrick Henry. Like Chet said,
9:18
Speaker 4: we joked about Hopkins. Yes he's not a game changer,
9:22
Speaker 4: but it's a cog in the machine.
9:23
Speaker 3: Like you few of him.
9:24
Speaker 4: As your third receiver, bying Zay Flowers. You know, Isaiah
9:27
Speaker 4: likely should be backed by week two or three. Him
9:30
Speaker 4: and Mark Andrews. Those are two really good tight ends.
9:32
Speaker 4: So yeah, people can tell I'm hyped up about this team.
9:35
Speaker 4: It's just be patient. I just think that started the
9:37
Speaker 4: season is so brutal. Super Bowl six plus six hundred
9:41
Speaker 4: and fifty, come on, there's no value in betting that
9:44
Speaker 4: right now, So to me, I have no bet on
9:46
Speaker 4: them when total wise, divisional wise, I would.
9:49
Speaker 3: Say, just be patient.
9:50
Speaker 4: If you want to throw their division and win the
9:51
Speaker 4: other teams and parlays, I got an issue with that,
9:54
Speaker 4: But betting it's straight. I just I can't do it
9:57
Speaker 4: with this team in this division, just because it's it's
9:59
Speaker 4: gonna be better value to me by the time it
10:00
Speaker 4: gets their bye week.
10:02
Speaker 2: You just mentioned the Bengals.
10:05
Speaker 1: I have nothing more to say about the Ravens other
10:07
Speaker 1: than what you said, like love them. My final note
10:10
Speaker 1: in sort of my notes in the script is their
10:13
Speaker 1: schedule is fucking brutal, and so it's a hard way
10:17
Speaker 1: to start the year. The Bengals, meanwhile, super interesting value
10:22
Speaker 1: to me, probably not in the way people expect because
10:25
Speaker 1: of how much I love Joe Burrow.
10:29
Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that
10:32
Speaker 3: they started it, with a die hard commitment. The Bengals
10:37
Speaker 3: battle tenaciously.
10:39
Speaker 1: Division plus two, sixty, Conference plus eight fifty, Super Bowl
10:43
Speaker 1: eighteen one win total nine and a half. You downgraded
10:46
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow out of your top four QBS entirely right
10:50
Speaker 1: to me. The management continues to find ways to completely
10:56
Speaker 1: kill any mojo and just put more more obstacles in
11:01
Speaker 1: front of Joe Burrow, who it's very possible he goes
11:06
Speaker 1: down as like Dan Marino, where he's got an incredible
11:12
Speaker 1: career and has that early Super Bowl appearance and never
11:16
Speaker 1: gets back because I think the franchise is so incompetent,
11:22
Speaker 1: and we saw it on display this entire offseason. They
11:26
Speaker 1: draft Shamar Stewart, then they put an unprecedented clause in
11:32
Speaker 1: his contract that he cannot sign, which leads to acrimony
11:38
Speaker 1: and a bad holdout for a guy, by the way,
11:41
Speaker 1: who had zero production in college. They basically reached in
11:46
Speaker 1: the first round for a combine Warrior. They just drafted
11:50
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five version of Mike Mamula, And I
11:55
Speaker 1: will go back to what an NFL scout said to
11:58
Speaker 1: me who I spoke to after or the draft, and
12:02
Speaker 1: his comment to me was, NFL or college coaches, they
12:06
Speaker 1: want to win two. They're not going to build schemes
12:10
Speaker 1: that don't include their best player unless that best player
12:16
Speaker 1: is not good enough to produce. Shamar Stewart was the
12:19
Speaker 1: best talent, the best athlete on that Texas and team
12:23
Speaker 1: and did not produce. Meanwhile, the guy who is supposed
12:28
Speaker 1: to be on the opposite side and getting some relief
12:30
Speaker 1: from Shamar Stewart, Trey Hendrickson, Like they've gone out of
12:34
Speaker 1: their way to alienate their best defensive player on a really,
12:38
Speaker 1: really bad defense, because that defense is why they missed
12:42
Speaker 1: the playoffs last year. And I don't think they've done
12:46
Speaker 1: anything to sort of immediately fix it other than adding
12:51
Speaker 1: Al Golden, the defensive coordinator who had been with Notre Dame.
12:54
Speaker 2: So that's terrible. Simon. The last thing, their offensive line.
12:59
Speaker 1: Got worse, and it was already the worst offensive line
13:03
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So they're not protecting their quarterback, they're
13:06
Speaker 1: not doing anything to get the opposing offenses off the field,
13:10
Speaker 1: and they're not doing anything to help their players find
13:14
Speaker 1: some peace and happiness with the franchise, give me the
13:19
Speaker 1: under nine and a half.
13:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know it's bad when Chad goes and they
13:25
Speaker 4: did out at Al Golden, Like who the fuck cares
13:28
Speaker 4: about Al Golden?
13:29
Speaker 2: That's what I mean, Like I got to have some talent.
13:31
Speaker 3: Brutal, Yeah, brutal.
13:33
Speaker 4: So it's like they're they're literally it's as if they
13:36
Speaker 4: got someone slashed in with a sword and they literally
13:38
Speaker 4: put the smallest band aid possible on that gash, and
13:41
Speaker 4: it's like, what the fuck happened?
13:42
Speaker 2: Like how did they how did they every? Like as
13:46
Speaker 2: I did the research, and like we all have our biases.
13:48
Speaker 2: Sorry to cut you off, but like we always get so.
13:52
Speaker 1: Enamored with quarterbacks and think they can, to your point,
13:56
Speaker 1: band aid over everything. And we love Joe Burrow, but
14:00
Speaker 1: you were ahead of this, Like this team is just
14:03
Speaker 1: not good enough to do anything, even keep Joe Burrow upright,
14:09
Speaker 1: it's just not going to be enough to have Joe Burrow,
14:11
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase and t Higgins.
14:12
Speaker 2: Like it's just not there.
14:14
Speaker 4: And this team is the definition of wins or a
14:16
Speaker 4: QB stat because without Joe Burrow they're getting maybe two wins,
14:22
Speaker 4: three wins. So Joe he will carry this corpse of
14:26
Speaker 4: a team to eight nine, ten wins, and if you
14:29
Speaker 4: want to take that over nine and a half, go ahead.
14:31
Speaker 4: But to me, I have him at eight wins, so
14:33
Speaker 4: I have him a full game.
14:34
Speaker 3: And a half below it.
14:35
Speaker 4: And you know, god damn, we're people mad that I
14:38
Speaker 4: had Joe Burrow number six as my quarterback rankings.
14:40
Speaker 3: And I get it, like no.
14:42
Speaker 4: One's doubting the talent level of Joe Burrow. But you
14:46
Speaker 4: can see, like some of those sacks he takes, that's
14:49
Speaker 4: on Joe, And I heard people complain, well, he did
14:51
Speaker 4: show up. Look at his stats against the Chiefs and
14:54
Speaker 4: the Egles, all these teams last year.
14:55
Speaker 3: You need to go back and watch the games.
14:57
Speaker 4: You need to go back and watch that Chiefs game
14:59
Speaker 4: where it's thirty and six, there's two minutes left. He
15:02
Speaker 4: has the ball and if he gets our first down,
15:04
Speaker 4: the game is basically over and he misses the hot
15:06
Speaker 4: read and he takes a really bad sack on a
15:08
Speaker 4: very easy to read blitz coming to him when he's
15:11
Speaker 4: going against that Baltimore Ravens team, which you know, that
15:15
Speaker 4: game haunts me last year in this wall turnover again
15:18
Speaker 4: that falls onto Joe. So it's once again coming to
15:21
Speaker 4: the season.
15:21
Speaker 3: I get why.
15:22
Speaker 4: People are so in love with Joe Burrow and the
15:24
Speaker 4: weapons he has him. It's a fantasy football team. This again.
15:27
Speaker 4: The joke is this team is constructed by a thirteen
15:29
Speaker 4: year old. Like they were like, Okay, let's pay t Higgins,
15:33
Speaker 4: let's pay Chase, let's pay our quarterback, and then let's
15:35
Speaker 4: not pay anybody else. Let's just go cheap on every
15:39
Speaker 4: other position, and you know, let our best safety walk.
15:43
Speaker 4: Chat just talk about letting Trey Hendricks walk. I can't
15:45
Speaker 4: believe it's real. I really can't believe they didn't pay
15:47
Speaker 4: Trey where. You know he has been opened that he's
15:51
Speaker 4: he loves the Bengals. He grew up a Bengals fan,
15:54
Speaker 4: and he was willing to take a discount to stay.
15:57
Speaker 4: He just wants guaranteed money, which you should pay them.
16:00
Speaker 4: You should pay him that guaranteed money because the splits
16:02
Speaker 4: between him on the field and off the field for
16:04
Speaker 4: your defense is so extreme.
16:07
Speaker 3: But they're not.
16:08
Speaker 4: They're just very stubborn and it's bad ownership. And their
16:12
Speaker 4: window was that Joe Burrow rookie year because you had
16:15
Speaker 4: the stud quarterback and his number one receiver and paid
16:19
Speaker 4: them nothing. You could have paid the rest of your team,
16:21
Speaker 4: and you let guys walk. You didn't pay certain players.
16:25
Speaker 3: So yeah, this is to me a very don dumb
16:29
Speaker 3: Joe public bet.
16:30
Speaker 4: If you've taken any positive position on this Bengals teams,
16:34
Speaker 4: you clearly never looked into what their defense was going
16:36
Speaker 4: to be. You clearly overthought what their quarterback position is.
16:40
Speaker 4: Where I just said it, like again, it doesn't sound
16:43
Speaker 4: great to you. Joe Burrow is a top five, top
16:45
Speaker 4: six quarterback to many people.
16:47
Speaker 3: That is very impressive for this kid.
16:50
Speaker 4: But we talk all the time, you have to build
16:52
Speaker 4: it out around them, and they failed them on the offensive.
16:54
Speaker 3: Line, they failed him on the defense.
16:55
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm on their under I'm on their plus
16:58
Speaker 4: one eighty five to not make the playoffs. And would
17:02
Speaker 4: I be shocked if they can back toward the way
17:03
Speaker 4: And no, because we just talked about Joe Burrows one
17:05
Speaker 4: of the best quarterbacks on football.
17:07
Speaker 3: But how are they going to hold leads?
17:10
Speaker 4: They won't I'm telling you people, they won't be able
17:12
Speaker 4: to stop anybody. And Joe, just like he did last year,
17:15
Speaker 4: we'll try to do too much and he won't make mistakes.
17:17
Speaker 3: So we saw it last year.
17:19
Speaker 4: As long as they play bad teams below five hundred,
17:21
Speaker 4: they were dominant. Soon as they played a team above
17:23
Speaker 4: five hundred or a playoff team, they got rolled.
17:27
Speaker 3: And that's just what it's going to be like this season.
17:28
Speaker 3: So you know, they could get fluky.
17:30
Speaker 4: Wins here and there, they could get to this win
17:32
Speaker 4: till they could back their way into the playoffs, but you.
17:35
Speaker 3: Know, super Bowl winning their.
17:36
Speaker 4: Conference, like they just they feel so far below the Chiefs,
17:41
Speaker 4: the Bills, the Ravens. Hell, you can even throw the
17:44
Speaker 4: Broncos in there if you want. I just I just
17:46
Speaker 4: cannot get there with the Cincinnati team. So I know
17:48
Speaker 4: it sucks to be doom and gloom on them. We
17:50
Speaker 4: both love Joe and it's a really fun team, but
17:53
Speaker 4: their window feels like it's closed and it's going to
17:57
Speaker 4: be a three to four year rebuild because they've failed
18:00
Speaker 4: on so many different levels with that offensive line, that defense.
18:03
Speaker 3: So yeah, again, it's it's so negative right now.
18:06
Speaker 4: But of all the teams's division, they feel like, I mean,
18:10
Speaker 4: we're gonna talk about Pittsburgh in a second, but they
18:11
Speaker 4: feel like they're a team whose window is closed and
18:14
Speaker 4: they're going to need to rebuild for three four years,
18:15
Speaker 4: and that's that's exactly wh we don't want to be
18:18
Speaker 4: in this division that you know right now, the Ravens
18:21
Speaker 4: just feel like five years ahead of them.
18:23
Speaker 1: So you mentioned the schedule, and I thought you you
18:27
Speaker 1: pointed it out brilliantly.
18:29
Speaker 2: They got bad teams.
18:31
Speaker 1: They got the Browns, Yeah, they got the Jets, they
18:34
Speaker 1: got the Jags, who are an unknown quantity right now.
18:39
Speaker 1: Every other game on their roster because they've got the
18:42
Speaker 1: NFC North feels like a fifty to fifty proposition between
18:47
Speaker 1: having to play each of their teams twice, especially the Ravens,
18:53
Speaker 1: and having to play all of the NFC North teams,
18:58
Speaker 1: those are six really hard games.
19:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, for this team, I can't find the wins.
19:04
Speaker 2: I can't find.
19:05
Speaker 3: I can't find. People are giving me about having no
19:07
Speaker 3: eight wins, that's being nice.
19:08
Speaker 2: I feel like I can't fight the guaranteed wins.
19:10
Speaker 1: Like in every schedule elite teams, you can find the
19:14
Speaker 1: guaranteed wins.
19:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't.
19:16
Speaker 1: Find the games where I'm like, oh, yeah, the Bengals
19:19
Speaker 1: should easily win that game in any of those except
19:23
Speaker 1: for the Browns.
19:23
Speaker 2: And the Jets. That's fair, that's it, But that's.
19:27
Speaker 1: Not when you want to be betting on a team
19:29
Speaker 1: to get to double digit wins.
19:32
Speaker 2: I'm glad we're on the same side on that.
19:33
Speaker 1: I didn't know which way you were going to go
19:34
Speaker 1: because I know you're a little down on Burrow, but
19:37
Speaker 1: you know, we don't talk about this, so.
19:38
Speaker 4: I never yeah me being down, Bros. I have them
19:40
Speaker 4: at number six my top ten quarterbacks.
19:44
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20:24
Speaker 2: The Pittsburg Stealers.
20:27
Speaker 3: Ah I hit that horn, Babe, Let's day.
20:28
Speaker 1: It Stealers plus five point fifty to win the Division
20:33
Speaker 1: twenty to one to win the Conference super Bowl forty one.
20:36
Speaker 1: Win total eight and a half. Feels like we're getting
20:38
Speaker 1: a Mike Tomlin balance at the eight and a half.
20:41
Speaker 1: Their defense is great if if everyone is fat and
20:47
Speaker 1: happy right and right now, they're not.
20:51
Speaker 2: TJ.
20:51
Speaker 1: Watt, who by the way, is thirty one years old,
20:53
Speaker 1: has a new deal. Cam Hayward a hold in only
20:58
Speaker 1: been sort of doing light prack just work, but has
21:00
Speaker 1: said he'll sit out games. Got Annon Rodgers obviously, who
21:05
Speaker 1: has not been Anaron Rodgers for years. Their greatest asset
21:10
Speaker 1: is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins. And
21:16
Speaker 1: that's why I think the win total is even at
21:19
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Like otherwise, if you judge this
21:22
Speaker 1: just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half.
21:29
Speaker 1: I think, like if I were betting this team, I
21:34
Speaker 1: probably wait until the second half of the year and
21:37
Speaker 1: see if I can get and adjusted under because the
21:40
Speaker 1: first half of the year Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahowse Colts
21:44
Speaker 1: like not terrible, but the second half of the year
21:47
Speaker 1: they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions gets harder. What do
21:53
Speaker 1: you think of this?
21:54
Speaker 4: Yeah, just an interesting build team like you talk about
21:57
Speaker 4: the defense. I think it's one hundred and six two
22:00
Speaker 4: million that they've spent on their defense, and you know,
22:03
Speaker 4: being an Eagles fan, I think we're at maybe seventy million.
22:07
Speaker 4: So it's like, are they ninety million dollars better than
22:10
Speaker 4: the Eagles defense? Probably not, But that's how it is
22:13
Speaker 4: when Chad Tuckler, you're paying older guys big contracts, and
22:16
Speaker 4: you know, Cam Hayward, I'd be ripping my fucking hair
22:20
Speaker 4: out if I work in that front office.
22:21
Speaker 3: Who the fuck does this guy think?
22:23
Speaker 4: He is signing a new deal last year now coming
22:25
Speaker 4: in a year later, being all pissy, He's saying I
22:28
Speaker 4: out played that contract the year before.
22:30
Speaker 3: Not getting weird, right, bizarre?
22:32
Speaker 4: There must be something else because everything you've ever read
22:36
Speaker 4: about Cam is he's like the man. He's a football
22:39
Speaker 4: guys team first, Yeah, just the man. But you know
22:42
Speaker 4: what is he thirty six thirty seven? He gets it
22:45
Speaker 4: where he's like, that was probably as good as it
22:48
Speaker 4: gets last year, and if I can get one more payday,
22:52
Speaker 4: I might as well try it and try to be
22:54
Speaker 4: a piece of shit about it. Where it's everyone else
22:56
Speaker 4: on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ.
22:59
Speaker 4: We've signed all these guys, I mean even like even
23:02
Speaker 4: their kickers having some drama about money. So it's like,
23:05
Speaker 4: what is going on with Pittsburgh. They try to be
23:07
Speaker 4: good and pay their guys, and now all these other
23:09
Speaker 4: players are thrown on their face being like I want more,
23:12
Speaker 4: want I deserve more.
23:14
Speaker 3: It's tough.
23:15
Speaker 4: And again, this is another team that I wanted to
23:17
Speaker 4: be on them as a sneaky team in this division
23:19
Speaker 4: where it's like, you know, everyone's talking Ravens.
23:22
Speaker 3: Bengals, Steelers, if Rogers.
23:25
Speaker 4: You know, again, as much as people left him for dead,
23:28
Speaker 4: he did look so much better that second half of
23:30
Speaker 4: the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing
23:33
Speaker 4: off his back foot, where.
23:35
Speaker 3: For the first eight nine weeks he did not do that.
23:37
Speaker 3: He was very timid. And you know, we know the deal.
23:41
Speaker 4: This is not Brady going to the Bucks. Rogers is
23:45
Speaker 4: not built that way. He doesn't play the same style.
23:48
Speaker 4: And you know, this is the guy that relied a
23:50
Speaker 4: lot on his athleticism and that's gone. So now we're
23:54
Speaker 4: sitting with a watch at a bottom, you know, not
23:58
Speaker 4: top twenty, but maybe top twenty five quarterback. Like I'm
24:02
Speaker 4: trying to think where I even fit in Rogers now.
24:04
Speaker 4: And when I model this team out, my model doesn't
24:08
Speaker 4: get the Tomlin effect.
24:09
Speaker 3: You just nailed it.
24:10
Speaker 4: Like my model has him at seven wins, so I
24:11
Speaker 4: have him at a game and a half below it.
24:13
Speaker 4: But a computer doesn't understand that Tomlin. It's he's a glitch.
24:18
Speaker 4: There's nothing like in coaching wise, like this guy just
24:21
Speaker 4: wille So what's.
24:22
Speaker 1: The value of that though, Like to me, I think
24:25
Speaker 1: they're giving him. You say they're at seven. I had
24:27
Speaker 1: it at seven and a half, and I think they're
24:29
Speaker 1: getting an extra game just because of Tomlin.
24:33
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean if you think Rabel's worth two and
24:35
Speaker 4: a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you, then Chad, Like,
24:38
Speaker 4: as much as I want to give respect of Rabel,
24:41
Speaker 4: Tomlin's that dude. And I know he doesn't have the success,
24:44
Speaker 4: but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash
24:48
Speaker 4: at the quarterback position and he makes it work because
24:51
Speaker 4: he just wills this team special teams, defense.
24:53
Speaker 3: Whatever it is. So we know the deal.
24:55
Speaker 4: Like this team, I think you just nailed it too,
24:57
Speaker 4: where it's like you want to take a position later
25:00
Speaker 4: and take their under. That was the move last year
25:02
Speaker 4: and I hate that I missed it where we all
25:04
Speaker 4: kind of started drinking the kool aid on you know,
25:07
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson because he came in he was so dynamic
25:09
Speaker 4: and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But
25:12
Speaker 4: we kept saying ourselves, the number doesn't back it up.
25:14
Speaker 4: When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not it's just luck.
25:17
Speaker 4: Like his fifty to fifty balls deep downfield. Eventually it's
25:20
Speaker 4: gonna go the other way. And I think they went.
25:22
Speaker 4: I don't know if it was five straight games. They
25:23
Speaker 4: just got worked. At the end of the season, they
25:25
Speaker 4: couldn't cover either. So I look at this team that
25:28
Speaker 4: if they just have a stable position player and Aaron
25:32
Speaker 4: Rodgers the quarterback position and he can get the ball
25:34
Speaker 4: to DK and they can make it work offensively, and
25:37
Speaker 4: you know this rookie of the draft can be the
25:39
Speaker 4: number one running back. Great, But like I have so
25:41
Speaker 4: many questions about their offensive line. I have so many
25:43
Speaker 4: questions about their run block and all the offensive line.
25:46
Speaker 4: I just I can't get it get there and be excited.
25:48
Speaker 4: So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.
25:52
Speaker 4: But yeah, like as we sit here right now, this
25:54
Speaker 4: is another game where It's like I have two other teams.
25:56
Speaker 4: I rather bet heavier on their win total the Bango's
25:59
Speaker 4: under much rather bet that, and then we're about to
26:01
Speaker 4: talk Cleveland.
26:02
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm just I'm.
26:04
Speaker 4: Uninspired by Pittsburgh and I feel bad for their fans
26:06
Speaker 4: where it's just you're just stuck in this middle, floating
26:09
Speaker 4: around position and they basically they burned the boats, Chad.
26:13
Speaker 4: Like I just talked about the Bengals missed their window,
26:15
Speaker 4: this is Pittsburgh's window. Like they have a very old,
26:19
Speaker 4: expensive defense that maybe one or two years here left,
26:23
Speaker 4: Like you literally went out and got Sleigh. You know,
26:27
Speaker 4: I love Sleigh obviously him and Ramsey. Yes, that could
26:31
Speaker 4: be good cornerbacks or could be two dudes way over
26:34
Speaker 4: the hill that are about to get absolutely cooked by
26:36
Speaker 4: almost every team in their divisions wide receivers. So that's
26:39
Speaker 4: that's the fear here is They're just a very old
26:41
Speaker 4: team with a lot of guys who could get a
26:42
Speaker 4: lot of injuries. So I just I can't get excited again.
26:45
Speaker 4: Four to one Super Bowl odds. Who's betting that? Who's
26:48
Speaker 4: betting Pittsburgh at four to one thinking they're gonna hold
26:51
Speaker 4: up through the whole year in the AFC. I just
26:53
Speaker 4: it's very bizarre with their team. I feel like back
26:54
Speaker 4: in the day they would have been sixty or fifty
26:56
Speaker 4: five to one. The books are just giving U shit
26:59
Speaker 4: odds in the Super Bowl, So yeah, no better e other
27:01
Speaker 4: than the win total.
27:02
Speaker 2: Here feels very.
27:05
Speaker 1: Washington team formerly known as Mid nineteen nineties late nineteen nineties,
27:15
Speaker 1: signing big name players who have long track records, hoping
27:21
Speaker 1: that is the key.
27:23
Speaker 2: When does this ever work out?
27:25
Speaker 1: When do you ever sign a forty plus year old quarterback,
27:29
Speaker 1: give up draft picks for a always disgruntled, high maintenance receiver,
27:38
Speaker 1: and then go all in on two cornerbacks who have
27:42
Speaker 1: been bouncing around in the latter stages of their career
27:45
Speaker 1: because they might be in the latter stages of their career.
27:50
Speaker 1: This has never worked in the history of football.
27:54
Speaker 2: This has never worked.
27:55
Speaker 4: That's why they just got to hope on Tomlin, Like
27:58
Speaker 4: that's the whole team is just built around Tomlin. It
28:00
Speaker 4: feels like where it's just you need to make all
28:02
Speaker 4: these personalities work, and it's tough.
28:04
Speaker 1: I feel like that's not a recipe for success in
28:06
Speaker 1: the NFL. Last I checked, you actually have to have
28:09
Speaker 1: good players.
28:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's just it's brutal.
28:12
Speaker 1: Hey, speaking of good players, how about those Cleveland Browns, cleve.
28:16
Speaker 3: Len Rots, cleveln Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks.
28:23
Speaker 1: Thirty to one to win the division. I had to
28:27
Speaker 1: check that three times. There are one hundred to one
28:29
Speaker 1: to win the conference, two hundred to one to win
28:31
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl win total four and a half tied
28:34
Speaker 1: with the Giants for the longest division odds in the NFL.
28:40
Speaker 2: It's a tricky one.
28:40
Speaker 1: It's actually similar to the Giants, right because their defense
28:43
Speaker 1: is so good, especially the defensive line. When you and
28:45
Speaker 1: I talked about the Giants during the nfca's preview, like,
28:49
Speaker 1: we talked about their defensive line and they're how good
28:53
Speaker 1: it is, especially with Dexter Lawrence. The Browns obviously have
28:58
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett. We have a bias to the defense, but
29:03
Speaker 1: last year we did get caught a couple of times,
29:05
Speaker 1: like believing their defense would be good enough to keep
29:08
Speaker 1: games close, and then the offense was just so incompetent
29:13
Speaker 1: there was no saving this team. So, like Joe Flacco
29:17
Speaker 1: is going to be the starting quarterback, I don't know
29:21
Speaker 1: that I have more confidence in this team. Because he's
29:25
Speaker 1: doing that right, Like, can they beat the Jets and
29:28
Speaker 1: the Titans? Those are the games that like would maybe
29:31
Speaker 1: you can circle them as wins, But I don't know, man,
29:36
Speaker 1: you seem to have a strong opinion here.
29:39
Speaker 4: I fucking love this Browns team, give me that over
29:42
Speaker 4: four and a half.
29:42
Speaker 3: I love this team so much.
29:44
Speaker 4: And it's another team that people just they're out on them, right,
29:48
Speaker 4: it's a gross team.
29:50
Speaker 3: They got the QB drama right. They drafted these two
29:53
Speaker 3: young kids. Even Chad was.
29:54
Speaker 4: Like, no, it'll be Shador starting where I knew all along,
29:57
Speaker 4: It's gonna be Joe fucking Flacco. Man, it's just what
30:00
Speaker 4: he does. Baby, He's just the contonment pro doesn't say much.
30:04
Speaker 4: He's my favorite line he had where they were like, yeah,
30:06
Speaker 4: you're gonna mentor these guys and help.
30:07
Speaker 3: Them out, and he goes, no, I'm this is my job.
30:09
Speaker 3: I'm here to win.
30:10
Speaker 4: They want to copy me and watch how I go
30:12
Speaker 4: about my business. That's how I mentor them. I'll show
30:15
Speaker 4: on what it's like to be a professional quarterback. Was
30:18
Speaker 4: he thirty nine years old? Thirty eight years old?
30:20
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's crazy that Joe is still in
30:23
Speaker 3: the league, still a.
30:24
Speaker 4: Starter, and the disrespect of this team is getting because
30:28
Speaker 4: last year they had nothing at the quarterback position.
30:31
Speaker 3: Joe is not nothing like.
30:33
Speaker 4: Yes, you could say he was bad last year with
30:36
Speaker 4: that Colts team, that to me was so much dysfunction
30:39
Speaker 4: within the organization, where the Browns you could say they
30:42
Speaker 4: had this sicks function.
30:44
Speaker 3: I look at this. Fanski is a great coach.
30:45
Speaker 4: I think he plays within a system that when a
30:47
Speaker 4: quarterback can run his system, it's a good functioning system.
30:50
Speaker 4: And their their offensive line isn't as bad as people
30:52
Speaker 4: think it is. And Jerry Judy to me, is a
30:55
Speaker 4: great super receiver, especially fantasy football this year.
30:58
Speaker 3: This is a deep threat.
30:59
Speaker 4: Think he might have fourteen hundred yards last year when
31:01
Speaker 4: they again they had nothing at the quarterback.
31:04
Speaker 3: Position last year.
31:05
Speaker 4: So Jerry Judy a guy who was a number one
31:07
Speaker 4: pick that Denver up offloaded and he went to the
31:10
Speaker 4: Browns and you've seen the talent spark. You've not heard
31:13
Speaker 4: a single thing about Jerry ju this offseeas you know why,
31:15
Speaker 4: because he doesn't fuck around and do stupid shit in
31:17
Speaker 4: the offseason. He just does work. And he's coming to
31:20
Speaker 4: training camp and he's put in work and apparently him
31:21
Speaker 4: in Flacco had a great connection. So to me, you know,
31:24
Speaker 4: they've had a lot of the legal issues with this
31:26
Speaker 4: rookie running.
31:27
Speaker 3: Back they drafted.
31:28
Speaker 4: It looks like it worked out that this kid is
31:30
Speaker 4: going to be okay and be able to play football. Sure,
31:32
Speaker 4: it might get suspended four games because you know, he
31:35
Speaker 4: did some horrible shit in the NFL. Even though he's
31:37
Speaker 4: not legally getting charged, the NFL might still punish him.
31:40
Speaker 4: They still have other guys they drafted. There's other kids.
31:42
Speaker 4: Sampson as a rookie. They have Ford, another running back
31:45
Speaker 4: they could put in there. Okay, so there's our weapons there.
31:48
Speaker 4: And now you think about their defense, Chad just nailed it,
31:51
Speaker 4: like this defense might.
31:52
Speaker 3: Be really good.
31:54
Speaker 4: Like their question for their secondary, they've added pieces of
31:57
Speaker 4: this offseason to the secondary to try to improve it.
31:59
Speaker 4: And my favorite thing of reading about Eagles joint practice
32:03
Speaker 4: with the Browns was you literally can't practice when Miles
32:06
Speaker 4: Garrett's on the field because he ruined every single play.
32:10
Speaker 4: You can never run a play with him on the field.
32:12
Speaker 4: And didn't matter when they had Lane Johnson out there
32:13
Speaker 4: in Malata, he was beating those guys And a lot
32:16
Speaker 4: of joke they were like, hey, Lota, can you take
32:17
Speaker 4: anything away from playing against a guy like Miles Garrett
32:20
Speaker 4: goes no, because he does think that no other human
32:23
Speaker 4: on this planet can do that. Plays football like no
32:25
Speaker 4: one else can throw me back five feet with one
32:28
Speaker 4: arm while spinning the other way and going around me.
32:30
Speaker 4: So it's like, you have the guys up front again.
32:33
Speaker 4: In the draft, they went out and tried to draft
32:36
Speaker 4: guys on the front line again. They traded down to
32:38
Speaker 4: get more equity for next year because they're they're what
32:41
Speaker 4: the general public things, right. Their a team that views
32:43
Speaker 4: them as being a bad team. The front office doesn't
32:45
Speaker 4: have high hopes for this team. But to me, that's
32:48
Speaker 4: the type teams I like. Were inside guys like Flack
32:51
Speaker 4: when other guys they believe in this team.
32:52
Speaker 3: So there's another team.
32:54
Speaker 4: Where it's like, Okay, if you want to bet the
32:57
Speaker 4: win total, I get it, but it's four and a half.
33:01
Speaker 4: Like they can find four and a half wins with
33:03
Speaker 4: a veteran quarterback and a veteran defense like this and
33:05
Speaker 4: a good head coach. Like they're even Week one against Cincinnati,
33:09
Speaker 4: I think they're five and a half or six point dog.
33:12
Speaker 4: We've seen Cincinnati come out slow, and I know they've
33:14
Speaker 4: tried to be playing guys in spring training and so
33:16
Speaker 4: they're up to speed.
33:17
Speaker 3: Joe Flackoll might throw for.
33:18
Speaker 4: Three hundred and fifty yards against this defense, like they're
33:21
Speaker 4: this might end up being a shootout, and who has
33:23
Speaker 4: the better defense by far, it's going to be this
33:25
Speaker 4: Brown team even get stops, and I feel like a
33:27
Speaker 4: lot of games this year they will be able to
33:29
Speaker 4: get stops defensively and be able to move the ball offensively.
33:31
Speaker 4: So I know it's gross and it's ugly looking, but
33:34
Speaker 4: I really like the four and a half And I
33:36
Speaker 4: can't be what I'm saying to do it, but you
33:38
Speaker 4: have to because it's thirty to one.
33:39
Speaker 3: You have to throw a dollar on this division A
33:41
Speaker 3: lots like you have to do.
33:43
Speaker 4: It where there is a world where Lamar, who plays
33:46
Speaker 4: a very aggressive style, does get banged up. And there
33:49
Speaker 4: is a world where we talked about the Bengals are
33:51
Speaker 4: just not that good of a team in Pittsburgh is
33:53
Speaker 4: maybe a nine win team. The Browns could get there.
33:56
Speaker 4: Like I know, people just don't believe them. It's just
33:58
Speaker 4: hard to squinch your eye and see it. But it's
34:00
Speaker 4: like if you have a good defense. If you have
34:03
Speaker 4: a good offensive line and everyone's healthy, that has such
34:06
Speaker 4: a huge advantage end of the season where so many
34:07
Speaker 4: teams are dealing with injuries and injuries to important positions
34:11
Speaker 4: heading into the season, where the Browns really don't have that,
34:14
Speaker 4: Like all the dramas kind of media made up where
34:18
Speaker 4: Dylan Gabriel and Shador they were never gonna be the starters.
34:21
Speaker 4: They're fighting for that number two jobs. So I just
34:24
Speaker 4: love how it's lined up in position for this Browns team.
34:27
Speaker 4: And you know, it's the fact that it's four and
34:29
Speaker 4: a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total.
34:32
Speaker 4: I'll adjust to take the six and a half and
34:34
Speaker 4: plus two hundred over, Like that's just a fun bet
34:37
Speaker 4: to make where if I think this team's gonna pop,
34:38
Speaker 4: I think they'll pop to that over. So yeah, this
34:41
Speaker 4: is a team that was five and a half. The
34:43
Speaker 4: pros the general public for the most part of bet
34:45
Speaker 4: this down because I think most of them thought it
34:47
Speaker 4: was gonna be Shador or Dylan Gabriel to be the starter.
34:50
Speaker 4: And now that it's Flacco. How can you not love
34:53
Speaker 4: this team at four and a half win total, I
34:55
Speaker 4: love the value. So again, I don't have them grated
34:57
Speaker 4: at like ten wins. I have them five and a
34:59
Speaker 4: half wins, so it's not crazy. But I don't think
35:02
Speaker 4: my computer really understands how important is I have a
35:05
Speaker 4: veteran quarterback like Flaco, with a great offensive mind like Stefanski,
35:08
Speaker 4: and again two years ago, this is a duo that
35:11
Speaker 4: made the playoffs.
35:12
Speaker 3: Like this is a.
35:13
Speaker 4: Taantum that works, and we've seen it work before. So
35:16
Speaker 4: I just think people are too low on this team
35:18
Speaker 4: for all the scars they had last year, where it's
35:21
Speaker 4: a new year and they're not as bad as people perceive.
35:24
Speaker 1: Strong opinion on the Cleveland Browns very strong. It seems
35:29
Speaker 1: like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Brown's over four
35:32
Speaker 1: and a half the Bengals under nine and a half.
35:37
Speaker 2: I also like a Ravens Super Bowl matchup.
35:40
Speaker 1: I think probably like Ravens Lions super Bowl matchup. Bet
35:46
Speaker 1: you know, I'm going to bet Ravens Lions, Ravens Eagles,
35:50
Speaker 1: probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup
35:55
Speaker 1: round robin. Do you have a specific team you would
35:58
Speaker 1: match them with?
36:00
Speaker 3: Don't hate it, you just you know my feeling about
36:02
Speaker 3: playoff golf. Yeah, I know, but I don't mind it.
36:07
Speaker 4: Like again, I've I have done Ravens Eagles, I've done
36:10
Speaker 4: Ravens forty nine ers, I've done Ravens Rams. So I'm
36:14
Speaker 4: with you where it's like as much shit as I
36:15
Speaker 4: like talking about Lamar, it's like paying Manning, payon Manning
36:19
Speaker 4: for seven years, couldn't get out of the shadow of
36:21
Speaker 4: Brady and eventually he breaks through. And it's just it's
36:24
Speaker 4: only a matter of time for josh Alla Lamar as
36:27
Speaker 4: they're in their prime, the talent's there. Can they show
36:30
Speaker 4: up in the playoffs and the biggest moments and live
36:31
Speaker 4: up to it. So I'm with you on bet and
36:33
Speaker 4: Ravens futures. It's like, don't bet them, you know, just
36:36
Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl's plus six fifty.
36:38
Speaker 3: That's a stupid bet. Bet the matchups people.
36:41
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36:47
Speaker 1: Best bets for the twenty twenty five NFL season and
36:51
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37:05
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