Latest / Foul Territory / Keith Law talks breakout candidates, Kevin McGonigle’s call-up, Konnor Griffin & Dylan Crews sent down

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Keith Law talks breakout candidates, Kevin McGonigle’s call-up, Konnor Griffin & Dylan Crews sent down · Foul Territory

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Hey, keep us with us.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: A senior baseball writer for The Athletic Friend of Ours
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: joining us right now on FT Keith. It is great
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: to see articles coming out fast and furious too.
• 0:14
  Speaker 3: How you doing, man?
• 0:15
  Speaker 4: Not good?
• 0:16
  Speaker 5: I'm actually back home after a week in the desert
• 0:19
  Speaker 5: where it was one hundred and eat one day.
• 0:21
  Speaker 4: I think the guy like the heat, and.
• 0:24
  Speaker 5: It is a dry heat that might be above my
• 0:26
  Speaker 5: threshold for actually like working.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Great spot to cook eggs just right on your seat,
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: which we'll.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Get to actually anyway, right.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Anywhere, anything out there, and I want to get to that.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: I do want to start with your breakout candidates column.
• 0:43
  Speaker 4: So let's go there.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: If you can give me a sneak peek, give me
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: a couple of players that stand out and maybe some
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: that have the comments either roaring positively or negatively.
• 0:55
  Speaker 5: No one ever disagrees with when I pick a breakout
• 0:58
  Speaker 5: always why didn't you pick this guy too?
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: I'm not a I have no crystal ball.
• 1:02
  Speaker 5: I promise my history with these breakouts is pretty mixed. Like,
• 1:06
  Speaker 5: I definitely don't claim to any kind of superpowers here.
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: The biggest name was well, I guess literally and figuratively
• 1:14
  Speaker 5: is calculate on with the Royals, who I think is
• 1:16
  Speaker 5: a pretty popular breakout pick.
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: I think all of.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Us who tracked him going back to college and we've
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: talked about him, I think on your show before, he's
• 1:25
  Speaker 5: so much better than what we saw from him last year. Obviously,
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: the power is insane, but he became sort of this
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: weird pull side ground ball hitter.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: In the big leagues last year.
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: And I'm attributing a lot of that to just he
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: was in the big in the majors too soon. He
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: only had about a month in Double A, a month
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: and Triple A maybe a little more than that, and
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: they called him up and he wasn't ready. And some
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: of it is probably just bad luck. He's just never
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: been that bad before. And I see a guy with
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: way too much ability power. It's actually a really good
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: athlete for his size. He's generally had better feel to
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: hit than that, and I think the bar is pretty
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: low for him to be a brain out player. Right
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: If he just hits a little bit, it's going to
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: be twenty five to thirty home runs, and that's going
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: to be you know, impact, whether you're talking about real
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: world or you know, a lot of people read this
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: column for fantasy purposes, so I led with him specifically
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: because I think the upside is so big. And I
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: also just mentioned Shane Boz because he came up in
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: trade this winter and at the time I said, this
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: is a great pit great pickup for the Orioles, because
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: I already thought he was going to break out, and
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: now he goes to a team that's probably going to
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: help him work on some of the pitch design stuff.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: That is like kind of the finishing off of Shane
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: Boz as a pitcher. He's obviously always flashed good stuff,
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: but last year you could see him messing with his
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: arsenal even mid season, and I think just getting him
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: to a pretty consistent pitch mix and another full year
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: of health is probably the key to him stepping forward
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: and becoming an above average starter, maybe even a top
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: of the rotation guy.
• 2:53
  Speaker 6: All Right, one of the guys you have on the
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: list is Evan Carter. Do you feel like we're just
• 2:57
  Speaker 6: going back to twenty twenty three off season going into
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty four because I thought he was going to
• 3:02
  Speaker 6: be Rookie of the Year after what he did in
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: the playoffs, and a precursor is always Oh, this guy
• 3:07
  Speaker 6: controls the strikes and I forget where they called him,
• 3:09
  Speaker 6: like the three to two Carter or something, or full
• 3:11
  Speaker 6: count Carter, something crazy like that. And it's been injuries,
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: it's been inconsistency. What do you see as the breakout
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: and what's the you know, is there is there something
• 3:22
  Speaker 6: we need to look for once he actually starts to
• 3:25
  Speaker 6: break out in the big leagues.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, when he when I first saw him in the minors,
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: I worried, is this guy just passive as he up
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: there just to take take, take, But you really saw
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: that playoff run that Now this is an actual approach.
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: He's getting himself into hitters counts and then he's trying
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: to do damage.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: It's all we ask.
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: It's not actually that complicated, not that it's easy to execute,
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: but in terms of what are we saying hitters should do,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: it's not take just to draw walks. You're trying to
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: get yourself into good situations to drive the ball, and
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: he showed us he could do that.
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: I agree with you.
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: Hells is the number one thing, right, If Evan Carter
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: had already had a full healthy season in the last
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: two years, he's already broken out and I'm not talking
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: about him here. I do think with him, I've seen
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: conflicting things in the press recently. Is he going to
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: play against left eas or is he left EASi or
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: is he just going to platoon? I think he should
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: probably just platoon, unless they're willing to just accept it's
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: a big learning curve when he's batting against the left
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: handed pitcher, but against the right handed pitcher. Look for
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: him to look like he did in twenty twenty three,
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: to get himself headed the account again and to be
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: able to drive the ball, which I think will be
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: another indicator that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: Particularly the back problems are behind you.
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: Can he get into his strength, Can he get into
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: his lower half again and be particularly pulling the ball
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: with some authority.
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: I don't love to lean just.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: On exit blosses, but I do think in his case,
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: it's probably a bit of a clue as to how
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: healthy he is and whether he's trying to compensate for
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: some of the back stuff which I think has affected
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: him the last two years. Where he'd play but his
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: back wasn't one hundred percent and so you weren't seeing
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: the scene kind of at least the base power, if
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: not over the fence power. Then he flashed in twenty three.
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: I think, at least against right handed pitchers, who'll be
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: the twenty twenty three version again against left handed pitchers.
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: At the very least, it's going to take time. He
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: hasn't hit them yet in the big leagues, and he
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: doesn't have a whole lot of experience either.
• 5:16
  Speaker 7: I mean, Evan Carter is one thing, but then you
• 5:18
  Speaker 7: have Kobe Mayo with the Orioles. When do we just
• 5:21
  Speaker 7: decide that maybe these guys are what they've shown so far.
• 5:24
  Speaker 7: It's been a few years for both these guys, as
• 5:26
  Speaker 7: much as we want Mayo and Carter and some of
• 5:28
  Speaker 7: these other guys. Now Kaglione obviously has a smaller sample
• 5:31
  Speaker 7: size than some of these other guys, but these Carter
• 5:34
  Speaker 7: and Mayo have a.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: Little bit bigger of a track record. When do we
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: just say, hey, this is what they are.
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: I used to be more along those lines, think more
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: alone those lines.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: But because of.
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: How much development work is happening behind the scenes, including
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: things like swing changes or drills to work on I'm
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: thinking more hitters here, but to work on tunneling to
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: be able to pick up a pitch tight were a
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: location sooner out of the pitcher's hand, which I think
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: of with Austin Riley, who was flat out bad for
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: a year plus in the majors and then did that
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: work on pitch recognition location recognition and became an All
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: Star after doing that. Spencer Torklssen last year, who I
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: was kind of out at that point. Going to last year,
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: I was like, oh my god, the Torkalsen break again.
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: Are we doing this again? Because it was five years
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: since he'd been drafted, I think three years in the
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: big leagues at that point, and it hadn't happened. In
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: both Carter and Mayo's case, there's been so much interrupted
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: playing time they're up, they're down, or Carter's case it
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: was the injured list. Mayo's case there was a demotion
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: or getting him moved around multiple positions. I put Mayo
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: on the list. He had a really good spring training.
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: He's hitting the ballhard again. Sure it looks like he's
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: going to get consistent playing time. And that has been
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: my thing with him since they first called him up,
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: is call him up and and tell him, look, this
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: is your job for two three hundred at bats. You're
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: not going to the miners after it, oh for four tomorrow,
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: because a lot of time it looked like that's how
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: he was hitting. And having seeing him all the way
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: up through the miners low A all the way up
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: some at least your double leg, that's not who he is.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: He is not a tentative hitter. He's not defensive, he's offensive.
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: He's really trying to put the ball in play, get
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: it in the air, get it over the fence.
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: We didn't see enough of that in the majors.
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: And I think if he just gets consistent playing time
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: and a consistent position, we'll see that version of Mayo
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: in the big leagues.
• 7:24
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• 7:26
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• 8:25
  Speaker 6: Well, I have another breakout star because they the news
• 8:28
  Speaker 6: just broke. Robert Murray just broke that Kevin mcgonagal will
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: make the opening day roster for the Tigers. So there's
• 8:35
  Speaker 6: there's your breakout star. What are we nice as non
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: Tigers fans, as non minor league prospect fans, supposed to
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: look for and from this PA native.
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: In fact, when I met McGonagall at the Futures Game
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: last year, asked him the most important question.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: I just said, go Berts, he's absolutely so.
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: You know he's going to be a star because he's
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: got his priorities in place he can hit, he had really,
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: really hit. He is one of the best pure hitting
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: prospects of the last ten years. He's got exceptional command
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: of the strike zone. He puts the ball in play
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: on a line a ton. It's a really great swing
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: for just hard contact that is going to translate into
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: some power, even though he's not the biggest guy. But
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: because he's hitting it so hard and consistently putting the
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: ball in the air, he's gonna end up getting to
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: his fifteen to twenty homers. What I really expect from
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: him in this short term, as much as you can
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: predict anything any rookie's gonna do, I think he'll put
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: the ball in play a ton and be able to
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: hit for average. I may it'd be a ton of
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: power right away. He's probably gonna be more swing and
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: miss than we've ever seen from him before, just because
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: big league pitching is that good. But I believe very
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: strongly in the hit tool. I'll be curious to see
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: how his defense looks. When I saw him in high school,
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: I thought this guy's definitely moving to second base. He's
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: still playing shortstop. Scouts I talked to who've seen him
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: a lot more than I have over the last couple
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: of years. Say he's got a chance to stay at
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: the position, and if he does stay there, he's obviously
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: way more valuable and helps the Tigers because that's the
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: biggest hole they had in their lineup was at shortstop,
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: So they really needed McGonagall to step forward and grab
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: that job, and I think he did. If he produces
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: like I expected the plate and can just play competent
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: defense at shortstop, they're probably two wins better off just
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: from that one edition.
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: Most of these guys in your list, they're young guys
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: that are looking to have breakouts. Yes, a guy like
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: Kevin McGonagall, where do you think most successfully the Tigers
• 10:26
  Speaker 6: can implement him into their lineup. Everyone talks about the defense,
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: but in the lineup does he a player like this?
• 10:33
  Speaker 6: Do you need him to just all of a sudden
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: bang be your leadoff hitter, or do you say, okay,
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: we're going to give you a soft landing spot, we'll
• 10:39
  Speaker 6: go seven, eight nine, that type of position in the line.
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm going to probably show my age here,
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: but I feel like you introduced rookies into the lineup
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: at the bottom and let them hit their way up
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: into more critical positions in the lineup, higher leverage spots.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: The same way.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: I still think a lot of starting pitchers should.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: Be introduced to the majors, either as.
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: Swingman or long relievers, or if you have to. They're
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: kind of that spot starter where you can reduce the
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: pressure on them out of the gate and let them
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: continue to work their way up into more significant roles.
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: I think by the end of the year McGonagall is
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: hitting in the top four spots in the lineup, but
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't start him there. I'd be like, you're the
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: eight or nine hitter. This is just to help you
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: get acclimated. We believe in you, we think you're going
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: to produce, but we're going to take the pressure off
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: a little bit. You're not coming up in higher leverage spots,
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: you're not coming up with guys on base all the time.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: You can just be who you are, and as you
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: continue to produce, we will move you up in the lineup.
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: The same way with a rookie pitcher, I would say,
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: as you continue to pitch, well, we're going to trust
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: you with higher workloads, higher leverage situations, cement you into
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: the rotation.
• 11:48
  Speaker 7: By the end of the season, Hey, Keith, A couple
• 11:53
  Speaker 7: guys before we're going to dig into Connor Griffin not
• 11:55
  Speaker 7: getting options, but with him and Dylan Cruz are probably
• 11:57
  Speaker 7: the two biggest names, right didn't maybe hast on Kim
• 12:00
  Speaker 7: but but uh, but but mainly Connor Griffin and uh,
• 12:06
  Speaker 7: Dylan Cruz not making their teams respectively.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: What happened with Dylan Cruz? What what?
• 12:11
  Speaker 7: Where has he gone? Because he has not hit in
• 12:12
  Speaker 7: the big leagues. And then after that we'll get into
• 12:14
  Speaker 7: Connor Griffin. But Dylan Cruz to me was shocking when
• 12:17
  Speaker 7: again he didn't make the team, he not got option
• 12:19
  Speaker 7: to Triple A.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: I gotta say good good for the Nationals. Nothing against
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: Cruise at all, but that the Nationals were not wedded
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: to He's been in the big leagues. He was the
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: number two pick in the draft. He was our top
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: prospect at one point. There's obviously a new front office
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: that they don't have those ties to him before, and
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: they can, I think, be a little bit more objective.
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: There's things Cruz needs to work on in Triple A.
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: I don't I have seen him in Triple A and
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: in the big leagues and he hasn't looked like quite
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: the same hitter. He has shown some vulnerabilities, particularly to
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: fastballs up, fast balls up and in pitches that he
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: clobbered as an amateur, and in the low minors he
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: has not done nearly as well against that in Triple
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: A or the majors, and not made adjustments. This is
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: a guy that really never failed. Then three years at
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: LSU he was the best hitter in the country, and
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: I wonder if it was kind of a bit of
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: a surprise to him when he got to even Triple
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: A and started to see some issues with contact. He
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: never hit gangbusters in the high Myers, not like he
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: hit three twenty three thirty and then got called up.
• 13:16
  Speaker 5: I always wondering if part of why he got called up
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: in the first place was, well, why at Langford's succeeding
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: in the majors and Paul Skeens is succeeding in the majors,
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: those guys who are the same draft class. We got
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: to bring our guy up at this point, sending Cruise
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: back to Triple A for support, a reset to work
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: on very specific things, with a new coaching staff and
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: a new player development, a new front office in place.
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: I hope this gets us back.
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: To the Dylan cruise that the Nationals thought they were
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: drafting because I, like you, I thought he'd hit. I thought,
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: if nothing else, this guy who's going to.
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: Hit for average.
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: We'll see how some of the secondary stuff plays out
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: as he continues to play. But he, like Torklsen, right,
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: he hasn't even gotten to that baseline of production that
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: would allow us to talk about what's his ultimate ceiling?
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: Okay, then what about Connor Griffin?
• 13:59
  Speaker 6: Is it?
• 14:00
  Speaker 7: I mean, we just had Jim Boden on here and
• 14:01
  Speaker 7: he was talking about service time manipulation, which we hate
• 14:03
  Speaker 7: talking about, right, But then the Pirates allegedly offered him
• 14:06
  Speaker 7: one hundred plus million dollars. Would he have made the
• 14:09
  Speaker 7: team if he's signed that extension, because if he's not ready,
• 14:12
  Speaker 7: then why do you offer him nine years one hundred
• 14:14
  Speaker 7: million ish dollars. It doesn't make sense to me why
• 14:17
  Speaker 7: you make that offer and then you send him down
• 14:18
  Speaker 7: because he doesn't accept it. If he takes that offer,
• 14:21
  Speaker 7: you think they're sending him down.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: Probably not.
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: I think I don't think their manipulating serviced. He was
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: in double A for less than a month at the
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: end of last year. He hit exceptionally well at that point,
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: but he's still a teenager. Would have been very that's
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: very unusual for teenagers to make opening day rosters as well.
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: As he has hit everywhere in the miners. It's one year,
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: just a couple of weeks in double A where and
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: he did not look great this spring.
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: Like if he.
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: Had gone off in spring training against big league pitching,
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: this is probably a very different situation. I heard all
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: winter they wanted him to win the job, but they
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: needed him to win the job. They were just going
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: to hand him the job. I have a feeling even
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: if he accepts the contract, I mean, that might actually
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: make it easier to send him down, because then there's
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: not even a hint of service time manipulation. You could say, look,
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: you're going down, you're getting paid, your contract is in place.
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: Here are the things we need you to work on
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: before we're going to promote you to the next step.
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: Whether it's they.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: Start him back in double A sender and Triple A,
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: probably they'll start him in Triple A and say here
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: are the things you need to do before we bring
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: you up to the majors. I had no issue with
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: them sending him down because he's so young and so
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: inexperienced and so talented, be willing to take a couple
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: of maybe it's just a couple of weeks. Let him
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: go down prove that he's ready for the next step,
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: as opposed to jumping him essentially two levels into the
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: majors where he hasn't had a lot of chance to
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: make adjustments, so to prove that he was going to
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: be ready to hit major league pitching. I think he's
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: going to get there sooner than later. He'll be up
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: before we get to the All Star break. But them
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: choosing to take a slower approach given his youth actually
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: middleized sense.
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: To me, sending Dying Cruise and Conor Griffin to Triple
• 15:59
  Speaker 6: A to face pitching that's not big league pitching to
• 16:03
  Speaker 6: see if they're ready seems like kind of a kind
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: of like a nineties to the late two thousands type
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: of thing. Triple A pitching isn't what Triple A pitching
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: isn't isn't big league pitching, and industry sources have said
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: the gap is farther and farther, So to me, when
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: you're a team like the Pirates, isn't the best development
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: a big league development, especially if they were saying, yeah,
• 16:28
  Speaker 6: we're willing to give you one hundred million dollars, we
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: can let you develop in the big leagues. We can,
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: we can let you be the best shortstop on our
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: team currently as you develop. I mean, I think I
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: think Gustin Perdroia hit one ninety in April in for
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: the for Boston when he first.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: Got called out.
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: So are they expecting too much? Or am I expecting
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: too much? Because he's still nineteen and he's all over
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: these all over everyone's publications.
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: I mean, I know there's a big difference between Griffin
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: and crue Cruise, where with Griffin he's never faced triple
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: A pitching at all.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: He's barely face double A pitching.
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: I think it was three weeks at the end of
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: the last season where he hit like crazy, because that's
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: all he has ever done since he first signed. But
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: to me, there's a big difference between the Griffin situation
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: where it's like, hey, prove you can hit double A pitching, okay,
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: or even say, prove you can hit triple A pitching,
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: which I agree with you is not close to big
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: league pitching. You go to triple A, you see plenty
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: of guys you at least throw hard. You will see
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys who throw maybe one quality off
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: speed pitch, but they can't locate it or they don't
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: have the full arsenal of weapons that you would find
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: in a big league starter. Griffin's never faced those guys
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: except the little bit in spring training with Cruz, I
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: could see more of the argument of can we develop
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: you better in the.
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: Big leagues because you've been in the big leagues for
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: a year and a half.
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: Cruz will probably go back to Triple A and say, well,
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: this is like batting practice, right, I've seen better than
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: this for my last five six hundred at bats at
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: this point. So that is more of just sitting him out,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: maybe away from the spotlight, to a more controlled situation
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: where you can get you can be working with him
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: away from the field a little more one on one
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: without the distraction of hey, you're hitting a buck eighty
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: in the big leagues again. But he's going to probably
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: overperform because he's facing worst pitching having been sent down
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: where's Griffin doesn't have that. He's never faced anything better
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: than double A pitching that he saw at the very
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: tail end of last year. I think he's gonna go
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: down and hit well enough that a month from now
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: they probably do just end up calling him up. But
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: I prefer them to be a little bit conservative because
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: he's so young. If you were twenty two or twenty
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: three like Pedroia was to me, this is a very
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: different story, and we're asking is he really going to
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: benefit from being sent down at that point given his
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: age and experience.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: Keith, we love having you on, really appreciate it as always.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Thanks for stopping by. Make sure you check out Keith's
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: articles in The Athletic much more info wise on the
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: breakout players, and you can do whatever you want with those.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: I know there's a lot of fantasy drafts that are happening.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: I've got mine tonight. So Keith, thank you man, great
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: to catch up. You love your insight.
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, my pleasure.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Hey, it might be time to have a heart to
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: heart with your phone and be like, I love you,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: but you cost too much.
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not paying this much anymore. That's it.
• 19:03
  Speaker 6: I mean, why why would I go more than fifteen
• 19:06
  Speaker 6: dollars a month? Mintmobile can give that to me and
• 19:09
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• 19:10
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• 19:54
  Speaker 2: We have two minutes for this. Here's my question for you, pirate,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: said Griffin.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Not ready. I'm actually okay with that.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: You can point to some things in spring training that say, hey,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: we're going to send them a triple A. I don't
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: think you can send a one hundred million dollar contract offer.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Noah Hyles Bucco Territory and reported it for his publication too,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: said that happened if he had taken it. AJ Do
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: you think they would have optioned him.
• 20:19
  Speaker 7: No, And by the way, we respect Keith and we
• 20:22
  Speaker 7: like Keith. But here's the deal. What let's say Connor
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: Griffin goes down to triple A and just tears it up.
• 20:28
  Speaker 7: Did they call him up and say, well, he tore
• 20:29
  Speaker 7: it up. He could have been doing that on the
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: big league roster. So you can't tell me this is
• 20:33
  Speaker 7: not some sort of service time manipulation.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
• 20:36
  Speaker 7: And by the way, they didn't already know that he
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: wasn't going to make the team before. What if he
• 20:40
  Speaker 7: would have hit five hundred they had to make the team. No,
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: like this is this is classic. We just it's an
• 20:47
  Speaker 7: easier call, and like Jim Bowden said, it gives us
• 20:49
  Speaker 7: an it possibly can give us an extra year of control.
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: And if he takes that contract, he's one hundred percent
• 20:55
  Speaker 7: in the major leagues. I'm sorry, they're not going to
• 20:57
  Speaker 7: send him a triple A making two three million dollars.
• 21:00
  Speaker 7: They're just not They're the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's going to
• 21:02
  Speaker 7: be on the big league roster.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: So listen.
• 21:04
  Speaker 7: I heard that he was offered a contract in spring
• 21:06
  Speaker 7: training when I was in Bradenton. I heard he was debating.
• 21:08
  Speaker 7: We didn't talk about it with Connor when we talked
• 21:10
  Speaker 7: to him, but I had heard this. I didn't want
• 21:11
  Speaker 7: to bring it up. It's not my place.
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: You didn't take it.
• 21:15
  Speaker 7: And now he's in where even I don't even where
• 21:17
  Speaker 7: is Indianapolis. I guess I don't even know where the
• 21:19
  Speaker 7: triple is, but I think so Indianapolis, Like, go tear
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: it up for a month and get up there, and
• 21:23
  Speaker 7: then I hope when you get there you take them
• 21:25
  Speaker 7: for every dollar that they're worth.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: Connor Pirates, I love the Pirates.
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: Stop.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: If you've got one hundred mil, you're up in the
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: big leagues here.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Sure that part bothers me.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: All right, we did American League. Now let's do a
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: National league. Sad here bet MGM futures National League West
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: will go.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: To a team quite heavily favorite.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: Do you even touch this category Dodgers AD minus seven hundred, No, right, no,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: you don't even think there's some sneakiness in here. Remember
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: last year the Padres hung with him? No, no, nothing, Okay,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: so she got.
• 22:11
  Speaker 7: Close closes not winning it. They didn't get that close.
• 22:16
  Speaker 7: I mean they were never It was never a doubt
• 22:18
  Speaker 7: who was winning that division last year Okay.
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: It was like the Dodgers lost six that the Padres
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: had won three and they got within like three games. No,
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: unless you want to light one hundred dollars on fire,
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: I don't see the reason to do it.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Late in the season.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: I think at one point they were tied and all that,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: but the Dodgers ended up winning the division by three games.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: They cleared them.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Let's see if I can interest you in the National
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: League Central. Yes, Cubs are almost even money. They're plus
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: one ten, Brewers at plus two forty Reds plus five hundred,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Pirates at plus six hundred.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Anything funky here? Where's value?
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: Brewers are still the value?
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 23:01
  Speaker 7: Just because they won ninety seven games last year. I
• 23:03
  Speaker 7: know they made some moves, but the Brewers are still
• 23:06
  Speaker 7: But the Cubs should win this division. They should No,
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: well they I don't know, but they should win this division.
• 23:10
  Speaker 7: So the Brewers, the Reds, the Pirate, I mean the
• 23:14
  Speaker 7: Cardinals obviously no. But to me, the Brewers are the
• 23:17
  Speaker 7: best value in this I mean under the Cubs. If
• 23:19
  Speaker 7: you want to win ten bucks down the road.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: If ten bucks is unimportant to.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: You, well no, I mean you put down one hundred,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: you win one ten yeah, right right, So it's a
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: little better than even money. It's a tiny bit better
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: than doubling your money.
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: I would say the Reds.
• 23:41
  Speaker 6: I mean, if there's anybody in the National League that, like, okay,
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: who could have like a breakout year that you'd be
• 23:47
  Speaker 6: surprised about where you're getting. What was that plus five hundred,
• 23:52
  Speaker 6: I mean five to one, five to one, I'd take
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: the Reds offense to figure it out in a National
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: League Central that could be a little bit more winnable.
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: I do think the Cubs are gonna win it, but
• 24:06
  Speaker 6: I think if there's a team I don't think. I
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: don't think me getting two forty from the Brewers is
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: enough value for me to say, oh wait, they've done
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: it every year.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: You know, Big Wou's not even quite up to his
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: pitch count here to start the season. They lost Freddy
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: p I just think the Reds could be that like
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: kind of quote out of nowhere type of pick that
• 24:31
  Speaker 6: will get you some good cash at five to one.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: Can I show you guys the one that I absolutely hate.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I would not touch this at all because I just
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: don't think there's enough value anywhere. National League East Division winner,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: they have the Mets favored at plus one thirty five. Okay,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: I think there's too much variance with the Mets. The
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Phillies I think will win the division. But we're at
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: plus one to eighty. It's not enough for me when
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: there are other teams that I think could ruffle feathers.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: And then with the way the Braves are going through
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the season with their rotation, they're at
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: plus two fifty. To me, this is a total spend
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: your money elsewhere category.
• 25:06
  Speaker 7: If we want to throw some money on the Marlins,
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: they have all the pitching in the world. I've been
• 25:10
  Speaker 7: told repeatedly, So maybe for ten bucks on the Marlins
• 25:13
  Speaker 7: and you can win a lot.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred bucks on the Marlins would win you
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: four g's are something.
• 25:19
  Speaker 7: That's the only one that I would say if you
• 25:21
  Speaker 7: wanted to just go crazy and take a shot at something,
• 25:24
  Speaker 7: that would be the one.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So ten bucks, if I'm doing my math right,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: would win you four hundred bucks.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Yes, forty to one odds not too shabby.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: Now, I would stick with bet MGM.
• 25:35
  Speaker 6: We don't have it on here, But if you're going
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: to anything National League East, go check out some wind
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: totals at the National League East. We hit a couple
• 25:42
  Speaker 6: of them, but you check those out because it's a
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: division that they're gonna beat each other up. But they
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: also have the lowly Nationals in it. It's an interesting
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: it's an interesting look at those wind totals.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I've been told we're gonna do a little bit of
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: that tomorrow, so we'll do predictions.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: We'll do the wind totals.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I think we'll pick three like we did the prior
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: two years, pick three over unders on the win total
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: side that you really like. Okay, bet MJM is offering
• 26:08
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• 26:10
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• 26:13
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• 26:16
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• 26:19
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• 26:22
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• 26:24
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• 26:27
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• 26:30
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• 26:38
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