Latest / The SME Stream / SME Stream Weekly Wrap - 29th November

Transcript

SME Stream Weekly Wrap - 29th November · The SME Stream

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Kyoder and welcome to the SMEE stream weekly wrap Up,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: brought to you by being Z. My name is Wilhelmina Shrimpton,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: and every week I'll bring you a short, sharp and
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: very sweet summary of all of the latest business news.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: As most of us know, when it comes to business,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: there's peaks, there's pits, and everything in between. Often it's
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: hard to keep up with your own day to day,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: let alone what's happening with the economy and how it
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: affects you. So that's where I come in, wrapping up
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: everything you need to know all they have missed over
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: the past week, and as a small business owner myself,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'll be on this journey with you too. This week
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: it's a massive week for the economy, focusing on those
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: three important letters, oh C. We unpack all of the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: reaction and predictions from the recent cut. The latest retail
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: trade survey numbers are out and the government prepares to
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: release it's for skill update, so could we be back
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: in the black? Plus a really inspiring chat with Marcallis
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: about his journey from sports and TV star to business staff.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: It's music to our ears and as predicted, the Reserve
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Bank has delivered another supersized cut to the official cash
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: rate to kick start our sluggish economy. It slashed the
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: OCR by fifty bases points, bringing the all important figure
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: down to four point two five percent.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Many Kiwis are already seeing relief with mortgage rates falling,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: allowing their budgets to stretch a little bit further and
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: giving families an extra dose of confidence heading into Christmas.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: The New Zealand share market greeted the latest interest rate
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: cut by rising point seven percent to its highest close
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: in more than three years, and the major banks moved
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: quickly to lower floating mortgage rates. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Keenan says markets had already priced in the latest cut,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: but the Reserve Bank signal that it will lower rates
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: faster than previously expected could push retail rates down even further.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: One two year rates could well dropped by twenty basis
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: points over the next week or so, But.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Even with all of that pozzleive sentiment, there could still
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: be a lag before that positivity actually starts to appear
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: in our back pockets and the form of that delightful
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: cold hard cash, as many careers are still waiting to
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: refix their mortgages. And even when they get to that point,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Or says borrowers should temper their
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: expectations as those retail rates may not completely fall in
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: line with the OCR due to other things like geopolitical factors.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: With all of that in mind, it could still be
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a slow road to recovery, with productivity still falling and
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: many people out of work. Employment growth is expected to
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: remain weak until at least mid twenty twenty five, and
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: for some financial stress will take time to ease. This,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: of course, is all in the name of inflation, and
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: while it sits at two point two percent, firmly within
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the target range, there's still concern about domestic inflation that
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: covers the things burning a big hole in our pockets
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: like insurance rates, power and rent, and remains high at
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: four point nine nine percent, something Reserve Bank Assistant Governor
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Karen Silk says needs to be brought down to under
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: three percent.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: There is some persistance from items that are a little
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: less responsive to monetary's policy. We're still looking for that
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: to come back at least to the top end of
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: the range, which is where it's historically sat.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: So with the next OCR announcement not until February. The
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: question now turns to what will come out of it.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: Our current projection is a steeper declinent in the official
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: cash row, and we've also talked explicitly about moving early
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: in the new year.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That could mean another super sized cut, but some economists
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: aren't convinced that's the best approach. A lot of economic
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: forecast is wondering when do we get back to those
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: sort of more normal, considered steps, given the economy is
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: already starting to show some early signs of turning around.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: For all of the latest commentary and interviews from Infometrics
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: principal economist Brad Olsen, Finance Minister Nikola Willis, former Finance
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Minister Seven Joyce, and Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Karen Silk,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: you can head over to the SMEA stream.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: The rbnz' assessment is it about I think half of
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: all mortgages will refix in the next six months and
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: about seventy five percent in the next nine months. So
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: as they refix, they should refix at lower rates, so
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: that will start to deliver some of that stimulus.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: That's JB. Drex an Or, Chief Asia Pacific Strategist, Sean Keene,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: speaking on markets with madisone ahead of the OCR announcement
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: about how soon we might start to see the relief
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: of interest rate cuts. He also touches on some of
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the geopolitical factors that could influence our economy and whether
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump may actually follow through on those tariffs.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: You know, I think the issue with Trump is trying
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: to decipher what he's going to do versus what he says.
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: And one of the wisest things I think I've read
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: about Trump is to take him seriously, but don't take
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: him literally. And what he's serious about is tariffs. You know,
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: whether he's serious about sixty percent tariffs on China and
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: ten to twenty on the rest of the world, well,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: we're not sure.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: You can hear the full insights and interview on the
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: SMEE stream. Now there's hope that the positive sentiment from
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the OCR caut will translate into a much needed boost
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: for retailers. Stats n z's latest retail trade survey shows
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: retail spend has again declined. The total volume of retail
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: sales dropped point one percent of the September quarter compared
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: with June, remaining at twenty four billion dollars. Unfortunately for
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: the industry, this is the ninth consecutive quarter to see
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: a drop. Now it is officially Black Friday today and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: now is the chance to turn those figures around. So
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: get into stores or add to your cart immediately and
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: get your Christmas shopping done early. I just know that
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: our retailers out there will thank you for it. And
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: while we've had a bit of an economic health check
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: this week, the Finance Minister is also foreshadowing an update
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: on whether the government's books are on track for surplus
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty seven twenty twenty eight. Nikola Willis is
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: set to deliver the half yearly Economic and fiscal update
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: in about three weeks time. All eyes and airs will
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: no doubt be on the forecasts, but Willis is cautioning
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: against unrealistic expectations.
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to chase a surplus at all costs.
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: Forecasts move up and down. What I've committed to New
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: Zealanders is that we will make sensible, prudent fiscal decisions
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: to get the books back in balance over time.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: You can catch he a full interview on the smestream. Finally,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: if you're after a bit of business inspiration. The lads
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: from Business in Between serve it up this week in
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a great chat with Mark Allis.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: We started Charlie's when we're still sort of playing, so
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: it was like, you know, let's.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Have a crack and good thing he did, because the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Charlie's Juice co founder eventually sold it to a Sahi
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: for a whop in one hundred and twenty nine million
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: dollars after ten years in business. He describes his life
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: as one of many chapters including sportsman, TV star and
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: business owner, and says the key to the Jews company's
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: success was the veriout strengths. It's trio of co founders
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: brought to the table.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: We had sort of Seaphan's commercial acumen to say, well,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: look but this might be the right approach. And my
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: sort of is any marketing or contemplative promotional ideas and
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: with the basics of having a marketing degree so you
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: kind of understand roughly what you need to be doing.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: And then as Simon is just the doer, so we
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: were a bit of a hit team.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You can hear the full yarn on Business in Between
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in the speed stream and that's it for the weekly
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: rat We'll be back next Friday with all of the
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: latest business news and the best bits on the speed
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: stream