Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Gotta Get Down | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/26/26

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Friday BEST BETS | Gotta Get Down | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt. Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three team Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: They made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: hold on nothing nice now, hold on, hold on me.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up Everyboddy? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you With Toadstool Sports. Friday, June twenty sixth
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: We went to one and one on the show yesterday.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: World Cup. It was awesome. We're five and one in
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: the World Cup now Toronto. I mean I added a
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: winner with the World Cup, like I hadded two plays
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: during the show. I was gonna have just two plays
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: on the day, and it wound up hurting me very
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: very slightly because I would have gone one oho and one,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: and that is a little bit better than two one
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: and one, because when you go one and one it's
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: a slight loss. But yeah, I added the Toronto play.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Gussman was really bad again. I don't know what that was.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: He gave up six runs, I'm pretty sure, and they
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: were losing six to nothing, maybe even through the first five,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: and then Toronto still almost came back and won the game,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: losing six to five. Yeah, I got nothing about that game, right.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: The Mets just could not put up any offense. That
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: game was zero zero at the end of five. The
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Mets then gave up three runs in the sixth inning,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: then got two right back. Then they tied the game late,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: and then they still lost in extra innings. So if
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I gave you the full game, it would have been
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: a loser. So the first five was at least the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: better option, I guess because it was a draw. I'm
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: focusing on soccer too much now, a push and then
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: both soccer plays won Ecuador with the outright win. That
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: was a good play. I think the game was you know,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, Germany I think did outplay Ecuador by a
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: little bit if you'll get the stats. But it wasn't
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: that crazy. And Ecuador the team that needed the game
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: or they got it done with the win there, so
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: I'm happy about that. And then I also got the
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Turkey US game right with Turkey, although the US kind
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: of dominated the game statistically, it was a little bit
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: lopsided statistically, but again, the more motivated team does have,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: you know, does sort of have a tendency to get
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: like better chances there and after the U the US
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: scored like almost immediately in that game, and then Turkey
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: put up two goals, took the lead, gave the lead
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: away early in the second half, US tied it, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: then it looked like it was going to be a
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: draw at the end, which also would have been a
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: winner on the on the on that play, but Turkey
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: scored and extra they scored a goal to actually win
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: with I don't know, like seven minutes into stoppage time.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: I think there was like one minute to go and
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: stoppage time whatever. So it was a fine day though,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: I guess, Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. I'm
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: not I'm not good. I'm never good, Turty sock, what's up?
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: That was the That was the only one you tailed?
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: You should tell my soccer plays then, even though I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: know nothing about soccer. Five and one in the World
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Cup so far landed in time to play Turkey, all right,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I would not have played them on the money line.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I mean that game, that game was
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: so close to being a draw, and statistically they kind
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: of lost the game. Dude, Like, I'm giving you the
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: plays here. I told you to just play the spread
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: or play win and draw. I'm not saying take the
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: money line at like plus two you know whatever, plus
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: two hundred something. Yes, it was a push the Mets one. Yeah. Well, yeah,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: you're obviously gonna lose a bunch. Yeah, yeah, I mean
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: World Cup. I don't know what I'm talking about, but
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: I guess my opinions have been all right. The over, Yeah,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I mean I was wrong about it. I wasn't sure
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: that there was gonna be that much scoring in that game,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: but yeah, the over definitely was correct in that one
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: decent amount of offense from both teams there, which it
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: does kind of make, you know what, now that I
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: think about it, it kind of makes sense actually, because
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: neither team had anything to play for. The US had
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: already advanced, Turkey was already eliminated. So I'm kind of
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: an idiot for not thinking about that, because usually when
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: the game doesn't matter, the defense is a little bit
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: less intense. So yeah, It does kind of make sense
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: in that way that there would be more scoring in
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: a game like that, because it almost becomes more like
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: a scrimmage. All right, let's get into baseball. I do
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: not want this show to be that long, although it
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: is going to be because we have a full baseball
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: slate here. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh played yesterday. They beat
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Seattle to win that series yesterday. Pittsburgh is staying at home.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati had yesterday off though, so Cincinnati has a rest
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: advantage here, but they are traveling in I think only
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: from Cincinnati though, so very short travel leg here for them.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati could be in a bounce back spot as well,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: because they got swept by Milwaukee in their last series,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: so they may try to bounce back from that. Pittsburgh
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: is the better overall team here, though Pittsburgh used a
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: lot of their relief pitchers yesterday. They use four, and
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: we have a rested bullpen on the other side of Cincinnati.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Although their bullpen stinks, they're twenty eighth in bullpen. They're
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: not quite that bad, but they're still pretty bad. Pittsburgh
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: is twentieth. This is arranged by Whip. We're looking at
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: a couple of bullpens you probably want to avoid. Pittsburgh
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: is number three in offense, which is good, and they're
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: really good at home on offense. Cincinnati twenty fourth, they
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: have really been struggling. They did get dal La Cruz back, though,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I think the last day that I mentioned him he
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: actually had come back. I think the night before that,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: so I think he is back. Andrew Abbot is pitching
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: for Cincinnati. He is okay. His whip is pretty bad
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: right now though, and I don't know what's going on
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: with him because he's been better than this in his career.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Although he is kind of a pitch to contact type
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: of guy, which isn't that good. But three point eight
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: three e ra is pretty good. One point four to
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: two whip though again that is too high. He's been
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: walking too many guys. He is better on the road
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: two point nine to three. Roady Ray did pitch against
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh early in the season at home and wasn't great.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Four runs allowed him five and two thirds innings. Not great.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: Took a loss in that one, I believe, yeah, he did,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: so that wasn't too good. He's pitching somewhat better here
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: this month with a low eray, but his walk rate
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: has been way too high, multiple walks in every start.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: He can't do that, man. Even though he does have
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: a fairly low hit rate here. His strikeout rate is
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: not high, but he's not a strikeout pitcher. Walk is
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: too high right now, so he's got to do something
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: about that. That's really his huge issue here is the walks.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Pittsburgh, though overall, are actually not bad.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: I looked this morning. Of course I can't click on
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: anything correctly. He's held him to a two thirteen average
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: at six point fifteen ops and forty seven at bats,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: and then includes that one start this year that he
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: had that wasn't good eleven strikeouts, four walks. He may
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: be able to pitch okay here. I don't know if
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: I'd want to bank on it, though, going up against
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh offense in Pittsburgh, and he is going to
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: be opposed by Paul Skeens, who obviously is the better
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. But if you want Pittsburgh, you're paying a
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: huge price for it. Skeen's two point eight six ERA
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: zero point nine three whip. He's in the Cy Young discussion, obviously,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: although he's gonna have to do some work to overtake
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Misierowski at this point, and Sanchez actually, and maybe Otani.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Skeen's two point sixty one. Homie Ira. He is better
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: at home. He's been pretty good in his recent starts here.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: He's been good this month. However, Pittsburgh has lost his
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: last seven starts. I mean, it's insane to think that,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: especially his last four. He's allowed two or fewer runs
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: in all of them, and his team has lost every
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: single one of them. Like, what the hell is going
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: on here? They gave him no run support in the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: last two and the two games prior to that, the
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen absolutely imploded after he was out of the game.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: So he is not getting helped by his teammates here.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: strike out rate, you know everything. Good numbers against Cincinnati,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: you know those are gonna be good as well. Very
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: few teams do a ton of damage against him. Two
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: seventeen average, five point fifteen oh ps eight, ridiculous thirty
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: to two strikeout walk ratio in sixty nine at bats.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: Almost half the at bats have resulted in strikeouts and
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: almost no walks there, so pretty dominant stuff there from schemes.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna want to fade Pittsburgh here. I know
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: that they're at the rest disadvantage. The money is back
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: in Cincinnati here eighty two percent of the tickets on Pittsburgh,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: sixty three percent of the cash on Cincinnati. And the
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: reason for the money coming in on Cincinnati is the
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: price minus two ten is basically where it is on Pittsburgh. Yeah,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think I would want to lay
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: that price, even if you do think Pittsburgh has the edge.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: That's a little bit crazy to have that price on
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: them there. The money's also backing the under pretty strong
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: in that game with a low total seven and a half,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: which you know it is a schemes game. If you're
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: gonna go under here, I think you should make it
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: a first five inning play. But three three and a
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: half is kind of pushing it there, And you don't
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: really know how good Abbot is gonna be or how
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: not good he might be, but you do get the
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: better of his home road split there. Both pitchers do
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers, so well, first five undermakes some sense,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: all right, next game up is going to be a
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: play for me. Houston Detroit. I'm gonna give out the
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: over eight and a half here. You're gonna look at
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the starting pitchers and think, oh, this is gonna be
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: a good pitching matchup here. I'm going to disagree on that. Obviously.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: We also do have the bullpens going for us here
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: where I don't think these bullpens are that good. Detroit
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday, Houston used two, so both
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: teams did play. They played each other yesterday in fact,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: so I think that actually helps the offenses. And yesterday's
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: game was a two to one Detroit win with Emi
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: and Melton both actually pitched well. It looks like in
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday, I think we're gonna see them higher
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: scoring game here. People are not gonna think that. It
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: looked like yesterday's game might have been somewhat more of
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: an over ish game, although I kind of like Detroit
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: in that game yesterday a little bit. But yeah, both
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: pitchers were surprisingly good. I guess the Melton has been
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: better than Emai. But this game, I think we have
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: two pitchers that are overrated here in this game. Plus
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: we're gonna fade the bullpens, who again are not really
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: that good. Detroit is ranked sixteenth. Now, they're all right,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: but I think you can still fade this bullpen, and
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: you know, I go over. I rarely am gonna have
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: an over first five play. I don't even know if
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I've ever done it, to be honest, because I think
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: if the starting pitchers don't do well, it just cascades
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: into the bullpen. So yeah, and then Houston, their bullpen
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: has been better recently, but they're nineteenth and their bullpen,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: the array is still really ugly and worse than all
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: these teams around them here. So I think these bullpens
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: are still fadeable. Houston's got a pretty good offense still,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: although they've dropped a little bit. They're thirteenth. I know
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Detroit's hasn't been that good. They're twenty first, but they
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: do do better at home. Detroit does, and I think
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: they've a pretty good matchup here against Spencer Araghetti. You're
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: gonna think, well, why why I don't want to fade him.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point one to three ERA one
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: point two whip. Yeah, but what were his numbers before
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: his last start? His numbers looked quite good. I think
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: he had an RA below two for a while. And
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: his whip was way better than this two. He's starting
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: to struggle. Man, I know he's better on the road
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: two point seven to six roadra I don't care. I
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: don't think he's that good man. I mean, I know
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: he had eight strikeouts no walks in his last outing,
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: so he was actually in command in his last outing.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: And actually his command has been good this month twenty
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: five to six strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, I mean,
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: usually I don't want to fade pitchers that have good
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: command because I think that if they have a bad
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: ray like he has an r ray of almost seven
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: this month, which is obviously really bad. And if I
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: see command numbers like this, I think, well, that is misleading.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Because his command has been good, Yeah, it has, but
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: he's also on more hits than innings pitched this month,
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: and the fact that he gave up six runs to
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Cleveland last time out, that is still not good. Dude,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: that is a really bad offense. So I don't think
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: he's in great form right now. I expected him to
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: regress a bit, and it is really weird because his
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: walk number has gone down, but he's become more hittable
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: at the same time, and his problem up until this month,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: his problem easily was the walks. His walks have been
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: awful for most of the season, although he was pretty unhittable.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: Now the reversus happened, so it's like he can't figure
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: it out. It's either one or the other. Either his
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: command is terrible or he's too hittable. So he's either
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: missing too far off the plate or he's getting too
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: much of the plate with his pitches and he can't
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: find that like sweet spot there, you know what I mean.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: He's got a decent strike out rate, his hit rate
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: is low, his walk rate is too high. But the
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: key really here is the matchup here. His numbers against
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Detroit are abysmal, although it's only eighteen at bats, but
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: most of their hitters have faced him. They have absolutely
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: demolished this guy. Five point fifty six batting average, twenty
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: two sixty three ops, four strikeouts, five walks. I know
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: it's a really small sample size, like this is unsustainably
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: bad stuff here, but this is ridiculous. He's allowed five
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: home runs and eighteen at bats to them, and eight
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: extra base hits. This is just crazy stuff. Riley Green
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: three home runs three for five off him. If you
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: want to go with like a player prop there hits
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: plus runs withss RBIs I think arrag Getty's gonna give
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: up some runs here, man, That's what I think, and
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: then we're also gonna fade Keeter Montero, even though I
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: think he's not that bad, his numbers do look pretty good.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Three point six ERA, three point six eight, excuse me,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: one whip. He's a little bit worse at home three
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: point seventy five ERA. He was good in his last
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: start against the White Sox, and that's a good sign.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: The White Socks are a good offense. His last two
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: full starts have been good, but he had a really
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: weird I think bullpen outing me. I don't know what
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: happened in that outing against Houston, but it wasn't good
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: in between the two. But I don't think Montero's as
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: good as his numbers look. I know that I've had
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: positive things to say about him. He does have a
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His walk rate is actually low as well.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is really low. He pitches to contact,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: so he is a guy that the advanced analytics guys
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: will not like because they like strikeouts. I mean, I
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: like strikeouts too. Although when I see a low whip,
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: I think there is something to that. Still like, well,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: this guy's not putting guys on base, but the pitching
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to contact a lot of times does regress because a
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: lot of it relies on where those balls and play
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: are going, and balls in play are always dangerous. That
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: sounds wrong, but also the key is his numbers against
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Houston are bad. I know we have a small sample here,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: fourteen at bats, but again, basically their entire line up
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: his face him four twenty nine average, one thy seventy
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: one ops, two strikeouts, no walks. So I'm gonna go
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: over in this game. Here. It feels like there are
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of over games today. The money is agreeing
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: with me on this. It looks like, uh, this total
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: is up a little bit to nine. I still think
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: you can find an eight and a half. But it's
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: because of me, man, I'm moving the line myself. I
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: just have that much weight. The money is coming in here. Man,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: I would still go over nine, but this total is
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: shooting up. I still think you can find an eight
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: and a half, though, I hope. I mean, I like
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: literally every book at eight and a half at minus
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: one ten when I looked like twenty minutes ago. Probably
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: let me look right now, Yeah, I mean you have to, Yeah,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: you have to pay a little bit more for the
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: eight and a half. Most books are at nine. Now
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: I would still do that, though I know you're going
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: right on that key number. Now, eight and a half
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: is a lot better than nine. But but yeah, I
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: mean you can get nine at like even money. I mean,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: that's still I think, all right, and if it hits nine,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: you'll push. But yeah, I would still go over the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: nine fifty six percent of tickets, ninety three percent of
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I like to see that
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: though that you know, my initial thought jumping in on
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: this number, and then you get the better of the number,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: and the number is moving in that same direction. That
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: kind of confirms that my thinking is in line with
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: like sort of where the money is here. So I
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: like seeing that. Mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Although I apologize, I mean you have to be in
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: my head to like get some of these better numbers,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, because some of these things
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: are gonna move depending on when I do the show
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: and whatever. Washington and Baltimore, this game looks like an
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: over to me too. I almost gave out the over
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: in this game too. Uh. There seem like a lot
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: of overs today. Baltimore is returning on from a road
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: trip though, and that is one of my concerns with
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: going over here. They had a long road trip out
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: to the Pacific Coast to see la Anaheim and now
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: they're finally returning home. They were off yesterday, of course
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: to have that cross country trip, but still this is
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: a very negative spot for Baltimore having a return cross
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: country readjust to the time zone, you can get distracted
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: when you come back home. I don't know if they're
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: necessarily going to overlook Washington, who is their geographic rival
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: in the DC area, But I still don't know. Man,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: this is still a very negative spot returning home from
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: a long road trip. I think they have the longest
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: road trip return spot today. I think there might be
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: two teams doing that today. But that is a negative,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: so I'll look to fade that team usually upon the
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: return home. But my worry about the over is that
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: that return home and the day off affects the hitting,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, It can cool off the hittings.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: That would worry me a little bit about going over here.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: I would have some concerns about Baltimore's offense. Washington. They
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: played yesterday. They lost again to Philadelphia yesterday. But they
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: have a better travel spot because they're only coming in
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: from Washington to Baltimore, so they could drive that in
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: like a couple hours or whatever, so you know, or
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: maybe less than that. Right, I don't even know. Everything
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: is close there. I've done it before, but I don't
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: even remember how long it took. Yeah, so Washington is
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: in the better spot, even though they're not rested here.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Washington did use two relief pitchers yesterday. Both bullpens are bad.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Washington is twenty sixth in bullpen. They're one of the
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: four bullpens with any ray of over five right now.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: That is pretty bad. Baltimore eighteenth. They're not a great
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: bullpen either, so that does help if you like the
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: over The bullpens are not good. The offenses are pretty decent.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Washington has tied him forth with the A's Oriel sixteenth
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: in offense arranged by ops. Not too bad. Washington is
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: going with Andrew Alvarez here. I don't think he's that
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: bad though he's still kind of young and they're kind
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: of they've had him in the bullpen for a while,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: they made him a starter. He's got a three point
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: three four e RA pretty good. One point three to
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: nine whip is not very good though, so he is
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: putting too many guys on base. But he's been good
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: on the road two point eight to nine road ERA.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good recently. But they're limiting his pitches here,
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: which makes sense, kind of like they don't want to
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: overwork this guy, but they're letting him go like exactly
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: four innings in every outing. But his last two have
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: both been good. He's allowed one run in each of
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: them with an eleven to one strikeout walk ratio there,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: So he is actually pitching okay right now. It's just
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: he's not really gonna go that deep into the game
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: and then you're gonna go washing its bullpen for a
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: long time in this game, so that does make it
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: look overish as well. For Alvarez. His hit rates a
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: little bit high, good strike out rate, high strike out rate.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is not great though. I mean it
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: looks low, but it's he has a low amount of
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: innings pitch, so that's not that good. Numbers against Baltimore.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: They have actually faced him twelve at bats. They have
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: a four seventeen to average against him, nine to sixty
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: two OPS four to one strike out walk ratio. So
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Alvarez has struggled against Baltimore specifically, So that does help
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: the case for the over here Trevor Rodgers, especially for Baltimore.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: This guy is like all over the place, dude, Like
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: most of most of his career wasn't that good. He
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: inexplicably had a really good season last year for Baltimore.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: This season has been mostly awful. But he's been actually
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: good this month though, so he's just really hard to predict.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: His overall numbers don't look good. Five point three ERA,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: one point three six WHIP, five point five to two
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: home ERA not good, but again this month he's been
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: considerably better two point two two ERA. This month, He's
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing, gone
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: at least five and two thirds in every outing, fewer
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning by quite a bit. Here
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: low strikeout rate though, but you know, I mean, he
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: did shut out the Dodgers. He had a one hit
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: shutout against the Dodgers for seven innings last time out
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: on the road, although maybe he'll be in a letdown
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: spot after that, but I don't know, man. I mean
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: that is a sign that maybe he is coming into
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: some sort of form here. So he is in better
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: form right now. But his other three starts this month
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: were against San Diego, Seattle, and Boston, and those are
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: not elite offenses. His overall numbers, his hit rate is
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: still too high, his walk rate is still pretty high,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: strike got rate really low. He's just not really fooling guys.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Do we trust him in this matchup? I would lean
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: towards no. Washington's offense is really good on the road.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: He's not good against Washington and forty two at bats
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: three fifty seven average, nine thirty seven ops. These guys
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: are gonna be familiar with him because he was on Miami,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: so he was in their division not too long ago,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: and then they face each other every year here too,
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: his rivals Baltimore and Washington. He's got a three to
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: three strike out walk ratio against him as well, So
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: I think over is correct in this game. I have
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: a few issues with it, like Rogers pitching better recently.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily dislike Alvarez really either, but the money
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with me. Here, fifty two percent of
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty one percent of the cash on the over
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: total is at nine kind of a high total. It
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: makes sense, though, I mean, I think that game is
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: an over. Uh so you could do what you want
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: with that, But yeah, it looks overrish to me. The
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: game that I did give out the overlooks like less
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: of an over, which kind of makes me like it
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit more. Oh and by the way, Detroit
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: is getting the money. I forgot to mention the side
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: fifty one percent of tickets, fifty seven percent of the
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: cash on Detroit at like minus one eighteen. I don't
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: really have a good feel for the side in that
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Houston Detroit game though. As far as the side in
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Washington Baltimore, Baltimore is getting the money sixty one percent
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on them
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: at minus one forty or so. I don't think I
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: would do that. I mean, their return home spot across
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: country is really really bad, So if anything, I think
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Washington slightly there, probably would take
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: the bullpen out though I think Washington first five might
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: make some sense there, but I don't necessarily want to
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: fade Rogers in that spot either, so you know, but
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: still I think the over is the much better way
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: to look at that game. Though, even though I just
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: said I don't necessarily want to fade that starter, the
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: over makes more sense to me than anything else in
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: that game. Texas at Toronto Toronto. These teams played each
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: other yesterday. Toronto lost six to five. We know because
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: I gave that out as a play. Not happy. Toronto
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: used one relief pitcher yesterday. It was Simeon Wood's Richardson.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: He is no longer on Minnesota. He is in Toronto's bullpen. Now,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Minnesota might have just cut him. I have no idea.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Maybe it was a trade. I have no clue. Texas
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen here. Although Texas used two
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen. That's still not bad though,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: but they did have to save the game, so they
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: did use their best to relief pitchers. Basically, Texas number
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: eight in bullpen, they're pretty good, Toronto number thirteen. Texas
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: is the better bullpen here, even despite the usage yesterday.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Neither offense has been that good. Texas twentieth, Toronto twenty third.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Nathan Evalde pitching for Texas. On the surface, this looks
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: like a huge pitching edge for Texas, but I actually
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: am gonna disagree that that's actually the case. Maybe that's
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: crazy because just for me, like I like Evaldi way
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: better than Corbyn, but if you look at the matchup numbers,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: it almost seems to indicate the complete opposite. Evaldi doesn't
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: have a great ERA this year four point twenty four,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: but his whip is good one point one eight. He's
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: better than his RA suggests. He's a little bit better
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: on the road, which makes no sense. I don't know
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: why he hasn't been that good at home, but four
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: point one to one roadyra usually every Texas pitcher is
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: gonna be better at home. Evaldi is still pitching pretty well,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: though he's got a high strikeout rate this month, a
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: low walk right. His hit rate's a little bit high, though,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of been the issue. The issue has
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: really been the home runs though, like his hit rate
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: on the season is not that bad, his walk rate's
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: pretty low, strike out rate is relatively high. I think
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: he's just gotten kind of unlucky because he's not even
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher, but he somehow allowed seventeen home
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: runs this year already. I just don't know how that's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: even the case. So I think the Evaldi is better
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: than he looks here. He had really good numbers last year,
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: so I think the reality lies somewhere in the middle
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: there between those two. But Evaldi against Toronto, as I
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: was pointing out, he has bad matchup numbers. They have
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of experience against him because Evaldi has been
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: in their division for a decent amount of time. He
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: was on the Red Sox for a while. One hundred
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: and nineteen at bats, twenty five strikeouts, eight walks, that's
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: not bad, but three to nineteen batting average, eight ninety
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: two ops. Those are not good numbers there. So Evaldi
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: does not match up well against Toronto. Patrick Corbin is
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: going for Toronto, and you know me on the show,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of him, and rightfully so. Four
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: point seven to three ERA, one point five to three
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: whip is really bad. He's really bad at home five
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: point nine to six home era. He's not a good
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: form right now either. He hasn't even made it four
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: innings in his last three starts in any of them
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: at home against Philly, at home against the Yankees and
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: on the road against the Cubs. Now, Yankees and the Cubs,
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: those are some pretty good offenses right there. But Corbyn's
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: still been awful recently. Eleven to nine strike out walk
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: race here this month, twenty three hits, a lot of
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: fifteen to third innings, fifteen and a third. Granted, yes,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: he's faced mostly pretty good offenses here, Atlanta was one
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: of them as well. Overall numbers bad, high hit rate,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: high walk rate, low strikeout rate. There's nothing to like
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: about these numbers here. The only thing that you can
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: like here though, is well, really, there are two things here.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: He's good against Texas. They have one hundred thirty three
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: at bats against him, two forty one average, five ninety
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: nine ohps, thirty four to eight strike out walk ratio.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: So Corbin has actually been good against Texas's lineup. And
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: the other reason why Corbin might be the way to
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: look in this game is he's facing his former team
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: for the first time. He was on Texas last year
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: and Texas let him go after that. I mean, he's
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: not a great pitcher, but the thing is when a
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: pitcher faces the team that most recently got rid of
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: them for the first time, a lot of times they
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: step up their game and want to prove that team
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: is wrong for getting rid of them. So Corbin might
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: step up his game a little bit here, and he
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: has the better matchup numbers, So I actually lean Toronto here. Uh,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: the money is not agreeing with me. Fifty four percent
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: of ticket sixty one percent of the cash on Texas.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Texas is at minus one twelve here or so. But
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: I just showed you the matchup numbers. I mean, Corbin
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: is really tough to back. I know, I don't really
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: want to do it, like he just sucks. He sucks
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: at home, but this specific match up and the situation
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: kind of puts me there. Not gonna be on my
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: card or anything. But Toronto first five would be the
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: way I would play this game money line Toronto verse five.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I would avoid their bullpen though, because Texas does still
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. Money is backing the over in
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: that game too, for whatever that's worth. Arizona at Tampa Bay,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: I am not getting through these games fast man. This
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: is bad. Tampa Bay beat Kansas City yesterday to even
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: that series after losing the first two. They demolished Kansas
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: City yesterday. Both teams actually played yesterday. I believe Arizona.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Oh no, the Arizona was a rain out, that's right.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: So Arizona was going to have to travel after playing
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis yesterday in Saint Louis, but they got a
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: little bit of a break because they actually didn't have
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: to play yesterday. They're still traveling from Saint Louis. But
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Arizona does have a day off now here, which should
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: help their bullpen a little bit. Tampa Bay, who's two
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Arizona's ringing ninth and bullpen,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: but I still don't think they're that good. Their ray
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: is not that good. Tampa fourteenth, but they're also overrated
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: there too. Their era indicates, you know, not really good
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: things about their bullpen. I think Arizona's bullpen is the
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: better one and more rested here, but I don't love
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: either bullpen at all. Tampa Bay has the better offense
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: at fifteenth Arizona twenty sixth. Not great. This starting pitching matchup.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: Zach Gallon is pitching for Arizona. He was going to
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: pitch yesterday, so they had a rainout and he's just
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: gonna pitch you know today because he was the next
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: guy up. He's been awful though. Six point one ERA,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: one point six y three whip really really bad, really
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: bad on the road, six point nine to eight road ERA.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: He was awful in his last start at home against Minnesota.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: This is not good. His strikeout walker ratio this month
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: is ten to seven and twenty to thirty innings on
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: top of thirty six hits allowed. That is really really bad.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: Really high hit rate, high walk rate, low strike out rate.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: And that's been the case from all season. All of
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: those things apply to him on the entire season. There's
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: nothing to really like about any of these numbers. I
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: don't know what has happened to him because he used
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: to be a decent pitcher. I don't know what the
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: deal is here going up against Tampa Bay. Here, he
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: actually has decent numbers against them, and twenty three at bats,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: it's not a huge sample. They don't have any extra
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: base hits off him. Two sixty one average, five to
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: eighty one OPS, four to two strike out walk ratio.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Gallon actually has good numbers against them, so the matchup
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: is actually okay for him. But the rest of his numbers, yeah,
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: there's nothing to like there otherwise, So I don't know
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: if he's that matchup dependent. Maybe he could do okay here.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Nick Martinez his pitching for the Rays. He's obviously been
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: the better of the pitchers here, but maybe that's gonna
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: have the public too heavily on TAM but here two
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: point seven to three ERA, one point one six whip
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: that's good, not as good at home three point two
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: to one at home ERA. He's pitching well generally, He's
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: a lot more than three on runs once this entire season.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: You look at his numbers, fairly low hit rate, low
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: walk right, that's all good. He doesn't put guys on base,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: also doesn't strike guys out though, so he's another guy
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that's a contact pitcher here. But still he's effective at it.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: He's only had one bad start here. His numbers against
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Arizona are actually not good though they saw him when
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: he was in the National League. They have fifty two
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: at bats against him two eighty eight to average, nine
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: to sixteen oh ps, six to four strikeout walk ratio.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe Martinez, you know, doesn't do as well here, like
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: it just looks like it's not the not the great
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: greatest matchup for him here Arizona. You know, with the
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: better of the matchup numbers at least, and with a
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: day off, you know, Tampa Bay might look too good.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Right now, I still don't think Tampa Bay is as
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: good as the record looks am. I lean Arizona here slightly.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: It looks like the money does agree with that. Tampa
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Bay minus one thirty something here on the money line
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the ticket, seventy seven percent of the
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: cash on Tampa. So the money is actually fading a
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: public Tampa side there. It looks like I agree with it.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: I think I would just look Arizona money line there.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: That is not on my card though, but yeah, I
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: mean almost nothing is on my card. I have one
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: more play, and it's gonna be another one of those
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: plays where I think people are just not gonna want
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: to make that play at all, and the money doesn't
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: even agree with my play. But I'm also it's also
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: gonna be a first five play though, So that's really
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: hard to gauge. But I'm gonna give that out later
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: in the show. Yankees and Red Sox my Red Sox
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: on ESPN Unlimited. Here Red Sox got the win yesterday
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: pretty surprised because it was a return home spot, bad spot.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Plus they had to go up against and Red Sox
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: broke a tie with a Durban home run and the
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Red Sox bullpen held for once. There you go Red
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Sox with a six to three win, and the Red
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: Sox actually have a better pitching matchup in today's game.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Of course, I mean anything is better than Faci Schlitler,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: but this is one of the better pitching matchups the
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are gonna get against the Yankees, although that
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: probably means the Red Sox are gonna lose. But this
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup does look a lot better than yesterday's. Red
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Sox use four relief pitchers Yesterday, Yankees also did. Both
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: bullpens have been good, the Red Sox slightly better at fifth,
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: Yankee seventh. We have two good bullpens here, though Yankees
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: are the way better offense. They're number two. The Red
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Sox are twenty fifth right now, not good, and they
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: have not been good at home most of the season.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Maybe the Red Sox can get some offense here against
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Will Warren, although his era is good three point four
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: to five, but his whip is not really that good
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: one point three to three, so that does indicate that
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: his EERRA should be higher than it is. Warren looked
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: really good for the first couple months this season, but
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: he's trailed off a little better tailed off whatever. He
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: is still better on the road right now two point
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: ninety seven, but I don't know what to make of
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: that because he was not good on the road last year,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: so last year was a bigger sample size to look at.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Warren's been struggling a bit this month and he has
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: not really face good offenses. He failed to make it
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: five innings against Cleveland and Toronto. His two roads starts
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: this month were both bad. Had a six to five
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio on those two outings too, that is
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: not good. He's been a lot more hittable this month
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: as well. He wasn't really that good against Cincinnati last
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: time out either at home, although in that one the
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: defense behind him failed completely, like four unearned runs scored
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: against him in that one, so it wasn't as bad
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: as it looked, and he did have a lot of
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: strikeouts there. But he's been bad recently on the road,
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: so he does seemed to be in the greatest form
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: right now. His overall numbers though still don't look that bad.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is alright, it's like right in line
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: with one per inning. You'd like to see it a
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: little bit lower than that, though. His walk rate is
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: not horrible and his strike out rate is still high,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: so overall he's still all right. But he's pitching worse
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: right now for the most part, and his numbers against
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are not that good, although they only
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: have six hitters who have faced him twenty seven at
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: bats three point thirty three, batting average, eleven to twenty
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: eight ohps, four to three strike out walk right here,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: so the Red Sox have hit him pretty well. So
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: maybe the Red Sox will be able to score a
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: little bit in this game, you know, the Red Sox
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: still though. I mean they got some offensive injuries too,
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: which nobody really talks about because their offense has been
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: bad all season anyway. But Roman Anthony's been out for
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: a while. I don't know when he's even coming back,
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: if he is, which is a huge blow because he's
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: one of their most talented young hitters and he still
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: he's he's like never been healthy since they've called him
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: up last year or whatever. Kinder full Leifo went down
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: not too long ago as well, so I don't know
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Red Soars are going with Peyton Toley on the mound here.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I tweeted about him two days ago or yesterday, which
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I was a little bit late to the party, but
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I guess a couple of weeks ago he had an
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: interview where he talked about one of his greatest life
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: achievements being succeeding against the I think it's called the
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Big Texan. It's a seventy two ounce steak challenge in Amarillo, Texas,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: and he had failed it the first time, but in
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: his interview he was talking about how one of his
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: greatest achievements was trying it a second time and finishing it.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: And it's like a seventy two ounce steak plus a
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: bunch of sides and like a baked potato, and I
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: don't know, I think you have to consume a drink
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: as well with it, whatever it is. I love that though,
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: Like I've done some competitive eating as well, you know.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: And the way that he said it, he was like, yeah,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: this big body needs to eat a lot of food.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, this guy is the man man. He's
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: like my favorite Red Sox player at this point, he's
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: been good too. Three point eighty R one point ZHO
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: nine whip pretty good stuff here. He's got a two
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: point seven to six Homie ra. So he's been better
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: at home. He's been all right recently. His numbers have
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse in his recent starts. A
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: couple of them came on the road, although one was
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: at Seattle, but he wasn't exactly bad in any of
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: those starts. Overall, numbers, low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: strike got rate a little bit low for a guy
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: like him. Marie. He throws up her ninety, so you'd
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: like to see that strike out rate a little bit higher.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: He did face the Yankees once early in the season.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: It was his first start of the season. He really
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: really pitched well in that outing, which was here in Fenway.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: But now my meaning won't do as well here though,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: right because the Yankees might be able to make some
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: adjustments off of that. But he's been good against the Yankees,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: although it was mostly just that one start. They have
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: five hitters right now in their current lineup have faced him.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: But of course Judge was in the line up back
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: then and he's not now. He's got twelve at bats
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: against them, two fifty average, seven to fifty oh ps,
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: one home run in there from jazz Chism, the the
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: lollipop guy. I don't know if you guys were aware
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: of that. Jazz chishlm was like eating a lollipop, sucking
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: a lollipop while he was out on the field. And
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: you know, Aaron Boone basically just said, like, you know,
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: as long as he's like hitting a home run to
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: win us the game, I don't care. He can have
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: all the lollipops he wants. I'm like, this thing is,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: it's so stupid, dude. I mean, I don't know why
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: people care that much. Although I think it's stupid to
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: have a lollipop out there because you might choke on
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: it if you're trying to make like a fielding player
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: or something. But in a way, it kind of reminds
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: me of like Red Sox antics. This is why, this
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: is why, you know, another reason to like the Red
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Sox though, over the Yankees. Although the Yankees are trying
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: to change now where they're allowing like beards now because
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: of Devin Williams, who was terrible for them last year
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: and now he's not even on the team. Ridiculous. But
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: they're allowing you know, antics like lollipops. So but you know,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the Yankees have always had this like uptight aspect of
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: them where they don't allow the facial hair. They have
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: to look professional all this shit. And this is why
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: I loved the Red Sox because the red part of
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: the reason why. I mean, I know him from Boston,
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: but the Red Sox were the complete opposite of that.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: You know, the idiots in twenty four, twenty or two
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: thousand and four, I mean or whatever, where you got
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: pine Tower all over your helmet, you got massive beards,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: you know, baggy uniforms. Man Ramirez would be just doing
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: stupid shit out on the field, Like I remember, Ramirez
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: would like walk into them because he played left field
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: a lot. He would he would literally go into the
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Monster during a game to take a piss and then
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: come back onto the field. I'm like, I hope nobody
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: hits it up to left field while he's in the
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: fucking Monster taking a leak, and then he do other
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: like I don't know. I remember one time he slid
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: to make a catch in left field and he had
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: a huge bottle of water in his pocket and he
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: landed on it and it exploded. I'm like, this is
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: like so ridiculous. Jazz Chism will never be that fun though,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: But anyway, I'm yeah, I don't want this show to
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: be that long. Chisholm does have a home run off tolly,
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: but totll. These other numbers are pretty good here. The
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: Yankees might adjust a little bit, but I don't know.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean slightly towards the Red Sox here. They
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: are getting the money and the Yankees are favored at
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: like minus one p fifteen here. But the Red Sox
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: seem to have the starting pitching edge here in this game,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: in this matchup, and I think they have a slight
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage. Yes, the Yankees have the way better offense. Yes,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are the better team, so maybe you do
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: have to still line them as a favorite here, But
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: given this specific matchup, Red Sox is a slight dog.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: Maybe makes sense here, though, of course that means they're
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: gonna lose this game. They have the better matchup here,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: they'll lose. They had the worst matchup last night and
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: they won sixty one percent of tickets on the Yankees
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: sixty nine percent of the cash on Boston, and now
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I'm more upset that I was not able to take
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: up was a Kyle in the chat yesterday who had
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: the extra Red Sox ticket. I'm mad that I was
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: not able to take him up on that offer because
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: that would have been a good game to go to.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: A win over the Yankees, man a win over Schlittler. Anyway, Yeah,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: this show's going really long here. Philadelphia and the Mets.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: We lost on the Mets, or no, we did not.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: We had a push first five. The Mets fired their manager, though,
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: you know what I always say about this, so Mendoza
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: is out. It's like the fired coach phenomenon. This is
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: one thing that I talk about on the show. It's
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: a situational angle in basically any sport when a team
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: fires their coach or manager. I like to play on
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: that team in that first game because I think it
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: gives the team a spark because basically there are two
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: things that could happen here. Either the team didn't like
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: that coach or a manager, and they're gonna respond and
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: play better after that because they get to play for
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: a new guy, and maybe they like that guy. I
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: don't know who. The Mets interim manager is. I assume
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be somebody that was already on the
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: coaching staff, though it usually is, although in the Red
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: Sox case, they called up their triple A manager, which
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: also made sense though because the Red Sox have a
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: bunch of young guys that played for him. Don't know
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: what the Mets are doing, but it could be that
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: or the other thing is that the players want to
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: prove that they're not the problem and that the coach
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: or manager is the problem. So the Mets might be
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit fired up. They're coming off an ugly
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: home sweep at the hands of the Cubs, so situationally,
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: this looks like a good spot to maybe look towards
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: the Mets here to have some sort of spark after
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: they fire their manager. And the Mets we know they
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: have more talent on this roster than what they've shown
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: so far. Sodo might still be hurt, though I don't
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: know Sodo's been hurt recently. Again I don't know, but
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: this Mets roster still has way more talent than what
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: their record would indicate, same with the Red Sox. By
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the way, two big market teams here that that's where
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: the good stuff ends though for the Mets here, because
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: if you want to play the Mets, you're gonna have
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: to fade Zach Wheeler for Philadelphia here, So I do
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: not want to do that, although I'm gonna show you
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers in a minute, and there might still
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: be an argument for doing it. Philadelphia did play yesterday,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: they played at home, and they did use four relief
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. The Mets, though, their bullpen, is at a
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: disadvantage kind of because they used a ton of guys
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: over the last two days. Because remember Wednesday, the Mets
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: had to play a double header, So the Mets have
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: played three games in the last two days, so that
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: is not good. They have not had a break, and
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: they use four relief pitchers yesterday. Yes, excuse it yesterday.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: The same thing is gonna apply to the Cubs when
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: I talk about them later. The Mets are number two
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: in bullpen still though Philadelphia number eleven, so the Mets
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: do still have the better bullpen. I'm probably still gonna
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: give him a bullpen edge here, but it's less strong
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: because of all the bullpen usage they've had in the
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: last couple of days. So I don't that Philadelphia is
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: twenty first in offense tie with Detroit, which is not good.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: But the Mets are twenty ninth. We know their offense
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: has really really struggled. So again, even though the situation
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: looks good for the Mets as far as the fired
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: coach phenomenon, here, they're the less rested team here. That
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: doesn't look good. You know, the bounce back spot looks good,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: but the Mets are at a disadvantage everywhere else here
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: in this matchup. They have the worst starting pitcher who
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: is undecided. They have the bullpen. They do have the
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, but in this matchup like it looks like
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: they kind of even out because of the rest and
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: then if the Mets have the worst offense here too.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler is pitching for Philadelphia. Like I said, I mean,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: he's not really a guy that I want to fade.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Two point one, one point eighty eight whip really good
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: home road splits are pretty insignificant. He's basically the same
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: either way. He's walked a few too many guys in
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: his most recent outings, but he's still been really effective.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: He did just face the Mets, though, so the Mets
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: did recently see him, but they're really familiar with him anyway,
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: so I don't think that really matters. He pitched fine
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: in that game. It wasn't his best outing, but he
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: did alright in that game, and he picked up a win,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: give up two runs and five and two thirds walk
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: too many guys though. Like I said, but his overall
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: numbers are good, low hit rate, low walk rate, reasonably
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. However, as I was alluding to, his
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Mets are not as good as you
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: would think. In one hundred and fifty nine at bats,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: they have a two to seventy average and seven to
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: ninety nine ohps against him, forty six strikeouts and twenty
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: two walks, although seventeen of those walks are Sodo. Sodo
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: is listed here, so maybe he is active again here.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Mets probably need to hope that's the case, because he's
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: one of their guys that does the most damage against Wheeler.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: But Wheeler, Yet, it does look like this is not
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: the most ideal matchup here, facing a lineup that just
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: saw him, that actually puts up decent numbers against him,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: and in a huge sample because they're really familiar with him.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Problem is the Mets they're going with Zach Thornton, I'm
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: pretty sure is their listed starter here. I don't know
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: what to think about that he's not listed on their
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: roster on ESPN right now because they called them back
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: up from Triple A. I don't know what we're gonna
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: get out of Thornton here. Man. He's made one start,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: I think, in his major league career so far. It
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: was earlier this year, and he wasn't very good. I
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: can look up what it was. I think he went
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: like four innings. Oh hold on, I'm gonna look it up,
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Zach Thornton, let me see.
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was on May twentieth against Washington. He went
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: four and a third innings, gave up four and runs
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: only on four hits though three strikeouts, two walks. It
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: was not a very good outing though he threw eighty pitches,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: so he threw way too many pitches. He's got an
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: eight point three to one ERA and one point three
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: eight whip and yeah, I didn't bring it up in
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: the same window, but whatever. So those are Thornton's numbers there.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: I would not trust him. Man. Wheeler is obviously the
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: better start, but the money is backing the Mets here
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: eighty three percent of the tickets, seventy eight percent of
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: the cash on Philly at about minus one fifty something here.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, I get it. I know the Mets should
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: have a spark from firing their manager whatever, but I
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: don't think I would want to do this. I mean,
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, I mean I don't want to do it obviously.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess that the argument is also that
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Phillies just favored by too much here on the road,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: but obviously there are reasons for it. I don't know, man,
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: I mean to me, I think Philly is still probably
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: gonna win this game, but obviously there are some question
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: marks with it there. I think more of the negatives
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: go against the Mets here than against Philly though, So
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: you know, just there are a lot of factors in
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: that game, obviously not on my card. Kyle, what's up?
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out all right, trying to get through
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: these games. Man, this is bad. I don't even think
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: I'm halfway through yet. This is crazy. Seattle and Cleveland,
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: this game Castillo. It's Cantillo. Yeah, Cleveland is returning home
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: from a road trip. And actually they're the other team
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: that I was thinking of that had three series A
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: three series road trip. They're returning from Milwaukee, Houston, and Chicago,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: so that's a little bit less bad that they stayed
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: in the Central time zone for this entire thing. Well,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I think they're in the Eastern time zone though, where
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: they are. But still that's not that bad returning back home.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: But it is still bad to be in a return
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: home spot. So yes, they are still in a fade
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: spot in the return home. They've been away from home
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: for a while. They might get distracted being back at
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: home here. They're coming out of a big win over
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: the White Sox yesterday, as the White Sox so the
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: team that's battling them for the division right now, so
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: they're coming up of a big series. Returning home could
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: be a letdown spot. Plus the home distraction spot not good,
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: although maybe Seattle's on a team they will totally overlook here.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: Cleveland had the day off yesterday though Philadelia excuse Seattle
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: did not. Seattle did lose to Pittsburgh though, and they're
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: only traveling from Pittsburgh to Cleveland, which is a very
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: short travel spot there. But Seattle did play yesterday, so
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: they are at a rest disadvantage. But still the travel
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: spot is way better for Seattle here than for Cleveland,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: so I would be possibly considering fade in Cleveland here. Cleveland,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: of course didn't play yesterday. We're talking about Seattle. Seattle
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: usedlief or three relief pitchers, but spire for one pitch.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: Seattle's got the better bullpen in my opinion here though,
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: even though the ranks slightly less Cleveland fifteenth, Seattle seventeenth,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: but Seattle's got the better bullpenny ray, I think they
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen, even though Cleveland is rested. But
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: these are both okay bullpens here. I think Seattle's is
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: actually a good bullpen. Though offensively, both teams have had
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: their issues Seattle twenty seventh right now, Cleveland twenty eighth.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: Seattle dealing with some offensive injuries. Though Seattle's going with
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Luis Castillo, and I don't know what's happened to him. Man.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: He's been like a staple of their rotation. He's been
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: a pretty steady picture for them, steady presence in their rotation.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: And this year he has not been good. Five point
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: two two e array, one point four whip. This is
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: not good. I think they kind of probably hurt his
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: confidence though, because they took him out of the starting
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: rotation put him in the bullpen. I think that's bad.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: Like I think, if you have a guy that's a
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: veteran like him and he's been your starting rotation for
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: years and years and he's been a pretty decent pitcher,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: I think one of the last things you want to
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: do is put him in the bullpen and hurt his confidence,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Just let him regain his
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: confidence in the starting rotation. So I don't know why
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Seattle did that. I mean, I do know why, because
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: he was struggling, but I still don't think they should have.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: Castillo somehow is better on the road this year four
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: point eight five roady array, which is still not good,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: but it makes no sense because Seattle's pitchers almost all
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: do better at home in that picture friendly stadium, So
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know why that's the case there. Castillo has
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: not been pitching well recently, though a couple of these
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: recent appearances have been out of the bullpen. Then his
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: walk rate has actually been pretty low recently, but he's
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: still not really been that good. He hasn't gone that
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: deep into some of these outings, and I don't know,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: there are just a lot of question marks with him
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: here on the season. He's got a high hit rate,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is a little bit too high as well.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: Strike out rate is okay, but yeah, he's been struggling.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: But again, if you look at his overall career stats,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: this is really really hard to explain, Like he hasn't
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: had like a significant injury recently or anything unless he's
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: injured now. Like, I don't know what the deal is here,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: Like there's something going on because his career numbers are
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: way better than this, so I keep thinking that at
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: some point he's gonna be better. Again, I have no
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: idea what's going on with him. He's facing a weak
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: Cleveland offense here though that's dealing with injuries. His numbers
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland are not that good though these current Cleveland
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: hitters forty three at bats, two seventy nine average allout
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: seven oh six ops isn't too bad, but it's still
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: not excellent. Twelve strikeouts, two walks, that's pretty good. Maybe
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Castillo can do well here though he gets at least
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: he gets a weak offensive draw here and he is
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road. But I really
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: don't know him. Man and Cleveland, you know in the
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: return homes about their offense might be a little bit worse. Off.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland, Like I said, Joey Cantillo
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: four point zero five RRA. His whip is not good
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: though one point four. He is a little bit better
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: at home three point seven four home ERA. He was
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: really good in his last starting against Houston. His last
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: two starts have been good against Detroit and on the
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: road at Houston, where he went eight or eight innings
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: along one on run, nine strikeouts, one walk, four hits.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: That was an excellent start from him. So it looks
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: like you could argue that he is coming into form
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: a little bit here. I don't know if I really
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: trust him. Though his hit rate is pretty low, his
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: walk rate is definitely too high, his strikeout rate is
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: decent and off his numbers against Seattle are pretty decent
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: sixteen A. They have a lot of guys who have
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: faced him though, two fifty average six to eighty one
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: oh ps, seven to three strike a walk ratio. So
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Cantillo actually might be the better pitcher to back here.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: I don't want to back Cleveland though in a return
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: home spot. I mean, I think the spot is really
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: bad for them, But I don't want to back Seattle either.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Here Cleveland fifty four percent of tickets, seventy one percent
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Cleveland, they're basically at a pick
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: them price at around minus one ten. I don't really
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: have a whole lot to say about this. The money's
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: also backing the over here, Yeah, I mean, I could
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: see the argument for the over where you have two
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: pitchers that really are not elite here, you know, maybe
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: the over could come through here. But Cleveland plays a
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: lot of low scoring games at home too, so I
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: don't know if I would really want to do that. Plus,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: the total is low, it's mostly seven and a half's,
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: and you know that if it's low, that pretty much
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: is the oddsmaker's telling you they think it's gonna be
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game, which does seem crazy given that
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: this is a This is not a good pitching matchup
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: here really, so you don't expect to see a total
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: that low at this pitching matchup. But that does kind
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: of tell you something. All right, Kansas City and the
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: White Sox this game. Kansas City has not actually decided
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: on a starter yet. Here we can handicap it with
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: colek here because it looked like he was gonna start.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know why he wouldn't, so I don't know.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he has an injury or what
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: the deal is here. The White Sox were off yesterday
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: and they're staying at home, but they're coming to have
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: a big divisional series against Cleveland. I know this is
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: also a divisional series of the White Sox, or excuse me,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: the Royals, or a team that probably are not going
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: to be paid much attention to because they're not good
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: and they're in last place. Kansas City did play yesterday, though,
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: they're having to travel up from Tampa Bay and they
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: have a rest disadvantage, so that's an advantage to the
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: White Sox. The White Sox are staying at home and
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: had yesterday off, Kansas City having to travel from Florida
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: and with no days off. That's not good for Kansas City.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: Kansas City who's two relief pitchers yesterday. Neither bullpen is
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: very good, but Kansas City's is worse. They're twenty ninth
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: right now and their era is one of the worst
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: as well. They're not one of the ones above five,
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: but close. They're not a good bullpen. The White Sox
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: are not great, but they're better than Kansas City at
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: twenty seconds. So the White Sox have a rest edge,
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge. They have an offensive edge as they're
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: They've fallen off a little bit, but they are eleventh
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: right now, tied with the Giants, who I think are
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: definitely the lesser of those two offenses. The White Sox
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: are fairly decent. The Royals have not been that good.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: They're nineteenth right now in offense, so the White Sox
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: do have an offensive edge as well. Do they have
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: a starting pitching edge here? I would say no. We
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's gonna be cole like or not
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: for Kansas City, though Coleck is listed as day to day.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: I think that's why they're undecided. So it would be
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: his turn in the rotation, but I don't know if
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: he's actually gonna start or not. He's got a four
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: point one five v one point one to nine whip
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. He's a little bit less on the
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: road or a little bit worse on the road. Four
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: point three ROADI a ray. He got absolutely obliterated by
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis in his last start, though that is not
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: a good sign he got. He gave up nine earned
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: runs and one and two thirds innings there on nine hits,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: one walk, no strikeouts. That was really really ugly, So
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: that really really destroyed his numbers here. Now he's been
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: better than that in every other start obviously, I mean,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: he can't really be much worse than that. Will he
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: bounce back if he even pitches today, Will he bounce back?
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It looks like maybe an injury came
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: into play in that start, so we don't even really
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: know if he's healthy here. I don't think I would
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: want to back Colek here though, ment al though his
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: numbers are all right here, hit rate is alright, his
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: walk rate is definitely low. His strikeout rate is not
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: high though, So he's another contact pitch, so one of
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: those guys the advanced analytics do not like Colek against
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. Let me see, he does not have
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: good numbers here. In sixteen at bats, three twelve average,
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: eleven to thirty nine ops. Those are not good numbers.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: And even if they push him back, he's still gonna
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: pitch in this series, probably, but yeah, those are the
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: numbers if he does pitch today, he is coming off
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: a really bad start. He looks like he's not that healthy,
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: and his matchup numbers are not good, so he looks
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: fatable here. David Sandlin, the young pitcher. I think he
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: might be a rookie right now for the White Sox.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: He is pitching for the White Sox here. He's twenty five, though,
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: so I think he had kind of a delayed start
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: to his major league career. He's made two starts in
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: one relief appearance so far. He had a really good
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: start in his major league debut against Minnesota, but he's
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: been bad since then. However, he got a bad draw
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: on his second out of me because he faced Minnesota again,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: so literally the one team that had experience again and
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: saw him again, but they shelled him. And then he
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: was bad against Philadelphia too, so I don't really see
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: how we could trust Sandlin here. He's got an eight
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: point one ERA, one point four to three whip, fourteen
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: to seven strike out walk ratio in thirteen to third innings,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: twelve hits allowed, so the walk number is bad. The
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: rest of those numbers are not that bad, although he's
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: allowed four home runs as well, which is not that good.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: Of course, the Royals had never seen him before, so
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: he does have that advantage at least with the unfamiliarity.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's gonna be enough, though. I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: think this game probably is an over. You know, you
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: might be able to play the over even with Kansas
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: City being undecided because Colec. Even if Colec pitches, he
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: has bad matchup numbers, Kansas City might be going with
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game. If it's not him. I don't know
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: who started, you know, the game five games ago, whoever
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: it was, it did not go well for them. Oh
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: that was the Colec game though, so let me see.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: I don't even dude, I don't know who Kansas City
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: would be going with here. If they flip flop, maybe
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: they would go with whoever pitched the day before that,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: which would be Seth. Lugo. Looks like he'd be next up,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: because it looks like, oh, no, Lugo pitched yesterday, so
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: it can't be him, so they already pushed Kolik back.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: It looks like so Lugo pitched yesterday, so it's not
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: gonna be him or Cameron or a Villa or walk up,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: probably because they all pitched. I mean, I guess if
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: they were gonna go with another it would be Walka.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: I guess if they're really gonna try to go with
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: another starter, but they'd be moving him up. But he
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: is scheduled to pitch tomorrow right now, So I don't know. Man,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: this could be a bullpen game for Kansas City here,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think an over could be a way
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: to look here. You got two bad bullpens. The starting
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: pitching set up here is very questionable. We have fifty
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: six percent of tickets on the under, ninety four percent
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, the numbers eight and
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: a half on the total, which is not that high,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: and juice to the under. So yeah, I think the
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: over makes the most sense there. In that game, White
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: Sox are getting the money at minus one thirty four,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: so here sixty seven percent of ticket, seventy six percent
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: of the casual on the White Sox. I wouldn't disagree because,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: as I already said, the White Sox have a day
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: of rest here and they're staying at home, so they
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: do have that advantage there, and they do have the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: better bullpen still, so I wouldn't really disagree with the
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: White Sox. The big series of the weekend basically besides
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox Yankees, I guess, but this is probably
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: bigger really because these teams are actually good, whereas the
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are not good. The Cubs and Milwaukee on
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: Apple TV here this is a big series. Man. Milwaukee
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: has a six and a half game advantage over Chicago
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: right now in the division, so I think the Cubs
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: are going to be the more motivated team here. Milwaukee's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: returning over from the road. They went to Atlanta and Cincinnati.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: They had yesterday off though, so Milwaukee does have a
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: huge rest advantage here because in the last two days,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee has played one game and the Cubs have played three.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: So Milwaukee has a huge rest advantage here. But I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: still don't want Milwaukee because they're returning home from the road,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: So I don't like that. You know, road trip return
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of times you'll be distracted. You have to
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: get back to home life. Although maybe the Cubs will
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: grab their attention because it is still the team that's
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: closest to them in the division. But again it's a
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: horrible spot for the Cubs too, because again the Cubs
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: played a doubleheader two days ago. They played yesterday as well,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: they swept the Mets, although I don't think that's gonna
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: put them in a letdown spot. They are traveling from
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: New York here with no time off, so the rest
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: edge is heavily in favor of Milwaukee though, because again
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: they didn't play yesterday, whereas the Cubs played yesterday and
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: played two games a day before that, So big advantage
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: rest wise for Milwaukee here. Milwaukee has the better bullpen
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: in my opinion as well, and didn't have to use anybody,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: whereas look at the Cubs bullpen usage the last two days.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: Everybody has come out of the bullpen the last two days,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: and in fact, four of their relief pitchers pitched on
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: both Wednesday and Thursday. This Cub's bullpen, you gotta avoid
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: them here. I mean, this is just bad, dude. Even
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: though they're not a bad bullpen. They're ranked tenth right now.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: The Brewers are actually twelve. For the Brewers have the
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: much much much more rested bullpen, and they have a
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: better bullpen at ra so they're the better bullpen. Brewers
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: have a big bullpen at here. You're gonna have to
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: pay a lot if you want Milwaukee here though, because
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: The Brewers also have a huge starting pitching advantage in
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: this game, so there are just way too many advantages
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: for Milwaukee here in the matchup. Dude, Milwaukee. They also
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: have a comparable offense to the Cubs. The Cubs might
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: be a little bit better at six Milwaukee's tenth, but
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee can definitely hang with their hitting. Colin Ray is
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Cubs. Not great four point nine to
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: nine ERA, one point four whip, really bad on the
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: road seven point one nine Roadie Ray. That is not good.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: He actually had a shutout last time at home against
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: Toronto for five and a third, but he was pitching
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: really poorly prior to that, so I think that's more
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: of an outlier against kind of a weak offense. I
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: do not trust Ray here. His overall numbers are bad.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: High hit rate, pretty high walk rate, low strikeout rate.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Not a lot to like here. His numbers against Milwaukee
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: fifty seven at bats three sixteen average allowed, eight thirty
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: nine oh ps, seven to eight strikeout walk ratio. None
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: of that is good. So he does not have a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: good matchup here either. And he's going up against Jacob Mizerowski.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: As you could probably guess, already so huge starting pitching
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: edge from Milwaukee here one point four to five ERA
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: point seven to five whip absolutely ridiculous, numbers slightly worse
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: at home somehow, one point five to eight. Homi Ra
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: Mizierowski is just dominating. I mean, what can you say.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: He's allowed no more than three or runs in any
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: start this season. He's allowed zero runs in what is
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: that eight of his last ten outings. I think that's
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: what that is. That's absolutely insane. Yeah, so he's probably
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: the best pitcher in baseball already. He has a ridiculously
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: low hit rate almost one every two innings, pretty low
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: walk rate, to in a really high strikeout rate, which
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: I think is probably the highest in baseball. I mean,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: it's just ridiculous. He's still throwing like one hundred three
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: miles an hour in the sixth inning of a ball game,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: like nobody's ever really done that. Before. You look at
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: that you know chart of the fastest pitches thrown, which
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: is usually all relief pitchers are gonna be in there
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: because they come in for like one two winnings and
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: they're thrown absolute gas. Mizierowski is still half of that chart,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: and he's doing that, you know, six innings into a game.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: It's it's insane. No other starting pitcher even even makes
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: that chart of the fastest pitches thrown this season. Mizierowski
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: gets the Cubs, as you could probably guess, good numbers
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: one fifty seven, average allowed, four thirty eight ohps and
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: at bats twenty six, strikeout, six walks domination here. Uh,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: you know, even though I know it's a return home
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: spot for the for the Brewers, this is probably one
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: of the rare scenarios where I would still be looking
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: towards that team in the return home spot. I mean,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: they just have way too many edges here. They have
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: a huge rest advantage, they have the bullpen advantage, they
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: have the way better starting pitcher. There's not a huge
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: offensive difference here. Total here is low at seven. Money
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: coming in towards the under. I mean, it is a
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: Mizerowski game, but there's not a whole lot of leeway
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: there with that total being seven. Milwaukee is getting the
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: money eighty one percent of tickets, ninety three percent of
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: the cash on them, But you have to lay like
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: minus two sixty with Milwaukee here. You can't do that obviously,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: But maybe it's a scenario where you do look to
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: lay the run line with Milwaukee. I mean, you could
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: go Milwaukee over their team total, but I don't. I
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: actually don't like that as much because their offense might
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: struggle a little bit in the return home spot with rest.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: You don't really want to take Mizierowski out of the
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: equation because he's one of the best things about Milwaukee here.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: So you're paying a price. You're paying for Mizierowski if
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: you're gonna you know, if you're gonna pay for this though,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: so you know. I mean, obviously that's the thing. If
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: you want to go Milwaukee over their team total, you
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: don't have to pay the price for their pitcher. So
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: that's the thing about that. Yeah, I don't know, man,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: I think maybe laying a Milwaukee run line is still
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: what makes the most sense in that game. I'm gonna
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: be right back and then I'm gonna finish baseball here,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: and it's still gonna take another hour to finish everything
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: because we still have WNBA where I actually have a play.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: I have one more play here and it's in the WNBA.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: I'm skipping the World Cup today. I know World Cup
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: has been good, but I just don't see a spot
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: that I really like in the World Cup WNBA. I
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: was kind of questioning it, but I think we have
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: a good spot in the WNBA and we need to
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: get back on track because I'm not happy about being
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: six and four after I was five and oh to
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: start the season. But remember two of those losses were
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: real bullshit. I'm gonna be right back and talk about
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: the rest of these games here. I do have one
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: more baseball play here as well. All right, next game
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: is Colorado and Minnesota. I mean this really really reads
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: as an over type of series here. I mean, you
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: have two really bad bullpens here. Both teams were off
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: yesterday though, so I don't know if I love the
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: over in that scenario where the offense is might have
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: cooled off a little bit the bullpen's arrested, but these
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: are still horrible bullpens. Minnesota just faced the Dodgers and
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: they got swept. They lost two of those games by
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: one run. Though they're staying at home, so maybe there's
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an advantage there, but possible let
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: down maybe off the Dodger series. Rockies are coming in
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: off of beating the Red Sox and the Red Sox
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: should have swept that series. The Red Sox had the
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: lead late in both of the games that the Rockies won,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox had the leads. So the Red Sox
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: are winning in the late innings of all three of
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: those games, and somehow blue two of them. Colorado is
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: going on the road here, but starting a road trip
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: usually is kind of a positive spot. Usually you are focused.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: These bullpens are really bad. Minnesota is the worst bullpen
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: in baseball. Their e RA is significantly worse than every
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: other one, and their whip is also the worst, horrible,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: horrible bullpen. The Rockies are also one of the bullpens
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: with an ERA above five, which are the A is
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: the Rockies, Washington and Minnesota really really bad bullpen's going
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: in this? This is This is a ridiculously bad bullpen matchup.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: The Rockies have been hitting again their number seven, but
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: they are having to go on the road now where
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: they're probably not gonna hit as well. Minnesota is eighth,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: tied with the Braves. I think they're overrated at eighth though.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: This starting pitching matchup. Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching for the Rockies.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: He's actually been all right. I mean, the advanced analytics
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: guys hate Sugano man, like, they don't think he's good.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: He's kind of a junk pitcher. He was alright last
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: year with Baltimore, and then the analytics guys are like, oh,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: he's gonna die in Colorado. But that hasn't really been
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: the case. He's been one of their better startars. He's
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: got a four point three to one ERA one point
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: twenty nine whip. That's not great, but it's not bad.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: He's actually worse on the road, which is kind of hilarious.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Four point four to six Roady ra. I don't know
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: how he's better at cors Field, but interesting. He pitched
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: well last time out at cors Field against Pittsburgh. He
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: was good and that's a pretty good Pittsburgh offense, although
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: they are worse on the road, you know. I mean,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: he's had some stars where he's been bad in here,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: but his one recent bad start was at the A's stadium,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: So he did pitch bad in that stadium, got massive
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: amounts of run support, and still won the game. His
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: overall numbers, his hit rate is right around one per inning.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is reasonably low, really low strikeout rate
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: of course, because he throws junk. He gets people to
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: hit into contact or soft contact. But he's not a
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: bad pitcher in my opinion. Against Minnesota, they have a
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: two sixty seven average and nine to seventy nine ops
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: against him, though in fifteen of bats they only have
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: six hitters who have faced him one strikeout, one walk,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: but that's still Obviously this is not the greatest matchup
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: for Segana. It looks like so he might not pitch
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: too well here. Taj Bradley is pitching for Minnesota. He's
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: been okay if you look at the season in its entirety.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: He's been all over the place, though, just up and down.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: We took some losses trying to back him on the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: show four point one to one Era, one point three
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: to two Whip. I've always thought that he had talent,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: though he has strikeout stuff. I don't think he's that
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: bad of a pitcher, and I don't know Tampa Bay
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: decided to get rid of him. He's been good at
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: home this year, actually, three point eight to two homey Ray,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: that's not bad. He's pitching a little bit better again. Recently.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: He's gone at least five innings in his last two starts.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: His team won both starts he picked up and winning
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: one of them. He had eleven to three strikeout walk
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: ratio in eleven and two thirds innings. That was pretty
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: good over his last two starts there, although I know
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: he gave up four runs to Saint Louis, but he
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: pitched better than that makes it look. So he seems
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: to be kind of coming back into for him a
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: little bit over his last two starts here. He's got
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate. Like I said, that makes me
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: think that he does have talent because he gets strike
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: guys out. He's got a low hit rate. His problem
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: is the walks. He walks too many guys. He's got
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: to fix and that is kind of a fixable thing.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: Although as you've seen, as I've talked about, a lot
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: of times, when a guy fixes that, all the problems arise,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: like with Arraghetti, who we're gonna try to fade today,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: Like a lot of times these pictures become too hitable
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: against Colorado, Bradley has actually been really good and thirty
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: one at bats one sixty one average, allowed four ninety
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: three oh ps, eight to three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: I think Bradley does actually draw a pretty good match
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: up here. I think Minnesota first five actually makes some
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: sense here. I think Bradley is the more talented pitcher here,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: has the higher ceiling, even though I don't hate Sugano.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: But you also get the better of the matchup numbers
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: here with Bradley. But you do have to lay a
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: price for this seventy three percent of tickets ninety two
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Minnesota there at minus won
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: sixty something here. Of course, Colorado is always going to
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: be a big underdog pretty much. I think Minnesota first
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: five makes sense though, just isolate the starting pitching matchup here.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: Lay like you'd have to lay a half run with Minnesota.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: But I'm obviously this is not gonna make my card,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: but maybe that makes sense. Money is also still backing
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: the over here. This might be a series where we
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: do come in and find an over to play in
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: this series, but I'm not gonna do it in this game. Again,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: I think Bradley might actually pitch okay here. These are
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: not the worst pitchers that you're gonna get in this series,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: so we'll wait and see, Like if there's a better
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup in the series to take the to take
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: the over all, right, Miami and Saint Louis. This game
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: on the service, This looks like an under to me,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: and maybe it will be Saint Louis. Yesterday's game was
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: postponed against Arizona, so Saint Louis had yesterday off and
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: they're staying at home. Miami also had yesterday off, so
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: both teams have rest here. So Saint Louis initially was
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: going to be at a rest disadvantage, but now they
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: have the same rest and they're not traveling. Miami is
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: traveling from Miami, but starting road trip a lot of
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: times is a focused spot because you want to get
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: off on the right foot on the road trip. Miami
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: is a good bullpen. They're ranked third, and their era
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: kind of backs that up to they're pretty good. Saint
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: Louis not really as good, but they are rested. At
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: least Saint Louis is ranked twenty first, their ERA is
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: a little bit better than that. Like, I don't think
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: they're actually a bottom ten bullpen. I think they're kind
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: of a middle of the pack bullpen. Offensively, Miami eighteenth,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is thirteenth, tied with Houston. So these have
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: been middle of the pack offenses. This is a picture
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: from the ballpark though, and these are not offenses that
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: really light it up, so that makes this look kind
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: of underish as well. I always talk about when teams
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: have rest that that helps the under as well, because
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's are rested, the offense can cool off a
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: little bit. Miami has their best pitcher on the mound,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Max Meyer, who has been on bereavement leave, but it
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: looks like he is pitching today. Got to wonder if
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: the bereavement is going to affect his mental state at all,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: though it could also be a positive, right, like maybe
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: he wants to, you know, put that stuff out of
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: mind and just go back and pitch, you know what
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: I mean. But he's been really good two point eight
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: ERA one point one to six whip. He's actually undefeated
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: eight to no. I don't want to jinx him. He's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse on the road though, three
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: point sixty six road ray. This might be one of
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: the better road matchups that he draws though, because he's
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: facing kind of a middling offense in a pitcher friendly
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: park here. Myer's pitched pretty well recently, really high strikeout rate, recently,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: although his walk rate's been a little bit too high
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: as well, so you know, not all good, but mostly good.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. His
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: walk rate is the worst number that he has. It's
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: not that bad though, and his strike cut rate is high.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: So yeah, overall, I think Meyer's good. I like him,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: you know, like watching him in the past. I always
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: thought that he was a pretty good pitcher, and that
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: has been the case this year against Saint Louis. Yeah,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: he's been good against them in eighteen at bats. They
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: have only five hitters to have faced him, one sixty
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: seven average, four seventy two obs, five to two strike
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio. So it looks like he draws a
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: good match up here. Really, the only guy that does
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: damage against him is Jordan Walker, who has the only
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: extra RaSE hit a double. Walker is a really talented
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: young hitter. But Meyer looks like he draws a good
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: match up here. I think he should pitch well here.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: Michael McGreevy, so we have a lot of m's here.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: It's the MMMM matchup, the M and M matchup here. McGreevy.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's another guy that the advanced analytics guys
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: hate because he pitches to contact, but he doesn't put
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: too many guys on base. He was supposed to pitch yesterday,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: so he is just gonna pitch today. So that was
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: the case with both Arizona and Saint Louis. They're not
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: messing with their starting rotation. They're just gonna go with
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: the next guy up. McGreevy three point three five, Yarra
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: one point one five Whip. I think McGreevy had a
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: better matchup yesterday though against Arizona, because his matchup numbers
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: against Miami here. I actually I think they're not as good.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: Mcgreevy's been good at home though, two point twenty five
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: Homeyra wasn't really good in his last star gave up
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: five runs on the road at Kansas City. But he's
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: been generally pretty good. He's allowed more than three on
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: runs only three times this season. Low hit rate, pretty
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: low walk rate too. His strikeout rate is really low
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: as well. Though. Like I said, he pitches to contact,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: but sometimes he advanced analytics. You know, I think they
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: get overstated a bit, you know, like, oh, this guy
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: just doesn't blow guys away, and yet we all like
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers that blow guys away. But if he's pitching effectively
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: and not putting guys on base, I mean, that is
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: what he's doing. Like if you can repeat the same
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: thing over and over again, you know what I mean.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: Trying to go against it is the definition of insanity basically.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: So I don't think McGreevy is that battle though. Yes, granted,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: maybe there could be some regression in here, but he's
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: also done this for like a bit, you know, like
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: last year. He pitched like half the season last year
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: and his numbers were yeah, worse than this, So there
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: might be some regression here, but he wasn't exactly bad.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: McGreevy though against Miami. You know is I said his
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: numbers are bad, I mean they're mediocre. Actually, in twenty
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: three at bats to sixty one average, seven to fifty
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: five ops, it's not that bad three to two strike
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: up walk ratio. They only have six hitters with face him.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: I still think this game does look like an under.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: I think that's the way I would play this game.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: You got a lot going for you with the under here,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: but the money's backing the over. I have no idea
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: why fifty eight percent of tickets ninety percent of the
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: cash on the over the totals eight. But again, you
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: got rest here, rested bullpens. I know Saint Louis's bullpen's
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: not totally trustworthy, but they're not the worst bullpen. You
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: got Miami with a really good bullpen. I think you
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: have a decent starting pitching matchup here. So yeah, under
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: makes sense to me here. Money is also backing Miami
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: sixty one percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: cash on Miami. You're getting basically a pick'm price on that.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: And I wouldn't disagree with Miami. Meyer I think is
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher. He's got the better stuff, better matchup
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: numbers as well, and you got the better bullpen with Miami.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't disagree with Miami in that game either,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: But I think an under makes a little bit more sense.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: Speaking of which, we have my next play. This one,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: you know, just kind of feels wrong, but I kind
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: of like this. We're gonna take the first five under
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: in the A's and Angels, and I know I've tried
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: some first five unders with the Angels and it's not
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: gone well. But I think we get a really good
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: number on this at four and a half at minus
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: one eight team four and a half is is pretty good,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: like when you think it's gonna be a lower scoring
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: first five, A four and a half is a pretty
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: nice number to see out there, like I was expecting
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: it wouldn't be that good. But the full game total
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: here is fairly high because well, actually it's only eight
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: and a half, so that actually surprised me more that
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: we're getting the four and a half here, although maybe
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: it makes sense, but full game we're seeing money all
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: over the over here, and that does worry. Maybe have
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the cash on the under ninety
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash on the over of the
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, But of course a lot of
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: that has to do with the fact that these are
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: horrible bullpens. These bullpens are miserably bad. So I'm taking
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: the bullpens out of the equation here. Both or excuse me.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: The A's played yesterday Anaheim did not. The A's use
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: five relief pitchers. The A's are traveling from San Francisco here,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: so they're going from the Bay Area down to southern California.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Not the worst trip to be on. The Angels had
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: yesterday off though, and they are staying at home. So
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: the Angels do have a better spot here really, so
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: they have the rest and travel advantage here the Angels do.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: But still I don't like these bullpens. We're taking them
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: out of the equation. The A's are twenty third, but
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: they have one of the worst bullpen the Rays. They've
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: been awful recently. Yeah, nope, avoid and the Angels bullpen
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: is twenty fourth of their eras better, but still we're
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: gonna avoid. I like the starting pitching here though, obviously,
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: and yes, the A's have a good offense number four,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: the Angels not quite as much as seventeenth. But I
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: think the pitchers can do well here. Man, you're looking
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: at these pictures. These are not name pitchers here, and
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: you know, I kind of like that when you have
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: pictures that aren't name pitchers and you get to go
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: under with them. Although I know I'm going over with
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: some pitchers that aren't name pitchers either. But JT. Gin
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: might be the A's best starting pitcher this year. He's
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: got a three point one six ERA one point two
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: to one whip is not horrible. He's been really good
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: on the road though, one point nine to nine Roady
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: Ray and it makes sense, you know, you can explain
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: it because that A's stadium is really bad and his
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: numbers still aren't even really that bad in that stadium.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: But he's been good on the road, so I like that. Yes,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: he did just face the Angels, so I know. I
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: don't love necessary backing starting pitchers where the offenses literally
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: just saw both pitchers, and that is the case here,
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: So familiarity a lot of times I think the offenses
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: have the advantage, but I don't think so here when
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: you look at the matchup numbers. Gin didn't do that
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: well last time out at home against Anaheim, but I
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: think it's better for him that he's pitching on the
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: road here. And he did actually face Anaheim on the
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: road I think earlier in the season. Yeah, and he
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: was excellent in that start earlier in the year in
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: middle May. Eight innings, two hits allowed, although he did
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: allow two runs, ten strikeouts, one walk, he was really
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: good in that start at Anaheim, So I think maybe
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: this start is going to be a little bit more
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: in that direction than this where he gave up four
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: runs and five and a third last time at home
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: against Anam. I actually think he bounces back from that,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: he's way better on the road. And if you look
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: at his numbers against Anaheim overall pretty good and sixty
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: one at best, So even though they have a lot
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: of experience against him, it hasn't really helped them that much.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: Twenty one to four strike out walk ratio is really good,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: two thirteen batting average allowed, six thirty nine obs. So
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: he's got some good matchup numbers here. So I like
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: gin here, and we're also going to back Walbert Urainya,
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: who I think this guy is good, dude, Like I
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna be one of the better pitchers that
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: Anaheim has here. He's still really young at twenty two.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point four to one ERA, his
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: whip is still too high one point three to one.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: He's got some walk issues there, but I like him.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: I think he's good. He's been excellent at home one
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: point eight five ERA, so both of our pitchers here
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: have a sub to ERA in their home road splits. Here.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: He just shut out the A's in that same game
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: he pitched against again in that game, he went five
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: shutout innings in that a stadium, and that is a
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: really good sign if you go into that a stadium
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: and you allow nothing, basically, really good sign there. He
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: let four hits, six strikeouts, no walks, so his walk
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: number has also gone down over his last couple of starts.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: He was pretty good in both those starts. That's a
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: pretty good sign. He's actually just kind of pitching better
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: in general recently. That's a good sign. The fact that
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: he pitched really well in that a stadium is a
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: good sign. Well, he pitched really well against them earlier
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: in the season two in mid May here at home.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: He shut them out for six innings in that game two,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: So he's gone whatever that is, eleven shutout innings so
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: far against the A's here. So he's been really good
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: against the A's Specifically, he's allowed a low hit rate
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: this season. His strikeout rate is decent, he allows he
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: issues a lot of ground balls or gets guys to
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: in into a lot of grounders, which is good. That's
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: part of the reason why he pitched pretty well in
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: that A's stadium. I think his walk rate is way
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: too high though, Like I said, his walks are a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: huge issue. Seems to be getting it under control a
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: little bit, and he's been excellent against the A's dude,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: even though their offense is good, he's had the upper
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: hand against them. So even after the A's saw him once,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: the A's had every advantage they could have, basically at
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: home in a better hitting park, and they still couldn't
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: do anything against him. So that leads me to believe
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: that he does have a good matchup here. He's got
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: thirty five at bats against the A's now two twenty
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: nine average, five ops eight to two strike out walk ratio,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: so he's been again quite good against them. Overall. I
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: like it. I think we have a good starting pitching
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: matchup here under first five, even though the full game
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: is getting the money on the over here, but the
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: obvious reasons we're taking the bullpens out, so Under is
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: the player there first five only. Of course, next game
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: Apple TV. This is one of the bigger matchups of
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: the weekend too, Dodgers and Podres, although San Diego, you know,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know about them, and they're nine
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: games behind the Dodgers right now, but they're gonna be
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: extra motivated. Probably San Diego is staying at home with
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: a day off here. Both teams have had yesterday off,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: so both teams have rest but San Diego staying at home,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: you think maybe they'd be in a letdown spot after
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: sweeping the Braves. Huge series for San Diego to sweep
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: the Braves, but obviously they're not gonna overlook the Dodgers,
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: so they're gonna be focused for this series. I'm not
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: really worried about the let down here. Are traveling in
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: from Minnesota, which is a little bit more of a
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: questionable spot here, you know. I talk about him. When
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: a team is in one of the more eastern time
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: zones and then they have to go all the way
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: out to the Pacific time zone and play a late game,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: it can mess with their biological clock. So that's not
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: great for the Dodgers here. They did just sweep Minnesota,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: like I said, but whatever. I mean, they're the better
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: team obviously, but some things seem to, you know, kind
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: of line up for San Diego here. San Diego does
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen here as well, and yeah, everybody's
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: rested here as well. Dodgers have a decent bullpen at fourth.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: San Diego is sixth, but San Diego has the second
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: best bullpen here. Ray They're like an elite bullpen pretty much,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: so I think they're better than the Dodgers, though Dodgers'
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not bad either. Dodgers are the number one
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: offense and San Diego is dead last at thirtieth, so
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: we have the best offense versus the worst offense here.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: So the Dodgers do have that edge, and the Dodgers'
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: offense is really good on the road. But this is
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: a pitcher on the ballpark here in San Diego. Dodgers
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: are going with Roki Sasaki. I don't know what to
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: think about him. Man. He's got a four point seven
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: to six ERA, one point two to nine whip, not
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: exactly great numbers here. He's not good on the road
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: six point one to nine Roady Ray, So that is
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: a bit of an issue. You don't really want to
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: back him when he's on the road. His last road
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: start was really ugly at the White Sox, and might
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: worry with a guy like Sasaki because he was starting
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: to bitch better, dude. He was figuring things out. But
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: once he ran into that bad start, it kind of
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: looks like it hung him over a little bit. He
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: had another kind of questionable start the next time out
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore, though it wasn't really that bad. It was
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: also at home though, but I worry that his mental
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: state is still not totally there, Like doesn't have the
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: mental toughness, so maybe he is a little bit out
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: of form right now. That would worry me a little
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: bit here. Uh. San Diego basically hasn't faced him though.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: Only France has ever faced him, not the France that
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about in the World cop. France is
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: for one against some of those strike outs, no walks,
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: So Sasaki does at least have an unfamiliarity edge. Year,
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: he's going up against Walker Buehler, and you know, Bueller,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's that good anymore. You know, he
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: really hasn't been good since he had his Tommy John
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: surgeries and whatever. But he's actually been pretty good recently,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: and it seems like pitching in San Diego has been
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: pretty helpful to him because it is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point nine to six ERA one
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: point three to two whip. That whip is too high,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: but his e ray's alright. He's been good at home though,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: like I said, three point three to two Homy Ray,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: and this month he's actually been really good. He has
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: a one point seven to one ERA this month. San
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: Diego's won his last three starts, and actually they won
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: seven of his last nine, which is pretty ridiculous. He's
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: got a twenty two to five strike out walk ratio
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: this month. He's been a little bit too hittable. But
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: he's actually been pretty good this month, and he's got
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: at least five innings and three of the four outings.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: He's faced slight weaker offenses here for the most part, though,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: but still, I mean, he is pitching better right now.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is still a little bit high on
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: the season, his walk rate is actually not that high anymore,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: so he's not really a walker anymore. And his strikeout
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: rate is reasonable, so he is actually yeah, I mean, bueller,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: you know, he might not be a guy you necessarily
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: want to completely avoid here against the Dodgers, who are
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: his former team, by the way, one of his former teams.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: I think he's faced them before anyway, He's got forty
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: nine at bats against them, two twenty four average, seven
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: to twenty three oh bs. Those are not bad numbers,
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: although they've hit him for a little bit of power
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: and they have ten walks against him and nine strikeouts.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: So he is a walker against them, so that is
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: not great the walk numbers there, but the you know,
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: overall his matchup isn't too bad there. This total is
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: really low at seven and a half. So the oddsmakers
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: are actually giving these starting pitchers some respect here. Part
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: of it is because it's Sandy a Go and their
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: offense stinks and it's a pitcher friendly ballpark here. Yeah.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: Actually I was gonna say undecided, but that's not true.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: That was San Francisco, which I'll talk about in a minute.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: That's the last game to talk about here. Dodgers a
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: minus one forty eight. Basically on the money line here,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: they're getting the money's seventy three percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: five percent of the cash on the Dodgers, I don't
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: know about that. Man. If it's gonna be a low
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: scoring game, it looks like there are some situational aspects
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: to this that kind of indicate towards San Diego a
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: little bit. Maybe you could take the shot with San
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: Diego as the underdog here. It looks almost too easy
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: to play. The Dodgers. Money is back in the over
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: seven and a half here, but I don't know about
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: that either. I could see maybe an undercoming in here,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: but you know, based on current form, I actually think
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: that maybe Bueller is a little bit preferable to Sasak.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: You get the better bullpen with San Diego here a
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: little bit of a better situational spot. I think maybe
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: San Diego as the dog could be the way to
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: look there. Wouldn't want I wouldn't want to do it though.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: And then we have Atlanta and San Francisco. San Francisco
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: played yesterday. They're staying at home though, but they did
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: lose to the A's yesterday, and their bullpen hasn't been
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: very good and they used guys yesterday. They used five guys,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: so that is not good. Atlanta has the bullpen edge.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is number one in bullpen. Atlanta also didn't play yesterday.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: But the problem is, well, actually there is not a problem.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's already on the Pacific coast. What am I saying?
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: I was thinking Atlanta would have to adjust to the
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: time zone, but they don't because they just got swept
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: in San Diego. So they're staying in California for this.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: So that's not bad for Atlanta either. They're already adjusted
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: to the time zone. They're the number one bullpen, and
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: it's by a pretty significant margin. Giants are ranked twenty fifth.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: They haven't been a very good bullpen, so that lines
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: up towards Atlanta. Here. Atlanta number eight in offense, tied
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: with Minnesota. But I think they're better than the Giants,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: who are tied in eleven with the White Sox. I
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: don't buy this Giant's off at all. I think the
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: Braves are the considerably better offense here, and they're pretty
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: good on the road. Although we do have a pitcher
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark here. Atlanta is going with Ronaldo Lopez. He's
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: back in their starting rotation. I don't know if that
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: means Atlanta has some more injuries here or what's going on.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: Because Lopez, I don't think he's that good dude. I
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: think he's a little bit of a head case too.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: He used to be good, not anymore. He's been pitching
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, and I think we've kind of
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: forgotten about him because he's still been around. He's just
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: been pitching out of the bullpen for a while. He's
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: got a three point five year ra one point three
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: to seven whip is not good though he's only slightly
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: worse on the road. His home road splits are not significant.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: He's been reasonably good in his last four outings. Pretty
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: good here overall, though I don't know. Man. The fact
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: that he's not even pitching that well out of the
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: bullpen generally, though, is not a good sign. Maybe he'll
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: be excited to get another chance in the starting rotation,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't started for a while. These numbers, a
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: lot of them look pretty ugly. His hit rate is
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: fairly good, his strike gout rate is okay, but his
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: walk number is horrible. He's got way too many walks here,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: so that is a huge problem here. I think his
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: stuff is kind of diminished too, now that he's like
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: in his thirties. He can pitch well against the Giants, though,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: I mean the Giants are a bad offense is a
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: good pitching park. The Giants actually don't have bad numbers
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: against him. They have a three to zero seven average
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: against them, so they hit for a lot of contact
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: against them. Their ops isn't that high, it's seven forty two,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: but that's still kind of average. Fifteen to four strike
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio in seventy five at bats. I don't
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: know if I really want to trust Lopez here man,
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: I'm making his return to the starting rotation. Overall numbers
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: worry me. Matchup numbers with worry me. Trevor McDonald was
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: supposed to pitch for the Giants, and he doesn't look
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: like he has an injury, so I don't know if
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: they're gonna start him or not. I think the reason
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: why he might not start is because he hasn't been
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: pitching well. But I don't know if he does pitch.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point nine to three ERA one
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: point three to four wipth. He's been inexplicably bad at
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: Home six point one home RA. Again, it makes no
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: sense because this is a more pitcher friendly park, but
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: McDonald has been pretty bad this past month. He hasn't
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: even made a four innings in his last two outings,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: both against the Cubs, though, but he also has a
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: fifteen to twelve strike got walk ratier this month. That
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: is some bad stuff. Overall numbers don't look too bad.
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: Low hit rate, his walk rate is becoming higher though
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: at his strike got rate is okay. He's got a
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: lot of ground ball outs, which is good, but I
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: don't think he's that bad of a pitcher, but he's
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: not a good form right now. I could not back
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: him here, even though Atlanta doesn't have any experience against him,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: so he does have a h an unfamiliarity edge if
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: he does even pitch here. But I don't know, man,
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, there are some advantages for Atlanta here. It
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: looks too easy, though, to play Atlanta at minus one
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: twenty or less than that. That looks way too easy
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: to play Atlanta, the team with the way better record.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: It's almost like the oddsmakers are begging you to play them.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: Seventy seven percent are daring you too, seventy seven percent
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on Atlanta though,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: So the money is back in Atlanta and backing the
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: over at eight and a half here, I could see
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: the over more than anything else here. I think you
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: have a I think you have some questionable pitching possibly
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: here in this game. With the way these starters look
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: like they're lining up at San Francisco not even deciding
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: on a starter yet, maybe you could take the shot
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: with the over here. This game is gonna be one
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna avoid. Though. There are some advantages to
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: Atlanta though, like the rest and the bullpen. So if
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: you do play Atlanta, you should go full game with it.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: But I don't really have much else to say about that.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the WNBA. Hopefully this will
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: be a little bit quicker. All these games are on
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: ie on and again. I think I was right about
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: all three WNBA games yesterday, and of course none of
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: them are on my card. So isn't that just great?
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: Washington at Connecticut. This is an ugly game here. Connecticut
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: just blew out Chicago, and a lot of times I
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: don't want to play on a team that just had
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: a blowout win, you know, because it looks too good. Right,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: you win by thirty points, I think you could be
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: in line for a little bit of a letdown. But
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: in this case, maybe not. Because Connecticut just ended a
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: bad losing streak. They've lost seven games in a row.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: I think Connecticut's bad, they're the worst team in the league.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: But the fact that they just got to win, I
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: think that's gonna help them a little bit. Like I
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: always say, when a team ends a losing streak, that's
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: a long losing streak, winning a lot of times will
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: give them a better uh shot in the next game,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: like it'll halt, they're losing momentum and they'll play better
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: in the next game. Although I know that hasn't really
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: been the case with Connecticut this year, but it could
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: set them up a little bit better here. Now. The
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: other thing that I like is they're staying at home
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: and they're playing Washington, and they literally just lost here
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: at home to Washington back on June seventeenth, So this
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: is kind of a quick revenge spot zigzag spot, and
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: I like to dig into it to see, like, is
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: there a reason why they lost this game by this much?
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: But I mean, this is kind of the case where
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: Washington just is the better team, so it made sense
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: that Washington beat them. Washington was actually an underdog though
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: in that game, believe it or not, So I think
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: Washington had some injuries or something, because they opened a
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: four and a half point favorite, and I see no
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: reason why Washington would have been an underdog against Connecticut
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: unless there were injuries going on here, and I think
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: there were. Connecticut wound up being a two and a
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: half point favorite in the game lost a game. But
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: what I look for is was there an outlier? And
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: the answer is actually yes, Although Connecticut did get out
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: rebounded here. They were the worst team in the game.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: They kind of got dominated in the paint. But the
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: free throw disparity was kind of insane in that Washington
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: did go to the line just seven more times, but
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: they were twenty nine for thirty from free throw from
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: the free throw line ninety seven percent. I mean, obviously
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be some regression there. You're not gonna shoot
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: ninety seven percent from the free throw line again with
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: that many free throw attempts, and the Sun only shot
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent, and that probably will positively regress a
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: little bit. Teams are not gonna shoot as bad from
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: the free throw line usually sixty five percent. That's kind
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: of ridiculous. Connecticut was also really bad from three point
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: range twenty percent. Washington was thirty nine percent, So there
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of three point regression that could
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: come here as well. H Washington hit only three more
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: threes though, so it was nine more points from three.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: But yes, they did sele have fourteen more points from
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: the free throw line, so that definitely affected the outcome there.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: So I do lean to Connecticut here to be the
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: you know, being a zigzag spot here and have some
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: regression here. Washington is also in a bad spot. Washington
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: is coming off two huge games against Minnesota where they
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: beat Minnesota on the road. They came back home and
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: they beat my play the other day by only losing
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: by two to Minnesota, and they were hanging around in
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: that game the whole time. So they're coming out of
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: two monster games. Now they have to go on on
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: the road for a single game against Connecticut. I don't
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: really see them being focused for that. Although their next
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: game is only against Portland, which is not really that
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: big of a game. I wish it was Atlanta their
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: next opponent after that, because then it would be a
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: Sandwich spot, and then if that would probably be enough
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: for me to give out Connecticut here, it already almost
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: is enough. I like Connecticut in this game. Connecticut is
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: back to being a four and a half point underdog,
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: by the way, so I think Washington's injured players are
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: probably back here. So you're getting Connecticut at a better
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: price here playing them as a dog. Eighty eight percent
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on Washington
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: at minus four and a half. Here, they're a public side,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: even though it looks like they're getting some of the money.
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: I would take Connecticut plus the points there, but then again,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: I still don't really necessarily want Connecticut off a blowout
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: win like that either, so I'll stay off it. But
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: I do kind of like it, although you do kind
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: of have to look like, does Connecticut have a huge
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: game up next? You know, that is part of the equation.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: They do play Dawn and then Minnesota twice in Golden State.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: Those are all kind of big games. But again, I
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: still don't think they're gonna overlook Washington after losing to
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: them at home and being a three win team, you
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: can't really overlook anybody. But yeah, I like Connecticut there.
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: That is not my play though. Portland and Chicago is
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: the game that I have the least gauge on here. Chicago, well,
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: it is a zigzag though, so I don't know. Maybe
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: I do have some gauge on this too, because Chicago
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: just annihilated Portland one oh one to seventy eight at home.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: So my initial read on this would be that you
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: want to fade Chicago after that, because after you have
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: a lopsided result like that, Chicago's probably not gonna do
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: the same thing again, right, They're probably gonna overlook Portland,
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: like we just blew these guys out, like this is
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: gonna be easy, you know. And they might have a
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: look ahead because they played Vegas twice in the next
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: two days, so that's big because Vegas is the returning
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: champs and one of the best teams in the league still,
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: so they might have a look ahead there. Uh. The
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: one thing that is a positive for Chicago though, is
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: the end and along Loup using streak. So a lot
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: of times when you end the losing streak, you're gonna
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: play well in the next game, so they might play
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: better here for that reason. They did beat Portland in
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: the first game of the season, by the way, in Portland,
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: but maybe Chicago does have some new momentum here. Now
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: for Portland, they're likely to show up because this team
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: just annihilated them, so they're gonna be embarrassed. They're probably
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: gonna show up. They don't have a big game up
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: next against Washington. Like I said, we have to dig
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: into this box score though, and the question is was
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: it an outlier? Chicago was a three and a half
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: point favorite in this game. Something of note here. Chicago
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: won the rebound battle easily, though it looks like they
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: kind of dominated in the paint. They did have seven
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: more free throws made and they had nine more free
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: throw attempts. That you know, a little bit of a
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: disparity there, But Chicago was the better team in the paint.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: They dominated the rebound battle, like I said, so that
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: has we concerned a little bit. That is one of
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: my concerns with Connecticut too, is that they got out
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: rebounded by Washington. We know Washington and Chicago, we were
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: both the two better teams here in these two games. Now,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: the other thing that makes me not like Portland is
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: they actually won the three point battle in that game.
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: They were actually plus twelve from three point range to
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: hit forty percent of their threes. So I think there's
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: gonna be three point regression from Portland in this game.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: So I don't like that. And Chicago could have some
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: shooting regression in general though, because they did shoot fifty
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: two percent from the field, so there is a little
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: bit of room for regression there. But I don't like
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: this well enough. I mean, if you're plus twelve from
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: three point range and you still lose by twenty three,
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: that is not a good sign. I really don't want
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: to back you in the next game. I'm still gonna
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: lean to Portland here, and the money does seem to
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: agree with it, but I can't do it. I mean,
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: I don't like it. I think this is the weakest
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: of the three, even though I do have somewhat stronger
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: opinion than I usually do on all three games. Here
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: minus four and a half is the price here on Chicago,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: so they're actually laying a little bit more than they
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: were in the last game. So it looks like the
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: zig zag does kind of make sense. You're getting it
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: like an extra point of value. With Portland, they're based
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: on what the line was in the previous game. Sixty
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: four percent of the tickets are on Chicago, sixty eight
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Portland. So the money agrees
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: with me pretty strong. And it looks like a pros
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: versus Joe's market scenario there with the money back in Portland.
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: And that means my last play of the day is
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: in this last game, we need to get back on
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: track with the WNBA. This play is the Atlanta money
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: line at minus one fourteen. Now, if you want to
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: lay one or one and a half, I think you
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: could do that too. Like obviously it's highly likely that
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: if they cover that number, they're gonna If they win,
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: they're probably gonna cover as well, you know what I mean,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: So you can get the price down a little bit.
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: But this money line price was so close to minus
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: one ten, I was just like, let's just play them
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: to win the game and then if they happen to
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: win by one, we'll still win. Instead of pushing the bet.
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: I saw my minus one at minus one ten and
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: minus one oh five was like minus one oh five.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: So if you do want to do it that way,
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: you could do that too. But you know, it's baseball season,
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: so it almost feels like lit'sten. You know, we're we're
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: in money line mode here. Atlanta is getting the money,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: by the way, even though they're public, eighty percent of tickets,
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: ninety five percent of the cash on Atlanta. But I'm
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: gonna make my case for Atlanta here in a second. Again, Yeah,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 2: you can lay minus one one and a half. It
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: might be a pick them at some places out there too,
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: but any of those I think is fine. Like I
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: think if they cover their likely if they win, they're
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: likely gonna cover. Now this is a zigzag spot as well,
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: so Golden State just beat Atlanta at home by eleven,
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: And I told you I liked Golden State in that
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: game because Golden State got annihilated by Vegas in the
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: last game. They were staying in the Pacific times on
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: and Atlanta was having to travel out to the Pacific
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: time zone. And Atlanta was also coming off a pretty
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: big well not actually not a big game against Toronto nevermind,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: but I thought Atlanta traveling out west was gonna be
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for them because these East Coast teams
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: going out west that first game a lot of times
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: messes with their biological clock. But now I think now
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: that they're out there and they're literally staying in the
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: same city here in San Francisco or whatever for this game,
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be adjusted to the time zone now, so
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a way better spot for Atlanta here
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: to bounce back. So I like that Golden State does
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: have a big ESPN game up next against New York,
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: and New York is one of the better teams in
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: the league too, so even though they shouldn't overlook Atlanta,
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: they just beat Atlanta, man, and that New York game
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a big TV game. So it is
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: possible Golden State does maybe have one eye looking ahead there,
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: and I think Atlanta's gonna be the team that has
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: more focus here. I know they just lost a four
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: game win streak, but I'm not too concerned about that
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: being a hangover here because I think they're gonna bounce
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: back here. Man, they're laying basically the same price they
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: were in the first game. They're still they were about
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: one and a half in this first game, so there's
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: no real line value here. But I think the spot
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: is good and the zigzag has not caused the line
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: to give us less value here, you know what I mean,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: Like we're not having to lay extra points with Atlanta here,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: and if we look at this game, yeah, I think
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is gonna bounce back here. Because Atlanta only plays
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Seattle next, they're not gonna be focused on that on
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: that game Tomorrow. They're actually playing a rare back to
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: back and third game in four days that's very rare
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: in the WNBA, So they're gonna have to do that tomorrow.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: Tomorrow's spot might be a bad spot for them, but
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: Seattle is gonna be coming off a big upset that
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: they pulled yesterday. Too, so preview of tomorrow, I'm probably
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: not gonna have a play in that game. Both teams
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: probably in a bad spot. But assuming that Atlanta does
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: what we expect them to do here. But yeah, Atlanta,
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: you know they're staying in the same city here for
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: this for this game. Both teams are, you know, on
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: the same rest here in the same city. Now, Atlanta's
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: adjusted to the Pacific times and they don't have a
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: look at it spot here. They're gonna try to beat
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: the team that just beat them. And Golden State is
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 2: still a pretty decent team and they are good at
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 2: home eight and three, although Atlanta's still good on the
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: road at six and three. And the reason why I
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: really start to like this is if we look at
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: the previous game, there were some pretty big outliers here.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: In this game, Golden State was winning most of the game.
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: Atlanta had a terrible second quarter nine points in the
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: second quarter. That's not gonna happen again. And they tried
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: to make a comeback in the fourth quarter. They had
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: a great fourth quarter, but it wasn't enough because they
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: had a bad game. But look at what happened in
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: this game, dude, Golden State shot forty five percent from
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: the field to Atlanta's thirty nine percent, So I think
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be some regression there in the field goal percentage.
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: Atlanta actually took more field goals in the game, so
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: Atlanta actually won the turnover battle, and I know that's
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 2: not a good sign if you win the turnover battle
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: and you still lose the game. But I'm gonna talk
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 2: about the outliers that we have in a minute here,
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: mostly the three pointers. Though Atlanta did win the rebounding battle,
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: so you see team winning the rebound battle, usually that
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 2: indicates that team is gonna be close to winning the game.
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: So I think Atlanta's the better team in the paint.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: And yes, Atlanta did. They have Angel Reese, so Atlanta used.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: Atlanta did go to the line ten more times, and
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: usually I'm gonna say, well, I don't like that, because
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: if you lose the game and you have that much
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: of a free throw disparity, you know that's bad. But
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: the thing was the disparity was really the percentage. Atlanta
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: only shot fifty five percent from the free throw line.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: They're not gonna do that again. Even if Angel Reese
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: is terrible at shooting fifty five percent is ridiculous. You're
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: not gonna shoot fifty five percent agin from the free
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 2: throw line. So if Atlanta's gonna go to the line
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: more again, which there are some reasons why they did that,
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: because they're a better team at drawing fouls, they should
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: shoot better than that. So I think there's gonna be
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: a regression there. But the huge regression point here is
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 2: clearly the three pointers. Golden State was plus thirty three
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: from three point range in that game and they only
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: won by eleven, So I think that's a really bad
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: sign for Golden State. They hit eleven more three pointers
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: in the game. They hit almost half of their threes
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: forty seven percent fifteen threes to Atlanta's four. You are
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: not gonna see anywhere close to that much of a
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: disparity again there, even if Atlanta does like to play
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 2: on the inside and they don't take that many threes
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: Golden State. I mean, there's a lot of variants with
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: the three point percentage there. They're not gonna hit forty
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: seven percent again, and Atlanta is probably not gonna shoot
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: twenty two percent from three again either, So that is
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: a massive disparity there, huge outlier there. I think that's
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: gonna regress back to some sort of mean we're gonna
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: zig zag. We're gonna take Atlanta. That is my one
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 2: play there. And you're getting the better team here too,
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: so that I do like that as well, when you're
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: getting the better team and then they might be getting
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: overlooked a little bit. So we'll take Atlanta there to
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: win in a good spot to do it, and then
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: we have World Cup. But I'm not gonna play any
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: of these games today, but we do have some interesting
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: games in the afternoon. We have two games in the
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: after noon, Norway and France is gonna be I think
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: one of the best matchups of the day. These are
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: all in Fox, Fox Sports One, Telemundo Universa, and Fox
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 2: Won you'll find the games. This is in Gillette in Foxboro.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe Norway has a little bit of an advantage there
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: because they've played in the stadium once already, France has not.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: H Both teams are coming in from a different location though,
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: France I think is coming in from uh I want
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 2: to say Philadelphia, and Norway's coming in from East Rutherford,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: New Jersey. But obviously they're staying in the northeast. Not
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: a big deal. Norway though they're used to this stadium
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 2: at the very least. I think both teams are gonna
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: be motivated here though. These two teams have been the
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: boat the best two teams in this group, where I
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 2: wasn't sure because Senegal is pretty good. But these two
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: teams both have all the points in this group, France
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: and Norway. They both have two wins and nobody else
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 2: has any points in the group. France is the better team.
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: France has been my pick to win this whole thing.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: This won't be an easy matchup for them, though. Both
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 2: teams are probably gonna try to win. But here's the well,
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: maybe not though, because here's the thing. Both teams are
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: already guaranteed to advance, right like they're both one and two.
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: It's just a matter of which team's gonna be number one,
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: which team's gonna be number two, you know what I mean?
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: So does that mean that these teams are okay with
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 2: a draw here? It might because these teams might just say, hey,
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: let's have a gentlemanly match here. We're both gonna advance
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: to the knockout. We don't really care if we're number
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 2: one or number two here. So I think the draw
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: is a little bit more likely in this match than
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: in some other matches, though it's still gonna be unlikely,
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: and that it's like a plus two probably a plus
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: two hundred something line on the draw here. But it
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 2: is possible these teams play to a draw here because
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: they're both gonna advance. They both already lock that up.
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe these teams still do want to play well against
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 2: each other, though, because you know that these teams might
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 2: still want to test themselves, be competitive. They still might
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: want to get number one in the group just to
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: do it a group. I France is the better team
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 2: at minus one fifty five. I don't know, man, I
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 2: don't think I would want to play it that way though.
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: I think maybe an over might be a way to
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: look here. The total is high though, at three and
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: a half, But it is high for a reason. You
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: got two really good offenses here, I mean Norway with
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: Holland he's one of the best scorers in all of soccer,
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 2: like in the entire world. He's really good. In France
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: has umbape and these teams are also pretty deep. Like offensively,
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: these seems both can score a lot, so, especially if
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 2: it's more of kind of a gentlemanly game and it
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: turns into a little bit more of a scrimmage. I
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: think you will see some goals here, so maybe an
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 2: over could be worth a look there. I would not
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: want to try to figure out the side though. France
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: is the somewhat better team though, and I think France,
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe the best team in the entire nation.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 2: But we'll see. Senegal is playing Iraq. Senegal is a
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 2: huge favorite at minus four to twenty five. This is
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: in Toronto, Senegal. These teams are both traveling. Senegal is
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: coming in from They just played against Norway. I think
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 2: Norway beat them. Senegal was competitive though, dude, Senegal was
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: competitive against Norway and France. It's just that those are
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: two good teams. So Senegal they need a win here, dude,
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 2: they need to get three points, Like if they're gonna
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 2: have any shot, they're they're in trouble of possibly not
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: advancing here. But if they win, they're gonna be above Scotland.
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: So Scotland really needs Senegal to not win here, I'm
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: pretty sure, but that is not gonna happen. Senegal is
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 2: gonna win, I'm pretty sure, and they're gonna get their
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: three points and they're gonna have a positive goal differential
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: and that'll put them above Scotland. So Scotland they might
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: be out. Dude, Scotland needed Ecuador to draw yesterday and
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: they didn't like I was rooting for the draw because
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: I still would have won with Ecuador. Ecuador had to
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 2: get that late goal or whatever, that other goal and win,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: you know. Uh So, Unfortunately, I think Scotland is looking
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: more and more likely that they're going to be eliminated.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 2: Senegal is going to win. Iraq is bad. This game
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: is in Toronto, Iraq is coming up from losing to
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 2: France they played in Philadelphia, and Senegal's coming up from
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: whatever that was, New York, the New York area. Yeah,
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: I think Senegal wins. I don't have a whole lot
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 2: else to say about that. The totals high. I think
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: this is the type of game where maybe it's a
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 2: Senegal over their team total type of situation, because you know,
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 2: they're gonna need to score at least some goals here
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 2: because the goal differential might wind up mattering with all
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: the ties that might happen for the third place teams.
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 2: So Senegal has some reason to try to score goals. Here,
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: so they might very well do that. This next group here,
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: Cape Verday in Saudi Arabia. This is ridiculous on Fox
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: Sports one. This game is in Houston. I think one
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: of these teams might be coming up from playing in Mexico.
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 2: Is that right? Maybe that's not right. Saudi Arabia is
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 2: coming off getting blown out by h Espana of Spain.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: We had a win in that game with the Spain
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: team total over, although yes we got helped by an
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 2: own goal there. But whatever this game was in? Where
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 2: was this game? Why doesn't it tell me? Come on, man,
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 2: I just want to know where the game was. Maybe
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 2: I have to go to the recap. Yeah, this game
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: was in Atlanta, Georgia. That's right. I forgot about that.
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 2: So Saudi Arabia is going to Houston from Atlanta, and
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 2: I think Cape Veraday where were they at? They might
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: have been in Mexico, dude, No, they were in Miami.
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know why I'm thinking that, but Cape Verdey
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: is coming off of two ridiculous draws. Like this Cape
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 2: verde team is not actually that good, dude, and they're
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: coming off of a draw of draws as huge underdogs
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 2: against Spain and Uruguay. I do. I don't like this
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 2: for cape verdey man, even though they're gonna try to
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 2: get third place here, like they do have as to
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 2: win and if cape Verday wins, they're gonna advance because
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: if they win here, they're gonna have five points, so
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: they're gonna advance and it's gonna fuck Scotland even more,
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 2: you know. So, yeah, cape Verde they're the better team
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 2: in this match up at plus one sixty five. But
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 2: to me, I think they've looked too good. Dude, they're
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 2: kind of like the hype team right now because they've
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 2: pulled off these draws. But I talked about how Spain
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: dominated them in that game, you know what I mean,
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 2: Like that was a bullshit draw. It was very misleading.
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 2: Uruguay did kind of dominate their game two against Cape Verde.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: If you look at what happened in this match, Uruguay
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: expected goals two point three to two to point eight nine.
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: They won the possession battle easily. They just didn't get
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of shots on goal. I mean, Uruguay not
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: the greatest offensive team here, but yeah, I think it
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 2: was kind of misleading. So Cape Verdet could be in
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot. Dude, they've overperformed in the World Cup
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: here with these two draws as a big underdog. So
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: I I kind of like Saudi Arabia here you're getting
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: like almost the same price on the money line, but
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, yeah, I don't know what you
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 2: would want to do here, man, Like you're gonna have
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: to pay a price. That's my issue with it. Like,
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: if you want to go Saudi Arabia plus the half
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 2: goal or if you want to go Saudi Arabia win draw,
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: you're looking at like a minus two hundred price or
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 2: maybe minus one eighty price or something like that. So
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 2: even though I like Saudi Arabia kind of year, you
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: know what you could do? Though, I'm thinking about this.
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 2: What does the draw no bet look like? For Saudi
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 2: Arabia here? Let me see. I'm not gonna add this
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: as a player or anything. I don't think, but I
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 2: know this show is gonna go long again. Let me
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 2: see what the what does the draw no bet look like?
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 2: That's something I haven't really talked about too much, but
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: that basically means that a draw is gonna push rather
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 2: than give you a win. So that means the price
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 2: is gonna be somewhere in the middle of those two.
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 2: Let me look, people don't usually go to that market,
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: but let me look, draw no bet. Yeah, that's the
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: best way to play this. Draw no bet, Saudi Arabia
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 2: minus one ten. That would be what I would do
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 2: in this game. So that means if they win, you're
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 2: gonna win your bet, but it's it's less risky because
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: if they draw, you're just gonna get your money back.
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 2: So I think that's what I would do. I would
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 2: take Saudi Arabia, draw no bet. That's the way I
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 2: would play that game. And you get it right at
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: that minus one ten, So it's right in that price
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 2: wheelhouse that I like. So I almost forgot about that market.
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think, yeah, it's just that Cape Verde
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 2: has massively overperformed, dude, that's the thing, So that might
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: be the way to play that. I'm not gonna put
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: that on my card, but I think that's what I
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 2: would do in that one. Next game is Uruguay and Spain,
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 2: and this game is in Mexico for some reason, so
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: both teams are having to travel from the States to Mexico,
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 2: Spain from Atlanta, Uruguay from Florida. You know this game,
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: Spain is not favored by that much, dude. They're at
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: minus one forty five, and that kind of tells you
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 2: maybe Spain doesn't have the most motivation here. And if
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 2: you look well Spain, you know they actually still haven't
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: clinched number one in their group. They actually have not
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 2: even clinched advancing actually, so Spain does still need to
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: at least get one point here to make to make
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 2: sure that they advanced, because Cape Verdey could win today
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 2: and that would give them five points, and Uruguay could
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: beat Spain theoretically and get five points. So if those
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: two things happen, Spain is gonna be a third place team.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 2: They'll still advance though, probably because their goal differential. Actually
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 2: they'll have four points, so they'll still advance. But Spain
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 2: doesn't want that. I don't think. I don't think they
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 2: want to fall into third place. They want to make
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 2: sure the advance. So I think Spain does at least
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: have some motivation here, although Uruguay certainly is the more
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 2: motivated team here because they could definitely get a eliminated here.
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: If they don't pick up a point here, they're done,
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: like They're not going to advance with two points. You
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, is a team that has a decent,
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: you know, soccer history, they don't want that to happen,
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: like they should be advancing in this tournament here. So
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 2: Ugy needs to try to do something here, so they're
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 2: gonna be the more motivated team here. That's probably the
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: way I would look here. You know, Spain is definitely
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: the better team, but the motivation I think does go
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 2: to Uruguay a little bit here. Uruguay whatever, Spain only
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 2: minus one forty five, it looks way too easy to'll
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 2: play Spain here, although again it's gonna be one of
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: those ones where the professional betters are gonna tell you, well,
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 2: the line is is lower because everybody knows Uruguay is
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 2: in a must win spot, you know what I mean,
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 2: or at least a must draw and if if they draw,
• 2:03:52
  Speaker 2: they might still get eliminated. So it's kind of a
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: must win for Uruguay here, and the oddsmakers are telling
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 2: you you're paying for that, so they're gonna tell you
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: there's value on Spain here. But you know what I say,
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 2: and it worked out for us yesterday. Although one of
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 2: those teams was not in a must win Turkey. It
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 2: was just a kind of scrimmage esque type of game
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: that I thought Turkey was just gonna be trying to
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: avoid embarrassment, and they did. But this game, yeah, I
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: would still lean to Uruguay here. I like the motivational
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 2: edge when you have an underdog that you know is
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 2: going to be motivated. Like I agree with what the
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: professional betters are saying, but I think in a must
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 2: win the teams that I want to avoid are the
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 2: teams that are favored, you know what I mean, because
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 2: the pressure's really on them. The team it's the underdog.
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: People don't expect them to win, so they could still
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: get overlooked, and you're getting an underdog price on the
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 2: more motivated team. So I would look at Uruguay here
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 2: a plus to have goal or win, slash draw, whatever
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: gives you the best number on that. You're probably looking
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 2: at like plus one twenty five or something like that. There,
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 2: That's what I would do in that one. Then we
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 2: have the late games in the Pacific coast here see
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: has Egypt and Iran, and I don't know if you
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 2: saw that Seattle is trolling these countries by making this
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: a Pride event. I don't know if you saw that,
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 2: but of course Egypt and Iran heavily Muslim nations. They're
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 2: in opposition to Pride here. So I'm thinking this is
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 2: hilarious from both perspectives because the right wingers don't like Iran,
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 2: they don't like the Muslims, but they also don't like
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: Pride Nights. So I'm like, well, which one are you
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 2: gonna are you gonna side with? Here? You know what
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: I mean? Like this exposes the hypocrisy on both sides
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 2: in an awesome way. And then on the left, you know,
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 2: the left are all about, oh we gotta you know,
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 2: support you know, these other countries, these other religions, whatever,
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: and but also support Pride Night. So I'm like, well,
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: which one are you gonna choose here? You know what
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 2: I mean. It's just so hilarious. It's it's just I
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, it's like idiocracy. I don't know what
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 2: to say, Like, obviously I don't, I don't. I don't
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: think it's a good thing. I think this whole Pride thing,
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just stupid. It's just trying to force
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 2: it down everybody's throats. But in this particular case, it
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 2: is a troll and it is kind of hilarious, so
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: it is ridiculous. But focusing on this game, Egypt is
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 2: the better of these two teams, although not by much.
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 2: They're plus one point fifty. I believe Egypt is coming
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 2: in from I want to say, they were in Vancouver,
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 2: and Iran is coming in from California. So this is
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 2: actually a bad spot for Iran though in a way
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 2: because Iran is remember I told you Iran's not allowed
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 2: in the country and their fans are not allowed in
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 2: other country, I don't think. So, Yeah, the US is
• 2:06:39
  Speaker 2: screwing over Iran just because of the war stuff that's
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 2: going on, which is bullshit, and they're not doing that
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 2: to Egypt, I don't think, because the US already controls
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 2: Egypt's you know, government, So I don't think I'm allowed
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 2: to say any of this, but that is the case.
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: Iran is having to travel all the way up to
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 2: Seattle here from Mexico because Iran is staying in Mexico, remember,
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 2: so that is kind of bad for them. Egypt, I think,
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: is coming in from Vancouver, so I think it is
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 2: a better spot for Egypt here. And if we look
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 2: at the standings here. Let me look, where are we
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 2: looking here? Where's this group? Which group is this? This
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 2: is a group? G Egypt is winning the group right now.
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 2: This is unbelievable. Like Belgium was the heavy favorite to
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 2: win this group. Nobody else in this group is even
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 2: that good. And Egypt is winning the group right now,
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: really really insane stuff here. You know, they have four points,
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 2: so they're probably gonna still advance here, but they might
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 2: still be motivated here, you know, just to avoid falling
• 2:07:50
  Speaker 2: into third place and to try to win the group.
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but Iran has more to play for
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 2: it though, because Iran is playing to avoid elimination here,
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 2: Like Iran is gonna need to pick up at least
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 2: a point here to avoid elimination here, and maybe more
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 2: than that, they're gonna need to win probably, so I
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 2: think Iran's gonna be motivated here, and Belgium is right
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 2: on their ass. Belgium is at two points, and I
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 2: think there's no way that Belgium loses to New Zealand. Belgium,
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 2: I know they've looked like ass in this World Cup
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 2: so far. New Zealand is awful. I think they're the
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: worst team in this group. So I'm already starting to
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 2: talk about the last game of the day Belgium. But
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 2: Belgium is going to get five points. They're gonna get
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 2: up to five here. I would be shocked if Belgium
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 2: didn't get the three points today, So these teams do
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 2: have to worry about that about Belgium coming up on
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 2: their ass. So actually it's it's theoretically possible that Egypt
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 2: is eliminated, although I don't think they will because I
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 2: think if Egypt does fall to third place here, they
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: have enough points that they're still gonna advance, I'm pretty sure.
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 2: But they don't really want to be in that scenario,
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 2: so they're still gonna be motivated here. But you know,
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe a slight lean towards Iran for
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 2: me here, but I really don't like the travel spot
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 2: for Iran, so I don't like that Iran is probably
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: gonna be you know again, it's one of those spots
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: where it would be Iran draw no bet would be
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 2: the way that you would look. I think you'd get
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 2: the price probably around the minus one ten or minus
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 2: one twenty on Iran there and then Belgium against New
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 2: Zealand Belgium. I think they're staying in Vancouver, if I'm
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 2: not mistaken here, Oh no, I think New Zealand actually has.
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 2: I think New Zealand is staying in Belgium. New Zealand
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 2: just lost to I don't know, Egypt. New Zealand had
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: a draw with Iran. But New Zealand has not faced
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: anybody nearly as good as belgium in this World Cup
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 2: so far. New Zealand's gonna be up against it here.
• 2:09:48
  Speaker 2: I know Belgium has looked like absolute ass with two
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: draws so far against Egypt and Iran, so both as favorites.
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 2: Belgium is gonna bounce back and have a better game here. Man,
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: you would have to imagine. I mean, they need to
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 2: avoid elimination. They're gonna need to score the totals three
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 2: and a half, which it is a lot of times
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 2: in these lop sided matchups because the better team usually
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 2: tends to score more goals in those matchups. So you
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 2: know what I'm looking at here. I think Belgium over
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: their team total is the right approach here. Belgium, I
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 2: think is traveling in from I want to say they're
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: coming in from California though, but they are staying on
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 2: the Pacific coast, so travel doesn't really help them here.
• 2:10:28
  Speaker 2: I do worry a little bit though that Belgium just
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 2: hasn't looked good though, Like it's not one of those
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 2: situations where where those results were that misleading, you know
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 2: what I mean. Like Belgium's offenses really look bad in
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 2: those first two games. But because they look bad and
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: this is an easy, easy matchup for them, and they
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 2: need to win this and they probably want to pad
• 2:10:49
  Speaker 2: their goal differential here as well. Belgium over team total,
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 2: is that makes sense here? I think you're gonna need
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 2: in these team totals that I liked here. With you know, Senegal,
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 2: I kind of liked, but I think this one is
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 2: the best one. It would be over two and a half.
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 2: I think with Belgium here, I think that's what I
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 2: would do in that game. I kind of liked that one,
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 2: to be honest, Like, I think out of all the
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 2: games today that I like the best. Saudi Arabia draw
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 2: no bet I like be cause I think Cape Verde
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 2: is just way over hyped. But also Belgium has just
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 2: looked too bad. They're not that bad, so I think
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 2: Belgium team total over also makes sense here, but I'm
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 2: gonna avoid them. I just don't feel strongly enough about those.
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 2: There are some issues that I have with those, so
• 2:11:33
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna stay off of it. Long show today, but
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 2: that's how I look at these. Gerald, what's up. That's
• 2:11:39
  Speaker 2: all right, Thanks for hanging out. Man. A group leaders parlay,
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 2: I would not be parlaying man. You're yeah, you're gonna
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 2: need Belgium to win and for Egypt to not win.
• 2:11:55
  Speaker 2: It's definitely possible. I picked Belgium to win that group
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 2: as well in my PN entry where you you have
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 2: to pick all the teams in order, and then you
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 2: also pick which of the eight third place teams advance.
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 2: So I had Belgium winning that group obviously, and I
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 2: think I had Egypt in second, which which still could happen,
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 2: so we'll see. I don't remember if I had Iron
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 2: advancing or not, but whatever, seven of twelve, I'm not sure.
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know what you're talking about. So you have
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 2: a twelve leg parlay. I hope that. I hope you
• 2:12:31
  Speaker 2: didn't actually bet that, unless it was some sort of
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 2: like promotion or something where it's just like, you know,
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know, like you're just having fun with some
• 2:12:40
  Speaker 2: gambling there. But anyway, that's gonna do it. I gotta
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 2: get out of here. I gotta eat lunch too. I
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 2: get my videos up. We have three plays today Baseball,
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 2: Astros and Tigers over the eight and a half. We
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 2: have under in the first half of A's and Angels
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 2: under four and a half. I kind of liked that
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 2: one with that pitching matchup. And then WNBA were playing
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 2: on the Dream, the Atlanta Dream. We could dream that
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 2: we can get that one right. Oh and I dude,
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 2: how did I not put my banner up? I think
• 2:13:09
  Speaker 2: I had it up and I took it down. I apologize.
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it though. The banner's back up again.
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Everybody learned it tode on Twitter, learn
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 2: it tone on Instagram like a Subscribe to the channel
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 2: here and you'll get notified when I go live. We
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 2: got to get to five hundred, man, come on, let's
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 2: get more people watching this. We're still on a really
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 2: nice run, but still had a good year or two,
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 2: so come on, man. Our World Cup's been going well,
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 2: though I know I haven't given out any World Cup
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: places today what else is I gonna say? Cover or
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 2: not cover? Well, yes, covered in Yolk on YouTube my
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 2: yuke channel, you can check that out. Listen to the
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 2: show on audio. That helps me out as well. So
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 2: the numbers are going up slightly on audio, so check
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 2: that out. Patreon dot com, slash learn a toe if
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 2: you want to support me there. I know I have
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 2: to get back to the yuke stuff. I've been sick
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 2: and I just I don't know. My voice just hasn't
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 2: been right, so I don't know what I'm gonna do
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 2: about that. I'm getting better those I think I'm gonna
• 2:14:04
  Speaker 2: be probably doing some soon and then and I just
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 2: still want to do some yuke hangout streams. I keep
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 2: talking about that, but there are a lot of things
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 2: I have on my mind that I haven't gotten gotten to
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 2: doing yet. And then what else? Loser cast every Tuesday night,
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 2: although we were on Monday this week. You can go
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 2: find that episode check it out. The New York Giants
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 2: g Spot podcast will return at some point and I
• 2:14:28
  Speaker 2: will be on Nephelin Desk Squad this afternoon, so I
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 2: gotta get some lunch done and then I think two pm.
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's live though if they're just
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 2: recording it. But NDS is having me back on today.
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 2: So for those of you that like those guys, which
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 2: I do as well, I always kind of throw a
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 2: wrench into what they usually do and it gets it
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 2: becomes more of like a Tower Gang esque show because
• 2:14:49
  Speaker 2: I can't really do anything else so except for this,
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 2: So go check that out too. Yeah, you're definitely a degenerate,
• 2:14:56
  Speaker 2: you know, dude. I recommend against parlayce like it's a
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 2: losing bet long term. So everything for me is straight bets.
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Peace, but don't
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 2: you go quiet.
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show.
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 2:15:15
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me, now, hold on.
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 3: Hold on nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on. Let
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 3: me foll.
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 1: That long bite's hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now