Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Markets Wrap: Trouble Ahead For The AI Money Machine?
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
- 0:18Speaker 2: Welcome to the merriland Talks Money Market Wrap, where we
- 0:21Speaker 2: talk about the biggest moves and markets this week and
- 0:23Speaker 2: what's been driving them. I'm Join Stewick, senior reporter and
- 0:26Speaker 2: author of the Money Distilled newsletter, and then joining me
- 0:29Speaker 2: in the studio today is Bloomberg's Private Companies Managing Editor
- 0:32Speaker 2: Neil Callanan. Neil covers hedge funds, asset management, and real
- 0:36Speaker 2: estate in EMIA. So in today's show, I basically wanted
- 0:40Speaker 2: to talk about the AI industry. Wanted to give us
- 0:44Speaker 2: structure out of what it's actually about, lay it out
- 0:46Speaker 2: so that you can understand it better. They kind of
- 0:51Speaker 2: who's producing the chips and who's producing the models, and
- 0:54Speaker 2: then wanted to look at how that's funded and why.
- 0:58Speaker 2: There are some concerns about perhaps the circularity of some
- 1:03Speaker 2: of the deals in the industry, and Neil has written
- 1:05Speaker 2: a lot about that. Thanks very much for being with
- 1:08Speaker 2: us today, Neil. I was great to have you on
- 1:11Speaker 2: the show, having not at all so but recording this
- 1:17Speaker 2: on Wednesday. And probably the biggest story so far this
- 1:22Speaker 2: week has been the route in the South Korean Cosby
- 1:26Speaker 2: Index and Basically this is driven by the fact that
- 1:30Speaker 2: Cosby is half of it is comprised of two stocks
- 1:35Speaker 2: that are related to the AI boom, and that's skh
- 1:38Speaker 2: Nix and Samsung. And also there is an element of
- 1:44Speaker 2: retail investors getting in over their heads because they've been
- 1:47Speaker 2: able to buy all these leveraged ETFs and so the
- 1:50Speaker 2: costby went up a lot and then down a lot.
- 1:52Speaker 2: I mean, one of the stats that really jumped out
- 1:54Speaker 2: at me is that it's actually still up thirty five
- 1:57Speaker 2: percent on the year, but in the last month it's
- 2:00Speaker 2: fallen slightly formal set So yeah, okay, that's a proper
- 2:04Speaker 2: roll off course at the moment. But does this tale
- 2:08Speaker 2: is boy, does this suggest is about the overarching AI
- 2:14Speaker 2: story because it's not just about Korean leverage. There's other
- 2:17Speaker 2: stuff going on too, Isn't that absolutely?
- 2:20Speaker 1: And Korea in a way is a special case because
- 2:22Speaker 1: Korea has almost gamified the finance industry and the stock market.
- 2:27Speaker 1: And you mentioned the lever gts, but they've been big
- 2:30Speaker 1: on crypto and heather and things like that, stable coins
- 2:33Speaker 1: for a long time and and you know those a
- 2:37Speaker 1: lot of those investors in retail have grown up very
- 2:40Speaker 1: accepting of those levels of risk and in many cases
- 2:43Speaker 1: it has paid off. So, as you said, the COSPY
- 2:45Speaker 1: is still up this year despite the route in recent weeks.
- 2:48Speaker 1: But while it is driving a lot of the change
- 2:50Speaker 1: at the moment is the fear that China is catching up.
- 2:53Speaker 1: And China's emergence in AI, which was always going to
- 2:58Speaker 1: happen but perhaps faster than people, is really concentrating minds
- 3:02Speaker 1: at the moment. And we have seen in the past
- 3:03Speaker 1: when Deep Sea came out of nowhere and released its
- 3:06Speaker 1: models at the market disruption that that cause. And now
- 3:09Speaker 1: we're going to a kind of second bout of that
- 3:11Speaker 1: where in the space of just over a week you've
- 3:14Speaker 1: seen massive progress in terms of memory chips, in terms
- 3:17Speaker 1: of language models, and so China is definitely emerging. And
- 3:21Speaker 1: one of the things around all is spending that we're
- 3:23Speaker 1: seeing in AI is the assumption is that people are
- 3:25Speaker 1: willing to pay for it and won't pay a lot
- 3:28Speaker 1: for it going forward. And then suddenly if you have
- 3:30Speaker 1: these cheaper models coming out of China and people start
- 3:33Speaker 1: switching to that, then what happens with the names we're
- 3:35Speaker 1: all familiar like with like open AI and Anthropic and
- 3:41Speaker 1: so you know, there's definitely fears in the market about
- 3:45Speaker 1: that at the moment, and I think people are definitely
- 3:49Speaker 1: taking pots globally as a result of that. At the
- 3:52Speaker 1: same time, a lot of this money is going to
- 3:54Speaker 1: be spent. There is an investment case for it. It's
- 3:59Speaker 1: whether it's getting ahead of itself at the moment. In
- 4:01Speaker 1: certainly in terms of graduations, it did seem to be
- 4:03Speaker 1: getting steamy at one point this year.
- 4:05Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I thought we'd just kind of lay
- 4:08Speaker 2: out roughly the AI industry and the business mode because
- 4:12Speaker 2: I think a lot of the time, you know, we
- 4:14Speaker 2: sort about AI and it's quite an amorphous kind of blob,
- 4:18Speaker 2: and a lot of time we're thinking about chat GPT.
- 4:21Speaker 2: I mean, the video is in there somewhere and all
- 4:23Speaker 2: the rest of these things. But so always kind of
- 4:27Speaker 2: looking at it. And that's what I was talking to
- 4:29Speaker 2: you to AI about it and getting a sense of
- 4:32Speaker 2: what the kind of value chain it. So you've got
- 4:34Speaker 2: your you've got the machines that make them, So you've
- 4:38Speaker 2: got the companies that make the machines that make the chips,
- 4:40Speaker 2: and that's like your SML that makes the kind of
- 4:44Speaker 2: lift up lithography machines and then you get the chip
- 4:47Speaker 2: foundries themselves, and that's like the Taiwanese company t s MC.
- 4:53Speaker 2: You've got chip designers and that's the video. So they're
- 4:56Speaker 2: they're the ones that basically do the kind of value
- 4:58Speaker 2: add element, isn't it. It's like they are they're making
- 5:01Speaker 2: the brains for these things. And then all of these
- 5:05Speaker 2: chips go into big AI hotels, the kind of data centers,
- 5:09Speaker 2: and they're run by the same people that run what
- 5:11Speaker 2: we used to call Internet hotels, the kind of data servers,
- 5:14Speaker 2: like the Amazons and all the rest of this world.
- 5:17Speaker 2: And then you've got the people who actually make the
- 5:19Speaker 2: AI models and the AI models the brains of the
- 5:23Speaker 2: AI live on the data centers, and that's like your
- 5:27Speaker 2: open AI. And then they're selling them companies either big
- 5:31Speaker 2: enterprise providers who kind of like garnish their existing offerings
- 5:35Speaker 2: with AI, orange users like me and you, are smaller companies.
- 5:41Speaker 2: Is that about the size of it?
- 5:43Speaker 1: Is that?
- 5:43Speaker 2: Does that kind of sound about right in terms of
- 5:47Speaker 2: what the EI value chain is and who all the
- 5:49Speaker 2: companies are involved in this?
- 5:52Speaker 1: But like this is so massive now that encompasses everything
- 5:56Speaker 1: else as well. So they need energy and so we're
- 5:59Speaker 1: saying boom and energy, and people are talking about leading
- 6:02Speaker 1: up to three hundred gigawatts of additional energy power by
- 6:06Speaker 1: twenty thirty. That's enough to power two hundred and twenty
- 6:09Speaker 1: five million homes for a year just for data centers. Now,
- 6:13Speaker 1: those things have to be built as well. You have
- 6:15Speaker 1: to get people to build the data centers and build
- 6:17Speaker 1: the energy infrastructure, et cetera. So construction firms are taking
- 6:21Speaker 1: off as well. And so you know, in the US
- 6:23Speaker 1: in particular, it's driving a lot of the economic growth,
- 6:26Speaker 1: and any slowdown in this kind of spending will be
- 6:28Speaker 1: negative for growth, not necessarily turn recessionary anything, but it
- 6:32Speaker 1: would be negative for growth in the US. But this
- 6:36Speaker 1: goes back your point about in the end. It comes
- 6:38Speaker 1: back to the end users. Goes back to my point
- 6:40Speaker 1: about China in a way, which is that you know,
- 6:43Speaker 1: we need people at the end to be paying for
- 6:44Speaker 1: these services in order to justify these investments. And when
- 6:48Speaker 1: you look at the amount of money that are being
- 6:50Speaker 1: spent by some of the hyperscalers in particular, which are
- 6:53Speaker 1: these Internet hotels originally as you describe them, you know,
- 6:57Speaker 1: if you look at alphabet th recent filing, it's forward
- 7:01Speaker 1: spending commitments rows five hundred billion dollars essentially in three
- 7:06Speaker 1: months now. Revenue, the future revenue growth grew but not
- 7:11Speaker 1: by anything close to that, and that goes back to
- 7:14Speaker 1: the fears people have about this entire ecosystem that is
- 7:16Speaker 1: sucking up so much money and so much capital at
- 7:19Speaker 1: the moment that people are kind of going, well, well,
- 7:22Speaker 1: I don't know whether I want to have as much
- 7:24Speaker 1: exposure as I could have to this. And you're starting
- 7:27Speaker 1: to see that in the credit markets as well, where
- 7:29Speaker 1: people are becoming much more discriminating about the deals they
- 7:32Speaker 1: invest in and the price they're wanting to pay. And
- 7:34Speaker 1: they're also hedging a bit more so this week Core
- 7:37Speaker 1: Weaves CDs, which is the form of hedging against the
- 7:42Speaker 1: fault risk that's risen't almost a record. The core Weave
- 7:45Speaker 1: is one of these companies that is like a wee
- 7:48Speaker 1: work of the GPU world, which is the chips, and
- 7:51Speaker 1: they basically rent out other people what they're doing. And
- 7:55Speaker 1: you know, people have become much more cynical in the
- 7:58Speaker 1: last few weeks about deals, partly because they know so
- 8:01Speaker 1: much of this stuff is coming to the credit markets
- 8:03Speaker 1: that they don't have to buy everything and The question
- 8:06Speaker 1: is whether people in the AI industry as a wider
- 8:11Speaker 1: thing have become too complaisent about the idea that the
- 8:14Speaker 1: credit markets will be there and be supportive of them,
- 8:17Speaker 1: and that's not necessarily always going to be the case.
- 8:19Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think that this is it is
- 8:21Speaker 2: fascinating from that point of view, and that there really
- 8:24Speaker 2: has been a wug bond issue and hasn't. And I
- 8:28Speaker 2: mean we're talking about by some measures now the hyperscalers
- 8:33Speaker 2: are the biggest issues of corporate investment grade debt, and
- 8:37Speaker 2: you're used to being the banks and the other point
- 8:40Speaker 2: but hyperscalers is that before all this they were they
- 8:44Speaker 2: were basically running on their own cash generation. They were
- 8:48Speaker 2: deemed as being essentially impregnable balance sheets. And while it's
- 8:53Speaker 2: not negative that they've started, you know, recent or not started,
- 8:56Speaker 2: they've now got a lot of debt. And for example,
- 8:59Speaker 2: our for bet It's latest quarter was its first negative
- 9:02Speaker 2: free cash flow quarter ever since it lest date. It's
- 9:07Speaker 2: just a sort of sign of how much is out
- 9:10Speaker 2: there and how these these businesses are kind of fundamentally
- 9:14Speaker 2: being changed by this. And then you throw in China
- 9:18Speaker 2: maybe turning around and doing it all much much cheaper,
- 9:21Speaker 2: and suddenly you're kind of oh, your onions are going
- 9:23Speaker 2: to be crushed, or so the Indians that we're hoping
- 9:27Speaker 2: that you get might get crushed by this. And the
- 9:30Speaker 2: one thing I thought was really interesting, going back to
- 9:32Speaker 2: the debt point, as you involved in putting together this
- 9:36Speaker 2: very complicated and now famous in a sort of local
- 9:41Speaker 2: way chart about how this is all being financed. And
- 9:46Speaker 2: one of the big things that's I think slightly worrying
- 9:49Speaker 2: people as well is that a lot of the money
- 9:52Speaker 2: seems to be coming from the people who raise the
- 9:56Speaker 2: money in the first place, so like almost like a
- 10:00Speaker 2: form of vendor financing. You've got companies that kind of
- 10:04Speaker 2: make the chips, paying the people who buy the chips
- 10:07Speaker 2: or who are going to rent the data centers that
- 10:09Speaker 2: use the chips. Can you talk to us a bit
- 10:11Speaker 2: more about about that and how that's kind of panning out.
- 10:16Speaker 1: Yeah, what happened late last year was I was sitting
- 10:20Speaker 1: there reading story after story about these deals where companies
- 10:24Speaker 1: were doing deals with other companies in the universe, and
- 10:27Speaker 1: video has always been at the center of this, but
- 10:30Speaker 1: the likes of Google, Ananthropic and open Ai were doing
- 10:32Speaker 1: all these as well. And I literally couldn't keep up,
- 10:35Speaker 1: and so we just had the idea and maybe we
- 10:38Speaker 1: need to do a visual here and kind of show
- 10:40Speaker 1: the levels of circular deals that are happening. And you know,
- 10:45Speaker 1: this became something of a bad word in the nineteen
- 10:48Speaker 1: nineties with fiber optic and when there was a big
- 10:50Speaker 1: rollout of that, lots of spending and there was vendor financing,
- 10:53Speaker 1: and there was capacity sharing and various other things, and
- 10:57Speaker 1: then a lot of those companies went bus when the
- 10:59Speaker 1: demand was in there at the end having invested in
- 11:01Speaker 1: all that money. And of course the irony, of course
- 11:03Speaker 1: is that long term the economy benefit and massively from
- 11:08Speaker 1: that level of spending. It's just the companies involved. But
- 11:11Speaker 1: noways so many of them ended up going bankrupt.
- 11:13Speaker 2: Well, that's that's the infrastructure story, isn't it. The always
- 11:17Speaker 2: are still hearing we still have trained a lot of
- 11:19Speaker 2: the companies about them went bused and seeing me dot
- 11:22Speaker 2: com and.
- 11:23Speaker 1: That happens with most new technologies. And again that goes
- 11:25Speaker 1: back to why investors are being somewhat skeptical at the
- 11:29Speaker 1: moment about that. But these circlear deals, they can create
- 11:31Speaker 1: misaligned incentives around things like are you making the decision
- 11:37Speaker 1: for the in the best interests of the company. Are
- 11:39Speaker 1: you making it in the best interest of the company
- 11:41Speaker 1: that invested in you and is one of your biggest customers, etcetera.
- 11:45Speaker 1: And does that mean you're not the voting resources to
- 11:48Speaker 1: something else when perhaps you should be. It also raises
- 11:51Speaker 1: the question of whether there might be misaligned values. So, yeah,
- 11:54Speaker 1: the deal has been done out let's just say seven
- 11:57Speaker 1: billion valuation, but if that is with somebody else might
- 12:01Speaker 1: have been a four billion. Yeah, you're also creating customers
- 12:05Speaker 1: for you who are beholding by those contracts. And then
- 12:09Speaker 1: that like essentially creates regulatory risk as well. But regulators
- 12:12Speaker 1: may come alongo, actually we don't like that, and we're
- 12:15Speaker 1: not sure whether that's the best deal for the consumer.
- 12:18Speaker 1: And so, you know, all these risks are immerging up
- 12:21Speaker 1: perhaps we didn't have before. But the biggest one, probably
- 12:24Speaker 1: of all, is that these circular deals can create a
- 12:27Speaker 1: false impression of demand. And you may think that all
- 12:31Speaker 1: these companies are generating massive revenues, but if it's all
- 12:33Speaker 1: just moving around and slashing around, then if something falls
- 12:36Speaker 1: out of bed, then there could be wider implications and
- 12:39Speaker 1: that could become systemic.
- 12:52Speaker 2: The other thing I thought was interested in this week
- 12:54Speaker 2: is that athough cost we's fallen out of bed the
- 12:58Speaker 2: nasdyke to cup a bump, but not a big one.
- 13:02Speaker 2: It so far seems to be restricted largely to the
- 13:06Speaker 2: AI and the tech sector. And actually plenty of other
- 13:10Speaker 2: stocks are doing fine. They equal weighted S and P
- 13:14Speaker 2: is doing fine as there's in that's the S and
- 13:16Speaker 2: P that's not wholly invested in the tech sector. And
- 13:20Speaker 2: also the FOOTS one hundred is almost back at a
- 13:23Speaker 2: record high, the kind of laggard of the global stock markets.
- 13:28Speaker 2: But is this issue of how much does this spread
- 13:32Speaker 2: or could it spread beyond the tech sector? So who
- 13:36Speaker 2: else is involved in lending to these companies and if
- 13:40Speaker 2: something did break down there sort of where are the
- 13:43Speaker 2: contagion sort of vectors.
- 13:49Speaker 1: The demand means that the AI industry has had to
- 13:52Speaker 1: go to pretty much every corner of the credit market
- 13:54Speaker 1: and hand out the ball and kind of say, give
- 13:56Speaker 1: us a few quid what we need going for. And
- 14:00Speaker 1: so you're seeing everything from direct lending, which is a
- 14:04Speaker 1: private credit usually for infrastructure, so like just to build
- 14:07Speaker 1: a data center, and you're seeing investment grade. You're also
- 14:10Speaker 1: seeing these neo clouds like core Weave who I mentioned to,
- 14:14Speaker 1: are sub investment grade. Sometimes not all of them, but
- 14:17Speaker 1: some of them are sub investment grades. So that's the
- 14:19Speaker 1: high year market. The junk bonds that people might know
- 14:23Speaker 1: they're in the structured credit markets that are you know,
- 14:27Speaker 1: these are basically taking bond payments that are gue and
- 14:31Speaker 1: slicing them up by risk and selling them off to people.
- 14:36Speaker 2: It's didn't something like that hal in the mortgage market,
- 14:40Speaker 2: was it twenty years ago?
- 14:42Speaker 1: We haven't got the kind of the CDO level or
- 14:44Speaker 1: CDO squared level. But like where I would be concerned
- 14:52Speaker 1: around that. Lending in particular is around what in real
- 14:55Speaker 1: estate is called speculative lending, which means something else too
- 14:58Speaker 1: many people. But in real estate it's basically building the
- 15:01Speaker 1: stuff before you have a tenant, and if you can
- 15:04Speaker 1: get finance, and that from a bank or from a
- 15:07Speaker 1: private credit lender, that says something about bubble territory because
- 15:10Speaker 1: they are taking a complete risk that you are building
- 15:13Speaker 1: this thing over the course of five years and you
- 15:15Speaker 1: will find somebody to occupy it. If not, or if
- 15:18Speaker 1: the industry moves on and technology moves on, you can
- 15:20Speaker 1: end up with a very expensive elephant at the end,
- 15:24Speaker 1: which may not have much residual value for people.
- 15:27Speaker 2: If you build it, they will come only walks in
- 15:29Speaker 2: the field of dreams done that.
- 15:32Speaker 1: I mean, there can be a first moving thing where
- 15:34Speaker 1: you can get away with it. But if you're spending
- 15:36Speaker 1: five billion credits building a data center, I would want
- 15:40Speaker 1: to be more certain of that. But we are beginning
- 15:42Speaker 1: to see elements of that, and we're also beginning to
- 15:45Speaker 1: see terms being pushed within those deals for lending that
- 15:54Speaker 1: maybe are too generous to the hyperscouts. That is the
- 15:57Speaker 1: point of view of the credit markets. So you're starting
- 16:00Speaker 1: to hear things like after a certain amount of time,
- 16:03Speaker 1: if the project is delayed, then the hyperscat to come
- 16:05Speaker 1: back out. Now, if you've invested five years and spent
- 16:09Speaker 1: as I say, five billion dollars in billiing a data
- 16:11Speaker 1: center and it gets a bit delayed because let's just
- 16:13Speaker 1: say something got stuck in the straits of her moves
- 16:16Speaker 1: at the moment, that's a very big risk. And so
- 16:19Speaker 1: again that's part of what's happening with the credit markets
- 16:21Speaker 1: and the pullback. They're kind of reconsidering some of the
- 16:25Speaker 1: levels of risk that they're accepting at the moment.
- 16:28Speaker 2: I mean from that point of view, this arguably, as
- 16:31Speaker 2: long as it's not already going too far, maybe a
- 16:33Speaker 2: good thing, and then maybe it gets a arein end
- 16:36Speaker 2: of horns a bit before it does go properly payer shaped.
- 16:42Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it was always going to happen.
- 16:45Speaker 1: And to be fair, like you look at something like
- 16:46Speaker 1: the Cosby and it's still up. You know, many of
- 16:49Speaker 1: the companies in are still up over one hundred percent
- 16:51Speaker 1: here today in some cases with AIA adjacent companies are
- 16:55Speaker 1: up three hundred percent for the year, so that you know,
- 16:58Speaker 1: and there was an act moment for a pause anyway.
- 17:02Speaker 1: And while we are seeing in terms of the Chinese evolution,
- 17:08Speaker 1: is that that was always going to happen as well.
- 17:10Speaker 1: And China's big advantages. It has cheap electricity, so the
- 17:14Speaker 1: tokenization is cheaper. So if you're a company that's also
- 17:18Speaker 1: been spending loads of money and AI and your staff,
- 17:21Speaker 1: it turns out are using it to convert excel files
- 17:24Speaker 1: into PDFs rather than actually, you know, using a much
- 17:27Speaker 1: cheaper technology for that, you're going to be scatting around
- 17:29Speaker 1: for cheaper prices. And so you know, China and the
- 17:33Speaker 1: Chinese LM's become a natural kind of success story from that,
- 17:37Speaker 1: and you know that was all to be expected, I
- 17:43Speaker 1: think when a certain reason, and it's just all happened
- 17:47Speaker 1: very quickly and all at once, as it does these
- 17:48Speaker 1: days and markets, and there's a bit of panic in
- 17:51Speaker 1: certain areas, particularly when it comes to retail money. You
- 17:54Speaker 1: and I have spent years writing about retail money being
- 17:57Speaker 1: hot money and how people can panic, and to be fair,
- 18:00Speaker 1: if I had leveraged several times, I've been looking at
- 18:02Speaker 1: that and kind of gone, oh my god. So it's
- 18:04Speaker 1: understandable in a way, but you know, if people are
- 18:06Speaker 1: sensible about how the investors still major opportunities there.
- 18:09Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah. My heart goes out to the
- 18:12Speaker 2: various kind of rookie retail investors in South Korea who
- 18:16Speaker 2: are now looking at, you know, some really nasty losses.
- 18:20Speaker 2: I'm hoping that they were all young enough to bounce
- 18:22Speaker 2: back from it. The only thanks very much for this
- 18:25Speaker 2: was really helpful. The one other thing I was asking
- 18:28Speaker 2: about is on the debt side to flood, the kind
- 18:32Speaker 2: of the debt market, if you like, And we have
- 18:35Speaker 2: also seen a bit of equity issuings, and I suppose
- 18:39Speaker 2: the other thing I'm wondering about, is how much can
- 18:42Speaker 2: the market take whenever We've had decades of de equitization,
- 18:48Speaker 2: so companies buying back order shares or getting bought off
- 18:52Speaker 2: the market, and now we're going to get quite unusually
- 18:57Speaker 2: kind of net equity issues quite possibly year. I mean,
- 19:01Speaker 2: my design city about what might happen regarding the tightness
- 19:05Speaker 2: of my overall as They're just not going to be
- 19:10Speaker 2: enough to go around for all the hungry mouths.
- 19:12Speaker 1: So I think investors would be discerning. I mean, you
- 19:15Speaker 1: can tell, you can tell an equity story that people
- 19:18Speaker 1: will follow. I mean, just thinking within AI, how many
- 19:22Speaker 1: of these companies we had heard of three years ago?
- 19:24Speaker 1: Very few of Annie and yeah you know that, and
- 19:27Speaker 1: they may not have very much revenue, but people are
- 19:30Speaker 1: wenting to bet on a deal. But there's also a
- 19:34Speaker 1: thing of like it can go wrong quite quickly, and
- 19:37Speaker 1: a SpaceX is probably a good example of that, and
- 19:39Speaker 1: unless say, went wrong, but there was so much hype
- 19:42Speaker 1: and now it's obviously down since its IPO price, which
- 19:45Speaker 1: was ambitious in the first place. I looked recently and
- 19:49Speaker 1: the short interests on the stock was at near forty percent,
- 19:52Speaker 1: So people are being very bearish on the future for it,
- 19:55Speaker 1: and that's probably the big question for investors at the moment,
- 19:59Speaker 1: SpaceX being partially the NAI story with data centers in space,
- 20:02Speaker 1: et cetera. Is has that and what happened to that
- 20:07Speaker 1: stock closed the I P O window for a while,
- 20:11Speaker 1: and in that sense, then the focus would shift back
- 20:15Speaker 1: to the equity markets. I started to the credit markets
- 20:19Speaker 1: and the credit markets, and Sculptor I think it was,
- 20:22Speaker 1: put an investor letter out recently and they said they
- 20:25Speaker 1: talked about how credit capacity is needed. It's great, it's
- 20:28Speaker 1: the extent just as people are pulling back, and that's
- 20:32Speaker 1: something you have to be a bit fearful of. I
- 20:33Speaker 1: think now often we have taught these things in two
- 20:37Speaker 1: weeks later, it's the market is that over sold and
- 20:40Speaker 1: it's all right back up and often exceeding the previous
- 20:44Speaker 1: size obviously, but at the moment, it's definitely a moment.
- 20:49Speaker 1: It's just the length that that moment takes.
- 20:52Speaker 2: Oay, well, look thanks a lot, Neil. I think that
- 20:55Speaker 2: was really helpful.
- 20:56Speaker 1: I hope.
- 20:58Speaker 2: That the main point it was to try and explain
- 21:00Speaker 2: to people what's going on, and I think you've done
- 21:02Speaker 2: that excellently. And obviously the market can remain excitable for
- 21:06Speaker 2: longer than anyone can remain solvent, especially if you're invested
- 21:10Speaker 2: in a leverage VTF, so just be careful out there.
- 21:13Speaker 2: Thanks again, Neil, Thank you, thanks for listening this week's
- 21:23Speaker 2: Merton Talks Money Markets RAP. If you like a show,
- 21:25Speaker 2: rate review and subscribe whever you listen to podcasts, and
- 21:28Speaker 2: also be sure to follow me on x or Twitter
- 21:30Speaker 2: at Joint Underscore Stepic. This episode was produced by some
- 21:34Speaker 2: of Sadi and Moses and am. Questions and comments on
- 21:38Speaker 2: the show are always welcome. Our show email is Merrion
- 21:41Speaker 2: Money at Bloomberg dot Net. Special thanks to Neil Callen.