Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Big Favorites, Recurring Dreams & a Parlay | NFL Week 15

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Big Favorites, Recurring Dreams & a Parlay | NFL Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, NFL Week fifteen has arrived. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: joined by my fellow favorites, the Prime Minister of Degenerate
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Nation Stucky and the Queen of the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: We'll hear from them in a moment.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: On today's episode, we're going to submit our official plays
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: for the week. We've got our stat of the Day
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: courtesy of Evan Abrams. Will get started with that in
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: a moment. Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings Kendris Pickle prop We've planted our flags already,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers, commanders bills.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Those are already in the app.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: You can tell everything that we talk about in the
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Action Network App, the award winning Action Network App.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Let's kick things off with.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams shrimply unbelievable stat of the Week, straight from
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the primer. As we enter Week fifteen, we've got some
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: big favorites entering uncharted waters. For Trevor Lawrence, anything north
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: of minus ten would be the biggest. The Trevor Lawrence
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: has been favored in his entire career.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: CJ.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Stroud has made forty six career NFL starts. His biggest
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: line minus eight at home against the Titans last year.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: How about the Bears.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: The Bears seven and a half point favorites against the
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Browns be the biggest favorite for Caleb Williams in his
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: short career. Then he of the Seattle Seahawks against who
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: knows who at quarterback minus thirteen and a half be
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: the biggest spread in Sam Darnold's career. So, Kendra, which
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: of these uncommon favorites is most likely to bring home
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: cash for anybody that backs them?
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: I feel like I probably have to say CJ. Stroud
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: just because we don't really know. The Bears are coming
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: off of a win, so I are off of a loss,
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: so I like the Bears chance to win here. I
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: just worry about the Browns defense. And obviously Shador no
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: real lgdentity. Yet we don't really know what we're gonna
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: get out of him. Inconsistent, good to fade him last week,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: we saw what he did in his first game. The
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: thing about Trevor Lawrence, for me, I would like to
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: say Trevor Lawrence. Obviously as a Jags fan, but the
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: kid can't play with a lead. We talk about, you
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: know some of his statistics. I think this year so far,
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: when he's trailing, he's thrown nine or ten interceptions, so
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: I just or when he's sorry, when he's leading, he's
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: thrown nine or ten interceptions. When he's trailing, I think
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: he's only thrown three. So the kid just can't play
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: with the lead. That's my fear here is that they're
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: going to get up. We know the statistics about Jags
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: against backup quarterbacks. That's also just a nightmare any Jags
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: fan that hears that they're going up against a backup quarterback,
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: which you can consider, you know, the whole justin Field situation, backup,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: not back up, whatever you want. I personally think that
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: Justin Field's career as a starter is probably over in
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: this league. He's not doing himself any favors by not
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: really coming across.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: As a team player.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: So I would say probably Trevor Lawrence, most concerning, but
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: most profitable, probably c J.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: Stroud.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I will be on none of these. My big favorite
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: this week is the forty nine ers. I'm not going
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: to lay double digits with two NFL teams this week.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: We'll just stick to the one. What about you, Stucky,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: If you had to lay the wood with one of these,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: who would you suggest?
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: Neither? I mean none of them. I like the Browns
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: at over a touchdown. I make that under seven. A
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: little concern about their O line, but that games, I
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: mean the totals like thirty nine. It's going to be
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: a heavy running game. The Bears rundy is really bad.
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: The Browns run dye is really good. Now they do
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: miss elite collins a bit, but they do have them
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: much better. I mean they're number two in rush success
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: for a number one rushing PA. The Bears are twenty eighth,
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: twenty six. The Bears are thirty first in defensive EPA.
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: If you remove turnovers, the turnovers are not going to
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: last forever. It's a tough spot too. It's in between
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: the game, sandwiched in between the two Packers games, which
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: are going to be absolutely massive. So I do think
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: the Bears win, but I think the line is a
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: bit too high. I don't have any interest in acting
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: the Texans laying a big number. They're just not built
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: that way, and they're properly. I think they're at the peak,
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: but They're at the peak of their market value now too.
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: Cardinals could easily get in the back door if needed.
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: There's a ton of injuries to watch for the Cardinals,
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: from offense to defensive, special team, so it's hard to
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: say right now, but not interested in laying double digit
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: of them. And I just don't know what to do
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: with the Seahawks. I don't know what's happening with a
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: quarterback situation with the Colts, and I have no idea
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: to put a number on that. And then San fran
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: and now I'm close to market. The forty nine Ers
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: defense is still horrendous and they don't get any pressure,
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: which will help Ward out. Titans have been backdoor kings
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: a lot this year, so I have no interest in
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: laying any of the big numbers this week.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I have the Bears in one of my two teaser
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: legs this week down to one and a half. That's
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the way I'll be playing that game for I'm debating
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals at plus nine and a half. I'm with you,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to lay it with any of these favorites.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: But if we're talking about the other side, the Cardinals
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: have been awful at home. They've actually covered five of
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: six on the road this year, and as Kendra mentioned,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: sleepy spot for the Houston Texans, consecutive weeks against the Bills,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Division rival Cults and the Chiefs and now you get
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals in the house. Just feels like one of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: those games has no business being close, but will be
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: at the end.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Of the one o'clock's.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: The only thing for me here is that the Cardinals
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: injury report is absolutely disgusting. But the biggest glaring issue
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: for me in all of this is Paris Johnson already
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: being ruled out. That is the part that is keeping
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: me away from the window on this number.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: It does feel huge. There's a lot of huge spreads
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: this week.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Like I said that, this would probably be the one
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: I'd be closest to getting to. But the Paris Johnson
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: thing in particular is the reason that I haven't gotten there.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: If you love it, go for it.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: I just don't think it's a bad spot because I
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: agree with Stucky it's the Texans market is the best
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: it's going to be if you like them. But I
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: just their and three report is too much I think
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: for me to be able to get to the window
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: on because it's just their whole offense is on the
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: Hitch Report like I just except for Trey McBride, our
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: king keep going.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, tied with Pookinakua for receptions this season. This one,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I would think Mike tick up to ten. So I
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: don't think there's.
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: There's out there right now. So don't don't take none,
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: nap if you like it, take ten.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: All right, We're gonna dig back into football in a moment.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Stucky hit me with the bizarre, the weird, the random.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: What you got?
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: Hey, this is a dumb question.
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: Let me ask you a personal question.
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: Kind of question?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Is that?
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: It is question two part questions? One do you remember
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: your dreams? And two? Do you have a recurring dream?
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: So why you think about that? I do. I remember
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: my dreams pretty vividly when I get the chance to dream.
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: And my one recurring dream that I've had for twenty
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: years is I and it's always during football and college
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: basketball season, when I'm just swamped and overwhelmed. I'm at
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: There's It's actually there's two of them. They're both very related.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: But I am at my desk in high school and
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: the teacher gives a test in my ap chem class,
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: which was so hard, and the teacher was a bear,
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: and I had no idea that there was a test,
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: and I'm like, oh my god. And then I look
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: at it and I'm like, I have no idea what
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: any of this is. And then the other one is
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: I wake up in college and I have to go
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: to the final exam for a class that I haven't
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: been to once in this semester.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: Very similar storylines here in the dream.
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I'm a big dream interpreter person. So like
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: all that means is like, you're overwhelmed, right, So like you,
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: that's how that's kind of manifesting in your dream. Like
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: you you're overwhelmed, you you're forgetting something, and then that's so.
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: But I have those dreams I don't know, this.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Is why you're this is why you're a prep hound
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: for that exact reason.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: Hundreds and hundreds of times in my life, and I
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: still wake up like, oh wait, okay, I'm good. I'm
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: not I'm out of college, I'm out of high school.
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: I still wake up freaked out for like a split
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: second every single time. So do you dream and you
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: have a recurring dream?
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: I actually have a notes app of all the weird
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: dreams that I have with like the dates and like
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: what happened. I have a note I have a note
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: app for my weird dreams and the times and places
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: that I get deja vu. I have both of those
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: things because once again I also like to interpret those
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: things like stucky.
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: But my reoccurring dream, I've had.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: It my entire life, literally for as long as I
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: can remember. My when we moved out of like my
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: childhood apartment and into a home in the suburbs, we
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: had this like railing that like overlooked the kitchen from
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: like my room and then like my brother's room. And
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: I have this dream all the time where I walk
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: out of my bedroom, walk down the stairs, and go
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: into the kitchen in the middle of the night to
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: get like a drink, and I open the fridge and
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: a forty foot anaconda starts chasing me around the house
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: and trying to eat me. And I'm like five years old.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: Maybe in this dream every single time it's this, I'm
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: in the same outfit, the same thing. I like, go
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: down there, I open the fridge and the anaconda is
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: coming out of the fridge and trying to eat me.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: That's the only reoccurring dream.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: That I have.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: But I do have a notes sapp of all of
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: my weird dreams. I'll wake up in the middle of
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: the night and just like write them down and then
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: look at it in the morning and go back and
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: look at them. And there are like reoccurring themes of
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: some of my like dreams. But I do have the
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: teeth falling out dream a lot, and usually bad things
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: happen after, And that's how I got into the dream
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: interpretation thing.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: So if your teeth are.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: Falling out, you better you better start a praying to
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: whatever you believe in, because that's just crazy.
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: Well, teeth usually means teethe means like you're worried about
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: money getting eat by a snake. I wouldn't assume that
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: just means you're stressed or overwhelmed by emotions. I would
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: assume that's what a lot of the dream interpretation stuff
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: would say, which makes sense. By your emotions teeth is
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: money worried about.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I've definitely heard that one before. Stucky sounds like he
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: has a pretty good grasp on.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: The says anxiety, stressed, or major life changes reflecting feelings
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: of helplessness and security or needing a transformation is when
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: you have dreams about your teeth falling out.
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, well a lot of some stress is money a
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: lot of times well so yeah, a lot of a
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: lot of them are stress excitement, and they just manifesting themselves.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Rabbits definitely a dream remember as well. So we've got
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: a full podcast full of full of weirdos in that regard.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: My wife does not remember her dreams at all, and
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: so it's that bugs me out. But I remember all
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: of mine when I wake up. I have a recurring one,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: but so depressing. I don't want to share it with anybody.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: That's just it's not about I did have a dream
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the other day that the Rams are going to play
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and I logged it
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in the app.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: So wow, I.
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: Have so many dreams that this is my life is
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: very sad. I have so many dreams where I'm just
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: in my basement man cave sweating games and I'm just
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: watching a fake game and sweating it.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: And then I talk in my sleep constantly, constantly, I'm
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: just some chatter. My wife will like one of the
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: funniest videos she ever took was like, I'm like, we're
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: all gonna die and just started screaming that. But usually
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: I'm just talking about like I can't believe they kicked
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: it from I can't believe they went for it. Are
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: they really going to kick this? I'll just be talking
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: about games that I'm watching, and then my wife will
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: just hag me on. She'll just start saying, like, oh, what,
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: what what? What's going on in the game, And then
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: I'll just keep talking like while I'm sleeping.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a I dated a sleep walker and
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: that was terrifying because they say that you're not supposed
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: to wake them up because they could get violent.
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: And I just like lay in the bed and.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Like wait for him to get back in while he
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: like walked around and talked and it was like the
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: scariest thing ever.
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: I was like no.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: And I also lived on the fifth floor in an
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: attic like the year that I was dating this kid,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: and I was always terrified that he was going to
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: like fall down the stairs.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know how people like that survive. I really
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: don't understand it.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: Stuck Instagram.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: There's a girl on Instagram who like she will like
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: cook things and like turn the stove on and like
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: start fights with her husband and she's like the nicest
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: person ever and like so willing to like make fun
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: of herself.
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: But she'll like post videos of.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Their like home cameras of her being insane in her
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: sleep online and they're funny, but I feel so bad
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: for her.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I would wrap myself in bubble wrap if I ever
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: were to do that.
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: Is you ever dreamer? Do you have any dream stories?
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Just because this is you know, this is a safe
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: place with all of our friends here.
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: To hear this now I do.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: So.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I lost my best friend four years ago. Uh, childhood
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: best friend, best man in my wedding, all of that
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: tragic stuff.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: And once at least once a month, I have a
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: dream where he's back, and like I know that he's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: only there for a short period of time and we
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: just have a ball and then and then I wake
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: up and it's like part of it is super depressing,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: because it's like you're reminded that that person isn't actually here.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: And then there's also this beautiful side of it where
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: see I told you, Gifford that.
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: It's okay, yeah we.
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: Were That's awful. My lost my best friend last week.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: I can't imagine part of it in some way and
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: then depressing in another right when you wake up.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: It's like, if somebody were to ask me, would you
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: like to continue experiencing this dream? To me, it would
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: be an undeniable yes. But it's still sad when you wake.
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: Up about like if I had a guess, actually I
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: don't even know. Haven't you have a car of occurring dream?
• 14:29
  Speaker 6: I have one very weird dream which is just me
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: on the top of a cab that is like bolted
• 14:35
  Speaker 6: in with my feet and there's like an elephant driving.
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: I've had it for like fifteen years. I couldn't describe
• 14:41
  Speaker 6: to you what's going on.
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: We're on top of a cab.
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: Yeah, you're bolted to the cab, but like like you're
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: like surfing on the top of a cab. There's like
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: an elephant driving. I have no idea what it means,
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: but I've had it for like fifteen years.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 14:54
  Speaker 7: And it's just it always pops up every once in
• 14:56
  Speaker 7: a while.
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: I have the test one a lot because I hated school,
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: so I'm always worried I'm missing like an exam.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: And if you know, if you look at my Action
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: Network profile, I talk about quicksand which is like when
• 15:08
  Speaker 6: it's like a term you use embedding or in life,
• 15:11
  Speaker 6: like when you're kind of like falling or things of
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: that nature. Well, I always dream about like bad things
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: and betting, So I I dream about like missed field goals.
• 15:19
  Speaker 7: I dream about like giving up goals and like stoppage time.
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: And I think it all just has to go back
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: to all the damn things I've I've witnessed and seen.
• 15:26
  Speaker 7: And I don't know, I'm weird, I.
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: Will I will say an elephant is generally seen as.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: A good No, I just google it wisdom strains and
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: good luck.
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: I got elephants all over my desk, so maybe that's it.
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: I don't know about that being bolted to the cab though,
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: like that's that feels like almost like a loss of
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: like fear of loss of control that you're not.
• 15:47
  Speaker 6: I assume it has I mean, I'm a New Yorker
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: born and raised, so I assume it has something to
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: do with like me seeing.
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: That all my life. But I have no idea. But
• 15:54
  Speaker 7: that is my dream, and just it's my dream and
• 15:57
  Speaker 7: only I can have it.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: It's so ironic. Stuck.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: He brought this up because I had this exact sort
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of the the bet anxiety. I fell asleep before the
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: end of the thunder Sun's game and I had a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: great The only bet I had last night was Grayson
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Allen under fifteen and a half points.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: And in my dream, Midge.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: In my dream he scored twenty five and I woke
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: up and just it was such a real dream of
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: just checking the app and seeing twenty five. I thought
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I lost the bet. Turns out he got kicked out
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: of the game, so we're all good.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: I want to say something.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: First of all, my village, my villain origin story is
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: Mac Jones and Grayson Allen growing up in the same
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: town at the same time as me. But second, I
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: would like to say that we just humanized ourselves to
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: each other and the audience.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: Love you guys.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: I hate that we're bonding over all, losing our best
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: friends at a young age, but love you guys mean it.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: And that is why we use this show as a distraction.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Time for action or distraction.
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: This is distraction distracting.
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: I'm not stacky.
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: I want it on the action.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Looking at the luck rankings on Action Network, the Broncos
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: clock in as the number one luck team in the NFL.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: The Packers are at fourteen.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Shout out to Nick Giffen on this that'll be the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: biggest differential on the board by my account, Kendra, action
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: or distraction on fading the Lucky Broncos.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: I am all action on fading both the Broncos and
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: the Patriots this week.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: We'll get into that a little later.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: I people have been I don't know about like on
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: a national level, but people have been so up in
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: arms about both of these teams here locally this week.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: I think it's the right thing to do.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: Obviously, Vegas knows better than us, you know, just average
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: degenerates over here, but I don't I've said on this
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: show for the last few weeks that the Bengals were
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: due for or that the Broncos were due for a
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: bad loss, and I think that it's gonna come this week.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: People are talking about, you know, the Packers are back
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: to when they got Micah Parsons, that whole vibe, that energy.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: They got healthier, they're better, they're finding their you know, groove.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love maybe making an end, you know, run for himself.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be anybody other than
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Matt Stafford at this point, but I think that the
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: Packers have every right to be favored here.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Well you stuck.
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll be on the Packer's funny story about the
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: action of our gap or one of our college basketball contributors, Tanner.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: I was in the shower and during football, I had
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: to shower my phone in case the line moves. So
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: I'm just have my phone out and showering, and I
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: get a notification. It says green Bay minus one fifteen.
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: Tanner logs it, and I'm like, oh my god, because
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: I'm waiting for our cheap money online. It could be
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: a lower scoring game. Kick Packers are some kicker issues.
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: I do think it's a good matchup for them schematically.
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: They play a lot of zone nicks, really struggles against own.
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: Broncos play out a single high. I think Love can
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: nit some explosive passes, and yeah, the Broncos have been
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: extremely lucky. I think the Packers are sending you don't
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: you know me. I'm team Packers from since the beginning
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: of the year, and we'll be until they're eliminated.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: So I ran.
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: I started pulling up the board to look for but
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: it was Green Bay and I didn't even see the basketball.
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: It was the Phoenix. It was Green Bay basketball minus
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: one fifteen money line. I've been waiting for like a
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: minus one fifteen minutes one twenty money line all week
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: and then I saw that, and I got excited. But yeah,
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: I like the Packers here so interesting. Note we talked
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: about this on the Action of our podcast courtesy of Heaven.
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: Since nineteen eighty we have two by the way, we
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: have two teams on a ten game ten plus game
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: winning streak. They broke on ten game winning streaks in
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: the NFL that might close its home dogs this week
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: and the Patriots and the Broncos. We have only seen
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: that one time since nineteen eighty, never in the regular season.
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: It only happened back in five with the Patriots and
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Steelers in the AFC Championship game. Steelers were two and
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: a half point home dogs on an extended winning shot.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: They lost forty one to twenty seven. But I do
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: think the Packers get it done on the road.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: This was the other piece of my teaser, was taking
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: the Broncos up bo Nicks. The teaser.
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: God, I don't mind getting It's a decent teaser piece.
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: Low total get cross three, three and seven. I don't
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: think the Broncos are a bad teaser piece.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: So I usually just log one.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I don't want to overdo it with teasers because of
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the juice that goes along with it. But Bears, Bengals, Saints,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Broncos not all together. I would separate them, but I
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: love getting those numbers.
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: Say those are my two favorite.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: So and so Kendra, on the last episode, you said
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: that I never I don't have any faith in you.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I'm tailing you on the Commanders.
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: By the way, I know.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: I saw your mention to me in the app. I
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: was I thought that that was very cute, and I
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: didn't know you could do that. So now I'm going
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: to start yelling at you guys on the app too.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: You can treat action like it's social media, all right.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: The Eagles have removed there recently added positivity bunny action
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: or distraction. Stucky on that being a bad omen for
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: I mean, can the positivity bunny play quarterback? If they're
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: taking out of the locker room and putting them under center,
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: maybe that'll help. But no, I mean, they cut their
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: long snapper, they remove the bunny. None of that is
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: going to fix the offense and their hitch routes and
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: no motion and no play action. A worse off offensive
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: line hurts, not running, hurts, not being able to read
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: a defense, their struggles versus zone. This offense is in
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: the tank. It is. You're not going to fix an
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: offense this late in the season. I'm sorry. I mean,
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: a game can be done, but it's very very rare.
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: You pretty much are who you are. Doesn't mean they
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: can't They can't make a run, No, absolutely not. That's football.
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: You play with an oblong ball. They could win some
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: lower scoring games.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: But.
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: No, I'm not buying.
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: Into these Eagles offense until I see a long stretch
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: of more. But I just I don't know what would
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: fix it right now. This is reminiscent. I keep saying it.
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: Twenty twenty three, Brian Johnson. They started off hot, they
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: were winning games to spike struggles on offense, and then
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: the end of the season they imploded. And if you're
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: an Eagles fan, be a little nerve. I would be
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: a little nervous this speak. I know it's the Raiders,
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: But Kenny Pickett I think can move around a little
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: better than Gina Smith in twenty twenty three with when
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: you were tanking. I mean they were in free fall mode.
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: I think they lost five to six to give away
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: the division at the end of the season, and they
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: got blown out by the Bucks. They lost to the
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: Cardinals as eleven and a half point home favorites. Cardinson
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: to won three or four games, and they lost after
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: a Monday night game to a Pete Carroll coach team
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: with a backup quarterback Drew Locke. So if this is
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: a true copycat season of twenty twenty three, I'd be
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: a little nervous. But no, I don't want any part
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: of the Eagles right now.
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: I have a question other than Nick Foles, I'm going
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: to throw out like the starter, like true starter.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: Is this the biggest falloff.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: We've seen from a quarterback winning a Super Bowl into
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: the next season.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: What did Trent Dilford do of the Ravens won the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl? I would think he'd be part.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: Of that conversation because this is bad. Cut. Yeah, so
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: that's pretty bad. Jalen Hurts at least won't get cut.
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: No, I mean I he was, Yeah, don't first started
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: with the Seahawks. I think after the Ravens won the
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl, Flacco, Uh, the Ravens gave him all that money.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but he's still out there balling, So I don't
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: really I mean you could, I guess, are you Flacco?
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: But was Elvis flopped so bad? But he didn't win
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: a Super Bowl?
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: I thought he was gonna be so good when I
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: was a kid.
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: I was in on gerback when the Ravens signed him.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: The biggest fall off for the next year after a
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl win, I'm trying to think.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: I think his answer would be Nick Foles, but he
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: wasn't a true starter that season. So yeah, Wilson's dropped
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: was more that was over time, it was gradual.
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's got.
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: Joe Claco was truly awful the next year, but so
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: like he's up there. I mean not to say that
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: Hurts can't bounce back. I have a good career like
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: Flacco was able to bounce back. But Flacco's twenty I mean,
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: can you look that up on rambling? Well, Flacco's twenty
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: thirteen year, I think it was really bad. He I mean,
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: he was like the worst quarterback in the league. And
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: then all Ravens sands are like, we gave him all
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: this money, and then our team the Ravens were bad
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: for a couple of years because we couldn't afford anything else.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: It's, you know, when you really to think about it,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: the exercies question. You have.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have been mopping up most
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: of the Super Bowls for the last twenty years, so
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: there's not really that many options.
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, well it's very rare because it's hard. Like Gilpher
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: was a good one and he got cut and then
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: I think he only played a couple of games and
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: got hurt the next year in Seattle. But if you
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: think about it, it's very hard to win over the
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: last twenty years, at least, it's very hard to win
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: a Super Bowl and not be an elite quarterback that's sustained.
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: I mean you're talking about I mean, yeah, it's been Mahomes, Brady, Hurts, Foles,
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: Brady Manning, Brady Ross, Flacco, Eli might be up there.
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: He probably had a bad year after one of his
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: but then it's like Ben Peyton, Ben Brady, Brad Johnson.
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: I don't know what he did the year after. But yeah,
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: it's hard to find like a quarterback where you're like,
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: the next year they didn't do much. You got to
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: could probably go back to like the seventies or but
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: even then that's with all the Steelers, and so, I
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: don't know, we haven't way what would you answer that
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: off the top of your head.
• 25:46
  Speaker 6: I mean, I just simply looked at teams to lose
• 25:49
  Speaker 6: three straight after winning a Super Bowl to try to help,
• 25:52
  Speaker 6: like narrow down the list. Twenty two Rams but different quarterback,
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: twenty sixteen Broncos but different quarterback thirteen Ravens would be
• 26:01
  Speaker 6: the last one you might use an example. Then the
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: oh nine Steelers and O six Steelers actually both lost
• 26:06
  Speaker 6: three straight the next year.
• 26:08
  Speaker 7: Oh three Bucks is probably a good answer to the question.
• 26:12
  Speaker 6: Uh, it was it was the same quarterback next year
• 26:15
  Speaker 6: right after, right, was it, Brad Johnson?
• 26:17
  Speaker 7: I think so I would have to look that up.
• 26:19
  Speaker 7: But and that actually might be the answer.
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: But given the fact that Flacco and I put it
• 26:23
  Speaker 6: in there, twenty two touchdowns and ten picks in the
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: Super Bowl winning year, and then he threw twenty two
• 26:28
  Speaker 6: interceptions the next year with.
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: How many touchdowns probably fewer nineteen, yeah, fewer as well interceptions.
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: That's bad, bad year.
• 26:37
  Speaker 7: Yeah, especially after you went and all.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: And let's also keep in mind with with Brad Johnson
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: and Trent Dilfer, those got those. Those teams were not
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: built on the back of their quarterback. Jalen Hurts was
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: a huge reason why the Eagles were as good as
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: they were last year.
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so was twelve. People forget that wasn't the Ravens defense.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: That's why I think Flacco is the answer for that reason,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: because Flacco, those are those.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: I get a segue to Philip Rivers now, because that's
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: a perfect segue.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about one drop off to another, the
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Colts quarterback situation. Certainly that the Colts are considering playing
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers on Sunday.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: Hold you, guys, I told you.
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: You might be right. I didn't think there was any chance.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Shows himself worthy in practices. I mean, I've only seen
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: a couple of clips online. He looks fine in those,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: but everybody does action or distraction. Kendra, have you come
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: around on backing the old grandpa.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: Of fat number.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm gonna back father Philip. I would
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: be more likely to back Riley Leonard just because he
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: have you guys seen some of his tape from practice?
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: He is respectfully.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: Thick like, respectfully I'm not one to you know, shame
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: around here, but he is not in playing shape. I
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: think that you'd be better off with Riley Leonard. I'm
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: not even joking, like I serious, he's not And I
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: still think that you'd be better off with Riley Leonard
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: than alliterated.
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: Rand Tyler Warren run wildcat.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: That's what I was thinking, is that, like, you've got
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: to consider Tyler Warren for like, in any time like
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: because if they have to toush push on the goal line,
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: you know what's going to be Tyler Warren.
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: Tyler Warren tiny time touchdown is a very good bet,
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: I think this week because Rivers usually with a backup
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: quarterback anyway, and against the Seahawks, who can get pressure,
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: they they don't let up anything deep Like you're he's
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: we're just gonna be looking at his tight end. I
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: mean he's done that his whole career anyway. I mean
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: he's gonna be looking to Warren and you might get
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: Warren near the goal line, and even if it's Riley Leonard,
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: he's gonna be looking at Warren. Like usually the tight
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: ends who are good getting get a bunch of extra
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: looks when it's the backup because it's like, but against
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: the Seahawks especially, you got to throw it. Underneath the
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: name of this segment is action or distraction. This is
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: the biggest distraction ever because I mean, I'm probably not
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: gonna bet it. I don't know how to set a lot,
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: like we've never seen this before, a grandpa, a thick grandpap.
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: If it's been out of the league for five years, would.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: They other fill up?
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: So, like, how do I price this? I don't know.
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: I don't how do you even I don't even know
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: how to price the Leonard right like it's I will.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: Say, Jonathan Taylor's rushing yard props are not available on DraftKings.
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: There's like some consensus picks out there, but they're not
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: even available. I went to log like look at them
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: for my pickle stuff, and the only thing that I
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: saw that I'll probably wind up getting to the window on.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: We don't have it on our app But DraftKings does
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: have over his longest carry over fourteen and a half yards.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: I think that's a solid look just because they're going
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: to run him into the absolute ground.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I respect that you guys are trying to find angles here.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I would say stucky how about if for those out
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: there that just want to try and come up with
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: their own line on this game and try an attempt
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: to price this, if you were to compare this to
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: whatever you think the biggest drop off is from starting
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: quarterback to their backup, whatever that number is. Just describing
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: that number to the Indianapolis cults, does that make sense?
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: I mean maybe maybe, but it might be, it might be,
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: it might be worse. Might the the aerrorban on that
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: is huge because I mean maybe because you're going from Leonard.
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: We don't even know how good Leonard is. But if
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: you went from Jones to I mean the Jones hasn't
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: been great either. That's another thing. And then there's injuries
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: on the Colts, but I don't know the biggest your
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: get is like from like an elite quarterback to the
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: bottom of that like your third string. You could say
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: like at times it could be like eight, nine ten points,
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: which is what this is. There's other injuries and other
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: factors here, but this look at line and you upgraded
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: the Seawks at the last week, downgraded the Colts, But
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: look at line is what like three and a half
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: and now we're at fourteen, So like I don't even
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: know what number I would want to better. But this
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: I when I said this is a distraction because I
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: was think the Seawks are like the top of their
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: market value, but I don't know how to price the Cults,
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: which makes it difficult. We like, I'm gonna want I'm
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: gonna want the Packers at four. We have Lions Rams
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: at four. Luckily Titans forty nine ers not a great game,
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: Panthers Saints that has some playoff ramifications. But we have
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: five games at four, which is cool, but usually had
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: like three for the past three weeks. And now I'm
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: gonna be so fixated on if it's Rivers, what he's doing,
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: and how this looks. So yeah, a distraction because I'm
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: probably not gonna have money on it, but I'm gonna not.
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna want to watch every snap when he's out
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: there to see what this looks like. We've never seen
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: it before from a betting opportunity. Is there any advice
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: I can give? No, not of the straight face.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Stay away still the Comrade. Two Kings and a Queen
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: parlay gets nominated. But first a word about DraftKings from
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the first Lady.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sports book,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
• 31:57
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• 32:00
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• 32:03
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• 32:05
  Speaker 4: At even bigger payout.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: To get started, use promo code favorites when signing up
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: with DraftKings. Again, use code favorites when signing up and
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: bet five bucks to get two hundred back in bonus bets.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Kendra, talk to us Week fifteen props. What has you
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: in a pickle?
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: We're in a pickle now, I'm really in a pickle now,
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: all right, look we're gonna pickle again.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: Hey.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: So originally I was like, I said, gonna look the
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor route here, but I am going to instead
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: look at the Jets defense. I know that they've had
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: a hard time getting interceptions this season.
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence will throw them. He will throw them, especially
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: if they have a lead.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: It's plus one to eleven right now for him to
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: throw an interception. I think the lights in Jacksonville are
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: bright I think that they do win this game, but
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: you have to remember that the Jets have a history
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: of whin I think games they shouldn't for draft position
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: against Jacksonville at home.
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: The Jags have Trevor Lawrence.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Because the Jets beat them late in the season in
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty off of a Frank Or touchdown that he
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: could have just sat down. It would have ended the
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: game and they were got the first overall pick. Instead,
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: they ended up with Zach Wilson gave the first pick
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that's how he wound up.
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: That's how we wound up with Trevor Lawrence. So there's
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: a little bit of that history there. I don't like
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence playing with a lead, and I know that
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: the Jets defense has a hard time, you know, creating turnovers,
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: specifically interceptions, so I don't think that that's bad value.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: I can hear our producer David Payne screaming into the
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: void right now, because we tried to do this last
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: week with Tua and turnover prone Tua, who's tied for
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: the league lead with interceptions, was not able to throw
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: one in a dominant effort against the Jets, so I
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: can't meet you there.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: I'm scarred.
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: I like it, lucky, Yeah, I have plus money. I
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: don't mind it at all. The Jets are going this
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: is the longest streak in NFL history to start a season.
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: Maybe overall. I don't think he's any team ever gone
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: fourteen games out of then interception. I highly doubt it.
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: Haven't you know he's so, but can look it up.
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: You mentioned the Jets, by the way. The yeah that
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: the that the Jets beat the Rams, and remember that
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: in December of twenty twenty, is that the Jets were
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: like two touchdown dogs at the Rams and in like
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: week seventeen or sixteen, and they lost the number one pick.
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: That's why they That's where, that's where, that's because that's
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: why the Jags have Lawrence.
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: I will never regret because of Frank Gore. Literally it's
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: because of Frank Gore. He should have sat down on
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: that field and they would have. There was a really
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: long shot that the Jags were going to be able
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: to get the first pick that season. It was a
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: whole thing, but it genuinely came down to that last game.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: Frank Gore scores that touchdown walk off when and that's
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: how they wound up giving the first pick to the
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars and winding up with Zach Wilson. Remember it
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: like it was yesterday. I drank an entire bottle of
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: wine and one go that draft night. I will never
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: I literally one touched it on a live stream. I
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: will never forget this.
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: What was the spread?
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: Avam?
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: Can you look at the spread twenty twenty jets rams?
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: I think it was fourteen ish, like it was big.
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: But because of that, you guys got Trevor Lawrence and
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: if you still hate him, but if that didn't happen,
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: you would add Zach Wilson and you wouldn't be in
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: the playoffs right now.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: It all works out in the end time for the
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: reason you came here today, our two kings and a
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: Queen Parlay will each nominate two plays and see if
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: we can land on some general consensus. And I have
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a feeling, based on looking ahead here, that there's gonna
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: be some disagreement. We haven't had a head to head
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: bet in weeks, and I think we're about to have one.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: So let's see where we're going on with you.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: Well, I'm going let me see if This line up
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: is zach because it's on the move. Yeah, it's five
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: and a half a DraftKings, that's fine, anything under six.
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: I like the Chiefs against the Chargers. Brandon. I know
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: you're gonna make a case for the Chargers. Your your
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: timing is all off. We told you don't bet the
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: Chiefs last week, the whole must win, blah blah. Over
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: the past month, I fell for none of it. This
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: is the time to bet the Chiefs. And this isn't
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: even about the Chiefs, although I think it's a good
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: matchup with their offense. Chargers by the most zone in
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: the league. They don't get pressure mames in this offense.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: They're struggling against man, but they're still a lead against zwone,
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: so I think they'll be able to move it. The
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: Chargers are broken. This is a bad football team right now.
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: I mean you want the Eagles are also broken. The
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: Eagles dominated that game last week. They had a seventy
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: percent pressure rate, the highest of the year. They didn't
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: even have Jalen Carter. They sacked at Herbert seven times,
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: and the only and the Chargers need The Eagles turned
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: it over five times, and the Chargers needed a goal
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: line stand to win in overtime. They were dominated in
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: that game. They cannot run a functional offense right now
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: with the state of their offensive line. A seventy percent
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: pressure rate allowed when Jalen Carter is not playing is crazy.
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: And the Eagles don't even get with Jane Carter don't
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: even get as much pressure as the Chiefs. The Chargers
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: on the road this year, and by the way, this
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: is a short week on the road in the cold,
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: the freezing cold. That's not great for Herbert sand on
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: the road this year since they've had offensive line injuries.
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: They lost at the Giants, they lost by thirty to
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: the Jags, they barely beat the Dolphins, and they barely
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: beat the Titans. I think the Chiefs take them out
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: behind the woodshed win by fourteen plus in mean Kansas City.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: And my other one, I don't want to steal Kenders thunder.
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: I agree with her on one. And by the way,
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: Chiefs have play the much harder schedule. They're thirty five
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: net points better. I think it's just a really good
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: matchup for them. Let's go through and I'll throw out
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: the Browns over time. I make it under a touchdown.
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: I mentioned in the run defenses. Browns much better run
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: d It's a tough situational spot for the Bears. Maybe there,
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: but it's just over a touchdown. I make it under
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: a touchdown. It's a low total. I'm worried about the
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: offensive line for the Browns. I'll put that out. I
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: don't know the injury report's gonna come out, but there's
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: a chance you got kt Leviston at tackle, Wipeler or
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: new center and they're miserable. But the Bears at least
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: don't get a lot of pressure. Their defense is not great.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: They have injuries in the secondary. So yeah, we'll go
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: Browns plus seven and a half or Chiefs minus five
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: and a half. Brandon, we're going head to head. We'll
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: add up all the way I haven't keeping track them,
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: and then we'll exchange gifts.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: I know you.
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: You owe me a lot more as of right now, but.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: I think I owe you my left arm and some
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: crab cakes at this point.
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: Well, what is a good Chiefs? I mean, Kansas City
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: is known for barbecue.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Going to come up with something lightning related? In my head?
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe uh, maybe we could crowdsource that.
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: Electric bell.
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: Yes, so we too, so we know Brandon's not gonna vote.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: He's voting for the Chargers. Well, he's not going to vote,
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: He's not gonna I'm fine.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with the Browns plus the points. I think
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: you know, the Bears have been over valued all season,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: so that's fine.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: I want the Chiefs, all right, So tough, tough, Okay.
• 39:28
  Speaker 7: I want nothing to do with the Chiefs Chargers game.
• 39:30
  Speaker 6: So I would prefer Cleveland just because I don't want
• 39:33
  Speaker 6: to bet the Chiefs with margin. And the Chargers last
• 39:36
  Speaker 6: week got by like by the skin of their teeth,
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: like they stuck.
• 39:40
  Speaker 7: He's right.
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: They look an absolute goddamn mess. So I just I
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: want to sit back and watch that KC game with
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: little on it. I think Chicago's favored by too much.
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I will just throw out there. So we're gonna
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: go with the Browns. For my the Eagles, which their
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: offense is broken. They all gained the Chargers three sixty
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: five to two seventy five, and and their offense can't
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: move it against zone and they average five and a
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: half yards per play. The Charges runder four if they
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: turned it over five times, and they still had a
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: chance to win. Like at the end of the game,
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: they were at the ten with a chance to win it,
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: and now short week on the road in the cold,
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: Herbert could go down at any point in time with
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: this hand, and the Chiefs are going to get a
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: ton of pressure. And this isn't the Texans. Like the
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: Texans can get pressure an elite level. The Texans defense
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: is a league Charger's defense is good and solid. They'd
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: take away all explosive plays. But the Chiefs are fine
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: moving ticket and Duncan. I think that's what they need
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: to do here. But the Charters are just a dysfunctional offense.
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: You cannot run this offense on the road in hostile
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: environment with this offensive line. Herbert is gonna get It's
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: gonna get eventually is gonna get killed and hurt more.
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: It's a seventy percent Pressure's insane. But I'm going with
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: the Browns. Kendra, what do you got?
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: I think you guys are both probably happy with either
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: direction we go in this just based off of context.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Cluse the last couple of episodes, I very much am
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: in on the Bills, especially now that they are underdog.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: I think it's a revenge spot.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: No, you know, real weather advantage here for either team
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: I also, I hate to say this, and I think
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: someone's probably gonna clip this and send it to my producer,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: but I don't think that the Patriots have that good
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: of a home field advantage.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: I really don't. They're not allowed group of people. I
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: think they're complacent.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: I don't think that Jellette is allowed stadium or hard
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: stadium to play an outside of the weather at all.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: That being said, the Bills also know that there is
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: never If they don't win the Super Bowl this year,
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: it's never gonna happen for them.
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: That window is going to close.
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: You're never going to have another season without Lamar Jackson,
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes potentially in your way, and
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: now you have to add Drake May into that mix.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: I think it's a must.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: Win for the Bills, or we can go at the
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: Bengals another must win scenario.
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: Joe Burrow as a dog. We can talk about all
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: of those things.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: I just also think that the Bengals have way more
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: fight than the Ravens do right now. The Ravens are broken,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: specifically Lamar Jackson, but their entire team is broken. You
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: can point the injury report not looking as great for
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: the Bengals. I just loved Joe Burrow as a dog.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: I think the stafer bed here is probably the Bills.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: But where you guys fall.
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: I'll say, I it's just the Ravens. Games are too
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: hard to better right now, Like fading them is a
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: favorite over field goal. I think makes sense. Lamar looked
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: a little better. It's just like when is Lamar gonna
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: click with this all? I don't know. They don't get pressure,
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: so Borrow should have a day. That's a coin flippish game.
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: So I'm gonna vote for the Bills. I like the Bills.
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: I bet the Bills. I would vote we go with
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: Bills money line. The Patriots have been Look, they've won
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: ten straight. They've been good. Drake May's been good, but
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: they've been They've also been off by Yeah, the Vabil's
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: been great off of bye. But I mean these teams
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: over the last ten years have been very overrated at
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: home off of a bye, especially in Division forty percent
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: against the spread. But like, the Patriots are fourteen of
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: eighteen on fourth down on the year, number one in
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: the league one point seven EPA per play, opponents are
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: just seven of twenty two, number three, So like those
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: are huge swing game plays in the game. They've had
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: fifteen fumbles only lost seven. They've recovered seventy percent end
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: of their opponent bumbles. Drake May he's been amazing, but
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: he only has six interception. He has fourteen turnover worthy plays.
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: It's gotten away with some throws. Where I think this
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: game is decided is twofold. The Bill's going to run
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: the ball. The Patriots run ding in the beginning of
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: the year was elite. Since Week eleven they're twenty fourth.
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: Excuse me, they're thirty first and rush success rate allout
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: loss of Milton Williams some other injuries, so I think
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: the Bills will be able to better run it here
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: and then the red zone. The Patriots' biggest problem is
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: in the red zone. They are twenty fourth on offense
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: and on defense they're dead last in the NFL, and
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: so I think the Bills are go. Look, they're gonna
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: play a lot of zone. They don't play a lot
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: of single high like Drake may is gonna move the
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: ball now they can get some pressure and the Patriots
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: left tackle is big here, but Arian Lowe is unplayable,
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: so their offensive line is not fully healthy. But I
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: think the top of the market.
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: What's that need botha to play?
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: Yeah, boats of playing would would be very helpful. But
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: here's the quarterbacks that the pat Patriots have beat. The
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: sides out and by the way, the Bill's had three
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: turnovers and eleven penalties and lost in a walk off
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: fifty yard field goal. Jackson Dart when the Giants special
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: teams is a disaster, Bryce Young special teams is a disaster.
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: Flacco with no Chase justin fields, Michael Pennix. They won
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: by one on a missed extra point, Jilan Gabriel, cam
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: Ward Spencer, Rattler, Tua and Baker who's playing as bad
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: as bad as any quarterback in the league over the
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: past ten weeks. That seven of the ten quarterbacks besides
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: out seven of the ten quarterbacks that they beat this
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: year are no longer starting or rookies, and they lost
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: to Geno and Rodgers. Are the Patriots good? Yes, But
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: I think the Bills get it done. So I'm gone
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: with Buffalo.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Yep. I have already placed a bet on.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: I haven't gotten there fully individually on the Buffalo Bills,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: but I have gotten to the window on Josh Allen.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Anytime touchdown for a lot of the reasons that stuck.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: You just mentioned thirty second in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Josh is the Winter Soldier, and I figure, if the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Bills are going to win this football game, can't you
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: just envision we started this episode talking about remembering our dreams,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen rumbling down the field as he's one to
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: do five rushing touchdowns in his last four games. If
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: they win this game, Allen's gonna have a rushing touchdown,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: especially with the defensive woes in the red zone at
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: the Patriots have had. I've got no problem adding the
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Bills to our parlay.
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: That will be my vote, high high. And this is
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: one Ilan usually breaks out his legs much more. By
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: the way, going back to the Jets question, this is
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: an NFL record on fewest turnovers, the second fewest the
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: Jets last year with two. Unbelievable.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: So we got we've two settled.
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: Brown's good.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: There.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: We have the Browns plus seven and a half Bills
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: plus one and.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: A half.
• 45:51
  Speaker 5: Bills money line.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Bill's money line. All right, I gotta refresh. You gotta
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: get this in the app. Okay, even if it's just
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: for content purposes. I need to lay out my case
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: for the Chargers because I know that this is the
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: square side. I know that I'm in a battle with Stuckey,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: who has won ninety percent of our head to head
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: bets this season.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: But I don't care.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: This line is a case of sharp stubbornness that I
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: am putting pushing back on.
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: You.
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: Last week, you followed the scene.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I got caught up in the moment I was having
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: a losing week. I didn't realize by the way I
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: bet that before I realized that we won on the Raiders,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: because you know, I was trying to be a diligent
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: worker and lock in on the podcast, and I didn't
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: realize that Pete Carroll also had money on the football game.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Otherwise I would have just let the bet ride. That
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: was a mistake, Okay, mistake number one.
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: Casons are like two two and a half points better
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: than than the Chargers right now.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: But follow me through this thought exercise because I would
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: like an explanation on this because we have at the
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: beginning of the season, we have a neutral site line
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: to base off of for this matchup. The Chiefs were
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: minus three at close in that game against the Chargers.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: That was in Brazil, so no home field advantage off line.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs have home field advantage here. The Chargers are
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: coming off of an overtime game short week Monday night football.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: This is in division that chips away at that advantage
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit that would give, So I would be
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: comfortable giving the Chiefs two and a half points for
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: home field advantage. That would get us to five and
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: a half the difference between the original line at the
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: beginning of the season and adding two and a half
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: for home field advantage. But that's assuming that the Chiefs
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: are the same team that we thought they were coming
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: into the year. This to me is an over attachment
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: to priors being on the Kansas City Chiefs. They are
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: not the team that we thought they were coming into
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the year.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: They've lost five Chargers.
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: The Chargers are a couple points war. They have no
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: O line, They cannot run a functional offense. At the
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: beginning of the year, they had all pro tackles. They
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: don't have to any tackles now. They just gave up
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: a seventy percent pressure rate in seven sacks of the
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: Eagles at home indoors. They are worse off than the
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: Chiefs are worse off the end of the year, the
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: Chiefs have just gone one in six and one possession games.
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: They are forty points better in point differential with a
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: twenty spot harder schedule. The Chiefs are still power rated
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: as a top two or three team. The Charters have
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: been downgraded and should be. I mean the Chargers over
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: the past month, Like they beat the Titans, the Steelers,
• 48:38
  Speaker 5: they got lost by thirty at Jacksonville the Raiders, and
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: then got lucky versus the Eagles. Like none of these
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: teams are impressive. This is still a team that got
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: blown out at home by the Commanders, blown out by
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: the Colts on the road. They've done nothing all year
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: but throw it all out. They don't have an offensive line.
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: They are incapable of running a functional offense unless they're
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: playing an impoverished defense.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: It's not like running a functional offense either. And this
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: goes that we have five losses in a row for
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs against the spread, but it goes back further
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: than that. You have mahomes Is nine to seventeen ats
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: in his last twenty six games. This is now going
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: on multiple seasons, and I get a Chargers team that's
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: catching five and a half on the road against the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Chiefs team that's having a tough time putting up points.
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: Your timing is off, your rhythm is off of this. Yeah,
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: you drove in last week on the time.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: Now you're saying, oh, they haven't covered in a month,
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: this is.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: Not good timing. I will always.
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: Buy the Chiefs. I'm telling you I have bought. I
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: haven't bought them in a month. This is mainly a
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: fate of the charter, and it's good matchup with the Chiefs.
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: The Chiefs can get pressure and they're great against zone.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: I will always take Last week was the.
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: Time to take it. You have the Texans with an
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: elite defense and they they are they are like ascending.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: The Chargers are tanking. I'm telling you the Chargers can't believe.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Chargers can't believe that I I'm the one that is
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: about to say that. You are trusting Patrick Mahomes to
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: win by margin here, which is not something that he
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: has been able to do.
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: I trusted the Jags and Trevor Lawrence against this Chargers
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: team in Jacksonville. I'm trusting Patrick Mahomes.
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: Okay, but that's not saying much. Look at the last
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: time the Chargers played in Jacksonville.
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: They own him.
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: The Chargers on the road can't run an offense team.
• 50:24
  Speaker 6: We can't see very no good guy, very no bad guy.
• 50:34
  Speaker 7: And we trust disagree.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: So obviously we're not going with that. That was just
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: for argument's sake. But Vikings plus five and a half
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: would be the other one.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: I just think the line is too high.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Minnesota significantly better in terms of the defensive side of
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: the ball. PFF also has them as the number one
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: graded special teams unit in the NFL. I think a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: lot of people would assume that that's Dallas because of
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Brandon Aubrey.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: Good coach, love.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Me some KOC and it seems like they've figured out
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: how to settle down JJ McCarthy. Their quarterback play was
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: so bad they were unbettable for me for weeks.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: You were on them.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Last week they bounced back in a big way, but
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: overvalued Cowboys team on the road. I'd wait on the
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: six personally, but I would if this is at five
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: and a half before the game, I'll bet the Minnesota Vikings.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: So if we want to throw them in the parlay,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: that would be my other nomination.
• 51:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah, by the way, both of these since Week four
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: when the Chargers didn't have tackles left EPA for play
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: Chiefs offense number five, Chargers twenty four. I yeah, I
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: like the Vikings. I played them, So I'm in on
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: this at DraftKings right now. Yeah, five and a half
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: is the best we can do.
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: When and Williams is going to have a career day.
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: You guys are nuts.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: And well, I mean I guess week let's see. Yeah,
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: we five and a half the best we can do here.
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm in on this. I think that this
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: line is just too high, and this Dallas defense is
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: still not great. It's but we saw them and what
• 52:09
  Speaker 5: they did in Detroit. It's still not good on the
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: back end. I think JJ McCarthy look, and this is
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: a trending off healthwise, defense, offensive line. They've had so
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: many offensive line injuries and Dallas is just I think
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: this comes down to the number for me. And homefield
• 52:23
  Speaker 5: isn't as great here you have an indoor team going
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: to an indoor stadium. I'm fine with the Bikings.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: I like them.
• 52:28
  Speaker 5: I think this line's too high.
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: You don't like it, doesn't matter what I say. Then, No, I.
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: Don't like chief So you don't like either of them.
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: I like your Chief, yeah exactly. I hate both of these.
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: This is what Krawits does to me every week.
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: He's like, how can I piss Kendra off?
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: Let's go with that.
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I think when Williams is going to have
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: a career day, I just can't get on the JJ
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: McCarthy train. And while the Cowboys defense is still struggling,
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: you can't deny that they've been better since the trade deadline.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Dak if he had any competence in the first half
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: of the season, I think would be an MVP conversation.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: And with the Eagle slipping, that vision is still you know,
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: kind of kind of available.
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: So it doesn't really matter what I say.
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: I probably would have to go with this option either
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: way because I love the Chief so perfect. I feel
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: like when you guys, I'm like a little kid hiding
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: in my room and my parents are like arguing over
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: the kitchen island about bills, and I just sit here
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: and I sweats.
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: We agree on the bills.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: I met like bills money.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: We're arguing over the dollar bills. So in some sense, wait.
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: So mavin, who would you vote for? Given the choice?
• 53:35
  Speaker 6: Like I mean, in this situation, it's Minnesota just because
• 53:37
  Speaker 6: I said I said what I said about the Chargers
• 53:39
  Speaker 6: and Chiefs, like I just I'd rather be on the
• 53:41
  Speaker 6: sidelines than be in the field for that one. So Minnesota.
• 53:44
  Speaker 6: But I do think it'll get to six. So we're
• 53:48
  Speaker 6: just in an unfortunate situation having to do it now.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: I'm sweating.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: I don't like this, just justin Herbert twelve and six
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: as a road underdog, Jim Harball has yet to lose
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: eight t us against him, is.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: Really like it on the table.
• 54:04
  Speaker 6: R Chargers rushed for three hundred yards in this game,
• 54:07
  Speaker 6: one hundred behind Herbert. I just don't unless he gets
• 54:09
  Speaker 6: magically healed, he couldn't pass.
• 54:11
  Speaker 7: No Chargers receiver could catch a ball.
• 54:14
  Speaker 6: Like Gadsden isn't even being a consideration at the moment
• 54:17
  Speaker 6: when he was amazing for a bunch of weeks. Like
• 54:19
  Speaker 6: they feel like a mess from the passing game. And
• 54:21
  Speaker 6: I don't know if you can I just don't know
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: if I can buy it.
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: So I do agree that convins are gonna take money.
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: Probably it's gonna be a big public place Sunday night.
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: You might you probably see it. Six. We can buy that,
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: So we can. If you're out there you wanted to follow,
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: you can wait. But we can buy the Vikings at
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: six and a half, So go Vikings plus six and
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: a half. We have Bill's money line and Browns plus
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: seven and a half. Last week we hit it was
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: plus five seventy five. It's a little lower five plus
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: five fifteen at DraftKings.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: It is in there all right, Browns plus seven and
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: a half, Bill's money line, Vikings plus six and a
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: half at plus five fourteen on DraftKings.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks star producers
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Gifford Gold, David Payne, statsound Evan Abrams. The Favorites will
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: return on Sunday night, a week fifteen recap and we'll
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: see who won the battle. Catch it right here on
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks for hanging out. We'll
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: see you next time here on the Favorites podcast. We'll
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: be dreaming about you.
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 55:41
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