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Turning Point: From Inflation Worries to Bank Earnings · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , everyone !
• 0:02
  I am your host , Sunny Shareman , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:06
  It is 6 am on Sunday , April 12th , 2026 , here on the West Coast .
• 0:11
  I hope you are having a wonderful weekend and are ready for what looks like a very busy week ahead .
• 0:16
  We are at a turning point right now , moving from general economic worries to the nittygritty of corporate earnings .
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  Let's dive into what you need to know .
• 0:25
  This past week gave us a lot to think about .
• 0:29
  On April 10th , we saw the Consumer Price Index report show a headline inflation jump of 0.9 percent for March .
• 0:36
  That is the biggest monthly increase we have seen in four years .
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  The main culprit ?
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  Gas prices , which surged 21.2 percent because of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz .
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  However , there is a silver lining .
• 0:52
  Core inflation , which ignores food and energy , only rose 0.2 percent .
• 0:58
  That is actually better than analysts expected , which is why we saw the stock market rally a bit on Friday .
• 1:05
  But keep an eye on the Federal Reserve .
• 1:07
  Because of those high energy costs , markets are now pricing in a 78 percent chance that we will not see any interest rate cuts in 2026 .
• 1:17
  In fact , some officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack are even mentioning that rate hikes could be back on the table .
• 1:25
  This week , the spotlight shifts to the banks .
• 1:28
  Monday kicks off with Goldman Sachs , followed by a huge Tuesday featuring JPMorgan Chase , Wells Fargo , and Citigroup .
• 1:37
  Citigroup is particularly interesting right now ; analysts are looking for a 34 percent jump in earnings per share following their big reorganization .
• 1:46
  Generally , banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are benefiting from these higher interest rates because they can earn more on loans .
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  But we need to listen closely to their guidance .
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  If they start setting aside more money for bad loans , it could be a sign that they are worried about the economy slowing down .
• 2:06
  Over in the energy sector , companies like Exxon Mobil are staying near their highs because crude oil is sitting between 95 and 97 dollars a barrel .
• 2:17
  Keep an eye on the news today , as talks between the U.S.
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  and Iran could determine if oil moves toward that 100dollar mark .
• 2:26
  In tech , Nvidia , Microsoft , and Alphabet have announced a new partnership to use AI for cyber defense .
• 2:32
  This is helping keep the tech sector resilient even though the high yield on the 10year Treasury , currently at 4.32 percent , usually makes highgrowth stocks a bit more volatile .
• 2:43
  So , how should we position ourselves ?
• 2:45
  For a balanced approach , you might look at the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , known as VOO , or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF , IVV .
• 2:56
  These funds help you benefit from the strong financial and energy sectors while spreading out your risk .
• 3:02
  If you want a more direct play on the banks , the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLF , is a great choice .
• 3:11
  For those looking at a specific stock , Citigroup , ticker symbol C , could be a strong turnaround play if they beat expectations this Tuesday .
• 3:21
  To protect yourself against inflation and geopolitical risks , consider the SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , as gold has been holding near record highs .
• 3:31
  On the other hand , be cautious with the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , or TLT .
• 3:38
  If the Producer Price Index data coming out this Tuesday is higher than expected , those longterm bonds could see more selling .
• 3:47
  Finally , for the growth seekers , the Invesco QQQ Trust remains a core way to stay invested in the AI trend , with Nvidia leading that hardware charge .
• 3:57
  We are looking at a volatile but potentially bullish start to the week depending on how those international negotiations go .
• 4:04
  Midweek direction will really depend on what the big banks say about the consumer and their interest rate outlook for the rest of 2026 .
• 4:13
  Thanks for joining me this morning .
• 4:15
  I will be back in a few hours with more updates for your trading day .
• 4:19
  Stay smart and happy investing !