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Why The 12-Team College Football Playoff Could Be More Unpredictable Than You Think · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to buck Eyes tomorrow morning for Tuesday, August twenty seventh.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Tom Moore. The Akron game in four days,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: the gammickens Michigan in ninety five days. With the season
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: actually sort of already officially having started with week zero,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: we're a little late on this exercise, but it's what
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  Speaker 1: Tony Gerderman and I have been talking about for a
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: couple weeks now. Ralph Russo of the AP, the Great
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Ralph Russo, he's a Mets fan, so you know he
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: has great taste and everything. He put out a list
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: of the traditional way that you can figure out who
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: is going to make the college football playoff? How which
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: teams are going to make the college football playoff field.
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  Speaker 1: So he went back the previous ten years, looked at
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the preseason AP Top twenty five pole and then figured
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: out where are the teams that were where the teams
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: that made the College Football Playoff or would have made
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: the College Football Playoff and this new twelve team format
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: where they started the season in the AP pole and
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: normally go into a year figuring, oh, certainly it's going
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: to be nine out of ten top ten teams. Certainly
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at the very least maybe all ten. You would probably think, no,
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  Speaker 1: not even clothes. So we're going to be taking a
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: look at the historical information and trying to project which teams,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: based on this historical model, we think might make the
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  Speaker 1: college football Playoff this year. Let's welcome in Tony Gerdaman
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: of bucka huddle dot Com. Tony, let me tell you,
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  Speaker 1: I was very excited for this show, and then I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: sat down and tried to figure it out based in
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the model, and I ended up just kind of like
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: rubbing my temples, like how, no, no, there's no way
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  Speaker 1: this is how this works out. But based on the
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  Speaker 1: last ten years of history, this is how it would
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: have worked out.
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  Speaker 2: And who are we to question history? Yeah, going through
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  Speaker 2: this and being these confines, these constrictions leads you to
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  Speaker 2: some choices that you would never make otherwise, and also
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: just leaving programs out that you're like, well, I'm clearly
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: they're going to make it in, but I can only
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  Speaker 2: choose two teams in this grouping, so these other four
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: teams are also going to make it in, and it
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  Speaker 2: comes down to about twelve or eighteen different Sophie's choices.
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  Speaker 2: I think in some of these such circumstances.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to go through the different brackets. I'll
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  Speaker 1: read through just the five different groupings here and then
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  Speaker 1: we'll go through each one one by one and pick
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: make our picks. The first one is the four of
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the top five AP preseason top five teams will make it.
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  Speaker 1: So four of the top five AP preseason top tens,
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  Speaker 1: two of the teams ranked from number six to number ten,
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  Speaker 1: two of the teams ranked from number eleven and number
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  Speaker 1: twenty one from number twenty one to twenty five, and
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  Speaker 1: three teams that the start the season unranked would have
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  Speaker 1: made the College Football Playoff and an average the last
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: ten years if they had been using the twelve team format.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So all right, let's start with the top and this
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: is I think the easiest one. I don't feel frommendous
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  Speaker 1: about this, and I would probably not have left this
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  Speaker 1: team out if I was just doing my own bracket myself.
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  Speaker 1: But four of the preseason top five in the AP pole,
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  Speaker 1: four of the five would make make it based on
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  Speaker 1: the historical data. So those teams this year Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas,
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  Speaker 1: and Alabama, Tony, who are you leaving out from that group? Yeah?
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  Speaker 2: This was the easiest decision for me. Now I'm going
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  Speaker 2: to leave out Alabama, do I think they'll make it
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  Speaker 2: pretty good chance. But when it comes down to leaving
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  Speaker 2: one of those out, they are the ones that immediately
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  Speaker 2: jump out to me. Quickest decision in the sole decision
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  Speaker 2: making process for me, and I feel I feel as
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  Speaker 2: I feel more confident about this pick than any others
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  Speaker 2: the rest of the way out.
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  Speaker 1: I think that's actually as crazy as it sounds, probably true.
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  Speaker 1: It just it wasn't one that I necessarily would would
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  Speaker 1: have picked on my own, but just of these choices
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  Speaker 1: that felt like the easiest choice. The other four really
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  Speaker 1: are sort of almost universally projected to be the four
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  Speaker 1: semi finalists, which means they're probably going to be one
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  Speaker 1: and two and five and six in most people's brackets
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  Speaker 1: looking forward, So that would be Ohio State, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon,
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  Speaker 1: Texas in for both Tony and I Alabama on the
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  Speaker 1: outside looking in. Now on to number six through ten,
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  Speaker 1: and this is one where we get we get a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of a freeb here Tony because we got
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  Speaker 1: to pick two teams from number six to ten, Ole
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  Speaker 1: Miss Notre Dame, Penn State Michigan and Florida State, Tony.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to guess. I'm going to take a wild
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  Speaker 1: guess that Florida State is not one of the two
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  Speaker 1: teams that you picked based on I don't know, just
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  Speaker 1: an inkling an assumption of how the season might play out.
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  Speaker 1: But who were the two teams among those five that
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  Speaker 1: you chose to put in your field?
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  Speaker 2: Tom, First of all, your clairvoyance is Impeccable's on point,
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  Speaker 2: I did not have Florida State as one of my two.
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  Speaker 2: But in fairness to me and my impeccable foresighteds foresidedness,
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  Speaker 2: I wouldn't have had Florida State to begin with. I
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  Speaker 2: am going, and I don't. I don't feel great about
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  Speaker 2: this because Penn State may end up losing the season
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  Speaker 2: opener against West Virginia and having to claw back the
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  Speaker 2: rest of the way. But I'm going with ole Miss
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  Speaker 2: and Penn State with the understanding that Notre Dame is
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  Speaker 2: in a situation all by themselves. But also I think
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  Speaker 2: Ole Miss and Penn State are going to be in
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  Speaker 2: similar situations and that they won't be making a conference
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  Speaker 2: championship game, and so the scheduling I think will win
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  Speaker 2: out for those two teams over Notre Dame if they
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  Speaker 2: all have the same ten and two record, if you will.
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  Speaker 1: And I had Penn State in this exercise initially, and
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  Speaker 1: then I went through and I thought, there is no
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  Speaker 1: way on earth that there are only going to be
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  Speaker 1: three SEC teams in this field. There is no possible way.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll get to who the other SEC team is
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  Speaker 1: a little bit later, but I did go with Notre
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  Speaker 1: Dame and ole Miss. I thought, I really thought long
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  Speaker 1: and hard. I have Notre Dame in Penn State in
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  Speaker 1: there initially because I don't really totally believe in ole
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  Speaker 1: Miss this year. But you look at not you know,
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  Speaker 1: you look at Notre dames schedule this year. They have
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: a very manageable schedule. They open at Texas A and M.
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  Speaker 1: If they get through that one, it's Northern Illinois at Purdue,
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  Speaker 1: Miami of Ohio, Louisville at Home, Stanford at Georgia Tech,
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  Speaker 1: which might be a little spicier than you might have
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  Speaker 1: expected a week ago, Navy Florida State, which is substantially
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  Speaker 1: potentially less spicy than you might have expected it a
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  Speaker 1: week go Virginia Army and at USC and who knows
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  Speaker 1: what USC is there is not to me a oh boy,
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  Speaker 1: they're going to lose that game on that schedule, and
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  Speaker 1: you feel like, if Notre Dame is eleven and one,
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  Speaker 1: they're getting in regardless of how not great their wins are.
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  Speaker 1: And as they're ten and two, they still might get
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  Speaker 1: in as a ten seed eleven seed something like that.
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  Speaker 1: So I will go with Notre Dame and ole Miss.
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  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about ole Miss. I don't feel
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  Speaker 1: great about leaving Penn State out. But you look at
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  Speaker 1: it and it's just the other way around. I would
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  Speaker 1: have had four Big ten teams in, or potentially five
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  Speaker 1: Big ten teams in and only three SEC teams, and
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: you know, you get into some crazy scenarios here, Tony.
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  Speaker 1: I just I can't see one where the Big ten
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  Speaker 1: gets five in and the SEC gets three, and that
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  Speaker 1: just doesn't seem realistic.
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  Speaker 2: No, it's not. And just tells me, Tom that you
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: have no faith in Kentucky later.
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  Speaker 1: On, not a tremendous amount of faith. No, but hey,
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  Speaker 1: no worries. Basketball season is coming soon, so there will
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: be reason to smile in the Bluegrass State eventually, all right.
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  Speaker 1: Next next one is two teams out of the groups
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  Speaker 1: from the AP eleven through twenty. This is when I
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  Speaker 1: will remind you the champions of all the powerful conference
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  Speaker 1: is are going to get an autobid here. So this
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  Speaker 1: is where we get into teams like Missouri, Utah, LSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Oklahoma,
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Miami, and Texas A and M.
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  Speaker 1: That's one, two, three, four, five SEC teams in here.
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  Speaker 1: And if you're also pulling in the potential conference champions
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  Speaker 1: from the ACC and the Big twelve, that doesn't leave
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  Speaker 1: you a whole heck of a lot of room for
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  Speaker 1: the other SEC teams here. So who did you have
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  Speaker 1: from this group?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it feels like one of those five have to
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  Speaker 2: make it. So I'm going to go with Missouri. We've
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  Speaker 2: seen them in person. They don't have the exact same
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  Speaker 2: team that they had back, but they seem to have
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  Speaker 2: some good momentum, So I'm going to buy that hype
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  Speaker 2: a little bit right now. And then I also had
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  Speaker 2: the other team that I'm buying more hype than anybody else,
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  Speaker 2: and that's the Clemson to come out of the ACC.
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  Speaker 1: There.
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  Speaker 2: They have a lot of talent, but I don't know
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  Speaker 2: if they have enough explosive talent, but also how much
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  Speaker 2: explosive talent do they need in the ACC I think
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  Speaker 2: that's something else to consider. So I have Missouri and
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  Speaker 2: Clemson and leaving some pretty decent teams out, Like can
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  Speaker 2: you see Tennessee making a move? We saw it under
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  Speaker 2: Hendon Hooker, where maybe that's who they actually are, and
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  Speaker 2: what they had under Joe Milton was just this is
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  Speaker 2: who they had to be. So I'm interested to see
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  Speaker 2: how they do this year. Oklahoma. People know about it,
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  Speaker 2: and there are those possibilities, but also this is where
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: we start talking about the Big twelve time, which maybe
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  Speaker 2: where you're headed.
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  Speaker 1: It is where I'm headed before we get into it. Man, Missouri,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know how good Missouri is going to be
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  Speaker 1: this year, but just prepare yourself to hear about how
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  Speaker 1: they had to play a murderous sec schedule. Tony. Let
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  Speaker 1: me just read that murderous se schedule to you right now.
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  Speaker 1: Home for Murray State, home for Buffalo, home for Boston College,
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  Speaker 1: home for Vanderbilt. Congratulations, you're in October. Your best team
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  Speaker 1: you've played is maybe a first year Bill O'Brien Boston
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  Speaker 1: College team at home Saturday, October fifth, at Texas A
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and M, then Tony at UMass. They could be the
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  Speaker 1: Massachusetts state champions this year if they play their cards right.
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  Speaker 1: Albert at home at Alabama, week off home for Oklahoma,
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  Speaker 1: at South Carolina at Mississippi State, and home for Arkansas.
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  Speaker 1: That is about as mid major a schedule as you
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  Speaker 1: can possibly have in the SEC.
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  Speaker 2: Don't they have to be at least nine and three
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  Speaker 2: with past schedule.
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  Speaker 1: I think U mass might be nine and three with
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  Speaker 1: that schedule. So yeah, I think. I look at that
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  Speaker 1: and I think if they don't go ten and two,
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  Speaker 1: I think something has gone horrendously wrong. And if they
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: do go ten and two, it feels like they almost
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: have to be you know, sorry, not that they have
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: to be in, but that they almost certainly will be in.
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  Speaker 1: Not that they have to be in, that they will
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  Speaker 1: be put in. Just want to clarify that before I
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  Speaker 1: say that incorrectly. My two out of this group, I
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: feel like Utah. I really, you know, I really like Utah.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I think Utah's probably your Big twelve Conference champion this year.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I just I have a tremendous amount of respect for
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Kyle Weddingham. You've got I think he's seventh year quarterback
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Cam Rising. You've got a lot of pieces there. That's
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  Speaker 1: just a program that I think is going to do
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: very well in the Big Twelve this year. So I've
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: got them and Tony. Someone has to win the ACC
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  Speaker 1: and I think we have a pretty good sense now
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  Speaker 1: it's not going to be Florida State, and we have
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a pretty good sense it's not going to be about
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: nine other teams. I can't believe I'm about to say
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  Speaker 1: these words out loud. Tony. Yes, Tony is making the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: U with his hands. Yes I am. I am deferring
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: to great friend of the per Brett Sciancia of Pick
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: six Previews, who had the Miami Hurricanes in the College
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Football Playoff. Someone has to win the ACC and whoever
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: that is is going to be in the College Football Playoff.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going with Miami. It could just as easily be Clemson.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's you're just kind of picking one
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  Speaker 1: of those two. I don't really believe in either one,
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  Speaker 1: and frankly, I think it's quite possible that whichever one
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  Speaker 1: of those is in is going to be nine to
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: three and about a seventeen point underdog in the quarterfinals
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: against Tech against Texas or Oregon or whoever they're playing.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll go with Utah and Miami out of
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that group. I do feel, as you were saying, maybe
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: you're going to take a team from a lower take
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: one of the conference champions from a lower group, because
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: one of those SEC teams is going to make it.
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  Speaker 1: One of those SEC C teams is absolutely going to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: make it. Just to be clear, Tony was probably a
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: little more strategic about this than I was. But we
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: are where we are, Miami in the college football playoff.
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  Speaker 1: Words that just came out of my mouth. I cannot
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  Speaker 1: believe it. Maybe the most unexpected and shocking thing to
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: happen yet in twenty twenty four college football. Next up, Tony,
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  Speaker 1: we got to pick one out of the group from
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: twenty one to twenty five, Arizona, Kansas, USC, North Carolina State,
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  Speaker 1: and Iowa. Who you got?
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Well? First off, ton we don't call you Hurricane Tom
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: for nothing, But I do think it should probably come
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: down to Miami and Clemson in the ACC Championship game.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: And you know how Miami fans travel, so that's going
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: to be a rockous environment. In terms of the twenty
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: one through twenty five. Of course, I'll be rooting for Arizona.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: I think people are underappreciating USC right now. I think
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: they might be overlooking them and just ignoring them completely.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: North Carolina State is sneaky with Grayson mccallot quarterback. There,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: they play well. I've seen Iowa as a popular pick
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: of late because maybe they can score twenty four points
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: a game. And if they can, then who knows. So
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: I just have written down USC slash Iowa, slash Kansas,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: and if you can tell me if Kansas quarterback stays healthy,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: then I would like Kansas in this one. But you
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: can't tell me that. I still might go with Kansas
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: to be frank, but I'm going to go ahead and
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: I'm going to do something that nobody else is doing,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: which means it's smart.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: USC. USC is a fascinating pick because what are they
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: going to be this year? They're in a much harder conference,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: but they have a new defensive coordinator, and boy, the
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: defense was clearly the issue the last couple of years.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: But they don't have their Heisman winning quarterback from last year.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: The number one overall draft pick quarterback from last year.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: He is now buying his trade with the Chicago Bears. Yeah, boy,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I I don't think it's going to be usc This
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: is one where I went with Iowa here and there
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: are two reasons, and number one is Iowa has a
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: shocking number of players back from last year's team. I
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: think it was something like eighteen starters back from last
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: year's team. They've got virtually everyone back. They also have
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: they come to Ohio State. Outside of the trip to
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, their schedule is extremely manageable. Illinois State, Iowa
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: State at home, Troy at home at Minnesota week off,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Then they come to Columbus. If they just keep that
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: game close, that will probably be treated almost like a win,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: if they just can keep that within a couple touchdowns.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Then Washington at home at Michigan State, Northwestern at home,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin at home at UCLA at Maryland home for Nebraska.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: That all feels pretty manageable. I mean, you tell you,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: do you see more than two losses on that schedule.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: It feels like Ohio State and something else somewhere. But
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: you know, one of a couple. They don't have to
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: be great on offense, they just have to be competent,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and it feels like they could be competent on offense,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: and if they're ten and two, I like their chances
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: about as much as anyone else.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Well, time, let me tell you this what you have done.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: You've you just glossed over Iowa State. What happens when
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: you just gloss over Iowa State and that game is
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: in Iowa City, Like it's a home game, everybody's just
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: chalking it up to a win for the Hawkeys. I
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: don't care how good or bad Iowa State is. It
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: doesn't always matter when it comes to Iowa. But Iowa
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: does usually win that game at Minnesota. Like, it's not
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: gonna take a lot of points to beat Iowa, but
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: it takes a lot to get those points against Iowa.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: And so you might need a turnover, which I don't
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: know that Iowa Cade McNamara will be totally opposed to doing,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: assuming he ends up winning the job. But the schedule
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: is very, very very manageable. What is the toughest road
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: game outside of Ohio State? Is it Minnesota? I mean
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: it's at Minnesota, at Michigan State, at UCLA at Maryland, Like,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: these are all games that they're going to be favored in.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: So like, what are they favored in eleven games?
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: They very well might be favored in eleven games, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily expect Can I change my answer? Yeah? Well,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: and here's the thing I don't. I'm talking through this
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: and we're going to get to the three non non
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: ranked teams, and I already don't like my answer there.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: But you know, you look at the you look at
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: the history of the Iowa Iowa State Series. I pulled
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: this up as you were talking. First of all, if
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: you want the history of the Iowa Iowa State Series
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: and the magic that it holds, Iowa State in twenty
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: eleven and twenty twelve one in back to back years
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: forty four to forty one in triple overtime and nine
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: to six. That is the Syhawks series in a nutshell.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Since then, Iowa won twenty seven twenty one in twenty thirteen,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Iowa won Iowa State one twenty to seventeen in twenty fourteen,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: and then Iowa has won all but once since twenty fourteen.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: The only Iowa State win over that span came in
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two when Iowa State one ten to seven
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: in Iowa City. Boy, there's a lot of you go
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: through this. There's another classic back to back forty four,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: forty one Iowa and overtime in twenty seventeen, thirteen to
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: three Iowa in twenty eighteen, eighteen to seventeen in Iowa City,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Aaron Ames in twenty nineteen. It is not always great football.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: It is rarely great football. There was a series. There
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: was a game Tony where Iowa won seventeen to five
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight. My personal favorite because I
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: was there for this one Iowa State fifteen Iowa thirteen
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: in Ames in two thousand and seven. I mean, it
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: is just a series filled with numbers, weird numbers, weird football,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: but Iowa always seems to win. It's like Oklahoma Oklahoma State,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: where it's a rivalry and it's crazy and it's weird,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: and then one team wins. Basically every year Iowa Iowas
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: take kind of the same way. I don't love it.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: This is definitely the portion of the program where I
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: don't love any of these, but I think Iowa's got
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a decent chance to make it. Now. Finally, the three
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: unranked teams. I'll just read through the teams that are
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: others receiving votes, But of course you can pick anyone
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: you want. You want to pick a Louisiana Monroe by
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: all means you do that, Louisville, Virginia, Tech, Boise State, SMU,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, Liberty, Washington, West Virginia, Memphis, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UTSA, Tulane, Appstate, Kentucky, Auburn,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: and Colorado. One of these is going to for sure
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: be the group of five representative. Group of five is
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: guaranteed one spot in the twelve team playoff. So who
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: do you have for that one? And then who do
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: you have for the other two that are definitely not
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: going to happen because mine a definitely not going to happen.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Because the math is not working well for me. It's like,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: technically these things are impossible. I don't know how they're impossible,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: but they've gotten away because I already have four big
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: ten teams in and because I officially did change my
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: pick from USC to Iowa, everybody caught that, so of
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: my own thinking, my own free will. But I've got
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Owhio State, Oregon, penn State in Iowa, and my initial
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: as I wrote all these down, I have Wisconsin as
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: one of them as well, because I'm look, if it's
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: between Louisville Virginia, Tech, Iowa State, and Wisconsin. I mean,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I'm going to choose the known quantity and also how
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: many teams are these other conferences getting in? And I
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: still have my Big twelve champion out there, So I'll
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: go with Garrett Green in West Virginia because I got
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: to know I've got to pick a Big twelve team
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: at some point, so I'll go with them, And Boise
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: State is my Group of five champion that I'm going
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: to ride with Liberty. If they go and defeated, I
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: don't even think they should be in because they play
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: absolutely nobody. Everybody else plays somebody, Memphis plays somebody. Boise
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: State plays at Oregon for crying out loud, so at
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: least they're trying. Liberty could go twelve to no. If
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: any of these other schools go eleven and one or
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: twelve and one with the conference championship, they should get
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: in over a thirteen to oh Liberty and then my
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: third one. Well, so I've got Boise West Virginia. Tom
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: I'm looking through here because I can't go five Big
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: ten teams, right, that's just too many. And yet what's
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: more ludicrous five big ten teams or to acc or
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Big twelve teams, and I don't think I'll go Virginia Tech. Tom,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: I talked myself into it. I've got to go with somebody.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I'll go with an exciting quarterback there at Virginia Tech.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: And I do not care for or any of this.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one where I started the exercise. I'm like,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: this will be fun, and I got about three minutes
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: in and said I was. Turns out, in retrospect, I
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: was incorrect about that. I don't like any of this.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: I do like your strategy of taking one of the
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: earlier SEC teams and just taking someone at the bottom
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: for one of the non Big ten slash SEC conferences,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: because there are the Big twelve. Might very well just
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: be a throw a bunch of names in a hat
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: and pick one out and any of about six answers
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: might be correct. The acc feels like you've got about
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: two or three names to throw in that hat, but
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: one of them is going to be correct, So all right,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I have stalled long enough. My three unranked teams, Boise State,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. There feels like they're gonna get essentially
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: a freebie against Oregon if they lose that game by
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: thirty points. No one's gonna hold that against them. And
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: if they lose that game by less than thirty points,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: that will be considered a win. And if they somehow
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: managed to win that game, well, I might have missed
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: a team in my top five, but either way, so
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Boise State. It's going to be
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: the SEC has to get another team in Tony, that's
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: just the rules. And because I didn't play it smart
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: like you did earlier, I have to put my faith
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: in Hugh Freeze and Auburn. How am I feeling about that?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Not great, not tremendous, not great at all. But there's
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be some other SEC team in the field. They're
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: not going to have three SEC teams in this year.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: So and finally, Tony, speaking of things, I don't feel
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: great about your Nebraska Cornhuskers. They're another team. This is
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: one where they play Iowa in the season finale, so
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: probably something weird would need to happen for both of
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: them to make the College Football Playoff. But also they
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: feel like they're gonna be in that conversation potentially, Let's
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: play the schedule game again home for UTEP, home for Colorado,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: home for Northern Iowa, home for Illinois at Purdue, home
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: for Rutgers, bye week at Indiana. Tony, they could be
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: coming into Ohio Stadium on October twenty sixth unbeaten, like
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: very easily could be coming into Ohio Stadium on October
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: twenty sixth unbeaten. After that, Ucla at home, a week off,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: they go to usc they get Wisconsin at home, They're
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: at Iowa, and then that's the end of the regular season.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: You can't tell me they're gonna definitely finish worse than
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: ten and two with that schedule. I know this is
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: waiting for the great Pumpkin to come. Every year that
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: you know, Oh, certainly, Tony, Certainly their luck in one
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: score games must change at some point, right, Certainly this
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: will be the year, he said in twenty twenty one,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, and now twenty twenty four.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: But certainly, Tony, at some point I must be right. Right.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: I love the fact that you've come around on Nebraska
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: as I've gone further and further away from them, because
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: I'm the person that earlier in the summer, when I
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: did my first run through of all of the big
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: ten predictions came out with Nebraska going ten to two,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: winning that last game at Iowa if losses just to
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: Ohio State and at USC. So it's good. It's good
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: to have you board. I'm sorry I couldn't wait for you.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: I had to move on and jump on.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Iowa.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: But also, as we always talk about, UH, a true
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: freshman quarterback will lose you a game that you shouldn't lose.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: So that's what Nebraska has now with Dylan Roola. So
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: maybe that's a game at USC or something like that
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: where you're leading, But it wouldn't be crazy if a
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Nebraska quarterback makes some bad decisions down down late in
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: the game to cost them a game. Boy, we've never
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: seen that.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Before, not a one, No no close losses, there, no
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: no late fatal mistakes ever. I mean, Tony, what are
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: the odds that happens for the what eighth straight season?
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Certainly at some point, certainly, at some point, this has
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: to this trend has to end. The trend has definitely
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: not been their friend. Maybe maybe that will change this year,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: maybe not. I really cannot stress how much I hated
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: this exercise after starting, after going all the way through it,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: But here we are. It is good. It is I guess,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: at least, a very good reminder that no matter how
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: sure you are about how this college football season is
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: going to play out, it is probably not going to
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: play out exactly that way. If you don't believe me,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: just go back a week and read all of the
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: people talking about how Florida State's defensive line might be
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: the very best in this entire United States of America.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Survey says, oh, well, so now Florida State ohen to one.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Pretty much the restignation O and O is. We're going
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: to head into Week one this weekend. Buck Guy's hosting
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: AKRON Saturday, three thirty pm on CBS. Donny and I
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: will be there along with Kevin, covering that covering the
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: whole rest of the season at buckeheddle dot com. It's
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be lots of content this week, starting on Tuesday
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: at the Ryan Day press conference. Coming around noon, be
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: talking to Ryan Day, Jim Knowles, Will Howard. They're gonna
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: be talking Wednesday evening with a bunch of high state
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: players and pregame coverage, postgame coverage on Saturday as the
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Buckeyes finally kicking off that twenty twenty four football season.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: We hope to see at YouTube dot com slash bucke
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Huddle for all of those things. It's going to be
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of the schedule stuff is a little unpredictable
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: in terms of midweek interviews and when the pregame show,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: when the postgame show is all going to start. Make
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: sure you are subscribed there at YouTube dot com slash
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: bucke Huddle. Hit that bell so you get notified when
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: we go live, and make sure you're subscribed at bucke
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Huddle dot com as well. That's where Tony, Kevin and
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I cover the team. Mark Ruff is recruiting at our
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: whole team of ex's nose. Guruz there to make you
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: a smarter football fan. All at Buckeye Huddle dot com.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: We hope to see you there. That'll do it for today.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys all for joining us. Have a great day.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: We will talk to you tomorrow.