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The Collapse of SMCI: A Historic Cautionary Tale · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:01
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• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Let's talk about SMCI debacle super Micro. It's a historic
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: collapse and a cautionary tale. So it peaked out one
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: hundred and twenty two dollars. It's down to twenty six
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  Speaker 4: dollars right now.
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  Speaker 2: And it's split, and it's split, so it was obviously higher.
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  Speaker 4: Talks of being delisted, and this is like speaks to
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: a lot of people fear of the overhype.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Of artificial intelligence. So what can we learn from SMCI.
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: It's a lesson that I've repeat it forever. Please write
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: this down. There is no feeling the blank killer. So
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: I know both you anybody who was a Brady killer,
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: Peyton Mann and killer Jordan killer, it never happened.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: Well are you who are you saying that they were
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: going to kill?
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  Speaker 5: If you say that, n video and a lot of times,
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  Speaker 5: and we've seen this in the constant space in the
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  Speaker 5: last four or five years. When you try and recreate
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  Speaker 5: a other people's intellectual property. You may not know and
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: I probably shouldn't say this, but it makes the originator
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: of the intellectual property more valuable. So I know it's
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: been a lot of spin offs of even us. It's
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  Speaker 5: made to show more valuable.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 5: So when people are looking at a sector and saying, hey,
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: what can I do? I missed out in Vidia, let
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: me get the third best thing. The best thing is
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: to listen for the best price to get in on
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: the market leader. Once again, we are investing in companies
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: that are going to move the GDP of America. If
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: I ask a simple question, if I was running for
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  Speaker 5: president and if my initiative was to bring greatness back
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: to America through tech, is in Vidia probably the number
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  Speaker 5: one company that's going to do that over the next
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: three or four years.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, And no, most of us will say yes. Right,
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  Speaker 1: So to.
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  Speaker 5: Actually bet against Nvidia and buy into SMCI is technically
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: a short against America.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Give it. Can I give a little push back?
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  Speaker 1: Sure, we're friends.
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  Speaker 2: Because it's an interesting case.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: Yes, debacle, but we got to look at the reason
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: why it is falling. Yes, and it's because of the reporting, right,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Like they've had issues with they're reporting a ten K.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: They can't find it, which is the form to report.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: They can't they can't find it. They hired Ernest Young
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: as an independent orditor. Young they said, we're not even
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: doing this, we're leaving stop pulls again.
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  Speaker 2: So are the numbers real? We don't know. I don't
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  Speaker 2: know if they're a competitor to.
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  Speaker 3: In video because they partnered within video and.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Do a lot of ops.
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  Speaker 3: Partner Well, this is true, but we got to we
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  Speaker 3: have to know what they actually do.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 3: So from a technical standpoint, and video makes the GPUs,
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  Speaker 3: we've gone over that. Yes, super Semi helps accelerate the
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  Speaker 3: speed of that GPU by creating the infrastructure for it.
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  Speaker 3: So imagine like the casing for this chip. That's what
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  Speaker 3: they do is they'd a supplier of it. So it
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  Speaker 3: begs the question, right, the numbers, we don't know. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: they said that they were going to report November fourth
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: of twenty twenty five. They meant November fifth, tomorrow, So
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  Speaker 3: they're gonna we're gonna actually see what the numbers. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: if they don't report, they risk being delisted because of
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  Speaker 3: the way the stock is falling. They've been delisted before.
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  Speaker 3: This is not something new, which is not good news. Yeah, right,
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  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen they were delisted. They came back, obviously with
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  Speaker 3: the surge of AI, the partnership with the video. The
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  Speaker 3: question and this is why a little pushback is like, yes,
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  Speaker 3: we were not sure about the numbers, but are we
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  Speaker 3: sure about their clients?
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  Speaker 2: And VideA is the number one client? Yeah, Microsoft is
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  Speaker 2: a client, Yes, AMD is a client.
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  Speaker 1: But for how much? Yes?
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  Speaker 2: They all are?
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  Speaker 1: They agree?
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  Speaker 2: Right? And so if they're ordering at that rate?
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  Speaker 1: Right?
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  Speaker 3: And in video Blackwell still hasn't come out, right, Well,
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  Speaker 3: it hasn't released, and it's already talked about it's being
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  Speaker 3: sold out. If the clients are real, I'm be I
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  Speaker 3: want to see what the numbers are, right, we want
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  Speaker 3: to see what the numbers are. But the client base
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  Speaker 3: is still really well, it leaves that gap open if
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: companies are starting to leave and seeking. Alphab has already
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  Speaker 3: reported that in videos had left no comment, but there
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: are some talks that they're going to start looking for
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  Speaker 3: other people to help with the infrastructure and open the
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  Speaker 3: door for us.
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  Speaker 1: The kind way of saying, I'm gonna kick you off
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  Speaker 1: for those of you don't know, so.
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  Speaker 2: Then who's the next person?
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  Speaker 5: Yes, and that's the real cold Now to your point,
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  Speaker 5: great pushback, But when the investor class was looking for gains,
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: and this is why I say, you still have to
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: do your research and not just blindly chase gains. So
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: one day we're gonna have a whole conversation about what
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: happened to y'all love for NFTs not.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: We got to get through the election first.
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: But when people missed out on the gains of in Vidio,
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: it was a lot of talk at the top of
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: the year of why didn't you call SMCI. Now, let's
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: be clear, they're not the only company in America who's
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: cooking the books.
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  Speaker 1: They just got caught. But if the clients.
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  Speaker 5: Structed allegedly allegedly, thank you for protecting me, that's gotcha
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  Speaker 5: got But if you're not reporting properly can those partners
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  Speaker 5: still remain by your side through the reporting? And I
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  Speaker 5: ask everyone, Okay, if SMCI is going up as fast
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  Speaker 5: of a rate as in Video, who's the CTO, who's
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  Speaker 5: the CFO, who's the CEO? No one could answer that.
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  Speaker 5: What's the profit margin? Most people couldn't answer it. So
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  Speaker 5: if I lie to you, yeah, at some at a
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  Speaker 5: certain point, given the tightness of the economy that they'll
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: probably announced after the election, I don't think any of
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  Speaker 5: these companies can afford to have a partner that will
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  Speaker 5: make such an egregious act in terms of their reporting.
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  Speaker 3: So this is and this is what I think will happen,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: And this is why I think it's super interesting to
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  Speaker 3: see obviously the elections tomorrow, but I want to see
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: what happened with super Fancro. I think the CFO will
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: be fired. I think that will happen. For this level
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  Speaker 3: of agreegiance, I think that will happen. They've already named
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  Speaker 3: the new board, they've already said the CEO is going.
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  Speaker 1: To take over.
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  Speaker 3: But if it is the primary client, if in videos
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  Speaker 3: is primary client, and we're still seeing growth inside of
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  Speaker 3: the Nvidia and we already are expecting it and you
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  Speaker 3: can see the price sockers are getting raised. I know
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  Speaker 3: they report on the fourteen price raised until I hear
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  Speaker 3: that they have replaced them. I'm interested to see what
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  Speaker 3: those actual because they at some point they'll have to report,
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  Speaker 3: and they said tomorrow. I want to see what those
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: numbers look like from an order standpoint, from a deal
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  Speaker 3: flow standpoint, when it comes to predominantly in Vidia and
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: if not, if not, the inverse, I think is now
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  Speaker 3: my target and you can put this in your watch list.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: My target now is Dell. I think Dell, which is
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  Speaker 3: another infrastructure company. If we look at super Micro.
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  Speaker 5: Has had a great relationship with the White House for
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  Speaker 5: a number of years. Yep, I think that is the
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  Speaker 5: new target.
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  Speaker 3: If we hear that they are no longer partnering with
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  Speaker 3: sumerset super Micro, I think in Vidia and del I
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  Speaker 3: will watch that closely.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question.
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  Speaker 5: If I told you guys for three years that I
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: made sixteen million dollars a month and it came out
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: to that I just made two Even though two million
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: is a lot, the fact that I lied about making
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: sixteen a month will probably get me uninvited from some dinners.
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  Speaker 2: Right. It's the trust factor.
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: So if if you're in the hottest space on Earth,
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: why would you split the stock at your apex and
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: then you lost the tenth.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: But is it indicative of the space.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: No, it's indicative of them.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Okay, because but that's for both sides.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: You're saying that either win or laws, that that is
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: the stand that should be going for.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Well, let's do let's do this.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: Let's let's talk about some finance stuff. But I also
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: I want to I want to ask questions. Get you
• 9:45
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