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Brewers/Blue Jays MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets Saturday 8/30/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends slump that
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat. Man, I don't
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eight?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: March ninth? I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The slump,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump, discontin news, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's sewed back with you yet again right away? Basically
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: better off dead. Saturday morning, August thirtieth, If you're looking
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: for college football, you can check out the College Football Show.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I do those as separate shows for college football and NFL.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: The Week one video I did late last night. That
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: is up on the channel. It's on the audio platforms
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: as well. You can go check that out. Thank you
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: guys for hanging out late night, degenerate hours there. If
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: you want my college football plays, they are Texas plus three.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Although Texas that line has definitely gone now, I still
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: like them to win the game, so I guess do
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: with that information what you will. South Dakota going FCS
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: against FBS plus sixteen. Hopefully your books have a number
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: on that game, because I like that play. Clemson minus
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the three and a half, although I think you have
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to lay four now. I know these Week one lines
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: are moving man, and then tomorrow night Miami Floria a
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: plus three, which I'll talk about that again tomorrow probably,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: But this show is gonna be mostly baseball. I'm gonna
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: have four baseball plays today, so we have a loaded card. Man.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: This is what happens with football. With baseball overlapping, I
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: could have upwards of, you know, even ten plays in
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: a given day, depending on what's going on. Today is
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be I believe seven maybe Curtis, what's up man?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Yesterday did not go well. It
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: was one and two and it really should have been
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: two and one. Is that Blue Jays Brewers under is
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: gonna irritate me for a long time again. That game
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: was zero zero into the sixth inning and it did
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: not go under as the bullpen's imploded, mostly Toronto's bullpen,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I believe, imploded. Gave up five runs I believe in
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: the top of the six or yeah, top of the six,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think, and then it was just downhill from there.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So that wound up not going under and the first
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: five inning under was an easy winner. So that made
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: it even more irritating because the starting pitching matchup I
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: got completely correct. We lost badly on the under in
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Miami and Mets. Tong actually pitched well for the Mets.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: All but one of the runs he allowed were unearned,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: so the bad fielding behind Tong there, He's gonna throw
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: himself out though. If you watch that guy pitch, he
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: looks exactly like Tim Linsicomb and he's as small ast him.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: It's insane. He has his leg like up in the
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: air on his followed through and he he's gonna wreck
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: his back, dude, like linsicum The reason why his career
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: is so short is because his wind up was way
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: too volatile. It's gonna happen to him too. That game.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Uri Peraz has just ended our game right away. He
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: didn't even make it out of the first inning. Just
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: absolutely shocking. And then we did get the underwright in
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: the Skeens totally game. Unfortunately, the Red Sox wound up
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: on the wrong side of it, mostly because the bullpen
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: didn't hold it after totally did his job and got
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: them into the sixth inning. In his major league debut,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: he pitched well. Red Sox did have a two to
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: nothing lead early in that game against Paul Skeens. Roman
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Anthony actually homered off of him, but Red Sox wound
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: up losing that game, so I'm not happy about that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: But we'll get into today's card. We do have WNBA,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: of course, which I do have one maybe slight lean here,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: but I'm not totally interested in these games either. I know,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I apologize to what was his name, Alex that came
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: in yesterday and wanted more WNBA. I gotta see a
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: spot that I really like in the WNBA, man, especially
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: since a sport I don't really pay that much attention to.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I know I've been winning in it. But WNBA, we
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: have the best team in the league against the worst
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: team in the league. That's a great game. Minnesota against Connecticut.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Connecticut actually doesn't have the worst record anymore. Chicago does,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: at least in the East. Connecticut just beat Dallas. Dallas
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: actually might have a worse record than Connecticut too, But
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Connecticut's re turning over from a road trip, man, you know,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I talk about returning home from road trips kind of
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: a distraction. You have to get back to family life.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe you won't be totally just distracted when you're facing Minnesota,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: who are the best team in the league. Minnesota, they
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: just lost to Seattle at home, so they might be
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: feeling a little bit angry. They might want to get
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: a win bounced back from that. I mean, they're padding
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: in the West is starting to slip a little bit.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: They got to make sure they hang on to that
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: one seed there. So maybe it would be a spot
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: where Minnesota would actually potentially show up, but it is
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: still against such a bad team. You have to lay
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: so many points in Minnesota. They're down from fourteen to
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. I don't even know which way
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I would lean in that game. Man, It's just it's
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: a mess. Washington at Golden State. Golden State returning home
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: from a quick road trip where they just only went
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: to Phoenix in Dallas playing Washington. Golden State has more
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: motivation here though, because they're above five hundreds, they still
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: have a shot at the playoffs. Washington basically has played
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: themselves out of the playoffs with five straight losses, so
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: they're pretty much done at this point. They have to
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: go from New York across country to Golden State now too,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: so I think it's probably a more motivational spot for
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Golden State, but they're down from six to five. They
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: would probably be my lean, just because I think Washington
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is out of it, but I don't love either side
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: there either. Probably the strongest lean that I have would
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: be to grab the points with Chicago, And I know
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Chicago was my last play that I gave out in
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the WNBA and it was a win as a huge underdog.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: They might do it here because Seattle they're in a
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: bad spot. Dude. They're returning home from a five game
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: road trip, and they finished the road trip. It was
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: only a one loss road trip. They finished it by
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: beating Minnesota. Huge win on the road against the team
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA. Now the returning home, which could be
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: a distraction spot. Chicago absolutely not really a team that's
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: absolutely not a team that's gonna draw your focus. And
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have LA up next. Even though LA is
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: kind of out of LA is still close behind them,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So Seattle might actually show up more in that LA
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: game than this Chicago game here. That is possible, So
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: it's definitely a bad spot for them. The problem I
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: have with this is that Chicago is also in a
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: bad spot. They just had a really close game as
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: a road underdog against Phoenix and now they're gonna have
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: to do that again. I don't know if I trust them, man,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: And actually the game before that against Vegas they did
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that too. So they played two close games already against
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: big against good teams, Like, are they gonna be able
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: to do that three games in a row? I worry
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: about that a little bit. So even though I lean
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: to Chicago, I think I just can't really give it
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: out as a play man, just because you're asking a
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: bad Chicago team to put up that kind of effort
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: three straight games. Seattle down from twelve to eleven. Seattle
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: does at least need to keep winning to make sure
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: that they make the playoffs, so they don't need to
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: win by margin, obviously, So Lean to Chicago probably the
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: best lean that we have here. And then Phoenix against
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: New York is probably the only it's the only good
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: game good by WNBA standards. Phoenix has won five of
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the last six games. They just had that close game
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: against Chicago. Maybe they were looking ahead to this New
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: York game. It's a much bigger game, obviously, So they
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: just scraped by Chicago easy, pretty much an easy game
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: for them, although they probably thought it was going to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: be easier. But after a game like that, usually a
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: team shows up more focus if they almost lose to
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a really bad team. The Liberty are starting a road trip.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I think they should be focused to I mean, they're
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: still locked in a battle here to try to advance
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: their seeding, So I think both teams should show up here,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: even if it is maybe a slightly better spot for Phoenix.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I would have a slight lean to Phoenix up from
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: one and a half to two. So the money is
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: coming in on that side. So I do agree with
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: the money move ons Chicago and Phoenix, but I'm not
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: gonna give out a play on either of those. Cubert Rick,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: whatever your name is, What's up? What's up? Everybody? All right,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: let's go to MLB here. The thing that I know
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: more about. I'm gonna skip Milwaukee Toronto. As you can
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: see in the title, I gotta play on that game.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Tampa at Washington. Washington lost again yesterday. Washington has lost
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: five games in a row. No, six games in a row.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: My stroke brain puts me off by one again. Yes,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: it is ridiculous. You can make money on it though.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: It's just you got to pick your spots, and I
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: haven't seen one that I love for a while now. Washington,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: they were in a return home spot. Yesterday, so I
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: said it was a bad spot, and maybe that's part
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: of the reason why they lost that game is because
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: they were returning home from a road trip. They're not
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: the better team. I mean, Washington is a terrible team.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is at least decent, and they're in a
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: really difficult division. Washington has one of the worst bullpens
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: in baseball. They use four relievers yesterday, not huge usage
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: from a couple of them, though Tampa actually used four
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: and use them more. But I still probably give the
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge to Tampa even though their bullpen rest is less,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: because their bullpen is just that much better than Washington's.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Tampa has the better offense as well, and Washington just sucks, dude.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Tampa has the better starting pitcher as well, with Ryan Pepio,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: who's got a three point eight two ERA one point
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: one six whip. He is worse on the road, though
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: four point five ERA on the road. Weird that he
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: actually pitches really well in Steinbrenner Field at home, which
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly ballpark. Pepio has been pretty good
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: this month three point nine seven ERA twenty one to
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: seven strike out walk ratio. He's coming off a five inning,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: one hit shutout against Saint Louis, although they took him
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: out after sixty three pitches, so he made be on
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a pitch count right now, as
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: we come towards the end of the season and there's
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: nothing really for Tampa to play for here, these teams
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: don't really have anything to play for Washington, they have
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: almost no experience against Pepio. Believe it or not, only
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Bell has ever seen him before, and he's three for
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: thirteen off him, does have a triple against him in
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: one strike up with Pepio pretty much an unknown to Washington,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: so that should be an advantage to Pepio because when
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: hitters haven't seen a guy before, they have to take
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: some time to adjust to what he's gonna throw at them.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington. He's not very good.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Five point four ERA, one point four to three whip.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit better at home though, five
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: point eight RA at home. He's not been good at
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: all this month. Though this month has been a disaster.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Washington's lost four of his five starts, even if he's
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: in his uh. Even in the game that they won,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: he gave up six runs against Kansas City and walk
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: four guys. Awful nine point five to five VRA this
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: month thirteen eleven strike a walk ratio. Yes, he faced
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: some good offenses in here Milwaukee Mets Philly, but Irvin
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: is just completely out of for him right now. He's
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: awful right now. The one thing that maybe in his
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: favor is that Tampa only has four hitters who've ever
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: seen him before. Tampa, by the way, has two of
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: the Lows, Brandon and Josh, and they do not have
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: a than you'll who's on the ritzize oh Man Irvin.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Tampa's only one for ten off in lifetime with Brandon
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Low does have a home run off him, but other
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: than that, he's pretty much kept them in check. Two walks,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: one strikeout though, But that's such a small sample size.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna put more weight into the fact
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that Irvin has been pitching terribly recently. So, I even
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: though it should be a spot where when a team
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: comes back from a road trip and they don't do well,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: they tend to refocus and do better in the next game,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: but I don't think that's gonna be the case here.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are out of it. I lean
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: to Tampa in this game. They're up for minus one
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: forty five to minus one fifty seventy eight percent to
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: take us ninety three percent of the cash on them.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, I think they have the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: advantage in every aspect of this game. But you ever
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: having to lay a road favorite price on a mediocre team,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: So if you want to do that, I mean, they
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: should win the game, but of course there is the
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: possibility they don't. The money's also coming in in the
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: under in that game, which I mean, I guess the
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: argument for that would be Irvin has good matchup numbers
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: against Tampa and they're not very familiar with them. Ninety
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets on the over, sixty percent of
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the couch in the under total has already gone through
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the key number of nine down to eight and a half,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: so some legitimate movement on the under. But I don't
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: trust an under with Irvin. I certainly don't trust an
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: under with the Washington Bullpen either. If I was gonna
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: do it at all, it would be first five innings,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: but I don't like that idea either. Miami at the Mets,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: this game, of course, was a disaster. Yesterday for US
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: nineteen to nine was the final with the Mets winning.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Just thanks a lot, Uri Perez, you owe me money,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Bro Scott, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out? Yeah,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: WNBA funny to watch, that's true. Not since the dildos
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: has stopped being thrown, though I don't know why the
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: dildos have stopped. They got to just sneak them in
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: in their butttholes. Man. That's as the obvious way. The
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Mets use three relief pitchers yesterday. They do have the
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: better bullpen over Miami. Miami also used three, but they
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: used kind of longer relief guys because the game was over.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So like both teams have a lot of their better
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: relievers available today. I do kind of prefer Miami's starting
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: pitcher in this one. The Mets have the better offense obviously,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: but Edward Cabrera is pitching for the Marlins. He's been
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: pretty good this year three point three two ERA one
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: point one to eight whip worse on the road three
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: point nine three R in the road, but he's been
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: really good this month forty to eight strikeout walker ratio,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: three point two to three ERA. He had a couple
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: of games where he stumbled a bit, but he bounced
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: back with a one hit, seven inning shutout with ten
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: strikeouts against Atlanta, So really good start in his last outing.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Because numbers against the Mets are not horrible and well
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: they're okay, I guess some of these numbers are actually
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: not great. In seventy four at bats, he saw them
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: to a two thirty average, which is really good. Seven
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: ninety three ohps is a little high, though, and it's
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: a lot because he's allowed nineteen walks to them compared
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: to fourteen strikeouts, so his strikeout walk ratio is a
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: little bit of a red flag there. He's allowed four
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: home runs to them, but three of them are Alonso
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: and Alonzo. Those are his only three hits. He's three
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: for fourteen in off him, so I'm not as worried
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: about that, but the walk number is a bit concerning.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Although Cabrera is in pretty good for him right now.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: David Peterson is pitching for the Mets. He's having a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: good season. A guy I keep saying, I don't think
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: he can keep doing this because he still puts too
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: many guys on base three point one eight ERA one
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: point two to five whips. His whip indicates his ERA
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: should probably be higher. He does have a two point
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: nine to three ERA at home. He's been good at home,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: hasn't been as good this month though, a four point
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: six six ERA this month. The Mets have lost four
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: out of five this starts this month. Does have a
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: really high strikeout rate, which is kind of unlike Peterson.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: He's not really a strikeout guy, but he's got thirty
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts this month. But he also has fourteen walks,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: which is a lot. He's walking too many guys. He's
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: walked ten guys over his last three starts, although both
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: high walk outings are against Atlanta, which is strange. I
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: guess I don't know. Atlanta just draws a lot of
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: walks against him for whatever reason. His numbers are not
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: terrific against Miami. In thirty two at bats, twelve four
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is fine, but he's allowed three
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: home runs to three different batters. Two fifty average is
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: pretty low, but a nine to fifty eight ops is high.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: So Peterson, I mean, kind of similar to Cabrara in
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a way. Their numbers are a little bit questionable there.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: The Mets have more motivation here because they're trying to
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, but Miami is trying to play spoiler here.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I mean Miami, they'll they'll show up for a game
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: against the Mets, especially after they lost embarrassingly nineteen to
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: nine yesterday. The money is coming in on Miami. It's
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: down for minus one eighty five to minus one sixty
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: one on the Mets eighty seven percent of tickets, only
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash on them, So that
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: is the market read. I don't disagree with it. I
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: actually I like Cabrera more than Peterson, so I would
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: lean to Miami, but I would do it in the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: first five innings because I don't trust their bullpen. So
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: probably Miami money line first five innings at a solid
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: underdog price, or maybe even the run line probably makes sense.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: The money in this game is also on the under
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent of tickets in the over, sixty four
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in the under. That I probably
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: do know how to agree with, even though I know
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: last yesterday was just incredibly high scoring, so the public
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: is only going to want to play this over. But
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would trust the under man. Just
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Cabrera's walk numbers. I mean these guys. Their matchup numbers
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: don't look that elite to me. So like I worry
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: about the under in that game, man, but I think
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Miami is a stronger lean in that game. In the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: first five innings, it's up Andrew. Yeah, Atlantis, dude, I
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: like Atlantis, man. I saw her live in twenty twenty
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: one on the Jagged Little Pill tour. She did every
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: song off of that album, though not in sequence. It
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: was a really really good show. She was really good
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: and it was it was with Garbage and cat Power.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: It was a blast from the past. Man. Garbage actually
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: still sounded pretty good too, even though Shirley Manson is
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a heavy woman now not hot like she used to be,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: although still would probably. And cat Power is actually really
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: good too. She puts on a good live show. Charles,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: what's up man? But yeah, alanis dude. She still has
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: a ton of energy. She's a tiny chick and if
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: you haven't seen her live, she I think she has
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: like some autistic thing where she constantly is walking back
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and forth across the stage like that's how she does it.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: So it's actually hard to get like pictures of her
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: because she's always moving. It's how she got she keeps
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: in shape, man. And she does play guitar a little
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: bit as well. And I think she played piano at
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: one point at during the show too. Atlanta, Philadelphia. I'm
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: gonna have a play on this game too. This is
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: a nice pitching matchup in that game today, so I'll
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: skip that. Oh whoops, I jumped over my own Boston
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Yeah, we'll talk about this one. She is Canadian. Yeah, well,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: she wrote an entire song about like breaking up with
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Dave Coolier, so you know, and for anybody to be
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: dating Dave Coolier, you probably have to be a bit autistic.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Although I like Dave COOLi a man. I mean, he's
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a dude. He's he's a funny dude. What do you want? Uh?
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Just the kind of the old school prop comic vibe there,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: he's he's Joey Pirates Red Sox. Red Sox unfortunately took
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: the loss yesterday. We did get the underwright in that game.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox have the better offense here, they have
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, they have something to play for us.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: They're trying to make the playoffs, potentially vibe for the
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: division here. The Red Sox use five relief pitchers yesterday though,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: so that's not great. So their bullpen situation is not
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: exactly excellent right now. Though Chat hasn't pitched the last
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: couple of days, so he's available. But Red Sox is
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: gonna have to get something out of their starting pitching today,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if they necessarily will. Pittsburgh used
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday, but the Red Sox still have
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, even though the rest scenario isn't really
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: completely in their favor. The starting pitching matchup, it's hard
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: to even gauge this man, Johann Oviaedo is pitching for
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the Pirates. He's pretty much a I mean, he's a
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: really he's pretty much an unknown man. He's a huge dude,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: by the way, six six, two seventy five, kind of
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: like Peyton, totally on the mound yesterday. Oviedo's massive. He's
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: got a three point six ERA one point two whip,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: so his numbers are actually good. He's better on the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: road two point twenty five ERA. This is all in
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: a very small sample size though he's only made three appearances,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: he's only gone five innings once, Although his numbers are
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: pretty good fourteen to five strike a walk ratio and
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: his two longer outings. He gave up torn runs across
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: nine innings, only five hits, and had an eleven to
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: two strike up walk ratio against Toronto, which is pretty impressive.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: And then Saint Louis, who hasn't been hitting that well.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Oviedo is actually pitching well. He's been in the league
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, though, and his overall numbers are not
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: very good on his career, so I don't know if
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: this is just kind of a little bit of a
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: flash in the pan here. The Red Sox to have
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: four hitters who have faced him before two seventy three
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: average nine oh nine ops off him. Uh Masa Yoshida
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: is a home run off him, so I don't know
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: when that would have been, but uh, Red Sox have
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of familiarity with them. Still Oviedo, I
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: mean it's he's in good form right now, so it's
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: possible he pitches well. Here. Dustin May is pitching for
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, the Dodger acquisition for the Red Sox
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: that they've actually kept for now because the Red Sox
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: cut Bueller. Dustin May not having a great season. Four
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: point seven to ninety r a one point three to
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: eight whip. He's been better at home home three point
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: two four ERA at home, but that was mostly with
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. His last home outing with the Red Sox
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: was good, though against Baltimore. He went six innings held
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: them to two earned runs. Baltimore is a week offense,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: but so is Pittsburgh. Last outing for May was rough.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: You give up five and runs, three home runs, three walks. Yeah,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium in four and a third, but that
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: is the Yankees. I mean, this is a big time
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: step down to face Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh very atrocious offense. They
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: only have twelve at bats against May, so they haven't
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: really seen him much. Only four of their hitters have
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: seen him. They're two for twelve with no extra base hits,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, two walks. That's a one sixty seven average
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: of four point fifty two ohps. So May does have
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: good numbers against them. I mean to me, it kind
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: of seems like another under type of game here to me, man.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Even though the total is high at nine eighty one
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: percent or eighty two percent of the tickets now in
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the over only seventy three percent of the cash on
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the over. Maybe you take the Bullpens out of the equation.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's isn't that great. Red Sox is a little bit
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: used up. I could see an under first five in
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: this game as well. And you don't know how long
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Oviedo is gonna last in this game. May is at
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: least the more uh, the more established starter he's. You
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: know that he can get deeper into games than Oviedo
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: ken Right now, May I mean the Red Sox down
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: for minus one seventy five to minus one sixty three
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent to take his ninety three percent of
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. So the Red Sox obviously will
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: be a public side. The money line's a little bit high,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: although it seems kind of low. Man, I actually expected
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox to be maybe like minus one ninety
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: in this game. It's May getting a lot of disrespect
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: or maybe Oviedo actually getting some respect. I don't know.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Hopefully the Red Sox do win because they're a home
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: favorite and they got to bounce back from yesterday and
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: they're still in the playoff mix here and they're behind
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the Yankees again. But we'll see. Like I said, Atlanta,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Philly will be a play for me, so I'll skip
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: that for now. U Saint Louis Cincinnati. I also have
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: a play in that one. Anaheim at Houston. Houston got
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the win yesterday. They've won three games in a row.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Shut out of Anaheim yesterday two to nothing. Houston, their
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: offense still kind of struggling. Probably Anaheim. You actually have
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: to give Anaheim a little bit of an offensive edge
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: over Houston the way Houston has been playing offensively, although
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Houston has a way better bullpen. I'm actually wondering. Yeah,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Houston's at thirteenth in ops now and Anaheim is down
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: to twentieth, So I guess technically Houston's offense is still
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the better offense, but it doesn't seem that way. They
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: are still the better overall team though. Anaheim actually has
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: a pretty rested bullpen right now, though Houston did only
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: use three relievers yesterday too. Although Houston has so many
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: bullpend injuries that I don't even know exactly who rounds
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: out their bullpen. We're about to get to September call ups,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna have expanded bullpen soon. Started pitching in
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: this game. Well. First of all, Houston obviously has a
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: little bit more to play for here because they're still
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: trying to win their division. They're probably gonna make the playoffs. Anaheim,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: they'll still show up motivated though, because of course it's
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a divisional matchup. Don't want to spoil the party for Houston.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Anaheim again, as I keep pointing out, is nowhere near
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: as good as even the record looks, and the record
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: is still not good. Anaheim is really not a good team.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: They've been over performing. Sorry Andrew Kyle hendrix s'spicch me
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: for Anaheim. He is not the best pitcher, kind of
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: an aging journeyman here. Five point four ERA, one point
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: three to two whip. He's been worse on the road
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: five point four to three ERA on the road. Not
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: good stuff this month from him six point four to
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: six ERA, seventeen to eleven strike out walk ratio, giving
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: up four and runs or more in his last three outings,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: three walks a piece in each of them. Granted it
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: was against the Dodger, Cincinnati, and the Cubs. All of
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: those were at home where he actually tends to bitch
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. So even though those are offenses
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: that can definitely do damage, that's still not a good sign.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Against Houston, his numbers are bad and sixty at bats
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: three seventeen average, nine to twenty nine ops allowed, eight
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: to six strike a walk ratio not good either, so
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Houston historically not good. Houston, their starter
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: here is a big time question mark man Spencer rag Getty,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: who has shown glimpses of being a good pitcher. He's
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: still young, but he is not having a good season here.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched that much this season because he came
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: back from injury six point two to one toy array
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: though one point five to whip very very bad. Whip.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Can't put one and a half guys on basin ning man,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. He's been good at home though,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: two point four to five RRA at homes, so his
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: home road splits are in his favor. Houston has not
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: won any of his starts as he came back from injury,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: all four losses this month, six point five two e
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: array this month and fifteen to ten strike a walk ratio.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: That's all bad. Although his best outing of the month
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: was basically his most recent outing it was. It was
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore, not a good offense, and he went five
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: to two thirds on the road. Actually at Baltimore. Gave
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: up two urn runs in that start, so that was
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: a good start from him. Two strikeouts, not a high
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate, but no walks at least, so he did
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: at least do better. So maybe he is kind of
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: improving a little bit just based on that. His numbers
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: aren't good against Anaheim, but it's a very small ten
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: at bat sample size. They only have four hitters have
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: ever faced him before. Nido does have a home run
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: off him. He's a lot of three hundred average and
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: one thousand ops to them, so his numbers aren't good,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: but it is a small sample size, So I mean,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: I probably would kind of have to lean to Houston
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: in this game. They are taking the money even though
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: they're down for minus one to sixty one fifty five
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets ninety five percent of the
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on Houston, so they are getting the money.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: I think rag Getty, I mean, he has way more
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: room for improvement. Whereas Hendrix, you just know exactly what
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: he is and he's not that good. Arragetty is at
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: least better than his numbers look. But it's possible that
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the way to play this though, is actually an over,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: and yesterday it was ridiculously low scoring too. The total's
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: gone up to nine juice to the over here it's
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: headed towards ten, which is a ridiculous total for a
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: game at Houston. Ninety four percent take is ninety eight
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: percent of cash coming in on the over. I mean,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: you get the benefit of Anaheim's bullpend not being good.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen is kind of injured right now. Both starting
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: pitchers could potentially not do well there, so I would
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: actually maybe even say it over is actually the best
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: way to look at that game, although I do have
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a slight lean to Houston as well. Yankees White Sox,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play on that game as well.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: I'll skip it for now. San Diego at Minnesota on
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Minnesota actually got the win yesterday despite returning O from
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a road trip San Diego. They're really not good on
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: the road man, because San Diego they still have something
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: to play for. They're trying to win the NL West,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: trying to ensure that they make the playoffs. Minnesota basically
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: unloaded their team at the All Star breaks, so all
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: they really have to play for is getting some wins
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: against some good teams crazy that they won yesterday. San
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Diego obviously has the better bullpen here. Minnesota didn't use
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: as much of their bullpen really yesterday, though San Diego.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: The guys they did use out of their bullpen yesterday
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: they used quite heavily, although they San Diego has a
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: lot of good arms in that bullpen though they're a
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: really good bullpen, so they still have the bullpen edge here.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: As far as the hitting, neither of these teams are
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: very good offensively, and Minnesota actually has a higher OPS
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: this season in San Diego, though it's really close. San
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Diego probably has more potential in their offense in Minnesota
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: because they traded guys like Correa away. Maybe you do
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: tip the offensive edge a little bit to San Diego,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: but it's close. San Diego does have the better starter
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: with Nick Pavetta here two point eight two ERA point
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: nine to four whip. I mean, that's elite, but he's
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: doing a lot of that at home in their Pitcher
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Froendly Ballpark. He hasn't been as good on the road
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: three point four to three ERA. On the road, still good,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: but not as good. Month he's been good two point
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: eight to fourty RA thirty to nine strike a walk ratio,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: so again, he's still in good form. His last couple
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: of starts, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: three starts in a row, two of them against San
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Francisco though a bad offense, but the other one against
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers a good offense. Minnesota is a bad offense,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: and they don't have that much experience against them. They've
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: only seen Paveda fifteen at bats where only five of
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: their hitters have faced and which seems kind of strange
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: because he was in the American League with the Red Sox.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: But whatever, they only have fifteen at bats against him.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: He's hell him to a two hundred average six hundred
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: ohps five to three strike a walk ratio is not great,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: but overall, I do think Paveta probably will come out
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: and handle Minnesota here would be my opinion. I think
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: he will pitch well. Taj Bradley is pitching for Minnesota,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: not having a good season four point nine to five
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: VRA one point three two whip. He's still pretty young
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: twenty four, so he does have the potential to maybe
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: get better, but he's been bad at home five point
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: four three However, that was all with Tampa Bay, and
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: you know Tampa Bay plays in that spring training stadium
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: which is a very hitter friendly stadium. So we don't
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: know what his numbers are gonna look like pitching at
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: home from Minnesota yet. But his first start with Minnesota
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: was horrendous. It was against the White Sox on the road,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: very weak offense, and he gave up seven earned runs
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: in five innings in that game, one strike out, one walk,
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: nine hits allowed. Very bad outing from him. So Bradley,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think we could trust him at all in
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: this matchup. And his numbers against San Diego are bad,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: even though only five of their heroes have faced him before.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: In thirty one at bats. They have a four to
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: fifty two average, one thousand and forty two ops uh,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: two to three strike out walker ratio, and home runs
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: from Machado and O'Hearn h So Bradley could get absolutely
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: wiped in this game. Man. So San Diego they do
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: have the pitching edge across the board here, but ridiculously
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Minnesota. I can't figure
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: that one out. It seems to me like San Diego
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: has the vantage across the board here. I know that
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: some of it has to do with the fact that
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: their road favorite, and I know they're bad on the road,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: so I think maybe the money is kind of saying, well,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: just the price isn't justified. But I don't really see
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: San Diego losing this game, especially after losing yesterday, because
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that kind of gives you extra motivation, you know, when
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: you lose a game like that to a bad team.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: San Diego down for one fifty five to ninety three
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, fifty four percent of the
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on Minnesota though, so strong market read
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: on the Minnesota side, I don't really see it. Seattle Cleveland,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: this almost made my card. This was almost a fifth
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: baseball play for me on the under in this game
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: in Seattle Cleveland. I like the under in this one.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are very well rested, so that's part of
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: the reason why. UH Seattle was off on Thursday and
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: then they only used two pitchers yesterday. Cleveland also was
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: off on Thursday and also only used two pitchers yesterday,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: so we have a ton of boot and bullpen rest
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: in this game. Cleveland somehow remains fourth in bullpen era.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Seattle is not that much worse at eleventh, so we
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: have good bullpens rest at bullpen's. Cleveland is a very
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: bad offense. Seattle's offense is obviously the better one. Seattle
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: does have more motivation here because they're trying to make
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're still fighting for their division. Cleveland pretty
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: much nothing left to play for here. Cleveland did win
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: yesterday five to four, though they have won three games
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: in a row. Seattle may show up with more intensity
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: because of that. Though Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle here.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: He's got good numbers three point six to nine ERA
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: one point zero three whip, but he's way worse on
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: the road six ERA on the roads. That's part of
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the reason why I'm hesitanting a little bit to go
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: under in this game. His numbers on the road are
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: just very, very bad. But Cleveland is such a bad offense.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: I do think he's gonna do well anyway. He's in
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: good form this month, thirty three to six, strike out
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, although is yeah, is bad four point six
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: to two, but that's because of one start where he
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: got lit up at Philadelphia. Although that was a road start.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: They hit him, they got him for six runs in
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: two winnings, but other than that, he's allowed three or
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in all four of his other starts
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: this month. He got thirteen strikeouts last time out in
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: a six inning, one run performance against the A's. That
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: was a really good performance. His strikeout rate being really
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: high indicates that he is in command right now. His
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: numbers against Cleveland are decent, and they haven't really seen
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: him much. Cleveland only has three hitters have seen him
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: before twenty eight at bats. I have six strikeouts, no walks.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Ramirez does have one oh run off him. They have
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: a two eighty six average, which is pretty high, but
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: seven to fourteen ops not that high. So I do
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: think Gilbert will do well in this specific matchup, even
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: though he's not good on the road. Typically, he's up
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: against Gavin Williams, who does have a three point three
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: six RRA for Cleveland. That's good, although his whip is
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: too high one point three to two whip is not good.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: He's a little bit better at home three point one
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: to eighty r at home. But the thing that worries
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: me about Williams is that his recent form has been bad.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: He's basically started alternating good and bad starts. And since
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: he took that no hitter into the final out against
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the Mets and wound up giving up a home run
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: and he was that close to having a no hitter,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: he had a really bad start the next time out
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: because he threw one hundred and twenty six pitches in
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: the game against the Mets. I think that wore him down.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: He was hung over, had a really bad start against
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Miami the next time out. He bounced back with a
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: nice shutout on the road. So his better starts recently
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: actually came on the road for whatever reason at Arizona
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: shut them out for five and a third. But his
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: most recent start was terrible at Texas Texas not a
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: good offense. Gave up three on runs, walked four guys,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: only lasted three and a third. Very inefficient pitch wise,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: ninety pitches. So I can't say he's in good form
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: right now, even though he's a two point seven to
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: three ERA this month, twenty six to twelve strikeout walk
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: ratio not good. That's too many walks. Again, his problem
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: really is the walks. So I don't know if we
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: could really trust him just because his recent form isn't good.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Seattle are good. They only have five
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: hits and thirty at bats against him. Raley does have
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a home run, but three strikeouts, two walks, one sixty
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: seven average allowed in five nineteen ops allowed to uh
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: whoops to Seattle for Williams. But I do lean to
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the under in this game anyway. Rested bullpens are a
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: big part of it. The total is already getting really low.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: It flipped from seven and a half juice to the
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: over to seven and a half juice to the under,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: so it is a very low total. Seventy one percent
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: of tickets around the over and nine percent of the
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: cash on the unders. It's a huge like pros versus
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Joe's market read here too, So the pros appear to
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: be taking the under in this game. Again, I do
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: agree with it. If you want to go under, you
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: got to get the seven and a half man, I
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: would say, try to get the best of the number seven.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I guess you could still go under seven if you
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: really have a definitely don't go under six and a
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: half though, seven very key number. Seattle is down for
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: minus one forty five to minus one thirty three on
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: the money line. Sixty takes ninety percent of the cash
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: on Seattle, so the money seems to actually becoming you know, Seattle,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: even though they initially dropped on the money line. So Gilbert,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I suppose Gilbert is the more trustworthy pitcher.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Just his strikeout walk numbers are way better than Williams's.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: So take all that into account, I guess. But I
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: think the way to play that game is the under
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: the bulp. Like the first thing I saw was the
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest scenarios like, man, that looks good for an under.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Detroit is at Kansas City, so Zach is gonna pop
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: up here? Charles, what's up? Man t Bow? And that's right?
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Uh oh wait, I already said what's up? Didn't I?
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Because I pointed out the autistic Canadian thing. Kansas City
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: return over from a road trip and lost yesterday. Again,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: it's a road trip return spot, I mean, not the
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: greatest spot for Kansas City. Although you know, Kansas City
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: is not overlook Detroit. Kansas City is still trying to
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs too, so they will show up here.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Detroit should show up as well because they're trying to
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: ensure their playoff spot. Probably want to make sure that
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is in their rear view mirror. But in
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: this situation, man, I think Kansas City could be in
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a bounce back spot because they
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: lost yesterday. In the return home spot, they have a
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: little bit more motivation than Detroit probably does. Kansas City
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: will be a home underdog in this game. Yes, the
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: big advantage Detroit as is that their offense is the
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: better offense. Kansas City's is not good. Kansas City has
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, although they used four relief pitchers, but
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: so did Detroit, so Kansas City does have the better bullpen.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching is interesting because you look at this on
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the surface and it looks like you want to lead
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: to Detroit because they have the more established starred or
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: in Jack Flaherty. But he's not really having a great season.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Four point eight seven ERA, one point three whip that's
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: not very good. He's actually been really bad on the road,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: six point eighty R on the road. You'd think, well,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: but it's Kansas City pitcher front the ballpark Kansas City
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: that can't hit, so he should do better against Kansas
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, right, Well, his last start was against Kansas
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: City and he only went five innings and he allowed
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: eight earned runs on ten hits in that outing. So
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: you think he's good against Kansas City, he's not. He's
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: a six point three three ERA this month. Detroit's lost
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: four of his five starts, and it's not like he's
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: facing good offenses year either. He had a good start
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: against Philadelphia and then his bad starts are against Minnesota,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: the White Sox in Kansas City. So these weak offenses
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: in his own division, he's bad against all of them.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Makes no sense, but yeah, I mean it seems to
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: be a trend. He does have a twenty eight to
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk race here this month, so that
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: is good, but these bad offenses in his division are
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: wrecking him. Man and his last outing in July against
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: a bad offense Pittsburgh, he did badly in that start too.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: It's like it messes with his head or something. Against
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, his numbers aren't good, like I said, in
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: sixty six at bats to eighty eight to average, allowed
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: seven to sixty two ops, so Flawerty not good against
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. Although twelve to five strike a walk ratio
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: is okay. He's going up against Stephen Coleck, who doesn't
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: have good numbers this year, four point one eighty RA,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: one point three to one whip. He was on San
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Diego this entire time. He's been really difficult to figure out, man,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: because San Diego has a pitcher friendly park. But he
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: had a nine point four or five ERA there, and
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: now he's going from San Diego to another pitcher friendly
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: park at Kansas City. Does that mean he's gonna also
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: be really bad at home in Kansas City. I mean,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: it just makes no sense. I don't know, man, but
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: he got traded at the trade deadline. He hasn't pitched
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: in the majors since July. Let me actually look real quickly.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna look real quickly at his minor league numbers
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: here because I didn't look because I wasn't gonna play
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: this game Coleck and the miners this year. Let me see,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: because I think that's where he was in the meantime. Here,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Triple A, where are we at here? I'm looking real
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: quick in Triple A? He was actually bad at Triple A. Omaha.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: He had a six point six three ERA and two
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: point one to one whip and three fifty seven batting
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: average allowed in nineteen innings. I don't know if that
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: was where he was most recently, but that's not a
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: good sign. Cola terrible in Triple A. Although Detroit's never
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: faced him before, So does that mean he's gonna have
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a the mystery edge there, the
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: fact that they haven't seen it before. I mean maybe.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I mean his overall numbers really aren't that horrific this
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: year because of the unfamiliarity, because Flowerty is just so
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: bad against Kansas City and they just saw him and
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: it is a bounce back spot for Kansas City. Yeah,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: my leaning this game would be to Kansas City. Uh yeah,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Charles Tigers eight and three against as the City. Yeah,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: but what's their record with Flaherty on the mound against
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. I'm pretty sure it's not eight and three?
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Let me see, because I know they lost one of
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: those games, the most recent one. What else did he do?
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Do he pitch against Kansas City? Otherwise? This here? No,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: that was the only time. So Flaherty is owned one
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City this year and his numbers again are
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: not good against them. The money seems like it is
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: coming in on Detroit, but they're a public road favorite too.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one twenty to minus one sixteen.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Here seventy four percent of tickets ninety five percent of
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on them, so the cash seems
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: to be on their side. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I have a slight lean to Kansas City, but it's possible.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: The better way to play this might be an over
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Kansas City up from nine to nine, or excuse me,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the total up from nine to nine, juice to the over.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Ninety six percent of tickets, only ninety two percent of
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. But Flaherty, I mean, his
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: bad matchup numbers plus colect being so bad in triple A,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity might not help him out here. He's been
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: so bad pitching at home this year in pitcher friendly parks,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: he might not do well here. So over might make
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: sense here. And we do have some question marks in
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: the bullpench just as far as the USA is concerned, Well,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: thank you. I'm not saying I'm definitely right. I think
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: actually probably the over is the better way, although I
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: do have a slight lean to Kansas City in that
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: game too. Baltimore at San Francisco. San Francisco is on
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: a roll right now. They've won six games in a row.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: This pathetic offensive. Theirs has actually scored double digit runs
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: two of the last three games. They beat Baltimore fifteen
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to eight yesterday, but Baltimore was having to travel across
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: country to the Pacific Coast, so not exactly the easiest
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: spot coming off that big series against the Red Sox.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's lost five games in a row. So we have
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: two trains moving in opposite directions. But both of these
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: teams are kind of out of it now, and I
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: actually think that these trains will actually both collide and
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: they'll both stop in this one, because I do actually
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: kind of lean to Baltimore in this one. Maybe it's
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: a first five inning play though, because San Francisco does
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: have the way better bullpen, and they didn't use a
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: whole lot of it over the last few days, so
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's good and it's in good shape. Baltimore's bullpen
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: is not good, and it's not really in good shape either,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: so San Francisco does have a bullpen edge. San Francisco's
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: offense is still so weak that I think Baltimore does
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: have the better offense here. I mean, I could check
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: that quickly, but Baltimore actually not even that bad. They're
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: like a mid tier offense. Ops. Why San Francisco is
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: in the bottom six but San Francisco, well, I'll they
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: have decided on a pitcher today, so I'll talk about
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: that in a second. Trevor Rodgers is pitching for Baltimore, though,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: and he's been just inexplicably awesome. Like I've pointed out
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: multiple times, he wasn't good when he was on Miami,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: he wasn't good in the minors this year, but he's
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: been excellent for Baltimore. I don't really get it, but
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: I've gone with him the last couple of times he's pitched,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: and it's worked out one point four yard point eight
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: three whip or the last couple of times that that
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I've decided to make a play on a Baltimore game
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: with him pitching, I guess I should say. But yeah,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: his numbers are great. He's a little bit worse on
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: the road, but that's still a one point eight to
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: ninety ra. Baltimore's won his last four starts. I've actually
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: won something like ten of his thirteen starts on the season,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: they've won something like that. He's allowed one or fewer
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: earned runs and every out and going all the way
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: back into July, and he's allowed two or fewer going
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: all the way back into early June, and he's only
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: allowed more than more than two earned runs once. Hasn't
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: allowed more than three earned runs at all this entire season,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: although he hasn't pitched the entire season, but he's pitched
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: more than half of it at this point. I think
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: one point two ninety ra this month with a thirty
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: six to six strike a walk ratio. He's gone at
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: least six innings in every outing, allowed one earned run
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: exactly in every outing, and Baltimore's won his last four starts,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: some of them against good lineups too, So Rogers is
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: doing this against Cubs, Red sox SO and some of
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: those on the road, all of those actually on the road,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: so he is pitching well. San Francisco is a step
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: down offensively from those teams, big time, and this is
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park. His numbers are mediocre against San
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Francisco that they saw him, I guess when he was
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: on Miami forty one at bats thirteen to four strike
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is pretty good, but at two sixty
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: eight batting average, seven to twenty four oh ps. Not
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: horrible numbers, but mediocre. But he's so good this season.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I do expect him to pitch well here too. He's
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: in good form, and San Francisco has listed Carson Seymour
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: as their starter, so he's a relief pitcher, so they're
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen game here. He's got a three
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: point seven four ERA one point three to eight whip,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: he's a hefty guy to six point six six two
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: fifty five man. Uh, he's got a three point three
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: eight home YRA, but I think you're only gonna get
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: probably two or three innings out of him. He's made
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: a couple of two three inning outings this year. He's
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: been okay, but I mean, uh, San Francisco lost all
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: of his outings this month before his last outing where
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: he went one inning against the Cubs, so all the
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: other games that he was in they lost. Sol though
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: it might have been a situation where they were just
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: putting him in in games that were already out of
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: hand for them to some extent because he came in
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: in relief, I think in all those outings. But this
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: means it's basically a bullpen game for the Giants. Although yes,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is good and it is rested, so maybe
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: that's not terrible for the Giants there. But I would
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: lean to Baltimore in the first five innings and that one,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: although they're down for might just one twenty three to
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: minus one thirteen. But maybe that's my old school nature
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: not liking the bullpen game. Eighty three percent tickets, ninety
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash coming in on San France.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on San Francisco a little bit,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: but they are public as well because they've been winning
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: every game recently. The under might also be worth a
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: look here because San Francisco at least their bullpen is rested,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: so a bullpen game might not actually be that bad.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Neither offense is that Gunn Rogers has been so good
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: and under in a picture friendly park like this, those
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: make sense to me. The totals at eight seventy one
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets only sixty three percent of the cash
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: on the over, so it seems like the money's coming
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: in in the under. I don't disagree with that, obviously.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. Cubs are at the Rockies. Rockies
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: lost yesterday eleven to seven, high scoring game. I thought
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: it would not be as high scoring as it was.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Cubs have motivation here obviously because the Cubs are trying
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. Make sure they make the playoffs.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: Colorado was out of it, but with the Cubs in
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: your house, I mean, you're probably gonna step up for
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: a game against the Cubs, regardless. Should have mentioned by
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the way Baltimore San Francisco they are both out of it,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: so take that into account. The Cubs have the better
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: offense and the better bullpen over Colorado, but they used
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday or no four? Excuse me? Colorado
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: used three, and actually you sends a Tella out of
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: the bullpen, so Colorado might have moved him out of
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: the starting retation. I still think you got to give
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge to the Cubs here. Starting pitching is
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: interesting here, and the Cubs have the more established starter,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: so you probably do give them the starting pitching edge.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: With Javier assad Man, since he's been ousted from being
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: the leader of Syria, he's now in the Cubs starting
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: pitching rotation. He's got a three point eight six ERA
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: and one point two to nine whip. His whip is
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: definitely too high. That's been the problem with a SOD.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's had a decent ERA throughout his career
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: but so far, but his whip has always been too high.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: He walks too many guys, isn't really a strikeout guy.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have a four point five road ERA, which
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: isn't that good. And I actually looked up his stats
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: at course field. He's actually been pretty bad in course field.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: He's pitched in courts field I actually, I think three
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: times over the last three seasons, and he hasn't really
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: done well in any of those outings. He's only made
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: three starts this year, and they did ramp him up
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: in each. Uh, well, they didn't really ramp him up,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: but he did get the six innings the last time out,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: so that's a decent sign that he went deeper into
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the game last time out. He only allowed one on
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: run the last couple outings, but they were against Anaheim
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: pits Burgh. Pittsburgh very bad offense. But we do know
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: that Colorado is also a bad offense. But again, this
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: is course field, so I'm not quite sold on a
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: SOD pitching well in this one. Colorado has good numbers
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: against him. Actually, in thirty three at bats, they have
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: a three ninety four average, one tho ninety seven ops.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Goodman and Arcia both have home runs off him. And
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: again it's course field, so Asad may not pitch well here.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: He's going up against mccaid brown for Colorado, who I
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: believe made his major league debut last time out and
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: it did not go well. It was against Pittsburgh, so
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: he got the easy draw there against Pittsburgh and did
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: terribly anyway, Unlike my man Peyton Toley, who did pretty
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: well for the Red Sox yesterday, he just started wearing
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: down a little bit when it got into the fifth
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: inning or a sixth inning. Excuse me, mckaid brown. He
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: didn't do well in the start against Pittsburgh. Three and
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, four and runs, allowed, three walks, two strikeouts.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Wasn't a good outing for him. Don't expect him to
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: do well here even so, obviously the Cubs haven't seen
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: him before, but he's not pitching well. I mean, the
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Cubs good offense obviously, so I think an over maybe
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: be the way to look in this game. I mean,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: for the Cubs, you're obviously paying too much of a
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: price down for minus two hundred minus one ninety five
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent tickets seventy nine percent of the cash
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: on them to the money coming in against the Cubs
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: at least at that price. Again, with a high price
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: like that, it's basically just saying the price is too high.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Not necessarily, the Cubs are gonna lose. The game total
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: drop from eleven and a half to eleven. And we
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: don't really see the percentages on this thing yet, but
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean to the over in that game,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: even though I know yesterday's game is very high scoring
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: as well. Arizona at the Dodgers, I'm actually surprised the
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Dodgers lost yesterday, lost their win streak and they lost
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: three to nothing. So sometimes when you lose a win
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: streak like that, it will hang you over into the
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: next game. But maybe not for the Dodgers, because they
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: got shut out man and the Dodgers are still playing
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: for something here. Arizona's gonna show up too, because it's
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: a big visional game against the Dodgers, even though Arizona
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: is out of it. The Dodgers obviously trying to win
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: their division, so they're gonna show up to the Dodgers.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I thought they were in a good spot yesterday, especially
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: because they didn't play the day before. That very crazy
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: that they wound up losing and getting shut out. The
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Dodgers getting shut out at home is a very unlikely
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: scenario because they have the most runs scored at home
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: in all of baseball. The Dodgers use four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen's not good, but Arizona's is worse. Although Arizona's
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: bullpen is more well rested, and they actually had a
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: pretty rested bullpen after Thursday even though they played on Thursday,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: so Arizona's bullpen is more rested than the Dodgers. Neither
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: bullpen is good, so that kind of does even out
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: the bullpen scenario a little bit. But I think the
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have a big starting pitching edg year at Dwardo
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: Rodriguez this pitching for Arizona again. He hasn't been good
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: since his Tommy John surgeries. He's getting up there in
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: age a little bit. I don't know that he's ever
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: really gonna return into what he was a five point
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: six seven ERA one point six to four whip is
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: just awful. He's been pretty much the same home and
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: road home road splits very insignificant. He's got a five
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: point eight one ERA this month, eighteen to thirteen strike
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio very not good, even though his team
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: won four games in a row of his they were
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: against Colorado, Cleveland, the A's. I mean, that was a
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: difficult one at the A's. It's a tough place to pitch.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: But other than that, weak lineups, and then he had
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: a bad start against a strong lineup against Milwaukee last
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: time out. He's given up four or more on runs
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: and three of his last four outings, so he's not
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: actually in good form right now. Only had one strikeout
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: in that last outing, tool though was a shortened outing
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: because he pitched really poorly. But he's obviously facing a
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: really good Dodger line up here, and the Dodgers have
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: absolutely smacked him in ninety four at bats, so he
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: has a lot of a lot of history against him.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Twenty two and to nine strike at walk ratio isn't
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: two bad, but four point thirty six batting average allowed
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: thousand and two seventy nine oh ps is ridiculous. So
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the Dodgers are terrible. And he's going
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: up against Tyler Glasnow who is one of the best
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: pitchers in the Dodgers' rotation three point three six ERA,
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: one point one seven WHIP, really good numbers. He's been
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: really good at home two point three two ERA at
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: home last time out. Not a good start though, only
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: went four innings, walked four guys give it three on
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: runs at San Diego, a pitcher friendly park, so he's
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: gonna have to bounce back from that. But he still
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed more than four and runs going all the
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: way back into April, and he's allowed three or fewer
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: in all but one start going all the way back
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: through that period of time. He's ramped up his pitching
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: like he's going deeper into games now. He's got a
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: three point three two ERA this month, twenty six to
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: eleven strike out walk ratio, so it is too many walks.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: The walks have been a little bit of an issue
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: for him recently. Hasn't gone that deep into his recent
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: starts though, so that's kind of an issue as well.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: He's just not efficient with his pitches right now. He
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't have high strike gout rate as well, which is
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: expected as numbers against the d Backs are good and
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: they only five hitters. I've ever seen them before. Surprisingly
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: twenty three at bats six to two strike a walk race,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: you're two seventeen average allowed and uh five eighty four ohps.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: So Glasnow does have the better numbers here. I would
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: maybe be looking towards maybe Dodgers. You know, you could
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: go Dodgers over their team total, and maybe that's actually
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: the best way to go after they got shut out yesterday,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: even though Glasnow should have the upper hand of the
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. If you if you want to go
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: with just E Rod to get you know, lit up
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: in this game, the money's coming in in the over
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: as well, eight and nine percent of tickets, ninety six
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, it's up to
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the over. I think
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: that the more likely scenario, you're probably gonna get more
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: of those runs from the Dodgers here, So going to
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: them over their team total against E Rod plus the
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Arizona bullpen makes some sense to me. Dodgers ninety three
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only eighty eight percent of the cash
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: on them sitting at my min to ten minus to
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: twelve too much of a price slay with the Dodgers
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: if you do like the Dodgers in the starting pitching matchup.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: You could go like a run line in the first
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: five innings, but I still think the Dodger team total
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: is the way to go. Texas at the A's to
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: finish this off. Of course, we're looking at this very
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly stadium. Here is the A's playing a Triple
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: A ballpark. The A's lost yesterday five to two to
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: start the series. Texas does have something to play for,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: of course, they're still really fighting for the division and
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: a playoff spot. The A's are out of it. Although
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: the A's have been playing a little bit looser recently.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: They're playing a bit better now that they know they're
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: out of it. They will probably show up for a
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: home divisional game here Texas obviously, obviously they have the
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: way better bullpen and they're very rested. I think will
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: use two relievers over the last two days. The A's
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: don't have as good a bullpen. They didn't play on
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Thursday either of those, so they will only used three
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: relievers over that span. But Texas has the better bullpen,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: the A's have the better offense. Sex Is offense is
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: not very good. Starting pitching is a very interesting one
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: with Merrill Kelly pitching for Texas. He's having a good
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: season between Arizona and Texas. Three point two ERA, one
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: point oh five whip good pick up for Texas for
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: the stretch. Run here Man a little bit better on
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: the road to three point oh five ERA on the road.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: He's used to pitching in a hitter friendly park, at
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: least because he was pitching for Arizona. Uh Since being
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: acquired by Texas, which is all of his starts this month,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: he has a three point one ERA twenty six to
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: eight strikeout walk ratio, so he's basically just continued to
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: pitch well. He's allowed more than tour in runs once
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: against Philly, a good lineup four and runs allowed in
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: that one. It still wasn't a good start, but he's
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: been good otherwise. Coming off a seven inning shutout against
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and the as only of nine at bats against
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: him because he's been in the National League, so they're
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar with They have three hitters I've ever seen
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: it before, and they're er for nine with five strikeouts
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: and no walks against him, so none of them even
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: reach base off of Kelly. Uh So he does have
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: good matchup numbers. There and he's unfamiliar to them. But
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: speaking of unfamiliar, Mason Barnett will be making his major
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: league debut for the A's here, and he's a guy
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: that does throw hard. He throws mid to upper nineties,
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: so he's got a good fastball. But I got some
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: issues with him. And it looks like he's on the
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: un right now. Right he has an unknown position. Man,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: his position is with the un so we should probably
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: not like this guy. But I have some issues with
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Barnett man. Even though his scouting report looks pretty good,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: it's mostly like fastball slider though, like I guess that's
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: kind of the mix that he mostly throws a hard
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: fastball on a slider, but major league hitters can hit that.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: But my main problem is his numbers in Triple A
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: this year are atrocious. His numbers at Triple A he
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: has over a six ERA and I believe his whip
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: is over two. So it's like, how can you trust
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: this guy if he's been that bad in Triple A.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: I don't really understand it. So I mean, yeah, his
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: scouting report looks good, there's a reason why the A's
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: are calling him up. You know, give him some work.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: See what he can do out there. But he's also
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: in a very hitter friendly ballpark here too, although he
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: is facing a weak lineup, so at least there's that again.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: All that being set, I mean, the under does still
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: seem to kind of make sense in this game, even
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: though it's a hitter friendly ballpark. I would probably only
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: go first five innings. It would be really just based
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: on Barnett's ceiling, his potential, and the fact that he's
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: unknown to Texas and the Texas offense isn't good. But
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: his triple A numbers really really scare me away. Seventy
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under, ninety five percent of
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: the cash on the unders. Of the money is coming
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: in on the under, it's flipped to ten and a
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: half juice to the under, and the money's coming in
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: on the a's, which is crazy. It seems like the
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: professional money is sold on Mason Barnett. I mean, are
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: they not looking at his triple A numbers? I don't know,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: but there's some reason now why the money's coming in
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: that way. Fifty four percent of tickets on Texas, sixty
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the as. Texas down
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: for MI ready to minus one twenty six on the
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: money line. Yeah, so the money is coming in on
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the a's there. I won't have my money on it.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: I won't recommend it as a play, but it's it's
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: interesting to say the least. Let's go to my plays here, man.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: First one up is gonna be the Toronto Blue Jays
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: minus a half run on the run line in the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: first five innings only, And that's only because I don't
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: like the bullpen scenario here. Their bullpen got a little
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: bit trash yesterday and they used five relief pitchers yesterday
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: out of the like seven they have on the roster
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: right now. So I'm worried about the Toronto bullpen in
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: this game. I Milwaukee used less of their bullpen. Yes
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: to their bullpen somewhat untrustworthy as well. They're actually the
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen on the season still, and Milwaukee lost on
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: Megil for a while to injury. He's their closer. But
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: we're gonna focus on just the starting pitching match appearent,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: and I do think Toronto's gonna come out early in
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: this game mad because they lost the last game. Both
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: these teams are gonna show up because they're both fighting
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: for playoff positioning. But this is situations more die or
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: for Toronto. I think they only have a three game
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: lead now in the Al East after losing yesterday. Yeah,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: so the Yankees are right behind them. The Red Sox
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: are only three and a half behind them, So Toronto
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: does need to show up here. Quinn Priester, I know
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: it's hard to go against this trend man where Milwaukee's
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: won fifteen games in a row where he's appeared. Most
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: of them have been starts for him, and he was
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: a follower and a couple of them. I know it's crazy,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: but Priester, even though his numbers are good on the season,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: three point four to four ERA, one point two to
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: six WHIP is a little high. He's good, but I
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: don't think he's as good as his RARA looks as
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: ERA this month is up to four point twenty nine.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: I mean it's four point two nine this month and
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: a fifteen to nine strike a walk ratio is not
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: a good sign. He's only gone five and a third
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: or less in his last three outings, even though they
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: continue to win his outings. I had five walks in
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: his most recent outing against the Cubs, so there's a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: lot of stuff that should worry you about the way
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Priester is pitching right now, and I think this might
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: be where his streak comes to end. But we don't
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: even need that to be the case. We can have
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee late game heroics again and it won't matter as
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: long as Toronto's winning after the first five and this
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: one we'll still get it. Priests numbers against the Blue Jays.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: They only have eighteen at bats against him, but most
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: of their lineup has faced him before, and they have
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: a three point thirty three average and eighty nine ops
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: offen with a him Menez home run as well in
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: the mix there, so they've been able to hit him decently. Again,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: he's not really in great form. We're gonna trust Kevin
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Gaussman here for the Blue Jays, who's the more established starter.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: He's having a pretty good season three point eight seven ERA,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: one point seven whip, although he doesn't get a lot
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: of run support because his win loss record is below
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: five hundred. Despite pitching pretty well, he's a little bit
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: worse at home four point ninety IRA, which may be
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit worrisome, which, by the way, Priester I
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: forgot to mention Priest is actually a little bit better
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: on the road three point one eight ERA, So we
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: are fading some slight splits there, but they're not crazy splits.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: We're looking at how well these pitchers have done recently.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: And even though Priester has been uh, you know, his
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: team's been winning all his starts, uh, Toronto's been losing
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: all Goussman starts. But Goussman's been pitching better than preestern
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Gousman this month. Four point zero sixty RA isn't great,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: but he has a He has way better command this
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: month than preestar twenty seven to six strike out walk ratio,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: So Priester walked almost as many guys in his last
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: outing as Gusman has all month. Uh. Goussman in his
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: last four starts, he's left four fewer and runs and
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: all of them he's gone more six or more innings
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: in every start, going all the way back into late July,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: where he actually had two good starts at the end
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: of July too. So he is pitching pretty well. We're
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: gonna trust him. And his numbers against Milwaukee are good.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: In thirty eight at bats, it's not a huge sample,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: but fifteen to three strike out walk ratio one eighty four,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: batting average allown in five thirty three h ps, so
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: Goussman good career numbers against Milwaukee, even though they do
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: have a good offense. Toronto's offense is pretty good as well,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: even though Milwaukee is a little bit better on the road.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: Vaughn does have a home run offen. But I'm not
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: even actually sure which team would give the offensive edge.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: To be honest, Toronto is actually third in ops, so
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: you give them the offensive edge. Even though Milwaukee is
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: a little bit better on the road, their offense is
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse than that. So we are going
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: with Toronto first five innings run line in that one.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: We will also go I mean, this one looks really
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: really crazy, but we're gonna go with the Atlanta Braves
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: on the money line full game in this one plus
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: one twenty five. I think we have the better bullpen
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: with Atlanta here, man, I mean, Philly's bullpen is not
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: very good. They're down here at twenty third in bullpen, right,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Atlanta not that much better but slightly better. But then
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: we look at the bullpen, you saige, Yesterday Philly used
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday and Atlanta only used one or
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: two I think, yeah too, so Atlanta's and they didn't
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: use any of the day before that, So Atlanta has
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: a much much more rested bullpen, and they used one
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: guy the day before that, so Atlanta was actually off
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: one of those days where Philly was playing, So we
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: got a more rested bullpen for Atlanta here. That's actually
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen over Philadelphia. Yes, Philadelphia has the better offense.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia did win two to one yesterday. But Philadelphia, I mean,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: they're not on the version of a sweep yet because
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: I think the series will continue tomorrow. But they beat
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: Atlanta nineteen to four and then two to one. I
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: think Atlanta will show up to try to spoil the
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: party for once. Man. Philadelphia'll probably feeling pretty good about
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: themselves right now. They got a five game lead here. Yes,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: they do need to continue winning to make sure they
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs and whatever, and they want to win
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: the division. But Atlanta's still gonna show up with some
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: fire here man. And what we have in the starting
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup, Yes, it's a good starting pitching matchup. So
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: when I looked at this, I was like, ohing under
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna make sense here. But because of the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: bullpen scenario, and because I think the starting pitching is
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be close and it's gonna be a duel, I
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: think it makes sense to grab the underdog here. We're
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: going with Chris Sale for Atlanta. Baby. He's coming back
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: from injury. He was having a good season again before
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: he got hurt. He was on his way to potentially
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: being in the Cy Young conversation again to point five
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: two ERA one point one to six whip. He was pitching. Well,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: I know some guys are gonna be worried about playing
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: a guy that's returning from the injured list, But Chris
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: Sale is a veteran man. And as I continue to say,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: when a guy is a veteran like this and he's
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: completely used to doing rehab stuff and coming back from
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: injuring whatever, he's been doing it for his entire career, man,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: So he is so used to this, I think he's
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: gonna be pumped to just get back out there and
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: pitch against a good team. So I think you're gonna
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: get a good start out of him, and he probably
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: is gonna be extra pumped because he gets to duel
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: a really good pitcher. So I like it. I think
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Sale will be back and forth. And I did look
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: at his minor league numbers and I think they were decent.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he had like an ERA in
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: the twos. I think in like a one point two
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: whip in his rehab or whatever in triple A. So
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: he was fine. So I'm expecting him to be ready
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: to go here. Man, he's a little bit worse on
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: the road two point seven to seven e RA. Still
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: very good, obviously, And before he went down, I mean
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: he was just dominating. He was in complete form. Before
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: he went down. He allowed one or zero earned runs
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: and six straight starts had allowed one or two, one,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: two or zero in runs going all the way back
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: into April before he went down in late June, so
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: he was totally an ace. And his numbers against Philly,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: even though they have a good offense and they're familiar
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: with him, he does well against them, two and one
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen at bats, forty eight to six strike
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, nice, very nice ratio, two thirty seven average,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: allowed six to fifty six to oh ps. So Sale
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: holds them down. Man, he's a fire Sale. We're gonna
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: be a fading Christopher Sanchez here, though, Man, I get it,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: it looks difficult to do that. I understand that the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: under does make sense at least in the first five
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: innings of this game too, because Sanchez is having a
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: really good season for Philly two point six six ERA,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: one point one to three WHIP and now the burden
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: is really on him now that Zach Wheeler is gone
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: for the season, which is really gonna hurt the Phillies rotation.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: So maybe the pressure is gonna mount on Sanchez, man,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: because this is the first season that he's actually had
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: to be like his team's ace, because usually it is Wheeler.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if the pressure is gonna mount
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: on him a little bit. Yes, he is better at
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: home two point three eighty RA. He's been good this
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: month three point one to three ERA and thirty four
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk ratio. However, his last outing
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: wasn't good against the Mets. He gave up six orred
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: runs in five and a third three walks for strikeouts,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: so he's had multiple walks in his last two outings.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: Does that mean that he's sliding out of form a
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: little bit? I don't think I would necessarily say that
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: because he's good enough that you'd think he would bounce back.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: But his numbers against Atlanta are actually not very good.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: In seventy five career bats, nineteen to four strike a
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is good, but they have a three twenty
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: average against him, eight thirty four. Oh ps Olsten has
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: to him runs off him, and a Kunya is a
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: home run off him, and he is back. So Akunya
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: should be in the lineup tonight as well. So or today? Wait,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: this is no, no, this is a night you know,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: it's like this is after noon game. No, the only
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: after noon game haves the Milwaukee Toronto one. Uh. Yeah,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: So I like the Brave here, man, I'm looking at
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: the market read here with the Braves eighty four percent
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: of tickets and cash on Philly, and they've dropped for
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: minus one forty two to minus one thirty eight. So
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: it seems like the the market read is on uh Atlanta.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: Here the money coming in. The money's coming in on
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: the under as well. It's on seven and a half
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: juice to the under fifty seven percent of tickets on
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the over eighty two percent of the cash in the under. U.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with it. Uh but again, Sanchez's matchup
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: numbers are batting itinst Atlanta, which leads me to want
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: to actually grab Atlanta on the money line dog price instead,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: plus with the bullpen rest advantage there if you go
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: under probably under first five innings, because I don't know
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: if their Philly bullpen is really totally trustworthy there or
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: either bullpen necessarily really uh so I could see that,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: but you have to go under about three and a
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: half in the first five, which is a little bit
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: more difficult to do. By the way, I forgot to
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: mention Toronto looks like they are an anti public home
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: favorite as well in that game, So that's a good
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: market indicator there. Two on that game, seventy to nine
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only sixty two percent of the cash,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: and they're down to minus one thirty nine. They're on
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: the money line. So that's a good sign there for Toronto.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: We got to get through this man. Next up, we're
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: gonna go under in the first five innings under the
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: four and a half Cardinals reds. It's at minus one
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: twenty out there. I know it's a bit of a
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: price to lay on this one, but I think the
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: starting pitching should be good here. The money's coming in
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: that way, it looks like as the total did flip
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the under, even
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: though you have fifty three percent of tickets and fifty
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on the over for the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: full game. And I do understand that we're looking at
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark here. Saint Louis does have the
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here. Their bullpen rest is bad, though, which
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: is why I want to exclude the bullpens, because they
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: used almost all their relievers yesterday. Cincinnati's bullpen is very,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: very rested here. So the Cincinnati side also makes some
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: sense in this game to me. Cincinnati, I mean, they've
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: been playing some bad baseball too, and they're still in
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: the hunt, but they've fallen off. Man. They if they
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: want to try to make a wild card, this is bad.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: They've lost four games in a row, including yesterday and
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: home to Saint Lewis, but they were coming out a
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: big series against the Dodgers, so Cincinnati does need to
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: write the ship. It does make sense to look towards
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati here as well, but I think the under first
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: five makes more sense in this one. And Saint Louis
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: you know, they don't really have a whole lot to
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: play for other than spoiling it for Cincinnati. But I mean,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: who's Cincinnati really for Saint Louis. But the starting pitching
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: is what I'm looking at. Cincinnati. By the way, they
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense as well, so that's another
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: advantage to Cincinnati in this game. Even though Saint Louis
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen, the bullpen rest scenario kind of
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: throws that out the window. But starting pitching Michael McGreevey
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: four point four to three ERA, one point one to
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: nine WHIP for Saint Louis. He is way better on
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: the road though, the three ERRA on the road, and
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: he's been in better form this month with a three
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: point ninety RRA and twenty one to four strike a
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: walk ratio along four fewer earned runs in every outing.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis has won four of his five outings and
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: he's gone six innings in every single one of them,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: so he's actually in better form right now. And the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: Reds have never faced McGreevy before, so I think that
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: might be a spot where McGreevy will come out and
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: pitch well enough to get us a low total here
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: early in the game, so I like that aspect of it.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: And he's going up against Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati has
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: been really good this season, two point six two ERA,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: one point one whip, having an ace like season. Man,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: he's been even better at home, even though it's a
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park. He's got a two point oh one
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: ERA at home. Yes, he had a bit of a
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: struggle last time out against Arizona, gave up six n
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: runs and four innings. It was on the road, though,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: and he still had six strikeouts no walks. He hasn't
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: walked anybody since his start on August sixth, so three
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: straight starts with no walks at all. So he's still
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: in good form, even though it four point six to
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: two ERA looks bad this month. His other start, he
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: gave up some runs at Wrigley Field, but those are
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: good offenses. Man Saint Louis is not as prolific of
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: an offense as either of those, and he's back at
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: home here. He has a twenty two to two strikeout
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: walk ratio this month still, so that's fine. And even
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: though yes, his inning ramping up, he threw more innings
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: in this last year, so he's still not really at
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: the edge there yet. I mean, maybe after this start
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: you might be looking towards Abbot, maybe wearing down a
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: little bit, but he hasn't reached that point quite yet,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think. And against Saint Louis he's pretty much dominated, well,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: not dominated because his walk numbers aren't good, but fifty
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: eight at bats one seventy two average, allowed five sixty
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: six ohps in a twelve to eight strike a walk ratio.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: So he's been good against Saint Louis in his career.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: So we are going to go under in the first
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: five and that one, hopefully it gets there even though
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: we're paying more. Richmond is a plus two forty under.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking at any of those FCS teams really, man,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: except for celt Dakota. Yeah, the Braves are going on
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: a scaloping mission. Who's Richmond even playing, man, I mean,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: I just don't even bother paying any attention to it,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: even though there might be some value there. My final
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: play is going to be another first five under four
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: and a half. You get a better price on this one,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: and it's Yankees White Sox, and that's probably because the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: Yankees are the Yankees, and we know they can hit.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: So the Yankees obviously have a good offense, but the
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: White Sox do not. And I think the starting pitching
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: is gonna get us to this under man, we won't
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: trust the bullpen's although the Yankees are a little bit
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: more of a rested bullpen here, the White Sox less
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: rest The White Sox bullpen is actually worse than the Yankees.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: But neither bullpen is that good. So we're just gonna
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: go first five innings here. We're gonna look at the
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, but it's between two rookies who I
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: think are under the raidar. They're both from Massachusetts too,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: so Cam Schlittler, the trader going for the Yankees here.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: Two point seven six ERA, one point three whip on
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: the season. I know his whip is a little bit high,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: but he's been good on the road two point one
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: six ERA on the road, and this month he's starting
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: to pitch better with a one point six three ERA
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: thirty one to ten strike a walk ratio high strikeout rate.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: It's still too many walks, but I mean, I think
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: he can get that under control a little bit. He
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed to run in his last two outings he's
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: allowed one, two or fewer in runs, and all of
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: his out this entire month. For his entire career, which
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: is just this year, he's allowed three or fewer earn
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: runs in every outing. He's getting better. The White Sox
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: are gonna be an easy draw for him too. In
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: the White Sox not only are their terrible offense, but
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: they've never seen Schlitler before, so he's in good form.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: He should pitch well against this bad lineup. They're unfamiliar
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: with them, so that should be a way to go.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: Shane Smith is pitching for the White Sox here three
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: point eight seven e RA one point two to three WHIP.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: His numbers are pretty good in his young career as well,
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: also in Massachusetts. Guy, I'll give him a pass for
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: pitching for a Chicago team though he is not a trader,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: and he has better splits as well. He has a
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: three point three to one ERA at home, so that's
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: a good sign. And he had a good start to
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: the season. He hit a bit of a lull kind
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: of around when he was about to pitch in the
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: All Star Game, and then this month he's actually been
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: better again with a two point six to three e ra. Yes,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: his walk rate is too high, just like Schlitzler twenty
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts, eleven walks. He's got to get that walk
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: number down. But he's allowed more than four, more than two,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: and runs only once this entire month, which is a
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: four run outing against Atlanta. He might be wearing down
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit because he is a rookie, but we
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: only need him to get us through the first five
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: innings basically in this one, so hopefully he can do that.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: The Yankees have never seen it before except except McMahon
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: is zero for one with a walk against him. So
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: we have two completely unfamiliar starting pitchers here too that
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: are both pretty solid rookies. So this it looks like
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: a first five under to me. Man money coming in
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: in the under total went down from nine to eight
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. Well though it was never really a nine.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: It was nine. Juice to the under would have been
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: maybe better. Well that's for the full game, though, so
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: I think the whole way you could get the four
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: and a half on the first five anyway, seventy eight
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on the over, sixty six percent of the
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: cash on the under, So we were going first five
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: inning under in that one Lee High. I have no
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: clue what's going on in that game. Man. It sounds
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: like a basketball game to me. I don't know what
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: goes on in the FCS. So that's gonna do it. Man,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: once again, all my plays to a college football. Texas
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: plus the three, even though I know you have to Yeah,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: you can't get the good number anymore on that South
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: Dakota plus sixteen, Clemson minus three and a half or
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: I think minus four. You have to do now and
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: then tomorrow. Miami plus three Miami Florida Baseball. We got
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto Blue Jay's first five innings run line minus a
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: half run, Atlanta Braves full game money line plus one
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: twenty five, Saint Louis, and Cincinnati under the total in
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: the first five innings under the four and a half
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: at a little bit of extra juice though, and also
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: under the four and a half at a better price,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: Yankees White Sox. So those are the best, Sorry, best bets.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: I forgot to say the best bets man. And I
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: also have a new breakdown video too. I was gonna
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: say that's that's the breakdown, a new breakdown image there.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: So I gotta I gotta remember to use my images. Man.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: But before I get out of here, let's just double
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: check the college football. If you want to see my
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: analysis for those games, please go. I'll watch my video
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: from last night Texas. You can actually get it plus
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: one and a half right now. They do have the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: money still coming in on them, seventy percent of tickets,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash, So that one is
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: still looking decent for me, even though the public is
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: also there. Iowa States down to fifteen now, I still
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: pretty much like it, and anything higher than fourteen and
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: a half or higher the two touchdown threshold, it just
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: looks too easy to take Iowa State, even though we
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: do see some of the money coming in on them,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent taket sixty four percent of the cash.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: I just think it's a terrible spot for Iowa State,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: one of the worst spots that exists this week, to
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: be honest. And then we got a Clemson O. They're
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: up to four. The money has come in on them,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: so I know we're seemingly kind of on like a somewhat,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: we're seemingly on public sides, and we're going against a
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: cash percentage in some of these But I think it's
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: just the way that it is. Man. The money is
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: coming on Clemson sixty one percent ticket sixty six percent
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on them, and then we
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: do have Miami is tomorrow, so I don't really need
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: to be labor that. But they're an anti public home underdog,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: which you know, I do like to jump on those,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: especially in spot like games. Sixty three percent ticket's only
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on Notre Dame. There,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for me, man. Learn to toad
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, on Instagram, better off Dead, like, subscribe to
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: the channel, do all the things covered in yuke my
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube as well. You can check that out.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: Better Off Dead is also on the audio platforms, so
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: give me a good review over there, and then Patreon,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: dot com, slash and learn to Toad. I gotta up
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: keep it, man. I feel like I have way too
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: much stuff to do all the time. But I gotta
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: get the yuke stuff, you know, the stuff. It's easy
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: to just post it on Twitter, but the stuff, I
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: gotta get all that stuff on those other channels and whatever.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: So gotta do that. Gotta get my college football picks
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: into my Pick'm pools as well, so I gotta get
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: that done. Have a good day. I have a great day,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: actually to all of you. Peace out. I almost flipped
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: everybody off, but that was not a middle finger, but
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: peace out everybody. Thanks everybody for hanging out this morning.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Let's get some wins today and peace