Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / BIG GAME PREVIEW: AUBURN VS TENNESSEE
Transcript
- Jackson: Alright, next game, Auburn coming off a win. First home win in ages against sorry. First home win versus the SEC team in a while. Davis: Yeah yeah. Jackson: They get the win against Fandy. Tennessee comes off a close loss on the scoreboard to Texas. That game was not as close as the score reads. Tennessee opens as a seven-point favorite over-under set at 54 and a half. And I will let Mr. Auburn man go on his rant, Davis, take it away. Davis: So we saw what Tennessee's offense looked against a really good defense last week. Tennessee gave up ten sacks to Texas, five of those being to Colin Simmons. And I wouldn't even say most of those sacks were on the O line. Faison Brandon struggled with holding on to the ball too long, kinda scrambled when he didn't need to, tried to extend plays instead of getting rid of the ball. So that was that was the biggest kind of issue I saw with Tennessee's defense or Tennessee's offense. However, Tennessee's defense was pretty impressive. their defensive tackle, Xavier Gilliam, was an absolute game wrecker against Texas last week. he is seventh in the league in tackles for loss. And I know I've just kind of gone through this whole recap rant about Texas versus Tennessee, but I think it does apply to this Auburn, Tennessee matchup. One thing that Auburn has struggled with is on their O-line. They're giving up the fourth most sacks in the P4 per game. Got a little better last week, only only took one sack against Vanderbilt, but that is an area that, Auburn's O line as well as their quarterback struggles with. Tennessee is second in the power four and sacks. So that's one area of concern is how is Auburn's O line gonna hold up against Tennessee? I don't feel great about that. But I think that is where the really the score will be felt here. Jackson: Yeah, so to me you see the passing yards per game that Tennessee averages at one ninety seven. obviously that number is skewed a little bit by the Texas game last week, but with that being said, I think this is the game where things are gonna really open up for Faison Brandon. Auburn's pass defense allows two hundred and thirty eight point eight yards per game. that ranks a hundred and seventieth in the nation. I just think it's a matchup that it's it's a it's a defense that matches up well for Faison Brandon. I think it's the game where he's gonna really you know let it rip. you're coming off a loss, a team where you played a really good defense, Auburn on the other hand, you know, the defense isn't terrible. The game against Florida I think can be excused now given what they just did to Ole Miss, but it's a more gettable defense if if you're the Vols. So I think they air it out. I think they score some points and I think Tennessee gets it done this week. Davis: Yeah, I think this'll actually be a low scoring game. I think Auburn's defense actually matches up pretty well with Tennessee's offense. one thing that Texas was able to do that really gave face on Brandon problems is they'd they'd show different looks. Sometimes they'd blitz five, sometimes they'd actually leave Colin Simmons as like a spy because they'd know that Faison Brandon would kind of get happy feet and scramble out, which is what he did, and is how Colin Simmons actually accumulated a couple of his sacks. That's something that Auburn actually does a lot with Xavier Atkins, their all-American linebacker. I believe that he is top five in tackles for loss. He plays off-ball linebacker, but they blitz him a lot. I think that Auburn's defense will be able to. Kind of contain Tennessee's offense, but I just have no faith in Auburn's offense against that defense. I think that. Auburn really hadn't been up been able to run the ball, which is unfortunate. And Byron Brown has had a tendency to turn the ball over. I think that that could really be the difference in the game here, especially given that he's gonna be under a lot of duress early. I don't wanna do it, but I think that Tennessee covers the seven, especially with it being a home game. Jackson: Yeah, I I guess I wanna walk back what I said about Faison Brandon. I I don't think he's just gonna throw it all over the field on Auburn, but I think with Tennessee's rushing attack, I think that's gonna open up a lot of these windows for him to throw the ball. so I think that's kind of where they're gonna get their points. I think they're gonna be able to run the ball decently well and I think that's gonna open up a lot on the back end for Faison Brandon and he'll be able to exploit the weakness of the Auburn defense, which is secondary. So I'm with you though. I think it's a lower scoring game. I don't see Auburn's offense having a lot of success. do you think the coaching, like the familiarity with Josh Heipel and Alex Gullish has anything to do with I mean, obviously it has something to do with the game, but how do you think that impacts this game? Like what do you think is the is the main area? Like you think they'll be able to stop each other's offenses easier because they're so familiar with them or How do you think how do you think that plays out? Davis: I think there's definitely a narrative factor Jackson: Yeah. Davis: people love to talk about you know, Gullish really wants to win this one, so they're gonna try harder. I try not to buy into any of those things. If if you need a any extra motivation for an SEC game, then you're probably playing the wrong sport. So I I don't really buy into these narratives that the team is gonna play harder. I hope that 'cause To me, that kind of implies that a team's not playing as hard in other instances, which is the case sometimes, but for an SEC game the season is not lost, then no, I'm not buying into that. Jackson: I agree. Davis: when it comes to who has the like schematical advantage. I I kind of go back and forth. I can see it both ways, which honestly kind of leads me to I don't think either one of them have the schematical advantage. Jackson: Let me get it Davis: Hypel's offense has kind of changed a little bit in the last few years. He's he's using a lot of two tight end sets, kind of slowing it down, which is new compared to what Tennessee used to do three, four years ago when Golish was the OC. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Auburn, however, is running at the quickest pace in college football. something that does look more like Tennessee's offense from a few years ago. So maybe that means that Hypel and Tennessee have the advantage because Golish is still running that offense that he ran from a few years ago, and Hypel has kind of reinvented himself a little bit. So I guess to answer your question, no, I don't really think that there's a clear advantage, but if you made me choose, I'd probably go the hypal side. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I I think I think I would agree with that. Davis: I hope I'm wrong. I for what it's worth, I am one and three for Auburn games against the spread. So I think last season I had a really good pulse on how Auburn would do against the spread. And I know that we didn't do a podcast, so it's just completely on whether or not you believe me. But I think I I think I was I think I was 11 and 1 against the spread for Auburn last year. So had Jackson: Wow. Davis: a pretty had a pretty good feel. This year, it's been the opposite. Hopefully that trend continues. I would love to be wrong about this, but I I think I I think if I had to give a score prediction, I'd say twenty one thirteen. Jackson: Wow. You think it's allowed scoring? You Davis: I do think it's that low sworn. Jackson: think Auburn holds them to twenty one points at home? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I'm gonna go twenty seven seventeen. That's my that's my score prediction. I think Tennessee's able to get it going a little more home. I think, you know, to me it's it's a kind of a must win game for Tennessee. And it's a you know, if if you win this game and you're Auburn, you kinda turn not that things are going off the rails. I mean you have one loss you know, to a very good team, but it is a big pick me up if you can steal this game on the road if you're Auburn, so and if you're Tennessee it's one that you can't really afford to lose at home. so interesting dynamic in the game here. Davis: I thought about making the under one of my plays of the week here. Jackson: We're both I guess our score predictions are both pretty heavily leaning under. Davis: But Yeah. Given given the fact that I have been all Jackson: I guess my I'm right on it. Sorry, I had to correct my math there so people don't flame me in the comments. Thirty seven seventeen, that's Davis: Fifty four. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, it's fifty four. I'm barely under. Wow. I'm right on it with these with these over unders. Davis: God, thirty seven, seventeen? Or Jackson: No, twenty seven, seventeen. Davis: yeah, okay, yeah, yeah. Twenty seven seventeen is fifty four, yeah. That that's probably what the implied Jackson: Yeah, no, it is. Hundred percent. I did the same thing with the other one. I didn't even mean to. The other game, I don't remember which one it was, one of the ones we we did a minute ago, but Davis: Yeah, twenty four thirteen that's pretty damn low. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty low. So that's Iowa game low. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: but all right, we'll move on.