Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Jerome Powell UNLEASHES the Money Printer… So Why Did Bitcoin Dip?! | Simply Originals

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Jerome Powell UNLEASHES the Money Printer… So Why Did Bitcoin Dip?! | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Well, Jerome Powell took to the stage and delivered one of the
• 0:03
  most dovish and bullish FOMC speeches in a long time.
• 0:07
  The stage was set for Bitcoin to blast off and then we dip below
• 0:13
  90K. Well, today we're going to
• 0:16
  dissect the key points from Powell speech yesterday,
• 0:19
  breaking down just how bullish it really was, and explain why
• 0:24
  the bull market hasn't even begun yet.
• 0:28
  But that's not the only insanity happening.
• 0:31
  Big news out of that cesspool in Washington DC.
• 0:35
  Remember when Trump said this? And tonight, I'm also making
• 0:39
  another promise to protect Americans from government
• 0:41
  tyranny. As your president, I will never
• 0:44
  allow the creation of a central bank digital currency you know
• 0:48
  about. Well, it's time to stand on
• 0:53
  business because Republicans are accusing House leaders of
• 0:57
  breaking their promise to ban a CBDC.
• 1:01
  And while the Fed Prince and the state moves toward tyranny,
• 1:04
  Bitcoin is preparing to Rage Against the machine in a massive
• 1:08
  way. Tonight, we're going inside the
• 1:11
  mind of a Fed chairman, breaking down the doors of digital
• 1:15
  dystopia and preparing ourselves for the bull run of a lifetime.
• 1:19
  This ones not for the faint of heart.
• 1:27
  So yeah, Jerome Powell walked up there, delivered the most dovish
• 1:30
  FOMC speech he's ever given, arguably, and instead of
• 1:35
  blasting off, Bitcoin dips under 90K.
• 1:38
  Again, I know makes zero sense on the surface, but once you
• 1:43
  decode what Powell really said, you realize the entire thing is
• 1:47
  1 giant green light or the next Bitcoin super cycle.
• 1:52
  Let's break it down. the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points.
• 1:55
  Everyone expected that, but here's the real story.
• 1:58
  QT ended December 1st. He bill purchases begin December
• 2:02
  12th. 40 billion per month. Powell says this isn't QE, it's
• 2:08
  just reserve management. Meanwhile, Bitcoin red candle.
• 2:12
  But the real fireworks came during Jay Powell's Q&A session.
• 2:16
  Powell's unscripted confession the system broke.
• 2:20
  He admitted the real reason the Fed is restarting T bill
• 2:24
  purchases. Quote, the federal funds rate
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  ticked up quicker than expected. Translation, QT broke the
• 2:31
  plumbing, then Powell tried to soften it.
• 2:34
  We are resuming reserve management purchases.
• 2:37
  Fed speak for inject liquidity or something snaps.
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  Then he delivered the knockout line.
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  Quote, there's a secular need to grow reserves. 40 billion per
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  month brother. That's not neutral policy,
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  that's life support. No healthy system needs a $40
• 2:53
  billion a month IV drip while the mid curvers scream.
• 2:57
  But it's not quantitative of easing.
• 2:59
  Well, they're printing money, they're monetizing the deficit.
• 3:03
  It's QE light. The label doesn't matter.
• 3:07
  So why did Bitcoin dip again? Because in 2025 Bitcoin has
• 3:12
  developed a pattern. Every FOMC meeting equals post
• 3:18
  Fed dip. Six of the last 7 meetings draw
• 3:23
  downs ranging from a few percent to nearly 30%.
• 3:27
  You can literally just put yellow lines on the chart.
• 3:30
  Bitcoin recoils like a spooked horse after Powell speeches.
• 3:34
  But the dips are getting shallower, liquidity conditions
• 3:38
  are turning, and the bull market hasn't even started yet.
• 3:43
  Oh, and would you look at that, Tom Lee just dropped a little
• 3:46
  bombshell on CNBC. Roll it so the ISM moving back
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  above 50 has historically been associated with actually super
• 3:54
  cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum You.
• 3:56
  Hear people saying QE is coming, the liquidity is coming, buy
• 3:59
  Bitcoin or buy whatever crypto asset or or buy stocks because
• 4:03
  this is coming. So it's important to know
• 4:04
  whether it's coming or not. Comes.
• 4:06
  From the banks. There.
• 4:07
  But yeah, in the crypto world, QT was draining liquidity.
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  So the ending of QT is essentially QE because if
• 4:17
  they're just holding the balance sheet flat, they are still going
• 4:20
  to be essentially adding liquidity to the system just to.
• 4:22
  Maintain the size. Yes.
• 4:24
  And so that is why I think crypto prices have risen in
• 4:28
  anticipation of this meeting. So do crypto prices keep going?
• 4:32
  Do you have a a bullish view still on small caps?
• 4:35
  If we're finally going to get that rate coming down a little
• 4:37
  bit, where should people look for alpha or or outperformance?
• 4:42
  Yeah. I mean, like 2026 is a year like
• 4:47
  there's a new Fed, right and but a dovish tilt and at a time when
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  the ISM has been below 50 for a record more than three years.
• 4:57
  So that's really good for small caps.
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  And as Barry says, if they deregulate banking and we were
• 5:02
  talking about this offline, that's really good for small
• 5:05
  caps, but that's also really good for the business cycle.
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  And we're we've talked about this in some of our past
• 5:12
  research. Crypto prices are really
• 5:14
  sensitive to the ISM. So the ISM moving back above 50
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  has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves
• 5:21
  in Bitcoin and Ethereum. ISM going into expansion
• 5:24
  territory is positive for Bitcoin and correct.
• 5:27
  Interesting, yeah. And so if you look at ISM and
• 5:30
  Bitcoin and you D trend Bitcoin essentially look at its distance
• 5:35
  from the 208, it's almost perfectly correlated to the ISM
• 5:38
  surprising and the same thing with copper to gold prices.
• 5:41
  So copper is an industrial metal versus gold is a monitor.
• 5:44
  Right. But all of that tells you that
• 5:45
  it's basically just risk on that they're all behaving like an
• 5:48
  economy. And is that am I over character?
• 5:50
  I think that's, I think that's right.
• 5:52
  I think Bitcoins a bit of a chameleon because they're
• 5:55
  they'll probably be a time when it it acts like gold.
• 5:58
  But right now it acts a lot more like it's sensitive to monetary
• 6:02
  policy and the business cycle and both are about to turn up.
• 6:05
  So that would mean anybody who thinks the Bitcoin for your
• 6:09
  cycle means crypto prices are down next year, we're betting
• 6:12
  against that thinking that new highs come early like.
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  Genuine, he said Bitcoin is highly sensitive to ISM, and
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  when ISM moves above 50, Bitcoin has historically entered super
• 6:25
  cycle mode. This isn't a halving story, it's
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  a business cycle story. Powell even hinted the economy
• 6:32
  may accelerate next year. Let's go ahead and simplify it.
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  the Fed cut 25 basis points. They're going to be buying 40
• 6:39
  billion in T-bills and they say the purchases will continue for
• 6:43
  months. They admit the labor market is
• 6:45
  weaker then reported. They say job gains overstated by
• 6:49
  60,000 and this is a big one. Powell said no one is
• 6:53
  forecasting rate hikes and says rate cuts are meeting to meeting
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  and they show 2026 growth improving.
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  This is a clear directional turn away from restrictive policy
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  toward risk asset support with liquidity quietly flowing.
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  Bitcoin under 90K noise, a macro shakeout.
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  A continuation of the same 2025 pattern.
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  Underneath it all, the foundation for the next
• 7:21
  explosive Bitcoin run is being hoard by Powell himself.
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  But while Powell turns the liquidity hose back on,
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  Washington is quietly trying to clamp down on your financial
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  freedom. And here's where things get a
• 7:35
  little dark fast. You remember when Trump said
• 7:38
  this? Vote.
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  As your president, I will never allow the creation of a central
• 7:43
  bank digital currency. Well, it's time to stand on
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  business because Republicans are now accusing their own
• 7:51
  leadership of breaking the promise to ban CBDC's in the new
• 7:55
  defense bill. This was supposed to be
• 7:57
  ironclad, guaranteed delivered. Instead they slipped it out the
• 8:03
  back door. The House passed a nearly $900
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  billion NDAA. But the long promise, CBDC
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  prohibition gone. Representative Keith Self came
• 8:14
  out swinging. Quote.
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  Conservatives were promised explicitly that strong anti CBDC
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  language would be included. That promise was broken.
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  Self tried to restore the CBDC ban.
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  Leadership refused. It didn't even make it out of
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  the Rules Committee. Never went to the floor.
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  The ND A A is 3000 plus pages, the place Congress buries
• 8:35
  controversial policy when language disappears.
• 8:39
  It's not an accident. Back in the summer, House
• 8:42
  conservatives refused to move forward on crypto bills unless
• 8:45
  the NDAA included ACBDC ban. Leadership promised it would.
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  Trump's team applied pressure. The GOP base demanded it.
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  Then committee revisions, markups, quiet edits.
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  The ban vanished. Marjorie Taylor Green didn't
• 9:02
  hold back. Quote, I support digital assets,
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  but I will never support giving the government the ability to
• 9:08
  turn off your money. The early drafts banned Fed CBDC
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  testing, Fed CBDC development, Fed CBDC issuance, Fed accounts
• 9:18
  for individuals. All that's gone.
• 9:21
  That wasn't sloppy drafting. That has to be intentional.
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  What happens next? Well, yes, the stand alone anti
• 9:29
  CBDC act passed the House earlier this year, but it's
• 9:33
  gathering dust in the Senate. Representative Self says
• 9:36
  financial freedom isn't negotiable, and he's right.
• 9:39
  Because CBDC's, digital ID's, social credit systems, they are
• 9:43
  1 architecture, 1 system of control, and we're not going to
• 9:48
  let Congress memory hole. This one, he said the wonderful
• 9:52
  thing about central bank digital currency is inflation is no
• 9:56
  longer a problem. If you have inflation, you just
• 9:58
  freeze everybody's bank accounts.
• 10:00
  Isn't that wonderful? OK, OK, so central bank digital
• 10:06
  currency, central bank digital, the important thing to
• 10:10
  understand about central bank digital currency in an all
• 10:13
  digital financial system is it's it's not a currency, it's a
• 10:18
  control grid. Now the process to implement
• 10:22
  central bank digital currency around the world is being
• 10:25
  overseen by the Bank of International Settlements in in
• 10:28
  Basel, Switzerland. And the Bank of International
• 10:32
  Settlements is owned by its members.
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  The New York Fed and the Fed are both the Board of Governors or
• 10:36
  both shareholders and the BIS. 63 of the top central banks are
• 10:41
  in the BIS and they are running a process with a major
• 10:44
  partnership with the Federal Reserve to implement CBDC's in
• 10:48
  their prototyping around the world.
• 10:50
  In 2020, October 2020, there was a panel at the IMF on IMF on
• 10:56
  cross-border payments. Jay Powell, chairman of the
• 10:58
  Federal Reserve was there. Augustine Carson's was there and
• 11:02
  Augustine Carson's said the following.
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  And, and I'm going to play this for you in a second, but I want
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  you to know I was basically raised and trained to be a
• 11:11
  central banker. I was asked to be a governor of
• 11:13
  the Federal Reserve and decline. So, but I was raised that way.
• 11:16
  And one of the things you're raised to understand is you
• 11:19
  never, ever you use pretzel talk.
• 11:22
  You never explain clearly what you're going to do.
• 11:24
  You know, you talk in circles. And this was the first time I
• 11:28
  had ever seen a central banker in English explain exactly what
• 11:33
  they were planning on doing and why.
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  And I almost fell off my chair. And if you think I almost fell
• 11:37
  off my chair, you should have seen Jay Powell's face.
• 11:40
  OK, so here's Augustine Carson's 57 seconds explaining CBDC's.
• 11:46
  All our analysis on CBDC in particular for the use of
• 11:50
  general to the general use, we tend to establish the
• 11:54
  equivalence with cash and there is a huge difference there.
• 12:00
  For example, in cash, we don't know for example who's using a
• 12:04
  $100 bill today. We don't know who is using the
• 12:08
  1000 peso bill today. A key difference in with the
• 12:12
  CBDC is that central bank will have absolute control on the
• 12:19
  rules and regulations that will determine the use of that
• 12:23
  expression of central bank liability and also we will have
• 12:28
  the technology to enforce that. Those are those two issues are
• 12:33
  extremely important and that makes a huge difference with
• 12:37
  respect to what to what cash is. Now apparently some people think
• 12:43
  we're in the down part of the four year cycle.
• 12:47
  Wrong. Dead wrong.
• 12:48
  Because the four year cycle isn't just broken.
• 12:52
  Bitcoin has outgrown it. The four year cycle, it's dead,
• 12:56
  gone, cooked, buried next to Blackfy and three arrows.
• 13:00
  And this isn't coming from TikTok.
• 13:02
  This is coming from Bernstein, one of the biggest investment
• 13:05
  research firms on Wall Street. Quote Bitcoin is broken.
• 13:09
  The four year pattern. We are in an elongated bull
• 13:12
  cycle driven by sticky institutional demand.
• 13:16
  That sentence rewrites 15 years of Bitcoin mythology
• 13:20
  historically having euphoria blow off, 80% drawdown, nuclear
• 13:26
  winter, repeat. But now institutions don't panic
• 13:31
  sell, they don't capitulate. They don't emotionally nuke
• 13:35
  their own bags. Bernstein noted despite a 30%
• 13:39
  correction, ETF outflows were less than 5%.
• 13:42
  That is historic. That is what breaks the old
• 13:45
  cycle. And Bernstein now models 150 K
• 13:49
  IN2026200K in 2027 and $1,000,000 Bitcoin by 2033.
• 13:57
  Still very bearish in my opinion.
• 14:00
  They're getting there. Kathy Wood, you saw her
• 14:02
  yesterday, same conclusion, She said institutional adoption is
• 14:06
  smoothing out volatility. The massive crashes of 2013,
• 14:10
  1721, not likely to repeat. Vanek, Fidelity, BlackRock, all
• 14:16
  modeling structural demand curves, not having waves.
• 14:20
  What we're saying is this isn't 2013, this isn't 2017, and this
• 14:25
  isn't 2021. This is a new era as the
• 14:29
  prophetic supercycle begun. Well, we're about to bring it
• 14:32
  home and find out. But before we do, look at our
• 14:36
  legs 3-4 times maybe? I'll pump those numbers up.
• 14:39
  Those are rookie numbers in this racket.
• 14:40
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• 15:29
  Is the four year cycle debt or or is it changing?
• 15:32
  What do you think? So in a sense, actually it would
• 15:35
  be better if the four year cycle is dead, if it's better if we
• 15:39
  don't follow the four year cycles today, because in the
• 15:41
  four year cycles, usually this December will be the peak.
• 15:45
  So, but if we follow four year cycles, then the winter will
• 15:49
  probably the crypto winter will be the next year or two years,
• 15:51
  etcetera. But right now I think there's
• 15:55
  another force at play which is President Trump, which actually
• 15:59
  on my shoes there's a President Trump.
• 16:01
  You can see the other side. Yeah, great.
• 16:04
  Shoes And so I think President Trump is using stock market as a
• 16:11
  as a benchmark. So there's a rate cuts coming,
• 16:14
  there's a quantitative easing which will basically push pump
• 16:18
  the stock market. Really, we've been in macro
• 16:19
  headwinds for since 2022, right? This is the first time that
• 16:23
  we're starting to see macro turn dovish.
• 16:26
  Yeah, yeah. So I think when the stock
• 16:29
  markets do well, people have cash, people diversify their
• 16:33
  holdings and they participate in crypto as well.
• 16:35
  We've seen that and crypto is much smaller than the stock
• 16:37
  market today. So crypto is kind of tethered.
• 16:40
  So I think, I'm not sure, don't call me on this, but I think
• 16:43
  that force will be quite strong. So that force may be strong
• 16:46
  enough to offset the four year cycle, who knows?
• 16:50
  So you're saying next year bull market?
• 16:53
  We made me see a super super super cycle.
• 16:56
  He's right dovish macro rate cuts a pro Bitcoin
• 16:59
  administration to ETFs eating up supply nation states
• 17:03
  accumulating corporate treasuries stacking monthly
• 17:06
  Bitcoin AT888990K not weakness. The old model is struggling to
• 17:11
  price the new one. Every metric in the RV dormancy,
• 17:15
  supply and loss, ETF inflows, minor revenues, long term
• 17:19
  holders supply they they all say the same thing.
• 17:22
  We're in the early innings of a far longer expansion cycle.
• 17:26
  The having still matters, but it's no longer the engine.
• 17:29
  The new drivers are global liquidity, ETF accumulation,
• 17:33
  corporate adoption, sovereign reserves, strategic Bitcoin
• 17:36
  bills, monetary debasement, a pro Bitcoin White House, a
• 17:40
  Federal Reserve easing conditions and a global system
• 17:43
  wobbling under its own weight. Put simply, the four year cycle
• 17:47
  didn't break. Bitcoin broke out of it.
• 17:49
  We're entering what Bernstein, Ark, CZ and others are calling
• 17:54
  the first true Bitcoin super cycle.
• 17:57
  And if this is the beginning of a super cycle, we haven't seen
• 18:00
  anything yet. Let us know what you think below
• 18:04
  and don't forget to like, subscribe and give us a pair by
• 18:07
  sharing the sound money gospel and I'll catch you all next
• 18:09
  time. Love you guys.