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Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit) · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: What's the traded tip of the week.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: For all my investors who are worried about what's going
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: on in the market right now, I need you to
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: know that the market dropped February through March of twenty
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: twenty six this year, also twenty twenty five, twenty twenty three,
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty and twenty eighteen.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: This is the time.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: This is like preseason for investors in hedge funds before
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: the money comes in. I know there's a lot of
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: doom and gloom that's going on in the world right now,
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: but the cycle that you're seeing of the market being
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: down right now is normal. The cause in twenty three,
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: in twenty two and eighteen.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: May be different.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: But every year in the last fifteen years, I need
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: you expect for, just like we have that drop in
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: late July August, that we have February through March. Until
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: that capital starts to flowing that third week of March,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: we're going to be down. Stop worrying. It's going to
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: be okay. It's giving you a time, a generational time
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: to buy. Everything is going to be fine. The market
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: normally goes down in February.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: In March, yeah, that's important.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: I love the historical perspective because it gives context to it.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: I think when you add into what's happened in March,
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: we got caught druple witching. Right the third the first
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: quarter is ending at the end of March. You got
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: the third week of the quarter in the last month,
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: which would be on March. So that's going to happen
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: as well. But on the other side of it, right
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: when we look at the best six months to invest
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: or trade.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Usually April at the top.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: And so when you see you see opportunities like we
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: saw last week, and maybe you saw something earlier today,
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: we'll talk about it a little bit later. You positioning
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: yourself to be in these spots when April comes. We
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: saw it last year, right when we were Liberation Day.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: That happened in April, and then we saw the rebound
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: in the best six months after that.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that felt like an anomaly.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: But if you look historically, April, May June have been
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: solid month that second quarter of the year. Like you said,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: deal flows start to come in a little bit differently.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: People's quarterly report has changed.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: The end of the year's changed, sure, which is something
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: that we actually we found out about actually last week
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: it was like yo, you set when your year end
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: is right depending on when you created your business. So
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: just having historical contact is important, and understanding that we've
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: been here before is important, and understanding like look, if
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: you're going to invest, do it regularly, but keep these
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: things in mind before you make a move.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: And secondly, anytime that the VIC skits above twenty seven
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: and normally takes anywhere from a month and a half
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: to two and a half months for it to go
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: back underneath twenty one, once again, the most important chart
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: if you're going to be looking at it from a
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: technical standpoint that cannot be manipulated. We'll talk about manipulation
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: later is the VICS. So usually for me two months,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: I should expect the VIC should be back around twenty
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: which will lead into that April scenario that you talked
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: about as well. Block out the noise, like we told
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: you last week, where oil would go when to be concerned,
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: But keep your eyes on the VIX and if the
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: VIX hits twenty seven or thirty or thirty five, that's
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: a good time to buy into the top ten stocks
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: and you'll be a Okay, yeah.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We saw the VIX hit thirty six today.
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  Speaker 3: I think it closed that twenty five, which was a
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: huge swing ten points.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: On the Vix's hell of a turnaround. That's pretty pretty abnormal.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: But it happened. Yeah, it happened.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: But like you said, if you were here last week,
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: you heard those numbers. You heard ninety three fifty. I
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: talked about one ten and one twenty, and we got
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: all those ranges that quick were out of them interesting times.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: And that's why I kept saying or trade is over.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: It's priced in.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know when you guys want to talk about it,
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  Speaker 2: but man, this is a different time geopolitically in terms
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: of the market. They turned the crude market into a
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: meme stock by the time you get to chasing that move.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not hating or gatekeeping. You just didn't listen the
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: first time shot and told you what to investor in
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: from day one, Troy told you, I told you am Jin, Lily,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: cost Co, Walmart, AMD and Video.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Those are all my picture early on.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: They're still there, but you are now being used for
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  Speaker 2: the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: in y'all faces and there's nothing you can do about it.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: You have to be smarter than ever. They realize that
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: this class of investors is better than ever, and now
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: they're using that against you and getting on social media
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  Speaker 2: and people saying oil is going to go to one fifty.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Do you know that the last time that oil was
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: that two hundred was nineteen twenty nine. For every ten
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: dollars move that we have and crewed gasoline is going
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: to go up by thirty five cent, that will cripple
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: the American economy and it's already in shambles as is.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So did it feel like a test like the past couple?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, if you're on social media, if you're watching
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: the news, you hear all, you hear all, you keep
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: hearing all, you keep hearing your gas price is going
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: to go up. For the beginner, like that intermediate, maybe
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: that investor to retail investor that hasn't been through it,
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: hasn't heard it.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Did you feel like it? Maybe it was a test
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: to see what will they do?
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  Speaker 3: Will they say, hey, we're going to buy future contracts,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: want to get into one hundred or options contracts, want
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: it for it to get to one hundred. And then
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: you're sitting there Sunday night and you're like, Wow, we're
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: at one seventeen, and then you wake up at nine
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: to thirty one and you're back at ninety four ninety seven.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Did you feel like a test? I said it since
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  Speaker 2: episode seventy. Never in the history of American capitalism do
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: they come to black people and say this is an
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: investment to make. First, you gotta be as cool as
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Rashad is, sitting calm and comfortable and chill. That's the
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: biggest lesson in investing is that investors love certainty. But
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: when you have everyone saying it's going to one fifty
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: two hundred, and then people are getting excited, and then
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: you're like, Eaton's gate cheeping. I'm like, I'm trying to
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: protect you if you haven't traded the crew. Like even
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: US crew contracts used to cost eight thousand per contract.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: As of last week, the twenty four thousand, seven hundred
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: and thirty seven fifty for one contract. It's not even
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  Speaker 2: the best use of capital. The VICS, which pays five
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: times more, is twenty thousand per contract. So all of
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: a sudden, last or two months ago, it was gold
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: and everyone wanted the gold. Move now became crewe, just
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: like Trump is having a different target for every month.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: They're going to push a different financial instrument in front
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: of your face every month.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: You gotta stick to the four that you know.
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  Speaker 2: And if you haven't traded crew, if you just before,
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  Speaker 2: now's not the time to play.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: No boy. Yeah, well, let's talk about this.
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  Speaker 4: JP Morgan predicts that SMP could fall ten because of
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: the Iran war and rising oil prices. So ten percent
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: correction is what JP Morgan is is calling for.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Potentially, what do you think if we fall ten percent?
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  Speaker 2: It won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: not talking enough about the credit private credit market issue.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: not being talked about. When I was talking about on
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: stock Club call, people are asking like, Okay, is this
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: a retail issue because some retail investors have access to
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: private credit and private equity. Now KKR, Apollo arees, those
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: are not retail platforms.
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  Speaker 1: Those are institutional.
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  Speaker 2: So blue Out may be down sixty three percent, which
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: is retail facing. But when you see that aries Blackrock,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: like black Rocks stopped allowing people to withdraw money, not
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: the black Rock, but that's the first Canaria in a
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: cold moon where you're like, oh, shit, is tougher than
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: what you really think it is, and that what it's
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: reporting to be. So I think will it be a
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: combination of factors, yes, But Iran, I think it's probably
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the smallest issue on the table right now as to
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: why the stock market would drop. I think there is
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of issues around the circular investment, private credit.
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  Speaker 2: And then also the job market is in shambles and
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: no one wants to talk about it, and they keep
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: revising these numbers in line about these numbers. So I
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: don't think we have gotten the honest job report in
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: the last two and a half years. Well that's what
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say.
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  Speaker 4: As far as the job yes, there's a variety of
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: different things. The job market is in shambles, and it's
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: even worse, and it's even worse than what's being reported,
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: because you got people that's not even looking for jobs anymore.
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  Speaker 4: And then you got a variety of young people that
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: don't even know where to start to look for jobs.
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  Speaker 4: So they're not necessarily following unemployment because they just graduate
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: from college and they still trying to figure it out.
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: They're just at home with their parents just in the
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: basement watching Andrew Tait all day. Yeah, credit credit card
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  Speaker 4: debt all time high when you look at I mean,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: they quietly about to have another government shut down TSA.
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: He said, get to the airport five hours early because
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: they can't they can't pay TSA. Five hours is crazy.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: You can't even check your back more than three hours.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Housing, this is the first.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: Time I think in over ten years the rate of
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: houses that's being sold right now at like a ten
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: year low. So that means that people are not spending
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: money on real estate in the same way.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Or can afford to.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the list goes on so domestically, there's
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: economy for the average person.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I I agree with a lot of
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: the points. I agree that, well, first, ten percent is
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: pretty normal. First, and normals like if we pull back
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: ten percent, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: account is about to go to shambles. Not ten percent
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: would be an actually welcomed correction.