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Episode 50 - 5/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 50 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Thursday. Thursday, the week is coming to
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  an end. We got the weekend ahead of us
• 0:38
  here, guys. We got a lot of sports betting
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  to talk about today. It's a bit of a smaller than
• 0:43
  usual slate. There's a lot of afternoon
• 0:44
  sweats right now with Major League Baseball.
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  But I do have a three pack of plays for it today, including a
• 0:50
  bet on game two for Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. 88 broke.
• 0:54
  Don't fix it. Play, as I like to call it, with
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  a rhythm edge. I do have one bet here in Major
• 0:59
  League Baseball, bit of a bit of a big number here.
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  I think there's a good reason and good reason to lay this big
• 1:04
  number with this team tonight. And then also let's get back to
• 1:06
  the NHL. It's been a few days since we
• 1:08
  had an NHL bet and I'm seeing an edge here on one team tonight
• 1:11
  for game one of Edmonton and Dallas.
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  So a lot to get to or maybe not as much to get to.
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  Maybe that's just routine. I like to say a lot to get to,
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  but maybe a quality, not quantity day in Major League
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  Baseball. 3 bets overall. Can we go 2, two and one or
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  better and eke out a winning day?
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  That is the goal. Now looking back to our last
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  night, guys 3 and 3 - 0.6 units. Now we had some great hits with
• 1:33
  the Dallas and Minnesota over. Remember we had an over two O 6
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  1/2. That total ticked up a little
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  bit, two O 5 1/2 up to two O 6 1/2, two O 7.
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  And we had a great rhythm edge project predicting a two O 8.4.
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  So I had to sweat it a little bit late because they're on pace
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  the whole game and slow down a little bit in the first fourth
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  quarter, but came through with our over and game one of
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  Minnesota. Dallas also had a nice hit with
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  the San Diego Padres coming through Bigley as a road
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  favorite. The Yankees came through for the
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  team, which was also nice. And then our losses in baseball,
• 2:03
  again, this is what you got to deal with when you're betting
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  baseball on a daily basis. Sometimes the breaks go your
• 2:08
  way, sometimes they don't. And I would argue we had three
• 2:11
  kind of really hard bad beats last night.
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  One was the Pirates. The Pirates had a 5 nothing lead
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  halfway through the game. They cough, cough it up.
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  They get blown out in extra innings.
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  They lose 9 to 5 S Pirates, you are the weakest link.
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  Goodbye the Rays. The Rays had a three nothing
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  lead. I'm personally upset and annoyed
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  and frustrated with the Rays because I bet on them all three
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  games in the Red Sox series. All three games were pretty much
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  the same angle. Short home, favorite line move,
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  kind of contrarian, low bets, higher dollars.
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  They get swept by my Red Sox. And not only did I lose the Rays
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  every single game of the series, but I had to watch my team win.
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  And then I should be happy my Red Sox went Nope.
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  I'm upset that they lost, that they won because I had the Rays.
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  So the Rays, you stink. Goodbye.
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  And then the frustrating one was the Oakland A's because the
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  Oakland A's, if they had won the late game last night, we have a
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  four and two night, a winning night.
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  Instead, the A's tease us because they got down 2 to one
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  in the bottom of the ninth. They end up tying the game on a
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  huge hit by Zach Giloff. Then they go to extra innings
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  and top of the 10th, they go 123 and get rid of the Rockies.
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  They have an opportunity to walk it off in the 10th.
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  I believe they had the, the, the, the entire, you know, 123
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  of the A's line up. They all struck out.
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  So I'm like, OK, let's go to the 11th, the 11th.
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  They put down the Rockies 123. All you got to do is one run,
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  walk it off in the 11th. What do they do?
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  They strike out again. Then obviously the longer you
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  wait, it's like, hey, you know, someone's going to hit a bomb.
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  And it was McMahon hit a bomb for the the Rockies and the
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  Oakland A's end up losing in 12 innings.
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  But you know, it's kind of frustrating me, which I don't
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  understand. Like I get, hey, you know, you
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  want to, you know, not take the bat out of some of your best
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  players hands. Maybe they hit a home run, get a
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  base hit. But hello, have you ever heard
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  of bunting a guy over? You only need one run to win
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  Oakland A's in the 10th and the 11th.
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  Bunt them over, get them on, get them over, get them in.
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  I, I don't understand it. It's like you just strike out,
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  strike out, strike A yeah, let's just keep striking out instead
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  of moving a guy over and getting a SAC fly to end the game.
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  So anyway, the A's are frustrating because if they
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  pulled that out, which they should have, we have a winning
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  night. But either way, guys continue to
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  grind here in the arena. So let's get right to our sweats
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  for tonight. And I want to start off with the
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  NBA because we have Game 2 Pacer Celtics.
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  This is what I call an ain't broke don't fix it play.
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  So remember last game we took the over, we had a good rhythm
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  edge. That line ticked up a little
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  bit. We beat the closing line pretty
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  good and end up catching that over.
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  Well, I'm going right to the well with the over once again,
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  give me the over 224 1/2. Now I'm not going to call this
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  the sharpest play in the world because the line hasn't moved
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  too much. You do have majority bets going
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  over it pretty much open 224 1/2.
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  It stayed 224 1/2. So if you tell me like the under
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  line freeze public betting over yet it hasn't hadn't hasn't
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  moved, I'm not going to argue with you.
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  But here are a couple reasons why I'm going to take the over
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  here for tonight. One is that if you dig a little
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  bit deeper into the line history, not just look at what
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  the number open at what it is currently, but what were the
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  moves in between. A lot of moves in between were
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  touching 225. So it's not like this was 224
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  1/2 down to 224 back up to 224 1/2.
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  It was either the same ticked up or came back down, but it never
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  dropped based off the opener. So it's either stayed the same
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  or risen. So it gives me the kind of the
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  idea here inferring based on this line movement that hey,
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  there is a little bit of liability over.
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  Secondly, we do have a low bets, higher dollars bet split to the
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  over. Now it is public 73% of bets at
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  DraftKings are going over, but it accounts for 77% of the
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  money. So that is a little bit low bets
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  higher dollars. Again, I'm not going to, you
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  know, make the case this is a, you know, 30% bets, 80% money.
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  It's not massive, but you do have more money than bets, which
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  is a good sign. But I'm really going to go down
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  with the ship with the Celtics, Pacers overs because really the
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  style of play, if you look at both these teams, we talked
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  about this in game one and we cashed our over.
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  Now it did go to overtime, but if you look at the score in the
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  last game, it was at 234 before it went to overtime.
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  Obviously, Jalen Brown hit a big three to send it to overtime.
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  But the style of play is that these are the two top offensive
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  efficiency teams in the NBA. Boston is #1 Indiana Pacers are
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  #2 so great offense, Pacers in particular #2 in terms of pace,
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  you know, a little little pun there, pun intended, Pacers
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  pace. But they're fast, defensive
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  efficiency. Indiana is only 24th.
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  They play fast. They score a lot, and they don't
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  play much defense. And the style of play not only
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  leads to, you know, up and down the court, lot of scoring.
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  And when you get into those games, it's kind of rhythm with
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  both offenses. But the other angle that I'll
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  kind of throw in here is that if you look at or if you listen to
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  kind of what Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum and some of the
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  Celtics players said after the game, they gave a lot of credit
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  to the Pacers. And they kind of kept saying
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  like they kept pushing the pace. They kept getting up and down
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  the court. And that style of play, again,
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  is a great omen for an over because if you keep going up and
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  down the court, more possessions, more opportunities
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  to score benefits, a higher scoring game.
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  But I'm going to go right back to recreating these box scores.
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  We talked about this game one or heading into game one, but these
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  teams have now played six times this year.
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  We had five regular season games.
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  We just had one postseason game. And I'll do the same thing I
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  did. When was that?
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  Monday night or Tuesday, whenever that game one was.
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  But here are the box scores between the Celtics and the
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  Pacers this year. 155 to one O four, 122 to one, 12118 to one O
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  1133 to 1:31. 1/29 to 1/24, 1:33 to 1:28.
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  That was the last game in overtime.
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  So we have averaged through five regular season games in one
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  postseason game, a combined final score total of 248.3.
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  So again, this tells me that if it sails under here, we'll say,
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  hey, public was over, line didn't really move.
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  I'm not going to call this the sharpest play in the world.
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  But this is the kind of bet where, you know, if the style of
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  play continues to scream over, you know, I'm going to go over,
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  I'm going to I'm going to continue to rely on kind of the
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  way these teams match up and play each other, leading to a
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  lot of scoring. Now, I'll throw this at you too.
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  We have some over referees, over refs, as you like to say in
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  Boston. But James Williams, Sean Wright
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  and guess who, Scott Foster, that's right, the extender now
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  he's the extender because you know, typically teams facing
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  elimination, they win, they extend the series.
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  But he's also a really good over ref, in particular Foster and
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  Sean Wright. They are around 54% historically
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  to the over. James Williams is a little bit
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  more even. He's like 51% to the over.
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  But the whole point being is that when these refs are are are
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  ref in the game, they tend to call a lot of fouls, stop the
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  clock, get some free throws, make your free throws.
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  That's really a recipe for overs.
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  So that's good that we have three over refs here for
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  tonight. And then the cherry on top is
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  our friends at Rhythm Rhythm who does a fantastic job.
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  I always mention of powering this podcast.
• 8:53
  If you haven't done it yet, go sign up for that rhythm 7 day
• 8:56
  free trial. You can just click the click the
• 8:58
  bio description inside this podcast in Spotify or you can
• 9:01
  just go to my Twitter page at Josh under score insights, my
• 9:04
  pinned tweet at the top of my Twitter page.
• 9:07
  You can sign up with that custom link.
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  But how many, how many times does rhythm have to cash for us
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  until you sign up for your free trial?
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  Give it a shot. It's not just game predictions,
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  but it's also player props. But rhythm for tonight is
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  predicting 226.2 as a final score, final total.
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  So once again, if the totals either stay the same or isn't
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  224 1/2, touch 225 back down to 224 1/2, we have a bet split to
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  the over. We have a great style of play,
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  offense, pace of play. We have all these box scores
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  that have been flying over. We have over referees.
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  We have a rhythm projection, projection prediction.
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  I just kind of created a word, a projection, a projection, a
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  predict and project. You can combine those two words
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  anyway, a rhythm prediction of 226.2 hey, that's going to cash
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  our over If rhythm is right, which they often times are a 226
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  cashes your over 224 1/2. And then I also mentioned, you
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  know, typically when we go over, we want kind of a short spread,
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  so like five points or less competitive back and forth.
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  But this Pacers team, even though the spread is like eight
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  and a half nine, I didn't see some nines fall to 8 1/2.
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  I have a couple, you know, indicators here of maybe Pacers
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  and the points being the play. That's the side I would lean,
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  but I feel more confident in the over.
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  So I'm only going over, but back and forth game competitive,
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  maybe the Pacers, you know, gain some confidence after game one
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  saying, hey, we, we actually gave that game away, come out
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  hungry, continue to put up points here today.
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  So it's kind of a quasi, you know, competitive total with
• 10:32
  again, maybe you get overtime. So add it all up, guys.
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  We got a lot of red lights here on the on the over or green
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  lights, we should say. You know, Matthew McConaughey,
• 10:40
  his book Green lights, Yeah, you see green light, man.
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  You got to go through it, man, but there are green lights.
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  That's over. Let's get some points.
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  I'm going Pacers, Celtics Game 2 / 224 1/2.
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  Now over to Major League Baseball because we have a short
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  slate here in Major League Baseball.
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  Again, a lot of day games. I'm personally on a few sweats
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  right now. Always remember to check my
• 11:01
  Twitter page at Josh under score Insights for the Sharp Report,
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  which I write for vsin.com, which you can find posted on my
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  Twitter page around noon Eastern Time each day.
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  But there's one game tonight that caught my eye and it's a
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  big number, but I think it's a good get right spot for the
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  Baltimore Orioles. So 7:40 PM Eastern Time tonight,
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  Orioles and White Sox, it's a get right spot because the
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  Orioles just got swept at the Cardinals.
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  Orioles are a really good team. I'm on their over win total 89
• 11:28
  1/2. I'm on them.
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  I think I got them +200 to the AL East.
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  Anyway, I'm a big Baltimore fan. I really like the young core of
• 11:34
  players that they have and this is a team that's kind of getting
• 11:36
  better each year. But they had a tough spot again
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  going to Saint Louis, getting swept that series.
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  I think they got a great recipe to get back on track because
• 11:44
  they are playing the worst team in baseball, the Chicago White
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  Sox. So the starting pitcher match up
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  for tonight. We have Grayson Rodriguez going
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  for Baltimore. He is four and one with a 3.15
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  ERA. He'll be opposed by Steve
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  Clevenger, or I always say Steve Clevenger, Michael Mike
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  Clevenger. Oh, and two 5.56 ERA.
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  But it's not a huge line move play because you had a lot of
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  books open. You know, I saw Baltimore like
• 12:08
  -220 up to -230 you know, some books that are like 2/22/25 have
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  stayed 225. This is another indication or a
• 12:16
  great example of shopping for the best line because I see a -,
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  220. I see a -, 230.
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  I see a -, 240. Now, First off, if you're
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  playing this Orioles game with me, it's a big number.
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  We are betting to risk, not betting to.
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  When I entertained with a a spread, play a run line.
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  So -1 1/2 Baltimore at -145 you can definitely cut that number
• 12:35
  down a little bit. I'm just going to say, hey, you
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  know, they win by one. I want to win my bet.
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  So I'm going to lay this -220 that's what I shopped around and
• 12:43
  found here. But make sure you have multiple
• 12:45
  outs and also bet to risk, not bet to win.
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  So not just big favorites, but any play you make, I would
• 12:50
  always recommend bet to risk, not win.
• 12:53
  So that means if you're playing Baltimore with me tonight at
• 12:55
  -220 you're not risking 2.2 units to win one unit.
• 12:59
  That would be betting to win. You're always betting to risk,
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  which means whatever your unit is, which is I would recommend
• 13:05
  3% of your bankroll per play. If you have 100 bucks, you're
• 13:07
  risking 3 bucks a game. Might be like Josh.
• 13:09
  What's the point of that? I'm never going to become rich.
• 13:12
  Well, sports betting you're not going to become rich.
• 13:13
  You want to grind a profit and look at it as a side hustle or a
• 13:17
  long term investment. But whole point being is if
• 13:19
  Baltimore somehow loses to the White Sox tonight, which I find
• 13:23
  very improbable, but again, baseball, anything can happen.
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  We only want to lose 1 unit, not 2.2.
• 13:27
  So let's just get that straight. But aside from a little bit of
• 13:30
  line movement toward Baltimore, I have a ton of advantages and a
• 13:33
  ton of systems on Baltimore. First, let's look at the
• 13:36
  offense. Baltimore is hitting 238 with 69
• 13:40
  home runs, 226 runs scored. The White Sox are hitting 216.
• 13:44
  Only 35 homers, 143 runs scored here.
• 13:48
  So big offense, offensive advantage to Baltimore, a lot of
• 13:52
  injuries to the White Sox. They're a terrible team this
• 13:54
  year, obviously, but they just lost Eloy Jimenez to the injured
• 13:57
  list. He was their three hitter.
• 13:59
  And then let's get to the system matches.
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  Winning team that's favored, awful loss.
• 14:03
  So you have a winning record, you're favored, you're expected
• 14:05
  to win. You're awful loss, you're
• 14:06
  looking to bounce back, 96 and 5862 percent, 5% ROI.
• 14:12
  Rd. favorite off a loss, 64 and 39 this year, 62 percent, 8%
• 14:16
  ROI. Here's another variation of kind
• 14:19
  of combining a couple systems, but a good favorite off a loss
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  versus a bad team. So a good favorite would be
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  you're above 500, you're off a loss, you're hungry, your
• 14:27
  favorite, you're expected to win, You're playing a bad team
• 14:29
  that's below 500. That's just a match is 64 and
• 14:33
  3565% and that is a 15% ROI. Then you add in one more, the
• 14:39
  Orioles cleaning up as a favorite against teams who
• 14:41
  missed the playoffs the previous year.
• 14:43
  That is 63 and 2869 percent, 14% ROI since the start of last
• 14:49
  year. Then some other supplementary
• 14:51
  factors here. Orioles 12:00 and 8:00 on the
• 14:52
  road, nothing amazing, but White Sox only 10 and 14 at home.
• 14:57
  Baltimore's plus 52 and run differential and we have a -, 1
• 15:02
  O 7 for the White Sox. They've been bad run
• 15:04
  differential. That's the worst in baseball.
• 15:06
  Also we have a correlative betting big favorite, low total.
• 15:09
  So if your amount of expected runs scored, more likely to come
• 15:12
  from quote UN quote that better team.
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  This total is basically 8 out of 8 1/2's have fallen down to 8.
• 15:17
  And then a classic non division favorite.
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  Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
• 15:22
  Rodriguez in particular, he is making his second start off the
• 15:25
  injured list for Baltimore. His first start off the injured
• 15:27
  list against Seattle. Pitched great, looked like he
• 15:30
  didn't miss a beat. 6 innings pitched, no runs allowed, seven
• 15:33
  K's. So it's a big number.
• 15:35
  I think it's big for a reason. I'm going Baltimore here again,
• 15:38
  shop round, have multiple outs, but I'm going Orioles.
• 15:41
  I got Baltimore at -220 now last bet of the night because we got
• 15:45
  a little three pack here. We just hit some NBA playoffs.
• 15:48
  We just hit some MLB. Now let's go to the NHL.
• 15:51
  Let's not forget about the NHL. I got to play here tonight.
• 15:54
  Obviously there's only one game, Edmonton, Dallas game one of the
• 15:57
  Western Conference finals, the series price, which I'm
• 16:00
  intrigued by Dallas here, they're only -125 Edmonton's
• 16:04
  plus one O 5. But fortnight in particular, I'm
• 16:06
  going to go with the Dallas Stars.
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  That's right. We want to hit our OVA tonight.
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  And also we want to root for the Dallas Stars.
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  If you're a a New England like me, even though again, I don't
• 16:16
  really have the accent, but I'm going Dallas Stars here for
• 16:19
  tonight guys, for basically 2 main reasons, goaltending and
• 16:23
  defense. So we have seen some movement
• 16:25
  toward Dallas. You know, a few books open
• 16:27
  Dallas Stars around -125 tonight.
• 16:29
  Now they're up to -130 So a little bit of, you know, $0.05
• 16:32
  of steam in favor of the Stars. Also, you look at the bet splits
• 16:36
  coming directly from draftking 65% of bets, but 69% of the
• 16:41
  money is on Dallas. So again, quote UN quote public,
• 16:44
  but also respect the money, a low bets, higher dollars bet
• 16:46
  split. Secondly, I like the rest
• 16:49
  advantage for Dallas. The Dallas Stars haven't played
• 16:52
  since the 17th, so they've been off, you know, six days
• 16:55
  basically. You look at the Edmonton Oilers
• 16:58
  had to go to game seven against Vancouver.
• 17:00
  They last played on the 20th. So they've only had a couple
• 17:02
  days off here. And I think that's important for
• 17:04
  Dallas in particular because of the goaltending.
• 17:08
  If you'll get Jake Ottinger, he has started all 13 games in the
• 17:11
  postseason. You know, I'm a, I'm a Bruins
• 17:12
  fan. This is like, you know, Jeremy
• 17:13
  Swayman playing every other night.
• 17:15
  So when you play every night and then you get 6 days off, that's
• 17:19
  huge. Especially, you know, not just
• 17:20
  your position players, you know, nursing bruises and the, you
• 17:24
  know, the rigor and the, just the ridiculous physicality of
• 17:27
  the postseason. But for your goalie in
• 17:29
  particular, that's a that's a big boost, a little extra time
• 17:32
  to, you know, re energize your batteries and get regrounded.
• 17:35
  But also, even if Ottinger wasn't so rested, this is a big
• 17:38
  reason I'm playing Dallas tonight.
• 17:39
  The goaltending advantage Ottinger this post season, 2
• 17:43
  point O, nine goals against, 9/18 save percentage.
• 17:46
  He has been great. He'll be a post tonight by
• 17:48
  Stewart Skinner, who hasn't been very good.
• 17:51
  Give him credit. He won game seven, but he has a
• 17:53
  2.87 goals against 881 save percentage.
• 17:57
  It got so bad for Skinner at one point that he was replaced by
• 17:59
  Calvin Picard or Picard. I still captain Picard, I can't
• 18:02
  even pronounce his name right. But to me, Ottinger rested great
• 18:06
  numbers against Skinner, who has bad numbers and that at one
• 18:10
  point was replaced by Picard. That's an advantage for
• 18:12
  Ottinger. You look at the just defensive
• 18:15
  mindset overall. Dallas, really tight, really
• 18:18
  sturdy, really playing their gaps technical team.
• 18:21
  So hopefully that will mitigate a little bit.
• 18:23
  Obviously McDavid and dry sidle and all the big guns for
• 18:25
  Edmonton. Of course, Dallas did play
• 18:28
  Edmonton twice this year. They won two or played, they
• 18:30
  played three times. I should say they went two and
• 18:32
  one against Edmonton. And I'll put some stock into
• 18:35
  this. You know, at home a lot of
• 18:37
  people will assume if it's hockey, oh, it's good to be at
• 18:40
  home because the crowd is behind you and cheering you on.
• 18:43
  Yes, I'm not going to say it doesn't help, but it's really
• 18:45
  about the last ice change. When you're at home, the home
• 18:48
  coach gets to see who the opposing team puts out and then
• 18:51
  they get to match up. So if it's Mcdavid's line coming
• 18:54
  out, boom, maybe you're putting in hasten in and the tan of you
• 18:57
  know, combination or or was it Lundell or who's the other guy
• 19:01
  Harley? Anyway, that's an advantage for
• 19:03
  Dallas because they can see who Edmonton puts out and then they
• 19:06
  can match up against Edmonton. And lastly, I just think it's
• 19:09
  kind of a short price on a really good Dallas team.
• 19:11
  I think we're on a collision course.
• 19:13
  Dallas Stars in the Florida Panthers.
• 19:15
  I should actually double check and see what that exact is, but
• 19:17
  I'm going to go Dallas here for tonight.
• 19:19
  Little bit of line movement, low bets, higher dollars bet split
• 19:22
  rest advantage, better goaltending, rested goaltending,
• 19:26
  and the last change for home ice.
• 19:28
  So let's go Dallas Staz. I got Dallas at -130 that about
• 19:33
  does it for today's episode, episode 50.
• 19:36
  Can you believe it? We've now reached 50 episodes of
• 19:39
  the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod.
• 19:41
  But reminder, if you enjoy this pod, if you can hear my voice #1
• 19:45
  thank you. Give yourself a pat on the back.
• 19:46
  That's what I would do. I appreciate you guys taking the
• 19:49
  time out of your day to listen to the pod to grind with me in
• 19:51
  the sports betting arena. Whether you play every game, I
• 19:54
  suggest tail fade, pick and choose doesn't matter.
• 19:57
  The fact that you pull up a chair to the virtual bar and
• 20:00
  breakdown games from a data-driven perspective, your
• 20:03
  head and not your hot. It means a lot to me.
• 20:05
  So thank you first of all. Second of all, can you help me
• 20:08
  to grow this podcast? In order to grow this pod?
• 20:11
  There's two things I ask of you. One can you refer this pod to a
• 20:14
  friend, maybe a buddy of yours or a family member or a Co
• 20:17
  worker who's into sports betting and they're sick of all the hot
• 20:20
  takes and. Yeah, play this team tonight
• 20:22
  'cause they're great with no analysis, no mention of how the
• 20:25
  line is moved, no mention of the historical situation, no mention
• 20:28
  of the bet splits. Maybe they want to get more
• 20:31
  analytical. And of course, the goal of this
• 20:32
  pot is to treat sports betting the way Wall Street traders
• 20:35
  approach the stock market. But can you refer to a friend?
• 20:39
  And then secondly, and maybe more importantly, can you please
• 20:41
  take the time to give this podcast a 5 star review?
• 20:45
  That would really, really make a big difference because the more
• 20:47
  five star reviews we get, the more we rise up the charts, the
• 20:49
  more credit we get and the more more we continue to grow.
• 20:53
  So a 5 star view, if you could get do that for this pod, that
• 20:56
  would really, really be extremely helpful.
• 20:58
  I also mentioned we just added the podcast to YouTube.
• 21:01
  So I would prefer if you kept listening on Spotify, but if you
• 21:06
  want to listen on YouTube, that is now available.
• 21:08
  It took me a while to figure out how to create an RSS feed and
• 21:13
  then link it up to YouTube. But I basically want to give
• 21:15
  listeners as many options as possible, whichever way you
• 21:18
  prefer. Like I listen to most of my
• 21:19
  podcasts on Spotify. My wife also pays for the family
• 21:23
  plan. But maybe you listen on YouTube
• 21:25
  that's now available. You can just search the all
• 21:28
  systems go podcast with Josh Applebaum on YouTube.
• 21:31
  Boom, it'll be there every day. Secondly, if you enjoy this pod
• 21:34
  and more importantly, you enjoy the breakdowns, this approach to
• 21:37
  sports betting looking at basically, you know, again,
• 21:40
  approaching betting from a data-driven perspective, looking
• 21:42
  at line movement system matches, going contrarian bet splits, all
• 21:46
  that kind of stuff, not parlaying flat betting.
• 21:49
  If this approach to betting is intriguing to you or you want to
• 21:52
  learn more than guess what I wrote a book.
• 21:55
  My book is called the everything guide to sports betting.
• 21:57
  So if you want to go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 21:59
  everything guide to sports betting and buy a copy for you
• 22:02
  or for a friend. It would mean a lot to me guys.
• 22:04
  And when, if you do buy it, when I see at the book at the Encore
• 22:07
  in Boston, the Encore and guess what, I'll sign it for you.
• 22:10
  I'll buy you beer or maybe I'll buy a ginger ale.
• 22:12
  If you don't drink, that's fine too.
• 22:14
  But first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 22:16
  We're going to post about the book.
• 22:17
  Sweat sharp and train plays all night long.
• 22:20
  So wish you the best of luck, everyone.
• 22:22
  Of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
• 22:25
  Twin River and Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 22:27
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 22:30
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
• 22:33
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
• 22:35
  desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
• 22:38
  sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible is
• 22:41
  found at the South Point or sweating sharp contrarian plays
• 22:44
  jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa When you're able to
• 22:47
  catch a big bet when the when the when the Mavs over cashes
• 22:50
  for you, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
• 22:52
  and you're going to show me that Mavs and Minnesota over two O 6
• 22:57
  1/2 last night. You're going to show me a a
• 22:59
  father's ticket, a Yankees ticket.
• 23:01
  But guess what? Pirates raise A's.
• 23:03
  All three of you bums blew it for us.
• 23:05
  Come on man, just get one of those.
• 23:07
  We have a winning night. So anyway, those pirates raise
• 23:10
  A's tickets wrap them up. Don't throw them away.
• 23:12
  Recycle them be kind to be kind to the trees, but first one's on
• 23:16
  you next one's on me. We're going to post about the
• 23:18
  book sweat sharp can train plays all night long.
• 23:21
  So wish you the best of luck. Everyone have a fantastic
• 23:23
  thirsty Thursday. Let's see if we can get two out
• 23:26
  of three tonight and have a winning night here across pretty
• 23:29
  much every sport. I'm very much looking forward to
• 23:31
  sweating the over in the Celtics game here tonight.
• 23:34
  But my parting words, as always, always remember, stay sharp,
• 23:37
  stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
• 23:40
  side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 23:42
  never against it. Will smart money one every time?
• 23:44
  Of course not. But always remember, we are
• 23:46
  playing a long game. And if we can consistently find
• 23:49
  that sweet spot, games that fit our model against the public
• 23:52
  with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get
• 23:55
  some closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
• 23:57
  to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats.
• 23:59
  Everybody have a great thirsty Thursday.
• 24:01
  I'll see you tomorrow for episode 51 on a big Friday of
• 24:05
  the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
• 24:08
  Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
• 24:10
  great day.