Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / CDU Associate Professor Andrew Taylor says the NT has a second lowest divorce rate in the country due to its young population and migration flows

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CDU Associate Professor Andrew Taylor says the NT has a second lowest divorce rate in the country due to its young population and migration flows · 360 with Katie Woolf

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  Speaker 1: You might have heard a bit earlier in the week
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  Speaker 1: that according to ABS data, territory couples so the most stable,
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  Speaker 1: with the Northern Territory recording the lowest average divorce rate
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  Speaker 1: in the country. Now joining me on the line is
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  Speaker 1: CDU Charles d Owen University Associate Professor Andrew Taylor. Good
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  Speaker 1: morning to you, Andrew.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning Katie. Great to be with you.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, great to have you on the show. Andrew, talk
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  Speaker 1: us through the numbers. First, what were the divorce figures
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  Speaker 1: for the Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 2: Ah, Yes, the curious case of the NT's low divorce rate.
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  Speaker 2: So indeed, the latest data shows that we had what's
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  Speaker 2: called a crude divorce rate, So it's just the number
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  Speaker 2: of divorces per thousand population. Ours was at one point
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  Speaker 2: nine in the latest data, whereas the rest of Australia
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  Speaker 2: was two point two. And that's quite a difference really overall.
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  Speaker 2: But two this is one of the cases where we
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  Speaker 2: really have to dig a bit deeper to get the
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  Speaker 2: real picture. So the headline in this case, I might
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  Speaker 2: be a spoiler here, but the headline it may actually
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  Speaker 2: be incorrect. And the reasons are that we have a
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  Speaker 2: couple of unique characteristics in our population and with our
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  Speaker 2: migration flows that are kind of keeping this artificially low
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  Speaker 2: on paper at least, So I can go into that
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  Speaker 2: a bit if you want.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, please do. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Well, there's two main factors in our population. One of course,
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  Speaker 2: is that we have a young population compared to elsewhere
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  Speaker 2: in Australia, and so we have a median age of
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  Speaker 2: thirty three years in the population. The rest of Australia
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  Speaker 2: is quite a bit older at thirty eight. It's a
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  Speaker 2: five year difference and it's large, and most marriages occur
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  Speaker 2: for people. Most people get married in their thirties. So
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  Speaker 2: when you think about it, we have a much larger
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  Speaker 2: proportion of people in their twenties in the NT and
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  Speaker 2: a lesser proportion in their thirties than elsewhere in Australia,
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  Speaker 2: so that the kind of probability of getting married in
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  Speaker 2: the NT to start with is lower. Yeah, right, reflected
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  Speaker 2: in that, Yeah, So we have a smaller pool of people,
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  Speaker 2: if you like, who are in peak marriage age, if
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  Speaker 2: that makes sense. That's reflected in the crewe marriage rate
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  Speaker 2: for the territory, which, as well as the divorce rate
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  Speaker 2: being lower, our marriage rate is lower at three point
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  Speaker 2: two per thousand, compared to three point five for Australia.
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  Speaker 2: In some states like Queensland, it's not at four point one.
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  Speaker 2: So Andrew also.
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  Speaker 1: Does it mean so does it not necessarily mean that
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  Speaker 1: we've actually got the lowest divorce rate.
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  Speaker 2: Well, we're second in terms of lowest after the Act.
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  Speaker 2: But it's a similar story to the Act. They're a
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  Speaker 2: very young population, very much attract early career people there
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  Speaker 2: who are less likely to get married, and then later
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  Speaker 2: on might leave the Act and go elsewhere and get married.
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  Speaker 2: And that's a clue for the second reason our divorce
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  Speaker 2: rates low. Our migration flows to and from the territory.
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  Speaker 2: So you know, people that have been around for a
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  Speaker 2: while know that we attract people from interstate who are
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  Speaker 2: in their early to mid twenties. Now they stay in
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  Speaker 2: the territory for a while and they're likely to leave
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  Speaker 2: in their thirties, or we have a huge outflow of
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  Speaker 2: people in their thirties, which is that peak marriage and
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  Speaker 2: peak divorce age group or age range in your thirties.
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  Speaker 2: So in a sense we export a lot of divorces
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  Speaker 2: to interstate and that helps keep our rate low. So
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  Speaker 2: it really is the devil in the detail with this
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  Speaker 2: one and another angle for this that might be more
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  Speaker 2: in line with people's expectations. I suppose when we look
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  Speaker 2: at the median length of time between marriage and separation
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  Speaker 2: and then marriage and divorce, people in the NTA have
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  Speaker 2: the shortest marriages unfortunately. So the average marriage, the average
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  Speaker 2: marriage that's led to a divorce lasted eleven point two
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  Speaker 2: years compared to twelve point two years for the rest
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  Speaker 2: of Australia. From marriage to separation in the territory seven
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  Speaker 2: point five years compared to eight point four years elsewhere. Goodness, man,
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  Speaker 2: I have to think about as well. Yeah, so it's
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  Speaker 2: a bit of a mixed picture there.
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  Speaker 1: It sounds that way. It sounds like it's very mixed.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, then I guess there's different factors I'm
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  Speaker 1: assuming that come into play as well when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to divorce, and different factors that come into play here
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  Speaker 1: in the Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. I mean we've got to think about
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  Speaker 2: things like remoteness and isolation from family down south to
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  Speaker 2: seeing factors. You know that there are a range of
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  Speaker 2: known factors that are correlated with divorces unfortunately, and you
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  Speaker 2: know these include alcohol, and drug taking previously. Having been
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  Speaker 2: divorced is a very highly correlated factor. Yeah, and where
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  Speaker 2: you've come from and where your family are in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the support you get around your marriage. Of course,
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  Speaker 2: it is important, especially if you have children. And because
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  Speaker 2: we are bringing in so many new people to the
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  Speaker 2: territory each year, and we always have done compared to
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  Speaker 2: other states and territories on a proportional basis. You know,
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  Speaker 2: we've got a whole bunch of people every year who
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  Speaker 2: are coming who may or may not get married, by
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  Speaker 2: the way, but it may or may not be divorced,
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  Speaker 2: but they're a long way from their family, and so
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  Speaker 2: there is that potential for people to feel isolated and
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  Speaker 2: cut off from some of their emotional and family support
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  Speaker 2: even if they are married. Yes, they still might be
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  Speaker 2: feeling the effects. Yeah, it may contribute to the shorter
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  Speaker 2: time frame for the shorter length of marriages for those
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  Speaker 2: that do end up dissolving.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it sounds like a very interesting discussion, and you know,
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  Speaker 1: and so many factors at play, which I guess is
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  Speaker 1: not you know, isn't sort of surprising when you're talking
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  Speaker 1: about whether a marriage is lasting or not.
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  Speaker 2: That's right, when you unpick the data a bit more.
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  Speaker 2: It kind of kind of does make more intuitive sense.
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  Speaker 2: You know, if you've lived here for a while, you
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  Speaker 2: see what goes on, and some of that data that
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  Speaker 2: I looked at there, it does make a bit more sense.
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  Speaker 2: The other thing that's interesting here is only forty six
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  Speaker 2: percent of divorces in the territory we're applied for by
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  Speaker 2: the female in the in the relationship, much much lower
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  Speaker 2: than natural nation two. So it's more men applying for
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  Speaker 2: divorces in the territory than there is elsewhere.
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  Speaker 1: Any idea, any idea, or any sort of research as
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  Speaker 1: to why that would be the case.
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  Speaker 2: I was afraid you'd ask me that I haven't been
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  Speaker 2: able to think through a solid reason for that. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: we do have more men in our population overall, which
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  Speaker 2: which may help to drive that. But yeah, it's an
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  Speaker 2: interesting one.
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  Speaker 1: Very very interesting. Well. Always good to catch up with you,
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  Speaker 1: Andrew Taylor, there's CDU Associate professor. Thank you very much
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  Speaker 1: walking us through the divorce, the vulce rate in the
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  Speaker 1: Northern Territory and some of the factors at play.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely pleasure. Thank you, good on you, thank you