Latest / Podcast on the Brink / POTB 558: Bracketology update with Brian Tonsoni of the Assembly Call and Delphi Bracketology

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POTB 558: Bracketology update with Brian Tonsoni of the Assembly Call and Delphi Bracketology · Podcast on the Brink

0:17
Speaker 1: Welcome back to a new episode of Podcast on the Brink.
0:21
Speaker 1: It's Friday, February thirteenth. Just don't realize Friday the thirteenth
0:28
Speaker 1: not everyone's favorite favorite day on the calendar, but we're
0:31
Speaker 1: here nonetheless for Podcast on the Brink a new episode.
0:35
Speaker 1: The coach, Brian Tonsoni of The Assembly Call and Delphi
0:39
Speaker 1: Bracketology is has been kind up to join us. We
0:43
Speaker 1: stole him away from lunch duty there at school, so
0:46
Speaker 1: he's making a special appearance here on the podcast, taking
0:50
Speaker 1: some time out of his day. Really appreciate that before
0:52
Speaker 1: we get to Coach. If you enjoy the show over
0:54
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, please leave us a five
0:56
Speaker 1: star rating in review. If you enjoy the show over
1:00
Speaker 1: on YouTube, like the video, subscribe to the channel continue
1:03
Speaker 1: to see our numbers grow over there. So we really
1:05
Speaker 1: like to see that, coach. How was lunch, Judy?
1:09
Speaker 2: Just fantastic? You know, watching you know, freshman through seniors
1:12
Speaker 2: eat lunch and talk the way they do is one
1:15
Speaker 2: of the most riveting parts of my day. But it
1:17
Speaker 2: was uneventful and now I'm ready to talk some basketball.
1:20
Speaker 1: So I noticed this morning you had a note over
1:24
Speaker 1: on X that you and a student had done a
1:27
Speaker 1: deep dive on the bubble this morning for your efforts
1:31
Speaker 1: over there at del Fi Bracketology, what can you tell
1:35
Speaker 1: us right now? Thirty days were moved from selection Sunday
1:41
Speaker 1: three days to go, rather obviously a lot a ton
1:44
Speaker 1: of interest on this podcast and among the IU fan
1:46
Speaker 1: base on where Indiana is. It seems like they've maybe
1:48
Speaker 1: moved themselves a little bit more safely into the field
1:52
Speaker 1: with their play recently, but still in most projections that
1:56
Speaker 1: I've seen that nine to ten range. But as it
1:58
Speaker 1: pertains to Indiana the bubble, what's the latest on whether
2:02
Speaker 1: who's your staying in kind of what things look like
2:04
Speaker 1: right now with the number of teams vying for those
2:06
Speaker 1: last spots.
2:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have Indiana as the last nine seed, which
2:11
Speaker 2: would be thirty six overall seed, and right the thirty
2:16
Speaker 2: seventh team is what we would consider the first buys
2:19
Speaker 2: or the last buys, and then you have the last
2:21
Speaker 2: four ends. So Indiana has nine spots away from the
2:25
Speaker 2: cut line, and they really have work to do. They
2:28
Speaker 2: have a couple of really good wins and three wins
2:30
Speaker 2: against the field, but they only have four total Quad
2:33
Speaker 2: one and Quad two wins. They have a lot of
2:35
Speaker 2: opportunities coming up here on the road and at home,
2:40
Speaker 2: but they're not free yet of the bubble. They're not safe,
2:44
Speaker 2: but they are in a better spot than teams like
2:46
Speaker 2: Texas A and m Georgia, Missouri USC, which are just
2:50
Speaker 2: below Indiana. And then you get to the four teams
2:52
Speaker 2: that would be playing in Dayton, which are Texas, St. Mary's, UCLA,
2:56
Speaker 2: and Virginia Tech according to what we're putting together. But
3:00
Speaker 2: what's fascinating and kind of scary as Indiana fans, one
3:06
Speaker 2: loss can really move you down and one win can
3:08
Speaker 2: really move you up. Wisconsin was a ten and now
3:11
Speaker 2: they're an eight because they went on the road and
3:13
Speaker 2: beat Illinois, which Indiana has an opportunity to do on Sunday.
3:16
Speaker 2: So things on that bubble can change rather quickly.
3:20
Speaker 1: I think when we all got the Indiana schedule, we
3:23
Speaker 1: knew the opponents, but then we kind of saw the
3:25
Speaker 1: schedules beginning of the season. We circled Michigan State, Michigan Purdue,
3:31
Speaker 1: and Illinois road games as games that were probably going
3:34
Speaker 1: to be difficult to win. So we've had two of
3:37
Speaker 1: those games already. We saw the Michigan loss, we saw
3:39
Speaker 1: the Michigan State loss. Indiana doesn't win any of those
3:42
Speaker 1: games they've got coming up now, Illinois and Purdue. You
3:46
Speaker 1: mentioned what those games can do from a perspective of
3:49
Speaker 1: if they won either of those games, can definitely move
3:52
Speaker 1: them up. But if they were to lose these two games,
3:56
Speaker 1: how does that change anything in terms of where they
3:58
Speaker 1: are in the bracket.
4:00
Speaker 2: You have to compare them to the teams right below them.
4:03
Speaker 2: So if AM and Georgia win a couple games, Indiana
4:06
Speaker 2: is going to move down a seed line even though
4:08
Speaker 2: they are quality losses. So the losses will matter, but
4:13
Speaker 2: they're not horrible losses. Indiana doesn't really have a bad loss.
4:16
Speaker 2: The Minnesota loss is the worst one, and that's a
4:18
Speaker 2: quad two and it's been borderline all year. And the
4:22
Speaker 2: committee knows that Indiana played a tough schedule. The question
4:25
Speaker 2: is did they win enough in that tough schedule to
4:28
Speaker 2: get selected as one of the teams. Their metrics are
4:31
Speaker 2: really good. They're thirtieth in the net. That plays a
4:34
Speaker 2: big role. The wins above bubble is a stat that
4:37
Speaker 2: people need to pay attention to. That is has Indiana
4:42
Speaker 2: in the ten or nine range. So the metrics are
4:44
Speaker 2: in Indiana's favor. Beating Purdue is in Indiana's favor, so
4:48
Speaker 2: losing is not going to knock them out of our bracket.
4:51
Speaker 2: You lose to Northwestern, that's a huge loss. You lose
4:56
Speaker 2: to Minnesota at home, huge loss. Those are must win
4:59
Speaker 2: games for Indian If they win three games from here,
5:03
Speaker 2: including the tournament, I think it's going to be hard
5:05
Speaker 2: to keep them out. But it depends again on if
5:08
Speaker 2: teams below them go on a huge run and pass
5:12
Speaker 2: Indiana even you know why they go five hundred.
5:15
Speaker 1: So I've talked a lot on this show this season
5:18
Speaker 1: just about the metrics, and although Indiana's record isn't great
5:23
Speaker 1: in many ways, kind of comparable to where they were
5:25
Speaker 1: last year in some ways where they ended up, but
5:28
Speaker 1: the metrics overall are just so much better. You look
5:31
Speaker 1: at all the computer numbers, you know, from the Kpi
5:33
Speaker 1: to the BPI strength of record, you mentioned wins above,
5:36
Speaker 1: Bubble bark torvit Ken, Palm, all those the net they're
5:39
Speaker 1: all used in this selection process. Can you just explain
5:42
Speaker 1: to people why maybe Indiana is, without going too much
5:47
Speaker 1: into the leeds, why they look so much better in
5:50
Speaker 1: all of the computer metrics this year as compared to
5:53
Speaker 1: the last couple of years.
5:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've played better basketball offensively and defensively with their
5:58
Speaker 2: efficiency metrics. There have been a couple of games that
6:01
Speaker 2: have gotten out of hand, but you're still only losing
6:03
Speaker 2: like fourteen or fifteen point games. There's no thirty or
6:06
Speaker 2: forty point blowouts to the really good teams. You've had
6:09
Speaker 2: leads late against Kentucky and Nebraska and you lost them.
6:15
Speaker 2: And if you're beating teams by more than what's expected,
6:18
Speaker 2: like the Ken Palm range, if you're favored by seven
6:21
Speaker 2: and you win by eighteen, that's going to improve your metrics,
6:26
Speaker 2: especially on the predictive metrics and the resume metrics. The
6:30
Speaker 2: wins above bubble and strength. The record is who you
6:32
Speaker 2: play and how you do against them, and Indiana's really
6:35
Speaker 2: taking care of business against the bottom part of their schedule,
6:38
Speaker 2: except for maybe the Incarnate word. But they've really done
6:41
Speaker 2: well offensively and defensively against the teams they should and
6:45
Speaker 2: they've been competitive against the teams that are at their
6:48
Speaker 2: level or above their level, and that results in a
6:51
Speaker 2: net of thirty. And you said Ken Pom, and some
6:54
Speaker 2: of those metrics being better than they were in previous years.
7:00
Speaker 1: So does that tell you that this is that's something
7:03
Speaker 1: that the staff is like actively looking at when they
7:06
Speaker 1: go into some of these non conference games. You know,
7:09
Speaker 1: because there's a tendency sometimes I think in the past,
7:13
Speaker 1: and again we're not here to talk about wood Center
7:15
Speaker 1: Archie Air specifically, but I think there was maybe less
7:18
Speaker 1: of an emphasis on this type of thing. Do you
7:20
Speaker 1: think that this is something that this staff is thinking
7:23
Speaker 1: about when they go into these non conference games. The
7:25
Speaker 1: Penn State game is a perfect example. They win that
7:28
Speaker 1: game by forty four. They could have easily taken their
7:30
Speaker 1: foot off the gas and won by twenty five and
7:32
Speaker 1: emptied the bench. But when you've got playing your starters
7:35
Speaker 1: late in the game, I think with the metrics being
7:38
Speaker 1: as important as important as they are, kind of some
7:40
Speaker 1: of the old way of doing things has been thrown
7:42
Speaker 1: out the window because every point does matter. It could
7:45
Speaker 1: you know, one game where you win by twenty five
7:48
Speaker 1: as opposed to fifteen, that could affect your ranking a
7:51
Speaker 1: couple spots, and all of a sudden, you're talking about
7:53
Speaker 1: barely making it in versus not making it in.
7:58
Speaker 2: And over the course of thirty one games. I think
8:00
Speaker 2: you're You're absolutely right. You pick up a plus five
8:03
Speaker 2: and thirty one games from what you were expected. Even
8:06
Speaker 2: in losses closer losses than what was expected, your metrics
8:10
Speaker 2: are going to be a lot better the old coach
8:12
Speaker 2: and me says, Nah, you just play each game and
8:15
Speaker 2: it's a one game schedule and you want to go
8:16
Speaker 2: one to zero every game, and if you win, that's
8:19
Speaker 2: you know, winning is tough. But when you have a
8:22
Speaker 2: selection committee that does look at these things, I think
8:25
Speaker 2: it is remiss to not pay attention to the margins.
8:28
Speaker 2: You got to know when the game's over when to
8:30
Speaker 2: stop filing and add points at the back end. You
8:33
Speaker 2: know you're down nine with thirty two seconds left, are
8:35
Speaker 2: you going to file? I think that has to start
8:39
Speaker 2: being consideration because there's lots of good coaches. You have
8:42
Speaker 2: the nil and the transfer portal where teams are going
8:45
Speaker 2: to reload, and you're fighting for one of the forty
8:47
Speaker 2: four spots. We always just we go to the top
8:51
Speaker 2: forty four to forty five in our bracket before the
8:54
Speaker 2: automatic qualifiers, so you're trying to get in the top forty.
8:57
Speaker 2: Those things matter, and I think the good coaching staff
9:00
Speaker 2: will pay attention to some of that. And I'm not
9:02
Speaker 2: all for running up to score, but I think you
9:05
Speaker 2: have to you have to pay attention to that if
9:07
Speaker 2: you want to maximize your possibilities for tournament selection and seeding.
9:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it also probably has to be
9:15
Speaker 1: top in my top of mind a little bit for
9:17
Speaker 1: Darren de Reason after what happened last season at was Virginia. Right,
9:20
Speaker 1: he's the first team out of the field, and as
9:23
Speaker 1: he I haven't asked him this, it'd be interesting to
9:26
Speaker 1: kind of get his perspective, but I'm curious how kind
9:29
Speaker 1: of being that first team out last year maybe reshaped
9:32
Speaker 1: the way he thought about this season and the way
9:34
Speaker 1: they wanted to schedule maybe and also just how they
9:37
Speaker 1: wanted some of these games to play out, Because you're right,
9:39
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at what their preseason ranking was
9:42
Speaker 1: in Ken Palm. They they were used to Indiana kind
9:45
Speaker 1: of moving down and that as a season going along,
9:49
Speaker 1: one of the things that was really just impressive to
9:51
Speaker 1: me is just how much they've outperformed their preseason metrics
9:55
Speaker 1: and the way he did that do that, right, is
9:56
Speaker 1: the you know the offensive and defensive defensive official and
10:00
Speaker 1: see within games, you know, you pick up five or
10:03
Speaker 1: six points here and there, and win by a little bit,
10:05
Speaker 1: and over the course of the season it adds up.
10:07
Speaker 1: So I'd be curious Coach devrees to know, like after
10:12
Speaker 1: last season just being barely left out, how much he
10:16
Speaker 1: thought about that.
10:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, again, I think he Every coach should hire someone.
10:21
Speaker 2: And I'm retiring from teaching this year, so I'm not
10:24
Speaker 2: angling for a job. But I sorry the bell behind
10:28
Speaker 2: me just went off. But I do think they have
10:31
Speaker 2: to pay attention to it. I think West Virginia last
10:33
Speaker 2: year was left out a lot because of injuries. They
10:36
Speaker 2: lost a couple of players, and so they were evaluated
10:39
Speaker 2: on the last ten or twelve games, which they went
10:41
Speaker 2: about five hundred, that was the team that was going
10:43
Speaker 2: to be in the playoffs. That's something that's really hard
10:46
Speaker 2: for us bracketologists because we're data driven and we look
10:48
Speaker 2: at the numbers and we look at the metrics, and
10:50
Speaker 2: the metrics and the numbers put West Virginia in. But
10:54
Speaker 2: the committee thought that with the two major injuries, the
10:58
Speaker 2: team that West Virginia had that was going to go
11:00
Speaker 2: the tournament was just not good enough to go in.
11:02
Speaker 2: So those are hard to predict with knowing. I think
11:05
Speaker 2: USC alex is in that very position you know, they
11:09
Speaker 2: lose their lead guard after winning Maui and then they
11:12
Speaker 2: lose Mazara the Kid in the Indiana game, and they're
11:16
Speaker 2: two to one since. But they've struggled against Penn State,
11:19
Speaker 2: lost on the road against Ohio State their next few games.
11:21
Speaker 2: If they if they don't have a good, solid winning
11:24
Speaker 2: record here, depending on when Mazari comes back, they could
11:28
Speaker 2: have numbers that say get in but be left out.
11:31
Speaker 2: That's why we've moved USC down quite a bit because
11:34
Speaker 2: we don't think they're as good as they were earlier
11:36
Speaker 2: in the season when they obtained good numbers.
11:40
Speaker 1: So you've watched the Big Ten for a long time.
11:42
Speaker 1: I respect your opinion on the league as much as
11:45
Speaker 1: anybody because you've been doing bracketology for so long, and
11:48
Speaker 1: I know you actually go to some of these places
11:50
Speaker 1: like Illinole Purdue. I think has been nice enough to
11:52
Speaker 1: kind of let you guys come down there and watch games,
11:55
Speaker 1: and I know you're in Indiana a lot. The top
11:57
Speaker 1: of the Big Ten this year feels different to me
12:00
Speaker 1: than it has in the recent past in terms of
12:03
Speaker 1: teams that have a chance to potentially break through and
12:06
Speaker 1: go win a national championship. Part One, I guess of
12:08
Speaker 1: that question is do you agree with that? And when
12:10
Speaker 1: you look at the top of this league, which team
12:13
Speaker 1: stand out the most to you is potentially having a
12:15
Speaker 1: chance to go win it all?
12:17
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the league is having a great year,
12:21
Speaker 2: and you really look at the top five teams and
12:23
Speaker 2: I think they have a chance to advance to the
12:25
Speaker 2: Elite eight, and then it's matchups, Right, can you win
12:29
Speaker 2: that matchup of really good teams at that point to
12:31
Speaker 2: get to the final four? And then are you good enough?
12:34
Speaker 2: I catch a lot of grief on assembly call for
12:37
Speaker 2: liking coach Underwood and Illinois. I think I don't necessarily
12:41
Speaker 2: like their offense. It's a lot of the middle ball
12:43
Speaker 2: screen stand in the corner, but they do a really
12:45
Speaker 2: good job of getting advantages, and they're very efficient offensively,
12:50
Speaker 2: and they rebound the basketball extremely well, and I think
12:52
Speaker 2: those two things can lead to a championship. I think
12:56
Speaker 2: Purdue is really solid too. They're struggling right now and
13:00
Speaker 2: they're having trouble guarding, so that would concern me. But
13:03
Speaker 2: we almost moved them back up to the two seed
13:05
Speaker 2: line today in our in our class because their overall
13:08
Speaker 2: body of work is that good. If you're a top
13:10
Speaker 2: eight team, you have a chance to win it all.
13:13
Speaker 2: And Michigan is the other one that I think really
13:17
Speaker 2: has a chance to They're just incredible with their size
13:21
Speaker 2: and their shooting, and the Maara kid is really playing
13:23
Speaker 2: extremely well. Uh and Dusty's doing a fantastic job. I
13:27
Speaker 2: would say those three have a chance to get to
13:29
Speaker 2: the final four and have a chance to win. Can't
13:32
Speaker 2: count out Izzo in Michigan State. I don't think they
13:34
Speaker 2: shoot the ball well enough overall, and and Fears is
13:39
Speaker 2: just one accidental trip away from, you know, having some issues.
13:43
Speaker 2: And the Nebraska love Nebraska. I love how they play,
13:46
Speaker 2: they move on offense, but is it sustainable to win
13:50
Speaker 2: six straight games the way they play? Uh, they can
13:54
Speaker 2: do some damage, but I think again they're their floor
13:56
Speaker 2: for or ceiling for me as an elite eight. But
13:59
Speaker 2: I think there's three teams. And then you know, Iowa
14:03
Speaker 2: is capable, Ucla is capable, Indiana is capable of winning
14:06
Speaker 2: the game or two if they get hot. You know,
14:08
Speaker 2: how can you stop Lamar Wilkerson. Bennett sturts like, there's
14:11
Speaker 2: some players in that mid mid range that you put
14:15
Speaker 2: two solid games in a row, you could pull some
14:17
Speaker 2: upsets and get to a sweet sixteen. So I think
14:19
Speaker 2: the conference is really fun. It's it's a really good conference.
14:23
Speaker 2: The coaching in this conference is unbelievable, and so that's
14:26
Speaker 2: why you lose to a Minnesota that dude can coach.
14:29
Speaker 2: You know, he's beating Michigan State in Iowa and Indiana
14:33
Speaker 2: at at Minnesota, I mean Collins. I saw him at
14:36
Speaker 2: Illinois and they got beat by forty and his press
14:38
Speaker 2: conference was just so good, so professional and how he's
14:40
Speaker 2: trying to do things. And it's a great conference, Alex
14:43
Speaker 2: and it's it's tough. So if you can get to
14:45
Speaker 2: five hundred or better, I think that's an outstanding year,
14:48
Speaker 2: especially for US as Indiana people.
14:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, as much as I respect Perdue, and I think
14:54
Speaker 1: that that group has really maximized their talent and I
14:56
Speaker 1: think they have a great team. I kind of go
14:58
Speaker 1: back to Illinois and Mission and circle them as the
15:01
Speaker 1: teams that I'm most watched watching as when Terma starts.
15:04
Speaker 1: And the big reason is you don't see a lot
15:07
Speaker 1: of teams go and actually win a national championship or
15:09
Speaker 1: get to a Final four without like surefire pros on
15:12
Speaker 1: the roster. Illinois's got one in the back court with
15:15
Speaker 1: with the freshman who with Wagler. I mean he could
15:18
Speaker 1: potentially win Big Ten Player of the Year. As a freshman.
15:20
Speaker 1: He was ranked I think in the top like he
15:22
Speaker 1: was like two sixty one in the final twenty four
15:24
Speaker 1: to seven Sports Composite rankings. So what an incredible find
15:28
Speaker 1: for them. They've got incredible size, Uh just at every position. Really,
15:32
Speaker 1: they're really tough to guard, as you mentioned, and then
15:34
Speaker 1: Michigan with their size, they've they've actually they've got other
15:37
Speaker 1: guys on their roster and I think are gonna play
15:39
Speaker 1: in the NBA. It's just I think in today's game,
15:41
Speaker 1: you have to have that one or two, that one
15:45
Speaker 1: to two punch. And as good as Braydon Smith is,
15:47
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if he's a surefire NBA player. I
15:50
Speaker 1: think Trey Koffman Ren has been good at accepting a
15:54
Speaker 1: different role of the season with the addition of Kluff,
15:56
Speaker 1: you know, they haven't really used him as much offensively,
15:59
Speaker 1: and I think it's created maybe some better balance. But
16:01
Speaker 1: I just look at their roster defensively, I think there's
16:04
Speaker 1: ways to pick them apart. And I think once you
16:06
Speaker 1: get into the like you said.
16:07
Speaker 2: In the Elite eight.
16:08
Speaker 1: You're gonna be going against some teams that have really
16:10
Speaker 1: good talent, really good size, athleticism, physicality, all those things.
16:16
Speaker 1: I think Illinois and Michigan to me, are more equipped
16:19
Speaker 1: to handle those type of matchups. Michigan State, I agree
16:22
Speaker 1: with you. That's another thing. I look at Michigan State
16:25
Speaker 1: over the years. You know, I remember those early two thousands,
16:28
Speaker 1: mid two thousand and ten teams in Michigan State. They
16:31
Speaker 1: had surefire NBA players on a lot of those teams.
16:34
Speaker 1: I look at this Michigan State roster and I say,
16:36
Speaker 1: is there an NBA player on the roster. I'm not
16:38
Speaker 1: sure there is. And that's another thing that makes me
16:40
Speaker 1: think they're, you know, maybe a Sweet sixteen team. Same
16:43
Speaker 1: thing with Nebraska. They've got a great collection of talent,
16:46
Speaker 1: and I'm saying that it can't happen that you can't
16:48
Speaker 1: outperform with lesser talent. But even go back to the
16:53
Speaker 1: IU football example, this season, they were a great team.
16:55
Speaker 1: Last year, they had a seventh six, seventh round pick
16:58
Speaker 1: at quarterback and Cordish work. This year they get that
17:00
Speaker 1: stud in the backfield with Fernanda men Doz, and all
17:03
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you give yourself a lot more upside.
17:06
Speaker 1: And I know there's more to it in football, but
17:08
Speaker 1: I think having that star is really what pushes you
17:10
Speaker 1: to that next level from being you know, Sweet sixteen
17:12
Speaker 1: to Ladie eight team to a team that can go
17:14
Speaker 1: in the National Championship. I want to ask you about
17:16
Speaker 1: some of these other bubble teams in Indiana could potentially
17:19
Speaker 1: be fighting for in terms of getting a spot in
17:21
Speaker 1: the tournament, specifically from the Big Ten. You mentioned USC
17:24
Speaker 1: a little bit with their injury situation. Hopefully Baker Mazara
17:27
Speaker 1: can get back in the lineup and give it the
17:30
Speaker 1: Big Ten a chance for another bid there. But UCLA
17:32
Speaker 1: and Ohio State are interesting to me because I think
17:35
Speaker 1: in many ways they've maybe underperformed their talent to where
17:38
Speaker 1: they are right now. You know, I look at those
17:40
Speaker 1: teams on paper, and you know, I think they may
17:43
Speaker 1: have more talent overall than Indiana, but they haven't performed
17:47
Speaker 1: overall better than Indiana. Where where are those teams just
17:49
Speaker 1: kind of right now in terms of having a chance
17:51
Speaker 1: to get in Ucla obviously they go head to head
17:53
Speaker 1: with Indiana out in out of poly Pavilion. Indiana gets
17:58
Speaker 1: that win, which could that being a win that helps
18:01
Speaker 1: push Indiana in the tournament, a critical loss potentially for
18:04
Speaker 1: UCLA and then Ohio State and the Hoosiers will play
18:07
Speaker 1: here later in the season, I think the last regular
18:10
Speaker 1: season game or one of the last regular season games
18:12
Speaker 1: for the Hoosiers. But just curious for your thoughts on
18:14
Speaker 1: UCLA and Ohio State. Where those two teams stand right now.
18:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have Ucla in Dayton in the last four
18:21
Speaker 2: in and Ohio State one of the first teams out,
18:23
Speaker 2: in fact, probably the first team out. We're looking at
18:27
Speaker 2: trends in this wins above. Bubble came into the committee
18:30
Speaker 2: last year, and last year if you were in the
18:31
Speaker 2: top forty, you were a top ten seed. Well, Ucla
18:34
Speaker 2: sitting at forty three in Ohio State sitting at forty six,
18:38
Speaker 2: and UCLA has a win over Purdue, which is going
18:41
Speaker 2: to hold for a long time when you beat a
18:44
Speaker 2: two or three seed the same as Indiana. Indiana has
18:47
Speaker 2: the win over Purdue and UCLA, so you almost kind
18:50
Speaker 2: of root for UCLA to win and boost their resume
18:54
Speaker 2: because it'll make Indiana look better as well. Ohio State
18:57
Speaker 2: hasn't beaten anybody of notes. They have only one quad
19:01
Speaker 2: one win and it just became a quad one when
19:03
Speaker 2: Northwestern moved to seventy three in the net. Northwesterns ten
19:07
Speaker 2: and fifteen. That's their best win. And so Ohio State
19:10
Speaker 2: has a tough schedule coming up where they have opportunities,
19:14
Speaker 2: but right now they're just on the outside looking up.
19:16
Speaker 2: They have good metrics or decent enough metrics to get in,
19:20
Speaker 2: but they're gonna have to win some games in UCLA
19:22
Speaker 2: is gonna have to maintain winning to avoid Dayton or
19:27
Speaker 2: to at least get to Dayton. There. Like I said,
19:29
Speaker 2: you go from Miamia, Florida, which is right above Indiana,
19:32
Speaker 2: all the way down to Virginia Tech, which is our
19:35
Speaker 2: last team in. And the rate there's razor thin margins
19:39
Speaker 2: for those teams on the bubble. And so these last
19:43
Speaker 2: few weeks we never say a win moves the team
19:46
Speaker 2: down or a win a loss, A loss moves them down,
19:49
Speaker 2: a win moves them up like a standings board. But
19:51
Speaker 2: in comparison, like when you watch games tomorrow and there's
19:54
Speaker 2: three or four wins on the bubble and four losses
19:56
Speaker 2: on the bubble, Now you've got to evaluate those ten
19:58
Speaker 2: to twelve teams. That's when teams can move and if
20:02
Speaker 2: you're Miami of Florida, Indiana, you're at the top, so
20:06
Speaker 2: you can afford some glitches a little bit more than
20:09
Speaker 2: you can if you're Ohio State. But you got to
20:12
Speaker 2: compare those. But that's where I see UCLA and Ohio
20:15
Speaker 2: State both have a chance to get in. Both need
20:17
Speaker 2: wins down the road in order to secure that spot.
20:21
Speaker 1: Who are the teams that those those two are fighting
20:24
Speaker 1: it out with right now kind of relative to the
20:26
Speaker 1: bubble and the last couple spots.
20:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, so our last four in Texas Saint Mary's, UCLA,
20:33
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, and then the first four out are Ohio State,
20:37
Speaker 2: San Diego State, TCU, and either VCU or New Mexico.
20:41
Speaker 2: We haven't made a decision on that quite yet, but
20:44
Speaker 2: those are some of those are like the eight or
20:45
Speaker 2: nine teams that are right on that sharp cut line
20:48
Speaker 2: for right now, and anyone above that has a little
20:52
Speaker 2: more breathing room. But like I said, I don't think
20:55
Speaker 2: anyone even UCF and SMU, which are other eight seed lines,
20:59
Speaker 2: and even Iowa who does not have a huge quality
21:03
Speaker 2: win but has great metrics, there are thirty second team
21:06
Speaker 2: or last eight still has work to do in order
21:09
Speaker 2: to be safely in the tournament come selection Sunday.
21:13
Speaker 1: What does Iowa have to do kind of the rest
21:15
Speaker 1: of the way to solidify that spot.
21:18
Speaker 2: Well, you know, they got a big opportunity Saturday. I
21:20
Speaker 2: think they have a Michigan game coming up. They need
21:23
Speaker 2: one nice win if they their metrics are so good.
21:27
Speaker 1: But there's strength is that Indiana their best win.
21:33
Speaker 2: I can take a quick peek here, give me just
21:35
Speaker 2: a quick second to find Iowa on the on the
21:37
Speaker 2: team sheet.
21:38
Speaker 1: But I'm thinking about that. I kind of think that
21:41
Speaker 1: might be the best win.
21:42
Speaker 2: Social Yeah, and they're they're their metrics are okay, So yeah,
21:48
Speaker 2: they're they're thirtieth, thirty fifth in that win aboves bubble,
21:51
Speaker 2: which would be a nine seed if you just went
21:53
Speaker 2: by that one metric. There are other metrics there. Predictive
21:56
Speaker 2: metrics are like six seed worthy. Their best win is
22:01
Speaker 2: at Indiana thirty away, and then they have a thirty
22:04
Speaker 2: nine home which is a quad two against UCLA and
22:08
Speaker 2: USC at home too. So they have three wins against
22:11
Speaker 2: tournament level teams, which is I think they're relatively safe.
22:17
Speaker 2: But if they you know, I don't have their schedule
22:20
Speaker 2: handy here, but they have some games that are gonna
22:24
Speaker 2: be real tough. They need one big one to make
22:26
Speaker 2: sure that they're safe. But they're probably gonna be around
22:29
Speaker 2: Indiana too, around an eight nine to ten line. I
22:32
Speaker 2: would believe.
22:33
Speaker 1: I've gotten the question a lot, like what do you
22:35
Speaker 1: think Indiana has to do the rest of the way,
22:37
Speaker 1: And I'll give you my perspective and then you can
22:39
Speaker 1: give me yours. But I think if they just figure
22:42
Speaker 1: out a way to get you know, the Northwestern game
22:48
Speaker 1: in Minnesota game at home, that would give them the
22:50
Speaker 1: ten Big Ten wins and then find one more win somewhere.
22:54
Speaker 1: I don't know if that needs to come in the
22:55
Speaker 1: regular season or in the conference tournament. I think they
22:58
Speaker 1: would probably be in date for sure with just three
23:02
Speaker 1: more wins. Now, if they were somehow able to hold
23:05
Speaker 1: serve at home the rest of the way and beat Northwestern,
23:08
Speaker 1: Michigan State, and Minnesota, that I think would give them
23:11
Speaker 1: eleven Big Ten wins. I don't think it would matter
23:13
Speaker 1: much at that point what happened to the Big Ten tournament.
23:15
Speaker 1: I think if you have the metrics that Indiana has
23:17
Speaker 1: and you go over five hundred in the Big Ten,
23:19
Speaker 1: which I think most of the rankings, if you look
23:22
Speaker 1: at their worst the second best conference, I think they're
23:25
Speaker 1: in the tournament at that point. Do you agree with
23:27
Speaker 1: that and what do you kind of feel like they
23:28
Speaker 1: have to do?
23:30
Speaker 2: I do. I think you want to avoid a lost
23:33
Speaker 2: at Ohio State and a loss in the first round
23:35
Speaker 2: of the tournament because you're probably, you know, playing on
23:37
Speaker 2: Wednesday night as a nine or ten team in the
23:39
Speaker 2: Big Ten against a lower seed. You know, three wins
23:43
Speaker 2: sounds about right. If you can somehow pull off that
23:46
Speaker 2: Michigan State game, that might be the lock. You know,
23:49
Speaker 2: you have a win against a two three seeds, even
23:52
Speaker 2: though they came in home. I think it'd be hard
23:55
Speaker 2: to pass pass Indiana up with any big winning streat
23:58
Speaker 2: from those teams we mentioned that are below Indiana. If
24:01
Speaker 2: you if you take just take care of business at home.
24:06
Speaker 2: If you take care of business at home, I think
24:07
Speaker 2: Indiana is dancing.
24:09
Speaker 1: Now.
24:09
Speaker 2: Are they a nine to ten or eleven seed at
24:11
Speaker 2: that point? I can't tell you without knowing what the
24:13
Speaker 2: other teams are doing. And that's always the toughest question
24:16
Speaker 2: that we get as bracketologist. How many wins, Well, it
24:18
Speaker 2: depends on what the other teams are doing that are
24:21
Speaker 2: below as well, you could go three and four, but
24:23
Speaker 2: if someone else goes six and oh, that's below you,
24:27
Speaker 2: they're going to pass you. And there's a possibility that
24:29
Speaker 2: a lot of teams can have that level of winning.
24:32
Speaker 2: And even though you do win three, that moves Indiana down,
24:36
Speaker 2: you know, far enough. So I don't think I'm going
24:39
Speaker 2: to relax until I see Indiana on CBS about six fifteen,
24:44
Speaker 2: six twenty regardless. But I'll feel a lot better if
24:48
Speaker 2: we can pull off one of these big ones. And
24:50
Speaker 2: I know the next two are probably going to be
24:52
Speaker 2: really tough, and so that Michigan State game is the
24:54
Speaker 2: one that I'm keeping my eye on.
24:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, but they can't afford to overlook Northwestern Minnesota. Minnesota
25:00
Speaker 1: has already been once in North Northwestern as much as
25:03
Speaker 1: they struggled at times. You mentioned Chris Collins, he's not
25:05
Speaker 1: just going to throw in the talent, say, you know,
25:07
Speaker 1: we're not going to go to Indiana and give an effort.
25:09
Speaker 1: They're going to try to be coming in there to
25:11
Speaker 1: win and fight. And you know, no game, no big
25:15
Speaker 1: ten game to me at this point, unless you're playing
25:19
Speaker 1: the very very bottom of the league at this point,
25:21
Speaker 1: which I guess is Penn State, and maybe they haven't
25:23
Speaker 1: even given up completely. They took USC to the wire recently.
25:26
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think there's a GIMMI on the
25:29
Speaker 1: schedule the rest of the way, So I think it's
25:31
Speaker 1: it's important. The last thing I want to ask you about,
25:33
Speaker 1: and this is more just a bracketology at large question,
25:36
Speaker 1: but you know, I know you guys go through this
25:38
Speaker 1: exercise every year and you try to like bank all
25:40
Speaker 1: this knowledge, like what the committee looked at last year,
25:42
Speaker 1: and how do I bake that into this year? So
25:45
Speaker 1: I don't you know, I'm sure you miss a couple
25:47
Speaker 1: of teams or a team here and there, and you're like,
25:49
Speaker 1: what did I miss here? So you try to adjust
25:52
Speaker 1: every year. But then we also have to keep in
25:54
Speaker 1: mind there's a new committee every year, and what the
25:57
Speaker 1: committee previous year might have emphasized, this committee may not emphasize.
26:02
Speaker 1: So what maybe did you learn from last year's bracketing
26:05
Speaker 1: process that you've tried to incorporate it into this year?
26:08
Speaker 1: And what these different computer rankings? There's so many of them,
26:13
Speaker 1: now are you are you valuing I've heard you mentioned
26:16
Speaker 1: wins above bubble and kind of that forty mark and
26:19
Speaker 1: Indiana's thirty eight right there, But how much more are
26:22
Speaker 1: you looking at like wins above bubble and net as
26:24
Speaker 1: opposed to like ken Palm and Torvik and KPI and BPI.
26:30
Speaker 2: So we believe the committee has created this wins above
26:34
Speaker 2: bubble and I think that's going to be an emphasis
26:36
Speaker 2: for committee members to use that. And basically that's do
26:39
Speaker 2: as a bubble team? Do you are you beating teams
26:42
Speaker 2: you're supposed to like above? Is the best way I
26:44
Speaker 2: probably can explain it, and that's not good explanation, but
26:48
Speaker 2: I like that statistic because it's that team that we're
26:51
Speaker 2: deciding on the bubble. Are you winning more or are
26:53
Speaker 2: you winning less than that average team? And I think
26:56
Speaker 2: that sets teams a part of how they play, and
26:59
Speaker 2: I think the committee really looked at that last year.
27:02
Speaker 2: Now we have done that, and then there's an outlier.
27:06
Speaker 2: Indiana State was one of the first teams with a
27:08
Speaker 2: net below thirty to not make the tournament a couple
27:13
Speaker 2: of years ago when they had their good run. There
27:15
Speaker 2: were times when the net there was no team that
27:17
Speaker 2: was sixty year above. And now we've had seventy seven.
27:20
Speaker 2: A net of seventy seven make the tournament. So those
27:24
Speaker 2: historical trends are always trends until they're not trends anymore.
27:28
Speaker 2: So what we've learned this year, I think, is we're
27:31
Speaker 2: looking at wins above bubble, and then we're looking at
27:34
Speaker 2: ken Palm and the predictive metrics offense and defensive and
27:38
Speaker 2: the nets. Second, it's always going to be wins first.
27:42
Speaker 2: Then it's going to be that wins above bubble kind
27:45
Speaker 2: of puts you in an eight to nine range. Then
27:47
Speaker 2: we look at predictive and then we go back to
27:49
Speaker 2: wins and try to move you up and down. We
27:52
Speaker 2: found that there were like only two or three outliers
27:55
Speaker 2: in the winds above bubble that had a wide variance.
28:00
Speaker 2: Mississippi was one. They had a high winds above bubble
28:02
Speaker 2: and they were like two or three seed lines below
28:05
Speaker 2: that number, and so we try to figure out why
28:08
Speaker 2: it was that variance, why did that happen, and then
28:12
Speaker 2: try to identify the outliers this year. UCF is potentially
28:17
Speaker 2: an outlier this year in the metrics that we've identified.
28:20
Speaker 2: USC is one. Miami of Ohio is going to be
28:22
Speaker 2: one where they're seeding is they're like thirtieth in the
28:25
Speaker 2: winds above bubble, but I don't see them getting an
28:27
Speaker 2: eight seed from the MAC. So that's how we're trying
28:31
Speaker 2: to do that. And then we're always a little ticked
28:33
Speaker 2: off when our analysis and what we thought we learned
28:36
Speaker 2: from previous years is broken by the new committee for
28:39
Speaker 2: the exact reasons that you said. So that's what makes
28:42
Speaker 2: this fun, as opposed to a standings board or a
28:45
Speaker 2: set of metrics that adds up and you just know
28:49
Speaker 2: where everyone is at all times. I know that level
28:51
Speaker 2: of transparency probably would help a lot of people, but
28:54
Speaker 2: I think this draws a lot of attention. And I'm
28:56
Speaker 2: biased because if we had a scoreboard, I wouldn't have
28:59
Speaker 2: an opportunity to come on podcast on the brink and
29:02
Speaker 2: give you my two cents worth, right. So yeah, it's
29:05
Speaker 2: not an exact science, but we tried to nail it
29:08
Speaker 2: down as much as possible.
29:09
Speaker 1: I've got one more theory that I want to throw out.
29:12
Speaker 1: I've said this in a couple of podcasts. Some people
29:14
Speaker 1: think I might crazy, but I think if Indiana is
29:16
Speaker 1: in the mix four of those last spots, I think
29:20
Speaker 1: the fact that they were the second team out last
29:22
Speaker 1: year and Devrees was the first team out that has
29:25
Speaker 1: to come into account. You know, if Dvrees is right
29:28
Speaker 1: there in the bubble again, does it feel like they
29:30
Speaker 1: owe them one? After last year there was a huge
29:32
Speaker 1: outcry that they were the first team left out last
29:36
Speaker 1: year and Indiana was right there at the second team.
29:37
Speaker 1: That's just a theory. I'm not sure it actually holds
29:40
Speaker 1: any weight, But I'm curious for your thought from a
29:41
Speaker 1: bracketology perspective, if that could happen.
29:45
Speaker 2: As a fan, I hope you're right, and as an alum,
29:47
Speaker 2: I hope you're right as a braggetologist. No, I think
29:49
Speaker 2: they look at each year. You know, last year we
29:54
Speaker 2: did not have North Carolina in. When I've went back
29:57
Speaker 2: and looked, everyone said it is because the athletic director
29:59
Speaker 2: was in the room. There was really a mathematical reason
30:02
Speaker 2: to include North Carolina. You know, we get these messages
30:09
Speaker 2: from all the reporters and the sideline reporters, this is
30:12
Speaker 2: a team and this that, And I think I have
30:15
Speaker 2: come to appreciate what the committee does have. I always
30:18
Speaker 2: agreed with everything, No, but it is such a difficult job.
30:23
Speaker 2: We spent forty five minutes today on eight teams, and
30:26
Speaker 2: we had them in like six different orders and they
30:30
Speaker 2: all made sense, So I don't think they go back
30:33
Speaker 2: and say, hey, we owe these guys something. Maybe someone
30:37
Speaker 2: will bring that up in the voting booth, but we
30:39
Speaker 2: can only hope. So as Indiana people.
30:41
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna keep I'm just gonna telling myself. I'm
30:43
Speaker 1: gonna keep telling myself that someone there and they make
30:46
Speaker 1: it in I want to say they have reason Indiana one.
30:48
Speaker 1: So thanks a lot for taking time out of your
30:51
Speaker 1: busy day there, coach. Next year, if you do, you'll
30:54
Speaker 1: be retired. What on a golf course somewhere. I'll have
30:56
Speaker 1: to get you off the off the tea box or
30:59
Speaker 1: something to do they do that, well.
31:01
Speaker 2: I'll probably do a seven thirty t time and then
31:04
Speaker 2: go home and do bracketology for a couple hours. So
31:07
Speaker 2: that's kind of my plan is a lot of golf
31:10
Speaker 2: and then a lot of bracketology here when the weather
31:13
Speaker 2: breaks awesome.
31:14
Speaker 1: Well enjoy the rest of your day. Thanks for taking
31:17
Speaker 1: the time. I always enjoy talking to you. Thank you
31:19
Speaker 1: guys for making time for us.
31:21
Speaker 2: Thanks to Alex.
31:23
Speaker 1: If you enjoy podcasts on the Brink, please leave us
31:25
Speaker 1: a rating and review over on Apple Podcasts, Spotify. If
31:28
Speaker 1: you enjoy the show on YouTube. Like the video, subscribe
31:31
Speaker 1: to the channel. We'll be back next week with another
31:33
Speaker 1: episode of Podcast on the Brink.