Latest / Closing Market Report / Jul 23 | Closing Market Report

Transcript

Jul 23 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260723 The July 23, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report examines commodity market volatility, political gridlock affecting agricultural policy, and highly concerning weather forecasts. Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net highlights new contract highs in November soybeans, attributing current market dynamics to geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea and Iran, combined with the threat of dry weather in the Corn Belt. In political news, legislative progress on the Farm Bill and other GOP initiatives remains stalled due to Mitch McConnell's health-related absence and the passing of Lindsey Graham, which has left Republicans without key committee majorities. Meanwhile, the Renewable Fuels Association is heavily promoting new polling data demonstrating 73 percent bipartisan voter support for year-round E15 gasoline sales in an effort to overcome Senate roadblocks. Finally, Mike Tannura of Tstorm Weather warns that while 30-day rainfall totals appear average, the most recent 15 days were historically dry, and predictive models for the next 14 days project potentially record-breaking heat and drought conditions across major corn and soybean producing regions. 02:06 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net 07:55 McConnell's Absence, Graham's Death Hobble GOP Initiatives 09:48 RFA Uses Voter Polling Data to Support E15 17:02 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm Weather --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 23rd day of July 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He’s at AgMarket.net. I’ll update you on the agricultural news for the day. We’ll also hear about a push from the RFA, that’s the Renewable Fuels Association, using data from voter polling that suggests E15 is popular among the electorate. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mike Tannura. He’s at Tstorm Weather, and we’ll do all of that on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. Announcer: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: September corn today at $4.64, up 2 cents. December $4.87 and a half, two and three-quarters higher. The margin at $5.03, up 2 and 3/4. September soybeans $12.31, a nickel higher. November up four and three-quarters, settlement price there at $12.43 and three-quarters, went to $12.49 and a half. That’s a new contract high for the November beans. Bean meal down $1.70. Bean oil 11 cents higher. Soft red winter wheat in the December 9 cents lower for the day at $7.13 and 3/4. The hard red at $7.75 and 3/4, down three and a quarter cents on the afternoon. Live cattle futures up $2.17 and a half cents. Feeders $3.65 higher. Lean hogs up 55 cents. The gasoline on the RBOB wholesale price at $3.34 and 2/10 of a cent, up 9 and 7/10. And the crude oil, the West Texas at $92.63, $5.80 higher on this Thursday afternoon. 02:06 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace on a day when there were new contract highs made in the November soybeans. What have you been following most closely for the week? Matt Bennett: Clearly, there are a lot of outside influences going on here, Todd, between what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz, and of course, we’ve still got major issues in the Black Sea region. The wheat market actually backed off here today. I think a lot of it is just it’s been such a march higher here lately. Big update yesterday gave back a little bit here today, but you look over at corn and soybeans, it’s kind of a muted effect. We actually marched higher as far as beans were concerned and made new contract highs. You had November beans trading up there pushing $12.50. Whereas corn is well off its highs still, but at the same time, you’re pushing this $4.90 level earlier today. We were able to get over it just a little bit, backed off somewhat, but still held on to gains for the day. You’ve got a variety of things affecting us. Of course, you can’t ignore weather. The thing about the weather is these forecasts continue to change every six hours depending on who you’re watching, but definitely watching each one of these forecasts very closely right now. It’s definitely a different tale depending on where you’re at. Talking to growers in North and South Dakota, they’re scared to death because they’ve been hot and dry, some of them burning up. They got heat coming back in again this coming weekend. Whereas in our part of the world, a lot of folks have dried out as well, but we’re not nearly as bad off as some of those people in the Northwest. Todd Gleason: At this point, I’m going to guess that most everybody has their clientele list in that 35 to 50 percent sold, or tried to, for both corn and soybeans, I would think. I suspect most producers, given what Greg Johnson told us yesterday about new crop corn sales, are pretty happy still with that. What should they do at this time, if anything, about those standing sales and the unpriced grain that they have? Matt Bennett: If they think on the standing sales that those were profitable levels when they made them—and I would sure hope they were or they wouldn’t have made them—I would let those be for the time being. Now, if they want to take advantage of this rally, we’ve had a lot of folks stepping in and putting a floor into the market just in case this thing falls apart. Obviously, we’ve gotten to levels well above, especially in the case of beans, the areas that people sold at. I know a lot of $11.00 and $11.50 fall delivery beans were sold this year already, whereas you’re looking at $12.00 and above for fall delivery in our part of the world right now. I think you don’t want to let that all get away from you. If you’re not going to sell any more physical, and I understand why you wouldn’t not knowing what August weather is going to be, it probably makes a lot of sense to at least set a standard floor under this market to protect yourself just in case the bottom would fall out at some point. Just looking at the balance sheet, we’ve got a dashboard that we can toggle back and forth. We were looking at it earlier today, and a 53-bushel yield with the USDA’s demand is about 310; that’s what the USDA gave us. But if you took yield up two bushels, it puts you at 532 on a carryout, whereas a 51-bushel yield puts you down at 195. This yield is going to be watched very closely, and as we know, if we enter August on a dry bias, rainfall is going to be super important. Todd Gleason: Because this has been such a dramatic move up, and probably in large part because of the wars both in the Black Sea and Iran you’ve already alluded to at the beginning of our conversation, do you have to watch volume on a given day to suggest when a blowout top might come if such a thing were to take place, and are you on guard for that at this time? Matt Bennett: There’s no doubt. The thing about a blow-off top a lot of times is you’re going to see everything kind of comes to some sort of a climax with weather. Obviously, outside markets can all change at the same time. But if you do see a weather forecast tomorrow morning that says most of the Corn Belt is going to get an inch of rain, that changes things very rapidly. If that happens, then certainly you want to be watching as far as volume is concerned. The thing that I watch more so than just volume is the commitment of traders, certainly showing that the funds have gotten back long corn and are building their long back on soybeans. I think a lot of that has got to do with weather. As a producer trying to keep a handle on all those different items and how they might impact you, sometimes it can be rather confusing. My best advice for growers is once again, have some sort of a limited risk scenario put into place for your farm that gives you flexibility if this thing ends up turning on you. Todd Gleason: Anything else before I let you go for the day? Matt Bennett: No, it’ll be interesting the next couple of weeks. They’re going to be very important as far as weather is concerned, and by all means, I would be updating your profitability, your breakevens, and make sure that you’ve got something put into place to sleep at night. Todd Gleason: Thanks much. Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Todd Gleason: That’s Matt Bennett. He is with AgMarket.net. 07:55 McConnell’s Absence, Graham’s Death Hobble GOP Initiatives Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, Republicans will continue to lack a majority on the Senate Agriculture Committee, likely into September, further delaying action on a farm bill and other GOP efforts. Senator Mitch McConnell remains in rehab after recovering from a fall that left the 84-year-old briefly unconscious, hospitalized, and suffering mild pneumonia. McConnell’s doctors have said he’s not ready to return to the Senate just yet, depriving the Senate Ag Committee of its tie-breaking vote. Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa was asked if that upends GOP efforts to take up a farm bill before the August recess. Charles Grassley: Short of getting a bipartisan agreement, the answer is yes. Todd Gleason: There will not be a bipartisan agreement. This is in part because Democrats on the Ag Committee are demanding a delay. That’s so that more states can put their payment error rates in order. Here’s top Ag Democrat, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar: All we’re suggesting, and the red state governors and a number of them are suggesting, is let’s get updated data, give us some time to comply, and bring our error rates down. Todd Gleason: But McConnell’s absence has compounded the GOP push to move ahead, even on a party-line basis. September will see other fights over funding the government and the Iran war. Here’s Armed Services Democrat, Senator Tim Kaine. Tim Kaine: The families who have lost their loved ones aren’t the only ones asking why. People are asking why they’re paying so much more for gasoline. Why farmers are having to pay so much more for fertilizer. Todd Gleason: Underpinning these fights are the midterms with Democrats sensing a chance to take back control in one or both chambers, giving them less incentive to make deals on most GOP initiatives. 09:48 RFA Uses Voter Polling Data to Support E15 Todd Gleason: Up next, rising fuel prices and uncertainty in the global energy markets is renewing attention on E15 gasoline. The Renewable Fuels Association’s new voter poll shows record support for allowing the higher ethanol fuel blend to be sold year-round. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper aims to use the data to get year-round E15 legislation across the finish line in the Senate. Here’s Stephanie Hoff from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting. Stephanie Hoff: RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper aims to use the data to get year-round E15 across the finish line in the Senate. Geoff Cooper: We’ve been sharing these results, of course, with members of Congress, especially on the Senate side, to remind them that your constituents want year-round access to E15. They understand it’s a lower-cost fuel, they understand it’s going to save them some money at the pump, and I think one of the reasons we’re seeing these record levels of support and such interest in E15 right now is what’s happening in the Middle East. Stephanie Hoff: The poll results show that support is not limited to one political party. Geoff Cooper: People who identify as Republicans, 73 percent of them support passage of this legislation in Congress. And guess what? On the Democratic side, 73 percent of them also support passage of that legislation. So it is not a partisan issue, and I think we saw evidence of that when the House voted on this legislation back in May. It was a bipartisan vote. We had almost as many Democrats voting in favor of passing that bill as we did Republicans, and they were from all over the country. I think this is one of those few issues today that is not partisan and is certainly something that everyone can agree on: we need to be embracing domestically produced fuels, we need to boost our energy security, and we need to give consumers lower-cost options at the pump. Stephanie Hoff: Cooper says affordability remains one of the strongest selling points for the fuel. Geoff Cooper: So today, about 5,000 stations are already selling E15. That sounds like a lot, but then when you consider that nationwide there are somewhere around 120,000 gas stations, it’s still a very small share of the market. But where it is being offered, we’re seeing E15 priced often 20 cents, sometimes 30 cents, sometimes 40 cents, sometimes more than that lower than E10, which is the regular gasoline that everybody is used to. When you can show lawmakers, and certainly when you can show consumers, a 25 or 30-cent per gallon savings with E15, that gets their attention, and it’s something they’re very interested in pursuing. Stephanie Hoff: Beyond potential savings at the pump, Cooper says E15 also offers environmental benefits. Geoff Cooper: There’s been a tremendous amount of research done on this. E15 is the most tested fuel in the history of the United States, and all that research shows that you get emissions benefits or emissions reductions when you replace E10 gasoline with E15. You’re reducing emissions of those tailpipe pollutants that lead to smog formation and cause asthma and other human health issues. It also reduces greenhouse gas emissions, which of course is very important, especially for members of Congress on the left side of the aisle. So it is a good story, it’s a win-win, it’s lower prices for consumers, and it’s cleaner air. Stephanie Hoff: Cooper also addresses one of the most common concerns surrounding E15: its impact on fuel economy. Geoff Cooper: We see lots of myths and misinformation out there that, well, if we use E15, you’re going to have to fill up your car more often because it has less energy density than E10. Again, this has been tested, and not by us. It’s been tested by the University of California Riverside, it’s been tested by the automakers, it’s been tested by the Department of Energy, and they find there may be a one percent difference in fuel economy. So you might get 30 miles per gallon using E10, that means you’d be expected to get 29 and a half miles per gallon with E15. You’re really not giving anything up. In fact, some of the research shows that some vehicles get better fuel economy when they’re using E15. It’s really a non-issue, but it is one of those myths that’s out there that we have to continue to push back on. Stephanie Hoff: He says the message is resonating well beyond traditional ethanol-producing states. Geoff Cooper: Typically, what happens when you walk into those offices is they say, well, we don’t really have a dog in the fight. We don’t really have much corn production, we don’t have a lot of corn farmers in our states, we don’t have any ethanol plants. And our response to that is, but you do have drivers. You have lots of working families that are looking for lower-cost options at the pump. This polling data bears that out. It shows that they are very interested in this issue and they want access to this lower-cost fuel. Typically, by the time we leave those offices, that message has resonated, and those Senators understand that, yes, this could be an option to help voters, help consumers in my state reduce their spending at the pump. Stephanie Hoff: The RFA is urging the Senate to take up the legislation that would allow year-round nationwide sales of E15. The House has already approved the bill, and advocates are now looking for a Senate vehicle to move that bill forward. Geoff Cooper, among them, the president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association. I’m Stephanie Hoff reporting. Todd Gleason: One other item related to this E15 story. While the RFA is using a voter poll to show support for E15 use year-round, it’s not likely to happen, or at least that’s what Chuck Grassley says, the Senator from Iowa who’s been a staunch advocate for E15 and ethanol throughout his career. This is for the very same reason you heard just a bit earlier in our broadcast as it’s related to the Senate and some of the roadblocks set up by Mitch McConnell’s health absence, and Lindsey Graham’s death, which deprived the GOP of a working majority on the Appropriations Committee this time where the President seeks Iran war funding, E15, and new farm aid. 17:02 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm Weather Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to what conditions have been like across the Corn Belt for the spring and then into really the last month or so. We’re now joined by Mike Tannura. He is with Tstorm Weather. He is the president and CEO there in Naperville, Illinois. That’s tstorm.net online. Hi Mike, thanks for being with us today. I want to take an interesting tact that you suggested simply because I think it’s really important at this very midpoint of the season to look back at least over the last 30 days, if not the 15 days, and talk about what kind of weather we’ve had, what conditions have been like, what rainfall particularly has been like throughout the Corn Belt. Tell me about what you’ve seen historically to begin with. Mike Tannura: Thanks a lot for having me, Todd. There are quite a few different things to talk about. We can run our proprietary data back to 1979 because we’ve made some adjustments to it over the last month or so. After we do that, we can look at rainfall over the last 30 days and weight it by US corn production to get some idea of where we sit. Everything we’re going to talk about here also is pretty similar for soybeans. It’s not exactly the same because corn and soybeans don’t overlap exactly across the US, but you’ll get a pretty good idea of what’s going on. If you just look at rainfall over the last 30 days weighted by US corn production, it’s really nothing all that unusual. Going back with 48 years of record, we’re kind of right in the middle from that 30-day perspective. So you would just say, hey, it looks pretty much okay from that view. But where it gets a little more concerning is if you look at it over the last 15 days. The last 15 days were number seven driest going back to 1979. Now all of a sudden you’re saying, well wait a minute, is it getting dry or not? Because I look at it over the last seven days and it says this might be a problem, and if I look at it over the last 30 days it says well things are okay. That’s kind of the big challenge I think from a marketing perspective, is which one of these is going to end up driving the yield. Probably, Todd, the most concerning thing about all of this is the forecast. If we look at the GFS model and the European model and we take all the runs—these models are run in a whole bunch of different ways. Basically, the European model can be run about 50 different ways and the GFS model can be run about 30 different ways. If we look at the runs from earlier last night, the ones that pretty much were driving the market action today until the newer ones came out, those early ones were basically painting a pretty dire picture. If we weight the average rainfall from these two models over the next 14 days by US corn production, it ends up being the number two driest on record for the next 14 days. That gives you some idea of just how concerning this is from a lack of rain standpoint. If that all comes to fruition, you combine that with what’s been going on over the last two weeks, and now all of a sudden you kind of have a problem because that’s a whole month with a lot of dry weather. Todd Gleason: From your experience, do you think these models will verify? Mike Tannura: You always run into trouble if you just make your entire forecast based on a model and just kind of run with it. But the thing here is that this is kind of an important data point because if you have two models kind of showing you the same thing, and you’ve run one of them 30 times and you’ve run another one of them 50 times, and they’re all kind of still pointing in the same direction, you have to have a really good reason to go against them and start forecasting above-normal rainfall or something like that. Our take is that even if these models are too dry, it’s still not going to be wetter than normal over the next two weeks. That’d be pretty unlikely. I know that might be a little bit surprising because as we sit here today, there’s been some rain overnight in Nebraska and in Kansas, and we’ll see some tonight in parts of the western and southern Corn Belt, even into southern Illinois. So it’s not like this is a completely dry forecast. But once we get beyond these next few days, we can see there are two things that are going to happen. Number one is that we’ll have a couple of cold fronts move through the eastern US that’ll bring drier air southward, and that’s not really a great recipe for rain when you have drier air in place. The other thing is that we have a big upper-level high developing in the Plains this weekend and then dominating next week. That’s going to block energy from passing and it’s going to produce some pretty big heat. We’ll see high temperatures easily in the 100s in the Dakotas and in Nebraska, and we might even see temperatures above 105 along the western edge of corn and soybeans in those states. This is not a situation where it’s cool and dry; this is going to be kind of the more classic hot and dry, at least in western growing areas. Are these models going to verify exactly? They never do, but you just need to get some perspective on this. If they’re a little bit too dry, then maybe we end up being say around number five or number ten driest of the next two weeks. But if they’re too wet, then you’re easily number one driest on record going forward over the next 14 days. This is the kind of stuff we talk about with our clients, and this is something you need to watch obviously. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, Mike. We appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next week. Mike Tannura: That sounds great, Todd. Todd Gleason: Mike Tannura is with Tstorm Weather at Tstormweather.net online. He is in Naperville, Illinois, and joined us on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Don’t forget that we’ll record our Commodity Week program this afternoon and post it to our website, probably not until 7 o’clock or after this evening, but you should find it there. The address is willag.org. You may hear the whole of the program tomorrow afternoon during this hour on our home station, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend as well. You have a great afternoon. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.