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Navigating the Q3 Finish Line: Jobs, Hedges, and AI · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , everyone !
• 0:02
  I am your host , Penny Profit , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:05
  It is currently 6 am on Sunday , September 27th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:12
  I am so glad you could join me as we prepare for what looks like a very busy week ahead .
• 0:18
  We are officially entering the final week of the third quarter , and if you have been watching the charts lately , you know things are getting interesting .
• 0:26
  Historically , this is a highvolatility period .
• 0:29
  Professional fund managers are doing what we call window dressing , which is basically just tidying up their portfolios to make their quarterly reports look as good as possible for investors .
• 0:40
  We are also in that seasonal transition where the September Slump starts to hand the baton over to the October Effect .
• 0:47
  It is a time to be alert , but don't worry , we are going to walk through it together .
• 0:53
  Let's talk about the big elephant in the room : the macroeconomic data .
• 0:58
  This coming week is extremely dataheavy , centered primarily around the September Jobs Report coming out this Friday , October 2nd .
• 1:07
  In this late stage of 2026 , the market is incredibly sensitive to the labor market .
• 1:13
  Everyone is watching to see if the unemployment rate ticks higher than the projected 4.2 percent .
• 1:19
  If it does , we expect expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November to really take off .
• 1:27
  If you want a specific way to play this , keep a very close eye on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT .
• 1:36
  If that jobs data comes in weak , we will likely see TLT rally as yields drop .
• 1:42
  But if the economy still looks a bit too hot , TLT might see some selling pressure .
• 1:48
  Moving over to the sectors , let's look at Technology .
• 1:51
  The Invesco QQQ Trust has seen a small three percent pullback over the last two weeks because people are a bit worried about valuations .
• 2:01
  We have moved past the hardware boom of a few years ago and are now fully in the AI Implementation phase of 2026 .
• 2:09
  The focus is on software monetization .
• 2:13
  Giants like Microsoft and Nvidia are entering their quiet periods before earnings , so expect some sideways movement for the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLK .
• 2:25
  We are seeing investors rotate out of those highpriced growth stocks and into defensive value to protect their gains .
• 2:31
  Speaking of defense , Healthcare is looking like a great safe haven right now .
• 2:36
  The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLV , is a strong play for this transition .
• 2:43
  We are actually expecting some big news from companies like Vertex Pharmaceuticals at the Global Biotech Summit next week regarding CRISPR therapies and AI diagnostics .
• 2:54
  If the broader market , like the SPY , takes a bit of a tumble at the end of the month , XLV could be your best friend .
• 3:01
  Meanwhile , Real Estate is back in the conversation .
• 3:04
  The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , or VNQ , has become a dividend favorite again as the housing market has stabilized .
• 3:14
  Just remember that VNQ is very sensitive to the 10year Treasury yield , so Friday's news will affect it too .
• 3:21
  Now , for some concrete recommendations for your toolkit .
• 3:25
  For a core , allweather approach , I actually prefer the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI , over the standard SPY right now .
• 3:34
  VTI provides exposure to midcap and smallcap stocks that often benefit from mean reversion when the big tech names in the QQQ take a breather .
• 3:44
  If you are looking for a hedge , consider Gold through the SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD .
• 3:50
  We have seen some geopolitical tensions in the Green Energy Corridor in Central Asia and Africa , which is affecting supply chains .
• 3:58
  Buying GLD on any dip below its 50day moving average could be a smart move to protect against inflation or any surprises on Friday .
• 4:07
  And for those looking for growth outside the U.S.
• 4:10
  , check out the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF , known as VWO .
• 4:16
  Some of these economies are seeing growth rates over 6 percent while the U.S.
• 4:20
  dollar is showing signs of latecycle fatigue .
• 4:23
  To wrap things up , think of this as a transition week .
• 4:27
  Between the quarterend rebalancing and the big jobs report , the best strategy is a bit of a waitandsee .
• 4:33
  Historically , these last three days of September can be pretty choppy .
• 4:37
  My advice is to keep a little extra cash on hand using something stable like the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , or BND .
• 4:47
  Let the dust settle , see how the employment data looks on Friday , and then we will be ready to deploy capital on Monday , October 5th , when the new quarter officially kicks off .
• 4:59
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader .
• 5:01
  I'm Penny Profit , and I'll see you next time !