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Michael Saylor and Strategy are SELLING Bitcoin! | Bull Run Canceled? | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  So Michael Saylor, the man who made Never Sell your Bitcoin,
• 0:03
  his entire personality, the guy who looked into a camera with
• 0:07
  the intensity of a man who found God and in a Denny's parking lot
• 0:12
  and told you, told me, told everybody this.
• 0:16
  And I promise not to. Sell the Bitcoin.
• 0:19
  And and so we're in the business of not selling Bitcoin.
• 0:21
  We got very good at it. We have a PhD in Hodling, you
• 0:26
  know, And so I figure, why don't we just huddle for the thousands
• 0:30
  of companies instead of try to convince everybody else to do
• 0:34
  what we're doing and convince their shareholders and their
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  board of directors. Well, he just got on an earnings
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  call last night and said, and I quote, we will probably sell
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  some Bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market and
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  send the message that we did it inoculate the market.
• 0:50
  That sounds like a pharmaceutical company, not a
• 0:53
  Bitcoin maxi. What's next, Michael?
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  We're just going to sell a little bit of Bitcoin to build
• 0:58
  herd immunity. The Internet is melting.
• 1:02
  Poly market odds of strategy selling Bitcoin before year end
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  shot from 10% to 48% overnight. Micro strategy dumped 4% after
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  hours. Bitcoin Twitter is in full civil
• 1:14
  war mode. And look, I'll be honest with
• 1:17
  you. My first reaction was the same
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  as yours. It felt like getting a text from
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  your pastor that says, actually, I've been considering Buddhism,
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  but here's the thing and stay till the end because I'm going
• 1:29
  to explain to you why even if Sailor has completely lost it,
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  Bitcoin doesn't care, not even a little bit.
• 1:37
  So let's get to it. So dude, OK, so yesterday's
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  strategy holds their Q 12026 earnings call and the numbers,
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  Oh buddy, the numbers net loss 12.5 billion with AB like B for
• 1:54
  boy, that's a lot of red. Operating loss 14.5 billion,
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  third consecutive earnings miss in a row.
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  Now before you jump off a building, this is almost
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  entirely unrealized. It's paper losses under the new
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  gap fair value accounting rules. They have to mark their Bitcoin
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  to market price every quarter. Bitcoin went from 87 K to 68 K
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  during Q1. That's a $14.46 billion paper
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  hit that runs straight through the income statement even though
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  they didn't sell a single set. It's kind of like if your house
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  dropped in zello value by 200 K and your accountant made you
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  report that as a loss on your taxes.
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  You'd be like, dude, still living in the house.
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  But the numbers weren't the headline.
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  The headline was what came out of Sailor's mouth.
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  You buy Bitcoin with credit, you let it appreciate and then you
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  sell Bitcoin to pay the dividend and as long as you're you're
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  issuing credit and access of the break even point then this
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  business works and and grows forever.
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  A Bitcoin development company, Michael, you're not developing
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  Bitcoin, you're buying Bitcoin. That's like calling yourself a
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  gold development company because you have a big safe God man.
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  Then CEO Fong Lee comes in with the kill shot.
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  We will sell Bitcoin when it's advantageous to the company.
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  We're not going to sit back and just say we will never sell the
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  Bitcoin. Hold on.
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  And six, not necessarily most importantly, but maybe most
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  notable, we will sell Bitcoin when it's advantageous to the
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  company, right? We're not going to sit back and
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  and, and just say, you know, we'll never sell the Bitcoin.
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  We want to be net aggregators of Bitcoin, increasing our total
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  Bitcoin, but more importantly increasing our Bitcoin per share
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  because we think that is what is going to be most accretive long
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  term for STR and for the coming. Cool, cool.
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  It's fine. It's cool.
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  Everything's fine. So the guy who built the world's
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  largest corporate Bitcoin stack, 818,334 BTC, approximately 4% of
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  all Bitcoin that will ever exist, just gave Wall Street the
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  green light to price in a sell. Great.
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  Love it. Huge fan.
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  Oh, put down the bottle. OK, before you panic, let me
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  show you how this machine actually works because that's
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  where it gets interesting. OK, so to understand why Sailor
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  said what he said, you need to understand the Rube Goldberg
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  machine he's built. Because most people, even smart
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  people, don't get how strategy actually works.
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  They think it's just a guy buying Bitcoin.
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  It's not. It is financial engineering on
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  an almost absurd scale. Here's the basic loop.
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  Step one strategy. Sell stock or preferred shares
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  to investors. Step 2.
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  Take the cash. Buy Bitcoin.
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  Step three, Bitcoin goes up, stock goes up with it.
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  Step 4. Sell more stock at an even
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  higher premium. Step 5.
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  Buy more Bitcoin. Loop.
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  Repeat forever. It's like a infinite money
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  glitch. As long as Bitcoin keeps going
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  up and people keep buying the stock at a premium, which is a
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  pretty big if, right? We'll get to that.
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  Now here's where Sailor got really creative.
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  He didn't just sell regular stock, he created a whole
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  financial buffet of products to suck capital from every corner
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  of Wall Street. He's got STRK strike 8%
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  dividend, STRF strike 10% dividend no conversion, STRD
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  stride 10% dividend, non cumulative STRC stretch variable
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  rated 11.5% and adjust monthly 8.5 billion of this stuff
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  outstanding. And all of these pay dividends
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  in cash. Not Bitcoin, not stock cash.
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  Total annual dividend bill across all preferred classes
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  over $1 billion a year. You know what strategies actual
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  software business generates 60 to 70 million.
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  That's like having 100,000 a year mortgage payment and a
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  lemonade stand that makes 6 grand.
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  So how do they pay a billion in dividends with 70 million in
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  revenue? By selling more stock, more
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  preferred shares. It's a recursive loop.
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  The machine feeds itself, and here's the number that explains
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  everything. The magic number, it's called M
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  NAV, The multiple net asset value.
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  Basically, how much more is the market paying for strategy stock
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  compared to the Bitcoin it holds?
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  Right now, M NAV is 1.28 X. The market pays $0.28 premium
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  for every dollar of Bitcoin inside strategy.
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  When M NAV is above 1.22 X, selling new shares to buy
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  Bitcoin is accretive. It's a good deal.
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  You're selling expensive paper and buying cheap Bitcoin.
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  The machine works. When M NAV drops below 1.22 X,
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  selling shares actually hurts shareholders.
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  And at that point, selling Bitcoin to pay the bills is
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  literally the smarter move. Allegedly, Fong Lee said it
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  himself below 1.22 XM NAV is actually more accretive for us
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  to sell Bitcoin and pay off our dividends.
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  So sailors not having a crisis of faith.
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  He's reading a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet says at this
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  price, sell Bitcoin. At that price, sell stock.
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  It's a treasury operation, not a betrayal, allegedly.
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  But I get it. It it, it feels like a betrayal.
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  Let's talk about why. All right, let's be honest.
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  I'm not going to sit here and tell you this is all sunshine
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  and rainbows and ponies. There are legitimate concerns.
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  Let's run them down. Bear .1 The brand is cooked.
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  Never sell. It wasn't just a strategy, it
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  was like a religion. It was what separated Sailor
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  from every other suit on Wall Street.
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  People bought micro Strategy specifically because of the
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  conviction the Diamond Hands premium.
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  At its peak, Micro Strategy traded at 4X the value of its
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  Bitcoin. Four times people were paying
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  $4.00 for $1.00 of Bitcoin just because Sailor said he'd never
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  sell. Now M NAV is 1.28 X and he's out
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  here talking about inoculating the market.
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  Bear point #2 The recursion has an exit door and it's labeled
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  panic. The machine works when everyone
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  has confidence. Investors buy stocks, strategy
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  buys Bitcoin. Bitcoin goes up, more investors
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  buy stock. But what if confidence breaks?
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  What if Bitcoin drops 50% and nobody wants to buy micro
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  strategy or stretch? The machine stops, but the
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  dividend bills don't stop. A billion dollars a year, every
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  year, whether Bitcoin's at 100K or 30K.
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  And then you're not selling Bitcoin because the spreadsheet
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  told you to. You're selling it because you
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  have to at the worst possible price.
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  During a bear market with everyone watching December 2022,
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  they sold 700 Ford BTC at $16,776, the absolute bottom.
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  That's not a flex. That may be a bit of a
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  cautionary tale. Bear .3 the S&P said junk.
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  The S&P Global gave strategy a junk credit rating.
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  They specifically warned that strategies convertible debt
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  might mature during a Bitcoin stress event, forcing them to
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  liquidate at depressed prices. This isn't me saying it.
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  This isn't isn't some random Bitcoin Twitter account.
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  That's the S&P Bear point #4 the losses we're getting hard to
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  ignore. 12.5 billion net loss, third consecutive miss.
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  Yes, it's unrealized. Yes, it's mark to market.
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  But at some point, Wall Street stops caring about the
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  explanation and starts caring about the number.
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  And the number is 12 billion in red.
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  So yeah, I hear you. The bear case is real.
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  But let me walk you off the ledge my friend, because when
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  you actually look at the details, this story is way less
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  scary than the headline. Full point #1 he'd be selling a
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  rounding error. Sailor called it inoculation.
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  You know what inoculation is? A tiny controlled dose. 818,334
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  Bitcoin and growing. If he sells .5% that's 4000
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  Bitcoin about 327,000,000. If he sells one percent, 8000
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  Bitcoin 654,000,000. The Bitcoin spot market trades
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  billions every single day. ETF inflows regularly exceed
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  that on busy days. A 4000 Bitcoin sell is like, I
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  don't even know. It's like it's draining A
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  teaspoon out of Lake MI and running to Twitter screaming the
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  lake is drying up. Bull point #2 There are
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  literally no margin calls. OK, I need everyone to hear this
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  very clearly because this is the thing most people are getting
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  wrong. Strategies. 8.2 billion in debt
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  is all unsecured convertible notes maturities from 2027 to
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  2032. None of the Bitcoin is pledged
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  as collateral. None.
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  There is no price at which strategy gets liquidated.
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  There is no margin call if Bitcoin dropped to literally
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  $1.00. Predators still can't force a
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  sale. Sailor said this himself.
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  The man structured his debt like a paranoid genius.
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  This is not 3 arrows capital. This is not Celsius.
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  This is not some D Gen. with 100X leverage.
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  The Bitcoin is sitting there unencumbered, no strings
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  attached. Bull point #3 They got 2.2
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  billion in cash in the bank. That covers roughly 2 1/2 years
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  of dividend obligations at current rates with 0 revenue.
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  They're not scrambling. They're not desperate sailors
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  not selling Bitcoin because the lights are about to go off.
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  He's selling because the math says it's smart at a certain M
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  NAV level bull point #4 they're still massively net buyers.
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  In Q1 alone, 89,599 BTC bought for 7.3 billion.
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  In Q2 so far, another 56,235 BTC.
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  That's 145,834 Bitcoin purchased in 2026.
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  Bull point #5 the tax hack. Here's another thing nobody's
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  talking about. Strategy has 2.2 billion and
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  unrealized tax benefits on their balance sheet.
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  By selling specific high cost basis Bitcoin coins they bought
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  at 80K87K. They harvest capital losses for
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  tax benefits. It's not a loss, it's a
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  deduction. Their accountant is probably
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  high fiving them. Maybe Sailor and Fang Li aren't
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  breaking a promise. They're they're doing calculus.
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  OK so here's where we get to the real talk.
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  The part I've been wanting to say this entire episode, but
• 12:49
  before we bring it home today, look at our likes 3 or 4 times
• 12:53
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• 12:54
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  OK, here we go. Let's say the absolute worst
• 14:51
  case plays out. Let's go full doom.
• 14:53
  Bitcoin crashes. Strategy can't raise capital.
• 14:56
  M NAV collapses. Sailor has to dump 10s of
• 14:59
  thousands of Bitcoin onto the market just to keep the lights
• 15:02
  on. Full panic mode.
• 15:03
  The Poly market bet hits. The bears were right.
• 15:06
  You know what happens to Bitcoin?
• 15:10
  Absolutely nothing. A new block every 10 minutes.
• 15:13
  Same as yesterday. Same as it was when Mount G Ox
• 15:16
  lost 850,000 bitcoins. Same as it was when China banned
• 15:20
  mining 17 times. Same as it was when FTX imploded
• 15:24
  and everyone said crypto was dead.
• 15:25
  Same as it was when your favorite influencer got
• 15:28
  liquidated. Same as always, 21,000,000 proof
• 15:33
  of work. No CEO, no earnings calls, no
• 15:35
  preferred stock, no dividends, no board of directors.
• 15:38
  They can vote to change the rules.
• 15:39
  Siphedina Moose, the man who literally wrote the Bitcoin
• 15:42
  standard, the man who orange pilled sailor himself said it
• 15:45
  best. If Michael Saylor ends up with
• 15:47
  10 million Bitcoin, what is he going to do?
• 15:50
  He can't hard fork it. He can't print more.
• 15:52
  If he acts against shareholders, they sell and buy Bitcoin
• 15:56
  somewhere else. The market mechanism protects
• 15:58
  itself. That's the whole game.
• 16:00
  Game. That's the whole point.
• 16:01
  Bitcoin was designed for exactly this scenario.
• 16:05
  An entity gets too big, gets too greedy, gets too stupid.
• 16:09
  The protocol doesn't flinch, the difficulty adjust.
• 16:12
  The blocks keep coming, and the Bitcoin flows to whoever values
• 16:15
  it most. So let me say this as clearly as
• 16:18
  I possibly can. If Michael Saylor wants to sell
• 16:21
  Bitcoin, that's his problem. Not Bitcoins problem.
• 16:24
  Not your problem if you're holding your own keys.
• 16:27
  If Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company on earth,
• 16:30
  decides to liquidate its entire stack tomorrow, you know what
• 16:34
  thousands and of people are going to be doing?
• 16:37
  They're going to be buying the dip with a smile on their face
• 16:41
  because every Bitcoin they sell gets picked up by someone who
• 16:44
  actually understands what they're holding.
• 16:46
  Someone who doesn't need a CFO to tell them when to buy and
• 16:49
  when to sell. Someone who's been stacking
• 16:51
  through every crash, every FUD cycle, every Bitcoin is dead
• 16:56
  headline for years. More Bitcoin for us.
• 16:59
  BlackRock wants to dump more for US.
• 17:01
  Government wants to sell more for us.
• 17:04
  Sailor wants to inoculate the market.
• 17:06
  Cool, more for us. They can all choose to lose.
• 17:09
  That's their right. Oh, and if you're serious about
• 17:11
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• 17:14
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• 17:18
  21st through the 23rd. This is the conference for
• 17:21
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• 17:25
  real Bitcoin infrastructure. Keynotes, panels, massive Expo
• 17:29
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• 17:31
  industry happen here. Use promo code Simply Bitcoin
• 17:34
  for 20% off your tickets at miningdisrupt.com and we'll see
• 17:39
  you in Miami. Bitcoin is not a company that
• 17:42
  goes bankrupt. It's not a stock that gets
• 17:44
  delisted. It's not Aceo's reputation.
• 17:47
  It's not an earnings call. It's not an M NAV multiple.
• 17:50
  Bitcoin is money, sound money, the hardest, most
• 17:54
  uncompromising, most incorruptible money ever created
• 17:58
  in the history of civilization. And it doesn't give a single SAT
• 18:02
  what Michael Saylor does with this quarterly dividend
• 18:05
  obligations. Stay humble, stack SAT
• 18:07
  subscribe, give us a PAMP. Let us know what you think down
• 18:10
  below and I'll catch you all next time.
• 18:12
  Love you guys if you prefer to go down with the ship.