Latest / The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
Why the Fed Is Watching the Ten-Year Breakeven Rate
The ten-year breakeven inflation rate has dipped to 2.31 percent, down from 2.33 last week. That small move might be the most telling signal in the bond market right now. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what breakevens actually measure, why the Fed's favorite inflation gauge—core PCE—is running hotter than the market's expectations, and what it means when the two start to diverge. They look at how the five-year breakeven has drifted lower even as the ten-year holds near 2.3, and why that flattening curve is a quiet vote of confidence in the Fed's path. With the effective…
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