Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Beirut battles for its future | feat. Ronnie Chatah

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Beirut battles for its future | feat. Ronnie Chatah · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Good morning, sabah al-Hir, Bokim-Tove, Subul-Hir, it's Friday, October 7, second, non-October 7.
0:19
[SPEAKER_01]: That's in a couple of days.
0:20
[SPEAKER_01]: The Multi-Front War in the Middle East today is 1,091 days old.
0:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Jonathan Shanzer, welcome back to the FTD morning brief.
0:30
[SPEAKER_01]: The reports continue to roll in about that fly Dubai flight that was almost hijacked by an almighty pilot.
0:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We're still trying to figure out how he was radicalized, but it's scary to think about the process of indoctrination that led to this incident.
0:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Authorities are still trying to figure out how an almighty national was it even loud to fly that route?
0:50
[SPEAKER_01]: They're also trying to figure out how many other Omani pilots are on staff for the airline and let's be honest.
0:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Most people are just trying to figure out where Omani is on the map.
0:57
[SPEAKER_01]: No more hiding and plain sight for the regime in Muscat.
1:00
[SPEAKER_01]: See what I did there?
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Some are saying that the concern over Oman is over-hyped.
1:05
[SPEAKER_01]: not me.
1:06
[SPEAKER_01]: The Omanee say they are the Switzerland of the Middle East, but as I think we all know, Switzerland was not even a good look for Switzerland back in the day.
1:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe not even today.
1:15
[SPEAKER_01]: The Omanee's you were called, post a Houthi base with IRGC figures coming and going in that country.
1:21
[SPEAKER_01]: That really needs to stop, but back to the hijacking.
1:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's the upside.
1:25
[SPEAKER_01]: This was the first plain mode of Israelis to land in Saudi Arabia.
1:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, this one is inspired by a conversation I had with my students in a class I'm teaching this semester some giving credit where it's due.
1:42
[SPEAKER_01]: How exactly did the Omani pilot on that diverted Dubai flight get radicalized lots of speculation right now and much of it points to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
1:51
[SPEAKER_01]: President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran very hard.
1:54
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a quote if the evidence bears out.
1:57
[SPEAKER_01]: The near-high jack and comes on the heels of that thwarted attack in the UK, which authorities also believe was linked to the Iranian regime.
2:04
[SPEAKER_01]: It's fair to ask right now.
2:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Have we reached a new phase in this war?
2:08
[SPEAKER_01]: The phase where the Iranian regime understands that it's losing on the military and economic fronts, and even it's attempts to shut down the straight of Hormuz or failing, with that understanding, maybe it's just decided to take a page out of its own proxy guidebook and turn to terrorism.
2:23
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only a theory right now.
2:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's not so far fetched.
2:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The regime is hanging on at a pure spite.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: They have no way to win outright.
2:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe they've turned to terrorism as just their final strategy.
2:35
[SPEAKER_01]: What's interesting to me about this theory is that the regime is sponsored terrorist groups for decades.
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, as it finds itself severely degraded, they're barely functioning as a state.
2:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So all that's left is to act like one of their own non-state actors, like Hamas or Hizballar or the Houthis.
2:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Like the terror groups that is wielded by proxy to fight the United States, Israel and other Western nations for so many years.
2:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Did the war against Iran become a war on terror?
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll find out but the indicators seem to suggest we may be heading in that direction.
3:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, for your headline, headline one, the Trump administration overwrote the human rights conditions on $320 million worth of military aid to Egypt.
3:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Cairo has been on the receiving end of billions of dollars of American aid after signing the campaign.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: David Accords back in 1978, a chunk of that aid is subject to
3:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Certain humanitarian rights conditions, but the State Department can issue a waiver on national security grounds.
3:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The Biden administration issued that waiver in 2024, and the Trump administration just did the same citing Egypt's quote, helpful role, and quote, after the launch of Operation Epic.
3:38
[SPEAKER_01]: theory.
3:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I also have to believe that their decision not to join the defense pact with Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia may have earned them this little bonus, but I wouldn't mind seeing the human right situation improved over there in Omad-Dunya as they call it.
3:53
[SPEAKER_01]: The Egyptian people deserve better.
3:55
[SPEAKER_01]: headline two American troops are officially out of Iraq.
3:58
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about this on Wednesday episode when U.S. forces completed their pullout from the country.
4:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, yesterday Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zadi officially announced that his government still intends to disarm Iran back Iraqi militias by June 30th, 2027, a lofty goal, but let's be real.
4:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Zadi may have depleted leverage after the U.S. just bolted between Iraq and a hard place.
4:22
[SPEAKER_01]: see what I did there again?
4:24
[SPEAKER_01]: headline three, the Trump administration is going after a Russia-link shadow banking network that helps around evade sanctions.
4:30
[SPEAKER_01]: It's called the A7 network and by its own account.
4:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It has facilitated over 91.5 billion dollars worth of transactions.
4:38
[SPEAKER_01]: A7 leverages countries, companies rather in third country jurisdictions, bothifying records and documentation to make illicit payments look kosher.
4:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Treasury said, yet to that, and designated A7 as a transnational criminal organization, the aim is to prohibit American financial institutions from processing money transfers connected to sub-agents of A7.
5:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And headline 4, Syria is now eligible to purchase American weaponry, Hazah.
5:06
[SPEAKER_01]: The State Department issued a notice indicating that it's amending the international traffic and arms regulations or ITAR as we call it here in the swamp.
5:15
[SPEAKER_01]: To remove Syria from the list of countries prohibited from purchasing American arms, this is the latest step taken by the Trump Administration to unwind sanctions and bring Syria back in from the cold.
5:27
[SPEAKER_01]: A country led by a purportedly reformed al-Qaeda guy who collaborated with the Islamic State is now getting
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: what could possibly go wrong?
5:39
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's time for our interview.
5:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Today's guest is Ronnie Chata.
5:43
[SPEAKER_01]: He is host of the Beirut Banyan, a long-form podcast on modern Lebanese history, politics and collective memory.
5:51
[SPEAKER_01]: He's also the founder of Walk Beirut, a storytelling driven history tour of the city.
5:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Ronnie's father Muhammad Chata, a former finance minister and outspoken critic of his bala, was assassinated in a Beirut car bombing in 2013.
6:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Ronnie's story is harrowing and incredible, and so are his insights into Lebanon.
6:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So without further ado, let's bring him onto the show.
6:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the FTD Morning Brief, Ronnie Chata.
6:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So pleasure to be on, thank you for having me.
6:24
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, the honor is ours, truly appreciate this.
6:29
[SPEAKER_01]: If I can, and I know it's painful, and I know, well, probably a lot of people have asked you about this over the years, but if you would, just tell us the story of your father.
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, with your permission, I'll limit it to really what he accomplished in his lifetime, particularly the last years of his life,
6:51
[SPEAKER_00]: when he made it his mission to do two things at once.
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Represent Lebanon's cause to the world as a former diplomat, as a former minister and government, as a senior advisor to several prime ministers, making Lebanon's cause not a local one or not a regional one, but an international one.
7:13
[SPEAKER_00]: and also at the same time driving the message home in a broad that Lebanon's abilities or its potential is permanently stifled by a problem like Hezbollah.
7:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, it's not Hezbollah alone.
7:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not only that group, Lebanon on a good day is inefficient,
7:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And perhaps at the end of the day, may well be ungovernable in the way people apply expectations on this country and its capabilities.
7:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But the potential of its people, and at least the spirit of the country, and the country he grew up and remembered fondly, pre-civil war 1950s and 60s.
7:52
[SPEAKER_00]: What he took from that, and I think what his generation took from that,
7:56
[SPEAKER_00]: was that something was missing in his later years and his career here, the belief that Lebanon should be a neutral country, not neutral in culture, not neutral in expression, but neutral when it comes to regional war, and this country should not keep paying that price.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And quickly I'll just go over that he saw the breakdown of the country in the 1970s.
8:20
[SPEAKER_00]: when Feta was here and Lebanon became part of an Arab-Israeli conflict that this country could not control.
8:27
[SPEAKER_00]: He also lived through the 80s and 90s when he saw the Syrian occupation take hold, and permanently not just paralyzed but pervert politics here.
8:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, the last years of his life, Iran inherited, and has bought one particular, and inherited what Syria left behind.
8:45
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think his mission was always one of diplomacy, one of eloquence, and one of thinking, not violence, and not succumbing to the worst instincts of people.
8:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he represented among Lebanon's best.
8:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not saying this because I'm biased or his son.
9:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe this to be true.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a unique figure in Lebanese politics.
9:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Remarkable.
9:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, of course, Iran and his Bala, they take his life because of his beliefs and only because of his beliefs.
9:17
[SPEAKER_00]: No, perhaps unlike other commentators, I don't think expression in itself is at risk in Lebanon.
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: And even in its darkest years, and this includes civil and occupation as well as we're living through right now.
9:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanese can express themselves at least to a point.
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: When it came to Syria's red lines in the 1990s, early 2000s, it became clear that there were certain security lines Lebanese could not cross and Lebanese were killed as a result.
9:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Post 2005, what has been inherited from Syria, is really two portfolios.
9:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon's foreign policy and a meaningful way and also security, not just local security, but government at large.
10:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I think my father never really was under threat because he was speaking his mind.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He was challenging Hasbalah's security domain in the country.
10:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you go far in that direction, you get killed.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Many Lebanese express themselves vehemently against Hasbalah.
10:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Their lives are not at risk.
10:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think the group or for that matter Iran cares too much about what Lebanese think about them and what they say about them.
10:27
[SPEAKER_00]: think security in a serious way, security is the red line.
10:31
[SPEAKER_00]: When that security line is crossed, you get killed in Lebanon.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He did that.
10:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He crossed the line and bravely so, courageously so, actually reached out to the Iranian regime directly, finding a way to resolve Hasba-la's weapons.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: That is unusual in Lebanese affairs where Lebanese pursues diplomacy directly to Iran.
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: That was his last contribution and it's an article, it's a letter that we released as a family to the Wall Street Journal.
10:58
[SPEAKER_00]: It's still online.
10:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a letter to then president Uh, Uruhani.
11:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But that, those are his final words, and sorry to add one more thing, minutes before he was killed, he was on Twitter, and I guess this is being live stream now on X.
11:12
[SPEAKER_00]: If anyone wants to go to his handle, minutes before he was killed in his car, he was writing about his brother inheriting Syrian occupation.
11:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's, he posted that minutes later, his car blew up.
11:26
[SPEAKER_01]: unbelievable, his legacy is preserved by you as you tell his story and we thank you for sharing those memories with us.
11:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so since then, you've become a public figure in your own right, and you have a vision for a different Lebanon.
11:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Tell us what that vision is.
11:54
[SPEAKER_00]: secularism and Lebanon, or for that matter, want to bet on changing Lebanese society for what it is.
12:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there are certain aspects to Lebanon that are going to remain with us until we're both gone.
12:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean this not necessarily in a negative way, I think it's more descriptive.
12:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I sense power sharing and sectarian governance or whatever you want to call it.
12:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Some apply fancier words like, Consosational, Confessional, Democracy.
12:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that will stay.
12:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I think communities will often times, if not most of the time.
12:31
[SPEAKER_00]: seek some form of consensus in the country and get by that way.
12:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a country of minorities.
12:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Even when certain groups may have certain leverage, it still remains one of minorities.
12:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the goal has always been to alleviate those types of insecurities.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: In that sense, I think power sharing is permanent.
12:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And I also think reform, if it ever will happen in my lifetime,
12:59
[SPEAKER_00]: not certain IMF deals that may happen or not, not even certain statements made by the President or Prime Minister at this time.
13:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a real reform, and this includes the full implementation of Lebanon's post-war agreement, the tough if agreement, also requires sectarian reform, too.
13:19
[SPEAKER_00]: There has to be a way for Lebanese to express themselves without getting bogged down by quotas.
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon's parliament is doing two roles at once, behaving like a parliament and a Senate.
13:32
[SPEAKER_00]: The Senate is a missing chamber.
13:34
[SPEAKER_00]: It's in the post-war tariff agreement.
13:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Hasn't been implemented.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: That to me would be an indication that things could move in a better direction.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But neutrality, which is I think was Lebanon's lifeline, neutrality in the 1950s until
13:57
[SPEAKER_00]: For Lebanon to regain that, I think you need local, regional, and international convergence, which hasn't happened yet.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: It may never happen again, but I put expectations there.
14:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Sort of that, this will I think always look like and feel like an increasingly failed state.
14:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is obviously the concern nobody wants Lebanon to become Somalia on the Mediterranean and and that I think explains a lot of what's going on here right now, but I guess when I think about.
14:28
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, a different Lebanon.
14:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't want to put words in your mouth.
14:32
[SPEAKER_01]: You can tell me whether this is right or wrong.
14:34
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just, I think about whether Lebanese nationalism can supersede the sectarian interests of the country.
14:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so much of it is just dominated by Are you Sonny?
14:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you Shia?
14:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you Maranite?
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And that seems to dominate above, well, that flag
14:57
[SPEAKER_01]: move towards a bigger, all-encompassing nationalism in Lebanon, is that the answer?
15:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Perhaps yes and no at the same time.
15:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I think most Lebanese self-identify as Lebanese enough today.
15:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not historically.
15:17
[SPEAKER_00]: and maybe not all at the same time.
15:20
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the majority of Lebanese want a quiet functioning state.
15:25
[SPEAKER_00]: For me, that's good enough.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I sense the no part would be less on Lebanese identity or less on Lebanese society.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I sense that any country given our circumstance would behave this way under immense pressure.
15:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you just let me compare,
15:46
[SPEAKER_00]: The way Lebanon operates under Iranian dominion is perhaps closer to a way a small eastern European country would operate under Soviet security sphere influence.
15:58
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not much more, I think that can be done, even when that security sphere is lessening and diminishing.
16:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm talking about Lebanon today.
16:15
[SPEAKER_00]: or even at times use violence when necessary, any proactive state measure.
16:21
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not at that, we haven't crossed the line.
16:25
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, and this is where I can maybe take the conversation away from nationalism and more to what this war really is about.
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I think these realities are taken care of matters on their terms alone.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think war is necessarily
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And the end, producing the results that Lebanese or some Lebanese would like to see.
16:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason I'm saying this here without you prompting this question is that
16:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon's interests have been completely, completely killed off by what Hasbalullah was able to do over the last two decades.
17:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have leadership in any serious meaningful way today.
17:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You have managers or if maybe perhaps even crisis managers that travel the world, we have the president and prime minister that I've been to Washington, the prime minister just, he was just there a few days ago.
17:21
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not, they're not, they don't have this as their burden.
17:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they are crisis managers.
17:29
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not conflict resolvers.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: The conflict resolvers of yesterday, I think have been killed off by Hezbollah.
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you have, instead, a very tired, increasingly poor,
17:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon that doesn't look like the Lebanon I grew up in, and the late civil war post war years, I increasingly do not relate to my own surroundings here.
17:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't blame Lebanon's for that.
17:54
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a permanent war zone that can turn any country upside down.
17:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll say one more thing, Hazballah could be less popular.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the group can be less popular.
18:04
[SPEAKER_00]: It can be very unpopular.
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Iran would still have their foothold.
18:09
[SPEAKER_00]: This is more security to me than society or identity or expression.
18:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And Lebanese can be quite nationalistic when they want to be as well.
18:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I've seen a lot of nationalism in one country in my lifetime, sometimes it competes where you have people imitating.
18:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Other countries nationalism here like make Lebanon great again.
18:29
[SPEAKER_00]: This has no place in Lebanon yet people do it, they post it, they share it on billboards.
18:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I think nationalism is there.
18:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's the story really.
18:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's security.
18:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Interesting.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I can hear a certain sadness in your voice as you talk about this and I appreciate that you're able to analyze it as, you know, this stuff's heavy.
18:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I get that.
18:52
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's get down to sort of what's happening on the ground right now.
18:56
[SPEAKER_01]: There is this effort to disarm his bullet.
18:58
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about it on this program and I think you and I, when we spoke a few weeks ago, we talked about it to this paradox of Israel being the only
19:06
[SPEAKER_01]: entity that's willing to disarm his Bala.
19:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And yet, Lebanese don't want it, or some Lebanese don't want it because of historic baggage with the Israelis.
19:17
[SPEAKER_01]: How can we disarm his Bala under these circumstances?
19:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I thought about this question before, since I kind of assumed it would come up.
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: It's my opinion, it's my understanding that Israel is not trying to disarm
19:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Or for that matter, trying to do more than make sure a wrong cannot fight Israel ever again from Lebanon.
19:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's the stated mission, even when maybe public posturing.
19:44
[SPEAKER_00]: explains more than that.
19:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the story is there.
19:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Israelis are trying to divorce as much as they can.
19:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Hasballah is an autonomous group from the Iranian regime and whatever is left of both.
19:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's the mission and I don't think the Israelis care for more.
20:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason I'm saying this is that Hasballah can grow.
20:07
[SPEAKER_00]: as these ratings retreat, that's been recent history as well, twice.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: From May of 2000 until July 2006, and then again, post-1701, UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and Unifall's expansion, Hasballa grew.
20:24
[SPEAKER_00]: It grew in relevance and importance to Lebanon, or Lebanese suffocation, but not for Israel.
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: These are the years, Hazballah was venturing off into Syria, training, militia, and Iraq, and Yemen.
20:39
[SPEAKER_00]: That Hazballah, I don't think really matters too much to the Israelis or for that matter.
20:44
[SPEAKER_00]: What Hazballah does to Lebanese officials here, think these Israelis are not doing Lebanon's job.
20:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Israelis are keen on preventing the group from fighting them, and the Israelis have responded in such a destructive way that South Lebanon is uninhabitable, and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese fled their homes more than once, and we see it on the news.
21:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to be in Lebanon to feel how painful it is to be from southern Lebanon.
21:13
[SPEAKER_00]: and see your entire life turned upside down, with the recognition that Hasbano was able to build there and rebuild more than once, turning mountains into bunkers, and that these cities can bond when they need to bond and they will leave when they want to leave too.
21:30
[SPEAKER_00]: That's been repetitive.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see why these cities would not leave again and keep it Hasbano that is armed, but not bothering them directly.
21:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think, and everything we hear out of Israel right now is they don't want an arm.
21:44
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't let it in Southern Lebanon.
21:46
[SPEAKER_01]: They want something very, very different than what we've had up until now.
21:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, I'm sure you're aware Northern Israel, I mean, they're starting to rebuild.
21:57
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's, you know, probably just as devastating, you know, 200, some thousand Israelis left their homes from northern Israel because of his ballas, I mean, the some of the weapons they were firing at Israel, unbelievable destruction there as well for the first year or so of the war.
22:15
[SPEAKER_01]: before that beber operation and Nassarala's liquidation.
22:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's a war zone on both sides.
22:25
[SPEAKER_01]: The question is, can we get to something different?
22:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess that's what we're trying to find out right now.
22:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I happen to believe that these railies are among the few that are actually interested in Lebanese sovereignty.
22:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a weird thing to say out loud,
22:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'll just agree on two points, but I'm going to write them down and then no please disagree right now.
22:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to hear how we're starting to run out of time, but please I'd love to hear your response
22:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'll put those two together then.
22:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not one to try to compare one's pain to another's pain or even compare countries on how they perceive insecurity or clearly has blah, blah presents a direct threat to Lebanon's, not just forget sovereignty for a moment.
23:12
[SPEAKER_00]: The existence of the country is at stake.
23:17
[SPEAKER_00]: In other words, it may not turn into multiple countries, but it can canonize, it can fracture, and it can feel like a form of partition that may not, that may end with not necessarily civil war, but the breakdown of greater Lebanon.
23:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Hasbola presents a direct threat to that.
23:36
[SPEAKER_00]: What these rallies go through in northern Israel, and what the Lebanese go through in southern Lebanon,
23:42
[SPEAKER_00]: not so interesting to me how many are dispossessed given which war, what I think is true, is that southern Lebanon is uninhabitable and has been to a degree turned into a buffer zone without Israeli stank.
23:55
[SPEAKER_00]: In other words, technology has replaced Israeli soldiers in the south.
24:00
[SPEAKER_00]: The old buffer zone in the 1980s and 90s, the Israelis were exposed.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Israeli soldiers were killed over a long period of time, and under local pressure, the Israelis pulled out.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: The myth of Hezbollah kicking the Israelis out doesn't work.
24:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The Israelis wanted out of Lebanon, and they announced their withdrawal, and they packed up, and they left on their terms, in May of 2000.
24:23
[SPEAKER_00]: To the point that they announced it beforehand,
24:26
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really my point is that these really don't give two cents about Lebanon's sovereignty.
24:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Think they care about security on their terms in the north in particular, but across the country too.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: When it comes to sovereignty though, and I'll end this part very quickly to give you the mic.
24:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Sovereignty, I don't think anyone can imagine a sovereign Lebanon as long as the region prefers Lebanon as its battlefield.
24:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Whether these Israelis wanted or not, I think a secondary, I think what Iran was able to inherit from a long occupation, it's still there in a fundamental way.
25:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It's entrenched in Lebanon's security apparatus.
25:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the story is there.
25:06
[SPEAKER_00]: These Israelis will not be able to achieve Lebanese sovereignty, even if perhaps they want some form of it,
25:13
[SPEAKER_00]: doesn't work this way.
25:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I do agree with you that Lebanon has become the region's battlefield.
25:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not becoming.
25:20
[SPEAKER_01]: It has been for quite some time.
25:22
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a proxy battlefield for decades and for too long.
25:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think my only point in response to everything that you just said and I don't disagree
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: with much of it, but I think these really are now coming to the understanding that sovereignty is their answer.
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It may not be because they're not wearing the Lebanon like make Lebanon great again hats.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not what they're thinking about.
25:44
[SPEAKER_01]: They're thinking about their own interests, they're thinking about their own security, but they understand that sovereignty at the end of the day is probably the tonic that is needed in order to get to that outcome.
25:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think that that that that pivot in Israel right now, at least for me is interesting and that leads me to my last question and we'll need to keep it somewhat short, but as the Israeli start to think about Lebanese sovereignty.
26:11
[SPEAKER_01]: has allowing the LAF such as it is to fill the void and allowing the government such as it is to take actual responsibility for what's going on and maybe even disarming his ball-up.
26:25
[SPEAKER_01]: This obviously opens the door potentially to normalization between these two countries that, well, there are anything but normal, both of them are not normal, right, either of them are.
26:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Is normalization possible in your view?
26:43
[SPEAKER_00]: if neutrality is possible, sovereignty aside, if neutrality is possible, meaning Lebanon is not the region's battlefield.
26:54
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can replicate what we had 60 years ago,
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: that kind of distance, which allows economic flourishing, which allows the region to consider this almost a safe space for vulnerable communities or even people expressing themselves, what made Lebanon work and what made Lebanon a very important popular destination.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: 60 years ago, if neutrality can get us somewhere, I think that's really the story.
27:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Normalization, I don't think will happen.
27:25
[SPEAKER_00]: under any other circumstance.
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And if normalization is to happen, this is again, my understanding, it will probably be the end of a very long journey and not the beginning.
27:39
[SPEAKER_01]: This is my understanding as always.
27:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean it in that you can have a return to quiet.
27:47
[SPEAKER_00]: You can have even a serious armistice,
27:52
[SPEAKER_00]: You can have a permanent ceasefire.
27:55
[SPEAKER_00]: You may not have war again between Lebanon and Israel, meaning has been land, Israel.
27:59
[SPEAKER_00]: But normalization, I think, is a very, very, very difficult thing to start with.
28:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Lebanon needs to regain what it had.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And those are the years.
28:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll just add one more thing here.
28:11
[SPEAKER_00]: The Lebanese army was not the focus of the story.
28:14
[SPEAKER_00]: The Lebanese army was, it's funding was not the focus.
28:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The focus back then was Lebanon's distance.
28:21
[SPEAKER_00]: from Arab is really conflict and regional war.
28:23
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need a well-funded army to achieve that.
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon's best defense policy is its neutrality.
28:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where the story is and it remains.
28:33
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so maybe it's make Lebanon neutral again.
28:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, maybe that's the hat.
28:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't have a nice ring to it, but yes, I agree.
28:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah.
28:42
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, we're going to leave it there.
28:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you, Ronnie Chadop, for joining us today on the FTD morning, be fascinating conversation.
28:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It's my pleasure.
28:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.
28:53
[SPEAKER_01]: You never know who's gonna show up on this program.
28:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow.
28:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Another episode, another week in the books, folks.
28:57
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29:02
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29:07
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29:11
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29:15
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29:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Have a great weekend, folks.
29:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Jonathan Chanzer, as always, signing off for FDD.