Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / Australian Strategic Policy Institute Senior Defence Analyst Malcom Davis explains what the AUKUS partnership means for the NT

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Australian Strategic Policy Institute Senior Defence Analyst Malcom Davis explains what the AUKUS partnership means for the NT · 360 with Katie Woolf

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  Speaker 1: We know that the big news of the day is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: the fact their President Biden, British Prime Minister Sunak and
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  Speaker 1: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi have announced a pathway for
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  Speaker 1: Australia to acquire conventionally armed nuclear powered submarines under the Australia,
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  Speaker 1: United Kingdom and United States Partnership. So we're making the announcement.
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  Speaker 1: The US Department of State said that UCAS the UCUST
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  Speaker 1: partnership represents a modernization of the long standing alliances and
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  Speaker 1: partnerships between our countries, guided by a shared commitment to
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  Speaker 1: global prosperity, security and stability, deepening our long standing diplomatic,
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  Speaker 1: security and defense cooperation to meet the complex challenges of
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  Speaker 1: the future. Now, if you like me and wondering exactly
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  Speaker 1: what this means not only for Australia, but what it
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  Speaker 1: could potentially mean for the Northern Territory and the strategic
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  Speaker 1: importance of Darwin Well joining me on the line to
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  Speaker 1: talk more about the partnership and what it does mean.
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  Speaker 1: From the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Senior Defense analyst Malcolm Davis,
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  Speaker 1: good morning to you.
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  Speaker 2: Malcolm, good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time Firstly, how significant
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  Speaker 1: is today's announcement.
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  Speaker 2: Look, it's really significant in the sense that what it
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  Speaker 2: means is that we are fast tracking the acquisition of
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  Speaker 2: these nuclear submarines. Instead of waiting until the early twenty
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  Speaker 2: forties before we get our first one, We're going to
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  Speaker 2: get our first nuclear submarine by twenty thirty three, and
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  Speaker 2: that's one of the Virginia class US nuclear submarines. We'll
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  Speaker 2: be getting up to five of the Virginia class submarines,
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  Speaker 2: and then we'll be transitioning across to a British design
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  Speaker 2: called the SSN Orcus, which will be based on their
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  Speaker 2: Astute class. But in terms of the military hardware, it's
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  Speaker 2: significant in the sense that it brings it forward. We're
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  Speaker 2: not able to wait so long. That has huge invocations
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  Speaker 2: for industry and workforce and jobs and so forth. But
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  Speaker 2: I think at the strategic level, what it does is
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  Speaker 2: it elevates Australia's importance in the region. We're no longer
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  Speaker 2: at the middle power level. We're now significantly heading towards
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  Speaker 2: substantial or major power level. And for Australia as a whole,
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  Speaker 2: that has all sorts of implications, including for the Northern Territory,
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  Speaker 2: including for defense and in the US presence in the
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  Speaker 2: Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 1: Talk us through what some of those implications may mean
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  Speaker 1: for the Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, so you know, as Australia does more in line
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  Speaker 2: with the US and its other partners through ORCUST, it's
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  Speaker 2: likely to see you're going to see greater cooperation on
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  Speaker 2: a range of different technologies, not just nuclear submarines, but
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  Speaker 2: also other areas. There's two pillars, if you like, in August.
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  Speaker 2: There's Pillar one, which is the nuclear submarines, and then
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  Speaker 2: there's Pillar two, which is a range of different technologies.
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  Speaker 2: And part of those technologies could include investment in autonomous
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  Speaker 2: systems and advanced undersea warfare caperies which would have potential
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  Speaker 2: roles for investment in the Northern Territory in terms of
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  Speaker 2: research and development, in terms of basing. So we could
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  Speaker 2: see the presence of US forces in the Northern Territory
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  Speaker 2: that would demand greater investment in terms of updating facilities
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  Speaker 2: and have secondary and tertiary effects in terms of local economies.
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  Speaker 2: So this does have simple implications not just in places
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  Speaker 2: like South Australia or Western Australia, but also in the
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  Speaker 2: Northern territory as well.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think it means for us as well though,
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  Speaker 1: in terms of our strategic positioning.
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  Speaker 2: Oh well, look, I think that it drives us up
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  Speaker 2: towards away from a middle power was becoming a major
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  Speaker 2: power on perhaps on the level of Japan, and in
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  Speaker 2: that sense, it becomes far more important for US to
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  Speaker 2: play a major role in the region. And I think
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  Speaker 2: that the Orchice agreement really fundamentally changes our defense calculus
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  Speaker 2: and our strategic calculust so that we are now playing
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  Speaker 2: a much more visible, high profile role the region in
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  Speaker 2: terms of managing the security environment and responding to challenges
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  Speaker 2: such as a rising China so on that.
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  Speaker 1: How do you think that China is going to react
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  Speaker 1: to the announcement? I mean, I guess that you know
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  Speaker 1: they've known, We've been discussing this for quite some time.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yes, they won't like it, but you know, frankly,
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  Speaker 2: we craft our own defense policy for our own country,
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  Speaker 2: not for their interests. And you know, it's necessary for
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  Speaker 2: us to get the sorts of capabilities that ORCUST has
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  Speaker 2: focused on, including nuclear submarines as well as some of
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  Speaker 2: the other ones in Pillar two, in order to ensure
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  Speaker 2: our security and in particular to respond to the challenge
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  Speaker 2: posed by China's militi which is growing very rapidly, which
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  Speaker 2: there's real concerns about China's intentions, particularly in the second
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  Speaker 2: half of this decade in regards to Taiwan. So we
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  Speaker 2: are thinking in terms of how we deal with a
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  Speaker 2: more challenging and dangerous security environment. Part of that is
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  Speaker 2: involving defense investment in and of caps that ORCHEST will bring.
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  Speaker 2: Part of it is also boosting our collaboration with key
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  Speaker 2: partners now such as the United States and Japan.
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  Speaker 1: And I guess taking that into account looking at at
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  Speaker 1: Darwin's strategic importance and all the different things that we've discussed,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, does it put us in a vulnerable situation
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  Speaker 1: here in the Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 2: Well, you're already in a vulnerable situation in the sense
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  Speaker 2: that if there was a war, you know, there would
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  Speaker 2: be places in the Northern Territory that would be hit
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  Speaker 2: by Chinese missiles. So for example, our WF Tindall would
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  Speaker 2: be a priority target for Chinese missiles. But I think
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  Speaker 2: what Orcust does is it increases our ability firstly to
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  Speaker 2: deter that war from happening in the first place. But secondly,
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  Speaker 2: if it does happen, we're better placed to defend Australia
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  Speaker 2: from the sorts of threats we could face. So I
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  Speaker 2: think it is important that we go ahead with this
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  Speaker 2: for ensuring our own defense, and in particular from a
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  Speaker 2: Northern territory perspective, that we invest in the sorts of
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  Speaker 2: capabilities to make Australia more resilient and more hardened, and
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  Speaker 2: I think more so than aucas. You'll see that coming
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  Speaker 2: out of the Defense Strategic Review next month when that's relaxed.
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  Speaker 1: Now just sort of looking at that, I suppose as well.
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  Speaker 1: I know that Anthony Albanezie had been talking today about
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  Speaker 1: some of the benefits of this deal when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to things like manufacturing. I'm also just reading an article
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  Speaker 1: at the moment where it said that Australia is going
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  Speaker 1: to be immediately launching a review as well to identify
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  Speaker 1: potential locations that could be suitable for the storage and
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  Speaker 1: disposal of nuclear waste when the reactors in its fleet
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  Speaker 1: of submarines expire. You know, just looking at those different
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  Speaker 1: kinds of areas, I know that they're both quite different
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  Speaker 1: than manufacturing and also other nuclear waste, But what do
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  Speaker 1: you think that that's going to mean for Australia in
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  Speaker 1: terms of industry.
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  Speaker 2: Well, firstly, the Virginia class nuclear submarines. The reactors on
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  Speaker 2: those are sealed when the submarine built and then they're
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  Speaker 2: removed when the submarine reaches the end of its life,
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  Speaker 2: so it's not a case of storing waste in Australia.
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  Speaker 2: I think the reactors themselves, with the disar material inside
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  Speaker 2: it would be taken back to the United States and
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  Speaker 2: stored there, and the same would be with the Orcus
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  Speaker 2: SSN boats that come from Britain. So I don't think
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  Speaker 2: storage of radioactive waste is going to be so much
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  Speaker 2: of an issue. We do have to invest in the
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  Speaker 2: sorts of infrastructure and skills to be able to support
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  Speaker 2: nuclear powered vessels, but I don't think we're going to
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  Speaker 2: really face the challenge of storing radioactive waste a long
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  Speaker 2: term on our territory. But I think that what you
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  Speaker 2: will see is much greater investment in shipbuilding, in maintenance
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  Speaker 2: and sustainment, and that's all going to demand investment in
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  Speaker 2: skill base. So we're going to need to train a
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  Speaker 2: lot more people to be able to operate these submarine
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  Speaker 2: submarines and sustain them, and the Northern Territory can play
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  Speaker 2: an important role in that well.
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  Speaker 1: I really appreciate your time this morning, Malcolm breaking it
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  Speaker 1: down a little bit more simply for us on the show.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so very much for having a chat with
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  Speaker 1: us today.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you