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IndyCar Indy 500 2026 | Qualifying + Betting Preview ft. Tony Donohue · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: Welcome to the Apex Insiders podcast. got Push to Cash, a special preview and a special guest. have Tony Donahue joining us for this week's recording. And of course we got our usual mic, IndieBet, also joining us for, ⁓ this is the special week, this is it. Like it's here guys, mean qualifying week. We got a lot to talk about ⁓ outside of just the 500 as well. There's, you know. some interesting stuff that's happening. But welcome, Tony. This is ⁓ awesome. I'm finally glad we can get you on the podcast. I know we tried to do this once. We won't go over that, but we're here. yeah, ⁓ you know what? Last time we tried to record, I wanted to kind of get a little get to know you. So for our audience, ⁓ I would love to have you just give us a little bit about your background, how you got into IndyCar and... Anything else? Any interesting facts about yourself? Tony: Yeah, we'll look at the last time as a little bit of a warm up, right? Because we hadn't had the test yet, so there was a lot of things to still break down. But yeah, thanks for having me. I'm so happy to be on. I know that we've talked back and forth a few times via DMs and such, so excited to be here. Love what you guys do. Glad to be back with Mike. Mike and have really good relationship. I always enjoy being with him. He's way smarter at this stuff than I am. So I tend to lean on him on a lot of this stuff. Yeah, no, I've always been a racing fan. I've been to every Unionapolis 500 since 1994. This will be my 16th, 17th credentialed, if you count 2020, started writing for a driver's website and then just kind of went from there, worked at ESPN radio here in town for 10 years and just have always had a love and a passion for IndyCar and the Unionapolis 500. obviously, the aspects of gambling and grid rival and doing fantasy is something that has continued to grow that I think We'll still continue to grow. So I'm excited to be here to break it down. I'm well prepared. I'm so glad. Mike, I know we talked about this, but we've got qualifying odds, which you really don't see sometimes. And it's a big deal. I know Mike had a nice hit on Saturday with Longard. I had Longard at 10 to 1. I only put $2 on it though last week. So yeah, a lot to break down. Thank you for having me, and I'm glad to be here. @f1capper: Ha ha! Yeah, actually, Mike, why don't you go ahead and tell the audience about your Lungard hits? Because it was pretty slick. Indy_Bet: Look, I mean, all of a sudden, IndyCar, you know, some craziness happens and Polo gets stuck out on the track and he doesn't just dominate the race and all of a sudden, IndyCar becomes bettable again, right? So no Polo equals I can make some freaking money. So yeah, the live market, ⁓ I do it through Coinbase. Some people do it through other avenues. Other sportsbooks offer live markets, but some of the prediction markets have them. And yeah, if you pay attention, like we do, and you watch these races, you knew that Lungard was the fastest car on track. Now, I was anticipating him to do the undercut, overcut, whatever you want to call it, and get Malukis in the pit when he stayed out. the live market still had Lungard at seven to one and you know you watch the race you watch the racing you know these things and I bet him at seven to one I bet him at six to one I bet him at five to one and then even when it didn't work out like I had thought the handicap went but he still was the fastest car he didn't get him on the pits but he got him what like five laps later with amazing pass and even after that I got him at two to one when you saw him he was cutting lap time so yeah it was a great race and we were all over Ray Hall top three four to one we know that's Ray Hall's track that's pretty much the only time we'll butt Ray Hall. So yeah, it was a great betting week, but yeah, man, I'm ready to get to the 500. I call it the Christmas Super Bowl. It's the Super Bowl of IndyCar betting. We get props. We're going to talk about a couple of those. But yeah, we got a lot, and there's a lot going on. So maybe Tony, I think probably maybe you can give us like your state of the IndyCar besides. I don't know you want to comment on the unbeddable thing with pillow and pillow just dominating again, but ⁓ carries your thoughts on hybrid push to pass ⁓ and all the little controversies that we got going. Tony: Yeah, when are we going to get a prop bet on over a half screw up by ⁓ race control? Because I think we're two for two over the last couple of races with Long Beach is in the Indy GP. You know, I was I was wanting to see rain qualifying on Friday because I thought I would have mixed up the field. You know, you would have had some drivers qualifying up front that maybe shouldn't have been there. Some drivers qualifying in the back that maybe would you would expect to be in the front. And if you think about it, we kind of got that Scott McLaughlin started mid-pack while Power was towards the back of the field. But then it was like, okay, it's going to be 72 and Sunny, which tells me that Palau is going to run away with it. That didn't happen. I was a little upset that they didn't call that full course yellow, but yeah, it was a spicy race, man. Felix Rosenkruist decided to become a pinball. Maloukas was dominant for about 80 % of that race and then Christian Lungard and Mike, I mean, we're not surprised, right? This is the driver that has been really good at the Indy Road course. Didn't really get a fair shake at it last year with McLaren, but he's ran so well there with Rahal and Rahal's had really good races there as we saw Graham back on the podium, which was, think, huge for him and the momentum. mean, if you look at Graham Rahal, this dude's inside of the top 10 points. Now, we'll see if that last pass, Indianapolis 500, but... Yeah, no, it was a chaotic race and I think some people got paid out on Christian Lundgaard, but was it a surprise that he won? No, was it more of a surprise that somebody besides Palau didn't win? Absolutely, and I think it kind of shakes things up heading into the Indianapolis 500. @f1capper: Yeah, it's funny you say that because I think ⁓ my mind just, listen, Longard, no doubt in my mind, he was like the second best on the field. ⁓ especially looking through the data, I was just telling Mike, I was like, there's nothing in my mind that's gonna steer me away from Palau winning this thing at all. He's like half a second faster, which is like an eternity than most of these guys. And it looked like he was about to run away with it. I was on the other end. Unfortunately, I had put my money on on cal she on pillow and I thought I was in a good spot. I was like getting it about minus one twenty five minus one thirty, even when he was still kind of ahead. ⁓ But yeah, it didn't work out in my favor, guys. That at least didn't work out in my favor. But ⁓ yeah, we have a lot to talk about with. Go ahead. Tony: think we're waiting for Maluchas to break through, right? It's gonna eventually happen. might be Indianapolis 500, it could be Detroit where he started on the front row last year. You're waiting for that to happen, right? So there's gonna be a time here, I think before the season ends, that we're holding on to a ⁓ five to one to an eight to one ticket on David Maluchas scoring his first career victory. Gateway would definitely be a place I'd look for that to happen. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, you brought up an interesting one here in a couple of two races from now. The Detroit GP could be an opportunity, especially with him in a faster car. But, you know, it's funny because we talked about this on one of our pods, like two or three episodes ago about Penske and just in general, how now New Garden has just kind of been nowhere. I mean, he looked great in this last race, even though it wasn't even talked about. But then he have like a P4 finish or P5 or something like that. I mean, that's pretty solid for. considering how they've been. And then Scott McLaughlin, he's just not in it this year, it seems like he is struggling. So it just became this conversation about Maluchas is the number one guy right now in my eyes. I know they're still pushing like Newgarden and McLaughlin, but it looks like, especially after this last race, what do you think? Do you think he's now, they're gonna put their full attention on Maluchas and kinda say he's the number one? Tony: I'm worried about Scott McLaughlin. I really am. you go back to his last win at the end of the 2024 season in Milwaukee and he got it done on an oval and we're like, okay, he finally won an oval race. Now, this is gonna propel him. No wins last year. Obviously, Indianapolis 500 was absolutely awful for McLaughlin. I look at his finishing position right now of over under seven and a half for this year's Indianapolis 500. And honestly, and I think it's over. I don't know if he can finish inside of the top seven. mean... @f1capper: Ugh, disaster, yeah. Tony: He hasn't been that great there. Part of me thinks that Pinsky is going to come back with vengeance, but I think that's going to be Joseph New Garden and David Malukis. I think if you rank who has the best shot to win the 500 with Pinsky, it's Joseph 1, David Malukis 2, and Scott McLaughlin 3. So man, I'm worried about Scott McLaughlin and as of right now, I don't see him as a favorite or a top five contender to win this year's Indianapolis 500. @f1capper: Oof, oof, oof. ⁓ no, no. Indy_Bet: I'll chime in because I've made one bet. And the one bet that I have in the account for the Indianapolis 500 right now is Scott McLaughlin 10 to 1. I felt a lot better about this bet when I made it in like March, maybe. think I made it after St. Pete. You know, I like the number. I like the redemption story. @f1capper: No. Indy_Bet: It has not gone the way of I thought it would with McLaughlin this year I am you know, I'm a lot less comfortable with that bet But nonetheless, I I have bet McLaughlin look we haven't seen oval We haven't seen a super speedway yet. Look, it's a whole different ballgame for me I'm still very comfortable that I think McLaughlin puts it in that fast six And the 10 to 1 becomes 7 to 1 or 6 to 1 and I have a little bit of value or I have some something to play with but you know, I'm curious Tony like I have like, when it comes to the 500, it's a whole like, you kind of really in my mind have to erase everything that's happened in the rest of the season. It is an event. It is a betting event in and of itself. Like, you you guys know that I live in the top three market because of Polo now and the Indy 500 I don't. I don't think that that's even worth doing. I think this is an outright market. You bet outrights. I mean, so I'm curious, your list of drivers, I have like my list of drivers who I think can win this race. Maluchis is not on that list. He's like right on the fringe probably. Lungard is definitely not on that list, our winner that just came. But I'm curious your list, in my mind there's only maybe 10 drivers or less I think we can put on that list that actually can win this. Maybe even, you know, might even be less if I'm getting picky. So I'm curious to hear, you know, who's on your list that can win. Tony: Yeah, I was going over some of the finishing positions here and you look at it. Alex Paloe is obviously a no-brainer. Joseph Newgarden is a no-brainer. And Pato Award, that's my top three right there. That'd be tier one. know, David Maloukas, what is he, plus 750 right now? I'm gonna put him in there as my fourth driver. McLaughlin is a no for me. Kyle Kirkwood is a no for me. Scott Dixon is a B-list like, okay. wouldn't mind having a ticket on him. Marcus Erickson, very tough, very tough, right? Because he is like 15 to one and it's over under what, seven and a half his finish. ⁓ You know, second on track last year and he had a rocket ship early in the race that Mike, I'm curious to know when we saw this the other day, I don't know what it is, but I don't trust any of the end of the three Andretti Global teams on pit road and they have five, maybe even six pit stops. over 500 miles is like, okay, you know, when's it going to be a screw up? And Marcus last year had a screw up in the pits, which made him go off strategy, which ultimately gave him the lead late in the race. ⁓ you know, that's kind of where I'm at right now. You know, I don't, I don't see a Connor. I don't see it's Kumisato and a one-off effort. That's so tough to do. ⁓ Rasmussen, Lungard, Power Hunter, Ray Santino. I don't see them winning. So I think those five drivers right there that I mentioned are, you know, where I'm going to stick with now. I think we are, however, due for a chaotic race. We are due for absolute something going wild and or, you know, some kind of fuel mileage upset winners. So that's going to be like if you can hit that great, it's going to be hard to do that. But right now I'm in that. I mean, it's Dixon, it's Maluchis, it's a Ward, it's New Garden, it's Palo for me. Indy_Bet: Yeah. Look, Dixon's on my list. ⁓ you know, but I also think that you're, it's interesting that you say that, like, you know, we're due for some rando, ⁓ to, pop up in a few mileage race or, or something like that. So it'll be interesting to see and watch and, ⁓ and bet on and yeah. ⁓ I think it's, we have to watch, you know, we're gonna have to look, we still got a couple of weeks of test of testing and carb day and we've got qualifying and and the numbers are going to move and we got some props we could talk about too. @f1capper: Yeah, one thing I do want to try to touch on is as we're doing, or any of us doing analysis, even audience is like, how much are we going to have to read this? This is a unique one, right? Like, yes, it's an oval, but it's a unique oval, right? We consider it a super speedway oval. guess you could say how much are you going to use most of your oval like data, historical data, even Phoenix, for an example. Totally different, right? How much are you using that to use into any kind of decisioning you're gonna go into Indy 500? Tony: Yeah, I've always kind of been prone to picking drivers that have won on an oval prior to coming into this. Obviously Alex Paloe is an anomaly, right? He won the Uniball 500 last year. Marcus Erickson won the Uniball 500 without winning on an oval. I don't know how much Phoenix translates over. think Phoenix, what translate is just if you have a new spotter, you had that camaraderie down, you have that verbiage down because there's a lot of drivers right now that have a new strategist. somebody that they aren't used to so I think that that was more Phoenix is more so for the camaraderie of the team driver spotter situation I I've mentioned this on Twitter The pole sitter has only one once in the DW12 era going back to 2012 that was Simon Pagano in 2019 the second starting spot has only one once in the last 55 years that was Juan Pablo Montoya back in 2000 so you know I think we sit here and we talk about right now we can have five or six drivers, but I also think you have to start inside of the top 12. Yes, Joseph New Garden started 17th a couple of years ago, but I think he would tell you and most of us would know that a Pinsky car shouldn't be starting 17th either. you know, I think you really have to have somebody inside of that fast 12 shootout and that's kind of where you can start to pick where your winner is going to come from. @f1capper: Yeah, and well... ⁓ go ahead. Indy_Bet: Yeah, go ahead. I was going to say, look, my favorite, I haven't seen it yet. And Tony knows this because we made a bunch of money out of it we first met each other. favorite prop bet probably of all time, betting $8,500 is the winner to come from, you could see it different ways. Sometimes you see it, the winner to come from the top four rows, the top three rows, or the winner to come from the grid position under eight and a half, nine and a half. I've seen it posted now. The book's caught on. and know I think it two years ago they posted like winter comes from under six and a half at like minus 160 and that that's where the math in math but like you know keep an eye out for that prop that like Tony said I feel like history is on your side there's a couple outliers but the winter usually comes from you know somewhere in that that that first three rows which is top nine so you see you know under nine and a half ⁓ on the grid so that's that is one of my favorite props to bet year in and year out sometimes I ⁓ you know we'll see I'm hoping the books will have that up I haven't seen it just yet but we'll have our eye open. Tony: And I see. @f1capper: Yeah, just some of those trends that you guys are... ⁓ go ahead. Go ahead. Tony: No, like he just said, right? Who are you going to get right now at a long shot that might be able to qualify inside of that top 10? Maybe it's a Felix at 35 to 1. I don't know. Maybe it's Longard or Power at 20 to 1. But I think we're talking about the same old... If Alex Paloe qualifies in the top 12, he's still going to be plus 450 in most books. If Joseph Newgarden qualifies inside of the top 12, he's still going to be plus 550. Same for Pottle at 6 to 1. I think if you're looking for maybe something to get in before the Indianapolis 500 qualifying happens this weekend, mean, I don't know, maybe a power, maybe a Felix, but if Felix qualifies inside of the top six, excuse me, he's gonna go from 35 to one to probably about 14 to @f1capper: Yeah, no, that's a good one actually, especially with how his performance has been except for IMS, which we won't go into that details. But yes, I wanted to come back to some of those trends and I'm going to just tease this up because Nate Rogers, he does a fantastic race preview. So he did put the pole sitter has won 21 of the hundred and nine races. So that's right there. Should come and tell you pole sitter. I mean. It's not, it's not a shoe in and here's a, here's a fun one. 75 % of the top three finishers start in rows one through three in the last 10, 500. So it's, it's very important to like track position. You can, if you're all the way in the back, yes, you can, you can move forward. There's ways to get up, right? But when you're competing against the field with like the new guards, the paddows and everything, you got to be in that top 10. You've got to be. in there, which actually we didn't even bring this up. The qualifying format that has changed. We probably should clear that with with some of the audience. So they did change it up. They tweaked it out of the 33 cars. What they're doing is on Saturday, they're going to do the positioning from 16 to 33. So basically the top 15 continue on into Sunday or yes, Sunday and then Sunday. I guess it's, this is where it starts getting a little tricky so you guys can correct me here, but you're going to run the top 12. the bot 10 through 15, get an opportunity only to get into the 12. And then from there, it's just running until you get your position, your one through 12. I hope I got it right. I don't know if I did. Indy_Bet: Yeah, 12 gets 6, 6 gets 4. You're close enough. I'm curious what Tony thinks about two things. One, the new qualifying format, and both from just from an IndyCar, his fan perspective, and then two, from a betting angle. And then also the fact that we don't have any bumps. There's no... Are these guys gonna treat qualifying any differently? And should we know that for betting purposes and for both the race and the qualifying because there's no risk of not getting in. So I'm curious what you think about that, man. Tony: Yeah, I think we're going to see a heavy emphasis on race trim, fuel consumption, full tank runs over the next couple of days. You're going to see a lot of traffic running because everybody is going to ramp up their race. You know, usually right around noon around Thursday, you would get a little bit of a feel of where you were in qualifying trim that obviously when the boost gets turned up on Friday, that's when you go full bore. I would say this. for this week, you know, we're going to know who has a really good race car, who's got a good car and race trim. And I think you're going to consistently see the same guys in the top 10 of the speed charts throughout the week. And then we'll see what happens on qualifying. But, you know, I wanted to go back to one other thing too, guys, is this is a race for older, for older winners, right? I mean, it's almost like you got to be in your thirties to win this. Obviously Alex Paloe, think what's Paloe, 28. But everybody else, I mean, you think about the veteran winners, Elio Castro Neves, Joseph Newgard in his 30s, Simon Pagino in his 30s, Will Power, Takuma Sato, Juan Pablo Montoya in 2015, obviously Rossi I think was 26. But this race is won, guys, by drivers that have the experience, have the patience, and know how to be there in the final 20 laps of the stint. So as far as qualifying goes, I mean, yeah, I think we're gonna nose in really good race trim. And then Friday, I mean, there's a chance, boys, that all hell breaks loose. As we know too, there's always gonna be that factor of somebody is gonna put it in the wall over the next two or three days. And that's really gonna set them back and what their Unapolis 500 program looks like. If you go back to 2024 with Marcus Erickson, remember he crashed on Wednesday and really never recovered was battling in that back row shoot out and then ultimately got taken out in lap one by Tom Blomquist. So there's gonna be somebody this week that basically ruins their entire Unapolis 500 chances by having an incident. @f1capper: Yeah, well, let's go ahead and dive into the odds because I'm kind of confused. I'm just now really diving into Caesar's, right? And it's kind of interesting because these you were talking about the under ⁓ under three and a half under four and a half. And I was just not sure. I totally, totally see why they're pricing this line. Just give me one second and I will get this going. Tony: One more thing I'll say about qualifying as well. It is an odd format. They're trying to spice it up a little bit because they don't have the bumping that we're so used to, right? So I understand that it's going to be awkward when they let those three cars go around with the pace car at 100 miles an hour to get some air in the flow. Those three, those cars that advance the 10th, 11th, and 12th qualifiers will be at such a disadvantage that they're more than likely going to stay 10, 11, and 12. @f1capper: I hope. Yeah. Tony: And really you want to find yourself in that fast nine you want to be in that top nine you don't have to worry about that Shootout between 10th and 15th you certainly want to be locked into that top nine ⁓ When the gun goes off on Saturday evening? @f1capper: Yeah. Okay, so tell me this. These numbers don't make sense to me because if you're expecting them to go, well, one, we were talking about this with price picks and how sometimes it can be confusing with the more or less, and we're saying under three and a half here. So you're basically saying if you've got to be in the top three, but why would I, why would I want to do that when I could just grab hello at top three plus one 35? Why would you do? Indy_Bet: Go bet they're top three. Because people are stupid like I'm looking at Dixon. He's put five to one top three, but I can pay minus my ⁓ I can get the minus 115 and for under three and half or for him to finish or four and a half like fourth So no like go bet. Yeah, be careful there Yeah, yeah, don't get that @f1capper: What are we doing? Yeah. Don't do this. Stay away from this one. Stay away from this. Don't touch that because you get this option. But I have some fun ones. I want to bring this one to you. They have top fives. Yeah. Well, this is why we're here. We want to make sure we're also educating everyone and telling them where to maybe steer your focus. So I'm glad we're pointing that out and clearing that for everyone. But. Tony: Yes. But that'll be the first thing that somebody clicks on and you know they'll get some action with something. @f1capper: Hey, we got some top fives and some top tens. I didn't, not picking a pillow, but we've been talking about some of these guys. Like, come on, we, Joseph Newgarden, you said, Pato Award. Those two right there, minus 125, minus 130, top five. I mean, I feel like there is some value on that. As much as I don't wanna do something like that, but they, you know they're gonna be strong. They're gonna be strong. Well, we hope, but they've been, they've proven that in the past. Yeah, and then there's Maluchis. I mean, you have them at plus odds. I mean, their top tens are kind of juiced, but we can try to dive into the top tens, but I'm kind of more focused on, you know what? If we're talking about these guys, they're gonna be strong here. I'm almost considering this as a top five bet. One of these, I don't know which one. Tony: nice David Maluch as top five right there. @f1capper: but maybe Joseph Newgarden. There's something in me that's saying Joseph Newgarden is going to show up. I think he's going to show up. I mean, it's not breaking news or anything. He's obviously good, but this is it, right? Like he's oval king. knows what he's... Tony: Yeah. So I have them. So I have the app up for Caesar's. I don't see top five on my end, but how about, ⁓ I think it says four to one. Is that four to one for Santino Ferrucci, a driver who's never finished outside of the top 10? And to get him at, is that four to one for a top five finish? You know, sprinkle a little bit on that. You're kind of sitting free. This is the guy who has set the record all time for most consecutive top 10 finishes to start a career. Seventh, he's been so good there. He's been consistent. That's a very fast car. @f1capper: Yep, there is. Tony: Obviously they have the Penske damper and shocks program, is huge. ⁓ I don't mind a little, a little, little spread there of Santino Ferrucci top five, top 10. @f1capper: Okay, would you take it so plus 110 I think it is yeah plus 110 on top 10. Yeah Tony: for a top 10? Yeah, absolutely. Pair that with somebody else, maybe a potto award to give it a little bit more. Yeah, why not? @f1capper: Yeah, if you can I will have to see if we can parlay this stuff But yeah, I kind of I kind of do dig that Yeah, that I mean, this is all they have on MGM I don't think there are any other odds happening elsewhere except for Caesars, which we did touch on qualifying I Want to say I took one of those bets I took Rasmussen pole Yeah And now he's down, I took him at 30 to one when we had our unofficial pod that we did a couple weeks ago or whatever it was. And now he's down to 18 to one. Do you take him at 18 to one? Tony: You know, past history would say that the Ed Carpenter racing cars have been faster in qualifying, but I haven't seen that lately. So, last Friday they're sitting at the top of the board. I'm probably not going to touch that. I have Joseph for pole. I have Dixon Sato for pole. Renas VK as we talked about on the last unofficial show for pole. I have him at 22 to one. He's now 14 to one. @f1capper: Yeah. Tony: on that. So I like that. And then you know what? I had to do it. He's a rookie. He don't know no better. He's super fast. He's quietly confident. I've got Kyle Collette for the poll at 60 to 1. Why not? @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Wow. Really? No. What's the rationale with him? Indy_Bet: ⁓ boy, didn't see that coming. Tony: I mean rookie, Brazilian, he's fast. Those Voigt cars are gonna be fast. Yeah, he was fast in the test, was in a tow, but if you're looking for maybe something to put a little bit on to have some fun with it and maybe have a chance rolling in the Sunday, I don't mind a little bit there on Kyle Collette. mean, again, that's the Penske damper, Penske shock program, which the three biggest things you wanna have at Indy is a great gearbox. shocks and dampers and they've got two of the three and you know Santino's qualified pretty quick. David Maloukas had a good run last year obviously qualified in row number three. You know it's one of those things honestly there's gonna be somebody that gets a qualifying draw the first three like we saw with Marcus Erickson last year. He rolled off the first driver to go out as soon as qualifications opened up and that was enough to get him into that top 12 ultimately starting ninth so Watch out for that qualifying draw on Friday. One of the first five drivers going out on Saturday will end up inside of that top. @f1capper: I like it. I might have to do that 61. Why not throw some beer money on it? Why not? Indy_Bet: Yeah, my eyes went to, you meant briefly crossed over for Ruchi daily. mean, look, my philosophy on qualifying, haven't met any qualifying. I might take some long shots if we see something in the carb day when they turn the boost up on Friday. So if I see something out of anybody that's over 20 to one, maybe even 15 and above. Because I do think that you know there's some teams that can come out of nowhere ⁓ And maybe grab you know grab that pole position not probably gonna contend to win the race But as you can see like the pole position Does not always win the race because I think sometimes guys get a lucky draw or they get the perfect lap that margins are thin and you some of these some of these ⁓ Tier three, tier four teams can come out of the nowhere. So if we, know, wait for the, I'll wait to see what we see and when the boost gets turned up and they're doing some qualifying Sims and we get that data, we'll have a ton of data. We'll have stuff to go on and maybe throw a few long shots just for fun on Saturday or for this weekend. Tony: Real quick, do we have it on this list? I don't have it on my app. I like Ryan Hunter Ray at 22 to one. It's a McLaren car that was pretty fast with Kyle Larson. I'm not seeing a Christian Lungard. You guys, on my end, I don't see a Christian Lungard on. Indy_Bet: Yes. @f1capper: Yeah, he's 25 to 1 for pole. Yeah. Tony: ⁓ there he is. to 1. You know, 25 to 1 and 22 to 1 on McLaren cars that are very fast. mean, you know, if you're going into this with, I've got 10 bucks and I want a long shot, I'm going to sprinkle two bucks here and five bucks there. You know, why not those two McLaren cars? Pada was on the front row last year. Even Kyle Larson, you know, was inside of the top 12 his rookie year. Ryan Hunter-Ray knows how to qualify. He knows how to get it done. ⁓ You know, I'd probably put a little bit of long guard and hunter ray as well at 22 and 25 to one. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I thought Hunter Ray too. Hunter Ray, Ferrucci, Daley were the the long shots I liked. ⁓ Lungard, I just don't trust him on big old. @f1capper: And why stop there? I don't either. Well, I was going to offer you Seagull at 100 to 1. Tony: I think Devlin D. Francesca, who's not on the injury list, has a better shot. Indy_Bet: I love Noah. I'm a boy. I'm almost lost for Nolan. @f1capper: Yeah ⁓ Yeah, it's kind of fun. Yeah. Indy_Bet: Did you tell Katherine she was 250 to 1 when you talked to her? Or 250? Yeah, 250. Tony: No, I did tell her that somebody in our Calcutta auction paid $28 for her and yeah that's you know but somebody also paid 17 bucks for Maluchis before I got there so I think we were dealing with some people that were ready to overspend. @f1capper: Well, we're gonna have to get a bid for Mike on Nolan next time. That's what we're gonna have to do. Tony: Well hey, I went up on a plane with him, so the odds that I landed were pretty good, so I'll take that. Indy_Bet: My body. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, no, ⁓ I remember that that was pretty sick. ⁓ was that st. Pete's right? I think it was st. Pete. Yeah Or is it indy? Okay Tony: Yeah. Now we went up in a plane here in Indy a couple weeks ago and did a new. Yeah, so we flew over IMS. was was a lot of fun, so no one's a great kid. You know, obviously coming off his two best finishes of the season. ⁓ You know, I would say this if no one finishes top 10, I think I think that's going to be a win in his eyes. @f1capper: Well, I, you know what, rooting for it. I like McLaren. That's kind of my adopt a team with with Indy. ⁓ But let's move on. Let's see. So we don't have the drivers to complete a hundred laps anymore. Unfortunately, we did have that. We did talk about that the last, I know it's gone. Tony: Uh-oh. Indy_Bet: lines. We got him to take it down. @f1capper: We, we, we, we, so we apologize to the audience. We had it. It was taken down pretty quick actually, after we even recorded. And then, I think drivers to lead a lap is still there, but manufacturers, this is a little juice because I think the last time we talked, it wasn't minus 165. I think it was at like minus 140. So it's, it's been juicing up to, they expect that six of the Chevy's are going to be in the top 10. I would not take that bet ⁓ at minus 165, but. ⁓ Yeah, like I don't have any appetite for the manufacturers bets here, so I don't know if you guys have any opinions. Tony: Yeah, I'm kind of with you, I think. Indy_Bet: No, nothing on that. think you gotta wait. You gotta wait and see. Like, we really don't have enough information Honda versus Chevy just yet. Yeah, obviously the books are assuming Chevy's gonna be more popular than the Honda. They've traded wins. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: over the last couple years. I think they're closer to even money. It's the coin toss. I mean, I do think, look, it's the 500. I'm going to play around. I always like to play around with the odd and even car numbers if you want to click on that. I think that's when you wait till after qualifying and then you can see, how many of the top 12 am I getting odd at versus even? Or you can even do top 12 Chevy's, top 12 Honda's. from at that point after you see the qualifying and maybe get some information. But yeah, I think those are fun just to have little bets on most of the bankroll. You know, we'll live in matchups or if we if we identify a prop like look, there's some speed props on there. We still got some research. We're going to let Nate get into the lab and figure out how many cautions gets us to 168 mile an hour. I it is. @f1capper: Yep. Indy_Bet: There's also one about fastest lap comes where what lap it comes on. I think we can do some research on that. I do think the laps are faster at the end when we're light on fuel and guys are pushing, ⁓ you know, so and the guys in the front are trying to pull away a little bit and run like qual lap. So that is something I'm going to dive into and we'll have more on. So yeah, stay tuned. mean, I know Tony's going to be doing 18 million fantasy leagues in Calcutta's and bets and you know, we'll have we'll have all that stuff as well. I'm sure we'll have. ⁓ another bedding preview as we get closer for sure but it's gonna be great. @f1capper: Yeah, 100%. I always go with that correlation, more cautions, less speed. you know, we gotta, gotta see, because I want to say it's been, it's been pretty cautionless this season. And then of course we had the last race, which was, it was pretty, I think that was kind of normal. ⁓ Yeah, let's see what else we have. Lead changes. I don't think see it. Like I can't even. get into that one yet. Like you said, we've got to see some, some data on some of these cars before we can do it. But I do want to get to, I think it was, I think I did do this last year. I'll, I'll check here in a second, but I want to say that under six and a half is the way to go on, on this one. And I'm checking again, because I'm pretty sure I did this last year, but under six and a half cautions is what it's at now. And now it's That's pretty baseline, I feel like. I'm thinking about taking the under, actually, on that one. Any thoughts? Tony: Yeah, I think as we talked about a few weeks ago, know, I think everybody just kind of plays it cool. They want to get to that lap 160 mark, that final 100 miles of the race with 40 laps to go. And you take a more conservative approach. We haven't seen a lot of attrition. ⁓ You know, I don't know, maybe we see a hybrid problem or two, but we don't really see a lot of attrition in the first half of the race. And I think if you can survive that first corner and not have a wreck of four or five drivers that get knocked out. I think under six and a half is, I think we're what three years removed from 30 different, from 30 drivers finishing the race. So I like that under as well. I don't think we're going to see a huge amount of attrition and a huge amount of drivers being knocked out. Look, somebody always, you know, screws their day up on pit road, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they're done for the day. You know, and, and, and I think it's one of those things where if you can survive that first two or three laps, everybody settles in, starts fuel saving early. and you have a pretty clean and green race until about lap 160, 165. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, so I'm considering it, but I wanna, and practice starts tomorrow at what, 12 p.m. Eastern, I believe, so they're gonna probably take down line, so I'm gonna try to look into that pretty quick tonight and see if I'm gonna do that and start phoning in the bets, but we do have some match bets, which is not a lot, but any of these strike you because I think these are kinda tough. I kinda wanna do this Rasmussen over Ericsson. Tony: do it. Don't do it. Rasmussen is going to be all or nothing and it's more than likely it's going to be nothing. He struggled this year. He's outside of the leader circle. There's a lot of pressure on him right now. Yes, he won a race last year at Milwaukee, but he's sitting outside of that leader circle right now. I think he's going to be pressing the issue and with that I will take a conservative Marcus Erickson finishing 12th over a Rasmussen who's going to be all or nothing and who might end up 28th or 29th. @f1capper: but the rest feel like it's pretty leveled. Don't do it. I think most of mine is coming through my hate for Ericsson probably. Oh, it looks like we just lost him. Oh no. Indy_Bet: Yeah, it looks like his internet was going out there. I think he was, Rasmussen, you know, in the short ovals, he gets a little dicey that you can run through. It's a whole different thing. I think ⁓ as much as I don't like Erickson, and I think he just luck boxed his way to his wins, he's probably savvy enough to still, you know, top 15, top 10 this race and just, you know, I don't... ⁓ @f1capper: ⁓ yeah, I know. I know. Indy_Bet: He's, you he's got the experience and it's like you said, it's an old man's race. So, um, yeah, that might be the only one. And I think it's already juiced, right? can't see it's in the screen, but it's already 135. So, you know, and then yeah, it's juiced to there. what do you think? @f1capper: Yeah, it's just to Ericsson, to Ericsson though. It's even money. So I probably won't touch match bets because I expect that we're going to get a ton of them. It's been happening. ⁓ Even my local books have been offering them. So it was just kind of an interesting one out of all the match bets. But right now I would not take any of these until we get data and seeing what's going on. ⁓ Yeah, think, mean, we've pretty much gone through, give me one second. I'm trying to let Tony back in. Indy_Bet: see if we can get Tony back and see if we can pin him down on his pole sitter and his winner. I think he said he's got Joseph for pole. So let's get Tony's, let's get him on the record with a winner. @f1capper: Yeah, he's back. Tony: And my laptop, my internet runs fine until I need it, right? So sorry about that. Yeah. Joseph, I think is right there for your Indianapolis 500 pole sitter. And then again, I'm in that four category, four or five drivers that have a chance. That could change the qualifying, right? Like if a long guard is qualifying inside of the top six, or even a Sato is right there as well. But I'm going go Joseph Newgarden as your pole sitter. @f1capper: I dunno. Man Indy_Bet: And what about a winner? Who's winning the race? Tony: Man, boys, I don't really like to make a prediction beforehand, but all right, I'll go on with a limp. I'll say it's gonna be David Maloukas. He breaks through and wins in UNIAPLUS 500. @f1capper: okay. Indy_Bet: Man, I was really hoping you'd tell Capra it was Pato, but that's just a side joke. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I was gonna go crazy in my mind. I'm think probably already going crazy. Well, what's yours Mike? What's what's you who's your pulse? Indy_Bet: ⁓ you're going have to wait for mine. There's going to be another Apex Insiders podcast on Indie 500 extravaganza probably at post call. So. @f1capper: I'll do one. I'll do one for fun now and but it won't be my official one. The official one will be when we do our push to cash official 500 podcast, but ⁓ I'm going to say pole sitter is actually going to be who I'm going to say it's Pato. I'm going to say it's Pato, but the winner is actually going to be Joseph Newgard. That's just awful. Awful him right now. That's what I think. But obviously I kind of hope it's going to be Rasmussen. Indy_Bet: You can put me down for, I'll take Ryan Hunter-Ray for pole and you can, I'm not, no official winner, but I've already, like I said, I have the only bet that's in the account right now is 10 to one McGough. @f1capper: Okay. Okay. Tony: Mike, I'll tell you what, if Ryan Hunter Ray qualifies on pole, you can pay for my flight for a weekend getaway down to Florida with you. Indy_Bet: Well, I'd have to go bet it, but... Now I feel like that. Now there's gonna be total FOMO. I gotta get at least throw 10 bucks on it. @f1capper: Go celebrate. Well, better get on it. Better get on it. Tony: Thank @f1capper: Yeah, well now if you if you do it, I'm gonna do it too. By the way, this is this I I can't let I can't let this just be a one-man party here. So Tony: Yeah. Indy_Bet: I'll be. ⁓ Yeah, I got to see some some car days some boost data if and see what see who's see who's where and see who's got the time like that's what's great about the 500 is we don't need historical race data. We're going to get a whole month of data, which I love. ⁓ know Nate loves so and you love to cab we're gonna have we're gonna be able to funnel all types of stuff into our models and our AI and and ⁓ you really just use what they've, you every year is unique, right? So every year is different and ⁓ we'll have plenty to go on to try to make some good ⁓ EV bets and hopefully make some money. @f1capper: Yeah, no, I've been really knee deep into trying to create some visuals now and it's been working. I've been posting it online on my F1 capper account too. So if you want to go back and take a look, if you're listening to this, ⁓ kind of trying to mimic what we do in F1, right? Like we're seeing like the race pace and trying to find the medians, the top and the lows. And ⁓ it's really been helpful in taking what they're giving us in terms of those PDFs and trying to translate them. Because one of the key things that I try to do, especially with road courses, is really trying to understand these car dynamics as it relates to turns. Slow speed cornering, medium speed, high speed, right? Like where's the edge happening with a lot of these teams? And it's been kind of challenging. No one's out there doing that. So I feel like... ⁓ this will be good for people to actually see it in a different way and understand these cars and what they can actually do race over race. But like I always say, it takes the data coming in. Historical is historical. You can find trends. But when it comes to that race weekend, we need to see those cars on track as is and how are they going to operate when they make changes. And then I continue to update that through the model. And then they come out and we'll see. I'm gonna continue, this is gonna be a fun week for me, that's for sure. I'm hoping that we get a lot of that stuff so I can try to produce ⁓ some good visuals for you guys to actually see it in a different way, in a different lens. Yeah, I know we've been chatting for about 45 minutes. Any last thoughts, comments, things that you're, or excitement that you have going into the, I know I'm excited about the Wiener race. Are they doing it this year? Are we doing the Wiener race? Tony: Yeah, can we bet on that? we bet on which wiener ends up winning it? I'll take the Pukunakua, the Pukunakua Dawn. @f1capper: Yeah Come on like come on books get on it. I want to bet this stuff. You know we got some Tony: Well, you know what would be cool. So on pole day, on Sunday, they're going to try to break the speed record for the fastest monster truck of all time. And think the record right now is like 100 miles an hour. they're going to bring them down the front straightaway. Hey, maybe like over 106 and 1 @f1capper: Give me, give me that. Cal-shee. Indy_Bet: ⁓ God. What happens when one of those things rolls and puts like a takes a chunk out of the speed? ⁓ my God. I didn't see that. @f1capper: And the tire just flings up into the stands. God. Tony: You know, we can't beat the 3 to 100. We can't get the Freedom 100, but hey, let's have Gravedigger run down the main street away. Indy_Bet: Yeah. @f1capper: That thing is gonna be loud as hell too. I don't know if you've ever gone to a Monster Jam event. It's actually fun, so I recommend it, but it is loud. Loud, loud, loud. ⁓ no, that would be ⁓ fun to bet on actually. A lot of fun. But yeah, no, I'm pumped. We got qualifying this week again. Get into the Apex Insider Discord, of course. Everything in real time. You get every bet made by Nathan Rogers, by Mike over here, and... Indy_Bet: ⁓ my god. the world. @f1capper: Yeah, we are constantly just talking. This is gonna be a pretty interactive week for us in the Indie Chat too. So yeah, if you want the live action and what's happening, get up to the second, that's where you wanna be. So Tony, again, I can't thank you enough for hopping on. We'll definitely do this again. Maybe we'll do another one even leading into the 500, so if we can find the time. If not, we'll definitely have you back on. We want to keep bringing you on. Love your insights, love your work. So really appreciate you joining us today. Indy_Bet: Yeah, shout out to Tony for ⁓ coming over and shout out to for his ⁓ unverified podcast with Dave Land, which is some cool stuff. then Tony, you got the Tony D podcast as well on Apple, which has always got some interesting insight and it's quick. I like it. Tony just runs through his thoughts, get it in, get it out while you're... ⁓ taking a walk or taking a jog or working out or something. yeah, hit up Tony and all those things if you don't already know who he is and you can shout out his sponsors. think it was the Zuth. I think it was Zuth flooring and ⁓ come on, what's the other one? @f1capper: And follow. Tony: We've got Zeus construction, we've got jet access, we're becoming corporate shills over here. Indy_Bet: That's right. @f1capper: And give him a follow too. mean, he's got some good stuff. Hey, you gotta follow him too. He's gonna give us the breaking news, man. Indy_Bet: I want some free dominoes too. Tony: Yeah, ⁓ yeah, ⁓ there will be a new, there will be a, I'll give you one that we haven't announced that will come out tomorrow. We're bringing Domino's back to the Unapolis 500. unfortunately you boys won't be able to partake, I don't think in the promo code, cause it's here for Unapolis, but you'll see, you'll see Domino's back in action here at the Unapolis Motor Speedway over the next, over the next couple of days. @f1capper: ⁓ sad. Indy_Bet: Love it. @f1capper: I'll break the news to Nathan since he's the local over there. Yeah, he will be able to get the free dominoes. We'll give it to give him the code. Eat it on our behalf. So I love it. I love it. Well, again, I appreciate it, man. Like always, love your work. And yes, please give him a follow. You can find him on all on the socials. You can find all his podcasts, his articles and everything. But Tony: We will make that happen. Perfect. @f1capper: Definitely Twitter is great. I love it. You post some really good nuggets on there. All right, guys. We'll see how. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see you next week for sure. Tony: Thanks for having me, boys, and we'll do it next week.