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Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert looks back on global equity markets for 2025 · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So it's been a wild ride for global equity markets
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: this year. We all know that here Donald Trump wasn't
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: even president on the first of January. Can you believe
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: that despite all the volatility, we're not a whisker off
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: all time highs now as we end the year. Sam
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  Speaker 1: Dickie is with Fisher Funds and is with me tonight, Sam,
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  Speaker 1: Good evening, Good evening, Ryan. What are the key lessons
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  Speaker 1: do you reckon that we should take away from this year?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, roller coaster. So there's three things. We were reminded again,
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  Speaker 2: when everyone in the market has the same view, it's
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  Speaker 2: on the front page of all the newspapers, it often
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: pays to disagree and take the other side. So you
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: mentioned it. On April eighth, a few days after President
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  Speaker 2: Trump's Liberation Day, economists were very very ars saying the
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: risk of recession was spiking, and if you read the newspaper,
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  Speaker 2: you would have sold everything that put in time. Headlines
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  Speaker 2: were comparing the looming trade war to remember the Smoot
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  Speaker 2: Hawley Act in nineteen thirty, which raised duties on twenty
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  Speaker 2: thousand goods and arguably turned a recession into the Great Depression.
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  Speaker 2: As it turned out, Trump's bark was worse than as
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  Speaker 2: by Global equity markets are up forty percent in eight
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  Speaker 2: months since then, which is actually one of the fastest
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  Speaker 2: rallies on record in two hundred years. Second thing is
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  Speaker 2: we were reminded that there are other places to make
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  Speaker 2: money outside of the US, So barring disaster in the
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  Speaker 2: next few days, it's only the third time in fifteen
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  Speaker 2: years that non US equities outperform US equities. So Japan
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  Speaker 2: is up almost twenty five percent as the stock exchange
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  Speaker 2: is forcing investors to be more shareholder friendly, paid more dividends.
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  Speaker 2: Countries like China and the UK have just gotten too
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  Speaker 2: cheap and are up significantly more than the US. And
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  Speaker 2: the final thing is we've learned again that the equity
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  Speaker 2: market is now extremely concentrated in the US. So the
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  Speaker 2: top ten stocks in the SMP five hundred of five
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  Speaker 2: hundred stock index make up forty percent of the index.
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  Speaker 2: So it's ten stocks out of five hundred making up
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  Speaker 2: forty percent. That is the most concentrated ever and has
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  Speaker 2: really interesting future implications for you know, those fund managers
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  Speaker 2: that are passive investors or index huggers.
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  Speaker 1: Sam, can you give us a sneak peek into twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty six.
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  Speaker 2: So we talked you and I ran and you and
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  Speaker 2: Heather and I back in October about the risks of
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  Speaker 2: the AI bubble popping. Now, the really good news is
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  Speaker 2: we've had a really healthy correction and some of those
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  Speaker 2: perceived AI winners, especially at the risky A end of town.
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  Speaker 2: So companies that were using tons of debt to fund
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  Speaker 2: this AI capex bonanza are down to lots of Oracles
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  Speaker 2: down fifty percent, core weaves down sixty five percent. So
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  Speaker 2: the point there is it's good news that investors are
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  Speaker 2: becoming more discerning. So with that in mind, as we
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  Speaker 2: sort of peak into twenty twenty six, the market is
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  Speaker 2: shifted from buy AI at any price to show me
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  Speaker 2: the return, show me the return on the massive amounts
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  Speaker 2: of capital you're investing. So it's going to be fascinating
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  Speaker 2: to watch whether those huge spenders like Google have gotten
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  Speaker 2: that message yet from the market. Now, if we take
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  Speaker 2: a step back, the headline price to earnings ratio, that
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  Speaker 2: the untest sort of valuation ratio for the market and
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: the US is really really high, extremely high historically. So
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  Speaker 2: equity markets look expensive on the face of it, but
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  Speaker 2: that's really reflective of what we talked about four rhine.
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  Speaker 2: Some of those top ten companies are really fully valued,
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  Speaker 2: so companies like Tesla on two hundred and fifty times
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  Speaker 2: price to earnings look pretty ritzy. So the good news
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  Speaker 2: is that blue chip companies, quality companies are the most
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  Speaker 2: out of favor in thirty years, and that's boats really
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  Speaker 2: well for focused investors and spells risk for passive index
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  Speaker 2: hugging investors.
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  Speaker 1: So lots to look forward to. Absolutely, Sam appreciate that update.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you, Sam Dicky from Fisher Funds.
• 3:38
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• 3:45
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