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Episode 373 - 10/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:01
Hello, and welcome to episode 373 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys. And as we continue to work
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through our routine in the fall and into the winter when it
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comes to betting football, a weekly sport, of course it's a
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Tuesday. So that means we are going to
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look at the early sharp report for College Football Week 8.
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Can you believe it? Already U to week 8 here.
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Unbelievable. But I do have 3 bets in college
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that caught my eye, two of which I've already gotten and placed
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and put in pocket here. One reminds me a ton of USC from
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last week where it is a very short kind of fishy home
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favorite with a line move fade the trendy dog play.
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Then we have another play with a dog getting points where if you
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have access to this one sports book again.
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I always talk about the importance of having multiple
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outs, being able to shop around for the best price.
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Not every book is going to be the same, and sometimes one book
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here or there it could be way off from the rest of the crowd.
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So I got a play for you in which you can get a very, very good
1:11
number. If you have this sports book,
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then the third bet is one of the grossest bets I've seen in a
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long time. I haven't bet it yet.
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It's the ultimate buy on bad news play.
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But I'm going to wait it out and see if we can maybe get a better
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number if the public narrative pushes it further in favor or
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against the side that we want to go in on.
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So 3 early college football plays and then I do have one
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play for you tonight in college football.
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It's one of those Tuesdays where we do have college football
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games across the board. There are three games overall.
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We haven't yet gotten to the the matching, which is the craziness
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that comes a little bit later. Maybe it's it's got to be close.
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If not next week, the week after.
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We do have three games today. There's two games tomorrow.
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What do we have? One game on Thursday, 4:00 on
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Friday? I mean, we're going to stretch
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here basically a college football game almost every
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single day. So there are three plays in
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college today. There's one total that was
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checking off every box for me. Splits, line, movement, rhythm,
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juice, real edge. So we're going to play one game
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in college and try to eke out A1 and O, as well as, again,
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getting some plays in early. And the whole goal when you're
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betting football is if you can play some bets early in the week
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where you can pick off hooks and key numbers.
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By the time the weekend rolls around, hopefully you're beating
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some closing lines and getting some good CLV, which makes you
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happy to have placed the bet early in the week.
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So a lot of college football talk here for today.
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Now, looking back toward last night, guys, we stayed hot in
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the NFL. How about those dirty birds, the
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Atlanta Falcons coming up? Absolutely massive for the team.
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Guys, when you look in the reverse line move Hall of Fame,
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you're going to see a picture of the Falcons from last night
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because that was basically exactly what we look for when
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betting a big heavily bet sport like the NFL public was all over
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Buffalo, 80% of bets, but the line went away from Buffalo +5.
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You might have gotten plus 4 1/2 with Atlanta.
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I played that little bit earlier last week, got all the way down.
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Did you see where it closed? 3 1/2 so great CLV as well as a
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rest. First tired advantage, great
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splits. Then a little cherry on top
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here, these primetime dogs continue to bark.
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Primetime dogs now 13 and six against the spread, 68% this
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season. And the Atlanta Falcons won
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outright for the team. Didn't just cover the number.
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They won that game outright. So great hit there with the
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Falcons. And then you know you're hot in
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the NFL when a play that you lean on and don't bet wins
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outright anyway because again, I didn't play the Chicago Bears
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last night. I'm kicking myself because I did
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notice that there was a rhythm edge.
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I think that rhythm had about a one or two point game, but I
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laid off because I didn't like the move toward Washington
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because Washington over the last 2448 hours leading the kickoff
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went from -4 1/2 up to -5 1/2. So again, reason why I really
3:50
like really liked Atlanta is because the public was Buffalo
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on the line move toward Atlanta. Well, this game, the public went
3:56
away from the Bears again, that basically erased any sharp
4:00
action on the Bears. It created the Bears as a
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basically a inflated primetime dog.
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They win the game outright 2524. So if you're if you played
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Chicago, congratulations. But I think it's a good sign
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that even when you lean on a bet and don't play it, it wins
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anyway. So that's a good sign that we're
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reading these numbers pretty well here.
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So again tomorrow for tomorrow's podcast, we're going to look at
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some early NFL lines for this upcoming week.
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But again, today it's all about college football.
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So that being said, and again, I know there's NHLI know there's
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some you know, there's a big baseball game Dodgers in
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Milwaukee tonight. There's even some NBA pre season
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college hoops isn't that far away either.
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But you know what, guys, we're doing pretty well with football
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pro in college. So let's just stick to what's
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making us money. As an old mentor of mine always
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told me and I never forgot it. He said, Josh, maximize your
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edge. I think a lot of betters want to
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just be good at everything. Like I want to win it at
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baseball. I want to be a winning NBA
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better. I want to be winning NHL better.
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I want to be winning college and Pro Football, college and pro
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basketball. But here's the thing, if you
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have an edge where you're doing much better at one sport than
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another, or even if you're break even in one sport but you're
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doing much better in another, put your money in your bankroll
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in the sports that you're doing well at.
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So for us, that's obviously pro in college football this season.
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So with that being said, really sharp report here for Week 8 in
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the NFL now first, but on the board that I placed wrote about
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this at for thevisen.com sharp report.
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By the way, I had a lot of people DM me yesterday about
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where do you get your betting splits?
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You know, if you listen to this pod, you know they come from
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visen.com where I'm a sports betting analyst, but Visen also
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gives you the DraftKings and Circus splits.
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I tweeted out an article earlier today at Josh under score
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insights in terms of how to use DraftKings and circle.
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Like I've been getting some questions like, Hey, what if
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draft DraftKings says this, but Circus says the opposite.
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Again, I have a full walkthrough with the article I just put out.
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But again, all these splits are coming from these and live.
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And the reason why I really like them is they're real license
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books. Like there are a lot of, you
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know, in the the hashtag gambling Twitter world that
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claim that, oh, teams getting over 60% of bets are this record
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so far this year. OK, well, where are you getting
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that data from? That data is, is it's
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meaningless to me if you don't tell me where the splits are
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coming from because I don't know if it's an offshore book.
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I don't know if it's, you know, any legal offshore or I don't
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know, you know, if they're delayed again, you know, is it
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an outlier book? Is it more of a square book?
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Is it a public, you know, is it a sharper book?
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If you don't tell me where the splits are coming from, I'm not
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even going to look at your splits because I need to know
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where they're coming from. So the beauty of DraftKings and
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Circa splits with V sin is that, you know, DraftKings is your
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public barometer because it's a big national public book.
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And you know, Circa is your sharp barometer because Circa,
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again, doesn't limit wise guys. They accept and take in big
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money from respected players. So by using them both and then
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comparing that to the line movement, that's really how you
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can take advantage. And that's what we've done so
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far this year. But anyway, first on the board
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for me, 3 early college plays. I want to look at a match up
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here, LSU and Vanderbilt. Now this one, as I mentioned a
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second ago, there's a play that remind me a lot of USC against
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Michigan from last week. Now, this isn't a unranked home
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favorite ranked opponent, but it's kind of similar because
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it's a short home favorite with a line move and a fade.
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The trendy dog spot. So this is a noon game on
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Saturday. LSU comes in five and one.
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They're ranked 10th in the country that just held off South
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Carolina, 20 to 10 covered as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Vandy, 5 and 1 ranked 17th, just lost to Alabama, 30
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to 14, didn't cover the 12 1/2 on the road.
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Don't remind me because you're covering the whole time and that
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running back just had to score that meaningless touchdown to
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kill us. So that was some PTSD for me
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looking at that box score again. But anyway, this game open Vandy
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listed as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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And right off the bat to me, that opening line really speaks
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volumes because Vandy is coming off a loss and didn't cover.
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Yes, you got incorporate home field advantage, but why are
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they favored over LSU? Who's got a higher ranking?
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Their 10th, Vandy is 17th, and LSU just won and covered last
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week. So the fact that Vandy opened as
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a 1 1/2 point favorite, you know what the public says, right?
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The wrong team is favored. You got to take LSULSU.
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Should be -1 1/2. Nope, even though 57% of spread
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bets almost a 2/3 majority here on LSU taking the points.
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Hashtag wrong team is favored. We're not down to a pick em.
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We haven't hopped the fence and gone to LSU -1 -, 2.
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No, this line has moved further toward Vanderbilt.
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So Vandy's gone from -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 even though the public
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is going LSU. The other angle for me is if you
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look at the juice on some of these books, there are a few
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books that are actually juicing up the Vandy side -2 1/2 -, 115.
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Like it may even go to three. But obviously this is a huge
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indicator of smart money on Vandy.
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Public LSU line going to Vandy. Now, if you look at the splits,
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look pretty good on Vanderbilt at DK.
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Remember this where the public is because you have the most,
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you know, number of downloads from average Joe bettors.
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FanDuel and DraftKings are your top two in America.
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But DraftKings, Vandy's getting 43% of spread bets, 54% of
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spread dollars. Circa where the wise guys are at
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63% of bets, 74% of spread dollars.
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So both DK and Circa low bets higher dollars, and the line
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move is toward Vandy. That's really how I use the
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splits, low bets, higher dollars at both books and the lines
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moving in the direction of the team getting low bets higher
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dollars. Now this is a money line play
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for me because once again, I would hate to see, you know,
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Vandy open -1 and after up to 2 1/2, odds makers are telling you
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it could be a very, very close game.
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I'd hate to see Vandy win by one or two.
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And you lay the 2 1/2 because you want to save the juice.
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I understand, but I'll pay more juice to protect myself.
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So I got Vandy -130 on the money line.
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I believe that was ESPN bet and if you look at the system match
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here when 2 ranked teams play each other, the favorite is 175
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and 46 straight up. That is a 79% win rate, a nearly
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10% ROI since 2016. Lastly, Vandy a little bit of a
10:11
rest advantage. Vandy was off last week by week
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where LSU played a tough SEC conference game against South
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Carolina. So kind of like the Buffalo
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Bills versus the Falcons where Falcons were rested line move
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toward Falcons. I know Falcons in that spot
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where a dog. Vandy's the favorite here, but
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same sort of thing. Public on the road team line
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going to the home team, low bets, higher dollars, good
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splits, good money line spot, good system match straight up
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and a rest first tired advantage.
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So my first play of Week 8 in the NFL or sorry college
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football is Vanderbilt Money line.
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I put in Vandy -130 and Diego Pavia owes me a winner because
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he let me down. Didn't play the greatest game
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against Bama couple weeks ago so I'm on Vandy -130.
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Next one for you. Another noon game coming up on
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Saturday. Washington and Michigan now
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Washington comes in five and one they just took down Rutgers 38
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to 19. Easily covered as a 9 1/2 point
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Rd. favorite or home favorite I should say.
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Michigan on the other hand, 4:00 and 2:00 just got rolled by USC
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31 to 13. USC was a huge fade.
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The Trinity dog play for us there.
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Michigan did not cover as a three-point Rd. dog.
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So what are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, Michigan opened as a 6 1/2 point favorite at home and it's
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pretty clear that pros are taking Washington the points
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because this line is dropped in favor of Washington.
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Now Washington is gone from plus 6 1/2 down to +6, and a lot of
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books are now down to plus 5 1/2.
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So this is pretty clear, steady, consistent movement in favor of
11:45
the Huskies. Now at Washington at DraftKings,
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Washington is getting 59% of spread bets, but 78% of spread
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dollars. So a little pro and Joe, slight
11:54
public support, but heavy, heavy big money on the Huskies at
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Circa. Listen to this.
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Only 47% of spread bets, 66% of spread dollars.
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So both again DK and Circa low bets higher dollars and line
12:08
Moving toward the Huskies. Now we get into some system
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matches here. When you are a in a conference
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game in the Big 10, both teams from the Big 10 conference play
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take the dog. It's 17 and 10 ATS this year, 63
12:21
percent, 19% ROI. If that Big 10 conference dog is
12:26
on the road, they improved to 10 and 4 ATS this year, 71% with a
12:31
33% ROI. And if the Big 10 conference dog
12:34
is getting five points or more, they're 15 and 7 ATS, 68
12:39
percent, 28% ROI. So we have a lot of system
12:42
matches lighting up here on Washington.
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Washington also would be a classic dog who can score system
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match. So if you're able to put up
12:49
points and increases the chances of you keeping pace or backdoor
12:53
covering. The Huskies are averaging 33
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points per game. Huskies also have a one day rest
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advantage. They last played on October
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10th. Nothing huge, but Wolverines
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played October 11th. Member that was West Coast, now
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traveling back to, you know, pretty much middle America there
13:09
with Michigan. But then also this is a play
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where if you can shop around and I really, really can't stress
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this enough, you got to have multiple books at your disposal
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because Washington across the board is pretty much +6 or +5
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and a half. But there is one book still
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offering the hook. It's ESPN bet.
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So ESPN bet, I'm looking at it right now as we're, as we're
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recording the pod, every book is at six or five and a half.
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ESPN bet is at Washington plus 6 1/2 -, 120.
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So I jumped on that number. To me that's a good edge.
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Again, if this closes 5 1/2 or less, that's a full point of
13:45
closing line value off, off the line move.
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And again, you want to have multiple books just so you can
13:50
create more opportunities for yourself to get better numbers.
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So you've seen this line move toward Washington.
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Low bets, higher dollars, great system matches in terms of Big
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10 conference dogs, Rd. dogs, dogs getting 5 or more dog who
14:04
can score system match. And oh, by the way, if you shop
14:07
around, you can get the hook still.
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So I jumped on ESPN bet plus 6 1/2 - 120.
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Do not wait. If you want to play Washington
14:14
with me, you better grab that now because that may not last
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much longer. But I took plus 6 1/2 -, 120
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with the Huskies. Now one of the grossest plays
14:23
I've seen in a long time. But it's right up my alley.
14:26
Penn State and Iowa. Let me ask you guys, this guys
14:29
Penn State complete dumpster fire, right?
14:32
They've lost three in a row. They fired their head coach.
14:35
You know, they thought they'd be in the national championship
14:37
conversation. They'll be lucky to make a bowl
14:39
game at this point. And their starting quarterback
14:41
just got had a season ending injury, Drew Aller out for the
14:44
year as a result. We want to fade Penn State,
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right? Everything, everything is a
14:49
negative in in in Penn State world right now.
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However, I think there's an opportunity to actually back
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Penn State here. And I'm this is an opinion.
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This is based on what the markets telling me.
14:59
So 7:00 Eastern Time, this is a prime time game.
15:02
Saturday night, Penn State goes to Iowa.
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Penn State, as I mentioned, three and three just lost to
15:07
Northwestern 22 to 21. They were a 20 1/2 point home
15:11
favorite and you lose the game. That's what sealed the fate of
15:13
James Franklin. Meanwhile, Iowa four and two
15:16
just crushed Wisconsin 37 to nothing.
15:19
Easily covered as a 5 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
15:21
So what have you seen across the market here?
15:24
Well, this game open Iowa listed as a three-point home favorite.
15:28
Now why is that meaningful? Because typically you're getting
15:30
two to three points for home field.
15:32
So basically neutral site. This is probably a pick em type
15:35
game. I also noticed that the look
15:38
ahead line on this game I believe was as high as Penn
15:40
State -10 1/2 a couple weeks ago before the, you know, injuries
15:44
and all the bad losses and firing of the head coach.
15:47
And the public says let me fade Penn State all day.
15:50
Again, the public says Penn State is a dumpster fire.
15:52
Do not touch them. Fade them at all costs.
15:56
However, even though nearly 70% of spread bets are laying with
16:00
Iowa, Iowa open -3 they're not up to -3 1/2 - 4.
16:04
They've stayed where they're at and the juice is actually on the
16:07
Penn State side. Plus 3 -, 115, some shops even
16:11
getting down to 2 1/2. So why is the line staying the
16:15
same, removing toward Penn State in terms of the juice Or again,
16:18
any shop that fell 3 to 2 1/2 even though everyone's playing
16:22
Iowa tells me we got smart money here buying low on Penn State
16:26
plus the points. Penn State would be a great bet
16:28
against the public play because they're only getting around 30%
16:30
of tickets and a heavily bet primetime game.
16:34
You look at the splits at circa, only 44% of bets, but 67% of
16:38
dollars on Penn State. So good low bets, higher dollar
16:41
split. Also the ultimate buy low spot,
16:43
unpopular dog on a losing streak against a popular favorite
16:47
coming off a blowout win and cover.
16:49
Penn State also has some correlative betting value in
16:52
terms of a dog low total total. This one is 39 1/2, so it's not
16:56
like it's, you know, 495969 Lower up amount of expected
17:00
point score makes it harder for the favorite to cover.
17:03
Lastly, you look at Penn State in a bounce back spot.
17:06
You know, what do you hear a lot in the NFL?
17:08
You get your head coach fired. Typically you really bounce back
17:10
and play well the next day or the next game.
17:13
Well, this would be a bounce back play on a team who just
17:15
fired their head coach. Maybe they feel like kind of one
17:18
of two ways. Either they liked, I don't know
17:20
because I'm not in the locker room, but either they liked
17:22
Franklin, they let him down and they feel bad that they got him
17:25
fired. Don't feel bad for Franklin.
17:26
He's walking away with $50 million.
17:29
But the other angle will be maybe they hated him or didn't
17:31
like him and now he's gone and now they feel free.
17:33
Or maybe the expectations of a championship are too much and
17:36
now you're not even expected to go.
17:38
You know, maybe you make a Tostitos ball.
17:41
So now there's there's less expectations.
17:43
You're playing with house money. Historically, this is a good
17:45
spot to buy law on a team after they fire their head coach.
17:48
And then lastly, oh, by the way, we I popped open the rhythm app.
17:53
Rhythm has Penn State plus 0.4 and plus 0.7.
17:59
So basically Rhythm is saying this should be about 1/2 or a
18:02
one point game. You can get a three.
18:05
I'm taking Penn State here, guys.
18:06
Now, I didn't play it yet because I want to see what
18:09
happens over the next few days. Like I really want the hook with
18:11
Penn State and there are no hooks available.
18:14
It's pretty much Penn State +3 at every book across the market.
18:18
So I want to see if between now and Saturday, the public
18:22
realizes, well, Penn State, you know, is terrible and they just
18:25
fired their head coach, yadda yadda.
18:27
I was only three at -3 at home coming off a blowout.
18:30
When were they 137? Nothing.
18:32
My whole point here is I don't think there's a reason that you
18:34
have to take the three right now.
18:36
I'm a little worried because it is juiced up, Like maybe it gets
18:39
to 2 1/2, but we still should be able to find a book at three.
18:42
I'm waiting to see if we can get the 3 1/2.
18:44
Like, is the public betting so overwhelming on Iowa, thinking
18:48
it's an easy fate of Penn State between now and Saturday that we
18:51
see one book? Maybe it's an ESPN bet or an
18:54
outlier. Get to 3 1/2, but this is a
18:56
really gross buy low spot on Penn State, guys.
18:59
I'm taking Penn State in the points.
19:01
If I have to take the three, I'll take the three, but I'm
19:03
going to wait it out, give it a couple days and and see if we
19:07
can maybe get a + 3 1/2. So Penn State, you probably
19:10
would have wanted to fade them, but Mark, it looks pretty good
19:12
in favor of the Nittany Lions. Now, one bet for tonight.
19:17
I know there's three games overall.
19:19
That's pretty cool. We got three games in college on
19:21
a random Tuesday night. I'm going to focus on the 8:00
19:25
game tonight. So it is the late night game.
19:27
It is Florida International in Western Kentucky.
19:31
Now, in terms of the side, we've seen this line move pretty big
19:34
toward Western Kentucky -7 1/2 all the way up to -10 1/2.
19:38
Makes sense. Western Kentucky is five and one
19:40
on the year. They've won three straight.
19:43
FIU is 2 and three on the year, and they just got rolled by
19:46
Connecticut 51 to 10. So again, tells me a lot of big
19:51
money here came on, came in on Western Kentucky.
19:54
I'm going to focus on the total though, guys, I like the under
19:56
in this game. The first thing you notice with
19:58
the total is that it opened as high as 57 1/2 and now it's down
20:02
to 56, even 55 1/2. So it's pretty clear that this
20:06
total has dropped since the opener.
20:09
That tells me that again, there's been some respected
20:11
money hitting this under. Then you look at some of the
20:14
splits here at DraftKings, 62% of bets are going over, yet the
20:18
total fell. So classic reverse line
20:20
movement, public playing the over, yet the total fell again
20:24
at Publix on the over. Where are the odds makers
20:26
dropping the number saying, oh, you like over 57 1/2 here, now
20:29
you only got to go over 55 1/2. Fishy.
20:32
Let's let's kind of take a step back to ask ourselves why?
20:35
Looks like because respective money is going under circa only
20:39
44% of bets, but 54% of dollars are going under.
20:44
So another good split there. Then you look at some other
20:47
factors. Let's go over to rhythm.
20:50
This is a big kind of market plus rhythm plus juice real play
20:54
for me because the market is falling reverse line move low
20:57
bits, higher dollars at Circo. Then I have two green star
21:00
recommended plays from rhythm and again, rhythm.
21:03
Great job powering the pod giving us these AI backed models
21:06
and predictions. What I look for in terms of a
21:09
rhythm spot is number 1. I want them both of my so I have
21:12
multiple systems, one that I've created, one that rhythm created
21:15
for me. I want them both on the same
21:17
side and I would love for them both to be green star plays.
21:20
Like sometimes we get a caution flag saying, oh, this is a lean,
21:23
but maybe not quite fitting all of all of our criteria.
21:26
I have two green star recommended plays.
21:30
One has the total at 54. The other one has the total at
21:34
50.8. So basically 51 and 54 and we
21:38
can still get a under 56. And actually guys, I got under
21:42
56 1/2 at Fanatics. Sometimes you can look at what
21:47
does it cost me to buy a half point.
21:49
And one thing I notice is that Fanatics, it was pretty cheap.
21:52
Like when I went to Fanatics, like every book is at basically
21:56
55 and a half. 56 Fanatics is at 56 under -110.
22:01
Now I was able to just bring it up to under 56 1/2 at -115.
22:06
So typically 1/2 point on a side will be cost you $0.20 or more.
22:11
This was only five more cents to take the total up a half points.
22:14
That's what I did because I saw, I thought or I saw I should say,
22:18
a lot of these sharp indicators hit the under 56 1/2
22:21
specifically. So this is a, you know, 36 to 20
22:25
game, 3521 game, something like that.
22:29
Obviously, you know, the more more points you can get, the
22:31
more you can protect yourself. So if you have access to
22:34
fanatics, again, you can take the under 56 -, 110 up to under
22:38
56 1/2 at -115. So that's what I did under 56
22:41
1/2 at -115. Next, I popped open Juice Reel
22:46
and I noticed a 28% sharp mush edge on the under.
22:50
So 28% more of the sharper winning players are going under
22:55
in this FIU Western Kentucky game.
22:57
And 28%, that's pretty big. Like we talked sharp mush.
22:59
Oh, 8% here, 9 percent, 10 percent, 28%, that's pretty big.
23:04
So it tells me the sharps, like you guys out there listening who
23:08
have downloaded Juice Reel synced up your books are also
23:10
going under. Another supplementary factor
23:12
here, Big favorite, You know, you've seen the steam toward
23:15
Western Kentucky -7 half up to 10 1/2.
23:18
So if they get up big, hopefully take your foot off the gas, run
23:21
the ball, chew up the clock, get out of there, stop the scoring.
23:24
But also FIU, they're only scoring 16 points per game.
23:29
That ranks 120th out of 136 schools.
23:33
So they are almost, you know, not dead last, but at the very,
23:35
very bottom portion of the league in scoring.
23:38
So you got it all up here guys. Open 57 1/2 down to 5655 1/2.
23:44
You can still get under 56 1/2 -, 115 at Fanatics, which is
23:48
what I did. Low bets, higher dollar split
23:51
two green star rhythm recommended plays 28% sharp mush
23:54
edge. Big favorite, hopefully gets up
23:56
big, takes their foot off the gas and a team that struggles to
23:59
score in FIU. So you add it all up here, guys.
24:02
I know we got college, 3 college games, we got NHLMLB preseason
24:06
basketball. Just going to see if we can go
24:09
one and O here my one plate tonight under 56 1/2 at -115 at
24:14
fanatics for Florida International and Western
24:17
Kentucky. So that about does it for
24:19
episode 373 of the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast
24:24
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
24:26
where we wrap things up and I always start first by saying
24:29
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
24:31
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
24:33
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
24:36
with me. If you enjoy the pod that's
24:38
helped you cash some tickets, please could you give this
24:41
podcast a five star review? I noticed some of you must have
24:44
listened on yesterday's pod because we're up to 335 star
24:47
reviews on on Spotify, so I appreciate it.
24:50
If you haven't done it yet, please give it a five star
24:52
review. Leave a good comment, click the
24:55
review section, click the follow button.
24:57
That way you get alerted. It'll be like a pop up, like
24:59
someone texts you. It'll say, oh, a new pod just
25:01
dropped or whatever. But you can also recommend the
25:03
pod to a friend. I would very much appreciate
25:05
that as well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
25:09
sports betting, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
25:12
focusing on what not our thoughts and our hopes and their
25:14
gut instinct tells us. Isn't it always funny people say
25:17
go with your gut? Well, not in sports betting
25:19
because your guts usually wrong. Go with what the data in the
25:22
market is telling you. So this style of betting has
25:24
helped you to cash some tickets, provided you a blueprint.
25:28
You're starting to see some closing line value and winning
25:31
some bets more than usual, hopefully or more than you did
25:34
prior to betting from a data-driven perspective.
25:37
And you want to learn more about data-driven betting, please go
25:40
to Amazon.com and type in the NFL sharp betting playbook.
25:44
It's my new book came out about two months ago.
25:46
It's got everything I've learned put it all in there to approach
25:49
the NFL from a market based perspective.
25:52
And I also wrote a another book now six years ago, time flies
25:56
called the everything guide to sports betting.
25:58
That's really the introduction on a general sense among all
26:01
sports, how to be a data-driven better.
26:03
So pick up one or both of my books.
26:05
It'll mean the world to me if you meet me at the book and
26:08
bring the books, I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you beer or
26:11
ginger ale. And we'll root for a low scoring
26:13
game in Western Kentucky. FIU next.
26:18
Have you downloaded Rhythm in Juice Real yet?
26:19
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm Fantastic for their
26:23
AI backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
26:26
Remember every Thursday night, 6:00 PM we'll have our Rhythm
26:29
rundown. So look forward to seeing you
26:30
guys there a couple days from now.
26:32
And then Juice Real. Juice Real has so many great
26:35
features with the one that I'm going to highlight is the
26:38
ability to follow every all systems go best bet pick from
26:42
the juice Real page. You can sign up for $4.99 a week
26:47
to get a week's worth of plays. Support your podcast host tip
26:49
your podcast host if you enjoy the insights.
26:52
If you had an epic week in college and NFL and you got a
26:55
couple extra extra nickels in your pocket, please support your
26:58
pod host here and get those $4.99 a week best bet picks.
27:03
You can always just go do it from the juice reel app or you
27:07
can wait to get the the tweet that I put out every night,
27:10
usually around like 5 or 6:00 and you can sign up right
27:13
through that link. But you also get the robo
27:15
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
27:17
arbitrage plays the shop for the best sign features all available
27:21
when you download Juice reel. So download juice reel, download
27:24
rhythm. Give me a five star view in the
27:25
App Store while you're at it. Next you have a live odds page.
27:29
If you don't have one, you need one.
27:30
It's so important to be able to track the market.
27:33
You got to know number one, what are all the games being played
27:35
today? What are what sports are in
27:37
action? I need live scoring.
27:38
I need live in game wagering odds.
27:41
I need to be able to track the market.
27:42
Give me the opening column tells me the opening number.
27:44
It never moves. Then all the current numbers to
27:47
the right of it so you can see which direction the line is
27:49
moving and pull up the line history.
27:50
You can identify Steam. As soon as anything changes, it
27:53
gets lit up in red. And most importantly, you can
27:55
shop for the best price and find that best number.
27:58
So for that Washington game you mentioned earlier, every book
28:00
6/5 and 1/2, I have a column that says ESPN bet.
28:04
I noticed the 6 1/2 boom, you can take advantage right there.
28:08
So if you are new to a live odds page or you need one, you should
28:11
definitely try odds logic and I have a promo code for you.
28:15
This will give you 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
28:18
month of service. Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
28:24
Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
28:28
Next, do you know what a betting exchange is?
28:31
Betting exchange is different from a sports book.
28:33
It's kind of like a sports book, but instead of betting against
28:35
the house, you're betting against other betters.
28:37
And if you win and do well, you're not going to get limited.
28:40
So that's really important here because you hate to be a winning
28:43
better. And then the book says, oh, I
28:45
used to bet 100 bucks a game. Now you can only bet 5 bucks a
28:47
game. But there is a betting exchange
28:50
called Novig. Novig is really just a a cool
28:56
way to get better numbers. Like for example, if you look at
28:59
FIU and Western Kentucky right now, you know, you could get
29:03
under 55 1/2 at plus one O 2 or over 55 1/2 at -1 O 4.
29:07
You could get FIU plus 10 1/2 -, 1 O 8 or Western Kentucky -10
29:13
1/2 at plus one O 2. So again, you're getting better
29:15
prices, you're getting better numbers.
29:17
Therefore, if you let's say you you bet at a book that's always
29:21
given you -110 or more, and then you bet at Novig giving you
29:24
always -110 or less, you could have the same win loss record at
29:27
both books but make more money at Novig because you're paying
29:30
less juice. So if you want to give it a
29:32
shot, just download Novig NOVIG and in the promo code field, put
29:37
in Josh 123. That'll give you 100% deposit
29:40
match up to 25 bucks. So with that being said, two
29:44
final farewell thoughts here guys.
29:46
As always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
29:49
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods
29:51
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:54
Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield, The Nash and my
29:58
neck of the woods in on the border of Mass in New Hampshire
30:01
are out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where
30:03
Billy Walters sends his number runners, where the lowest juice
30:05
possible is found at the South Point, where sweat and sharp
30:08
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
30:11
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
30:13
to me and we're just going to do a little Dirty Birds dance.
30:16
Show me a beautiful textbook blueprint RLM play on the
30:20
Falcons. Yeah, but RLM isn't real bet
30:23
splits don't matter. OK, you keep believing that you
30:26
you you know who you are out there.
30:29
But again, Falcons huge, huge outrate winner for us last
30:32
night. Guys show me that Falcons ticket
30:35
First one's on me. Next one's on you.
30:36
We'll sweat the under Western Kentucky together tonight at the
30:39
book. So as always, guys coming off A1
30:41
and O or an O and one a great night, a terrible night, a great
30:44
week, a terrible week somewhere in the middle, whether you're
30:47
grinding, whether you feel like you can't miss or you feel like
30:50
you can't hit hit the broadside of a barn.
30:52
Just got to stick with it. Sports betting is is difficult
30:55
and it's there's a lot of ebbs and flows you're going to be
30:57
hot, you're going to be cold, you're going to be mediocre.
30:59
It happens you got to stick with it never get too high or too low
31:03
and grind the system plays and the system plays go a little
31:06
something like this. Let's bypass the games that have
31:08
red flags. Let's get down on the games that
31:10
fit our model against the public with the house, with the pros
31:14
flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
31:16
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
31:19
So have a great Tuesday night everybody, see if we get a low
31:21
scoring game in Western Kentucky and no matter what, we'll be
31:24
right back at it tomorrow for episode 374 of the All Systems
31:29
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:32
Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday night.