Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - GOLDMAN SAID THE SAME THING RIGHT BEFORE 2008 + Stock Market News 14 July 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - GOLDMAN SAID THE SAME THING RIGHT BEFORE 2008 + Stock Market News 14 July 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: This is the most important video I've ever made in the last six years.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: Two weeks ago, regular Americans bought SpaceX bonds.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: The rockets still work, Elon's still Elon, nothing has changed.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: And those bonds have lost 10% of their value.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs, the most important investment bank in the world, just ask them, they'll tell you, they sent a note to their traders.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Carnage is the word they used.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: The same word they used to describe 2007.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: The Financial Times reports banks are quietly dumping AI, offloading it, well, you have no clue.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: And if you watch the movie Margin Call about the 2008 crash, you get the picture.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: And SpaceX isn't alone here.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Oracle, the biggest companies in the world, have been borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to fund the AI boom.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the people who lend them that money, they're starting to say, no, let's dump this.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: And if you have a 401k, a target date fund, or just a pension, your money is in this.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: You didn't choose it, you weren't asked.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: So by the end of this video, you'll understand how this machine works, why the people who built it are now privately panicking, and what to do about it.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now I'm going to put a lot of information into this video because I literally have never recorded anything more important.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: So to make sure it really lands for everybody who's watching this, Winston's going to give you a free report with everything about a breakdown plus extra data that doesn't fit into this video.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: And you can download that at feedixfriends.org slash not again.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Felixfriends.org slash not again.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Links in the description.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: So here's what regular people don't understand about the AI team.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: These companies, the ones building AI, they're not funding it with their own money.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're borrowing it.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty much all of it.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Think about it like this.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine you're running a business, and every single dollar your business earns, you're spending on one giant bet.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: You're not saving anything.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: You're not keeping anything in reserve.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Every dollar is gone.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: Spend on this one thing.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now imagine you still don't have enough.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: So you go to a bank and say, hey, can I borrow a couple of hundred billion more?
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's what's happening right now with AI.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: And if that sounds like something you've heard before, it should.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: In 2007, the biggest banks in the world were doing the exact same thing with housing.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Spending everything they had, borrowing the rest, and telling everyone it was totally fine.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: So who's actually lending these people the money?
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Where's this coming from?
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: You.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Your pocket, your pensions.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Not directly.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: You probably didn't wake up one morning and decided to lend money to a data center in Texas.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: But here's how it works: these companies issue bonds.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: A bond is like an IOU.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Give us your money now, and we'll pay you back later with interest.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Possibly.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: And the funds that manage your retirement savings, your 401k, your pensions, they buy these bonds automatically without asking.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: So right now, a big chunk of your retirement portfolio is probably funding AI infrastructure you've never seen, built by companies borrowing at a pace we have never seen in the history.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: And that is exactly how subprime mortgages worked.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Regular people's retirement money was funding loans they didn't know existed in neighborhoods they'd never visited for people who could never pay them back.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody asked.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: The money just went there.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: And the numbers are really wild.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Six companies, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA, Oracle, Alphabet, and SpaceX, have borrowed more money than ever in history.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: Literally one in five dollars lent in America right now, of all the lending in America right now, is going to build AI.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's never happened before.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Not with any sector, not even close, not railroads, not dot-com.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: And having worked in banking, I can tell you, when one group of companies starts dominating the debt market like this, it always ends the same way.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: It always has.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: And if I'm really honest with you here, this is bigger than 1999.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is bigger than 2007.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: In the dot-com crash, the Nasdaq went down 78%.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: In 2008, Americans lost 40% of their retirement savings.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: But back then, tech was not 30% of the stock market.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: One-third of the stock market is tech right now.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm throwing my pen around the room because it's that's scary.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: Companies had not borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars that are now sitting inside your pension fund.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: This time the exposure is everywhere.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Every bank, every savings account, every pension fund, every weird financial product the world's come up with.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then Goldman Sachs traders, you know, the smart money, started privately using the word carnage.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is it.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: This is the actual document.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: They sent this, it's about 16 pages long.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty freaking tedious, but I can tell you what they're saying is not pretty.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: And they're not saying it on TV.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: They're saying it to each other, and they're hoping you never ever find out.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why Winston and I are going to do something we've never done before, we've never had to do before.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to teach you guys how to survive the bubble.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Literally, this Saturday, at a time you Europeans can join, Americans can join, Asians can join, Australians can join.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll show you exactly how to understand what's going on here, how to position yourself, how to protect your portfolio, how to reduce your risk before this plays out.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is not a drill.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is not a joke.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Go to survivethebubble.com, save yourself a spot.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's free.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: We'll run for two hours.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: We might even do three, because there'll be a lot of questions.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of people are going to be really unsettled by this.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Because what I'm going to show you in this video, how the money actually moves inside this machine is where it gets truly, truly ugly.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: And let me show you why I'm drawing the line from here all the way back to 2008.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: And this is not me trying to create something dramatic.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: In 2007, the housing market looked unstoppable, right?
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Best housing market in the world.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Home prices were rising every month.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Banks were reporting record profits.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody from CNBC to your neighbor's dog was saying real estate only goes up.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: But underneath all of that, the banks had built a borrowing machine.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: They were creating mortgages, they were packaging into bonds, and they were selling those bonds to retirement funds.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: And they were using the money to create even more mortgages.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: The money went in on a circle.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: On paper, everyone was getting really rich.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, a lot of bankers got really rich if they got out quick enough.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And then one day, the people buying those bonds said, We just figured out what you're doing here.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: No more.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: We don't want any more of this junk.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to sell these.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: And then the whole thing collapsed.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a beautiful film made about that called Margin Core.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'd highly recommend you watch it.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's actually very, very good.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's very fun.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's very accurate.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: And it didn't happen slowly.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't happen gently.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: It happened in just months.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: And that exact pattern borrow, build, borrow more, pray the buyers don't leave is what's happening right now in AI.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: And the buyers are starting to leave.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: The Financial Times just put it out yesterday.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: So we're seeing exactly what triggered 2008.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine for a moment, you run a big bond portfolio.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: You have a job and you manage, I don't know,$100 billion.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, a lot of your money, maybe a third of it, maybe half of it, is in these AI bonds right now.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: And let me show you this.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then let me, and then you tell me in the comments what you would do if you were the guy managing that money, maybe managing that pension fund.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Because this is the part that should make you genuinely.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, tell me how it makes you feel.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Because I I have only one one one word for this.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia, you know the company that makes the chips that power AI, right?
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: You probably know this one, right?
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks gone to the moon, amazing business, and everyone's talking about how much money they're making.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: But Wall Street doesn't really want you to look at this too closely.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia takes billions of dollars and invests it into AI startups.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds all right so far, right?
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: Companies that are building with AI, maybe they're just being generous.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: They're helping the ecosystem grow.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: But then what do those companies do?
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: So here's NVIDIA, say it puts 500 million into an AI startup.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: The startup then takes those 500 million dollars and it buys AI chips with them from guess what?
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: So the NVIDIA gives a company 500 million, and that company turns around and spends 500 million and gives it back to NVIDIA.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: NVIDIA then tells Wall Street, look at our sales.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Demand's incredible.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: The stock goes up, everyone celebrates.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: But the money just went around in a circle.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: NVIDIA paid itself and called it revenue.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when I worked in banking, there was a name for this kind of thing.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: And regulars usually have an even worse name for it.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: And NVIDIA isn't the only one doing this.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's happening everywhere.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft invested 13 billion.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: So you have Microsoft, puts 13 billion into OpenAI.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: And then OpenAI, guess what?
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: They send most of that money back.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft now has higher revenue.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Google, for example, invested billions in a company called Anthropic.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Anthropic are the guys who own Claude.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: Anthropic vended what?
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: It buys Google Cloud Services.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Google reports AI revenue growth.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon invested billions in Anthropic.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: Anthropic buys Amazon Cloud Services too.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon reports AI revenue growth.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: You see the pattern?
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: These companies are investing in each other, buying from each other, and then they're reporting the results as if the customers showed up at the door and said, hey, we'd like to buy yourselves.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: But the money really never left the building.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: It just went from one pocket to another.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: Let me make this really clear.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: I've got 50 Euro monkey money here.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: If I give this 50 euros to Winston, and then he says, Well, you know, I'm giving to him.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: And now he takes that money and he buys from me, you know, going to the beach.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: I now got 50 euros.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: And then I say to you, I made 50 euros today.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: Would that be sane?
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly what's going on out there.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now he doesn't have to take pay me to go to the beach with him.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: I couldn't think of anything better.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: So there's nobody outside of the circle that's paying for all of this, right?
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: There is one of the most respected investment firms out there, they're called Apollo.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: And they did some research.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: And they said there is no sign, zero, that companies outside of the tech sector are actually making more money from AI.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: None.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Zero.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Think about what that means.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: The entire value of these companies, trillions of dollars, is built on the promise that eventually AI will make every business on earth more profitable.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's the bet, right?
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's why the stocks are up.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's why the bonds exist.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's why your retirement money is in this.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: But so far, the only companies making money from AI are the companies selling AI to each other.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: If that sounds familiar, it's because we saw the exact same thing in 1999.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: The only companies making money from the internet were the companies selling internet to each other.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Cisco was selling routers to.coms funded by venture capital that was funded by Cisco.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, the money went around in a circle, and we know how that ended, right?
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ dropped 78%.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: It took 15 years to recover.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is where the story turns into a thriller, because what I'm about to tell you is something that almost nobody noticed when it happened.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Back in early May of this year, the Financial Times published a quiet little article.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: No big headline, no breaking news banner, just a report got on the screen here for you.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: That the biggest banks in the world, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and so on, they were secretly trying to get rid of the AI debt.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Secretly.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: They were scrambling to find new suckers, sorry, buyers, trying to chop up the loans and sell pieces of them off to anyone who'd take them, wrap them in something so you couldn't tell what it was.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because the people who are supposed to buy this debt, the normal bond investors were saying, we've had enough of this.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So think about that.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: The people who lend money for a living, the ones who do this every single day, they were basically saying quietly, we want to get out of this.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: And they didn't want anybody to notice.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: Just like in 2007.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: In the summer of 2007, the banks started quietly selling their subprime positions, hedging, offloading, months before anybody on Main Street had any idea there was a problem.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: But here is where it gets really interesting.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: 48 hours after that Financial Times article that came out that I showed you, just two days after, Goldman Sachs published a massive research report.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: And this report was not quiet.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: It was the opposite.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: It was loud, it was optimistic, it was designed to calm everybody down.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: And the report was something called agentic AI, basically the next phase of AI, where AI systems can act on their own.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman projected unlimited demand.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: They said this new phase of AI could be even bigger than anything before.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: And the mood in the bond market flipped overnight from panic to, oh, it's fine.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: Money started flowing again.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: The boring machine came back to life.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: Now, is that a coincidence?
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Banks publish research reports all the time, but the timing is uh worth paying attention to because this is the playbook.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: In 2007, the banks were privately hedging against housing while publicly telling their clients to keep buying.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs literally got taken to court by the SEC for this.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: They paid a$550 million fine to settle.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: And here we are again.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: The banks are quietly dumping risk on Tuesday.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: By Thursday, Goldman published a report saying AI is about to get even bigger.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: And the bond market, the one about to crack, reopens for business.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: So you can decide for yourself what that means.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm not putting any interpretation on this.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's up to you, right?
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: But fast forward to where we are right now: SpaceX.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: We started with that.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: SpaceX goes public, huge fun fair.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: Elon tells the world this company is worth over a trillion dollars.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: Investors pile in, and then almost immediately, SpaceX sells what?
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: A bond.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: $25 billion in bonds.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: So they go straight to the bond market, borrow a massive amount of money, and those bonds have gone down about 10%.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you might be surprised by that.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is a company worth a trillion dollars working with rockets and government contracts.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: If the bond market believed the hype, those bonds would be rock solid and trading at the price that we're issued at.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: They're not.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: The people who actually lend SpaceX money are underwater by almost 10%.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: And it tells you something, because the bond market doesn't get excited.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: The bond market doesn't tweet.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: The bond market just does maths.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: And right now, the math is saying something very different from what mainstream media is saying.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then last week, Goldman Sachs, the same people who published an optimistic report in May, the one that calmed the market down.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: Their own head derivatives trader, a chap called Brian Garrett.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote an internal note.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: I've got it right here.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: And the word he used to describe what's happening in A-Buy Bonds, Carnage.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: The exact words are this.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: Words like Carnage were being thrown around on the credit desk.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: Let that sink in.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman's public messages, AI is the future, unlimited upside.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman's private message on their own trading floor, carnage.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: And it's getting worse, faster.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: Another Goldman trader, Jeffrey Papel, laid it out in black and white too.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: He said, too much, too fast.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what he showed.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: He showed that in February, 75 billion was borrowed.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: But by June, it was only 50 billion.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: And in July, it was just 25 billion.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: Think of what that means.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's like an immune system breaking down.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: The same patient is getting sicker from a smaller and smaller dose.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: Each round of borrowing is harder to absorb.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: The system is getting more fragile.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the pattern we saw in 2007.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: The subprime market started cracking.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: People said it's just subprime, it's contained, and then it spread.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: And then it was everything, it was everywhere.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: And right now the bond market is splitting in two.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: AI bonds are falling.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Everything else is still fine.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what 2007 looked like in the summer.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: By the fall, it was all one market and it was all cracking.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: So let me connect this directly to your bank account because this isn't some abstract Wall Street problem.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: There is a very specific chain of dominoes here.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: And the last one, unfortunately, has your name on it.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_00: Domino one.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: The lenders walk away.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: The people buying AI bonds say, enough.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: No more.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: We can't take any more of this junk.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: And they're already saying this.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman's own traders are writing it internal memos right now.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: The FT confirmed it in May.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: The FT just confirmed it once again.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: And when lenders walk away, these companies can't borrow cheaply anymore.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: The cost of debt goes up.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: And we've seen in the last three months that borrowing declines every single month.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's not because they don't want to borrow, it's because they can't.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: The second domino is the spending stops.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: If borrowing gets expensive, these companies can't fund the AI build-out they promised.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking about 5.8 trillion in plans spending.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: 5.8 trillion.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that spending only works if the borrowing stays cheap.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: The second it doesn't, the plans get cut.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: The data centers don't get built.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: The orders don't get placed.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: Domino 3, the revenue disappears.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: Remember the circle?
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: Me giving money to Winston giving it back and me telling you I just make 50 euros.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: Monkey money?
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: Tech companies buying from each other.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, when the spending gets cut, that whole circle breaks.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: NVIDIA loses its biggest customers.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon, Google, and Microsoft lose their biggest source of AI revenue, which, as we showed, was largely each other.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: The revenue that Wall Street was celebrating, it evaporates.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: It slows down because it was never coming from outside the circle.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: It was coming from borrowed money going around and round and round.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: She goes.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: And then you have the fourth domino.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks fall.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: And they take everything with them.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, almost everything.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the part most people don't realize.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: The magnificent seven, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, make up one-third of the stock market.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: Think about that.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you own an S P 500 index fund, almost a third of your money is in just seven companies.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: Seven.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: And when those stocks fall, the entire stock market will fall with them.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: There is no version of a magnificent seven sell-off that stays contained.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's mathematically impossible.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: Your index fund goes down even if every other company in America is doing just fine.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where a Domino 5 comes in.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: Your retirement, the 401k, the target aid funds, your IRA, your pension.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: They all hold these same stocks.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: And probably the bonds.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: They all hold these, not because you chose them, not because you researched them, because they were put there automatically by default allocations you probably never even looked at.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: In 2008, Americans lost 40% of the retirement savings.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: Not because of bad decisions, not because they were greedy, because they didn't know what was inside their own portfolio.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: Because nobody had told them what they were exposed to, because there was a massive cover-up by those who knew.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that same setup is happening again.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: Your money, the same kind of machine, the same word, carnage, on the same bank's trading desk.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why a Goldman trader using the word carnage isn't just a bit of Wall Street gossip.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: Last time that word showed up on a Goldman trading desk, the dominoes were already falling.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: So I want to be very clear about something.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not telling you to panic here.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying sell everything tomorrow morning.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'm definitely not saying AI is fake.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: The technology is real, it's amazing.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: The chips work, the software is getting better.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: That part's true.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: But the way it's being funded, the borrowing, the circular money machine, the concentration of risk is identical to the three previous movements in history that crushed regular investors.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what I've learned from studying these mermits and teaching, you know, 25,000 students so far at the Goat Academy, but how markets actually work.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is what I talked to my mentors about.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: The difference between the people who got hurt and the people who came out ahead was never about predicting a crash.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: It was about having a plan before it mattered.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: The three questions you need to answer right now.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: How much of your money is in this, exposed to this?
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: Most people have no idea.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: Probably way more than you think.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: Two, is your retirement fund holding these bonds, probably?
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: Because these bonds are currently investment grade rated bonds, right?
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: Just like subprime mortgages were.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then three, do you have a plan for what happens if this slows down?
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have a plan for the beginning of this?
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: What if the revenue these companies are projecting just comes in a little bit more slowly?
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: Because according to Apollo, that's all it would take.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: A slower payoff will not just hurt tech stocks in their words, it would risk tipping the economy into recession and the SP 500 into a correction, you know, 30% down.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: And if you don't have a plan, if your answer is I'm not so sure, then history says you're the person who gets hugged.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: Not because you did anything wrong, because nobody told you what you were in.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: Every bubble rewards the people who prepare and punishes the people who assume someone else is watching out for them.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: No one's watching out for you.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's not pessimism, it's just history.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: We've had railroads.com, housing, every single time the tech was real, every single time the people who got destroyed were the ones who were told everything was fine.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: We were told this time is different, who were told, don't worry, the smart people have it figured out, they got your back.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the people who came out ahead, they had a plan before they needed one.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: And that's exactly why we're gonna run this live training.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Never done this before.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: I hope we're never gonna have to run this again.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't enjoy crashes more than you did.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I call this live training survive the bubble.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be step by step.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna walk you through how to check your actual exposure, how to reduce your risk, how to position yourself to come out ahead, no matter what happens.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: Whether AI keeps booming or whether this boring machine finally breaks.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not someone who called crashes.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: I have got a crystal ball, but I'm someone who looks at risk and protects my money.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: Because I enjoy my financial freedom and I'm gonna keep it.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I hope you will too.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: So go to survive the bubble.com.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: Share that link around on social media, Twitter, Facebook, wherever.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: The more people see this, the more people are gonna get helped by this.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll see you there.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: And if you are gonna be there, write Survive the Bubble in the comments down below, and I'll know you'll be there.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_00: I hope this has been helpful.