Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Starship IFT5 Update [Starbase Shutting Down?]

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Starship IFT5 Update [Starbase Shutting Down?] · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
• 0:04
  Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
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  the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The
• 0:11
  Boring Company, and Neuralink. I'm your host, Will Walden, and
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  on this episode we're going to be talking about Starship, IFT
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  4, IFT 5, possibly IFT 6, but mainly we're going to be talking
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  about an environmental group that's going to be possibly
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  contesting Starbase down in Texas.
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  Could they be cancelling Starship launches in Texas?
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  We're going to take a look at that in a second, but let's
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  first talk about I, FT4 and IFT 5.
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  IFT 4 went off without a hitch, almost.
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  There's a little bit of a hitch. The landing of the booster was
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  great. The way that the ship came back
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  into the atmosphere looked great, but there were some heat
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  tile adjustments that need to be made for I, FT-5.
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  And Elon Musk has talked about this a little bit.
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  He said that the new heat tiles for I, FT-5 will be a little bit
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  better, be able to reduce the friction, reduce the heat on the
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  ship. And also they're going to be
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  putting like a secondary layer, like a secondary skin underneath
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  those tiles. So if there's any sort of
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  leakage from the plasma that goes through those tiles and
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  hits the actual ship, there could be another material there
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  that will hopefully stop it from rupturing the stainless steel
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  construction of the ship fuselage.
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  Not only that, they're going to take a look at the hinges, where
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  the wings and the hinges of the ship itself connect, and they're
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  going to be making some adjustments to those.
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  Because as you can see from the footage from IFT 4, when it
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  comes back into the atmosphere, that's kind of where things went
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  bad, but it made it, so it's OK, right?
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  But they're trying to get this perfect.
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  So when they put people in this, it's going to be a whole
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  complete safe ship. And they need to put Starship in
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  this category of safe for people because they need to send it to
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  the moon for the Artemis program, Artemis 3 in
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  particular. And of course SpaceX thinks
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  they're going to be able to do it in a few years.
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  But experts around the globe have said numerous times it's
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  probably going to be 20-30. And not just because of
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  Starship, but because of NASA and also Axiom putting
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  everything together and making sure that all the I's are
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  dotted, all the T's are crossed before they actually launch to
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  the moon. It's a big undertaking.
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  You can't just stick somebody in a rocket and hope it works.
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  You have to make sure that it's completely safe.
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  And if it's not completely safe, they have to not do it.
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  So there, there was a little margin for error, but this is
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  going to be a margin that SpaceX doesn't want to deal with.
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  So they're going to get this right in the next few flights
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  for the ship. Now, Elon also mentioned
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  something about landing the booster back at Starbase instead
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  of in the Gulf of Mexico. Did they get enough data?
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  Elon mentioned this in a in a post that he had on X the other
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  day. He did a live stream and he was
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  watching some games, watching some stuff and he just talked,
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  started talking about Starship. Basically.
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  He talked about will they be catching IFT 5 and he said they
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  don't quite have enough data yet to see if they're going to catch
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  this thing, but there's a possibility that they still
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  will. So what Elon was saying he got
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  excited after ift 4 landed after everything looked great he's
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  like we're going to try to lot we're trying to catch it in IFT
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  5 everybody blew up I went nuts I was like no this can't happen
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  like you're going to ruin everything can't do it.
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  I freaked out. So IFT 5 Elon's, like if we have
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  enough data that supports that we can actually land this thing,
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  we're going to do it. So on the way back to the
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  landing, the, the explosive mechanism that destroys the
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  booster on its way back down to Earth gets saved, right?
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  So at some time during the flight it gets saved.
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  So will they be able to change that?
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  Will the FAA be able to change that before this next flight?
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  Will they have to make they have to make sure that they destroy
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  the the booster if they get enough data that says it might
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  not make it back or they might do a landing in the Gulf of
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  Mexico again. So we're going to see that's
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  where we're at right now. We're going to see if we're
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  going to wait and see what Elon and SpaceX say.
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  But Elon said they're going to try to launch this thing in
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  July. How could they launch this in
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  July? Like within a month?
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  The turn around could be pretty quick if I mean, if that's the
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  case, if he thinks, but he's also said that in the past,
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  right? So Elon has said that in the
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  past that they're going to launch this thing in a month,
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  which of course they they've never done before.
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  So could this be the first time that they do a one month turn
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  around for Starship? That's another thing we have to
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  think about. One month turn around for
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  Starship would be incredible. They have other boosters ready,
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  They have a ship ready. They've done some testing
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  already, but they haven't done final testing.
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  They haven't done a final stack, they haven't done AD stack.
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  They haven't checked all the ground systems again, they're
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  just getting over IFT 4. They haven't even moved
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  everything to the pad yet and it's been a few days.
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  So what's happening? You know, if it were going to be
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  in a month, they would have that stuff down there already and
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  starting the testing out. So I don't think they're going
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  to make it in the month. I think they're going to be
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  close if they if they can figure it out really quick, They have
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  to pour through a bunch of data. They have to talk to the FAA to
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  get another license. You know, the, the incident
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  report for I FT3 was kind of it was pushed aside for the flight.
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  Why are they going to be doing that for IFT 4 two probably and
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  IFT 5 as well. So we're going to see what
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  happens with that. Right now it's a waiting game.
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  As much as everybody's excited about a July flight, I don't
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  think it's going to happen. I think we're going to be
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  getting like, you know, maybe, you know, maybe not an early
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  July flight, but maybe like a late July flight.
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  I think that might happen. So not quite a month, a little
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  bit over a month, I should say. So like a month and three weeks
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  or something like that. Could be the next flight of
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  Starship or a little bit longer. It could be two months.
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  They might have a lot of work to do and they might have to change
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  some things. So not only do they have the
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  hardware right, So we see the hardware testing on the outside.
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  We see the booster blast for the for the tests.
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  We also see the ship blast for the test.
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  You know, they check all the engines, make sure everything
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  works, make sure the ground systems work.
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  They cryogenically cool it. They make sure all of that
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  hardware works. But when you are inside of the
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  ship, there's electronics. And within those electronics
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  there's code. You know, the code that runs it.
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  It's important. And if something is a little bit
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  off, they might have to recode a bunch of stuff.
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  And sure, code is a little bit faster than building a rocket,
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  of course, but you got a debug code, you have to test it, you
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  have to QA it. There's all sorts of steps that
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  you have to do in order to make sure that the code works
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  properly every single time. So you don't get spaghetti code,
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  which is kind of a, it's a code word for just a bunch of garbage
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  code in there that nobody really wants or uses anymore.
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  Yeah, I got to have clean code. So every single flight they
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  probably look at the code and go, how can we improve?
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  You know, if they're not doing that, then I don't see, you
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  know, why did they, why they, why wouldn't they do that?
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  They have to do that every flight.
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  How can we make the code better to make things more efficient?
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  We don't want to use as many lines of code.
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  You know, we want to use as few lines of code as possible.
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  The best part is no part, right? So I have T5, possibly late
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  July. That's what I'm guessing.
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  Let me know in the comments what you think, what you think about
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  that. I think late July, good estimate
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  for IFT 5 flight, maybe early July too or early August.
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  So that'll be a hot one. That'll be really hot 1.
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  So I also want to talk to you about this.
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  There's another thing. Starship launch damage, shore
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  bird nests, environmental survey finds.
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  OK, so we've had some stuff like this before, right?
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  Environmentalists love to hate on Starship and the surrounding
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  area because it's a protected environmental zone.
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  It's a protected beach. It's a they're in a protected
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  area, this giant rocket factory and giant rockets are in a
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  protected area. So wildlife here is very
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  precious now. Piping plovers and turtles and
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  things like that are protected species.
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  Now here I'm going to zoom in a little bit for you so you can
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  see some of this text said last week, launch of Starship from
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  South Texas damaged or destroyed numerous shore bird nests in the
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  area surrounding the private space company's launch
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  facilities, according to a new report that also noted other
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  environmental damages. The nonprofit Coastal Band Bays
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  and Estuaries Program said its survey found that each of nine
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  nests it monitored South of the launchpad had missing and broken
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  eggs after Thursday morning's launch.
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  OK, ongoing here. What's they say down here?
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  Ongoing and annual monitoring. A Boca Chigari has documented
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  shifts and overall reductions in shore bird nesting activity in
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  recent years since rocket testing and launch activity
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  began. OK, so they do surveys around
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  the Texas Parks and Wildlife Area, where SpaceX is planted,
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  where they where they have all of their facilities.
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  And this is what the environmentalists and the
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  environmental studies are going to be looking to do possibly in
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  the future. So if they can show enough
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  evidence that SpaceX is damaging endangered species under the
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  Endangered Species Act, some populations of snow plovers are
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  considered a near threatened species.
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  The Texas population is not among them, but the Snowy and
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  Wilson's plovers are, however, considered species of greatest
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  conservation need under the state Wild Wildlife Action Plan
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  monitored by the Texas Park and Wildlife Department.
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  OK, So what does that mean? It means there's really
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  endangered species near Starbase, and if SpaceX destroys
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  any of their habitats, they could be at fault and
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  environmental groups could sue them.
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  They could go to court for this. Could they possibly halt
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  Starship operations and launches from Starbase until SpaceX
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  figures this out and how to protect these animals?
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  The answer is probably. They've done it before.
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  Remember when they had the environmental study a little
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  while ago and it took them months and months to figure this
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  out. So Elon and company, along with
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  the government came to a conclusion that they didn't
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  really damage anything environmentally.
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  So they had to put in some measures to protect it so they
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  didn't damage it in the future. And that's kind of where we're
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  at with these environmental or endangered species here, is if
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  they can prove enough that SpaceX is destroying these
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  species of birds and becoming a detriment to them, they could
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  possibly halt production of Starships and halt launches of
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  Starbase while there's another environmental review.
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  Could this happen? If there's enough evidence?
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  I believe it could. I believe it could because if,
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  and they already did an environmental review, but it's
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  not unheard of to do numerous environmental reviews if there's
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  more evidence shown. It's not, it's not like court.
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  You don't go to court and you know, say if you did a crime,
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  you're like, Oh yeah, you got off, you know, like, cool,
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  you're not guilty. OK, so then you then you're
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  free, right? The court said you're free, but
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  there's more evidence because this is an ongoing thing.
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  So they said at the time SpaceX had altered a wild or a habitat
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  on a Wildlife Refuge. So if they're building a case
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  here with if they can do hundreds of, if they can show
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  hundreds of pieces of evidence for this, could they halt
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  Starbase for a little while? SpaceX, as you can see in the US
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  Fish and Wildlife Service in Texas Parks and Wildlife
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  Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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  Of course they wouldn't. This could be a big deal.
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  Could be a big deal if they, if they're shown to destroy some
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  endangered species, either A, they would just pay a fine,
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  which is probably going to be the case.
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  Probably going to pay a fine to be like, oh man, we didn't know.
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  We didn't know this was going to happen.
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  Or if they do it enough, they pay a bunch of fines, which, you
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  know, they should pay for what they did wrong.
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  Of course everybody should. That's the right thing to do.
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  But if they really destroy some stuff and then these habitats
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  and these birds never come back and SpaceX is at fault.
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  Look, I'm with you. I understand we need to go to
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  Mars, right? We need to go to Mars.
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  And I, I want us to go to Mars. But we only live on Earth,
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  right? We live on Earth.
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  We should protect it and take care of it.
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  This is our home. We don't live on Mars yet.
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  So at least protect this stuff. And I, I think what was what
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  would actually happen is the Department of Wildlife in the
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  Texas Parks Wildlife Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service and
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  SpaceX. But I'll come to a conclusion of
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  how to protect these these species and what can SpaceX do
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  even more than they've already done to protect these species.
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  And I think that's the case. What would happen here as
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  opposed to them shutting down operations?
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  Unless it's really bad, If it's really bad, then SpaceX could do
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  something. You know, it could be, could be
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  something really bad. So we'll see.
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  We'll see in the, that's pretty much where we're at right now.
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  We'll see what happens, see if there's any sort of if there's
• 15:03
  any sort of Wildlife Conservation department and
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  these environmentalist groups, if they talk to each other and
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  if there's a lawsuit, we'll see. But I'm excited for IFT 5
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  because it's not going to happen before IFT 5.
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  I'm excited for IFT 5I. I would love for them to catch
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  the booster, but I don't think it's going to happen.
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  I don't think it's, I don't think it's worth it.
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  That's not worth it for SpaceX to do that.
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  So I don't think IFT 5 is going to be a catch.
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  I think IFT 6 is going to be a catch, maybe IFT 7, maybe
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  they're going to wait a little bit, which they probably should.
• 15:51
  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
• 15:53
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