Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Rate Cut Chances Rising🚀September Incoming

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Fed Rate Cut Chances Rising🚀September Incoming · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All right, rate cut pressures are boiling? Are we going
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: to see an early rate cut? We'll break it all
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: down for you. Miname, it was Paul bare Welcome back
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: in the tech path.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: Let's get go on.
• 0:12
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• 0:21
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• 0:44
  Speaker 1: get going on self custody. Let's get into rate cut
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: chances and what this looks like. Markets are now seeing
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: an eighty eight percent chance of a rate cut by
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the September FED meeting. Now remember we have the July
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: FED meeting, then they skip August, and then we go
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: into September. My concern is that September is too late.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I'm still pushing and hoping that we get of July raycut.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: And remember that the July FED meeting is in the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: last two days of July. A lot of things can
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: happen between now and then. President Trump, of course, is
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: considering naming the FED chair Powell's replacement as soon as
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the summer, in a bid to undermining Will Trump remove
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Jerome Palell in twenty twenty five? The odds are rising
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: here on poly market. You can kind of see rising
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: now up to fourteen percent of it was the highest
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: sixteen percent. Let me know in the comments what you
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: guys think. Is he out before the end of twenty
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: twenty six or twenty twenty five as he goes.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Remember his term ends in twenty twenty six.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So some cool things going on here where we might
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: get a ray cut definitely in twenty twenty six.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I think the question is.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Will we get the ray cuts this year? We'll go
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Should be should Trump be allowed to fire Palell? Take
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: a look.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: He should absolutely be allowed to fire the FED share
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: if the FED chair is not doing a good job.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Stewart here's the truth. If this guy ran for office,
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: he'd be thrown out overnight. The truth of the matter
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: is that Jerome Powell has done an awful job. He
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: was too late to respond to the rising prices. In
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two we had nine
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: percent inflation. He bears the burden, and President Trump is
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: right to call him out for it.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: What in fact you think it would have on the
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: stock market. I mean that would unsettle the market, wouldn't it.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: I think it absolutely would have to tell you the truth.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm an investor, so I think that the
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: stock market would probably panic and overreact in the moment.
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: But the founders of our country did not envision a
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: world where Jerome Powell can screw up so badly as
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: he has done over the past couple of years and
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: still keep his job. If the President of the United
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: States cannot hold executive offercers accountable for doing a bad job,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: then Stewart, guess what They're going to keep doing a
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: bad job. And so Jerome Powell is not above reproach.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: He should be held accountable. And if the President of
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: the United States wants to terminate him and put a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: more qualified person in that position. The constitution says he
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: has a right to do.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: That, all right.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So a couple of points to get out here. If
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Trump was successful in removing Powell. First of all, I
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: think everybody needs to know we would most likely see.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: A market crash.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Now, how long would that last and what kind of
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: implications that would have still yet to be known. But
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: if you look at the strategy that maybe the White
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: House is taking along with a lot of Congress right now,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: putting a lot of pressure on Palell to get going
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: because we are seeing falling interest rates or excuse me,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: falling rates on houses, falling rates on car sales, as
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: well as next up will be retail. It's the thing
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: that I'm most concerned around is towards the end of
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the year, let me go over to the poly market,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: because this is the potentials that could be next up
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: for Chair Powell's job. Chris Waller is the leader right
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: now at twenty four percent.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: He's in the lead.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: And then if you look at what Waller's position is,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: well it's kind of obvious, and that is that he
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: thinks we should see a central rank cut, central bank
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: cut by as early as July This is kind of
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the scenario I believe is the one that should play out,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: only because of the pressures that are continued. There's two
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: frames of thought here too. If he does the pressure
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: coming from not only the White House administration, but I
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: think all of Congress and a lot of financial entities
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: putting a lot of pressure on Powell right now. If
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: he were to cut I think he would still have
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the opportunity to reposition later. Remember he did something nobody
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: expected last year, and that was a fifty basis point
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: cut when he didn't need to do it, but it
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: was right before an election, So he's still within his
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: means of being able to get a twenty five basis
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: point cut in July and watch and see how the
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: market responds. I think there would be a huge run
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: into the market and it will show faith that this
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: correction is underway. And maybe getting away from the two
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: late pal Moniker, we'll see I want to.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Go to a clip right here.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: This, of course, is Elizabeth Warren going at pal for
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: a different reason than you might think.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: You agree with Chairman Powell on these issues, or you
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: think he should go ahead and cut rates anyway, because
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: that's what the president.
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: Is I look, I still want to see the interest
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: rates come down. I think they should lower. I want
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: to see those interst rates come down. I do understand
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: that conditions have changed, and that Chair Pal says it
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: is now harder to lower the interest rates than it
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: would have been earlier. It is harder than it would
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: be if Donald Trump were not out there creating this
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: kind of economic chaos. And as a result, what we
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: get is an enormous amount of holding back. And I
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: think that's why you see the shift in the GDP projections.
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: That's a shrinking of the economy that we're experiencing now
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: because independently across this country, big companies and small companies
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: are saying, man, I'm not taking a risk, I'm not
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: making a big investment into that kind of an uncertainty.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: And who is causing all that? One person, Donald Trump?
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So the point being is that when you do a
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: shift in GDP like what we are experiencing in the rate,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I should say the adjustment of GDP, this is something
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: that will affect jobs. And at some point that's when
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Powell will unfortunately be too late, because at that point
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: you're like a snowball rolling down a hill. In many cases,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: it's difficult for major corporations to reverse course, mainly because
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of the impact on their own business. So there are
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: some issues right now that really kind of center around
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: what his position is guiding the economy out of what
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: has been I still think a recession, a soft one,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: but still a recession. If you look at his rating,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: this is approval rating. This goes all the way back
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: to twenty twenty one. Granted that was during a bull run.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: It was during him printing fifty three percent overall approval.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: That of course declined in twenty four down to forty
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: three percent, and now it is at thirty seven percent
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: in April of twenty twenty five. My anticipation is this
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: probably slips below thirty percent in the coming months as
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: we see more and more pressure from both markets and
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: also the economy playing out. Pals in a bad position
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: right now. The other thing that I was getting at
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: right here is the Q one twenty twenty five GDP.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: This was revised down by point three. This is where
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I'm getting at, and I think, I don't want to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: say that I agree with Warren, but she is right
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: in the sense that there are a lot of people
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: that are probably on the sidelines right now because of
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: this volatile situation, which I think is why we're seeing
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: so much pressure from the Trump administration, because they see
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the potential slap down the slope that could happen if
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: in fact, they don't get this under control. Remember, real
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: estate is one of the big ones that is now
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: starting to be impacted. We showed this yesterday in the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: federal cut potential for July, and that is number of
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: home buyers versus the number of home sellers. First time
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: we've seen a flip like this in a very very
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: long time. And when you look at interest rates for
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: a new mortgage at over six percent, that is going
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: to slow down buyers in a big way.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: It's going to cause havoc.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: In the sales price of homes, and that is a
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: big deal. When you talk about most of Americans, their
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: net worth is made up of it in that home.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: So a lot of things starting to get into this. Now,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: how do you play and how do you invest in
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: this market at this time?
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I think the dynamic still of play is that you
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: have an economy that remains fairly resilient, which is actually
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: pretty remarkable given the headlines we've had. You have greater
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: support from fixed income just from an income level and
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: a carry level, regardless of what the FED does in
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: the back half of the year, and then you have
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: an equity market. I've been encouraged to see some of
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: the broadening outside of technology, which has been just a
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: v shape one way for the past several years. So
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: I think that's I think I would say, at the margin,
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: fixed income is compelling, and then I would be looking
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: outside of tech, not because tech is in a bubble,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: but rather if this is an enduring expansion of the
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: equity market, we're going to test new highs. We've got
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: to see a broadening in participation in other sectors.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: But again, unless we see a wild.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: Shift further in tariff rates, it will not be enough
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: to derail expansion this year.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with the fact that even though we
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: have seen the highest and the most fast ratio of
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: interest rate raises that we've ever seen yet at that time,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: we've still seen a continuation of the s and P
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: five hundred continue to climb. And I think there are
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: two things happening here. One there is the have nots,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: and that is the one that's being affected most by
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: these high interest rates. People who need cars, wanting to
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: buy their first home. Those kinds of situations are real.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Then you have the unfortunate issue is you have the rich,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: and the rich have been able to accelerate into what
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: is maybe the next generation of a Golden age, and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of this will be led by
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: blockchain AI and where the next generation of these tech
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: companies come from, and maybe a little bit of a shift.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So I'm still very bullish on where tech is going
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: to go, but it needs to be in a position
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: where the rest of the economy can come along with it.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: That's where rates are so important. So it is a
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: big deal. You look at foreign investors the purchase one
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty eight trillion worth of US financial assets.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: This is since nineteen ninety one. This is a net
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: according to Boa, and this has been particularly driven by
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: equity persages, so everybody is in on US equity. So
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it's very clear that regardless of the fact that the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: FED has been the hardest cutting, we have continued to
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: see the rich getting richer, and I think that is
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the big point going forward for Pale. This is the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: way he's going to be able to adjust the economy
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: justin Also other things going on right now to the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: judges denied ripples SEC requests and SEC's request to end
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the XRP case early, there are some things going on
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: within this.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: This was metal law.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: He kind of notes on this that the ripple and
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the Ripple and SEC do not need permission from any
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: courts to dismiss They can go in and just run
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: their dismissals. So I think that most likely will be
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the case here going forward. Other things that are happening
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: right now in the market, you've got Calci and Polymarket
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: going head to head with Calshe's valuation almost that double
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of Polymarket, which I think Polymarket is really the better product,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: but they've been unable to really get positioned here in
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the US.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Shane Copeland as one of Time one hundred's most influential
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So this is going to be very critical, I think
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: for not only markets, what we'll see in predictive areas
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: around sports, the future of predictive marketing. We're going to
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: see a lot of issues I think that are going
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to flow into this area and who's going to win,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Other things that are happening right now,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: is EACHCC is getting ready to take place over in cans.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: There are some things to watch when you take a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: look at who the sponsors are. I guess who you
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: have right there at front and center, robin Hood and see.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: This is something that we've talked about over the last
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: few weeks, is that Robinhood may be getting ready to
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: drop a massive bomb into the market of something that
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: could really affect crypto. I think in general you've got
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to keep an eye on what they're doing because they
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: could end up with token I security and it's very
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: possible we could see this moving into one of the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: blockchains we've mentioned here.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Before on the show.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: If you look at all the others down there, I
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: mean there's a lot of people there. So the potential
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: here is a big announcement even Base running in as
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: a Ruby sponsorship level on that versus Robinhood running in
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: at the top tier. Other things I want to hit
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: on is, if you remember we talked about this, Robinhood
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: has got this deal where if you transfer your tokens
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: into Robinhood before July seventh, you can get up to
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: earn up to two percent. There is a caveat and
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: that is that they got to hit this big number,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: and whether or not they do is the question mark.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Beuse.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: It's one percent if they don't, it's two percent if
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: they do. So it's kind of community effort, So just
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: be aware of that. For you guys, if you're thinking
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: two percent, you can't necessarily just get two percent automatically
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: by investing in there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Be aware of that.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: We've talked about Global Dollar Network before, and this of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: course is where a lot of companies and entities start
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: utilizing it. Look at the potential of any kind of
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: stable coin, I think the opportunity is going.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: To be distribution.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: So the fact that Kracken is launching this out there,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: most likely this is going to go out on Robinhood.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: We'll see this most likely in retail centers, big brands, etc.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: That may go this route as well. All right, guys, we're.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Covering a lot of what's going to be coming out
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: of CANS next week as we start to see some
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: of the materials release big deals. I think, so pay
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: attention there. If you're not subscribe, make sure and do that.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: And if you're in the diamond circle, get in. Leave
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: a link down below. You guys can get to that
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: it's free, and of course follow me on x at
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time, right here on
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: tech Path