Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Fed Rate Cut Decision: Live Press Conference Reaction and Betting Market Fun

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Fed Rate Cut Decision: Live Press Conference Reaction and Betting Market Fun · CRYPTO 101

• 0:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: All right, everybody.
• 0:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: Welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money and it is a in prompt to fed day with Tevo and Brian Brian was nice enough to clear schedule for the afternoon
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have a fed rate decision.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: It was unchanged as expected.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: So nothing crazy there, although coming off the wire right now, Brian, I saw that there's, you know, the fed in their kind of their minutes that they released to the press.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: I just saw a headline.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's no clear decision on when cuts may resume.
• 0:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: Um, obviously that is going to tickle the White House administration the wrong way.
• 0:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have a new Fed president who will be decided by Donald Trump, the president.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: Again, politics aside, that's just the way it goes.
• 0:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: This does affect the markets, top to bottom from the stock market to crypto.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: So that's why we're covering it.
• 1:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Um, but we try to do it in a fun, unique way.
• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: So if this is your first time listening to the Fed decision day, um, it basically it goes like this.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: Brian and I, we got 10 minutes here.
• 1:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're going to go back and forth on a little bit of Fed news.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: Uh, we're going to have some fun in the prediction markets.
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're going to talk about that.
• 1:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: And we're going to place some wagers.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: Again, nothing that we say or do here is financial ice.
• 1:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: We are just a couple guys having some fun in the prediction markets.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then in 10 minutes, a Fed share power will come to the podium.
• 1:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: will he say good afternoon will he not it's at 96% right now and we're going to see what happens during the press conference before he goes on will give you some of our wages and you can follow along for fun.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: I will keep if you're on the audio version I'll keep the press conference in there because again the press conference is important.
• 1:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: The most important part is probably the Q&A markets move to that.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm a lot of the time.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: So we're just here to have fun and break it down and we appreciate you joining us a couple of people are piloting here on the chat.
• 2:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've got J.C. J.C. in the air arc block army.
• 2:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: Stand up there.
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: He is all right.
• 2:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: J.C. was going on brother.
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: Brian, welcome.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: Welcome to Fed Day once again.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: Not a super exciting one as we said at least leading up to the jump, but I don't know there could be some fireworks this afternoon.
• 2:17
  [SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, it could get interesting.
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_06]: I mean, we probably overall want to more of a boring meeting out there, but who knows, who knows what could happen on Fed Day, it could definitely move the markets, poll it, he has a few more left.
• 2:32
  [SPEAKER_06]: Like this is third to last until he's gone.
• 2:35
  [SPEAKER_06]: Uh, essentially so we'll find out what happens, but good afternoon, the smash 99% right now.
• 2:42
  [SPEAKER_06]: So that's uh, that's obviously Paul's crutch to get the get the press call.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: I got it in it.
• 2:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I did.
• 2:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: I did take the good afternoon.
• 2:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: I got in at 97%.
• 2:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: So just like a little, you know, a little short term treasury bond.
• 2:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: play is uh is the play there just get a couple box out of it maybe we'll go over our picks in a second but just to uh I had to google it myself uh May 15th um so the May 6 7th meeting is going to be his last one uh before he heads off to a nice summer vacation although
• 3:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: there's so much drama around the fed it is kind of interesting it's like its own reality TV show so just because he's done the the the the the leadership of the fed president doesn't mean he actually has to leave um he has the ability to stay on the board of fed governors for a couple of years is something that I've literally learned um while studying it uh this couple of cycles of when this has been basically must watch television with the feud between him and the
• 3:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: President and obviously the Fed had such a big to do during the COVID era of just injecting crazy amount of liquidity.
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: So he can stay if he wants and be a member of the Fed.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm not sure about the voting rights versus just opinion pieces, but it doesn't mean that when his presidency of being the Fed, president is done, he doesn't have to leave.
• 4:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now history shows that usually after being the president you do leave on the last couple have.
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: that has yet to be determined or even discussed.
• 4:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm sure he maybe he might get a question about that today.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: We will see.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let's pull up true flesh in because again, this is kind of different sides of the ball, right?
• 4:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: The fed seems the more I've learned about it, the more it seems political.
• 4:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just like, you know, Democrats and Republicans, there's hawks and doves and people who want to cut people who don't are people that even might think you should raise because in place all based around inflation right inflation's out of control inflation's not coming down so I pulled out true
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: uh... as you can see here in that one point one six percent so obviously the people that follow this metric uh... the crypto community does love true flesh and i know we had their uh... founder on the podcast couple times he was a great guy so um... it shows that you know again in their metric uh... inflation has been coming down and the measurement that the fed uses in the government uses
• 5:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: is is the argument there is that it's a little outdated it's too heavy on housing it takes in oil it's like you know however you can cock these numbers a lot of people argue that the government's version is a little outdated so that we got that coming down and then the most the second thing when I saw something see if there's some breaking news here but the second thing is who is going to be the next the next said president
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: and that took a while to turn this week.
• 5:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think we mentioned it on the run-down, but I thought if we were doing this we could actually pull up the numbers here because as you'll see on top Rick Reader is now leader in the clubhouse at 42% so you can see him he's the the light blue here but just last week he was he was four three four four point four five percent and then
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: and then he jumps out to 18 and then you know went all the way up to 52% at one point Brian and we covered Rick Reader.
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: We played a clip from him on the run-down.
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: So if you're interested in this stuff and did not listen to that run-down with Brian and John Monday, go back, check the timestamps because I played a clip of Rick Reader and how he kind of looked at the markets and it was an interview from a couple months ago and he was spot on with his kind of take on how to build a portfolio and he did mention Bitcoin which we thought was really interesting.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Rick Reader, the Bond King, Kevin Worst, Christopher Waller, Kevin Asset.
• 6:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: Again, this is why this stuff is so fascinating, the polymarket stuff Brian, which again, you are a leader on bringing it to us for this prediction market super cycle.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Kevin Asset, not that long ago, he must have been this orange one, right?
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, look.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: So look at Kevin Asset, not that long ago, 84%, 84%.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then just a slow decline and then look at him now, it's 7%.
• 6:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, so any thoughts, I mean, you could you could talk Fed if you don't have to take on the Fed.
• 6:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: You could talk prediction markets here, but what did you see in?
• 6:59
  [SPEAKER_06]: What a time to be alive with these prediction markets, man.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_06]: We were literally pulling this up multiple times a day to get a sense of what's going to happen in the actual real world.
• 7:10
  [SPEAKER_06]: And I find this fascinating, especially with this,
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_06]: nomination of the fed chair because uh... we did uh... has it had it looked a cast it was going to be the fed chair you know it was just there's so may overwhelming reports calling market was through the roof but i guess the insiders didn't have that locked down because good old uh... rick reader looks to be the leader of the clubhouse right now and what what see that he's the cio at black rock i know he's with black rocks so he's got some big ties there
• 7:39
  [SPEAKER_06]: I like that because I looked a little bit into this after I'll run down because I said on our run down I was like I think he's mentioned that Bitcoin could flip gold in some past interviews so I did a little due diligence and I was able to find out some of find some talks where he's mentioned that in the past so not only is he familiar with what Bitcoin is
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_06]: He's been on record saying that he sees a path for flipping gold.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_06]: Now, do we think that's going to happen?
• 8:07
  [SPEAKER_06]: That would be awesome for the flip one day.
• 8:09
  [SPEAKER_06]: But as the way things looks, it looks like precious metals are the talk of the town right now.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_06]: So if it would flip gold, I think we'd all be whipping around in our Lamborghinis.
• 8:21
  [SPEAKER_06]: But it's exciting.
• 8:22
  [SPEAKER_06]: I'm excited to see how it all shakes out.
• 8:24
  [SPEAKER_06]: But this polymarket stuff makes these meetings, especially in an FOMC meeting.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_06]: that I don't want to say it's going to be boring today because we can get a lot of great information, but we all are kind of expecting no rate cut, really hopefully no major fireworks, but these prediction markets still keeps me in the game, not finding it to advice for anybody out there, but while Tivo was so elegantly doing the introduction, I deep-gall blew up a little bit of a tariff over 13 times mentioned today.
• 8:53
  [SPEAKER_06]: I just feel like he's going to lean into it.
• 8:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: Good, tariff over 13 times.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm going to go over mine in a second.
• 9:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just want to give out shoutouts of Rob from Wisconsin.
• 9:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: We got Deborah in here, and we've got a white sub, a white sub with sub brother.
• 9:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: I saw a question about a wallet.
• 9:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: You'll have to come back to a different live, because we're just focusing on the Fed.
• 9:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: And we got one minute here before he goes live.
• 9:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: But we see your questions.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: We love them.
• 9:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: Just bring that back to a different live, hopefully.
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then we had a question on the clarity, act update.
• 9:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm Deborah, we'll cover that on Friday with Brendan.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: I did see a headline that's some White House officials and cryptocurrency banking, top crypto and banking executives are meeting next week.
• 9:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: So we'll cover that on Friday with Brendan.
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, but let's go.
• 9:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have a little rundown of what I did.
• 9:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: I like this mentioned market stuff.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I have a mentioned market for ADP, which is jobs numbers.
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have a mention on good afternoon.
• 9:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's obviously an intro.
• 9:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have goods inflation.
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have yes on recession.
• 9:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: because I don't think we see any risk of recession and then I here's two that I really like 16% chance yes on gas gasoline or natural gas because I think possibly we could be talking about the big storm that it could he say we want to we want to monitor gas especially natural gas first on chance that you know there might be a huge pump in that because people are super cold right now and dealing with that.
• 10:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: and then I have yes on a 31% chance for subpoena because the White House has subpoenaed the Fed for their building, you know, they're doing the construction and they have not sent the documents requested for that subpoena.
• 10:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: It is going to come up in the in the press conference.
• 10:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: That is a not financial advice.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: Tevo Guarantee.
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have the press conference up right now waiting for him to look into the room.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: But Brian, what do you think there?
• 10:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: I have those written down.
• 10:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: So we'll track them during the event.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: Well, was yours as well.
• 10:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: Here's was Tara.
• 10:46
  [SPEAKER_06]: I've terrified over 13 times.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_06]: I jumped.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_06]: I piggybacked you on subpoena because you told me about it.
• 10:53
  [SPEAKER_06]: I don't have good afternoon even.
• 10:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: Good afternoon as a lot afternoon as a lot.
• 11:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: Good afternoon as a lot.
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: Purple tie.
• 11:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: It is coming into 2026 on a firm footing.
• 11:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• 11:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: Can support of our goals today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
• 11:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.
• 11:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: And contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak.
• 12:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: The temporary shutdown of the federal government likely weighed on economic activity last quarter, but these effects should be reversed as the reopening boosts growth this quarter.
• 12:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening.
• 12:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: The unemployment rate was 4.4% in December and has changed little in recent months.
• 12:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: Job gains have remained low.
• 12:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: Total non-farm payrolls declined at an average pace of 22,000 per month over the last three months, excluding government employment, private payrolls rose at an average pace of 29,000 per month.
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: A good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects the decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
• 13:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: Other indicators, including openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth show little change in recent months.
• 13:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal.
• 13:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: Testimates based on the consumer price index indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.9% over the 12 months ending in December and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 3.0%.
• 13:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the good sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.
• 13:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing in the service sector.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_16]: Near-term measures of inflation expectations have declined from last year's peaks, as reflected in both market and survey-based measures.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_16]: Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_16]: Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
• 14:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at three and a half to three and three quarters percent.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: Since last September, we've lowered our policy rate 75 basis points or three quarters of percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral.
• 14:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: This normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward two percent.
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_16]: Once the effects
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: We're well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, new evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
• 14:56
  [SPEAKER_16]: Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.
• 15:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices.
• 15:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2% goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
• 15:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans.
• 15:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: We at the Fed will continue to do our jobs without activity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people.
• 15:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: Thank you.
• 15:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: I look forward to your questions.
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: Hi, that's pretty quick.
• 15:40
  [SPEAKER_05]: Yes, we're out of state.
• 15:41
  [SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.
• 15:44
  [SPEAKER_05]: I wanted to ask that you attended the Supreme Court hearing last week on the lease of Coke case and Treasury Secretary Scott Bess and criticized that as political.
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_05]: Say why you attended and what you would say in response to the Secretary's criticism,
• 15:59
  [SPEAKER_16]: So let me start with, I don't respond to comments by other officials, whoever they may be, it's just not appropriate to do that.
• 16:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: I will tell you why I attended.
• 16:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: I would say that that case is perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history.
• 16:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: And as I thought about it, I thought it would might be hard to explain why I didn't attend.
• 16:24
  [SPEAKER_16]: In addition, Paul Volcker went to a Supreme Court case famously and I guess in 1985 or so.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's precedented and I thought it was an appropriate thing and I did it.
• 16:36
  [SPEAKER_05]: Great.
• 16:36
  [SPEAKER_05]: And then just quickly follow on the job market, you mentioned last month that the household survey might be distorted.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_05]: And you also mentioned the potential for overcounting jobs, which would suggest that we're still in a negative hiring pace.
• 16:56
  [SPEAKER_05]: So do you see the drop in the unemployment rate as solid?
• 17:00
  [SPEAKER_05]: And what's the basis for saying that things have stabilized?
• 17:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: Thank you.
• 17:05
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, yeah, really two questions.
• 17:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: One is, so we're, we're getting through the, the distortions in the data from the shutdown.
• 17:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: What, however big they were in, November they're smaller in December, so we're getting to a place where they're no longer material.
• 17:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're still there, but it's a tweak here and there.
• 17:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: The reason why we, why we changed the statement.
• 17:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'll just pull it out.
• 17:28
  [SPEAKER_16]: It was simply, it used to say that judges that downside risks to a planet rose in recent months.
• 17:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we saw data coming in, which suggests some signs of stabilization.
• 17:40
  [SPEAKER_16]: I wouldn't go too far with that, but some signs of stabilization are also some signs of continued cooling, and so we thought that was no longer an accurate description of the data.
• 17:51
  [SPEAKER_16]: In addition,
• 17:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: The outlook for economic activity has improved clearly improved since the last meeting and that should matter for labor demand and for employment over time.
• 18:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: So for those two reasons we thought we would take that language out of the statement.
• 18:14
  [SPEAKER_12]: the Wall Street Journal.
• 18:15
  [SPEAKER_12]: Chair Powell, you've generally avoided engaging with political controversy directly in the video statement on January 11th was a departure.
• 18:24
  [SPEAKER_12]: What made this different and are you concerned that could draw the institution further into political debates?
• 18:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: So today on...
• 18:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'm simply going to refer you to the statement that I made on January 11.
• 18:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'm not going to expand on it or repeat it.
• 18:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, I'm just not going to, this is really about the press conference and the economy and what we did today, but in some answers, I'm not going to be getting into that.
• 18:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: Can you say whether the Fed has responded to the subpoenas?
• 18:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: I don't think for you on that today.
• 18:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Right, just down if the question happens.
• 19:00
  [SPEAKER_15]: My cookie for Bloomberg.
• 19:02
  [SPEAKER_15]: I think he has to say, I'd be made a decision and whether you would remain as a governor of the Federal Reserve.
• 19:08
  [SPEAKER_15]: And if so, would you tell us what it is?
• 19:10
  [SPEAKER_15]: And if not, when might we anticipate a decision?
• 19:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: No.
• 19:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: And I really, once again, have nothing for you on that today.
• 19:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: That either.
• 19:22
  [SPEAKER_15]: Why would you want to leave it all under the circumstances?
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: Again, I don't want to get into, it's not something I'm, there's a time in place for these questions and but not something I'm going to be getting into today.
• 19:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: Thank you.
• 19:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.
• 19:42
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:44
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.
• 19:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.
• 19:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thank you.
• 19:47
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:52
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:54
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:55
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:57
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:59
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 19:59
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:00
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:01
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:02
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:03
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:04
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:05
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:05
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:07
  [SPEAKER_17]: Thank you.
• 20:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: Thank you.
• 20:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, Claire, as you probably know, you know, we don't comment on the dollar really the administration, especially the Treasury Department, has the job of oversight over the currency and so exchange rates and all that.
• 20:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: We don't comment on that.
• 20:21
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's not our role, so I have nothing for you.
• 20:26
  [SPEAKER_17]: But what you're on the market movements, what do you think behind them is asset managers diversifying, is it?
• 20:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: Yeah, just don't, you know, we don't, we don't talk about the dollar, we don't talk about what moves it around.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's just, it's just not appropriate for us to do so.
• 20:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: Really the treasury department.
• 20:40
  [SPEAKER_16]: It just great has been there that it's there.
• 20:43
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're all there Bailey Wick and we stay off it.
• 20:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: We do monetary policy and some other things, but we don't, we don't comment on the dollar.
• 20:50
  [SPEAKER_16]: Sorry.
• 20:52
  [UNKNOWN]: No.
• 20:54
  [SPEAKER_08]: I chair Cal Neular with Axios, obviously no SEP in this meeting, but in light of the slight firming up of the language around growth and the labor market and the statement should be assumed that the timeline for any further rate cuts is pushed back compared to what people might have thought in December.
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: Well, first of all, if you look at the incoming data since the last meeting, clear improvement in the outlook for growth, do the data have come in and sentiment the debate, book, everything comes in suggesting that this year starts off on a solid footing for growth.
• 21:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: Inflation performed about as expected, and as I mentioned, some of the labor market data came in suggesting, you know, we're evidence of stabilization.
• 21:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's overall a stronger forecast.
• 21:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: It really, if that's your question.
• 21:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'm not sure answer your questions.
• 21:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: But in terms of timing or pacing of any additional easing, so we haven't made what we'd say about this was that after this meeting, after the three recent raid cuts were well positioned to address the risks that we faith on face on both sides of our dual mandate and will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data implications for any implications for the outlook and the balance of risks haven't made any decisions about future meetings.
• 22:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, the economy is growing at a solid pace.
• 22:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: You're on a planet right as we're broadly stable.
• 22:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: And inflation reigns somewhat elevated.
• 22:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we'll be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us.
• 22:29
  [SPEAKER_04]: Steve Lee's been CNBC and sticking with questions.
• 22:31
  [SPEAKER_04]: You might answer, thank you.
• 22:35
  [SPEAKER_04]: You had previously, I believe, described the current policy right thing at the higher end of neutral.
• 22:42
  [SPEAKER_04]: And if you look at the longer run of the SCP in the longer run rate 16 of 19 officials are actually below there on their long run, is the Fed still in a process of bringing it down towards a middle range of neutral.
• 22:56
  [SPEAKER_04]: And what would it take to get there?
• 22:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: So I, the count I did was that four of the 19 were at or above that.
• 23:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: I mean, maybe I missed by one.
• 23:06
  [SPEAKER_16]: And I thought it was four.
• 23:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: And if you look at the deal or survey,
• 23:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: It was 10 out of 58, where we're at or most.
• 23:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: So you're right, it's the higher end of the range.
• 23:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: And what we say is it's within the range of plausible estimates.
• 23:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: This is the higher end of that range.
• 23:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: But it's for some people, I think it's neutral.
• 23:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: I think, and many of my colleagues think it's hard to look at the incoming data and say that policies significantly restrictive at this time.
• 23:34
  [SPEAKER_16]: It may be sort of loosely neutral, or it may be somewhat restrictive.
• 23:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: And you know, it's in the eye of the behavior.
• 23:41
  [SPEAKER_16]: with any precision.
• 23:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, I had to follow up.
• 23:48
  [SPEAKER_04]: I get what you're saying, but some officials have described the fed being in a mode of bringing it down eventually over time.
• 23:57
  [SPEAKER_04]: Are you still in that mode or is this a place to hang out?
• 24:00
  [SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, no.
• 24:01
  [SPEAKER_16]: I would say, if you look at the SEP from December, you most people had additional normalization.
• 24:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: But at the same time, we've done a lot of the process of normalizing, a good piece of it is done with 75 basis points and before that, 100.
• 24:16
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's 175 basis points.
• 24:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: We've cut since we began cutting in September of 2024.
• 24:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: So you've moved now to three point, the Fed funds is running just a little bit of 3.65%
• 24:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: So you've moved a good way and we think we're well positioned here to watch how the economy performs look at the data.
• 24:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: We're not making decisions about future meetings, but we do think we're well positioned after those three cuts to let the data speak to us.
• 24:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: to the community to discuss the possibility of cutting at this meeting or in March.
• 24:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: And how are you all thinking about the conditions that would merit another rate cut?
• 24:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Is there a broad agreement on the committee about what it would take?
• 25:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, there was broad support on the committee for holding today, broad, I would say, including among non-borders.
• 25:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, that's where that was.
• 25:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: Of course, some people didn't want to cut and descended, but committee broadly for holding today.
• 25:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: We're not trying to articulate a, you know, a test for what, for one to next cut or whether to cut at the next meeting, you know, what we're saying is we're well positioned as we make decisions meeting by meeting, looking at the incoming data, evolving out, looking all that.
• 25:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: And, you know, we're in a position where, you know, we're in a position where, you know,
• 25:43
  [SPEAKER_16]: We have to, we still have some tension between employment and inflation, but it's less than it was.
• 25:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: I think the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to risk, I probably both diminished a bit.
• 25:56
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we'll be looking at that.
• 25:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's about how you weigh the risks to the two goals and how big those and quantify them.
• 26:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: And so there are different views on the committee, and we'll find our way forward as the data evolve.
• 26:13
  [SPEAKER_18]: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Edward Lawrence from Fox Business.
• 26:16
  [SPEAKER_18]: Has the effects of tariffs already moved through the economy on prices?
• 26:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: A lot of it has, so basically there are many different estimates, and they're all highly uncertain, but most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs, and that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from
• 26:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: demand and you know that's that's a hard problem this all we we do think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one-time price increase So that most of the overshoot if you if you were to take that out you'd get and you would I mean inflation core PC inflation is running just a bit above two percent
• 26:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: the effects of tariffs on goods and the other good news is if you look away from goods and look at services you do see ongoing disinflation in all the categories of services.
• 27:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: So that's a healthy development.
• 27:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: So that's what's going on.
• 27:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: The expectation is
• 27:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: that we will see the effects of tariffs flowing through goods prices, peaking and then starting to come down, assuming there are no new major tariff increases that are begun.
• 27:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: And that's what we expect to see over the course of the issue.
• 27:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: If we see that, if we see that,
• 27:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: that would be something that tells us that we can we can lose some policy.
• 27:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: Also, if we see something that suggests that the labor market is not stabilizing that in fact it's the downside risk to reemerge or the day to just get worse, we'd have to look at both of those.
• 27:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: We have two sighted mandate.
• 27:48
  [SPEAKER_18]: If I could, if President Trump does pick a new Fed Chairman before May, what does that look like?
• 27:54
  [SPEAKER_18]: How would you work with that person?
• 27:55
  [SPEAKER_18]: And what does that transition period look like?
• 27:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: I don't have anything for you on that.
• 27:59
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, and stats will depend on conversations and things like I can't speculate on.
• 28:09
  [SPEAKER_21]: How are China with rotors?
• 28:10
  [SPEAKER_21]: Thank you for taking our questions.
• 28:12
  [SPEAKER_21]: Given the changes in the statement and all you've said so far is it is it parent describe risks to your to both sides of the band aid as roughly balanced right now and is the next move necessarily now?
• 28:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'd say that.
• 28:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: The upside, again, the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment have diminished, but they still exist.
• 28:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: So there's still some tension between the mandates.
• 28:41
  [SPEAKER_16]: Are they fully in balance, hard to say, hard to say?
• 28:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: And again, we think our policies in a good place.
• 28:50
  [SPEAKER_16]: I've just discussed reasons why we might change our policy.
• 28:56
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we'll just have to see how the data lead us.
• 28:59
  [SPEAKER_21]: I'm wondering, the minute ago you said you felt expectations were consistent with your mandate that two in the 10 year break-evens have moved quite notably in the last couple of weeks, I believe.
• 29:11
  [SPEAKER_21]: Is there any concern on that front?
• 29:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: I mean, the
• 29:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: They recently looked at all of the both survey and market-based short-term inflation expectations have come way down.
• 29:24
  [SPEAKER_16]: They were in a good place at the beginning of last year.
• 29:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: They spiked around liberation day, and that they fully retraced in the last few months.
• 29:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: So that's very comforting.
• 29:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: In the longer term, inflation expectations have remained.
• 29:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: in places that are very consistent with 2% inflation over time.
• 29:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: So expectations have been solid and they reflect, you know, confidence in the return to 2% inflation.
• 29:49
  [SPEAKER_10]: And here.
• 29:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: Apologies if this is a little bit repetitive, but in the past you've said that the reason you cut rates was that the risk to the labor market was greater than the risk to the inflation side is that's still true.
• 30:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, we haven't made, you're right, we saw the labor market weakening, and we acted.
• 30:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: And I think that was the appropriate thing to do.
• 30:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: We will always act to address what we see as the economy moving away from our goals.
• 30:24
  [SPEAKER_16]: Risks to both of the variables are a little less.
• 30:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: I think the upside risk to inflation again a little bit less, and the downside risk to employment, a little less.
• 30:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: I just would say that I'm not making a judgment about how, you know.
• 30:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: one of them is more at risk than the other just that the risks both to both of them have have diminished.
• 30:44
  [SPEAKER_07]: Okay, thanks.
• 30:46
  [SPEAKER_07]: BIS wrote a paper last summer which concluded that global investors were hedging their dollar exposures in ways that previously they they hadn't because of policy uncertainty to you agree with BIS.
• 30:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: We really don't see much at all about that whole that whole story.
• 31:02
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're just not a lot of data that suggests that there's
• 31:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: Thanks.
• 31:11
  [SPEAKER_14]: Honest wants in with the New York Times.
• 31:13
  [SPEAKER_14]: Can you talk more about what you would need to see in the labor market to conclude its time to resume easing?
• 31:18
  [SPEAKER_14]: Do you need to see further deterioration in the labor market or would it be enough for inflation to solve it?
• 31:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: We'll always be looking at both things.
• 31:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: There could be combinations in infinite numbers or combinations that would cause us to want to move.
• 31:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: Certainly a weakening labor market would be an argument for loosening.
• 31:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: But what's happening with inflation if inflation were at the same time getting worse, you know, you just have a very difficult situation there.
• 31:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we'll be looking at both clearly a weakening labor market calls for cutting a stronger labor market says that the rates are in a good place.
• 31:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: We'll have to be making similar judgments too on inflation though.
• 31:55
  [SPEAKER_14]: And if inflation does pick back up in the labor market doesn't show further signs of deterioration, is there a chance that you could raise rates rather than simply remaining on hold?
• 32:04
  [SPEAKER_14]: What would you need to see?
• 32:05
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, we don't think we don't take things off the table, but it isn't anybody's base case right now.
• 32:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: Anybody's base case that the next move will be a rate hike, but you know, ultimately we'll do what we think is the right thing, that's not where people's expectations are right now.
• 32:26
  [SPEAKER_19]: with Politico.
• 32:28
  [SPEAKER_19]: I wanted to ask you've talked in the past about concerns about the US fiscal trajectory and we've seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently in part due to concerns over there at their fiscal and long-term economic outlook.
• 32:41
  [SPEAKER_19]: So do you worry that the US could at some point find itself in a similar situation to Japan whether for fiscal or demographic reasons?
• 32:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, over time, you've seen that US rates have remained.
• 32:53
  [SPEAKER_16]: pretty, they haven't moved a lot really for a while, but they haven't moved a lot because of what's been happening in Japan.
• 33:00
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's more of an over time thing.
• 33:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: The U.S. federal budget deficit is, you know, uncontroversially on an unsustainable path.
• 33:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: The level of debt is not unsustainable.
• 33:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's very much sustainable, but the path is unsustainable.
• 33:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: And as soon as we work on it, the better.
• 33:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: But
• 33:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, right now we're running a very large deficit at essentially full employment and so the fiscal picture needs to be addressed and it's not really being addressed.
• 33:28
  [SPEAKER_16]: So at that's important.
• 33:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'm not in anyway connecting it to some sort of near term market event.
• 33:34
  [SPEAKER_16]: But ultimately, it's something we'll have to deal with and that, you know, in the end, in the end game, that's where you wind up is in some kind of a difficult thing.
• 33:43
  [SPEAKER_16]: But that's that's not where we are.
• 33:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's not what Japan is either.
• 33:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: But certainly not where we are right now.
• 33:48
  [SPEAKER_19]: Does it reduce the effective your rate cuts that longer term rates have overall not really but that much?
• 33:53
  [SPEAKER_16]: I wouldn't say that, you know, the thing is technically higher longer term rates means less accommodative financial conditions, but remember, many, many things move longer term rates.
• 33:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's not, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know, you know
• 34:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: And it's not mostly what happens on the short end.
• 34:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: There can be effects of longer-term rates from our moving our policy around.
• 34:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: But it's much more assessment of the fiscal path and fiscal policies and risks and things like that than move the 10 year round.
• 34:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: You can look back and find periods where we've been very actively moving the policy rate.
• 34:31
  [SPEAKER_16]: And over the course of a year, I know over the course of that year that 10 years exactly where it started.
• 34:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's not, there's not a tight link between, you know, 10 year rates and the overnight rent.
• 34:47
  [SPEAKER_13]: Thanks so much, Elizabeth Shalsy, with ABC News, a Republican senator, Tom Tillis, who sits on the Senate Bank in committee, said he will block any Fed nominee, including the chair, until this investigation into you is resolved.
• 34:58
  [SPEAKER_13]: Do you support this move by the Senator and what conversations have you had with the Senator?
• 35:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: I've got nothing for you on that.
• 35:05
  [SPEAKER_13]: More broadly, what would happen to American households if the federal reserve loses its ability to operate independent from politics?
• 35:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: So really, the point of independence is not to protect policymakers or anything like that.
• 35:21
  [SPEAKER_16]: It just is that every advanced economy democracy in the world has come around to this common practice.
• 35:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's just an institutional arrangement that is served the people well.
• 35:34
  [SPEAKER_16]: And that is to have a separation between
• 35:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: to not have direct elected official control over the setting of monetary policy.
• 35:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: And the reason is that monetary policy can be used through an election cycle to affect the economy in a way that will be politically worthwhile.
• 35:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: So this isn't talking about the U.S. context.
• 35:54
  [SPEAKER_16]: This is every advanced economy democracy of any size.
• 35:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's a good practice.
• 36:00
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's pretty much everywhere among countries that look at all like the United States.
• 36:06
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's personal will be hard to restore the credibility of the institution.
• 36:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: If people lose their faith that we're making decisions, you know, only on the basis of our assessment of what's best for everyone, for the wide public rather than trying to benefit one group or another.
• 36:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: If you lose that, it's going to be hard to retain it.
• 36:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we haven't lost it, I don't believe we will.
• 36:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: I certainly hope we won't, but it's very important.
• 36:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: And the reason it's important is that it's enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public well.
• 36:41
  [SPEAKER_13]: You're confident it can maintain that independence at this point.
• 36:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: Yes.
• 36:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: I mean, I'm strongly committed to that, and so are my colleagues.
• 36:54
  [SPEAKER_20]: part you're hoping the economist on that sort of stabilization of the labor market question, how much do you see the weekling we saw the past six months a year as the kind of data mirage around immigration and the government shutdown so on that's now resolved or how much we see the kind of real underlying farming up in the state of the labor market you think.
• 37:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: Well, part of it is to your point, part of it just is that labor supply, growth in labor supply has come to essentially a halt from a fairly fast clip of growth over the last couple of years, driven by immigration, and then the halt being driven by a very sudden stop and immigration.
• 37:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: many outcomes were possible with that, you know, supply came way down, it turns out that demand for labor also came down a very similar amount, maybe just a little bit more, which is why the unemployment rate has gone up.
• 37:48
  [SPEAKER_16]: So I don't know whether that's a coincidence or not, but that's that's what's happened with with that part.
• 37:53
  [SPEAKER_16]: But if you look at other, um, uh,
• 37:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: things like, for example, just to pick a couple, the conference boards measure of job availability that came out, I don't know, was it yesterday or today, but you know, it shows sort of sort of a showing that workers feel like job availability is, it's a very low reading, just one reading, but it's an indication of softening.
• 38:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: People, part-time for economic reasons, which is a category within the broader U-6 category, measure has moved up significantly.
• 38:26
  [SPEAKER_16]: So there are lots of, I could go on and on.
• 38:28
  [SPEAKER_16]: There are lots of little places that suggest that the labor market has softened, but right, part of payroll job softening is that both the supply and demand for labor has come down, growth in those two have come down.
• 38:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: So that makes it a difficult time to read the labor market.
• 38:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, imagine they both came down a lot to the point where there is no job growth.
• 38:53
  [SPEAKER_16]: Is that full employment?
• 38:54
  [SPEAKER_16]: In a sense, it is.
• 38:55
  [SPEAKER_16]: If demand and supply are in balance, you know, that you could say that's full employment.
• 39:01
  [SPEAKER_16]: At the same time, is it, do we really feel like that's a maximum employment economy?
• 39:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, it's a challenging, it's very challenging and quite unusual situation.
• 39:11
  [SPEAKER_20]: Thanks, and then one more on the growth and the kind of strong growth outlook, QA, or strength growth outlook, QA, and how much of that is the fiscal stimulus we're seeing from the beautiful Bell of the Tax Cuts and all that.
• 39:22
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, you're seeing it already, you don't have much of the fiscal, I think the outlook you're right, it's financial conditions, and it's fiscal policy for 26.
• 39:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: But you've got strong consumption that's been happening before.
• 39:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: financial conditions have been supported, but before the fiscal effects really are shown.
• 39:43
  [SPEAKER_16]: So essentially the economy has once again surprised us with its strengths, not for the first time.
• 39:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, consumer spending, although it's, you know, it's uneven across income categories, but consumer spending overall numbers are good.
• 39:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we're benefiting from the, you know, from the AI build out of data centers.
• 40:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: That's another thing we're benefiting from.
• 40:06
  [SPEAKER_16]: But you kind of know, overall the growth is growth is, is on a solid footing.
• 40:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: It looks like and, and it's not just those things, it's, it's just the consumers.
• 40:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: The consumer is filling out, you know, surveys that sound really negative and then spending.
• 40:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: So there's been a disconnect for some time between downbeat surveys and, you know, reasonably good spending data.
• 40:31
  [SPEAKER_11]: Thanks, Chair Powell, Christine Romans, from NBC News.
• 40:33
  [SPEAKER_11]: You talked about how consumer spending is uneven.
• 40:36
  [SPEAKER_11]: The President calls inflation, defeated, and solved the FOMC says it's somewhat elevated inflation.
• 40:43
  [SPEAKER_11]: But you talked about those customer surveys, or those consumer sentiment surveys, and public opinion.
• 40:48
  [SPEAKER_11]: polls that show that most families say the cost of living is still issue number one.
• 40:53
  [SPEAKER_11]: What is the conversation around the table with your colleagues about how wealthier consumers seem to be driving so much of the economy and why so many families still feel like they just can't make ends meet after five years of rising prices.
• 41:09
  [SPEAKER_11]: What is that discussion like?
• 41:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, a couple of things, there's something to it in that we know that higher-income households that tend to own real estate and tend to own stocks, stocks, securities, and those assets have been going up in value and increases in wealth to support spending over time.
• 41:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, and that's clearly a part of the story.
• 41:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: We also know that for some time now, for a year or more, we've been hearing from
• 41:40
  [SPEAKER_16]: It retellers, for example, that serve lower-income customers, whether it be food or the big box stores, right now.
• 41:47
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're saying the same thing, which is our consumers are looking to economists.
• 41:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're trading down from brands and they're buying less and it's changing their buying habits in that kind of thing.
• 41:59
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we're seeing that, and that is a reality of what we're seeing.
• 42:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: They're still consuming, but they're feeling it in a different way.
• 42:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: I would say more broadly on affordability, we have a vast network through the reserve banks and also through the Board of Governors, where we talk to small and large businesses and households.
• 42:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we do hear a lot about affordability and we take that very seriously and we take it to heart because our job is one of our jobs is price stability and so the best thing we can do for
• 42:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: is to keep inflation under control.
• 42:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: And you know, frankly, to finish the job of getting inflation back down to 2%.
• 42:41
  [SPEAKER_11]: You mentioned the AI build out as being positive for economic growth this year.
• 42:45
  [SPEAKER_11]: I wonder as you look at the weakest year last year for job creation of a non-recession year since like 2003.
• 42:50
  [SPEAKER_11]: Are you concerned about AI maybe supplanting more entry-level work and entry-level jobs and how does that play into your what you're watching about the labor market?
• 43:01
  [SPEAKER_16]: you know, so everyone of course is watching AI and the deployment and you know trying to understand exactly what's happening.
• 43:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: And there's a wide range of possibilities.
• 43:12
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's hard to say.
• 43:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: We're, and of course anyone who uses it is amazed at what it can accomplish, right?
• 43:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: every technological way will eliminate some jobs and create other jobs.
• 43:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: And it's always been the case if you look back wave after wave after wave.
• 43:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: There will be some disruption but ultimately technology increases productivity which is the basis for rising wages.
• 43:36
  [SPEAKER_16]: And it may not all happen immediately but over time it's what enables incomes to rise over time is rising productivity.
• 43:50
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we don't know, and we may, in any case, see in the short term jobs that are being eliminated by the capabilities of AI, we may see that we just don't know what the overall effect is going to be.
• 44:02
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, how to think about it in terms of macroeconomic terms, it's very hard, we can look at the aggregate data, we can analyze, for example, that there is some connection
• 44:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: And AI, but it's not that the main or only driver, you hear large companies, though, saying many of them, saying that they either won't be hiring for some time, whether they're hiring less or the drilling people often, they tend to refer to AI when they do that.
• 44:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we're all watching and learning and it could certainly have pretty significant effects on the economy, the workforce and our society.
• 44:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: We don't really have the tools to address the concerns that may arise, but we have a lot of people who focus on analyzing it and try to understand what the macroeconomic implications are, which is our job.
• 45:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, Chair Powell.
• 45:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Be from AFP News Agency.
• 45:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned earlier that on inflation, the broad expectation was for one time price increase and then for inflation to come down and I was wondering, is your expectation still for inflation to start cooling in the second half of 2026 and if you could elaborate how far we are from target currently, thank you.
• 45:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: So how far away are from target is, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we had 3%, 3.0% core PCE inflation over the 12 months ending in December, and that's pretty much what we had the year before.
• 45:39
  [SPEAKER_16]: So on net no progress, but the story behind that is modestly positive in that most of the overshoot was in good prices, which we think is related to tariffs, and ultimately we think those will not result in inflation as opposed to a one-time price increase.
• 45:56
  [SPEAKER_16]: That's where it is.
• 45:58
  [SPEAKER_16]: In terms of a few asked them, so no one thinks they will, you know, ex-ante understand really clearly precisely when this will happen.
• 46:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: But there's an expectation that sometimes in the middle quarters of the year we'll see
• 46:16
  [SPEAKER_16]: So what we do is when a tariff is put in place, we track the effect of those tariffs over a 6, 7, 8, 9 month period and you can see and then you can see we'll forward that tariff.
• 46:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: how long it takes to reach a place where it's affected the price level, and that's it.
• 46:37
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we're getting better at that, and our estimate is that it will be sometime in the middle of the year, but I wouldn't look for great precision in that.
• 46:44
  [SPEAKER_16]: But we'll be able to see whether things are moving in that direction.
• 46:47
  [SPEAKER_16]: I think we'll be able to see.
• 46:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: I want to look out for you.
• 46:57
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 46:59
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:02
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:03
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:05
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:07
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:09
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:10
  [SPEAKER_22]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:20
  [SPEAKER_16]: I want to look out for you.
• 47:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: energy oil.
• 47:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: And so far we haven't, you know, with all for all the turmoil we really oil prices have come down as you know.
• 47:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: And so we don't really see much.
• 47:33
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, longer than that, it's trade and, you know, the trade, the economy, our economy has pulled through pretty well.
• 47:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: You'd have to say, given the various significant changes in trade policy.
• 47:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: US economy has pushed right through.
• 47:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: Partly that is that the way that what was implemented was significantly less than what was announced at the beginning, in addition,
• 47:57
  [SPEAKER_16]: other countries didn't retaliate and in addition, a good part of it hasn't been passed through a consumer share.
• 48:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's being taken by companies that stand between the consumer and the and the exporter.
• 48:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: So that's where that is.
• 48:17
  [SPEAKER_09]: Thank you to your panel, Jennifer Sean Berger with Yahoo Finance.
• 48:20
  [SPEAKER_09]: But was there quarter GDP growing at 4.4% and the fourth quarter expected to have a five-handle on it as to what the Atlanta Fed is predicting?
• 48:29
  [SPEAKER_09]: At a time when you had a government shutdown, we thought that was going to shave off some growth.
• 48:33
  [SPEAKER_09]: You've also got the fiscal tailwinds.
• 48:35
  [SPEAKER_09]: You've talked about big tax refunds coming, potential tariff dividend.
• 48:40
  [SPEAKER_09]: How could you cut rates and not spur inflation in that environment?
• 48:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: Well, we didn't kind of rates today, but, you know, it depends on how fast potential output is growing.
• 48:54
  [SPEAKER_16]: Right.
• 48:54
  [SPEAKER_16]: I'm just asked in principle, I'm not, you know, I'm not saying this is what's happening, but, you know, there's growth and there's how fast the potential is growing and at a time of.
• 49:05
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, high productivity growth, potential output is rising.
• 49:08
  [SPEAKER_16]: So really matters, whether potential output is growing as fast as actual output.
• 49:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: And it would matter over time.
• 49:16
  [SPEAKER_16]: The numbers you cite were for quarters.
• 49:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: And quarterly GDP is, you need to look at 12 months, because quarterly GDP can be very lumpy.
• 49:24
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, GDP was negative in the first quarter last year.
• 49:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: So the overall over the year, the numbers were nothing like that.
• 49:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: It was more in the mid-tos for the year.
• 49:33
  [SPEAKER_09]: And how do you explain the divide right now between strong economic growth and the job market?
• 49:40
  [SPEAKER_09]: Is it productivity that's filling the gap?
• 49:42
  [SPEAKER_09]: Is productivity being driven by AI at this point?
• 49:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we, there has been a divide of solid growth, but we look like a weakening labor market.
• 49:55
  [SPEAKER_16]: And that can be explained by rising productivity.
• 50:00
  [SPEAKER_16]: But I would say we do see signs of certainly of the unemployment rate stabilizing.
• 50:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it may be we're seeing the beginning of the resolution of those two things.
• 50:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: Also, as you probably know, the law is that when GDP and the labor market get into an argument in the end,
• 50:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: Labor market is more, the labor market data is more reliable.
• 50:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: GDP data is just very hard to collect and understand.
• 50:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: But nonetheless, I think we may be seeing that tension resolving a little bit too soon to say with any confidence.
• 50:42
  [SPEAKER_23]: from Eddie, you can see it then.
• 50:43
  [SPEAKER_23]: In Chirpau, after today you have two meetings left as Fed share.
• 50:49
  [SPEAKER_23]: You've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed share served under multiple Presidents.
• 50:54
  [SPEAKER_23]: I'm wondering what advice you have for whoever your successor might be.
• 51:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: Lastly, let's say a couple of things.
• 51:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: Let's go one guy here.
• 51:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: You know, stay out of elected politics.
• 51:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: Don't get pulled into elected politics.
• 51:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: Don't do it.
• 51:15
  [SPEAKER_16]: And that's another thing.
• 51:16
  [SPEAKER_16]: Well, another is,
• 51:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: the you know our window into democratic accountability is Congress and it's not a passive burden in for us to go to Congress and talk to people.
• 51:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's an affirmative regular obligation.
• 51:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: If you want democratic legitimacy, you earn it by your interactions with the are elected overseers and so it's something you need to work hard at it and I have worked hard at it.
• 51:46
  [SPEAKER_16]: So the last thing is it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways.
• 51:54
  [SPEAKER_16]: I will tell whoever it is, you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with, and when you meet Fed staff, and not everybody's perfect, but there isn't a better cadre of professionals more dedicated to the public well-being than work at the Fed.
• 52:15
  [SPEAKER_23]: things for that answer.
• 52:15
  [SPEAKER_23]: If I may follow up, as I'm sure you've noticed gold and silver prices have experienced historic gains of late and I'm wondering how much attention if any you pay to those moves and what message you may take from these significant pricing increases we've seen for precious metals.
• 52:34
  [SPEAKER_16]: Don't take much message macroeconomically.
• 52:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: The argument can be made, it's, you know, with it we're losing credibility or something.
• 52:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's simply not the case.
• 52:43
  [SPEAKER_16]: If you look, if you look at where inflation expectations are, our credibility is where it needs to be.
• 52:48
  [SPEAKER_16]: So we look at those things.
• 52:49
  [SPEAKER_16]: We don't get spun up over particular asset price changes or we do, we do march or them, of course.
• 52:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: Nicole, for the last question.
• 53:02
  [UNKNOWN]: Wow.
• 53:03
  [SPEAKER_10]: Hi, Nicole, good kind of barrens.
• 53:05
  [SPEAKER_10]: Some prominent critics have charged that the feds economic models are somewhat backward-looking, but should be more forward-looking, incorporating things like productivity increases from AI.
• 53:17
  [SPEAKER_10]: How do you incorporate current and future developments into your analysis and decision-making and do have an answer to those critics?
• 53:25
  [SPEAKER_16]: Yeah, so
• 53:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: By and large those criticisms, somebody on the inside they just don't make sense and I'll tell you why.
• 53:35
  [SPEAKER_16]: every FOMC participant writes down a forecast every quarter, write the summary of economic projections, and that's the basis for how we think about the economy.
• 53:45
  [SPEAKER_16]: So, the other thing is what any economic model can do, is it can grind up all the data for the last number of years, 50 years, let's say, and it can identify what are the relationships between variables, A, B, C, D, and all that kind of thing.
• 54:03
  [SPEAKER_16]: And it can tell you if you change one of those variables, this is what should happen in the macro economy.
• 54:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: That's just the way it works.
• 54:10
  [SPEAKER_16]: However, the structure of the macro economy is constantly changing.
• 54:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: For example, we hadn't had a pandemic in 100 years.
• 54:17
  [SPEAKER_16]: It wasn't in the model.
• 54:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we knew it from the very beginning.
• 54:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: and it was not in the model, a trade war of this scope.
• 54:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: We'd never had that in a hundred years.
• 54:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: And so there's great uncertainty at different points.
• 54:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: Another thing I'll say is, when it comes to,
• 54:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: you know technological developments that raise potential output, some kind of technological renovation, you know revolution like like happened in the 90s here and like maybe happening out with AI.
• 54:50
  [SPEAKER_16]: We're all over that and you know we everyone studies those periods and you know we're very clear-eyed about the possibility that this higher productivity may persist and also that it may not, you know we we're not no one's sitting here
• 55:04
  [SPEAKER_16]: unaware of the possibility of higher productivity.
• 55:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: We've been talking about it for three years.
• 55:09
  [SPEAKER_16]: It long predates the current situation.
• 55:11
  [SPEAKER_16]: It's been going on for five or six years.
• 55:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: We've had productivity higher.
• 55:14
  [SPEAKER_16]: We've been talking about it that whole time.
• 55:16
  [SPEAKER_16]: So it's very much on our minds.
• 55:18
  [SPEAKER_16]: And we are well aware that higher productivity means higher potential output, and it changes the way you think about potentially inflation growth, labor market, and all those things.
• 55:29
  [SPEAKER_16]: That's all in our
• 55:30
  [SPEAKER_16]: I mean, if it's a question you're using better models, bring them on, you know, where are they will take them, but I think, you know, we certainly are in contact with anybody who does economic modeling and and we're always looking to do better at that, but that's that's how I think about that.
• 55:45
  [SPEAKER_10]: And just a quick follow-up, we've been talking a lot about tariffs and passing through and we've been talking a lot about them for the past few months.
• 55:53
  [SPEAKER_10]: You know, the trade landscape is still in a constant state of flux announcements, threats and negotiations are all frequently changing.
• 56:01
  [SPEAKER_10]: So I'm wondering how you actually track these, how what data or channels are most critical to follow this in real time.
• 56:08
  [SPEAKER_20]: Pray?
• 56:09
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, the impact of tariffs and how they're changing.
• 56:13
  [SPEAKER_16]: Yeah, I think our staff has done a really nice job on that and they've kind of put it together in real time.
• 56:19
  [SPEAKER_16]: So as I mentioned, a tariff gets put in place.
• 56:21
  [SPEAKER_16]: You can pretty much track its effects.
• 56:23
  [SPEAKER_16]: A lot of fun pricing.
• 56:24
  [SPEAKER_16]: Walk for Brian and every thanks.
• 56:27
  [SPEAKER_16]: And so you build a big W for the tariff, all of the tariffs at the beginning.
• 56:32
  [SPEAKER_16]: It was very much the forecast.
• 56:34
  [SPEAKER_16]: Now it's every cycle that goes by.
• 56:38
  [SPEAKER_16]: It becomes more tariff.
• 56:42
  [SPEAKER_16]: Our forecasts were not ever a doubt off what changed was, as I think I said earlier, what changed was what was implemented was smaller than what was announced.
• 56:52
  [SPEAKER_16]: In addition, we didn't see retaliation internationally, and I think people did generally expect that because we saw that in the past, and that really mattered too.
• 57:00
  [SPEAKER_16]: And then the other thing is that past through didn't know how fast that was going to be to consumers, didn't know how much
• 57:07
  [SPEAKER_16]: How much it companies in the middle would take and how much the consumer would take and it turns out it's a lot of companies in the middle Who by the way are pretty strongly committed to passing the rest of it through which is one of the reasons why we need to keep our eye our inflation and not declare victory prematurely We're done.
• 57:28
  [SPEAKER_16]: Okay, thank you very much
• 57:33
  [SPEAKER_06]: What a swell.
• 57:34
  [SPEAKER_06]: I'll tell you.
• 57:35
  [SPEAKER_06]: That was like, uh, I'm a giant fan watching Tyre catch that bone.
• 57:41
  [SPEAKER_06]: It's helmet with last question and then they put a bonus question in to get us over the top.
• 57:48
  [SPEAKER_06]: What a sweat.
• 57:48
  [SPEAKER_06]: That was, uh, what a surprise to be alive there.
• 57:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, congrats to all the tariff better.
• 57:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: I got absolutely washed again.
• 57:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: I, I, I stink at this.
• 57:59
  [SPEAKER_06]: I think it's mentioned I will start the trash they kind of stink they're tough I know but I just I thought I had a beat.
• 58:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: I thought I had it.
• 58:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: No, that's not true I just did this one for fun
• 58:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: The first time I started doing it, I'm not going to lie.
• 58:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: I was like, I'm going to crush this and then I think at it.
• 58:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: I will say, I didn't mention this.
• 58:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: The only thing I saving grace was as soon as they started asking the the subpoena question he wouldn't, like he didn't say subpoena.
• 58:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: I thought that was a fair bet.
• 58:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'd take that bet again.
• 58:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: But as soon as he just was like, I'm not talking about that.
• 58:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm not talking about that.
• 58:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: I went and hit a no.
• 58:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: So there's a mention for president and the no was that like 80%.
• 58:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I kind of hammered that with a little number, felt like a free 20% there because it just felt like he was never going to mention or say the president or Trump just kind of divert.
• 58:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: So got a little bit back on it, but a losing effort for me.
• 58:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's how gambling works.
• 58:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's how the truth works.
• 58:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Don't let anybody tell you that there's some magical
• 59:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then Brian with a dub, congratulations to Brian.
• 59:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: Uh, thanks, man.
• 59:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's amazing to come back to you.
• 59:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's never, it's never, it's ever, it's even over to the opposite of what you think.
• 59:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, bro, of course, of course.
• 59:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: But that's like, it's when you're doing the mentioned markets, it's like you're going for, uh, you know, five, six acts or something.
• 59:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's like the probabilities are low that I'm taking, but if one hits, like I only needed one to hit, and I would have been in the green, even though it didn't seem to be that way.
• 59:31
  [SPEAKER_06]: I was slapping good afternoon.
• 59:34
  [SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, well that's it.
• 59:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I won a couple bucks on the good afternoon.
• 59:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: But I was slacking bright on the side.
• 59:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know anybody that tuned in the last couple of times we did this.
• 59:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: I took beige book.
• 59:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: and he didn't say it and then of course I don't take beige book, I don't take AI and it just just vomit out of his mouth multiple times which you hate to say well you don't hate to see it.
• 1:00:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Congratulations all the beige bookbedders and congratulations to the tariff bedders.
• 1:00:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Quick recap.
• 1:00:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: There wasn't really much there.
• 1:00:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think the most interesting quote I got out of it was
• 1:00:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: standing up for, you know, not being political and not being a part of the administration, but not being Democrat or Republican, just saying, hey, this is a group of people that have differentiating opinions, but you're not going to have a more professional group and we're independent from the politics of it.
• 1:00:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: Really, that's what I think he wants his messaging to be and his legacy to be.
• 1:00:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: Um, it gets it, you know, you kind of come back in and bring up the polymarket of who's going to be the next Fed president is again, the president doesn't control the entire board.
• 1:00:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's why they're a voting board right.
• 1:00:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, um, a little bit of change there during the, uh,
• 1:01:01
  [SPEAKER_06]: What what what do you do I guess I'll give you my thoughts I kind of like like I like how he he's pretty stoked he keeps himself together pretty nicely I mean he gets beaten down pretty bad by the president in the world But he seems like a pretty decent guy, right?
• 1:01:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, totally agree.
• 1:01:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think the Monday morning quarterback of how they handled COVID, I think history shows that they didn't necessarily do the right thing, but they overreacted in a way to at least try and help.
• 1:01:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: It was a belief of we think we're doing the right thing.
• 1:01:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're going to help this economy because we don't want it to fall apart and COVID, you know, looking back on it was not, I mean, again, that's a politically charged statement, I guess these days.
• 1:01:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: But hey, we're on for the most part, everybody's fine and the world's still spinning.
• 1:01:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: So it's like, from a from a business and an economy thing, the world didn't stop.
• 1:01:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: At one point, the airports are shutting down, nobody's flying.
• 1:01:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that was a huge panic.
• 1:01:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: So they injected a ton of liquidity.
• 1:02:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I think it is a tough thing because, you know, they're trying to take a balance of,
• 1:02:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: you know this economy and there's already so much liquidity out there um and prices have risen so much especially when you look at like asset prices um from Bitcoin to the stock market from the lows and then also have the housing market which obviously is tough uh but i think he's uh uh yeah he's stoic uh but you see he also seems like a guy like you know you might want to light up a stoic of a parent down down in the like a man cave he seems like a man cave guy to me
• 1:02:36
  [SPEAKER_06]: I love to get a couple beers in power and just ask him about like just get the truth serum in them and just ask him about his feelings on Trump and just get in the nitty gritty because you know he wants to just like scream at the rooftops like how he's getting treated and how he how he feels but I mean that's the next Fed the next Fed is good next Fed president is going to is going to be a little bit closer to Trump and what Trump wants
• 1:03:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, if we have it up on year.
• 1:03:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I've never, Kevin Hass, it was like a true Trump puppet.
• 1:03:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: If you will, and I think the market did not like the idea of him being the Fed president just because he was that close to Trump.
• 1:03:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I've never heard, I've never heard while is, I believe is, I think Christopher Waller is Waller Fed.
• 1:03:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think he is in the Fed.
• 1:03:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: He's been a member of the Federal Reserve since 2020.
• 1:03:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: So he's a current Fed governor.
• 1:03:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: I've never heard him necessarily speak.
• 1:03:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: I've heard his written opinions.
• 1:03:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: I've never heard war speak.
• 1:03:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: Rick Reader.
• 1:03:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: I've heard speak a lot.
• 1:03:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: He's very stoic as well.
• 1:03:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: Very confident, very stoic.
• 1:03:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: We played that clip the other day.
• 1:03:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, again, it's what I said kind of at the end of the year episode was going to be an interesting new story to follow.
• 1:04:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's ever changing and it's super fun to do the mention markets and yeah, I didn't even know I took the L. I do enjoy it to be honest.
• 1:04:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's a fun sweat.
• 1:04:13
  [SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, especially when we knew kind of this this meeting, there's been a couple in the past that we've done that we're just so clearly like we need a cut because it's bacon or we we're like hanging on every word.
• 1:04:23
  [SPEAKER_06]: I think the the Pauli market odds of no change was like 99% or something today so we got a new.
• 1:04:32
  [SPEAKER_06]: What it was going to be so you kind of have to fire up the mention market's a little bit to make it a little bit more entertaining.
• 1:04:38
  [SPEAKER_06]: which they certainly do but it was as expected as ever to as advertised today's FOMC meeting and we only got a couple more rounds of power leading the ship here.
• 1:04:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and then a fresh take on the prediction of the prediction markets.
• 1:04:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: We'll get a fresh, sorry, the mentioned market's a fresh take.
• 1:05:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Like, you kind of have a vibe of what you think, pal might or might not stay and you can kind of get a, you know, a new feel for the the next Fed president for his press conferences.
• 1:05:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: It'll be fun.
• 1:05:11
  [SPEAKER_06]: That's, believe I don't go through Google images to see what a big, rick's favorite color tie is because a pile stuck with purple.
• 1:05:21
  [SPEAKER_06]: And I don't think he's going to go with purple, you know, if that was pile's color.
• 1:05:25
  [SPEAKER_06]: So we'll have to see what's happening there.
• 1:05:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: I think you changed it up.
• 1:05:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: You could just pull up coin market capital wrap it up with this Yeah, the market's not early moving pretty much hyper liquid.
• 1:05:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Have a nice little bump today.
• 1:05:39
  [SPEAKER_06]: I Mean hyper liquid you can buy you can get exposure to gold silver and copper on it So of course hyper liquid is is going kind of wild.
• 1:05:50
  [SPEAKER_06]: I think it's up like 50% on the week
• 1:05:52
  [SPEAKER_06]: I like hyperliquid as a platform quite a bit.
• 1:05:56
  [SPEAKER_06]: In full disclosure for everyone, I have exposure.
• 1:05:58
  [SPEAKER_06]: I'm staking it.
• 1:06:01
  [SPEAKER_06]: I think hyperliquid still has a path to be very successful this year.
• 1:06:05
  [SPEAKER_06]: But we've seen we've seen it really outperform everything else right now.
• 1:06:09
  [SPEAKER_06]: I personally think it has a lot to do with because you can get exposure to precious metals because they've tokenized equities on their platform.
• 1:06:16
  [SPEAKER_06]: But they're they're platform.
• 1:06:17
  [SPEAKER_06]: I'm not sure if you've ever been on there.
• 1:06:19
  [SPEAKER_06]: It's a little clunky to use.
• 1:06:21
  [SPEAKER_06]: It's not a smooth experience of my opinion.
• 1:06:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: There you go.
• 1:06:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's why you tune in the crypto 101 a little alpha from Brian and hyper liquid.
• 1:06:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: I just went through S&P Nasdaq, Russell 2000, pretty much the same as crypto pretty unchanged today.
• 1:06:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then the 10 year, a little bit of a bump and that that has risen over the last month, actually, which is interesting because that's exactly the opposite of what Trump wants because the 10 year ties the tightest to mortgage rates.
• 1:06:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, um, I guess that's it, guys.
• 1:06:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: We really appreciate it.
• 1:06:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: We had a, you know, 100 people stopped by Fad.
• 1:06:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: That says he always wants a strong, stoic, fed president.
• 1:07:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: How do we determine, help me determine the gatorade color for the Super Bowl?
• 1:07:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: Oh, fits just jumped in.
• 1:07:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hey, fits.
• 1:07:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: We haven't seen fits in a while.
• 1:07:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: Fads.
• 1:07:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: The, um, let's see.
• 1:07:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: Fad wants the gatorade color for the, for the Super Bowl.
• 1:07:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
• 1:07:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's hard.
• 1:07:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: I want to do a little bit more research, honestly.
• 1:07:22
  [SPEAKER_06]: I don't know, I'm from the type of dinner right now.
• 1:07:26
  [SPEAKER_06]: Let's see what the odds are real quick before we go.
• 1:07:29
  [SPEAKER_06]: Because that's always a fun one, right?
• 1:07:31
  [SPEAKER_06]: And I just tell you this, we need an insider on the equipment managers side.
• 1:07:36
  [SPEAKER_06]: And it is, it is absolutely an open, and there's no overwhelming color here.
• 1:07:44
  [SPEAKER_06]: Green, yellow, blue orange, you're pretty much getting anything you want right here to pretty good price.
• 1:07:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think do we ever see clear do we see what I was going to say clear I was going to say clear That's what I was feeling like clear off the jump
• 1:08:05
  [SPEAKER_06]: I mean, do you think they have, do you think they have, I need, I need to talk to somebody.
• 1:08:11
  [SPEAKER_06]: I need to call up the draft King's people and from back in the days and see, do you think these NFL teams, they go with one specific color, or they have different basins of different colors.
• 1:08:22
  [SPEAKER_06]: Like, you know, reds down there, greens down there, just because you white green, or you like, you, you like reds, a lot of guys on the team.
• 1:08:29
  [SPEAKER_06]: And then it's just
• 1:08:35
  [SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, I think you're a college athlete, how did you do it at the Delaware Blue?
• 1:08:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: And, well, it was your top tier, your top tier players had a dedicated bottle for them.
• 1:08:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: So they got whatever they wanted for your top, your starting quarterback and your top tier players.
• 1:08:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then, if you ever see the people run out into the field, they usually have majority water.
• 1:08:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: And sometimes somebody will run like, because they don't.
• 1:09:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: the other thing is you don't want the hogs and the trenches get a little sweet tooth and just suckin suckin down a gallon like you don't suckin down a gallon of uh it's not not a gallon of gatoried and then they're going to get a tummy ache so you got to be careful so usually what it was is the carry case was all water and then you had one dedicated gatoried person who would give you a squirt of gatoried but they would never let you hold
• 1:09:32
  [SPEAKER_06]: This is the alpha we needed.
• 1:09:34
  [SPEAKER_06]: This is an, I never, I never thought of that.
• 1:09:37
  [SPEAKER_06]: This is exactly why Tivo is the goat, right here.
• 1:09:40
  [SPEAKER_06]: That's exactly what we needed.
• 1:09:43
  [SPEAKER_06]: Block me in for clear.
• 1:09:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: I might go clear.
• 1:09:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, we're gonna, I'm gonna go clear too, because I think it's Santa Clara, it's not gonna be hot, it's not gonna be too hot, uh, yeah it feels like a clear Super Bowl, so we'll lock that in that, uh, really appreciate everybody tuning in, let us know if you like these in the comments, again, it's a different type of content, you know, it's little, you know, sometimes maybe a little Deborah said she was a little bored, uh, but we try to make it fun with, uh, Brian and I do them, uh,
• 1:10:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: mentioned markets.
• 1:10:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: If you guys like that stuff, we can do more content around it.
• 1:10:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let us know in the comments, but we appreciate everybody tuning in and I'll be back later this week Friday afternoon 1 p.m. Eastern with Brendan.
• 1:10:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: We'll do a little technical analysis and break down the rest of the news this week.
• 1:10:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: So thanks for tuning in.
• 1:10:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: We'll talk to everybody soon.
• 1:10:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: Bye everybody.