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Diesel Prices Are Becoming a Bigger Inflation Threat · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: and Mark Fandetti.
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Speaker 2: It's Chuck, it's Mark, and it's Tucker with you here,
1:12
Speaker 2: and we've got markets in motion today. The S and
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Speaker 2: P's up forty nine points, the Dow is up three
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Speaker 2: twenty one NASDAK lagging behind, up about one hundred and
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Speaker 2: ten points. Ten year Treasury catching a bid down five
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Speaker 2: point three basis points. This on the news that the
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Speaker 2: US Treasury is going to be doubling the size of
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Speaker 2: its buyback program for ten to thirty year treasuries beginning
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Speaker 2: on September sixth and lasting through the end of the
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Speaker 2: quarterly refunding period on November fourth. Fancy way, here's what
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Speaker 2: the Treasury does. They occasionally conduct operations to go and
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Speaker 2: buy longer term treasuries, financing that with the sale of
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Speaker 2: shorter term treasuries. They are doubling the size of that program. Basically,
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Speaker 2: my read on it is they don't like the fact
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Speaker 2: that long term yields have gotten as high as they've gone,
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Speaker 2: and so they want to be increasing the amount of
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Speaker 2: purchasing power that they have behind that treasury buyback program.
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Speaker 2: It's not something that is going to solve all of
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Speaker 2: our debt problems if it were that simple, then countries
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Speaker 2: like Brazil and Argentina and Turkey would never have problems
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Speaker 2: with their debt or the interest rates on them. It's
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Speaker 2: more a band aid that doesn't deal with any of
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Speaker 2: the underlying issues. Furthermore, higher yields not just a US problem.
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Speaker 2: We've talked about this mark. They're going up around the world,
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Speaker 2: So this is not people that are demanding a higher
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Speaker 2: rate of interest from the US. They're demanding it from everyone.
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Speaker 2: And so you end up in a situation where the
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Speaker 2: Treasury now is conducting increased interventions into that market. And again,
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Speaker 2: I personally am very skeptical this will end up working
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Speaker 2: out well in the law long term. And it really
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Speaker 2: gives some conflicting advice on what to on how to
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Speaker 2: approach these markets, because FED chair Kevin Warrish is saying, hey,
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Speaker 2: we want to listen to what the bond market is
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Speaker 2: telling us about how it's reacting to data, and Scott
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Speaker 2: Besson's like, nope, I'm going to push the buy button
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Speaker 2: if things get too out of control here.
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Speaker 3: It's a gimmick. Gimmicks typically have a short half life.
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Speaker 3: I was going to be very dismissive and say, well,
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Speaker 3: the government doesn't control interest rates, but it does control supply,
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Speaker 3: and if it's decided to commit to more short end
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Speaker 3: issuance that could influence longer term does.
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Speaker 2: And this is not always bad necessarily either.
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Speaker 3: It's got to be smart. And the problem is that
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Speaker 3: we're exchanging potentially. I don't know what bonds they're buying back,
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Speaker 3: but most recent long term issuance had a lower The
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Speaker 3: issue the interest rate on longer term debt right now
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Speaker 3: is lower on average than on shorter term debt. So
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Speaker 3: it's not clear to me that this saves you money.
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Speaker 2: So ultimately this is driving a few things. The dollar
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Speaker 2: is getting hit today now, down point seventy four percent
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Speaker 2: to ninety eight eight one five, gold catching a monster
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Speaker 2: bid up almost three percent, and twenty seven bucks ouns
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Speaker 2: to forty five forty eight. So after a day or
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Speaker 2: so of weakness, uh, this comes in and just gooses gold.
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Speaker 2: And you've got crude oil up dollars eleven a barrel
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Speaker 2: on West Text Intermediate to eighty six oh five. Gas
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Speaker 2: prices triple a national average is up another two cents
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Speaker 2: overnight as well, to four h eight and six tenths
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Speaker 2: of a cent. The one to watch. We're gonna talk
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Speaker 2: about this later in the hour. Diesel up another four
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Speaker 2: cents a gallon to five point fifty and four tenths.
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Speaker 2: UH diesel is now just thirty one cents away from
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Speaker 2: a new all time high UH as we continue to
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Speaker 2: see UH distilates being just in high demand and just
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Speaker 2: not enough production UH to fulfill all of that need.
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Speaker 2: This even before we get into the fall season mark.
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Speaker 2: Did you know so summer driving season, the peak of
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Speaker 2: it is in August. Okay, do you know what peak
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Speaker 2: diesel season is? No peak diesel seasons, no peak deal?
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Speaker 2: Two things Christmas shipping. Two things contribute to it. Christmas shipping,
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Speaker 2: so all of the stores getting their inventory into place.
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Speaker 2: The other thing, it's harvest time. All the harvest, all
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Speaker 2: the big heavy machinery runs on diesel, and so that
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Speaker 2: stuff gets fired up, you know, in a pretty concentrated period.
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Speaker 2: And so it's you got, you know, summer driving period
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Speaker 2: and then diesel period for the harvest and fall shipping.
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Speaker 3: The fact that I'm not even aware of the impact
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Speaker 3: of harvest time on the economy, yes, speaks number one
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Speaker 3: of my own ignorance. And secondly to how I was marginalized,
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Speaker 3: isn't quite the right word mark.
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Speaker 2: We do our show in New England. We're not prime
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Speaker 2: time for like harvesting. We should be.
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Speaker 3: This is New England though, I mean, wait, we have something,
5:53
Speaker 3: but it's also not eighteen thirty. So but that's the thing.
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Speaker 2: Ever since the rail we're just so detected.
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Speaker 3: Yes, I was trying to be precise in that.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, people don't realize this. If you go
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Speaker 2: through like I don't know how you guys ever been
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Speaker 2: to like rural Maine. You can't just not you have
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Speaker 2: to say something. We're on the radio. You have been
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Speaker 2: to rural Maine. Like you walk through like the forest
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Speaker 2: there and you just find these like stone Walls've ever
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Speaker 2: done that? You find these stone walls that are just
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Speaker 2: in the middle of the forest, and you're like, we.
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Speaker 3: Have a lot of those.
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Speaker 2: Two you haven't been mass Usetts too, Yeah, but you're
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Speaker 2: like what what what gives? Like what's the deal here?
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Speaker 2: And it turns out, basically until the mid to late
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Speaker 2: eighteen hundreds, rural Maine and Massachusetts were huge farmland because
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Speaker 2: it was how you got food for the region and everything. Well,
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Speaker 2: once the railroad came around and we found out, gee,
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Speaker 2: there's all this you know, fertile land out in the
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Speaker 2: plains that we knew about. But now you can ship
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Speaker 2: this stuff back to the East coast more easily. All
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Speaker 2: that farmland, hey, after one hundred and fifty years of disuse,
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Speaker 2: turns back into forest. And it's it's very cool. It's
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Speaker 2: very it is cool. But uh look New England still
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Speaker 2: has like it's it's stuff that we do, you know,
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Speaker 2: like we're very good at apples. What else? What else
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Speaker 2: is New England Cranberry's squash, pumpkins, all those kinds of things.
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Speaker 2: You know, certainly those are those are big and pot sure, yeah, absolutely,
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Speaker 2: even though that's that's most of the country these days.
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Speaker 2: How many states is it legal in now? North to
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Speaker 2: thirty I believe. In any case, we digress. Big news
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Speaker 2: this morning Maderna company that honestly, I don't think we've
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Speaker 2: talked about in any meaningful capacity in probably four to
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Speaker 2: five years. Maderna stock this morning up one hundred and
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Speaker 2: twenty two percent this on news that they have a
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Speaker 2: Phase three trial they've been conducting in conjunction with Merk
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Speaker 2: on melanoma patients, and melanoma doesn't cause it's not it's
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Speaker 2: only like one percent of all skin cancers, maybe like
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Speaker 2: one to three percent, but it's the most deadly of them.
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Speaker 2: Most of them don't cause you know, major problems very quickly,
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Speaker 2: whereas melanoma can. And basically they have an mRNA based
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Speaker 2: vaccine that in conjunction with a drug from MRK. The
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Speaker 2: early stage two result was that it eliminated recurrence and
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Speaker 2: new spots where the melanoma was popping up by up
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Speaker 2: to fifty percent. We don't have data from the stage
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Speaker 2: three trial yet, they didn't release it as part of
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Speaker 2: this press release, but basically they're saying, look, if you
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Speaker 2: have surgery to remove a melanoma and you're on this
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Speaker 2: combined treatment, it dramatically to the tune of probably somewhere
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Speaker 2: around fifty percent reduces your risk of recurrence, which is
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Speaker 2: huge because recurrence in melanoma is a major thing. The
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Speaker 2: other things that we're seeing, similarly from other mRNA trials
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Speaker 2: in pancreatic cancer, and I think the other one is
8:54
Speaker 2: triple negative breast cancer. You're seeing other trials that are
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Speaker 2: ongoing for the type of treatment as well, where a
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Speaker 2: customized vaccine is made for each person based on the
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Speaker 2: tumor profile, and you're then able to have these tremendous results,
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Speaker 2: and we're getting to the point where the next five
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Speaker 2: to fifteen years of cancer treatment could look dramatically different
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Speaker 2: from what the last seventy five have looked like and
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Speaker 2: potentially have significantly better outcomes. So Maderna stock responding positively.
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Speaker 2: But I think the big news is not the stock price,
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Speaker 2: quite honestly, but just the fact that the face of
9:34
Speaker 2: cancer treatments can can be This could be something that
9:38
Speaker 2: changes lives for millions of people within a generation.
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Speaker 3: And it's not just sentimental. There's economic impact. Sure, it's look,
9:47
Speaker 3: the point of economics, the point of finance, the point
9:50
Speaker 3: of capital markets is to make people happier. Sometimes we
9:52
Speaker 3: lose sight of that. But they only exist because it
9:54
Speaker 3: allows if they facilitate exchanges that make people that when
9:58
Speaker 3: they're mutual, consensual, etc. Make people better off. The only
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Speaker 3: reason we do what we do. Sure, we do what
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Speaker 3: we do because you want to save a little bit
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Speaker 3: more today and enjoy a better quality of life tomorrow.
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Speaker 3: That might be security for some people. It might be
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Speaker 3: more goods and services for other people. That might be
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Speaker 3: a fantasy car for you. It's different, is my point.
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Speaker 3: Everyone's got the only reason all this crap exists. It's
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Speaker 3: great that, but dirt is going up and to the
10:20
Speaker 3: extent if you own it, it enhances maybe your financial security.
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Speaker 3: But this is really about and I don't mean to
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Speaker 3: sound philosophical here because I'm really not usually when it
10:29
Speaker 3: comes to the kind of stuff, but it's the only
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Speaker 3: reason capital markets exist is because people find that by
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Speaker 3: having their money intermediated by these markets, they're able to
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Speaker 3: better facilitate exchanges today and tomorrow. And that's it, full stop.
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Speaker 2: So pretty big news there. Let's take a quick break.
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Speaker 2: When we return. We got a couple earnings to touch
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Speaker 2: on for the consumer space target and Low's. We'll talk
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Speaker 2: about them next.
10:57
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Speaker 2: Mark. We had a couple of earnings reports that came
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Speaker 2: out in the consumer space here. Let's talk first a
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Speaker 2: little bit about Target. This is a company that just
12:11
Speaker 2: has been kind of not executing very well recently. Stocks
12:16
Speaker 2: up about five and a half percent after this earnings reports.
12:20
Speaker 2: Basically they are now pointing towards faster sales growth this
12:23
Speaker 2: year than they previously had guided and so maybe the
12:27
Speaker 2: early stages of some kind of turnaround here.
12:31
Speaker 3: Maybe what do we need, like a year I've never
12:33
Speaker 3: done the analysis at this level for a company, but
12:37
Speaker 3: how much data would you need to be sure? Investors
12:40
Speaker 3: don't typically require much a good story, a little bit
12:43
Speaker 3: of confirmation. I think we have that in both cases.
12:47
Speaker 3: If you want a bullish case on Target. It's tangible
12:51
Speaker 3: efforts made operationally and what should you say, public relations wise,
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Speaker 3: image wise, optically, sure, because it is a sales it
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Speaker 3: is a salesmanship. Yeah, so you got that a change
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Speaker 3: of culture maybe if you like, coupled with a change
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Speaker 3: in results. I don't know. I mean, if there's a
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Speaker 3: there's a good bull case, I guess.
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Speaker 2: I've never been a Target shopper myself, like A, I
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Speaker 2: don't know, it's not like, yeah, I've just never spent
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Speaker 2: much time in them, So I don't know if there's
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Speaker 2: you know, tangible changes like you described that. I see that.
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Speaker 3: I do because it's close and I get five percent
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Speaker 3: off when you get there. Sure, card Yeah, I mean
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Speaker 3: it's always been pleasant and they've clearly made a lot
13:35
Speaker 3: of dramatic physical alterations in the past thirty six months.
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Speaker 4: I was reading that Bloomberg piece published yesterday how Target
13:41
Speaker 4: pretty much is kind of waving the white flag in
13:45
Speaker 4: terms of being a discount grocer and competing with Walmart,
13:48
Speaker 4: and they're really focused on like health centric foods now,
13:52
Speaker 4: and I thought that was an interesting, interesting pivot.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: Again, if you're a shareholder, I think you look at
13:57
Speaker 3: the margins on those two business lines, and that makes
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Speaker 3: you happy if they can execute properly.
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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you don't want to be competing with Walmart
14:04
Speaker 2: on price. Good luck with that.
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Speaker 3: The off chance we have another pandemic and they let
14:08
Speaker 3: you stay open.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, good luck with that. Low's reporting earnings as well.
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Speaker 2: They are expecting comparable store sales to be flat this
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Speaker 2: year after previously expecting two percent growth. This comes on
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Speaker 2: the back of home deep ot reporting. I think it
14:22
Speaker 2: was one and a half percent same store sales growth
14:24
Speaker 2: for Q two, but some acceleration towards the end of
14:27
Speaker 2: the quarter. I continue to think that we are closer
14:31
Speaker 2: to the end of the bottom of the housing cycle
14:34
Speaker 2: than the beginning. The last three four years, housing's just
14:37
Speaker 2: been stuck very much in neutral. Green shoots starting to
14:42
Speaker 2: show up in places like Florida, in places like Georgia, Texas,
14:47
Speaker 2: things along those lines. And so even though housing has
14:51
Speaker 2: just been a mess pretty much twenty twenty three through
14:54
Speaker 2: this year, I think that we are starting to get
14:58
Speaker 2: to a point where I'm just not sure how much,
15:03
Speaker 2: you know, more bad news can end up, you know,
15:06
Speaker 2: showing up that would surprise people in the housing space.
15:09
Speaker 2: Maybe there's something, But it just doesn't feel like there's
15:13
Speaker 2: much juice left there now that those markets that do
15:16
Speaker 2: tend to be you know, more developmentally focused in terms
15:20
Speaker 2: of larger developments and cheaper you know, input costs, now
15:23
Speaker 2: that those ones are recovering, Yeah, I think you're still
15:27
Speaker 2: going to have, you know, some sluggishness in housing throughout
15:29
Speaker 2: the Northeast, the Midwest, and the West coast, but even
15:32
Speaker 2: the West coast. Look, the northern California area is going
15:35
Speaker 2: gangbusters with all the AI money that's slashing around there now.
15:38
Speaker 2: And so I think that housing is set nationwide to
15:43
Speaker 2: start to bottom in the next six to twelve months,
15:46
Speaker 2: and I think the second half of twenty seven into
15:48
Speaker 2: twenty eight has the potential to be really constructive for
15:51
Speaker 2: housing pun intended.
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Speaker 3: I guess, Yeah, to have a nationwide revival. Yeah, you
16:00
Speaker 3: need lower interest rates, I assume.
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Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much lower you need them. And
16:04
Speaker 2: the reason why is just because the average effective mortgage
16:09
Speaker 2: rate that's outstanding continues to creep up every year because
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Speaker 2: people are taking out new mortgages that are higher rates
16:17
Speaker 2: than the ones that were either they previously had or
16:19
Speaker 2: that other people holding mortgages previously had and so we're
16:23
Speaker 2: now up into the mid forest for the average rate
16:25
Speaker 2: outstanding another couple of years, you get that coast to
16:29
Speaker 2: five and it's like, Okay, what's the difference between someone
16:31
Speaker 2: going with like a five percent mortgage and six and
16:33
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah, it's not ideal, but it's far more
16:36
Speaker 2: manageable than people going from like three to seven.
16:40
Speaker 1: You know.
16:41
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was gonna try to tie this to the
16:44
Speaker 3: machinations of treasure. Well they're not machinations. They're very opaque
16:48
Speaker 3: and widely known of the Treasury today. Sure, I'll call
16:55
Speaker 3: exchanging short term for long term debt, even though that's
16:58
Speaker 3: not technically correct. Clearly the regime, the administration's desperate to
17:02
Speaker 3: get longer term rates down, and maybe there's maybe it's
17:06
Speaker 3: not just political. I'm tying it to the upcoming election,
17:08
Speaker 3: and the president would love to say we got mortgage
17:10
Speaker 3: rates down twenty basis points or whatever in the past
17:12
Speaker 3: two months. But maybe there are liquidity issues. You and
17:14
Speaker 3: I talked about this before the show. Why would the
17:17
Speaker 3: treasure be intervening in the long end of the market.
17:19
Speaker 3: Are there real liquidity concerns or are these are these
17:21
Speaker 3: concerns fundamentally driven there's always that debate when when a
17:25
Speaker 3: market goes haywire, is it go ahead?
17:27
Speaker 2: I'll put a third possibility out there, and this is
17:30
Speaker 2: the one that I tend to believe. I don't think
17:33
Speaker 2: it's either of those that's driving the boat. I don't
17:36
Speaker 2: think it's liquidity concerns, and I don't think it's political
17:38
Speaker 2: concerns either.
17:40
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, technically a fundamental it's liquidity fundamental,
17:43
Speaker 3: or I think this is.
17:45
Speaker 2: Very much budget focused. I don't know how you would
17:49
Speaker 2: characterize that the United States government cannot pay three point
17:53
Speaker 2: one percent real interest on thirty year treasuries?
17:58
Speaker 3: Are are they buying tips too?
17:59
Speaker 1: Though?
17:59
Speaker 2: What do you mean that's the real They can buy tape,
18:02
Speaker 2: they can buy tips as well.
18:04
Speaker 3: Okay.
18:05
Speaker 2: But even if you will get again, like you will
18:06
Speaker 2: get just you know, regular thirty year treasuries and you
18:09
Speaker 2: just you know, dissemble it into its components, you're still
18:11
Speaker 2: paying you know, three point one percent on the thirty.
18:14
Speaker 3: Year the real rate.
18:16
Speaker 2: Right, Yes, okay, the US government cannot pay those rates
18:20
Speaker 2: and make the budget work.
18:22
Speaker 3: But short term rates, the average short term rates we
18:24
Speaker 3: talked about in the last hour, right, no hour is
18:26
Speaker 3: higher than the average bill rate is high in the
18:27
Speaker 3: average bond rate.
18:28
Speaker 2: I know the averages, but you don't know which ones
18:31
Speaker 2: they're actually buying, is my point.
18:34
Speaker 3: Yep, but you're buying them back at a higher price.
18:37
Speaker 2: Let's do let's do math on the radio just for
18:39
Speaker 2: a second. Let's say that you have to pay one
18:42
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty cents on the dollar for a six
18:47
Speaker 2: percent you know, a five and a half percent.
18:50
Speaker 3: Treasury bonding with a bill with a new T bill.
18:52
Speaker 2: You're funding it with a new T bill that even
18:54
Speaker 2: when you account for that, you might end up saving
18:57
Speaker 2: there because the curve is steepened relative where it was
19:00
Speaker 2: when it was issued.
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Speaker 3: Okay, I can't Yeah, okay.
19:04
Speaker 2: It's it's probably net neutral. But ultimately it simply is, Look,
19:10
Speaker 2: we can't pay out that interest anymore like they can't.
19:15
Speaker 2: And and by the way, but here's the other thing.
19:18
Speaker 2: They don't have to buy all of the bonds. That's
19:20
Speaker 2: that's the other point that I want to want to
19:22
Speaker 2: make you. If the rest of the market moves for them,
19:25
Speaker 2: then it saves them the interest just by the market
19:27
Speaker 2: moving for them. Let's take a quick break here. When
19:31
Speaker 2: we return more on this.
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Speaker 5: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
19:43
Speaker 5: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:48
Speaker 1: Tell you Now for whoa Street watch tracking the stocks,
19:52
Speaker 1: Pantato and the headlines driving markets so far today. Right
19:56
Speaker 1: here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 4: Markets are trading higher after the Treasury said it would
20:02
Speaker 4: at least double the amount of bonds it buys back.
20:05
Speaker 4: This move comes after the thirty year treasureel hit its
20:09
Speaker 4: highest level nineteen years earlier this week. Right now, the
20:12
Speaker 4: Dow is up nearly four tenths of a percent or
20:14
Speaker 4: two hundred three points higher, SMP five hundred up about
20:17
Speaker 4: half a percent or thirty six points higher, Nasdaq up
20:20
Speaker 4: four tenths of a percent or one hundred and two
20:23
Speaker 4: points higher. RUSS two thousand and now up nearly one percent.
20:27
Speaker 4: Tenure Chres reeled down about five basis points at four
20:30
Speaker 4: point sixty five seven percent. In Oil up nearly two
20:34
Speaker 4: percent higher, trading at eighty six dollars a barrel. Some
20:37
Speaker 4: major news from Moderna and Mirk this morning, after the
20:40
Speaker 4: biotech firms collaborative experimental vaccine succeeded in preventing cancer from
20:46
Speaker 4: coming back or spreading in a study of high risk
20:50
Speaker 4: melanoma patients, Moderna soaring over one hundred and twenty five percent,
20:55
Speaker 4: while Merk shares are up by eleven percent over to
20:58
Speaker 4: more retailer earnings this morning, where Target provided evidence that
21:02
Speaker 4: its turnaround is making progress after the company beat quarterly expectations,
21:06
Speaker 4: where it's comparable sales grew three point eight percent above
21:10
Speaker 4: street expectations that Stock up five percent, Low's up about
21:14
Speaker 4: three percent, despite the retail of reporting mixed quarterly results
21:17
Speaker 4: as it continued to see pressure in home improvement spending
21:21
Speaker 4: and Marvel Technology jumping over eight percent after it announced
21:25
Speaker 4: it was giving Google permission to buy a twelve billion
21:28
Speaker 4: dollar stake in the chip maker as part of a
21:31
Speaker 4: deal to develop custom chips for Google. I'm Tucker Silvan.
21:35
Speaker 4: That is Wall Street Watch.
21:38
Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about those cute
21:41
Speaker 2: little millennials. You know they're we're not twenty anymore. Here's
21:46
Speaker 2: here's the deal. I it's millennials. They've gotten older like
21:50
Speaker 2: most of us do. And according to a online survey
21:54
Speaker 2: of three thousand millennials from Chime, almost half of US
21:58
Speaker 2: millennials say their financial situation has improved from five years ago.
22:03
Speaker 2: And in particular, we've covered it lent over the last
22:05
Speaker 2: four or five years, how millennial home ownership rates have
22:09
Speaker 2: increased dramatically, Millennials participation in retirement plans have increased dramatically.
22:15
Speaker 2: And so do not say that like everything's all well
22:19
Speaker 2: and good with millennials. But I remember when I graduated
22:22
Speaker 2: from college and in the subsequent you know, five or
22:24
Speaker 2: six years after, in my early to mid twenties, I
22:27
Speaker 2: remember all of the data that was cited about, hey,
22:30
Speaker 2: if you you know, graduate during a bad job market,
22:34
Speaker 2: it impacts your you know, your your financial situation forever.
22:39
Speaker 2: And the data that we're now seeing from millennials is well,
22:43
Speaker 2: not necessarily in this case actually, and look it's it's
22:46
Speaker 2: bolstered by the fact that for much of the last
22:49
Speaker 2: fifteen years, or much the last ten years now, the
22:52
Speaker 2: unemployment rate has been low to historically low. During that
22:57
Speaker 2: time we have had I haven't looked at it, but
23:00
Speaker 2: I'm almost assured that we're talking like top five percentile
23:04
Speaker 2: returns for US markets over like a ten to fifteen
23:07
Speaker 2: year period during that time, probably close to the top
23:10
Speaker 2: one or two percent you know, returns. And so millennials
23:15
Speaker 2: by and large aren't looking any worse off than previous
23:18
Speaker 2: generations as a whole. It's not to say that specific
23:21
Speaker 2: millennials aren't necessarily struggling, but they are specific boomers who struggled,
23:25
Speaker 2: specific Greatest Generation members who struggled. The only generation that
23:30
Speaker 2: wasn't the case for was Gen X because no one
23:32
Speaker 2: paid attention to them. It's true, we don't know how
23:35
Speaker 2: they're doing. We don't know if they even exist. You're
23:38
Speaker 2: a gen X or aren't you.
23:40
Speaker 3: Smack dab in the middle of the gen X generation. Yeah,
23:43
Speaker 3: I'm thank you for calling on me. I put I'm
23:45
Speaker 3: sure if you're going to let me contribute to this segment,
23:47
Speaker 3: as we are typically ignored.
23:49
Speaker 2: I've never met one in the wild. It's good to
23:51
Speaker 2: have you here.
23:53
Speaker 3: I mean, gen X is pretty they think about the
23:56
Speaker 3: movies of that era, late eighties to mid nineties capture
24:00
Speaker 3: the uh what's the where it's not it's not sentiment,
24:05
Speaker 3: just general like attitude disposition. Yeah, maybe something like that.
24:09
Speaker 3: It was more like, you know, a little bit, it's
24:12
Speaker 3: a little bit edgy, a little bit sarca like Jenine
24:13
Speaker 3: Garofalo type gen xers.
24:15
Speaker 2: No one cares about us, but at.
24:16
Speaker 3: The same time kind of laid back. Yeah, well you
24:19
Speaker 3: don't care.
24:19
Speaker 2: About us, fine, like we'll just go with it.
24:21
Speaker 3: You know, well, skateboard or Hackey sack or something.
24:25
Speaker 2: What do you make of what we've seen from millennials
24:28
Speaker 2: and how they've matured financially? Is there any lesson to
24:31
Speaker 2: be taken from this or just randomness that we're trying
24:34
Speaker 2: to make it?
24:34
Speaker 3: A lot of it is just plain luck. You know.
24:36
Speaker 3: We talk about the current administration or the past administration
24:42
Speaker 3: and economic growth concurrent with when they were in office,
24:45
Speaker 3: and things like economic growth, stock market returns. They're driven
24:50
Speaker 3: by long term structural factors. I'm not saying that when
24:54
Speaker 3: a president tries to interfere in monetary policy, like say
24:58
Speaker 3: Nixon did or Trump is done, it's it's not unhelpful.
25:01
Speaker 3: I think it is unhelpful. It messes with inflation expectations.
25:04
Speaker 3: It makes it harder to conduct good monetary policy. I
25:07
Speaker 3: think the tariffs, especially why they've been implemented, has been disastrous,
25:11
Speaker 3: and there's tangible evidence that it's slowed economic growth a
25:14
Speaker 3: lot last year relative to the year before. So presidents
25:17
Speaker 3: can make a little bit of a difference, but it's
25:19
Speaker 3: really on the margin. At the same time, just in
25:22
Speaker 3: the interest of sounding a little bit more fair because
25:24
Speaker 3: I'm tough on Trump's economic views because they're so misinformed.
25:30
Speaker 3: I like the deregulation part of his agenda, I mean
25:33
Speaker 3: my agenda. I'm a free market like libertarian type, so
25:36
Speaker 3: that's really all you need to know. But that's probably
25:38
Speaker 3: been more than offset by him taking shares in public
25:41
Speaker 3: companies and these absurdly inconsistent tariffs. One day he wakes
25:47
Speaker 3: up there's a fifty percent tariff on Brazil because he
25:49
Speaker 3: doesn't like the way they treated their ex president or something.
25:51
Speaker 3: Even if you like the idea of restrictions to improve
25:54
Speaker 3: the balance of trade, that's not the way to do it.
25:57
Speaker 3: And there are examples of democrats doing unproductive things too.
26:01
Speaker 3: So I guess my point is, Chuck, it's luck. You know, demographics, productivity,
26:06
Speaker 3: These breakthroughs happen no matter who AI If it indeed
26:08
Speaker 3: boosts productivity and in turn economic growth, that was gonna
26:12
Speaker 3: happen no matter who. The investment started under Biden, it's
26:15
Speaker 3: blossomed under Trump, It'll probably continue under the next person.
26:19
Speaker 3: Sure Clinton was lucky to be president when he was.
26:22
Speaker 3: Maybe Reagan was lucky too, because the economy was probably
26:24
Speaker 3: as much as I love wrong Reagan. The economy was
26:27
Speaker 3: going to probably turn around either way. Sure Carter would
26:29
Speaker 3: have presided over the Reagan boom, at least in part
26:32
Speaker 3: he was. Carter was deregulating. Volga was Carter's guy.
26:35
Speaker 1: You know.
26:36
Speaker 3: So I'm a little circumspect about attributing growth to policy,
26:42
Speaker 3: and I think it does. To try to answer your
26:44
Speaker 3: question now, coming back full circle, comes down to luck.
26:46
Speaker 3: Boomers were a little bit lucky. They worked really hard.
26:49
Speaker 3: I'm not diminishing that.
26:50
Speaker 2: No. Look, all of us have a certain amount of
26:52
Speaker 2: luck in our.
26:53
Speaker 3: Life, yes, I mean in our lives. Yeah. And life's
26:55
Speaker 3: easier now than it was for my parents. You know,
26:57
Speaker 3: we live longer, we know more about how to live
27:00
Speaker 3: longer in higher quality lives. Everybody's got air conditioning now.
27:04
Speaker 3: We didn't have it grown up.
27:05
Speaker 2: Forty percent of our kids don't die before they reach
27:07
Speaker 2: age five, like you know.
27:08
Speaker 3: Oh god, yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:10
Speaker 2: Again.
27:10
Speaker 3: It's where we have a medical problem. I can go
27:12
Speaker 3: to a medical office, but I can go to an
27:14
Speaker 3: urging care facility. I can go to telehealth and get
27:17
Speaker 3: prescribed an antibiotic for any earache. These are things we
27:20
Speaker 3: didn't have thirty years ago. So it's hard to make comparisons, folks.
27:23
Speaker 2: The Armstrong Advisory Group has a guide available this month
27:26
Speaker 2: titled Navigating Retirement Housing Choices and obviously look where you
27:31
Speaker 2: live in retirement kind has a big impact on your
27:35
Speaker 2: overall life. What you need for a house during the
27:38
Speaker 2: first five years of retirement might be different from the
27:41
Speaker 2: next five or from the five that come after that.
27:43
Speaker 2: So how do you make sure that you have a
27:45
Speaker 2: coherent plan for housing all the way through retirement. You
27:49
Speaker 2: get as much information as you can and then you
27:51
Speaker 2: make the best decisions possible. This guide is all about
27:54
Speaker 2: giving you the information needed to accurately assess what you
27:58
Speaker 2: need at different points in your retirement from your home
28:01
Speaker 2: and then figure out, Okay, how do I go and
28:04
Speaker 2: actually make the choice as to what to do. Two
28:07
Speaker 2: ways that you can request it. The first you can
28:08
Speaker 2: call eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
28:12
Speaker 2: Second option, you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com
28:15
Speaker 2: and request it there. The guide again is Navigating Retirement
28:18
Speaker 2: Housing Choices, and you can call eight hundred three nine
28:21
Speaker 2: three four zero zero one.
28:24
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
28:26
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
28:29
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
28:32
Speaker 1: your own financial tax and to state planning advisors before
28:34
Speaker 1: making any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer
28:37
Speaker 1: investment advisory services.
28:39
Speaker 2: I want to talk a little bit about diesel prices.
28:42
Speaker 2: I know all of us tend to focus on gas
28:44
Speaker 2: prices because the vast majority of US don't drive diesel
28:47
Speaker 2: powered vehicles. Gas prices buy and large have been for
28:51
Speaker 2: most of the last five months anywhere between like three
28:55
Speaker 2: ninety and four ten a gallon, So in a pretty
28:57
Speaker 2: tight dough elevated range period in May where we got
29:01
Speaker 2: up close to four fifty, but that was only for
29:04
Speaker 2: about you know, three four weeks. The majority of the
29:06
Speaker 2: spring through the summer, we've been kind of in that again,
29:09
Speaker 2: three ninety to four to ten range elevated relative to
29:12
Speaker 2: you know, the two ninety to three ten that we
29:14
Speaker 2: were paying pre Iran War, but not that you know,
29:18
Speaker 2: four to fifty that we got up to very briefly. Diesel,
29:21
Speaker 2: on the other hand, is moving back towards all time highs,
29:25
Speaker 2: and I say all time, not you know, cycle highs.
29:29
Speaker 2: The all time high that we hit on diesel was
29:31
Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty two, about three four months after
29:35
Speaker 2: the outbreak of war in Ukraine, where we got up
29:38
Speaker 2: to five eighty one a gallon, we are now at
29:41
Speaker 2: five point fifty a gallon according to Triple A. And
29:44
Speaker 2: based on what we're seeing in terms of overall demand
29:48
Speaker 2: and inventories and things like that, there's a there's a
29:51
Speaker 2: non zero chance there's a real chance that we hit
29:54
Speaker 2: all time highs on diesel in the next month. No
29:58
Speaker 2: one's really talking about this because is like, no one
30:01
Speaker 2: wakes up just like, gee, what's the price of diesel today?
30:03
Speaker 2: Because most of us don't use it as a direct
30:06
Speaker 2: input into our lives, but indirectly when you talk about
30:09
Speaker 2: shipping costs, when you talk about cost of producing food,
30:14
Speaker 2: cost of producing you know, industrial equipment like diesel, factors
30:18
Speaker 2: into all of these different areas in pretty robust ways.
30:22
Speaker 2: So when we talk about, you know, the potential for
30:25
Speaker 2: additional inflationary impulses out there, at least in the short term. Hey,
30:30
Speaker 2: higher diesel prices have the potential to make those energy
30:33
Speaker 2: prices seep into other parts of the economy other than
30:36
Speaker 2: just the non core areas. And this is potentially something
30:41
Speaker 2: very sneaky over the next month or so, they could
30:43
Speaker 2: be putting some upward pressure on inflation. The other thing
30:46
Speaker 2: that you got to pay attention to. And look, if
30:49
Speaker 2: you're listening to our show from outside the Northeast, you
30:51
Speaker 2: don't know what this is, but home heating oil, which
30:54
Speaker 2: is a very close cousin of diesel. Home heating oil
30:58
Speaker 2: basically tracks the price of deal like they trade almost
31:01
Speaker 2: in tandem because they're very similar. It's and so if
31:07
Speaker 2: you're in the Northeast, there's about a twenty percent chance
31:10
Speaker 2: that your home is heated with home heating oil, where
31:12
Speaker 2: a big truck comes and hooks itself up to a
31:13
Speaker 2: spigot on the side of your house and pumps it
31:15
Speaker 2: into a tank, usually in your basement or somewhere like that,
31:18
Speaker 2: and then you burn that in order to heat your house.
31:22
Speaker 2: You get a twenty percent chance in New England of
31:24
Speaker 2: this being the way you feel the way you heat
31:26
Speaker 2: your home. Home heating oil prices are going to be
31:29
Speaker 2: way higher than they were at this point last year,
31:32
Speaker 2: Like diesel, just by comparison, was three sixty nine at
31:35
Speaker 2: this time last year. It's five fifty. Now expect it,
31:38
Speaker 2: like you've got to expect your home heating oil bills
31:41
Speaker 2: to be fifty percent higher than last year.
31:42
Speaker 3: Should I fill up now or should I wait?
31:44
Speaker 2: I have no idea. I have no idea.
31:47
Speaker 3: Because I waited last year and I'm down to less
31:49
Speaker 3: than an eighth.
31:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have no idea.
31:53
Speaker 3: Okay, not helpful.
31:54
Speaker 2: Can you head your bets? I don't know you can.
31:57
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do in financial markets. I
31:59
Speaker 2: hedge my bets. Yeah you yeah.
32:03
Speaker 3: As you know, oil companies home meeting, oil companies sell insurance.
32:07
Speaker 3: They let you lock in a yes. I never opt
32:09
Speaker 3: for that because I figure that there's a coin flips
32:13
Speaker 3: chance that prices will be with a higher or lower
32:16
Speaker 3: than they are today, and you can fill up any
32:19
Speaker 3: time a year, so it's not a lot of money.
32:23
Speaker 3: But if you're like me and you yeah, are a
32:26
Speaker 3: skin flint, you might be trying to time it.
32:29
Speaker 2: There's no problems with filling up earlier. It's not like leaving.
32:34
Speaker 3: You don't have to stabilize it.
32:36
Speaker 2: Yeah.
32:37
Speaker 3: No, I'm just now versus the fall. I have no idea, okay,
32:41
Speaker 3: And I keep asking the same question hoping to get
32:43
Speaker 3: a different answer.
32:43
Speaker 2: From you, Chuck Tucker, what do you think?
32:46
Speaker 3: Definitely not you have home meeting oil floating palace on
32:51
Speaker 3: the South Shore.
32:52
Speaker 2: Nope, No, let's take a quick break. When we come back,
32:54
Speaker 2: we'll do a little bit of stack roulette next.
32:57
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34:00
Speaker 2: Mark, I want to talk a little bit about uh,
34:04
Speaker 2: I wanna talk about pervert glasses nice.
34:08
Speaker 3: So it's here all you.
34:11
Speaker 2: This is what the uh smart ray bands from Meta
34:15
Speaker 2: are being called. And like metas Meta has gone so
34:20
Speaker 2: far as to like have to be like, okay, maybe
34:23
Speaker 2: we need to like rethink this. And the big story is, Look,
34:26
Speaker 2: people don't want to be secretly recorded during their everyday life.
34:32
Speaker 2: Either hey, like you built the device wrong such that
34:36
Speaker 2: it's able to do this, or be you built pervert
34:38
Speaker 2: classes like that's kind of those are the options. And
34:42
Speaker 2: so Apple apparently is uh coming out with this I'll
34:48
Speaker 2: quote he from Bloomberg and what appears to be a
34:50
Speaker 2: curiously sloppy oversight, Apple has an inadvertently confirmed Bloomberg's reporting
34:54
Speaker 2: on the company's first big swing and AI enhanced wearable
34:58
Speaker 2: device hidden in a coming Maxim software update. A thirteen
35:01
Speaker 2: second video shows a man wearing AirPods pick up a
35:03
Speaker 2: book and hold it in front of him. Quote. With
35:05
Speaker 2: visual intelligence, your world becomes savable. See something you like,
35:08
Speaker 2: just ask me to save it for later. And I
35:11
Speaker 2: gotta tell you there's multiple reasons why this is bad.
35:17
Speaker 2: Basically all of them are bad. Actually, like this is
35:20
Speaker 2: just not something that anyone wants. No one wants to
35:23
Speaker 2: think that there's the potential that a stranger could have
35:26
Speaker 2: a wearable device that is capturing everything that they are
35:30
Speaker 2: doing without their knowledge or consent. On top of which,
35:34
Speaker 2: when you get into the problem, excuse me, when you
35:39
Speaker 2: get into the problem. I want to make sure that
35:42
Speaker 2: I quote this right, because if I quote it wrong,
35:46
Speaker 2: it's bad. Here we go. This is from Wired Meta
35:52
Speaker 2: ran ads for an app that promised to new toify
35:54
Speaker 2: female politicians. Okay, so these are AI based apps that
35:59
Speaker 2: are being added advertised on metas platforms. So if I
36:03
Speaker 2: have the ability to secretly record anyone who comes into
36:08
Speaker 2: my field of view, and now these AI based nudity
36:11
Speaker 2: apps are just floating around and advertising on social media.
36:16
Speaker 2: That sucks, man, Like, that's just a crappy world. And
36:22
Speaker 2: no one cares about this obviously, Like in terms of
36:24
Speaker 2: the big companies, all of us do. And it's it's
36:27
Speaker 2: basically up to us to be like, hey, these things
36:30
Speaker 2: suck and they should not be products that you are making.
36:35
Speaker 2: That's where I stand on it.
36:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, does Zuckerberg have any idea what people want? I mean,
36:39
Speaker 3: he didn't know he's a concept of Facebook.
36:41
Speaker 2: Okay, you know, he didn't even know people wanted legs
36:44
Speaker 2: in the metaverse, Mark, No, the actual problem was they
36:50
Speaker 2: were torsos for a while because they couldn't get the
36:52
Speaker 2: legs to animate properly. That was the reason, and then
36:55
Speaker 2: they finally like did an update and we're like metaverse
36:58
Speaker 2: four point zero now with.
37:01
Speaker 3: I'm still like a red blooded, really committed capitalist, but
37:04
Speaker 3: I've lost a lot of faith in business leaders over
37:06
Speaker 3: the past several years, especially tech leaders. I think they've
37:10
Speaker 3: shown singularly bad judge judgment and they're just totally tone
37:15
Speaker 3: deaf data center. We don't talk about it a lot. Sorry, gotcha.
37:18
Speaker 2: You don't expect them to be, you know, moral. I
37:20
Speaker 2: don't think anyone expects like morality from CEOs, but you
37:25
Speaker 2: just don't expect like the outward cash grab.
37:31
Speaker 3: Yes, I was gonna say naked led So yeah, in
37:35
Speaker 3: Zuckerbrok's case, yeah, he's not. In his defense, no, but
37:41
Speaker 3: they're all doing this stuff. I mean again, it was
37:43
Speaker 3: Zuckerberg's company that had like the whole memo about, hey,
37:47
Speaker 3: here's like what we want to be allowable sexual content
37:50
Speaker 3: for thirteen year olds on our platform. That means you've
37:55
Speaker 3: thought about it and still decided to go ahead with it.
37:57
Speaker 3: That your chat bot should be able to already talk
38:00
Speaker 3: with thirteen year olds, and these are the people that
38:03
Speaker 3: we're trusting with our future. No, thank you, I'll skip
38:06
Speaker 3: the perfect glasses. Let's take a quick break for the
38:10
Speaker 3: rest of the day. We're going to be back tomorrow
38:13
Speaker 3: with more financial exchange mark. Don't push the desk forward.
38:15
Speaker 2: Thank you,