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The Inaugural “Predictable w/ Stu” NFL Prediction Market Draft! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

0:00
Welcome
0:00
to Predictable with Stu.
0:02
Uh,
0:02
we have a great show for you today.
0:03
Gonna be a lot of fun.
0:04
We have our very first
0:05
NFL prediction market draft on the program.
0:09
NFL is in season.
0:10
I'm ready for it.
0:11
Although the game last night was
0:13
one of the worst football games I've ever seen in my life.
0:15
That's a whole another story.
0:16
Uh,
0:16
we have a new candidate countdown.
0:18
Yes,
0:18
we give you a different candidate,
0:19
different race
0:20
that we give you,
0:21
uh,
0:21
hopefully,
0:22
uh,
0:23
a winner.
0:23
I mean,
0:23
it's more
0:24
that I have money on,
0:25
so I hope it wins.
0:26
Uh,
0:27
we give you one every single show.
0:28
We'll give you one today from
0:30
my home state here of Texas,
0:32
and we have so much more as well.
0:34
Make sure to join us at predictableshow.com or on YouTube,
0:37
youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
0:54
All right,
0:55
Predictable with Stu.
0:56
Welcome.
0:56
So,
0:57
uh,
0:57
thank you so much for coming and uh hanging out with us today.
0:59
We have a lot of stuff to talk to you about,
1:00
hopefully making your uh very unpredictable world,
1:03
uh,
1:03
slightly more predictable.
1:05
That's what we try to do here on a day to day basis.
1:07
And you,
1:07
of course,
1:07
get us,
1:07
I mentioned on YouTube and onpredictableShow.com.
1:12
Of course,
1:12
also a podcast wherever you listen to podcasts,
1:15
we'd love for you to join us there.
1:16
And coming very soon,
1:18
just announced yesterday,
1:19
excited to uh be
1:20
even more part of the Blaze TV team.
1:23
Predictable with Stu coming to Blaze TV
1:26
uh very soon.
1:27
So make sure,
1:27
uh,
1:28
if you are a Blaze TV subscriber,
1:29
we would love to,
1:30
uh,
1:30
have that continue,
1:31
of course.
1:32
Uh,
1:32
if you are not,
1:33
it's a great place to jump on.
1:34
If you love,
1:35
uh,
1:35
you know,
1:35
if you love news,
1:36
you love politics,
1:37
you love culture.
1:38
Uh,
1:38
you,
1:38
you know,
1:39
you love,
1:39
uh,
1:40
really talking about
1:41
what's going on in the world.
1:41
You're gonna love
1:42
Blaze TV and,
1:44
uh,
1:44
Predictable Stew available right in your feed now,
1:46
uh,
1:46
very soon at least at blazetv.com.
1:49
Um,
1:50
and I also have a show there called Stu and Dave Do America,
1:53
which you can go to,
1:54
uh,
1:54
blazetv.com/Stean Dave
1:56
and uh get signed up.
1:57
We would love to have you.
1:58
Uh,
1:58
I want to introduce you to our panel.
2:00
We have an exciting thing we're going to do today.
2:03
Yes,
2:03
the NFL season is going on.
2:04
We're gonna do an NFL over under prediction market draft for the first time.
2:09
And I wanna bring on,
2:10
uh,
2:10
let's go to,
2:10
is Keith Malinac there?
2:12
Uh,
2:12
he is,
2:13
uh,
2:13
there he is,
2:14
Keith.
2:14
Keith Malinac is there.
2:15
Also part of Blaze TV I should mention,
2:18
of course,
2:18
over,
2:19
uh,
2:19
on Pat
2:20
Gray Unleashed and at the mic as well.
2:23
His show is,
2:24
is it,
2:24
uh,
2:24
what's the,
2:24
what's the website ATM.
2:27
ATMshow.com.
2:28
ATMshow.com.
2:29
Uh,
2:29
you could also get ATM locations there.
2:32
I don't know if people don't know that you can find your nearby,
2:35
uh,
2:35
Wells Fargo location
2:37
as well at ATMshow.com.
2:39
Keith Malinac,
2:39
thanks so much for joining us.
2:40
Keith.
2:40
This is kind of like,
2:42
uh,
2:43
continuing a tradition,
2:44
a long-standing tradition.
2:46
Uh,
2:46
we've been doing over-unders on,
2:48
uh,
2:48
on the Pat Gray Unleashed show for,
2:50
for many,
2:50
many years.
2:51
Um,
2:52
and,
2:52
you know,
2:52
this year we didn't get around to it and I was like,
2:54
well,
2:54
we gotta,
2:55
we gotta
2:55
still do them somehow.
2:56
I got,
2:56
we got,
2:57
I mean,
2:57
look,
2:58
Jeffy would mostly just say,
2:59
you know,
3:00
18,
3:01
uh,
3:01
and,
3:02
and he'd say,
3:03
you know,
3:03
I,
3:03
I,
3:04
I like the blue team.
3:05
I mean,
3:05
his analysis wasn't exactly deep.
3:07
Uh,
3:08
you know,
3:08
we all know Pat is more of a,
3:10
a college football junkie,
3:12
but I knew you were on board here for NFL over-unders anytime you wanted to do them.
3:16
Absolutely.
3:17
And the baton has been passed to you,
3:19
uh,
3:20
for,
3:20
for hosting this.
3:21
I will just say the sad part of that is that my track record
3:24
and Jeffy's track record,
3:25
um,
3:26
predicting
3:27
was pretty similar,
3:28
which is sad considering how much time I spend
3:30
watching the NFL.
3:32
It's,
3:33
it's exactly what happens though.
3:34
You spend all this time
3:35
getting ready for the NFL season.
3:37
You,
3:37
I mean,
3:37
you,
3:38
you're,
3:38
I know,
3:38
uh,
3:38
Keith and I I go back and forth all the time on fantasy football as well.
3:42
You spent all this time,
3:42
you get this draft,
3:43
like,
3:43
I can tell you,
3:44
I spent a lot of time.
3:45
And I spent a very,
3:47
uh,
3:47
I think my 2nd round pick on AJ Brown.
3:50
And,
3:50
uh,
3:51
at
3:52
15 minutes into the first game already,
3:55
I'm already,
3:56
uh,
3:56
feeling that one.
3:57
So this is,
3:58
this is just the world of football.
3:59
There's nothing you can do
4:00
about that.
4:01
Uh,
4:01
so we're gonna be doing a draft.
4:02
Keith Malinak joins us as well as Dan Andros,
4:05
friend of the show.
4:05
In fact,
4:06
Dan,
4:06
uh,
4:07
speaking of longtime traditions,
4:08
we've had basically an ongoing conversation about the NFL going on since 3rd grade.
4:13
Uh,
4:13
so,
4:14
Uh,
4:15
that's a very long tradition.
4:16
Um,
4:17
and of course,
4:17
uh,
4:18
Brent,
4:18
uh,
4:19
Evans,
4:19
uh,
4:19
who joins us as well.
4:20
He's president of Predictable Media,
4:22
um,
4:23
and also a Cowboys fan,
4:24
which is a fact I didn't really realize when I hired him.
4:26
Um,
4:27
because,
4:27
uh,
4:27
he would not be employed here today if I did,
4:30
um,
4:30
but he's a Cowboys fan and we'll forgive him for that for at least a couple of hours.
4:34
Um,
4:34
so thanks so much.
4:35
Yeah,
4:36
don't give me that.
4:37
By the way,
4:38
uh,
4:38
the Eagles,
4:38
uh,
4:39
game which I go to every year,
4:40
it's what the,
4:40
the one game I typically go to every year
4:42
is on Thanksgiving this year.
4:43
It's the Thanksgiving game,
4:45
and I don't know,
4:46
like.
4:47
Hm.
4:47
That's a tough one.
4:48
That's a tough one.
4:49
I,
4:49
I love football.
4:50
Would also like to remain married if possible.
4:52
So it's a difficult thing to say.
4:54
I'm going,
4:55
uh,
4:55
bye,
4:56
bye,
4:56
everybody.
4:56
Uh,
4:57
it's Thanksgiving Day.
4:57
I'm going to the Eagles.
4:59
Turkey's in the oven.
5:00
We'll see y'all later.
5:01
Um,
5:01
so let me just give a quick,
5:02
uh,
5:03
breakdown of this for the audience who,
5:04
uh,
5:05
who,
5:05
you know,
5:06
start out at the very beginning.
5:08
We look at the NFL teams.
5:09
There is a number that is kind of produced by Vegas
5:11
that gives you an over-under win total for every team.
5:14
So you might say,
5:15
uh,
5:15
you know,
5:16
the,
5:16
the,
5:16
Uh,
5:17
the Dallas Cowboys 2 wins or whatever it is,
5:19
um,
5:19
and they put this,
5:20
they put a number out there and you,
5:22
it's usually 2,
5:22
they will say 2.5 wins,
5:24
and you say,
5:24
are they gonna go over that or under that.
5:26
The way we did it over on Pat's show is we
5:28
kind of just predict whether it would go over or under,
5:30
and then we'd all compare our records at the end of the season.
5:33
And then the,
5:34
the loser of that would
5:35
buy,
5:36
uh,
5:36
lunch for everyone else.
5:37
And when usually what that meant was like Jeffy would buy us like
5:41
ramen noodles
5:42
or,
5:42
you know,
5:43
it never really worked out well to our favor,
5:45
but,
5:46
uh,
5:46
that was the way that sort of worked.
5:48
We have a prediction market spin on this though.
5:49
It's a little bit different because
5:51
when we did it in the old way,
5:52
you,
5:53
you got stuck with Vegas's number,
5:54
right?
5:54
If it was 5.5 wins,
5:55
you had to pick over and under that number.
5:58
With prediction markets.
5:59
You can pick any number.
6:01
You can really go through like they have a market on,
6:03
you know,
6:03
5 wins,
6:04
6 wins,
6:04
7 wins,
6:05
8 wins,
6:05
all the way up from from 0 or 1 all the way to uh on an undefeated season.
6:10
And you can go through that and it will change throughout the year.
6:13
So it's interesting,
6:13
even though we had a game that was played last night where Seattle,
6:16
uh,
6:16
defeated,
6:17
um,
6:18
the,
6:18
the Patriots,
6:19
it's fine if you want to take one of those teams
6:20
and count that win because it's already priced in the market,
6:23
um,
6:24
uh,
6:24
which is,
6:24
it's kind of automatically reflecting this.
6:26
I mean,
6:26
we could honestly go halfway through the season and do this again because all the,
6:30
all the markets will be updated and we'll have to pick again.
6:32
So it might be fun to do
6:33
again at some point.
6:34
I guess let's not get ahead of ourselves to see if this sucks first,
6:36
but.
6:37
Uh,
6:37
I think it'll be fun.
6:38
Uh,
6:38
that'll be fun.
6:38
So what we'll do is we will,
6:39
uh,
6:40
bring up the,
6:40
the markets here real quick.
6:41
I'll just give you a quick outline of what we're gonna do.
6:43
Um,
6:43
so this is the NFL market page.
6:45
This is Cal She's,
6:45
we're gonna use Cal She's numbers for consistency here.
6:48
You see it's broken up by division.
6:50
Let's go to the AFC,
6:51
uh,
6:51
East total wins.
6:52
Let's kick on Buffalo,
6:53
just,
6:53
uh,
6:53
the top team there.
6:54
Uh,
6:54
12 plus is kind of like the most,
6:56
uh,
6:56
is right across around what they're projecting.
6:58
So you see at the top of the screen there,
7:00
11.6 wins is what
7:02
the markets are
7:04
giving Calci as a forecast,
7:06
right?
7:06
That's what,
7:07
if you look at all the data,
7:08
that's what they're projected to win,
7:09
about 11.6 wins.
7:11
But if you scroll down and you click
7:12
um
7:13
uh more markets,
7:14
you'll get every single number all the way down.
7:17
Obviously,
7:18
you know,
7:18
there's not a lot of money at one win.
7:19
Everyone thinks Buffalo's gonna win one time and there's
7:21
not a lot of money at 17 wins.
7:23
No one thinks that they're gonna go undefeated really.
7:24
But if you kind of scroll down to let's say 11 or 12,
7:27
you see where these numbers are.
7:28
We could pick anything.
7:29
I could say Buffalo over 13 wins.
7:32
If I do that,
7:33
I'll get it at a price,
7:34
a nice price,
7:34
only 31 cents.
7:36
If I,
7:37
if I pick Buffalo over 7 wins,
7:39
for example,
7:40
um,
7:41
7 wins,
7:42
I have to pay 95 cents for that position.
7:45
What we will do here is we'll have a mythical $10 that we will put on each individual,
7:50
um,
7:50
uh,
7:51
pick that we have and we'll track it throughout the season to see
7:54
who does well and
7:55
who embarrasses themselves,
7:57
which,
7:57
you know,
7:58
considering it's my show,
7:59
that's the most likely outcome.
8:00
The most likely outcome is I will come in 4th here.
8:03
Um,
8:03
but that is,
8:03
uh,
8:04
that's just,
8:04
uh,
8:04
this is the way this,
8:05
this,
8:05
can we put a bet on that?
8:07
Yes,
8:07
there's a,
8:08
there is a market,
8:08
I think,
8:09
for that at this point,
8:10
uh,
8:10
Keith.
8:10
OK,
8:10
so I did a,
8:11
uh,
8:11
a randomization of the draft order.
8:14
Um,
8:14
we'll do a little snake draft here.
8:15
We're gonna do 5 picks each.
8:17
Uh,
8:17
start off with Keith Malinak,
8:18
first pick on the board.
8:20
Let me go Brent,
8:21
myself,
8:21
and then Dan,
8:22
you've got the,
8:23
uh,
8:23
you've got the turn there
8:24
with the 4th pick.
8:25
Keith,
8:27
you're welcome.
8:27
Keith,
8:28
why don't you lead us off here.
8:29
Oh,
8:29
by the way,
8:29
just another couple of things.
8:30
You can't pick another person's team.
8:32
Like,
8:33
like if Dan picks Jacksonville over 9,
8:35
Brent can't go Jacksonville over 10.
8:38
Like,
8:38
you know,
8:38
we,
8:38
we wanna have a little bit,
8:39
so you have to go against,
8:40
uh,
8:41
you can go against somebody else's pick,
8:42
but you can't pick the same team on the same side.
8:44
All right,
8:44
Keith,
8:45
start us off.
8:45
So no,
8:46
no Price is right strategy.
8:48
Exactly.
8:48
That's what I wanted to prevent.
8:49
It's just a bunch of weird,
8:51
oh,
8:51
we have like
8:52
Jacksonville + 8 + 9 + 10 and + 11,
8:54
and that's the entire,
8:55
uh,
8:55
game.
8:56
So
8:56
Keith starts off.
8:58
Oh,
8:58
OK,
8:58
uh,
8:59
so I probably am gonna screw this up,
9:01
Stu,
9:01
but if Indianapolis,
9:02
you're gonna scroll down there to the south,
9:04
yeah,
9:04
let's get Indianapolis up here,
9:05
8.5,
9:07
Adam,
9:08
it's in the,
9:08
uh,
9:09
if you,
9:09
yep,
9:09
there we go,
9:09
um,
9:10
and,
9:10
uh,
9:10
8.5,
9:11
you said,
9:11
so yeah,
9:11
it goes to 8,
9:13
and we've got,
9:14
so can.
9:15
So do I have to uh uh pick the actual number of wins,
9:18
or can I just say over 8.5?
9:19
You can see how much risk you wanna take here.
9:21
So you can go 8 or more.
9:22
You can go 7 or more.
9:23
You can go 9 or more,
9:24
whichever one.
9:24
I'm all in on Indy.
9:25
I think their defense is restructured.
9:27
I believe in,
9:28
can't believe I'm saying this,
9:29
Daniel Jones.
9:30
Uh-huh.
9:31
So I'm gonna say,
9:33
I'm gonna say,
9:34
uh.
9:35
Oh boy,
9:36
I'm feeling bold.
9:37
Give me the 12+ wins.
9:39
Wow,
9:40
wow,
9:41
yeah,
9:41
yeah.
9:42
I,
9:42
I'm abusing my number one pick that I could have gotten later,
9:45
but I am so
9:46
into indie this year
9:48
that,
9:48
um,
9:49
uh,
9:49
that I'm,
9:50
I'm comfortable with that
9:52
because I.
9:53
I gotta say,
9:53
Keith,
9:54
I actually thought about going on an under on Indianapolis,
9:57
and part of it,
9:58
part of it was,
9:59
number 1,
10:00
I,
10:00
I never was a Daniel Jones believer in the first place.
10:03
And number 2,
10:04
he's coming off a serious injury here.
10:08
Why,
10:08
why do you,
10:09
why are you a believer?
10:10
I think that their defense is uh much improved,
10:14
and I believe that uh Tyler Warren is the
10:18
He's he's gonna be the next,
10:19
uh,
10:20
Tony Gonzalez.
10:21
Tony Gonzalez,
10:22
yeah,
10:23
I think,
10:23
I think he's got a great career ahead of him,
10:25
and I absolutely believe,
10:26
uh,
10:26
in the Colts,
10:27
and it,
10:27
and look,
10:28
uh,
10:28
it crushes me to say that,
10:30
um,
10:30
because I realized how far on a limb I am with that pick,
10:33
especially since I just burned my number one pick with that.
10:36
But yes,
10:36
I have high hopes for Indy.
10:38
What's interesting about this,
10:39
doing it through a prediction market as opposed to a
10:41
standard over under
10:42
is,
10:43
you know,
10:43
you can go
10:44
1 for 5 and win,
10:46
right?
10:47
Because if you take a long shot,
10:48
you're,
10:48
you,
10:49
you got that at 18 cents,
10:50
by the way.
10:50
So every 18 cents you get,
10:52
you get an 82 cents profit.
10:54
You might wind up,
10:55
uh,
10:55
doing really,
10:56
really well if you just hit 1,
10:57
you can go a bunch of long shots now.
10:59
We have a thing here,
11:01
really,
11:01
Brent is the one who usually is in some sort of weird long shot that he explains to us,
11:05
uh,
11:05
over text messages.
11:07
Um,
11:07
I would not be surprised if that's his strategy.
11:09
Let's see.
11:10
Uh,
11:10
go to the second pick here.
11:11
Uh,
11:11
Brent Evans,
11:12
you're up.
11:14
Yeah,
11:14
no,
11:14
I mean,
11:15
actually,
11:15
I feel ashamed that I'm not going crazy the first round because that's a,
11:20
that's a crazy,
11:21
uh,
11:21
start to the draft.
11:22
I'm actually gonna be a safe,
11:24
you know,
11:25
bet for my first round.
11:26
Uh,
11:27
I'm going to Mileha Stadium to the Denver Broncos,
11:30
10+ wins
11:32
for the,
11:33
uh,
11:33
for the first round pick.
11:34
I'm,
11:34
I'm on the over.
11:35
I think Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos.
11:38
You know,
11:38
they're coming off a very successful
11:41
season last season.
11:42
I can't imagine them not going over 10 wins,
11:45
uh,
11:45
this season.
11:47
Uh,
11:47
I,
11:47
I'd say,
11:48
you get that at 58 cents,
11:49
by the way,
11:49
uh,
11:50
Brent,
11:50
that's your,
11:50
that's your price.
11:51
It's,
11:51
it's an interest,
11:52
honestly that.
11:54
They should have gone to the Super Bowl last year.
11:55
Uh,
11:56
they really should have.
11:57
Uh,
11:57
they were,
11:57
you know,
11:58
minutes away and an injury away from,
12:00
from doing that.
12:01
Uh,
12:02
and,
12:02
you know,
12:03
their defense is really good.
12:04
They add,
12:04
uh,
12:04
Jaylen Waddle to that wide receiver corps,
12:06
which is,
12:07
you know,
12:07
the,
12:07
the,
12:07
the offense should be improved.
12:09
If Nick is healthy,
12:10
there's,
12:10
there's definitely a good argument there.
12:11
OK,
12:12
so,
12:12
uh,
12:12
Brent,
12:13
uh,
12:13
goes with Denver,
12:14
uh,
12:14
over 10 wins or 1010 or more,
12:16
I should say,
12:17
at 58 cents.
12:18
OK,
12:19
my pick is up.
12:20
Uh,
12:21
I'm gonna start trying to just get some profits going.
12:24
Um,
12:24
I,
12:24
I'm not gonna,
12:25
I'm not gonna go crazy here.
12:26
I'm not gonna,
12:26
I'm not going into Keith Malinac,
12:28
uh,
12:28
Daniel Jones is the savior of the NFL talk.
12:30
We're not getting there yet.
12:32
I'm gonna start it off here.
12:34
Um,
12:34
give me Houston.
12:35
Uh,
12:35
Houston is a team,
12:36
I,
12:36
I'm a big believer in that,
12:38
uh,
12:38
in that defense.
12:39
Uh,
12:39
you mentioned Indianapolis's defense.
12:41
Houston's defense might be the best defense
12:43
in the NFL.
12:44
They're well-coached,
12:45
um,
12:46
you know,
12:46
uh,
12:47
CJ Stroud's been up and down.
12:49
The offense might be a little shaky,
12:50
but David Montgomery at running back.
12:52
I like the improvements they've made,
12:54
uh,
12:54
there.
12:55
Uh,
12:55
and I think honestly,
12:56
that defense just gives them
12:58
a real,
12:59
uh,
12:59
floor.
13:00
So let's go to Houston.
13:01
Uh,
13:01
let's give our choices here.
13:03
I'm gonna let you scan over the choices here real quick.
13:05
Give me around,
13:06
let's see,
13:06
I'm gonna look around.
13:09
Uh,
13:10
no.
13:11
I'll go Houston.
13:14
10 plus wins,
13:16
yes,
13:17
at 62 cents.
13:19
Uh,
13:20
Houston.
13:21
10 +
13:23
62 cents for my first pick.
13:28
Uh,
13:28
in the,
13:29
uh,
13:29
draft,
13:30
and now Dan Andros is up.
13:32
Uh,
13:32
you got 2 here,
13:34
uh,
13:34
Dan,
13:34
to play with,
13:35
uh,
13:36
right in a row.
13:37
What do you got?
13:38
Oh,
13:38
this is,
13:39
this is standard for me,
13:40
by the way,
13:40
in a draft.
13:41
I just get a terrible draft position.
13:43
Uh,
13:44
but
13:44
here we go.
13:45
Uh,
13:45
I am gonna start off with the Dolphins,
13:49
and I'm gonna go,
13:51
uh,
13:51
4.
13:53
Wins,
13:55
yes,
13:56
I know they're terrible,
13:58
but 4 wins is a very low bar
14:00
for a terrible team that gets to play the Jets twice,
14:03
so.
14:04
Uh,
14:05
and I,
14:05
and I actually like Malik Willis.
14:07
Uh,
14:07
I think Malik Willis is their quarterback,
14:09
right?
14:09
Yes,
14:09
he is.
14:10
Um,
14:11
we'll see how
14:11
long I mean,
14:12
he,
14:12
he hasn't had a lot of like actual
14:14
time,
14:15
but every time he's in,
14:15
he looks incredible.
14:17
And so,
14:17
uh,
14:18
you know,
14:18
he can run.
14:19
I don't know,
14:19
I like him.
14:20
So I feel like they can scrape together 4 wins.
14:22
I think that's at 55
14:24
something like that.
14:25
So I'm going Dolphins,
14:26
yes,
14:26
yeah,
14:27
I got you yes at 57 here,
14:28
Dan,
14:29
57 cents
14:30
as you jump in.
14:31
Um,
14:32
uh,
14:32
for your first pick.
14:33
It's interesting.
14:33
The Miami thing is,
14:34
is
14:35
they could be the worst team in the league,
14:36
but like usually what
14:38
when everyone believes there's the worst team in the league,
14:40
usually what happens is they squeak out a few wins
14:42
and they get over 4 most of the time anyway.
14:44
It's some other team no one saw coming that
14:46
has the total disaster and can't get there.
14:48
So 17-game season,
14:50
they only need to go 4 and 13,
14:52
and you're getting that at 57 cents.
14:54
That's not bad.
14:55
That's not bad.
14:56
And you're,
14:56
as you point out,
14:57
you get the Jets twice,
14:58
which is nice.
14:59
And,
14:59
and,
15:00
and they've got two young receivers that are really good.
15:02
I was just looking them up.
15:03
Uh,
15:03
I'm,
15:04
I'm Chris Bell and,
15:05
uh,
15:05
Caleb Douglas.
15:06
I think that's a great pick,
15:07
man.
15:08
I know you know,
15:09
and I,
15:09
and if I would have actually known those receivers,
15:11
that would probably would have been a really intelligent pick by me,
15:13
but that's the first time I've ever heard of them.
15:15
So I'm pissed because I really wanted them in fantasy in my draft,
15:18
and I.
15:18
So that's why they were
15:20
exactly.
15:21
Bell,
15:21
Bell and yeah,
15:22
Douglas,
15:22
both of them are like
15:24
very popular like.
15:25
14th round picks because you never one of them's probably gonna be good.
15:29
So,
15:29
uh,
15:30
yes,
15:31
and that's where I was gonna draft him,
15:32
but my buddies got him in the 13th round.
15:35
Smart,
15:36
smart,
15:36
smart.
15:36
OK,
15:37
Dan,
15:37
you got another one on the board.
15:38
I got another one.
15:39
I'm gonna,
15:40
I'm actually gonna reach for this one a little because it's not,
15:43
it's not a sexy one.
15:44
It's,
15:44
it's kind of,
15:45
you know,
15:45
I think
15:46
close to a sure thing here,
15:48
but I wanna,
15:49
you know,
15:49
lock in a little bit of,
15:51
uh,
15:51
a little bit of stacking some wins here.
15:53
I'm gonna go
15:55
Bills,
15:56
yes,
15:57
at 9 wins.
16:00
It gets at 85 cents.
16:02
All right,
16:02
let's see that market right now.
16:03
Look at the official price here.
16:05
Buffalo,
16:06
uh,
16:07
what was it?
16:07
9 wins you said,
16:09
uh,
16:09
9,
16:09
and they've done this over and over again.
16:11
Yes,
16:11
uh,
16:11
what is that?
16:12
80,
16:12
83.
16:13
Adam,
16:13
is that for the yes?
16:14
Sorry,
16:14
my eyes are terrible.
16:16
Uh,
16:16
yes,
16:16
83 cents and you get a little discount,
16:18
83 cents.
16:19
There
16:19
we go.
16:20
Yes,
16:20
over 9,
16:21
so.
16:22
That's you guys in 100 picks.
16:26
Poor Dan.
16:27
I had this,
16:28
uh,
16:28
same situation in my fantasy draft this year,
16:30
and I kept looking at him like,
16:31
no one's gonna make it to me.
16:33
And you know who made it to me?
16:34
AJ Brown.
16:35
Uh,
16:36
so,
16:36
uh,
16:36
that was,
16:37
uh,
16:38
Didn't,
16:38
didn't work well,
16:39
didn't work out well,
16:40
I will say.
16:40
OK.
16:41
Uh,
16:41
let's see,
16:42
uh,
16:42
9 wins and 83
16:45
cents.
16:46
OK.
16:46
I am up now in the next round of the draft,
16:48
and I,
16:48
you know,
16:49
we've,
16:49
we,
16:49
there was a little bashing of this team
16:51
that was going on.
16:52
Uh,
16:53
and that's,
16:53
it's a little bit of a,
16:54
it's,
16:56
uh,
16:56
you know,
16:56
I'm,
16:57
I'm gonna,
16:57
I'm gonna dive in.
16:58
And,
16:58
and normally this is a terrible idea.
17:00
In fact,
17:00
it's been a terrible idea
17:02
for the past,
17:02
I believe,
17:03
147 consecutive seasons.
17:06
But this is the year,
17:08
I think this,
17:09
this streak will be broken.
17:12
I'm going to look at the New York Jets.
17:14
The New York Jets,
17:16
uh,
17:17
I would point out the opposite of your observation,
17:19
Dan,
17:20
that,
17:20
uh,
17:20
they play the Dolphins twice.
17:23
So
17:23
probably they'll split
17:25
games.
17:26
Somebody's taking the heat off me.
17:27
I appreciate that.
17:29
I'm not gonna go too crazy.
17:30
I'm gonna go New York Jets.
17:31
Give me that Jets market.
17:32
Give me,
17:33
um,
17:33
let's look at around 8 wins.
17:35
What do we got for about 8 wins right now because I want to go with something a little,
17:38
a little aggressive here.
17:39
I like it.
17:40
88 wins at 28 cents.
17:44
Uh,
17:44
that is a pick that I'm almost certainly going to regret,
17:48
but I,
17:49
I think
17:50
they've got a lot of talent
17:52
on the offense right now.
17:53
I mean,
17:53
they really do.
17:54
They,
17:54
they've got a lot of good offensive,
17:56
and they add anything new.
17:58
They've always,
17:59
they keep every year,
17:59
it's like,
18:00
wow,
18:00
look who they added.
18:01
And then they managed to scrape up like 3 wins.
18:04
Hey,
18:04
who does Sauce Gardner play for now?
18:06
Uh,
18:07
he's,
18:07
well,
18:07
that's true.
18:08
He is on Indianapolis.
18:09
Uh,
18:09
he is.
18:10
Now Indianapolis won't have any draft picks for the next 14 years because of that,
18:13
but,
18:14
uh,
18:14
that is true.
18:15
He is on,
18:16
uh,
18:16
no,
18:16
it's true.
18:16
I mean,
18:17
I don't think,
18:17
look,
18:17
I,
18:17
their defense is decent.
18:19
Their offense,
18:20
I think is going to be improved.
18:21
I think there's going to be a noticeable improvement.
18:23
I,
18:24
you know,
18:24
Geno Smith,
18:25
it was absolutely horrible last year,
18:27
but that's also because no,
18:28
he's old and no one could,
18:30
they could not block anybody.
18:31
They have an actually decent,
18:32
uh,
18:32
line.
18:33
Their running game is pretty good.
18:34
They have real talent in the wide receiving corps.
18:37
Young tight end coming up as well.
18:39
I know it sounds crazy.
18:41
I know it's,
18:41
I,
18:41
I,
18:42
it's,
18:42
it's one of those things that I know I will regret and,
18:44
and this will be posted on social media later on,
18:46
but I have the Jets.
18:47
Yes,
18:47
this is serious,
18:48
8 wins or more at 28 cents.
18:52
Uh,
18:52
next up,
18:52
Brent,
18:53
your 2nd round pick.
18:55
I feel like we're punching down in this draft,
18:57
taking on the Miami Dolphins and the Jets,
18:59
and
19:00
I'm going actually,
19:01
uh,
19:02
to the West Coast
19:03
Los Angeles Chargers.
19:04
I'm gonna take a contrarian position on their wins,
19:08
so I'm gonna say no
19:10
for 10+ wins this season.
19:13
They've got a
19:14
horrendous schedule.
19:16
They've got new personnel.
19:18
They're,
19:19
they,
19:19
I mean,
19:19
Herbert's awesome as a quarterback,
19:21
but they've got a lot of challenges.
19:24
I don't know that they get the win,
19:27
uh,
19:27
column as much as everyone thinks they're gonna get it,
19:30
so I'm going
19:31
no
19:32
on 10+ wins
19:33
in the,
19:34
uh,
19:35
Los Angeles Chargers
19:36
market.
19:37
45 cents on that price.
19:39
Uh,
19:39
that's,
19:39
it's an interesting one.
19:40
I,
19:40
I really thought of going the other way.
19:42
I like the Chargers.
19:43
I like the idea of Justin Herbert with Mike McDaniel,
19:46
like that,
19:46
that combination sounds like a really fun one,
19:49
to me.
19:50
Uh,
19:50
but,
19:51
uh,
19:51
I,
19:51
I get what there's a lot of hype.
19:53
And I,
19:53
I will say I've made a lot of money on prediction markets just saying no to hype.
19:57
Whenever hype happens,
19:58
just say no,
19:59
and then generally speaking,
20:00
it winds up paying playing out at the end.
20:02
Uh,
20:02
so we will see if that,
20:03
uh,
20:04
continues here in a second.
20:05
Um,
20:05
Keith,
20:05
with one more pick and then we're gonna take a quick
20:07
break and come back with the rest of our draft.
20:09
We are in round number 2.
20:11
The 8th overall pick goes to Keith Malinek.
20:14
OK.
20:14
Well,
20:14
Stu,
20:15
you know better than anyone uh how terrible I
20:17
am at managing my risk with my football investments.
20:20
But um if you guys thought that my uh Indianapolis uh uh guess was uh gonna be crazy,
20:27
uh,
20:27
go back to the AFC South because
20:29
even though Indy is gonna get 12 wins,
20:31
they're not gonna win the AFC South.
20:33
The Jacksonville Jaguars are gonna win the AFC South with the same.
20:37
12 and 5 record.
20:39
So give me 12 wins.
20:40
What I don't even care what the number is.
20:41
I don't care.
20:42
Just give it to me.
20:43
What does that mean?
20:44
What?
20:44
76 cents?
20:45
Yeah,
20:45
give it
20:46
right there.
20:47
So I'm taking Jacksonville 12 wins.
20:49
Yeah,
20:49
you're gonna get it at 26 cents,
20:50
or yeah,
20:51
26 cents,
20:52
Keith.
20:53
I like it.
20:53
I'm sorry.
20:54
Yeah,
20:54
yeah,
20:54
yeah.
20:54
I'm sorry.
20:55
I like this.
20:55
This is Keith is becoming the long shot king so far,
20:58
which is,
20:59
uh,
20:59
I don't know if I saw that coming.
21:00
If Keith connects,
21:01
I mean we're toast.
21:03
Now,
21:03
I will say,
21:04
uh,
21:04
Keith,
21:05
uh,
21:05
does,
21:06
we,
21:06
we do have many,
21:07
um,
21:08
many conversations about how Keith
21:10
will take a like 1000 to 1 shot
21:13
and he'll be,
21:14
yes,
21:15
he'll be,
21:15
he'll be,
21:16
you know,
21:17
minutes away from hitting it and then he texts me like frantically,
21:20
how do I hedge my position in this?
21:22
My gosh,
21:23
it is,
21:24
it is the greatest story ever
21:25
how you got me a $20 bet to turn into a $6000 parley,
21:29
sir.
21:30
Thank you.
21:30
No,
21:31
look,
21:31
uh,
21:31
you know,
21:32
this is,
21:32
this is what I do for people.
21:33
I mean this,
21:34
I hope you're a paid subscriber,
21:35
Keith,
21:35
of uh PredictableShow.com because we're trying
21:37
to pay for people's subscriptions.
21:39
OK.
21:40
All right,
21:40
I wanna take a quick break,
21:41
come back on the other side.
21:41
We have a couple more,
21:42
uh,
21:42
rounds to go
21:43
in our prediction market draft,
21:45
uh,
21:46
and,
21:46
uh,
21:46
it is a,
21:47
uh,
21:47
it's great,
21:47
uh,
21:48
hanging out with all you guys.
21:49
Uh,
21:49
we have more on predictableShow.com as well.
21:51
We're gonna be doing so,
21:52
are we doing this,
21:52
Brent,
21:53
uh,
21:53
where we're gonna have people be able to kind
21:55
of participate in this contest that we're doing?
21:58
Yeah,
21:58
Joel should be in the chat asking people for their um
22:02
picks as well,
22:03
and we're gonna try to put together a draft board from our paid subscribers
22:06
and
22:07
do something fun with them to,
22:08
to maybe have uh something on the line for the season
22:12
and whoever thinks who who everybody thinks they're gonna
22:15
pick and who's gonna be the over under,
22:17
put it in the chat.
22:18
Joel should be in there monitoring it and um let's get them all in there and
22:22
Yeah,
22:22
have some fun this season.
22:23
They'll,
22:23
they'll give you the,
22:23
uh,
22:24
the instructions on how to do it in the chat,
22:25
but basically you're gonna do the same thing we're doing.
22:27
You're gonna pick 5 teams,
22:28
uh,
22:28
and,
22:28
and pick your prediction market position,
22:30
and then,
22:31
uh,
22:31
you don't have to spend any money.
22:32
We'll kind of calculate it all for you,
22:34
and at the end of the season,
22:35
we'll have some,
22:35
uh,
22:35
prizes for,
22:36
uh,
22:37
the people that,
22:37
uh,
22:37
win,
22:38
and maybe,
22:38
maybe the person who finishes in last too,
22:40
cause just,
22:41
just cause it's,
22:42
it'll be sad,
22:43
uh,
22:43
but
22:43
that'll,
22:44
that'll happen as well.
22:45
Uh,
22:45
back in a second,
22:45
predictableshow.com.
23:04
All right,
23:04
predictable with Stu.
23:05
It's the prediction market NFL
23:07
draft.
23:08
We're doing wins and losses.
23:09
You know,
23:10
what number of wins will each team get?
23:13
We've got a great panel,
23:14
uh,
23:14
here.
23:15
We're in round 3 of the draft and Keith Malinak is up for another
23:19
pick.
23:20
Keith,
23:20
where are you going?
23:22
Well,
23:22
I printed up all of these teams and the over-unders and all that good stuff.
23:25
I don't recognize this team on here,
23:27
uh,
23:27
the Washington Commanders.
23:29
I'm not sure who that is,
23:30
but,
23:30
uh,
23:30
the Washington Redskins,
23:32
uh,
23:33
they will,
23:33
uh,
23:34
you can give me them.
23:35
What,
23:35
what is that,
23:36
uh,
23:36
put,
23:36
put me down for 10 wins.
23:37
I wanna see what that is.
23:39
10 wins on the Commanders
23:40
is,
23:41
uh,
23:42
let's see,
23:43
22 cents.
23:44
Yeah,
23:44
it's all or nothing for these picks boys.
23:46
In fact,
23:46
they're the NFC East,
23:48
uh,
23:48
uh,
23:48
champions.
23:49
So sorry to tell you that.
23:50
Stu and I'm excited about that.
23:53
Mhm.
23:53
Mhm.
23:53
Wow,
23:54
I love that I can make that prediction
23:56
among a Redskins fan,
23:58
an Eagles fan,
23:59
and a Cowboys fan.
24:00
That's a lead pipe lock.
24:03
Washington wins the NFC East.
24:06
Again,
24:07
you have some interesting takes on the NFL issue.
24:09
Like,
24:09
I'm kind of like out on Washington.
24:11
I,
24:11
I,
24:11
I,
24:11
Antonio Williams,
24:12
man,
24:13
that,
24:13
that wide receiver,
24:14
he's gonna be good for them.
24:15
I think that OK,
24:16
is the problem is,
24:18
is Jaden Daniels going to be dead with that offensive line.
24:20
I think that's more of the concern on that team.
24:23
Uh,
24:23
but I like to take 22 cents,
24:25
another good price,
24:26
uh,
24:26
10 and 10 wins isn't,
24:28
I mean,
24:28
they don't need to be a juggernaut here,
24:30
uh,
24:30
10 wins.
24:31
Uh,
24:31
they get to their 22 sets.
24:33
All right,
24:34
Brent,
24:34
uh,
24:35
you are up next.
24:36
So we go from Commanders,
24:37
Redskins
24:38
over to the Cowboys fan.
24:40
What do you got?
24:42
Uh,
24:42
I'm going to the NFC South to the Falcons,
24:46
Atlanta Falcons to the
24:49
I'm,
24:50
I'm,
24:50
I'm taking a very strong position on them not having a good season.
24:54
So,
24:55
um,
24:56
I'm saying,
24:58
I'm saying no
24:59
on
25:00
that's a strong position.
25:02
That's just a typical
25:04
season.
25:05
I'm saying no on 5+ wins.
25:07
So I'm saying they're not,
25:09
they're not even gonna.
25:10
I think they've got problems in Atlanta.
25:12
That's 31 cents,
25:13
by the way.
25:14
No on 5 plus wins.
25:16
Keith,
25:17
as a resident Falcons fan,
25:18
how do you feel about this?
25:20
Uh,
25:20
what did,
25:21
what did,
25:21
what did Brent just say?
25:22
I think they got problems in Atlanta.
25:23
You can copy and paste that every year,
25:25
man.
25:27
I just,
25:27
I,
25:28
I can't,
25:28
I,
25:28
I,
25:29
you know,
25:29
every,
25:29
every season you're thinking they may have something put together,
25:33
but then
25:34
I just,
25:35
I,
25:35
I can't,
25:36
I can't figure out where they go wrong.
25:38
They go wrong pretty much every season
25:40
lately,
25:40
but,
25:40
uh,
25:41
curse.
25:43
Yeah,
25:44
well,
25:45
yeah.
25:45
Well,
25:45
let's,
25:46
uh,
25:46
let's just stick with the no on 5+ wins.
25:49
Uh,
25:49
you know,
25:50
it's,
25:50
uh,
25:50
uh,
25:51
Keith,
25:51
it's
25:51
usually Keith is the one taking Atlanta under,
25:54
uh,
25:54
uh,
25:54
in these competitions.
25:56
Uh,
25:56
he is,
25:56
you know,
25:57
that
25:57
it is a,
25:57
it's a fascinating one because
25:59
their quarterback
26:00
situation is,
26:01
I,
26:01
I've never seen this happen before,
26:03
Keith,
26:03
where they're waiting until like the day before
26:05
the season starts to finally tell us,
26:07
I guess Tua is going to be the one starting.
26:09
That's correct.
26:10
Uh,
26:11
Pennex isn't even,
26:12
uh,
26:12
gonna be dressed for the first week or two at least.
26:15
But Jack Strand,
26:16
the third stringer,
26:17
he's gonna be your main starter this year,
26:18
I guarantee it.
26:19
But,
26:19
but that's what the Falcons needed.
26:21
They needed to go and hire someone from the Cleveland
26:23
Browns to come in and help make their team better.
26:26
Nice move,
26:27
ATL.
26:27
Nice move.
26:30
I'm glad somebody picked it.
26:31
And right,
26:31
right into the beer immediately after talking about it.
26:34
How else do you react?
26:36
Yeah.
26:36
That's right.
26:37
Yeah,
26:38
it's so true.
26:38
OK,
26:39
um,
26:39
I,
26:40
it's interesting you say that sometimes things go wrong
26:42
because that this has to do with my next pick.
26:44
Uh,
26:44
I am up next here in the,
26:45
uh,
26:46
in the draft.
26:48
A lot of people are talking about how everything's going to go right for this team.
26:52
A lot of people are telling me over and over again
26:55
that this is a team that's a juggernaut.
26:57
They're going to destroy everybody.
26:59
They're going to dominate the entire NFL.
27:01
And look,
27:02
it's a very talented team.
27:05
But the Los Angeles Rams
27:07
have,
27:08
I would argue,
27:09
a real possibility
27:11
of having a,
27:13
uh,
27:13
a,
27:13
a down season from expectations.
27:16
And the reason I say that.
27:17
And they have a ton of talent,
27:19
but they are depending on a lot
27:21
of old guys,
27:23
first of all,
27:24
a lot of old guys.
27:25
They've got a lot of people in there.
27:26
I mean,
27:27
you know,
27:27
we've got one guy coming back from 3
27:29
years of retirement that everyone's just penciling in
27:32
for being,
27:32
you know,
27:33
the all-pro he's been for most of his career.
27:35
You have Matthew Stafford,
27:36
who did win the MVP last year and is a great quarterback and a Hall of Famer.
27:41
He's also 38 years old.
27:43
And if I remember right,
27:44
it was just last year.
27:45
Everyone was telling me he,
27:46
he might not make it through the season because he has back problems.
27:49
You have their number one incredible wide receiver.
27:53
God only knows what's going on with Puka these days.
27:55
I gotta say,
27:55
I don't,
27:56
I don't know what's going on with him.
27:57
Every other day,
27:58
it's either an injury or some weird,
28:00
you know,
28:00
legal or,
28:01
uh,
28:02
something,
28:02
he does something stupid on social media.
28:04
I don't know what's going on with Puka.
28:05
I love him,
28:06
but I don't know what's going on there.
28:08
I think there's just,
28:09
and it's the other thing about the Rams is the way they're built.
28:11
They are incredibly
28:13
top-heavy.
28:14
They have an incredible amount of talent
28:16
if everyone stays healthy,
28:18
but I've watched the NFL for a while,
28:20
guys.
28:21
I watched the game last night
28:22
where Sam Darnold,
28:23
the Super Bowl winning quarterback,
28:24
was injured,
28:25
uh,
28:26
5 plays into it.
28:27
AJ Brown had 3 catches,
28:29
and now he's out.
28:30
You don't go through the whole season
28:33
without injuries.
28:34
I just feel like this team is actually vulnerable to take a difficult,
28:37
uh,
28:37
situation.
28:37
And then I'll throw this last,
28:38
this last part into it.
28:42
What is going to happen with a team
28:44
that has to fly from here
28:47
to Australia
28:49
to play their first game and then immediately turn
28:52
around and get on a plane and fly back?
28:53
I have no idea.
28:54
Their entire
28:55
all their brains may be scrambled,
28:57
uh,
28:57
after that experience.
28:59
They play in a tough division.
29:01
They've got a tough schedule.
29:02
I mean,
29:03
Seattle's really good.
29:04
San Francisco's got some talent.
29:06
I just feel like,
29:07
you know,
29:07
what people are putting this,
29:08
like something 1314,
29:10
15 wins,
29:10
I don't think they're gonna get there.
29:12
Give me this board here and I'll pick a,
29:13
I'll pick a win total,
29:14
uh,
29:14
Adam,
29:15
on the Los Angeles Rams.
29:17
Uh,
29:17
I mean,
29:17
the prices you can get on this.
29:18
Look at,
29:19
look at these.
29:20
Uh,
29:21
I mean,
29:21
I am tempted to go low and get a,
29:24
get a main win,
29:25
but I'm just gonna,
29:25
I'm gonna keep it kind of safe and,
29:27
and I think I'm gonna be safe here.
29:28
I'm gonna take no 13+ wins
29:32
at 58 cents.
29:34
I think that's really good value.
29:35
There's only 3 or 4 teams tops that go over,
29:39
you know,
29:39
win over 13 games every year anyway.
29:42
Uh,
29:42
Rams could easily be one of them.
29:43
If everything goes right,
29:44
they will be.
29:45
But I do think there's vulnerability there.
29:47
That's my pick.
29:48
Rams,
29:49
uh,
29:49
13 plus
29:50
no,
29:52
uh,
29:52
at 58 cents.
29:54
It's almost like you're,
29:55
you're blaming
29:56
their head issues on going to Australia,
29:58
like they're gonna get CTE from the,
30:00
the flight there and back.
30:01
Well,
30:02
you know,
30:03
let's,
30:03
let,
30:03
let's keep the NFL going and yes,
30:05
let's blame the long flights,
30:06
uh,
30:07
without,
30:07
without that blame,
30:09
who knows how long this league lasts these days.
30:11
OK,
30:11
uh,
30:11
Dan,
30:12
you're at the back of the 3rd round.
30:14
You got 2 in a row here.
30:15
I'm not sure how,
30:16
uh,
30:16
Keith Malinna is going to feel about this pick,
30:18
but,
30:18
uh,
30:19
I am going in the opposite direction of Mr.
30:22
Brent,
30:23
and,
30:23
uh,
30:24
I am going Falcons,
30:26
but I am,
30:28
uh,
30:28
gonna go yes
30:30
at 7 wins.
30:32
And,
30:33
uh,
30:33
and here's why,
30:34
I mean.
30:35
Yes,
30:36
to Keith,
30:37
to Keith's point,
30:38
you know,
30:38
they,
30:38
they have problems every year,
30:39
but they always seem to manage to still somehow.
30:42
Win 7 or 8 games,
30:44
you know,
30:44
or 9 games.
30:45
They're just kind of,
30:46
it's sort of actually how the Redskins are.
30:48
We probably live similar fan lives in a lot of ways.
30:50
The Redskins like always,
30:51
yeah,
30:51
they might be decent,
30:52
and then they win 7 games.
30:54
You're like,
30:55
OK,
30:56
uh,
30:56
and then,
30:57
you know,
30:58
they'll throw in a stinker here every now and then.
30:59
Anyway,
31:00
I think Falcons
31:01
will somehow squeak out
31:03
more than
31:04
7 wins or more.
31:05
So put me at 7,
31:06
yes there.
31:06
Where,
31:06
where are you on the Falcons?
31:07
I know obviously you're a depressed fan,
31:09
uh,
31:09
Keith,
31:10
but where,
31:10
where are you as far as win totals on the Falcons this year?
31:13
Oh gosh,
31:14
um,
31:15
I'm saying,
31:17
uh,
31:17
let's go 9 and 8,
31:18
OK,
31:19
but,
31:19
uh,
31:20
but they won't make the playoffs.
31:21
Remember last year
31:22
they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with a month left,
31:25
and then they finished in a statistical 3-way tie for first,
31:29
but they had already been mathematically eliminated.
31:30
That's the Dan's point.
31:32
Yes,
31:32
they're gonna suck,
31:33
then they're gonna rally.
31:34
They're gonna get,
31:34
get it together.
31:35
Jack Strand is gonna be awesome,
31:37
but it's gonna be too little,
31:38
too late
31:39
for 9 and 8,
31:40
and,
31:41
uh,
31:41
for some reason.
31:42
I still think that's gonna miss the playoffs,
31:43
um,
31:44
and one just bit of clarification here,
31:45
uh,
31:46
Dan,
31:46
you mentioned your,
31:46
your fan experience being a lot like Keith's.
31:48
I will say the Redskins have won multiple Super Bowls.
31:50
I just wanted to,
31:51
we don't need that.
31:52
Well,
31:53
I'm a guest in your home.
31:54
We don't need that.
31:56
I think I was also,
31:57
uh,
31:57
you know,
31:58
less than 10 last time they won.
32:00
So,
32:01
and I'm,
32:01
I'm old.
32:02
I don't know if anyone's been counting,
32:03
but well,
32:04
that you have in common with Brent,
32:05
uh,
32:05
who hasn't seen a Super Bowl.
32:07
Since he was about 4,
32:07
watch it,
32:08
buddy,
32:08
watch it,
32:09
buddy.
32:09
Oh yeah,
32:10
that's right.
32:11
I
32:11
mean,
32:12
there's only one success story in this screen right now.
32:15
There's one.
32:16
There's one in the last 20 years.
32:18
Uh,
32:18
there's one,
32:18
and it's right here.
32:19
Yes,
32:20
the Philadelphia Eagles.
32:21
I know you all hate it,
32:22
but you have to say
32:23
we had 40 years of their heads for so long.
32:26
We had that hanging over your head for so long where we could just go,
32:29
yeah,
32:29
but how many Super Bowls do you have?
32:31
And then.
32:32
At least in recent memory it's gone well,
32:35
to be clear,
32:35
I mean,
32:36
uh,
32:36
I don't want to go back and count Super Bowls with Brent,
32:38
uh,
32:39
if you want to go all time,
32:40
that would not be good.
32:41
OK,
32:41
uh,
32:41
Dan,
32:42
you're up next.
32:42
So I,
32:43
one more next pick.
32:44
Uh,
32:44
I'm actually gonna go here with some,
32:46
some history,
32:47
and,
32:47
uh,
32:47
I'm gonna
32:49
say I don't think nobody took Giants yet,
32:50
right?
32:50
I'm going Giants,
32:52
no.
32:53
Uh,
32:54
Giants just,
32:55
uh,
32:55
you know,
32:55
similar to the,
32:56
I don't know what it is with New York,
32:57
but,
32:57
uh,
32:58
they have a hard time
33:00
being successful,
33:01
uh,
33:01
lately.
33:02
So I'm gonna go Giants no on,
33:04
I think it's 8 wins.
33:05
What am I getting 8 wins at?
33:07
I think 50 some cents is what I was looking at last time.
33:10
No,
33:10
54 cents.
33:12
55 ticked up a little on me,
33:13
but yeah,
33:14
that's,
33:14
that's fine.
33:15
Um,
33:16
yep,
33:17
I got the notes.
33:18
All right,
33:18
no on 8 wins,
33:19
54 cents.
33:20
OK,
33:20
uh,
33:21
look,
33:21
I was just,
33:21
uh,
33:21
praising my team.
33:23
I,
33:23
I like to do that,
33:24
uh,
33:24
with the Eagles.
33:24
I like to celebrate when,
33:25
when they have victor victories.
33:27
That being said,
33:29
that being said,
33:30
I,
33:31
uh,
33:31
I,
33:32
I have a couple of reasons to,
33:33
to be no on them at some level.
33:35
And number one is a,
33:37
is just as hedging my life.
33:38
I can't,
33:39
I,
33:39
I need,
33:40
I'd rather be successful here.
33:42
At least I'll have something if the Eagles actually suck.
33:44
I don't think though that the Eagles,
33:46
um,
33:46
I,
33:47
they have a floor
33:49
because their defense is going to be very good.
33:50
I,
33:50
I,
33:51
I,
33:51
I,
33:51
I think,
33:52
um,
33:52
you know,
33:52
they had one of the top defenses the last couple of years,
33:55
even last year when their offense was terrible,
33:57
their defense was pretty good.
33:58
So I,
33:58
I,
33:59
I don't think
34:00
catastrophe is happening,
34:01
uh,
34:02
this year,
34:02
but give me the list on the Philadelphia Eagles if you would,
34:05
uh,
34:06
and,
34:06
uh,
34:07
Adam,
34:07
and I will look at these prices because I think,
34:10
I,
34:10
I'm thinking.
34:12
You can get,
34:13
let's say,
34:13
you know what 8 wins is 18 cents,
34:15
know at 9 wins 25,
34:17
know at 10 wins 39.
34:22
I think I'll do,
34:23
I,
34:23
I think I'll go.
34:26
I'm tempted to go 10.
34:30
Uh,
34:30
I'm gonna be safe and go no on 11 wins or more
34:33
at 52 cents.
34:35
Um,
34:35
trying to,
34:36
you know,
34:36
like this is,
34:37
it goes with my investment strategy on prediction markets.
34:40
Like I,
34:40
I like to have a,
34:41
a,
34:41
a win or two cushion
34:43
from what I think it will really be.
34:45
The same thing that goes on with political markets.
34:46
Like if it's a 2 or 3
34:48
point margin,
34:49
I think it's gonna be,
34:49
I'd rather have it more like 8 or 9 in case
34:51
there's a mistake in the polls or God knows what.
34:54
So I will go no for Philly.
34:56
On,
34:57
uh,
34:58
on,
34:58
uh,
34:58
11 wins
35:00
at 52
35:02
cents.
35:03
All right,
35:03
uh,
35:03
Brent,
35:04
you are up.
35:04
I did I steal any,
35:06
Keith,
35:06
did I steal your,
35:07
uh,
35:07
no position on the Eagles?
35:08
Oh gosh,
35:08
I don't like that because
35:09
you're doing it not because of a life
35:11
hedge because you think they're going to collapse,
35:12
which is not good.
35:13
Um,
35:15
uh,
35:15
but,
35:16
uh,
35:17
Saquan's old and busted.
35:18
I don't know.
35:19
I think Saquan's got a bounce.
35:20
I got,
35:20
I have a,
35:21
a couple of shares.
35:22
I'll just reveal this couple shares
35:24
on Saquan.
35:25
Uh,
35:26
winning
35:27
the rushing championship again.
35:28
I think there's a bounceback possibility there.
35:30
It's just that that offensive line
35:33
for the Eagles is really,
35:36
really risky.
35:36
Like they're just like I was saying with the Rams in the past,
35:38
buddy.
35:39
Yeah,
35:39
they're living in the past.
35:40
I gotta say,
35:41
as much as I,
35:41
I can't stand you right now,
35:42
Brent,
35:42
you're totally,
35:43
you're totally right on that offensive line
35:46
because they got,
35:47
they have guys who are injured.
35:48
They have got,
35:48
you know,
35:49
Lane Johnson is,
35:49
you know,
35:50
is probably his last year,
35:51
uh,
35:52
other guys who can barely seem to walk anymore.
35:55
It's not the offensive line it used to be,
35:58
but I,
35:58
I do think there's a bounce back for Saquan potentially.
36:00
Stu,
36:00
you've not been listening to local sports Philadelphia radio talk radio like,
36:05
like I have.
36:06
I live in the Philadelphia area,
36:07
and,
36:07
uh,
36:08
they have already chalked up a Super Bowl here.
36:10
I don't,
36:10
I don't,
36:11
yeah,
36:12
they'll do that until they lose one game and then they'll want
36:14
Siriani and Hurts,
36:16
you know,
36:16
blown out.
36:16
Now it's Super Bowl.
36:18
Yeah,
36:18
that's the way.
36:18
Your offensive line is better at podcasts than they are at the offensive line.
36:24
Wow.
36:26
Uh,
36:27
you know what,
36:27
that,
36:27
that might be true,
36:28
but they're kind of Hall of Fame in both,
36:30
I will say,
36:31
at least the Kelsey,
36:32
uh,
36:32
the Kelsey situation,
36:33
they're very,
36:34
very good
36:34
at both podcasting and being a center in the NFL.
36:37
Of course,
36:38
he's now retired
36:39
and his,
36:39
his,
36:39
his brother married Taylor Swift.
36:41
OK,
36:41
go ahead.
36:43
OK,
36:43
well,
36:44
I told
36:45
I told Keith and Dan before the show,
36:46
actually,
36:47
to my right is AT&T Stadium.
36:48
I'm,
36:48
I'm in Arlington,
36:50
uh,
36:50
and
36:51
I'm looking over at Rangers Ballpark right across the street.
36:54
So I've got,
36:55
I've got aura
36:56
coming my way from AT&T Stadium.
36:59
And it's nothing but good vibes for me and my team.
37:01
Um,
37:01
you know,
37:02
I'm a,
37:03
I'm a diehard,
37:04
you know,
37:04
Cowboys fan.
37:05
Like I,
37:05
I grew up with,
37:06
uh,
37:07
you know,
37:07
my family
37:09
jumping up and hollering every time they scored,
37:12
which they scored a lot in the 80s and 90s,
37:14
um,
37:14
not so much lately,
37:15
but
37:16
I'm gonna take a real strong,
37:17
good vibe.
37:19
Yes,
37:19
position on 12+ wins for the Cowboys this year.
37:22
I mean,
37:22
they are the,
37:23
they're the,
37:23
they're the sexy team.
37:25
Everyone's talking about it.
37:26
27 cents.
37:27
We make a side bet.
37:28
We make it a side bet then.
37:31
Well,
37:31
you know,
37:32
again,
37:32
if,
37:32
if they have,
37:33
if they have the kind of season where
37:35
they're,
37:36
you know,
37:36
the,
37:36
the Giants this weekend,
37:38
I mean,
37:38
you know,
37:38
they could,
37:39
they could go in there and just completely destroy the Giants,
37:41
or it could be a close game and they could end up losing.
37:44
But if they have
37:45
the kind of season where Dax stays healthy.
37:48
They've got a,
37:48
they've got a decent defensive strategy.
37:51
Um,
37:52
there's no reason why they can't
37:54
perform well and,
37:55
and be in competition.
37:57
12 wins might be a little bit of aggressive move,
37:59
but
38:00
hey,
38:00
listen,
38:01
I saved my long shots for the,
38:02
for the end.
38:03
So let's,
38:03
let's go for the Americans team.
38:05
12 wins,
38:06
27 cents.
38:07
Let's lock it in.
38:08
Well,
38:08
it's one of those things too where,
38:09
where both Cowboys fans and Eagles fans can come
38:11
together and hope for Dak to remain healthy.
38:13
Uh,
38:14
so that's always something that I root for every single year,
38:17
every single year.
38:17
Keep going,
38:18
Dak.
38:18
You got it.
38:19
You and Jerry Jones in this,
38:21
just keep going.
38:22
It's all we got.
38:22
It's all I've got.
38:23
We don't have anything else.
38:25
All right,
38:26
Keith,
38:26
we got a few more picks to do here.
38:28
Let's try to,
38:28
um,
38:29
we're,
38:29
we're running a little bit late here.
38:30
So let's do a quick kind of speed round here in our last picks.
38:32
You've got two in a row here,
38:33
Keith.
38:34
OK,
38:34
go to the NFC West for me,
38:35
San Francisco.
38:36
I think the electrical substation is gonna win again,
38:39
and,
38:40
uh.
38:40
Uh,
38:40
let's,
38:41
uh,
38:41
what,
38:41
where they got the 9?
38:42
00 gosh,
38:43
no,
38:43
no,
38:43
no,
38:43
no,
38:44
no,
38:44
no,
38:44
no,
38:44
no,
38:44
no.
38:45
Yeah,
38:45
take me there.
38:46
Uh,
38:46
scroll me down some there.
38:48
Yeah,
38:48
I'll take,
38:49
uh,
38:50
the 11.
38:50
I'm gonna take the no
38:52
on the 11 wins there for sure.
38:55
11,
38:55
that's 54 cents.
38:56
You're getting that one for San Francisco.
38:58
The substation,
38:59
uh,
38:59
just tearing apart tendons and ligaments all over that team every single year.
39:03
It's,
39:03
it's,
39:04
I don't think it's true at all,
39:05
but I love the conspiracy theory.
39:06
It's just fun.
39:07
Um,
39:07
so,
39:08
see,
39:08
I do,
39:09
uh,
39:10
OK,
39:11
let's go to Pittsburgh because,
39:12
uh,
39:12
Aaron Rodgers,
39:13
you wanna talk about being
39:15
done.
39:16
In fact,
39:16
in fact,
39:17
the Steelers are gonna lose to the Falcons on Sunday,
39:18
and I don't make Falcons predictions.
39:20
That's how bold I'm feeling.
39:21
So I'm obviously gonna be eating those words,
39:23
but they're at what,
39:24
what are they at,
39:25
uh,
39:26
9 wins.
39:26
Oh yeah,
39:27
we're going under that.
39:28
We're gonna say stop right there.
39:29
Let's go there.
39:31
Uh,
39:31
give me the
39:33
Uh,
39:33
no,
39:34
I'm not even,
39:35
they're not even gonna have 8 wins.
39:37
Give me,
39:37
give me,
39:37
uh,
39:38
yeah,
39:38
uh,
39:38
so,
39:39
so,
39:40
uh,
39:40
they're gonna finish with 7 wins,
39:43
so,
39:43
uh.
39:44
You figure me out,
39:45
uh,
39:45
what the 37 cents it looks like,
39:46
yeah,
39:47
no on 8 wins.
39:48
Yep.
39:48
Take no on 8 wins at 37 cents for Keith
39:52
in our last round.
39:53
3 more picks to go.
39:54
Brent,
39:54
you've got one of them.
39:57
3 more picks to go.
39:58
OK,
39:58
let's uh
40:01
Uh,
40:02
I have a lot of thoughts about the Lions.
40:06
I like the Lions a lot this season.
40:08
Um,
40:09
I think they're gonna be a,
40:10
a,
40:10
a strong,
40:11
and,
40:11
you know,
40:11
I mean,
40:12
obviously
40:13
they're winning the Super Bowl,
40:14
baby.
40:15
I think they really,
40:16
they really could.
40:17
So let's,
40:18
uh,
40:18
if you pull that up,
40:19
uh,
40:20
let's get aggressive though.
40:21
I mean,
40:21
let's,
40:21
let's go over the 10 win.
40:23
What's,
40:23
what's the 11 win,
40:25
uh.
40:28
11 looks like,
40:29
uh,
40:29
you're saying yes is 56 cents,
40:31
is it?
40:33
I,
40:33
I,
40:33
I,
40:34
I think 11 wins is,
40:35
is,
40:36
is a solid.
40:38
I mean,
40:38
I,
40:38
I,
40:39
I don't see them not getting there unless there's just a
40:42
catastrophe that happens,
40:43
so I,
40:43
I say yes on 11+ wins for the Detroit Lions.
40:47
OK,
40:47
yes.
40:49
11 wins.
40:51
Uh,
40:51
and what was the price,
40:52
55 cents on that,
40:53
Adam?
40:54
Um,
40:55
OK.
40:55
All right.
40:55
Uh,
40:56
I am gonna go into a quick,
40:57
uh,
40:58
quick scroll.
40:58
I've got 2 I'm thinking of here.
41:00
Uh.
41:08
I'm gonna go
41:10
So I think I,
41:11
I'm gonna go with,
41:11
I'm gonna talk about Tampa Bay here,
41:13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
41:14
Uh,
41:15
you know,
41:16
uh,
41:17
I,
41:18
you know,
41:18
I,
41:18
I went back and forth.
41:19
I,
41:19
I had two of your rivals here,
41:20
Keith,
41:21
Tampa and New Orleans.
41:22
I considered for overs,
41:24
uh,
41:24
just so you're Carolina is gonna win the division.
41:26
You think Carolina is the one,
41:27
I,
41:27
I think I,
41:28
I,
41:28
I think it's gonna be Tampa.
41:30
Um,
41:30
Tampa
41:31
has a lot.
41:32
They have a good defense.
41:33
I mean,
41:33
Tampa has a solid defense and definitely has some offensive talent,
41:37
um,
41:37
though,
41:38
you know,
41:38
they're a little banged up.
41:39
Uh,
41:39
I am gonna go.
41:40
I just like the pricing on Tampa.
41:42
I,
41:42
I,
41:42
uh,
41:44
I was gonna say.
41:46
Give me,
41:47
yes,
41:47
10 wins at 38 cents.
41:51
Uh,
41:52
again,
41:52
I don't know when's the last time,
41:53
was it like 1875 someone in this division won 10 games.
41:57
Um,
41:57
but,
41:58
uh,
41:58
I will,
41:59
I will do it anyway.
42:01
That hurts,
42:01
bro.
42:01
That hurts.
42:03
Uh,
42:03
I'll take Tampa,
42:05
yes,
42:05
10 wins.
42:05
I,
42:05
I,
42:06
I really,
42:06
I,
42:06
I like New Orleans as an up and comer.
42:08
Uh,
42:09
I think that offense is gonna be really good,
42:10
but,
42:10
you know,
42:11
still,
42:11
I,
42:11
I don't,
42:11
I don't think they're gonna win the division.
42:13
I'll go Tampa,
42:14
yes on 10+ wins for 38 cents.
42:17
Dan,
42:17
you got the last pick in the draft.
42:18
All right.
42:19
And uh what better way to wrap up an exciting draft than going with the Browns.
42:24
Uh,
42:26
and,
42:26
and we will take the Browns.
42:27
It's gonna be an interesting one.
42:29
I'm gonna go yes,
42:31
and I'm
42:32
going as far as I can possibly go where I like the,
42:35
uh,
42:35
the,
42:36
the number,
42:37
and I'm gonna go yes at 6 wins.
42:40
Uh,
42:40
I'm seeing 53.
42:42
I don't know what you're seeing over there.
42:43
Seeing 53 as well.
42:45
Yeah,
42:45
yes,
42:46
at 53.
42:47
All right,
42:47
OK.
42:48
There's the draft.
42:49
Uh,
42:49
I'll go through it real quick.
42:50
Keith,
42:50
yes,
42:50
on Indianapolis,
42:52
uh,
42:53
and,
42:53
uh,
42:53
Jacksonville,
42:54
yes,
42:54
over 12 wins,
42:55
both of them.
42:56
Keith,
42:57
uh,
42:57
on Washington,
42:58
yes,
42:58
over 10.
42:59
Keith,
43:00
San Francisco,
43:01
no
43:02
on 11+ wins,
43:03
and Keith Pittsburgh,
43:05
no on 8+ wins.
43:08
I feel like it's one of those things like Tampa was not even on my sheet.
43:11
I did a prep sheet before,
43:12
I'm not even on there.
43:12
Like,
43:13
this is exactly what I do in fantasy drafts.
43:15
Like I,
43:15
you have,
43:16
like I have this whole thing,
43:17
this whole plan,
43:18
and then the,
43:18
and the whole thing falls apart.
43:19
All right.
43:20
Uh,
43:20
Brent,
43:20
uh,
43:21
Denver,
43:21
yes,
43:21
10 wins.
43:22
Uh,
43:23
Brent,
43:24
uh,
43:24
the Chargers,
43:25
no,
43:26
10 wins
43:27
or more.
43:28
Uh,
43:28
Atlanta,
43:29
no,
43:29
5 wins or more.
43:31
Dallas,
43:31
yes,
43:32
on 12 wins,
43:33
and Detroit,
43:34
yes,
43:34
on 11.
43:35
Uh,
43:36
I am Houston,
43:37
yes,
43:37
on 10 wins or more.
43:39
Um,
43:40
the Jets,
43:41
yes,
43:42
on 8 wins or more.
43:43
Uh,
43:44
the Rams,
43:44
no on 13.
43:46
The
43:47
Eagles,
43:47
no on 11 or more,
43:49
and Tampa,
43:50
yes,
43:50
on 10 or more.
43:52
And Dan,
43:53
uh,
43:53
Miami,
43:54
a yes on 4 or more,
43:56
Buffalo,
43:56
yes on 9 or more.
43:58
Uh,
43:59
Atlanta,
43:59
yes,
44:00
on 7 or more.
44:01
The Giants,
44:02
no,
44:02
on 8 or more,
44:03
and Cleveland,
44:04
yes,
44:04
on 6 or more.
44:05
Who had the longest shot here out of all?
44:07
Actually,
44:07
the longest shot in the entire draft was the
44:09
absolute first pick in the draft from Keith,
44:12
who said Indianapolis over 12.
44:14
Uh,
44:14
no one,
44:15
you know,
44:15
I,
44:15
I was tempted to take some just like 90s,
44:18
you know,
44:19
what I just go with like 95% on a bunch of them and just,
44:22
just know you're gonna be over,
44:23
uh,
44:24
over 500
44:25
and then hope everyone else misses,
44:27
yeah.
44:28
Um,
44:28
that's not no fun,
44:29
maybe,
44:29
but I will say it is a way to profit often.
44:32
Uh,
44:32
the biggest favorite taken in the draft,
44:34
Dan,
44:35
taking Buffalo over 9 wins,
44:37
83%
44:38
on that one.
44:39
OK,
44:39
guys,
44:39
uh,
44:40
we're gonna take a break.
44:40
We,
44:40
we went way too long on this,
44:41
but this is so much fun.
44:42
Uh,
44:43
thanks so much for hanging out.
44:44
Uh,
44:44
uh,
44:44
Keith Malinak,
44:45
uh,
44:45
it is at the Mic ATM show and of course,
44:48
Pat,
44:49
uh,
44:49
Gray unleashed.
44:50
On Blaze TV,
44:51
Dan Andros,
44:52
a friend of the show,
44:53
and,
44:53
uh,
44:54
uh,
44:54
and Brent,
44:55
I wouldn't say a friend just because of the cowboy situation,
44:58
uh,
44:58
but also works here at Predictable Media.
45:00
Yeah,
45:01
thank you.
45:02
I appreciate that.
45:02
Look at that.
45:03
And at least until Thanksgiving,
45:05
and then we can hate each other for a 24 hour period.
45:07
Alright guys,
45:08
thanks so much for joining us.
45:08
PredictableShow.com.
45:09
By the way,
45:10
if you wanna,
45:10
if you wanna play along,
45:11
it's,
45:11
you know,
45:11
you can do it for free.
45:12
It's not like a,
45:13
you know,
45:13
paid contest or anything.
45:15
Uh,
45:15
just go on there and put your picks in the chat.
45:17
Uh,
45:17
you'll see it on predictableShow.com.
45:20
Put them in there,
45:20
you get 5 picks,
45:21
uh,
45:22
and,
45:22
and put your prediction market tickets in.
45:23
They'll give you the picks and they'll give you all the,
45:25
uh,
45:26
details on how to do it.
45:27
And at the end of the season,
45:27
we'll give out some,
45:28
uh,
45:28
cool predictable swag or something.
45:30
I don't know.
45:30
We'll figure that out at some point.
45:31
OK,
45:32
gotta take a break.
45:32
Predictableshow.com.
45:48
So much going on and we got the NFL season starting.
45:50
As we mentioned,
45:50
we did a bunch of NFL content,
45:52
but we can't let the political season go by here as well,
45:55
uh,
45:56
especially considering
45:57
the convention is here,
45:58
it's in town.
45:59
Um,
46:00
I was gonna go and then I,
46:01
it's just my,
46:02
my arm is bothering me too much and I'm too,
46:04
I'm too much of a wuss.
46:05
That's frankly the reason,
46:06
uh,
46:07
but maybe I'll watch some of it on,
46:08
on the TV.
46:09
Uh,
46:09
so anyway,
46:10
uh,
46:10
that's,
46:11
that's here in town.
46:11
Lots of people have been coming in and out,
46:13
and,
46:13
and it's been,
46:14
it's been cool to see everybody,
46:15
but
46:16
Uh,
46:16
I don't wanna go to a very crowded area for a very long period of time and be in pain.
46:19
That's just,
46:20
that's just me.
46:20
I'm a wuss.
46:21
I'm being honest with you.
46:22
However,
46:22
there are 54 days until the midterm elections,
46:25
not that much,
46:25
uh,
46:26
to go.
46:26
We only have Delaware
46:28
to go as far as our primary elections,
46:31
uh,
46:31
go,
46:31
and we have 8 days now
46:34
until the first round of.
46:35
Early voting begins,
46:36
uh,
46:37
and it starts in Minnesota,
46:38
South Dakota,
46:38
and Virginia and goes,
46:40
uh,
46:40
from,
46:41
from there,
46:42
uh,
46:43
so we have been talking for a while
46:45
about,
46:46
uh,
46:47
this sort of thing we're doing,
46:48
candidate of the day.
46:49
What we're trying to do is find
46:51
different opportunities for you to
46:52
maybe potentially get into,
46:54
uh,
46:54
when there's a good,
46:55
uh,
46:56
a good price on it.
46:57
Maybe it's something that you can lock in a little bit early,
46:59
something that's more of a
47:00
we kind of looked at it in three thing,
47:02
uh,
47:02
categories.
47:03
Is it something where you're like,
47:03
you know.
47:05
Almost doubling your money or maybe 70-80% on your money.
47:09
That's in one category.
47:10
We had someone,
47:11
Ashley Hinson,
47:11
uh,
47:11
earlier this week that we had in that category.
47:14
We had,
47:15
um,
47:15
you know,
47:16
maybe someone who's a little bit more,
47:17
uh,
47:17
uh,
47:18
closer to,
47:19
uh,
47:19
a sure thing,
47:20
quote unquote,
47:21
uh,
47:21
which is Tina Kotak in Oregon was our second day.
47:24
She's at like 80,
47:25
and I think she's up to 89 cents now.
47:27
I was buying her more like in the mid 80s,
47:28
but still 89 cents.
47:29
I think there's still value there.
47:31
Uh,
47:31
wanted to go in the middle here with one as well.
47:33
So our candidate countdown candidate of the day,
47:36
we've got,
47:36
uh,
47:37
54 days.
47:38
Until,
47:39
uh,
47:40
wait,
47:40
54 days,
47:41
is that right?
47:41
54 days.
47:42
That's incredible.
47:42
I can't believe how close we are.
47:44
This is really sneaking up on me because of,
47:45
uh,
47:47
everything that's happened,
47:48
uh,
47:48
over the,
47:49
over the past couple of weeks.
47:50
54 days until the midterms and we're going with the Texas tie here
47:56
and some interesting value to find in Texas.
47:58
You might be saying,
47:59
is it Ken Paxton?
48:00
No,
48:01
this time we're gonna go with
48:02
Greg Abbott.
48:03
Yes,
48:04
Greg Abbott,
48:05
the,
48:05
uh,
48:06
governor currently
48:07
and been for a very long time,
48:09
uh,
48:09
here in Texas.
48:10
He'd be going for,
48:10
I think his 4th,
48:12
4th term
48:13
here in Texas.
48:14
He's going up against
48:15
Gina
48:16
Hinajoza.
48:19
Hinahosa,
48:20
Gina Hinahosa.
48:21
And
48:22
let me give you the case for Abbott here
48:24
and why I think it's a good pick.
48:26
And then I'll give you the,
48:26
the case against him as well.
48:29
Uh,
48:29
we have this,
48:30
uh,
48:31
this new poll that just came out,
48:32
by the way.
48:32
I'll tell you about that.
48:33
Uh,
48:33
this is,
48:33
uh,
48:34
Greg Abbott faces worrying poll as Trump's Texas RNC begins,
48:37
and this is one of the things
48:39
that
48:40
kind of
48:41
gives us a little bit more value than I would expect,
48:43
uh,
48:43
particularly on a race
48:45
like this.
48:46
Abbott
48:46
is in Texas.
48:47
You may know Texas and you may know what Texas is like.
48:50
Texas is.
48:51
It is not the brightest of red states anymore,
48:54
um,
48:55
but it is still a red state,
48:56
a state where Republicans
48:58
really don't have too much trouble.
48:59
In fact,
49:00
no Republican has been elected statewide since
49:03
I was in high school.
49:04
Uh,
49:04
that was a long time ago.
49:06
Uh,
49:06
look at me,
49:07
I'm old.
49:08
1994 was the year,
49:10
the last time,
49:11
uh,
49:11
there was an election that went to a Democrat.
49:13
It's been over 30 years now.
49:15
Uh,
49:15
Texas has moved,
49:17
uh,
49:17
you know,
49:18
certainly,
49:19
uh,
49:19
uh,
49:19
toward the right,
49:20
uh,
49:20
since then
49:21
when Democrats had a chance to really win these elections,
49:23
and it's been that way for a while.
49:25
Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris 56 to 42,
49:28
about 14 point margin.
49:30
Ted Cruz beat Colin Allred by
49:32
9,
49:33
in that,
49:34
uh,
49:34
election as well.
49:36
Now,
49:36
Greg Abbott is not some,
49:39
just some random guy.
49:40
Abbott is a guy who's been governor for a very long time here in Texas.
49:43
He's run 3 times.
49:45
Uh,
49:45
I'll give you these two first,
49:46
which was 2014,
49:48
uh,
49:48
in a,
49:49
in a year that was sort of like a
49:51
pretty good year for Republicans,
49:53
he beat Wendy Davis 59 to 38,
49:56
so a 20+ point margin.
49:58
In 2022,
49:59
he beat Beto O'Rourke.
50:01
So O'Rourke went against Cruz and had a close election against Cruz in 2018,
50:05
came back,
50:06
tried to run
50:06
in 2022,
50:09
and lost to Greg Abbott by 11 points.
50:12
In between that though,
50:12
is I think a more instructive year.
50:14
Because both of those in 2014 and 2022
50:17
were elections that were
50:20
um
50:21
in that environment that was leaning toward the right a little bit.
50:24
It was a good year for Republicans.
50:27
2018 was the exact opposite,
50:28
a terrible year for Republicans.
50:30
2018 is kind of what you would compare what we're looking at here for 2026,
50:35
at least that's what we,
50:36
you know,
50:37
all things being equal,
50:38
what we would expect,
50:39
which would be a very bad year for Republicans.
50:42
He ran that year against Lupe Valdez,
50:45
and,
50:45
uh,
50:45
do we have the results of that one,
50:47
by the way?
50:47
Um,
50:48
I know it's a little bit out of order,
50:49
but Lupe Valdez,
50:51
uh,
50:51
it was 2018,
50:52
yeah,
50:52
here it is,
50:52
55.8% to 42.5%.
50:55
Won by over a million votes here in Texas.
50:59
Uh,
51:00
back in 2018 in a terrible
51:02
environment
51:04
for Republicans,
51:05
very much like the one we're looking at today,
51:07
um.
51:09
He won by a decent amount.
51:11
In fact,
51:11
right now when you look at the generic ballot,
51:13
which is kind of how you
51:15
judge the climate,
51:16
this is actually more,
51:17
uh,
51:17
2018 was more negative for Republicans than what we're seeing right now.
51:21
Um,
51:22
that could change as we covered yesterday,
51:24
but
51:24
right now
51:25
this is actually a better environment for Republicans than we saw back in 2014.
51:28
Now,
51:28
look,
51:29
or 2018.
51:30
Now look,
51:30
the Texas has changed.
51:32
Texas has,
51:33
uh,
51:33
become
51:34
more purplish
51:35
than it was back in 2018.
51:38
Uh,
51:38
it's,
51:38
it's harder to win in Texas,
51:40
uh,
51:41
but still it's been pretty easy.
51:42
Abbott's a known quantity.
51:44
He's not the most popular governor in the world.
51:46
He,
51:47
he's not like super beloved by conservatives.
51:50
Like there are definitely questions.
51:51
Uh,
51:52
he,
51:52
he,
51:52
you know,
51:53
Democrats obviously don't like him,
51:54
but there's a lot more Republicans here than there are,
51:56
uh,
51:57
Democrats.
51:57
The generic ballot in Texas,
52:00
unlike the rest of the country where it's +7 or 8
52:03
for Democrats,
52:04
is still +4 for Republicans.
52:06
So it's still a Republican leaning
52:07
environment,
52:08
and Abbott has a lot of money.
52:11
He's a very good fundraiser.
52:12
He's been around for a long time.
52:14
He knows everybody in Texas.
52:15
He has almost a comical
52:18
financial advantage
52:20
over,
52:20
uh,
52:21
Hinojoza,
52:22
his opponent.
52:23
We looked at the Talarico-Paxton race.
52:25
The opposite dynamic is playing out there.
52:27
What Democrats are doing is they see the opportunity in the Senate.
52:30
They'll,
52:30
they'll love the governor pick.
52:31
If they can pick that off,
52:32
great,
52:32
but they see a real opportunity in the Senate,
52:34
which is
52:35
basically seen as a fifty-fifty race right now.
52:37
In the gubernatorial race,
52:39
you have a situation where,
52:41
um,
52:42
you know,
52:42
there is a,
52:43
uh,
52:44
uh,
52:44
uh,
52:45
a massive dam
52:46
uh,
52:46
difference.
52:47
Cash on hand right now.
52:49
Abbott,
52:49
67 million,
52:51
Hinahoza,
52:52
3 million.
52:54
So we're talking a 20 times the advantage when it comes to money,
52:58
and you notice that being here in Texas cause there are Abbott commercials on
53:01
basically all the time.
53:02
Uh,
53:02
uh,
53:03
anything else here from my notes,
53:05
um.
53:07
Uh,
53:08
you know,
53:08
Hinojosa is winning the cities,
53:10
which you have to do as a Democrat,
53:11
and you should no matter what,
53:12
but it's very close,
53:12
45,
53:13
43 in a,
53:14
in a recent poll in August
53:16
that I had polled.
53:17
Um,
53:17
and Abbott has led in basically every single poll that we've held so far.
53:21
Now,
53:21
let me give you the,
53:21
the downside for this.
53:23
Um,
53:23
if you want to argue the other side and why this might be,
53:26
there might be some risk here.
53:27
I mentioned that poll,
53:28
it was not positive.
53:29
Here are the polls,
53:29
uh,
53:30
recently,
53:30
and it is the one poll that where Abbott is not leading,
53:33
that just came out.
53:34
Um,
53:35
in fact,
53:35
every time I do one of these,
53:36
we know what's gonna happen.
53:37
There's gonna be a poll that disagrees with it.
53:39
Uh,
53:39
but
53:40
Abbott had won 123456 in a row.
53:42
They were close polls,
53:43
2753.
53:45
One,
53:45
those are the types of leads,
53:47
uh,
53:47
that he has had.
53:48
The most recent though poll from YouGov and Univision
53:51
has it at 47-47
53:54
right now
53:55
for,
53:56
uh,
53:56
a tie in that particular race.
53:59
Uh,
53:59
the polling's been pretty close,
54:01
uh,
54:01
closer than certainly his past races.
54:03
I don't expect him to get anywhere near 15 or 17 point victory here.
54:07
Um,
54:08
but,
54:08
Uh,
54:09
independents definitely are gonna go toward her.
54:12
She's gonna get her Democrats.
54:13
It's just a question of are there gonna be enough Republicans?
54:15
Um,
54:17
one thing I think is real
54:18
and a real problem here.
54:20
Is Republicans,
54:21
and I,
54:21
I mentioned this to you at the time on Glenn's show.
54:24
I remember saying it
54:25
when,
54:25
when all this redistricting was going on.
54:26
I remember talking about it then as well.
54:28
Uh,
54:29
the,
54:30
the issue is if you start saying,
54:32
oh well,
54:32
we in 2024 we did well among Hispanic voters for the first time in 9 million years,
54:37
that's gonna stick around forever.
54:39
That's not the right attitude,
54:40
um,
54:41
and what's happened here
54:42
is the,
54:43
the Hispanic voters
54:45
in Texas have moved back towards the Democrats where they've always been.
54:48
So the redistricting really worries me for some of those races
54:52
where Republicans thought they were getting red districts.
54:54
I think some of that,
54:55
what do they call it,
54:56
um,
54:56
instead of a gerrymander,
54:58
a dummymander,
54:59
uh,
54:59
where you gerrymander the race thinking you're making
55:01
a victory and then you wind up losing.
55:03
I think it's possible in Texas in some of these races.
55:05
That's not gonna affect Abbott though,
55:06
because of course it's a statewide race,
55:08
but
55:09
the,
55:09
the Latino vote,
55:10
which had been going,
55:11
uh,
55:11
more towards the Republicans,
55:12
seems to have legitimately turned around.
55:14
There's a ton of polling on that,
55:16
and that does seem to be real.
55:19
And you know,
55:19
I,
55:19
uh,
55:20
generally speaking,
55:21
not a
55:21
super pro
55:23
Abbott.
55:24
Passion.
55:25
The guy's been around for a long time.
55:26
I think honestly the big risk for him losing here
55:28
is people are just sick of him.
55:29
He's been the governor for a very long time.
55:31
This is gonna be his 4th term if he wins.
55:33
So,
55:34
you know,
55:34
sometimes that just happens
55:35
and there's an anti-incumbent sort of vibe.
55:38
Here's what that market looks like though.
55:39
Again,
55:39
I would say this market you'd think in this race would be 90+%.
55:43
Uh,
55:43
right now you can get Greg Abbott at 83%,
55:46
uh,
55:47
or Gina.
55:49
Hinojosa
55:50
and uh no at uh
55:52
you can get Hinojosa at 17%.
55:54
I think the value there is on Abbott though.
55:56
Abbott should hold this race.
55:57
He's got a lot of money.
55:58
He's not,
55:59
he's not the greatest politician in the world,
56:01
honestly,
56:01
but
56:02
he,
56:02
he is also not a type of person who makes tons and tons of horrible mistakes,
56:07
uh,
56:07
and it's Texas.
56:09
The one thing you are risking there is you do
56:11
need some split tickets because there will be people,
56:13
uh,
56:13
you,
56:14
you know,
56:14
that will vote for
56:15
against Ken Paxton and vote for Tallarico.
56:18
You're gonna need some of those people to kind of cross,
56:20
cross those streams,
56:21
and I don't know if that happens.
56:22
My guess is a lot of those people wind up coming back and
56:24
And,
56:24
uh,
56:25
you know,
56:26
mid-single digits to high single digits,
56:28
uh,
56:28
Abbott winds up winning that race.
56:30
We will see.
56:31
We will watch that,
56:31
of course,
56:32
and as we get closer to the race,
56:33
we'll start looking more at those margin markets for even bigger opportunities,
56:36
but,
56:36
uh,
56:36
that's where we are right now.
56:37
That's one of the things I like too of taking someone like
56:40
Abbott
56:41
and taking maybe like by like 3%,
56:43
right,
56:43
like a close victory,
56:45
um,
56:45
and not a blowout,
56:47
but that gives you a little bit of room if he wins by 5 to 8%.
56:50
Anyway,
56:50
uh,
56:50
that's where we are on Candidate of the day.
56:52
Gonna take a quick break,
56:53
come back with a
56:54
a final wrap up,
56:55
and then we'll see you for the weekend.
57:06
All right,
57:06
before we head out,
57:07
uh,
57:07
let me give you a few things going on at the site,
57:10
predictableShow.com.
57:12
You have tomorrow,
57:14
Stu's Picks,
57:15
a new version of it.
57:16
Uh,
57:16
there will be over,
57:17
I mean,
57:17
we might be getting close to 300 different positions,
57:19
honestly,
57:20
cause I,
57:21
you know,
57:21
I've been kind of getting,
57:22
putting my money into some of these races we've been talking about,
57:25
trying to get ahead.
57:26
Of the November elections and so we are,
57:29
that's,
57:29
you know,
57:30
one of the things I've been doing,
57:31
uh,
57:31
pretty regularly.
57:32
There's a bunch of new picks that we will
57:33
have for you tomorrow if you're a premium subscriber,
57:35
predictable show.com.
57:37
It's been doing great.
57:38
You guys have been joining and,
57:39
uh,
57:39
thanks so much for making this grow so quickly.
57:42
Uh,
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we've been on the,
57:42
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57:43
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57:43
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57:44
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It's great and we really do appreciate it.
57:48
Uh,
57:49
thanks so much for hanging out and checking all this stuff out with us.
57:52
Uh,
57:52
we had the big announcement,
57:53
uh,
57:53
this week of,
57:54
uh,
57:55
predictable with Stu going on Blaze TV.
57:57
Uh,
57:57
we're excited to be part of the Blaze TV family.
58:00
Now I'm already part of the Blaze TV family
58:01
because I do Stu and Dave do America,
58:03
but this show as well now coming to Blaze TV,
58:05
very cool,
58:06
uh,
58:06
excited about that addition,
58:08
uh,
58:09
to get more people,
58:09
more eyeballs on the show,
58:11
more people maybe understanding prediction markets,
58:13
uh,
58:13
in,
58:13
in a new way.
58:14
We also have an election model we've been working on which is basically done.
58:19
Uh,
58:19
and it'll be up,
58:20
I think Monday is probably the day we will,
58:22
uh,
58:22
put that out,
58:23
um,
58:24
an election model which will kind of show you,
58:25
hey,
58:26
you know,
58:26
where does each race stand,
58:27
where,
58:28
uh,
58:28
you know,
58:29
how do you follow it,
58:29
uh,
58:30
you know,
58:30
looking back,
58:30
you can kind of see a historical a little bit on the graph and all,
58:33
all those fun things.
58:35
And then
58:35
not only that,
58:36
because a lot of people have
58:37
um.
58:38
Election models
58:39
we look at
58:39
ton like basically it's a total consensus.
58:41
It's not my opinion.
58:42
It's a consensus of like a million different prediction
58:45
models and polling averages and all sorts of data.
58:47
The one thing that is not included in in that model
58:50
are prediction markets,
58:50
and we do that for a reason,
58:52
because we wanna give you a number of where the consensus is.
58:55
They think something's at 80%,
58:57
and then we're gonna show you where,
58:58
uh,
58:59
Calci and polymarket and other prediction markets are.
59:02
Maybe 85% or 87%,
59:04
and you might say,
59:04
hey,
59:04
there's value there somewhere.
59:06
Which way is it?
59:07
That's kinda how we're looking at this and we wanna prepare you.
59:10
If you are um a free subscriber,
59:12
go to predictableShow.com,
59:14
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59:16
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59:18
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59:21
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59:22
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59:22
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59:24
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59:25
And then you'll also get uh the House and Senate,
59:28
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59:30
You can see it
59:31
with the prediction market data.
59:32
And then if you want more,
59:33
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59:34
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59:37
We're gonna be working on the gubernatorial races here
59:39
in the coming weeks as well to try to find value because
59:42
that's what we're trying to do here leading into November and beyond.
59:45
Uh,
59:46
as we see those opportunities.
59:48
Uh,
59:48
anything else I need to mention to you?
59:49
I don't,
59:49
I don't think so.
59:50
Um,
59:51
we,
59:51
uh,
59:51
I might do,
59:52
uh,
59:52
a live stream tomorrow to talk about Stu's picks,
59:55
just kind of go through any of the different ones.
59:56
We'd like to do that with the premium subscribers,
59:59
uh,
59:59
and,
59:59
uh,
59:59
don't forget too,
1:00:00
you have the,
1:00:00
uh,
1:00:01
live stream of the show as we do the taping every single day
1:00:03
if you are a premium subscriber as well.
1:00:05
Lots of value there.
1:00:06
I think it's really worth your money.
1:00:07
I think it's really worth your time.
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Uh,
1:00:08
a lot of people have talked to,
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look,
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just the strategies and the picks already,
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I love that.
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That's the best case scenario.
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Uh,
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hopefully this doesn't cost you anything because
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OK,
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thanks so much for joining us.
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