Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Iran Deal vs Crypto📉Market Update🔥
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: It is crypto versus a piece deal.
- 0:01Speaker 2: Today.
- 0:02Speaker 1: We're going to be breaking that down because there's a
- 0:03Speaker 1: lot in the market that could be affecting everything we're
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- 1:01Speaker 1: this one. It is an awesome one. All right, guys,
- 1:03Speaker 1: I want to lead off today with a tweet, And
- 1:06Speaker 1: of course what I'm looking at right here is of
- 1:09Speaker 1: course President Trump saying that negatiat negotiations with Iran will
- 1:13Speaker 1: only be a great deal if it's a great deal
- 1:16Speaker 1: for everyone. And you can kind of see right here
- 1:18Speaker 1: on true social absolutely filled it up with everybody that's
- 1:22Speaker 1: involved in this deal. So there is a lot yet
- 1:25Speaker 1: to be done. The concern I have right now is
- 1:27Speaker 1: whether or not we actually get out of this war
- 1:31Speaker 1: as soon as we can, or does this stretch on
- 1:35Speaker 1: for months and months of negotiations continuing to see the
- 1:38Speaker 1: horror moves straight closed and what does that mean. Let's
- 1:42Speaker 1: jump over to Trump holding a rare cabinet meeting, and
- 1:45Speaker 1: this of course is going on Camp David this Wednesday.
- 1:48Speaker 1: If you look at this around the tensions that are
- 1:51Speaker 1: rising within Iran and the fact that they are holding
- 1:54Speaker 1: this cabinet meeting, this is crunch time. This I think
- 1:57Speaker 1: is going to get down to either what are they
- 1:59Speaker 1: going to accept? What are they not going to accept?
- 2:02Speaker 1: And all of this starts to point to two major markets.
- 2:05Speaker 1: One of course, is going to continue to be How
- 2:08Speaker 1: does this end? If you look at polymarket, polymarket has
- 2:11Speaker 1: this on the December outlook at a eighty one percent
- 2:14Speaker 1: chance back here, not too long ago, just on May
- 2:17Speaker 1: twenty second, just a few days ago, it was at
- 2:19Speaker 1: a sixty two percent chance by December. This is my point.
- 2:22Speaker 1: This could end up dragging on through summer and possibly
- 2:26Speaker 1: even on in past the midterms. This would have some
- 2:29Speaker 1: pretty uh I think garganshuman effect on crypto in general.
- 2:34Speaker 1: And this is the thing right now, the major markets.
- 2:37Speaker 1: If we're seeing that war is bad for bitcoin, it
- 2:40Speaker 1: seems that peace could be bad for bitcoin as well,
- 2:43Speaker 1: because we're not necessarily seeing the markets respond even though
- 2:48Speaker 1: we're seeing a potential of a peace deal underway other things.
- 2:52Speaker 1: Right now, the market is responding. You've got the S
- 2:54Speaker 1: and P five hundred rising to its highest level on
- 2:57Speaker 1: record right there now, on track for its first nine
- 3:00Speaker 1: week windstreak. This is huge because it hasn't happened since
- 3:04Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. I would like to know from you
- 3:07Speaker 1: guys drop some comments down below. Are you shifting your
- 3:11Speaker 1: investment thesis at all with this kind of run up?
- 3:14Speaker 1: I mean, this is almost mean coin style growth that
- 3:17Speaker 1: we're seeing in traditional markets. Are you placing any bets
- 3:20Speaker 1: on traditional stocks or at least on maybe the token
- 3:23Speaker 1: issed version within crypto. Let me know down in the comments.
- 3:26Speaker 1: Other things you got to look at right now is
- 3:28Speaker 1: oil prices. Oil prices continue to be an issue. But
- 3:32Speaker 1: the real question was if oil was going to go
- 3:34Speaker 1: down and a peace deal is underway, would that not
- 3:38Speaker 1: mean that that's good for crypto? According to charts right now,
- 3:42Speaker 1: if you just look at oil where it is holding
- 3:44Speaker 1: it around ninety four. Remember oil had clipped one hundred
- 3:47Speaker 1: and fifteen as far back as April seventh, that's just
- 3:50Speaker 1: a couple of months ago, one month ago. If you
- 3:53Speaker 1: look at this trending down, and if you look at
- 3:55Speaker 1: all the other crypto products, as we start to see
- 3:59Speaker 1: these piece deals, one of the biggest days right now
- 4:02Speaker 1: hitting bitcoin, this is another factor ethereum not necessarily holding
- 4:06Speaker 1: up either having a big day even XRP also slipping
- 4:11Speaker 1: in back down to the one thirty marks. So this
- 4:14Speaker 1: is not necessarily a positive for crypto in general. I
- 4:17Speaker 1: think the real question is the macro environment that continues
- 4:21Speaker 1: to cause pressure on these risk markets has got to change.
- 4:25Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip because this is
- 4:27Speaker 1: getting into how Iran is growing stronger the longer we
- 4:32Speaker 1: don't have a deal.
- 4:33Speaker 3: Take a look every day that goes by Iran's negotiating
- 4:37Speaker 3: leverage compounds. Why because inventories of oil and inventories continue
- 4:42Speaker 3: to drop. You know, last week alone you dropped inventories
- 4:44Speaker 3: by seventeen million barrels. The clock ticks on the situation.
- 4:48Speaker 3: For Iran, they're leveraging power compounds, while for the West
- 4:52Speaker 3: it decreases. We can come up with these different types
- 4:56Speaker 3: of policy announcements that try to solve it, but the
- 4:58Speaker 3: only thing that's going to solve it is more molecules.
- 5:01Speaker 3: And ultimately the real thing is open the straits. But
- 5:04Speaker 3: that's still even if you announced it tomorrow, six more
- 5:07Speaker 3: months before you really solve the problem.
- 5:11Speaker 1: The real question is how long does this supply chain
- 5:15Speaker 1: shock exist? And I think no one at least has
- 5:18Speaker 1: a timeline that I've seen. So the real question is
- 5:21Speaker 1: when this deal gets done, how long before we start
- 5:25Speaker 1: to see full and free flow of energy back into
- 5:27Speaker 1: the West. Remember that the US is not necessarily involved
- 5:31Speaker 1: in that, even though you do have situations rising in Asia.
- 5:35Speaker 1: Obviously in the EU I think the real question is
- 5:39Speaker 1: how long, because if that does take six months, that
- 5:41Speaker 1: could have some lasting effects on the market in general.
- 5:45Speaker 1: There's also a big situation that could end up killing
- 5:49Speaker 1: the Iranian deal, and it's a wildcard you may not know.
- 5:52Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 5:53Speaker 2: If the Israelis are not rained in by the United States,
- 5:57Speaker 2: they will not be a deal. Last time, there was
- 6:00Speaker 2: hoposed to be a region wide ceasefire, and we saw
- 6:03Speaker 2: what these Raelis have done there, continuing to bombard leving
- 6:06Speaker 2: On to Smithers, and we've seen how they have treated
- 6:09Speaker 2: the cease firing Gauza as well. If the United States
- 6:12Speaker 2: is incapable of raigning in the Israelis, then I think
- 6:16Speaker 2: that will put a significant amount of stress on this agreement.
- 6:20Speaker 2: Agreement may not even be able to be reached in
- 6:22Speaker 2: the first place.
- 6:24Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it. The Israelis still
- 6:27Speaker 1: continuing to kind of hold the ace card, and I
- 6:29Speaker 1: think the real question here is Trump is going to
- 6:32Speaker 1: have to draw the line at some point. I know
- 6:34Speaker 1: that a lot of this is all pent up on
- 6:38Speaker 1: what kind of deal is made with the Iranians, but
- 6:41Speaker 1: I think at one point you're probably gonna have the
- 6:43Speaker 1: Israelis coming to the table as well in the negotiation factor,
- 6:46Speaker 1: and I think there'll be enough pressure from EU, from
- 6:50Speaker 1: Asia and maybe even from China that could put a
- 6:54Speaker 1: little bit of twist on this going forward. The reason
- 6:57Speaker 1: all of this is important when you look at prices,
- 7:00Speaker 1: you look at the macro environment, you look at the
- 7:03Speaker 1: S and P on all time highs, and then you
- 7:05Speaker 1: look at how crypto is responding. Right now, we're setting
- 7:08Speaker 1: on a sixty percent chance. And let's just remember that
- 7:12Speaker 1: the War Powers Act, which was on the table last week,
- 7:15Speaker 1: got thrown off because they thought there was going to
- 7:18Speaker 1: be a deal. What happens if that spins back into
- 7:21Speaker 1: it at the wrong time, Because remember timing here is
- 7:24Speaker 1: super super important. We're holding a sixty percent chance right now,
- 7:29Speaker 1: which is up from just the other day at fifty
- 7:31Speaker 1: four percent, So you would think maybe there's some negotiations
- 7:35Speaker 1: happening in between all of this in terms of what's
- 7:39Speaker 1: going on in Iran, what's happening in the macro side
- 7:41Speaker 1: of things. All of this has pressure that is loading
- 7:45Speaker 1: in on top of crypto, and I think that's why
- 7:47Speaker 1: we are not seeing crypto move. One of the biggest
- 7:51Speaker 1: bulls on crypto that has always been a bull has been.
- 7:54Speaker 1: Mike Novogratz a Galaxy Digital, he was on talking about this,
- 7:59Speaker 1: and I want you to tell me if you think
- 8:01Speaker 1: he sounds bullish, take a look. But you know the
- 8:04Speaker 1: bowl cases you get a deal, OI oil goes back
- 8:07Speaker 1: down into the eighties.
- 8:09Speaker 4: The back end oil will get to the sixties.
- 8:11Speaker 2: Okay.
- 8:12Speaker 3: So I mean that gives our friend Kevin Warsh some amplitude,
- 8:16Speaker 3: right right to cut rate.
- 8:18Speaker 4: All that happens, worsh is starting to change his tune
- 8:22Speaker 4: and by the end of the year he's cutting rates,
- 8:24Speaker 4: not just fighting off people who want to hike. That
- 8:26Speaker 4: could be the last juice that this market needs to
- 8:29Speaker 4: have it rip your face off. Bitcoin reclaims eighty five
- 8:33Speaker 4: thousand before the end of June. That would be wildly bullish.
- 8:37Speaker 1: Do you think that will happen?
- 8:39Speaker 4: Oh? I see, I think that's right around where clarity
- 8:43Speaker 4: should be decided. I think I would if you move
- 8:46Speaker 4: that to the middle of July, i'd be bullish.
- 8:49Speaker 1: Okay, all right, middle of July, all of the he's
- 8:54Speaker 1: penning on bitcoin going back to eighty five strictly to clarity.
- 8:58Speaker 1: I think there's more to it then just that. I
- 9:02Speaker 1: think you have the whole mix of everything. You've got
- 9:04Speaker 1: to have the Iranian deal. You've got to have a
- 9:06Speaker 1: little bit of pressure off the markets in general, where
- 9:09Speaker 1: worsh might have a window later this year. Notice he
- 9:12Speaker 1: thought a rate cut by end of year. So FOMC meetings,
- 9:16Speaker 1: I don't know if we're going to see anymore like
- 9:18Speaker 1: we did with Powell, but if we do, it'll be
- 9:21Speaker 1: interesting to see how Kevin Walsh deals with the forward
- 9:25Speaker 1: looking statement. It's going to be intriguing. So be on
- 9:28Speaker 1: the look at that. A couple of other things. You
- 9:30Speaker 1: got to look at as the calendar, and right here
- 9:32Speaker 1: as the Congress second session. You look at the month
- 9:35Speaker 1: of May. Right there here we are on the week
- 9:38Speaker 1: of the twenty fifth. This is closed right now, so
- 9:41Speaker 1: you are out on a chance right there you move
- 9:44Speaker 1: into early June. There's a possibility. But it goes back
- 9:46Speaker 1: to the whole situation. We don't want to bog down
- 9:50Speaker 1: this June calendar with a lot of stuff. That's the point.
- 9:54Speaker 1: We have a chance to get into the Senate hopefully
- 9:56Speaker 1: and get this done. July starts to run really a
- 9:59Speaker 1: risk because August. Look at August, almost the entire month
- 10:02Speaker 1: of August is pretty much toast, and then you move
- 10:05Speaker 1: in to preparation for midterms in September. This is a
- 10:09Speaker 1: concern that I have. I know a lot of people
- 10:11Speaker 1: have come on the show, handful of analysts that have
- 10:13Speaker 1: said it could happen even as late as September. I
- 10:16Speaker 1: think that has pretty traumatic effects on the market in general.
- 10:20Speaker 1: Other things that may have an effect is the continuation
- 10:24Speaker 1: of negotiations. And what I mean by that is all
- 10:27Speaker 1: of these senators negotiating special deals during this clarity because
- 10:33Speaker 1: Trump and they know that Trump wants this through, so
- 10:37Speaker 1: they're throwing out everything. Here's a little bit of an
- 10:40Speaker 1: insight on Tom Tillis and how he may go at
- 10:43Speaker 1: Pete hag Seth.
- 10:44Speaker 5: Take a look, so hegg says owns it by being
- 10:47Speaker 5: Secretary of Defense. When you tell the president that you
- 10:50Speaker 5: have obliterated Iran and you're in a position to pretty
- 10:53Speaker 5: much dictate terms. And now you see what we have
- 10:56Speaker 5: when you see these mistakes made by hag Seth. I
- 10:59Speaker 5: actually I think with all these mistakes in total, it's
- 11:03Speaker 5: beginning to make Christine Ohm look like a five star recruit.
- 11:06Speaker 5: And anybody that gets in the way of my colleagues
- 11:09Speaker 5: Republican colleagues getting reelected are a problem.
- 11:12Speaker 2: All right.
- 11:12Speaker 1: So basically you got Tillu's going after anyone that potentially
- 11:17Speaker 1: risks them getting re elected, and Hegseth is his new
- 11:21Speaker 1: bullseye along with some of the things that we're seeing
- 11:24Speaker 1: in some of these other primaries. Texas an example right
- 11:26Speaker 1: here the primary runoffs. We all know what's going on there.
- 11:30Speaker 1: You've got Ken Paxson, who's been supported by the Fellowship
- 11:33Speaker 1: pack and also the tetherback Fellowship pack. But I think
- 11:36Speaker 1: we're going to see more of this moving into the
- 11:41Speaker 1: situation around midterms, especially. I'm curious how many senators, and
- 11:47Speaker 1: right now it's mostly the Senate which is at risk.
- 11:50Speaker 1: I wonder how many Senators are truly going to get
- 11:52Speaker 1: run against that don't let Clarity go through. Remember this
- 11:56Speaker 1: gets very interesting on timing because you could get a
- 11:59Speaker 1: lot of money going against anyone who stands up against
- 12:02Speaker 1: Clarity by end of maybe a July, I think that
- 12:06Speaker 1: might be the number, So be looking at it. It's
- 12:08Speaker 1: going to be very interesting right now, a lot of
- 12:10Speaker 1: money being spent on these runs. You also have the
- 12:14Speaker 1: SEC delaying a plan to allow blockchain based token is stocks.
- 12:18Speaker 1: This came last Friday. We didn't report on it, but
- 12:21Speaker 1: the key is is it starts to have some effect
- 12:24Speaker 1: I think on the rest of the market. One point
- 12:27Speaker 1: in note, and it's worth noting, is this right here,
- 12:30Speaker 1: is that the founder of Ondo was mysteriously found dead
- 12:35Speaker 1: I guess or unexpected passing. So very interesting situation. This
- 12:39Speaker 1: is a thirty year old guy head of Ondo, one
- 12:43Speaker 1: of the biggest tokenized asset platforms out there. Interesting timing here, guys,
- 12:48Speaker 1: not saying anything, just saying interesting timing, all right, So
- 12:51Speaker 1: as you see right there by the SEC, this is
- 12:55Speaker 1: slowing the entire market. You look at Ondo, you look
- 12:59Speaker 1: at some of the art WA platforms out there, and
- 13:02Speaker 1: remember this was all in place and then all of
- 13:04Speaker 1: a sudden we get the rug pull. These are the
- 13:06Speaker 1: kind of markets that are at risk right now. This
- 13:08Speaker 1: is a forecast right here projecting one hundred x growth
- 13:12Speaker 1: in tokenized assets by twenty thirty. The big names on
- 13:15Speaker 1: this Mackenzie City, Ripple, ARC, Invest, even standard Charters. So
- 13:20Speaker 1: interesting timing that all of this is happening. But when
- 13:23Speaker 1: will the SEC actually loosen this up so we can
- 13:26Speaker 1: get xtocs, so we can get onto and be able
- 13:29Speaker 1: to trade. What we are talking what they have been
- 13:31Speaker 1: promising for quite some time. Interesting time that the SEC
- 13:35Speaker 1: does this right now, just as we're getting ready to
- 13:37Speaker 1: roll into a new future. Robinhood has also cleared the
- 13:40Speaker 1: final regulatory approval for its one hundred and eighty million
- 13:43Speaker 1: dollar acquisition of wonderfive. Remember this is Kevin O'Leary's company
- 13:46Speaker 1: in Canada. They are piecing together a very strategic position
- 13:52Speaker 1: to counter what's going on with Coinbase. I think they
- 13:55Speaker 1: are coming hard for Coinbase, and this is just another
- 13:58Speaker 1: asset that kind of adds to their roster. All right,
- 14:01Speaker 1: So you've got Robin Hood, who's kind of stuck in limbo.
- 14:04Speaker 1: We're waiting on all this to clarify and get regulatory alignment.
- 14:07Speaker 1: Then you've got this happening in Hong Kong, where the
- 14:10Speaker 1: SFC is now saying, hey, we're gonna get you licensed
- 14:13Speaker 1: crypto advisory and asset management services. All this is going
- 14:16Speaker 1: to be in place as a law by the end
- 14:18Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six this year, guys. So Hong Kong
- 14:21Speaker 1: is at a full race to try to get this done.
- 14:24Speaker 1: It looks like they are going to get it done.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Which this is coming in from the Securities and Future
- 14:30Speaker 1: Commission in Hong Kong. So big news overall. If you
- 14:34Speaker 1: look at bitcoin right now, it has been the first
- 14:37Speaker 1: time we have seen a two year situation and that's
- 14:41Speaker 1: what's brewing right now. Down six percent and twenty five
- 14:44Speaker 1: thirteen percent right there year to date here in twenty
- 14:47Speaker 1: twenty six. First time we really see them back to
- 14:49Speaker 1: back years. Is bitcoin fading as the asset going forward?
- 14:53Speaker 1: Let me know what you guys think. Done in the
- 14:55Speaker 1: comments if you would be going bitcoin ethereum hype, Solana ripple,
- 15:01Speaker 1: any of those hit me in the comments. One of
- 15:05Speaker 1: the major concerns that you should be looking at right now,
- 15:08Speaker 1: especially related to bitcoin, is going to be Metaplanet. You
- 15:11Speaker 1: look at their nav right now, which is slipped under
- 15:14Speaker 1: a nav again. Last time that happened, really wasn't It
- 15:18Speaker 1: was right back here, yeah, November twenty seven, So very
- 15:21Speaker 1: interesting timing right now. Bitcoin not good for the market
- 15:24Speaker 1: in general. This would be a big deal if Metaplanet
- 15:28Speaker 1: got in any kind of sideways issues with bitcoin, because
- 15:31Speaker 1: I think that's the question that a lot of institutional
- 15:33Speaker 1: investors are asking. Right here was kind of interesting. Metaplanet's
- 15:38Speaker 1: latest sharehold benefits basically gave you discounts on bitcoin, magazine
- 15:44Speaker 1: descriptions and the conference. I think a lot of people
- 15:47Speaker 1: are frustrated around this, especially around Japanese social media. Just
- 15:52Speaker 1: to distribute difficulint and just do it, Just distribute to bitcoin.
- 15:55Speaker 1: Everybody's going to be happy. Not I don't need discounts
- 15:58Speaker 1: on this or that. I agree with that this should
- 16:01Speaker 1: be exactly what it has always been, which is distribution
- 16:05Speaker 1: of bitcoin the asset. So interesting points right now. Remember
- 16:10Speaker 1: when everybody was pointing at M two saying M two
- 16:15Speaker 1: is the indicator that drives liquidity into the crypto and
- 16:19Speaker 1: the risk asset market. Well, here you have it. This
- 16:22Speaker 1: is the thread right here. M two is as high
- 16:24Speaker 1: as it has ever been, well above back in twenty
- 16:28Speaker 1: two when we had clipped. We slipped down in twenty three,
- 16:31Speaker 1: and it has been skyrocketing since then. But yet we
- 16:34Speaker 1: are not seeing the skyrocketing approach toward risk assets. So
- 16:38Speaker 1: is M two one of the big things that I
- 16:40Speaker 1: think a lot of people were pushing to definitely not
- 16:43Speaker 1: necessarily the case for risk assets. Again, macro environments, consumer
- 16:48Speaker 1: and investor sentiment, and obviously these situations on the geopolitical
- 16:53Speaker 1: field are the issues. It appears that we have to
- 16:57Speaker 1: have so many things that go right to get into
- 17:01Speaker 1: the risk markets accelerating. If you look at where the
- 17:05Speaker 1: government is spending money, you have to look at AI,
- 17:09Speaker 1: and these numbers are crazy. In fact, they are spending
- 17:12Speaker 1: more money on AI and this kind of tech than
- 17:15Speaker 1: anywhere else in the market, which is why you are
- 17:18Speaker 1: seeing the kind of numbers that you are seeing right
- 17:21Speaker 1: now on the major stock exchanges and of course some
- 17:25Speaker 1: of the major companies out there, anything that is within
- 17:27Speaker 1: that AI realm. This is the kind of numbers that
- 17:30Speaker 1: we're starting to push to. And I think this is
- 17:32Speaker 1: a big factor here because it's not crypto oriented, at
- 17:35Speaker 1: least not yet. Maybe in the future we get some
- 17:38Speaker 1: sort of a gentic connection to AI, but right now
- 17:41Speaker 1: it is all about these primary stock products and a
- 17:44Speaker 1: lot of these new IPOs coming to market that I
- 17:47Speaker 1: think will take advantage of this. If you look quickly
- 17:49Speaker 1: at the market, as we did just a little bit ago,
- 17:51Speaker 1: there's bitcoin on another major red day. This is a
- 17:53Speaker 1: critical day for bitcoin. Eth could clip and go below
- 17:58Speaker 1: again the situation of under two thousand, so right there
- 18:02Speaker 1: was that dip we saw over the weekend. But I'm
- 18:05Speaker 1: just wondering do we see a seventeen hundred dollars eight
- 18:08Speaker 1: like some analysts are pointing at. Let me know what
- 18:11Speaker 1: you guys think. Do you think this is a selling
- 18:13Speaker 1: may go away and finish up or do you think
- 18:15Speaker 1: we continue to see downward pressure throughout the summer. We're
- 18:19Speaker 1: gonna be covering this in a lot more so stick around.
- 18:28Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
- 18:30Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
- 18:34Speaker 1: The link is in the description.