Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / AFL Preview Episode 4 - Salt River Rafters

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AFL Preview Episode 4 - Salt River Rafters · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my handsome co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB, underscore cards underscore. I think you all know the drill by now. ⁓ as always, this episode brought to you by Prospect Pulse, prospectpulse v1.com. One of the co-hosts of Bowmania 2027 and a great website for all of your Bowman prospecting, collecting, researching needs. ⁓ use it every day. Use it to source prices for today's episode. And ⁓ yeah, check it out and let me know if you have any questions or want to walk through anything. ⁓ with that being said, today's episode is number four in our series on the Arizona Fall League teams. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: And today we have who do we have, Jeremy? You you tell ⁓ underscore_underscore_: We have the Salt River Rafters. Yeah, that is consistent of Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Yankees, and the Nationals. So in total we have 12 Bowman, nope, 10 Bowman autos. ⁓ highest is Dax Kilby at 71 bucks. You can get Connor Foley as low as a smooth dollar ninety-nine. So let's see if he can raise that price up. And ⁓ move up the floor. So let's just start right at the top. Probably the most recognizable name on the roster. Well, he is the most recognizable name. Dax Kilby. ⁓ very good, very good debut last year. Went right to A ball. Like after getting drafted as a prep, hit 353. ⁓ more walks and strikeouts, 16 bags. Like didn't show he was phase in Pro Ball at all. Add in the Yankees tax, add in that he's a shortstop, and you had the making of a demon. Came out, only played in thirty-six games this year, did start showing juice right away. Four doubles, four pumps, more walks and strikeouts again, so he's controlling the zone. literally dipped his toes in at rookie ball and then played most, if not basically all of his reps. Came in A ball. ⁓ I mean he does anything that base auto is probably gonna jump back up to the triple digits. It looks like he's averaging right now about 71 bucks. You can probably get him a little cheaper. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: I can't imagine that that would be a bad buy if you can find them cheaper than that, because it's not gonna take much for a Yankee. Like, look at what Lombard started doing as soon as he got the call. Obviously, A ball in New York is a big ⁓ stretch, a long, long road to get there. But he does anything, like walks down the street correctly, he's gonna get a pump in price. So I don't think it would be a bad thing if you can find something reasonable to go up and get him. I would also be just Jaba: Yep. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ a little just curious what is like base autos did at the highest ever. But that's gonna like take Jaba: He must have been over a hundred. I I mean like like you said, it was kind of the perfect storm. I mean he came out really aggressive assignment to single A right after being drafted and you know really couldn't have put up better numbers. and even this year, really injury short in season, but when he did play he was very good. ⁓ you know, he's never not really played well. It's just a matter of how much he's played. And I think the AFL, you know, this is kinda the perfect guy for the AFL where it's like, you know, the results are underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: there the the body of work is not, ⁓ you know get get some extra reps, get thirty, thirty-five more games under your belt, and kinda show off a little hopefully. underscore_underscore_: Yep. I mean he did just have a ⁓ sale of ninety bucks yesterday, as well as one at auction today of seventy-five. So he's definitely like I mean, when you have two sales like that kind of back to back, that that's better than the seventy one average he had had when we pulled these numbers. So maybe trending in the right direction there. ⁓ I will ask, do you think now that he's in twenty six Bowman and he's getting more autos Does that put more of a premium when you see the second year, third year Bowman's? It kind of adds to the scarcity of the first, or is that just kind of a non factor, it doesn't really matter? Jaba: I'm not sure it really matters, right? I I mean We were sending some back and forth the other day, like from New Boom and Chrome there was a Yoswar Orange Auto, ⁓ for four hundred dollars and we were both just kinda like, ⁓ you know, it's not really worth it. I mean, the first will always be king and we've, you know, discussed that the non firsts are definitely, you know, worth following, knowing about you know, they're a viable option in many different ways. ⁓ but, you know, I think I think if anything underscore_underscore_: For sure. Jaba: ⁓ with what we've seen in the past few years, having non first autos really makes, you know, the casual person say, Huh, this guy must be really good because they've been pretty spot on with you know, you never want to pull a non first, but I'm I feel like the last few releases, if you're pulling a non first, it is a really good player. You know, they don't fit underscore_underscore_: It was your chase from like a product prior, almost. Jaba: Yeah, like they they they really only give ⁓ to kind of the top top guys. ⁓ you know, I've seen some Connor Griffin, ⁓ I guess it was twenty five chrome. ⁓ or no, it was twenty twenty-five Bowman. You know, those autos still go for a ton of money. ⁓ and the values there, I just don't really think that it you know, impacts the first. I think if anything it gets more people on to because, you know, for someone who's not as intense and crazy underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: crazy as us about it. You know, it kinda shows you it's like, ⁓ okay, well they figured this guy was worth putting in and the only other guys they put in were, you know, Connor Griffin and McGuffy. Yeah. So it's like okay. underscore_underscore_: Right. Magonagol Weatherhole. Like. Yeah. And it gives just collectors a genuine opportunity to get something they otherwise wouldn't. Like that Josar, if it's a first, it's a what $3,000 card or whatever it would be. Like. You get a second year color match for $400. Like. Yeah, that's a cool collector card, and it's a cool card just to have. ⁓ next up, we have Jarlin Sosana, who's a very interesting one. And Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yep. underscore_underscore_: You wanna talk about ⁓ Actually, I just went in on the other one. Jaba: ⁓ sure, yeah. Yeah. I mean, as everyone knows, I'm a huge Mets fan, huge Ju Soto guy. Susana was part of the trade to the Nationals for Juan Soto when the Padres got Juan Soto. And it's like every year, you know, James Wood gets better, you know, Abrams looks a lot better. You know, every year you think that trade can't get worse. And I say this as, you know, one of the world's biggest Ju Soto fans. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: you know, you forget that Susana was 18 when he got traded to the Nats, and he's kind of the last piece to come along here. The numbers won't wow you, ⁓ just kind of looking at him in a vacuum. I mean, 2025, definitely his best pro performance to date. 56 innings, 95 K's, which is insane. 34 walks, as you probably could have guessed, was coming, is kind of the flip side of the case. But three fifty one ERA this year, struggled a lot more. Eight appearances, only twenty innings. You know, it's hard to say where the bulk of that came. I guess he made four of the eight appearances in double A. ⁓ four seventy six ERA, twenty one K's in eleven innings. He's got the electric arm. He's gigantic. Let's see what the exact measurements are. yeah, I mean he makes Le Grange look like, you know, Luke Weaver. i i it's i it's pretty nuts. underscore_underscore_: Six six two thirty five. Hmm. Jaba: blew out his n he didn't blow out his elbow. He ⁓ blew out his lat last year. came back late this year. you know, the strikeouts were there, the ERA was pretty terrible, but it was twenty innings. there's definitely reliever risk, but he's one of those arms where it's just so electric that he's gonna have a jump. ⁓ you know, we've we've started really hammering the idea of, you know, all it takes is one video of him striking out so and so. I guess with James Woods underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: K-rate, you know, striking him out wouldn't be you know, a market mover. I think that's the first time I've sneezed on this podcast. but you know, you don't find that build off, and you don't find a 70-grade fastball often. There's serious reliever risk, and I think you should, you know, almost assume that that's where he winds up. underscore_underscore_: Sha. Jaba: But for our purpose of investing, I don't really think that that matters in the long term because you're chasing a short term moment and this guy is probably has the best chance of anyone to have a moment. I mean, I I I see him going viral before Zazweta, ⁓ Braylon Dou or Braylon Sure Brayland Doughty, but I was thinking of Kendrichio, not sure how I almost said Braylon Payne. But underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Mm-hmm. Jaba: Yeah. It it's just a great power arm. We'll see how much he actually pitches. ⁓ but you know, definitely definitely a name to know and ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: You know, as far as pitchers go on this roster, really the only other one worth noting is a similar guy, Patrick Forbes, ⁓ first rounder, bigger guy, good fastball. just a not a great injury history. I know when the Mets ⁓ got Jefferson Rojas from the Cubs for ⁓ Clay Holmes and ⁓ Tyrone Taylor, people were actually saying that there was a deal in place with Arizona that fell through due to medicals, and a lot of people kind of reverse. engineered to hypothesize that was Forbes, just looking at their top few prospects, which are limited. ⁓ You know, it kind of had to be him. When he pitched this year, he was great. 29 and two thirds innings, 41Ks to seven walks, 273 ERA. I mean that K-to-walk ratio is nuts. It basically all came at high A, but again, it's like, you know, the injury bug. We'll see how he does this year. ⁓ In the AFL. He touches 100. good spin. ⁓ another guy who's probably gonna be a bullpen arm, but he's a dynamic pitcher. He's as dynamic as they come. He's exciting. ⁓ so yeah that's kind of my ⁓ talk on the pitchers worth knowing here. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, and I just went through real quick eyeballing it all. Susana is by far and away the most expensive arm in the AFL. ⁓ the only one closest is Brandon Clark, and he's obviously some recency bias in what he did. ⁓ Susana's numbers on the face of them are inflated by his trip ⁓ double A start, where he just got he had a thirteen and a half 'cause he let up four runs on four walks. ⁓ over two and two thirds, so it ballooned his ERA. Otherwise overall this year he like Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Wasn't like the ERA is there, but he had a 228 against and 11 walks and 20 innings, and he also struck out like 37. So you're looking at almost a two to one, which is just like pure electricity. And his autos don't appear often. He was redemption only across the board, kind of like a cinche, where they don't transact often. You go to card ladder, type in Jarlan Susanna, Bowman Auto. You have the 24 you have four, five, six, you have less than ten sales in the month of. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: September and we're almost done with the month. ⁓ a true yellow PSA 10 did 750. Like you just don't see his stuff often. And when you do, it's usually pretty pricey because of the scarcity of it. That's all I have to add there. I do like Forbes. I think Forbes is good. He did well. still a fresh arm. Didn't pitch every year of college at Louisville. Kind of continued to come into his stuff. ⁓ another one 41. Forty one punches and all in thirty innings call it with seven walks and a sub two against. ⁓ a lot of rookie ball, jumped right to high A where he did very well. ⁓ that is one that I have a lot of and would probably still buy at the price he's trading at. Some but somebody I'm not buying is Demetrio Cresantes. And that's solely because I already have fifteen of his base autos, and that is the only reason. ⁓ it's nice to see that he's up north of thirty per base. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: He is their number one prospect. He is a second baseman, but I think the whole kind of like Skeens kind of broke the pitching mold. Like second base wasn't as glamorous, but now you have like JJ Weatherholt there. And I think Antonacci played there a little bit. McGonagall was thought to be playing there before he took over short. really pure hitter here from Cresantes. Four different levels. He was hurt last year, came back, has just kind of hit everywhere he's gone. Jaba: Yeah, turns out he's a great shortstop too, yeah. underscore_underscore_: He's doing it with some power, not a ton of power, ten home runs. But it is ⁓ I mean it's still overall kind of everything you want to find. He had an eight fifty four OPS. no speed though. There is no speed there. Zero bags on the year. But it's just a really pure hit tool. Don't know how attractive the profile is going to be for card collecting. He's gonna be a very good probably just takeover for Catel Marte in Arizona. type. ⁓ yeah, but he's trading thirty two bucks. Thirty three bucks. ⁓ let's see. What do you got there? Anything? Jaba: Yeah. It well i it's funny 'cause I I'm kinda noticing and I mean I know that the point of the AFL is generally for those guys who miss time during the year to kinda get extra reps. So I'm kinda stating the obvious here, but with this team more than any others, ⁓ this is pretty much just packed with those guys that we know where it's like, ⁓ well he's good when he plays, but underscore_underscore_: But Jaba: You know, he doesn't really play. I mean, when we did Glendale, I mean that's a full lineup of guys who just played a full season, right? It's Kintero, Bonham, or Davilon, South Asine. Harlan missed a little time, but I mean that that that's basically just keeping guys hot and, you know, bragging a little bit with who you got there. I mean, this team, Kilby, Susana, Crysantes, Forbes, all have missed serious time. ⁓ all of them have good surface level numbers to varying degrees. It's just a matter of can they stay healthy? And that segues right into underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: ⁓ Yasser Mercedes. ⁓ you know, former he he was a pretty big signing. Yeah, he got 1.7 million almost five years ago. Still Yeah, he's still only twenty-one, turns twenty-two later this fall, and you know underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Probably a chase back in twenty two. Jaba: He just hasn't played a ton. I mean, twenty twenty-four, eight seventy-nine OPS but sixty-one games. Last year, six forty OPS. Really struggled in single A, ninety-four games, six ⁓ three OPS there. This year, a hundred and nine games between A and high A. He was dominant in A, pretty average in high A, seven twenty-nine OPS, lot of strikeouts, forty-one steals, twelve homers. ⁓ you know, he's kind of the classic Bowman chrome boomer bus guy. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know, he hasn't missed as much time as some of these other names, but I feel like every time I see him on Twitter it's like, ⁓ he was heating up and now he's, you know, out for two weeks. ⁓ I I feel like I see that cycle repeatedly every year. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Hm. ⁓ This is a first time in his five years of Pro Ball he's cracked a hundred games played, so good for him. ⁓ hopefully he doesn't follow the way of Walker Jenkins and Erod where he just kinda keeps getting banged up throughout his way to the the Twin Cities. Jaba: Yeah. Yep, another one. Jared Thomas. ⁓ we talked about him In the last episode briefly, I went on a fairly random tangent to pull that one out of a hat. ⁓ former Rockies second rounder, ⁓ early second rounder in twenty four out of University of Texas. ⁓ twenty twenty five he was awesome. Hundred eighteen games. ⁓ nine twenty two OPS in high A, got to double A, put up a seven twenty one, but you know, still trending in the right direction. Fourteen homers, thirty three steals, just doing a bit of everything. ⁓ this year He I think he like sprained his wrist in spring training or something. Everyone was like, ⁓ he's gonna get a late start. Fast forward, he played 32 games all year. ⁓ 28 of them, double A, 746 OPS. Again, way too many strikeouts, but showed off that power speed combo. He's a guy I was actually buying heading into last year. ⁓ you know, it's just tough now between Colorado. I think we've beaten the Colorado market thing to death. But, you know, Colorado, he's a little older now. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: And there's just a lot of names that have lapped him. You know, it's not really his fault that he was hurt. But you know, his releases continue to come out. You know, I think we all get distracted by the shiny new toys, and there's just not enough there for me to say, okay, well, we should go back to him. But I do think that he's not, you know, he's not dead by any means. I think at $8, you know, he could do something. I think he could get back up to 20 at some point. You know, I'm not just fire sailing my Jared Thomas. I have a few just tucked away. way and I'm just waiting for you know him to kind of put something together. But you know, again, just kind of following with this trend with this team where it's just a lot of guys with great raw tools or talent that just cannot stay on the field. underscore_underscore_: Yep. ⁓ Yasel Solaire. He's somebody I actually have a couple cards of. Just gonna kinda keep ⁓ where they are right now. ⁓ fourth year of Pro Ball, back to back years of a seven thirty-seven OPS. home runs have incrementally come two to six to twelve to thirteen in high A this year. If he can get to that double A launching pad in Amarillo, like you could see that twenty plus and people be like, ⁓ go dust off those twenty twenty four Bowman chrome cards. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: And right now they can be had for five bucks. I'm not saying go out and buy them, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a promotion to double A next year and just starts raking. Swing and miss is a real concern. ⁓ he's at a three to one strikeout to walk ratio. No speed component of the game. You are looking at a five eleven, two hundred and thirty pound right handed hitting third baseman. The bad is what you're buying, the bad is what you need. He's showing strength. Jaba: Yep. underscore_underscore_: And if he can go on a kind of a run that that AOA's gone on in double A since his promotion, then you could hear his name again. I mean ⁓ the hitting environment's there too in in the AFL. I don't know if he's going to go off. I I I'm not a ⁓ who knows? Maybe he does. But he might even be a name just for next year, like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I I I think it's great that you mentioned, you know, he's really it it's like the skee ball ramp here. I mean he's he's flying into like the best possible underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: environments for a bat first guy. I mean he was good enough at high A all this year where I assume he'll start next year at double A. he doesn't turn twenty one until January, so he'll be twenty one in double A and you know, like you said, he's going from the AFL where the power numbers are pretty ridiculous, right up to you said I think it's Amarillo. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: Where the power numbers are ridiculous, you know, this is kinda the perfect time to buy to buy in. I don't think he's, you know, the greatest player. ⁓ in addition to the strikeouts, it looks like he has a serious ground ball problem, which is something that scares me. ⁓ after ⁓ the Brett Beatty experience. I think that that's something that I might weigh into too heavily on. But I might I might honestly buy a little bit of him. I I I think for me he's probably the buy of this episode. you know, I know that a lot of these have been, you know, more hold hold or sell. They can only go up, but you know, don't really buy. But I mean, talking about kind of his trajectory and obviously we're doing a little bit of guesswork on what that trajectory will be. ⁓ you know, if he goes back to high A next year, you know, let's pretend this never happened. underscore_underscore_: She's Right. Jaba: But you know, at at at five bucks it's just not hard to see him putting up, you know, p ridiculous numbers at double A. Do I think he's gonna be a good major league or no. Does that matter? No. All that matters is that he, you know, gets hot on Twitter on whatnot, you know, people start asking for him, and I think the path from going not even doubling from five bucks, you know, I I think the path to being a twenty, twenty-five dollar auto is really within reach. So that's my underscore_underscore_: And then Yeah. Jaba: random soapbox of the day. underscore_underscore_: I'm no disrespect to these four. I'm just gonna kind of group them all together as sub five dollar autos and maybe one of them does something, maybe not. ⁓ Andy Perez 2023 Bowman Chrome, that's before some of these kids on ⁓ whatnot even were born that are streaming now. Feels like an ancient product. Kyle DeBarge, Sean Sullivan, who made it to the big leagues this year with the Rockies, and Connor Foley. Round out the team of ⁓ Just th that rounds out the the last four Bowman autos. Sean Sullivan made it to the big leagues. Had a rough go of it. Damn near 90 RA, 16 punches, and 22 innings. He is more with a 343 average against. ⁓ just not able to strike guys out. Doesn't have that swing and miss heater. He is a ⁓ business call, sorry. He is a ⁓ he's just Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: He's a stuff or he's a performance over stuffed guy, and sometimes that just doesn't get it done, especially in somewhere like Colorado. But he's had success everywhere else he's gone. So if he could go in this offseason and make some tinkering, it wouldn't surprise me. If he comes back out and finds his niche, ⁓ kind of a funkier slot kind of guy. Like, up until this year, he's been really good throughout his entire career. Had a hundred innings last year with a sub three ERA. Had a strikeout per inning, like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: It's just tough to put him into the environment he was in. ⁓ let's see, what like Perez older twenty three in double A. Connor Foley had a seventy RA year. Jaba: Yeah, I I think DeBarge is really the only other guy worth, you know, discussing. you know, he he was the thirty third pick back in twenty twenty four. ⁓ I don't remember who the twins took earlier, but you know, just looking at the numbers I'm hoping that that was kind of a older sign to make up for an overslop pick. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, little fella, twenty three, speed. Jaba: but yeah, I mean he was in double A all this year, six seventy seven OPS, twelve homers, forty-one steals. He's a smaller guy, second baseman, five nine, one seventy-five. I think the pop is better than you would think for a guy that size, but the hit tool is also worse than you would think. ⁓ forty-one steals, good way to get noticed. I mean It i i it it's a guy who probably gets onto a forty man roster as a super utility guy. I think the speed's useful. It's just tough to man, he had sixty-six steals last year. It it it's just tough, you know, with how much he strikes out. he actually had twenty-two doubles as well this year. ⁓ you know, the bats just kind of the opposite of what you would expect for someone with that build. And while the speed's great, you know, it's just not gonna carry it. If I had to pick one of these bottom four guys underscore_underscore_: Hmm. Jaba: I would pick him at three dollars and seventy-one cents, but that's if I had to. underscore_underscore_: So you had Kalen Culpepper as a first round pick, DeBarge followed by Billy Amick and Desan Hill, who they had to pay a little bit more being a prep arm at a grapevine. So that's right. ⁓ so that's kind of where we're at. I think ⁓ how do we want to wrap this up? ⁓ I think Forbes is a buy at sub ten bucks for sure. You said Solaire's interesting, DeBarge is your sub four dollar buy. Jaba: Okay. Billy Amick met legend. Opening day, first baseman. Yep. Yep. underscore_underscore_: Cresantes is a safe bet to reach the big leagues with the hit. Kilby obviously has kind of some sky high upside being the Yankee tacks behind him with performance, and Susano might just be a freak on the mound, like six foot six, throwing a hundred and two. So yeah, that kind of wraps up the ⁓ Salt River Rafters. And we have two more to go. And looking forward to Scottsdale Scorpions and the Surprise Segueros tomorrow. Jaba: Yeah. Two more. Yep. One of those ⁓ one of those two has a lot of ⁓ names we love. So excited to get to them. As always, thank you everyone for listening. We appreciate you very much. Please don't be a stranger. Feel free to reach out to us just to talk baseball, questions, comments, concerns, ⁓ anything of that nature. ⁓ you know, we're we're all ears. So with that being said, we're signing off on this one. Let's go, Mets. See you guys. Thank you.