Latest / ACLED Audio / REPORT: Goon violence and retaliatory mob justice are escalating ahead of Kenya’s 2027 elections

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REPORT: Goon violence and retaliatory mob justice are escalating ahead of Kenya’s 2027 elections · ACLED Audio

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Goon violence and retaliatory mob justice are escalating ahead of Kenya's 2027 elections.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Executive Summary Leading up to the 2027 general election, Kenya grapples with growing violence by groups commonly referred to as goons.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Much of this violence has escalated since the 2022 election cycle, with subsequent anti-government and Gen Z demonstration movements spurring the continued use of such groups.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: The rise in goon violence has been driven by politicians who increasingly co-opt local gangs, self-defense militias, and criminal groups to assist police in violently dispersing demonstrators and opposition political gatherings.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: The use of goons has also spurred retaliatory violence by demonstrators and spontaneous mobs, driving the escalation of lynchings in Kenya and posing increasing risks to civilians.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Retaliatory vigilante mob violence reached record levels in 2025, making Kenya the most severe country in the world for this form of violence, according to ACLED data.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Vigilante mobs that lynch suspected criminals now kill more civilians in Kenya than any other armed group, including police or military forces.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: While fewer anti-government demonstrations this year have contributed to lower levels of goon violence and retaliatory mob violence than those recorded in 2025, this form of violence has nevertheless continued in 2026 and is set to exceed levels prior to 2025.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: For international businesses and nonprofit organizations increasingly moving to Nairobi, this poses heightened risks, notably to the security of personnel and employees during attempted break-ins.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Businesses, especially in areas near demonstrations and political meetings, also face a high threat of theft by goons and opportunistic rioters.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Rallies and demonstrations in the coming year will likely also limit mobility in affected areas, resulting in closures or delays along transit routes, subsequently preventing employees from reaching their workplaces.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: The two most likely scenarios for how goons are likely to operate during the 2027 election cycle depend on the level of cohesion of the political opposition.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: If the opposition fails to create a united front, it will place less pressure on the ruling United Democratic Alliance UDA led bloc to mobilize goons, resulting in lower levels of violence.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Alternatively, if the opposition unites competitive candidates into a cohesive coalition, the ruling UDA will have increased incentives to mobilize goons, break up rallies, and threaten the opposition.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: If this scenario unfolds, violence will become less spontaneous but more organized and deadly.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: The proliferation of goon violence and retaliatory vigilante mob violence poses a concerning security threat.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Goon and retaliatory vigilante mob violence in Kenya has grown significantly in recent years, having been driven by politicians who co-opt local gangs and vigilante groups, often referred to as goons.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: While politicians in Kenya have long hired goons to influence elections, the recent growth in goon-related violence is driven by a more prolific use of these groups during demonstration movements, for private security, and to break up opposition rallies.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Further, goons have disrupted businesses, government agencies, and nonprofits, especially those operating in Nairobi.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: In response, locals increasingly turn to mob violence as a retaliatory measure.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Retaliatory vigilante mob violence in response to goons presents the most concerning security threat in Kenya as the country moves into the 2027 election year.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Overall, vigilante mob violence rose 20% in 2024 compared to the previous year, and increased by 46% in 2025.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: Vigilante mob violence reached record levels in 2025, making Kenya the most severe country for this form of violence globally.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: So far, the limited number of anti-government demonstrations this year has contributed to lower levels of goon and retaliatory vigilante mob violence than those recorded in 2025.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: But the overall level is on track to greatly exceed those of previous years.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: See the graph in the report for details.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Politically, goons are used to influence voters' candidate selection, manipulate polling stations, disperse meetings of opposing political groups, and provide security during events.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Recruits receive various benefits such as cash, transportation, and weapons in return for their services, along with permission to loot from local businesses.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: During periods of political support for goons, police often operate alongside these groups, carrying out violence or looting from businesses.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: In several cases so far in 2026, officers have participated in attacks, assisted goons, or allowed them to proceed without intervening, while the exact forms of coordination between police and goons remain unclear.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Furthermore, politicians often support rival goons to compete for power.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Opposition candidates have also mobilized goons to provide similar security services, attend rallies, or attack ruling party leaders.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Collectively, these dynamics have contributed to the surge in both goon violence and retaliatory vigilante mob violence.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: In 2026, ACLED records by-election disruptions and violence in at least six counties, including when armed, masked goons attacked a Democracy for the Citizens Party vehicle in Gilgill on July 11, and when armed attackers suspected to be associated with the DCP Party blocked roads with stones in Ole Kalu on July 16 to stop vehicles from entering the compounds of the parliamentary by-election.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Attacks by politically connected armed groups on politicians and their supporters can occur in the lead up to an election, especially during campaign rallies or demonstrations, as evidenced by the violence preceding the 2022 general election.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: They can also occur after the vote tallying is completed if the results do not favor the politicians sponsoring such violence, as was the case after the 2007 elections.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: By-election violence shows that the hiring of goons is a widespread public phenomenon that poses a clear threat to the upcoming 2027 election cycle.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: While election-related violence is a long-standing challenge in Kenya, the anti-government demonstration movements in the lead up to the 2022 elections, which involved the political opposition-led Azimio Laumoja 1 Kenya Coalition Party and Gen Z groups represent a key turning point.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: Goons broke the pattern of carrying out high levels of violence only during election cycles by carrying out elevated levels of violence well past the 2022 elections and before those planned for 2027.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: So far in 2026, ACLED records 29 cases of violence involving various political militias, many of whom were goons hired by politicians.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: These include several cases of attacks against journalists and political party supporters, and armed disruptions of political rallies.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: During these demonstrations, rioters and goons disrupted businesses, government agencies, and non-profits, especially those operating in Nairobi.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Goons hired by political leaders who sympathized with the ruling UDA or broader Kenya Kwanzaa coalition patrolled the streets in numerous locations, mostly in Nairobi County, to intimidate and carry out violence against demonstrators and opposition members who turned out for many of the demonstrations.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the map in the report for details.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: As civilians grow increasingly frustrated with goons, mobs have come together to beat up or attempt lynchings against those suspected of being hired by politicians.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Mob justice is often viewed as an appropriate response due to perceived delays in police action and ineffective justice institutions.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: In an interview on July 19, 2026, Member of Parliament John Kaguccia endorsed mob violence against goons, saying that if political leaders mobilize and pay for goons, civilians will not report this to authorities.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Instead, he said, Kenyans will have a way of dealing with you.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Demonstrators have also started making counter-accusations of theft against goons, which has further increased violence levels.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Mobs, rioters, and political party supporters have acted on such counter-accusations with retaliatory violence when goons try to disrupt rallies or demonstrations.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: Unlike previous election cycles, in which levels of violence between opposing armed groups backed by political adversaries were higher, the 2022 general elections and subsequent anti-government and Gen Z demonstration movements between 2023 and 2026 were marked by less fighting between goons with differing political backing, and instead by higher retaliatory violence against goons and opposing political leaders.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Goon and vigilante mob violence is concentrated in Nairobi.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: In 2026, vigilante mob violence has taken place across 46 counties in Kenya, spanning the country's urban and rural areas.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: While these mobs have broken out against perceived threats across the country, Nairobi has been the epicenter of such violence.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: Starehe subcounty consistently records the city's highest levels of vigilante mob violence, refer to the map in the report for details.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Starehe includes Nairobi's central business district, CBD, where mobs frequently take justice into their own hands when criminals and suspected goons attempt to steal goods from local shops.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: So far in 2026, vigilante mob violence has also been frequent in Dagoretti North Sub-county, particularly around Kilimani, which has several commercial areas and is near the hotspot of violence in the CBD.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Residents interviewed in Nairobi frequently expressed reluctance to report crime to police.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Eccled data show a rising number of cases in which locals instead resort to lynching suspected criminals.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: However, some areas have become more stable.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Kasarani's subcounty, which experienced heightened levels of such violence in previous years, particularly in 2022, has been less violent so far in 2026.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: This has also been true of Matharay, a sub-county with a history of gang activity and notable outbreaks of violence during past elections, where at least seven cases of vigilante mob violence took place last year, but only a single case so far this year.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Political goons have compounded insecurity by looting businesses with impunity, often while operating alongside police and politicians.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: In a pointed example of this violence, goons armed with knives and shouting, Wantum, a political expression used by opposition members to demand a single term for current President William Ruto, threatened shopkeepers and looted goods in Nairobi's CBD on August 24, 2025.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: In another case, a group led by the Vwandani member of County Assembly entered businesses, looted property, and demanded the closure of businesses in the Donholm neighborhood of Nairobi on June 26, 2026, following an ownership dispute.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the map in the report for details.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: The danger of goon violence and retaliatory mob violence is that these forms of violence now extend well beyond election cycles and demonstration movements.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: Even after goons have been disbanded, they continue to operate outside the directives of their former patrons.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: Attempts to disband these groups push them to resort to extortion, theft, and the provision of informal security, particularly in urban and periurban settlements.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: As highlighted by the business owners interviewed, many sectors of the economy suffer from goons impunity.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: Outlook.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: They also frequently engage in criminal activities to sustain themselves between politically connected opportunities.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Goon violence and retaliatory mob violence will likely remain more sporadic in the interim period before the campaigning period begins.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: However, this violence will likely increase if large-scale anti-government or opposition-led demonstrations break out in the coming year, especially in the months immediately before the August 10, 2027 elections and after the results are announced.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: With this violence likely to remain concentrated in Nairobi, it threatens business operations and civilians' ability to continue working safely in areas of the city affected by unrest.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: As the elections approach, the CBD of Starehe and other commercial districts, such as Dagaretti North, where demonstrations have been the most common so far in 2026, will likely face the greatest risk of goon violence and retaliatory mob violence.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Nairobi has historically been an opposition stronghold, and while the campaign process for the 2027 elections is still in its early stages, it is set to become more competitive in the upcoming election cycle after the passing of opposition leader and former president Raila Odinga, and the lack of coherence among the political opposition.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Probable swing constituencies, such as Langata, Kibra, and Dagaretti North, are particularly vulnerable as groups use violence as a potential path to electoral victory.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: This risk to businesses is clear.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: Goon violence and retaliatory mob violence can disrupt operations, endanger staff, and increase the risk of theft.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: Politically sponsored goons, backed by politicians with ownership stakes or connections to various businesses, can further distort private sector competition by intimidating rivals, influencing procurement, or extracting protection payments, allowing political connections and coercive power to determine commercial success rather than the quality of goods and services.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: Recurrent unrest also raises security and insurance costs, restricts staff movement, and interrupts supply chains.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: Scenarios The level of cohesion among opposition parties will determine forms and levels of violence during the 2027 election cycle.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: Leading up to the 2027 general elections, we identify two likely scenarios for the 2027 election cycle based on the level of cohesion of opposition parties.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: The most likely involves a more fragmented opposition, which will place less pressure on the ruling UDA-led bloc to mobilize goons.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: As in previous elections, goons would likely be mobilized during the campaigning period to target opponents and on election days to disrupt voting stations.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: The potential for further violence is also likely after the results are announced.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: However, competition within the United Opposition is likely to contribute to increased confrontations among rival factions.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: Political incumbents running for re-election are also likely to face violence and threats from challengers seeking to force them from office.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: Alternatively, but less likely following the passing of Odinga, if the United Opposition or another coalition consolidates competitive candidates for the general election, politically connected goon groups will become more coordinated within both the ruling UDA and the opposition.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_00: Under this trajectory, violence will become less spontaneous, but more organized and increasingly lethal as groups receive funding and weapons to operate alongside or with the acquiescence of security forces.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: A cohesive opposition would also bring together larger demonstrations and rallies, increasing the risk of confrontations involving rioters, police, political goons, and sporadic mobs that lynch suspected criminals or those hired by politicians.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: This report was written by Accled's Africa Senior Analyst.