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Episode 156 - 11/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 156 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Tuesday, the work week rolls on.
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  It's also Election Day in America.
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  Don't worry, I'm not going to get political on you.
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  The only political point that I'll make is go cast your
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  ballot. No matter who you support, who
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  you're for, who you are against. It's a great day to be an
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  American. I just went to my local middle
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  school to go cast my ballot. So feeling good.
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  It's a beautiful day in New England here.
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  And again, exercise your right. Your voice is your power.
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  Get out there and and do your civic duty and go vote in the
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  2024 election today. Now let's put politics to the
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  side because it's obviously Election Day and that's the
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  biggest thing happening today. But we got a lot to get to on
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  today's podcast. I have a four pack of sweats for
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  you. They're all going to be NHL
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  system matches. Feeling like we might have an
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  edge here in the NHL with some really good line moves that line
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  up with good historical edges. Then we're going to look at a
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  early sharp report for College football Week 11 because there
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  are three big games that have really interesting sharp early
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  movement. So I'm excited to share those
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  early bets here with you guys on today's pod.
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  Now I buried the lead. It's Election Day in America,
• 1:41
  but also it's a good day waking up after a good night in the
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  sports betting arena. 4 and 1 + 2.51 units last night.
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  Really good night, guys. We didn't get the sweep,
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  couldn't bust out the brooms because I was hoping the Kansas
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  City Chiefs would not allow a late touchdown to force overtime
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  and kill our under. Unfortunately, they did.
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  If they got the stop, we would have gotten our under.
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  Too bad there's a little bit of scoring there late to kill our
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  over or to kill our under, I should say.
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  And the line did go over. But we did get Kareem Hunt over
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  63 1/2 rushing yards. Got a little dicey early.
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  I think he had like 16 1/2. And I'm like, oh, he's going to
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  need a big second-half. And right to our game script it
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  started to rain. And then of course he started to
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  run the ball. Cream Hunt goes over his rushing
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  prop. Thank you to Rhythm for a great
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  AI prediction there. Got the New Jersey Devils in the
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  NHL as a good sharp Rd. Favorite system match.
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  Got our Bilo over in the NBA Spurs over 214 1/2.
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  Remember that line fell all the way from like 219 to 18 down to
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  214 FS or a low total over Bilo over came through.
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  Glad to see that. But my favorite play of the day
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  yesterday guys because I think it's just maybe hopefully knock
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  on wood as I am a superstitious better.
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  Hopefully it was a good omen for a good college football or
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  college basketball season, I should say, because we cashed
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  our first college basketball ticket of the year and boy was
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  it just a chef's kiss. Beautiful blueprint of what I
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  look for when I'm betting. Pretty much all sports, but in
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  particular a spread sport like college basketball.
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  Ohio State, Texas, extremely heavily back game, primetime
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  game. Everyone's playing Texas, yet
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  the line move toward Ohio State. Sharp reverse line move,
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  contrarian heavily back game. Boom.
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  The Buckeyes not only cover but win the game outright 80 to 72.
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  So it was great to see that that textbook RLM play with the
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  Buckeyes last night come through for the team.
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  So overall, 4 and 1 + 2.51 units.
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  Let's see if we can have a good day today and get a winning
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  streak going. So I want to start off with the
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  NHL because I'll give you my thought process today.
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  Guys, I'm looking at the board today.
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  There were a couple of college football games, you know, don't
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  twist my arm. I'll always find a bet in a, you
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  know, college football game early week.
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  But I didn't see a ton. Miami, Ohio Ball State, Bowling
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  Green, Central Michigan. Not a ton of sharp movement.
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  Both lines went to the favorites.
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  Both totals fell a little bit. Looks like there could be some
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  weather in tonight's game. So my initial thought was, you
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  know, maybe these totals are dropping because it's going to
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  be very windy. Couple windy under system
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  matches. But Long story short, didn't
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  have conviction on anything in college tonight.
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  There's no NBANBA is off today and there's not a ton in college
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  hoops. There's a few games here, but
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  again, some big numbers like everyone's favored by like 20 or
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  30 points today. So I said, hey, I don't want to
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  force a sport that isn't you know, showing me anything at
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  first glance. Let's go to a sport where we are
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  a little bit hot right now and we have some really good system
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  matches and that is the NHL. So if you're a hockey, a puck
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  head, today's the today's pod is for you.
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  So 4 bets overall. We find a way to get three of
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  them. First one for me, Calgary Flames
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  and the Montreal Canadiens. Now I'm going to go lay it here
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  with Calgary on the road, this game, 7:00 game here tonight.
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  ESPN Plus. By the way, if you want to watch
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  a lot of these games, they're all ESPN Plus.
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  I'm very happy to pay for that app, unlike other apps I'm not
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  happy to pay for. But if you want to sweat these
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  games and watch them, ESPN Plus has pretty much all of them.
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  Anyway, sharp line move toward Calgary.
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  And this game opened at basically a pick em.
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  It was around -110 both sides, Calgary at Montreal.
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  Now both teams aren't great. Calgary is 6, five and one on
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  the year. Montreal is worse, 4-7 and one,
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  but open at a pick. And what do we always talk about
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  when a game opens at a pick? It could be a baseball game.
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  It could be a spread sport, but money line sport like hockey,
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  you open at a pick, OK, where's the line going?
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  Where, you know, where does it move toward?
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  Because maybe wise guys have it as a pick as well, which means
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  no edge, no reason to bet it. But there's a chance that, you
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  know, probably a pretty good chance that some sharps out
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  there who set their own numbers, they say, no, it shouldn't be a
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  pick. This team should be favored a
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  little bit more. So let's hit them.
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  Let's let's hit that number and 'cause that pick them to move in
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  favor of one team or the other. And the team move in favor to is
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  Calgary opening -110 on the road now they are up to around -140
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  some shops even as high as like -145 So ever since the game was,
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  you know, able to be bet all movement and liability has come
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  in here on Calgary. Guys.
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  Calgary is getting around 70% of bets and dollars across the
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  market. So kind of just a combination
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  here of a lot of, you know, public and and sharp support.
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  But again, hockey is not a big public sport.
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  So I don't tend to, you know, worry about that too much.
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  But the lines going to Calgary and they match a ton of systems.
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  Both missed the postseason. Take the favorite.
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  So both teams missed the playoffs last year, Maybe not
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  that that good. Just take the favorite.
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  That system is 31 and 15 this year, 67 percent, 12% ROI.
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  It's 64% since 2021. So boom, we got a match there on
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  Calgary, another Calgary system match rested Rd. favorite.
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  If you've had at least two days between your last game in the
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  current game, you're rested, you're on the road, you're
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  favored. That system is 40 and 23 this
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  year, 63 percent, 5% ROI. And then another system Rd.
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  favorites with Steam against an opponent who missed the
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  playoffs. So you're getting the Steam
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  $0.10 or more, tells you the market is taking in sharp money
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  in your favor. You're the road favorite.
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  You're playing a team who didn't make the playoffs.
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  That system is 17 and 10 this year, 63 percent, 6% ROI.
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  And that's 62% since 2021. So 3 good system matches here on
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  Calgary lines up with the line move in their favor.
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  They have the better offense, 2.8 goals a game versus 2.7, the
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  better defense to giving up 3.1 versus 4 and hopefully there's
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  an edge here in net for the Calgary Flames.
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  You have Dustin wolf going numbers aren't great, 3.19 goals
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  against nine O 7 save percentage, but he's better than
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  Sam Montembo. So hopefully we can get to
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  Montembo. He's got a 3.4, three goals
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  against, 894 save percentage. And if we get goal differential
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  kind of a snapshot you'll get, you know, points for or, you
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  know, runs four runs against, you know, just a quick are you
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  plus or minus? Both teams are minus Calgary on
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  the year though -3 goal differential.
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  Montreal's -17 So hopefully this is a play here that Calgary can
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  come through for us guys. Three good system matches, good
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  sharp pick them to favorite line move.
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  I'm on the Calgary Flames hopefully to start the night
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  right. I got the Flames at -140 next
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  one for you, Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres.
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  This is a another 7:00 game early ESPN plus, but we've seen
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  something similar in this one. This was basically a pick em as
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  well. Ottawa comes in six and five.
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  Buffalo is 4-7 and one you have Senators having won two of their
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  last three. Sabres have dropped three
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  straight. So once again, odds makers, this
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  should be a basically a pick em game.
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  So we open out a pick and just like we saw the pick up to
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  Calgary, this line move is a pick up to Ottawa.
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  So I'm gonna go Senators here guys, I'm laying with the
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  Senators. I got Ottawa at -120 but first
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  thing I noticed our opener on a pick em minus one O 5 -, 110
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  both sides. Now you're up to Ottawa at -120
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  So we've seen about a 10 cent move in their favor, telling us
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  smart money is going with the Senators.
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  They're getting 60% bets, 64% dollars, so a little bit low
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  bets, higher dollars. But once again, I'm playing my
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  system matches tonight. I'm taking the teams guys that
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  are popping with system matches. Both missed the postseason.
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  Take the favorite again, 31 and 1567% this year.
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  Rested Rd. favorite two days or more between your last game, 63%
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  this season. Then there's some other systems.
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  Rd. favorite with steam against team who missed the postseason.
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  17 and 10 this year. I have two more.
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  Let's see, fave off a win, opponent missed post and road
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  fave off win. Those are both around 63%
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  overall. So a lot of matches you're
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  popping on Ottawa. And once again, goalies.
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  You know goalies are important. If you're betting baseball,
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  you're focusing on the starting pitcher.
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  In hockey, you really got to be conscious of these goalies.
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  They can have a big impact on the game.
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  But if you look at the Otto Senators, Lenis Olmark picked
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  him up from the Bruins over the offseason.
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  He's been good. 2.6 two goals against, 9O2 save percentage,
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  Uko Pekka Lewokinen for Buffalo, 3.16 goals against, 893 save
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  percentage. So I would give the check mark
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  there to Olmark, much better numbers.
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  Also, he did not start in the last game, so he's rested.
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  He's coming off a game off now. Better offense here for Ottawa.
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  3.8 goals a game versus 3 defensively, they're only giving
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  up three versus 3.5 for Buffalo and special teams.
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  Power play 33% versus only 9% and penalty kills 77% versus
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  72%, but again, open at a pick. Lines going up to Ottawa.
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  Better goaltending system matches.
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  I'm going Ottawa Senators guys got the sends at -120 next one
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  for you, Tampa Bay and Saint Louis.
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  Looking at the Lightning and the Blues now going into this one.
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  8:00 ESPN plus game. We have Tampa Bay seven and
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  five. They've lost two straight,
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  however, which is going to factor into my handicap for this
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  one. But the Blues are six and six.
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  They just snapped A3 game skid. They had a big win over Toronto
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  four to two their last game. What do we see across the market
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  here? Well, this game open Tampa Bay
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  around a -, 150 Rd. favorite, so decently healthy Rd. favorite
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  here. And all money has gone further
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  on Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay open -150 now they're
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  up to -170 some shops even as high as -175 now Tampa Bay is
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  getting 87% bets, 84% dollars. So again, big majority of bets
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  and dollars in their favor. But again, hockey not a public
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  sport, so it doesn't matter to me too much.
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  I really put more focus in line moves in hockey than I do with
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  the percentages. But to me it's at least
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  something to be aware of when it comes to the splits.
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  But anyway, all system matches on Tampa Bay here you have Rd.
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  favorite off a loss versus opponent off a win.
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  Remember this one guys, this is our favorite system 10 and two
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  this year 83%. It's 70% since 2023 started last
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  year Rd. favorite who made the post season last year 33 and
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  2062% rested Rd. favorite 63% Rd. fave with steam versus
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  opponent who missed 63%. So all matching here, I got 4
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  good systems on Tampa Bay coincides with a line move in
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  their favor. Hopefully.
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  Goaltending once again is our is to our advantage.
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  We have Andre Vasilevsky, the stud for Tampa in net.
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  He's having another good year. 2.5 four goals against, nine O,
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  6 save percentage against Jordan Bennington.
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  Somehow he broke my heart in 2019 when he beat the Bruins,
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  but really hasn't been a great goalie. 2.87 goals against, nine
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  O 3 save percentage. Better offense for Tampa Bay.
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  2.8 goals a game versus 2.7 and better power play. 20% versus
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  13%. And I'll put a little edge here
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  when I was kind of laying out, you know, both teams, what
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  they've done recently mention this.
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  But to me, Tampa off of two losses, that should say
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  something. They lost five to three to
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  Minnesota. They lost seven to four to
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  Winnipeg. This is a game where I think
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  you're going to get their best effort.
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  There's a championship, you know, character team off 2
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  losses. I think they're going to be
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  motivated, hopefully to get a win here and get back in the
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  green. So sharp line move, tons of
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  system matches. I'm on Tampa Bay, I got the
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  Lightning at -170 last bit of the night, you know, we got to
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  find a little bit of a rest first tired angle.
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  LA Kings, Minnesota Wild. This is another 8:00 game.
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  ESPN plus Kings come in 7-3 and three, Minnesota 8-1 and two.
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  So both teams been pretty good this year, both coming off wins.
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  Kings beat Nashville three. O Wild beat Toronto 2 to one in
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  overtime. What have we seen across the
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  market in this one sharp line move toward Minnesota.
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  Give me the Wild guys. The Wild open this game around a
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  -, 155 home favorite. Now you've seen the Wild creep
• 13:13
  up to -175 even -180 at some shops.
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  So big, you know, 20-25 cents team move in their favor.
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  You're getting 87% bets, 82% money on Minnesota.
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  Again, heavy share bets in dollars.
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  Goaltending though, big advantage here.
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  Jonas Gustafson for Minnesota or Philip Gustafson at one of these
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  Gustafson's anyway, he's been a backup most of his career, but
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  he's when he's played last couple years he's been really
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  good so far this year. 2.1 two goals against, 9/24 save
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  percentage. I believe it's going to be
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  Riddich for the Kings because Kemper played last night.
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  This is second leg of the back-to-back.
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  So Riddich if he plays, which he probably will 3 point O nine
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  goals against 870 save percentage.
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  So Gustafson much better in net this year.
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  Better offense, 3.7 a game versus 3.2 better defense, 2.4
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  versus 3 better power play, 22% versus 15%.
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  But here's where it gets good. LA Kings are on the second leg
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  of a back-to-back and they're playing their third game in four
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  days. Very tough spot for the Kings.
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  I want to fade the Kings tonight.
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  Wild, meanwhile, have been off for a couple days and they're
• 14:21
  only playing their second game in four days.
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  So much more rested with Minnesota.
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  By the way, the three and O at home.
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  They've been really good. And here are some system
• 14:29
  matches. Favorite versus team on the
• 14:31
  second leg of a back-to-back this year.
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  It's 22 and 971 percent, 10% ROI at 69% since 2021 and both off a
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  win. Take the favorite 19 and 968
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  percent 9% ROI. So that also matches here with
• 14:46
  Minnesota. So you had all up guys, good
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  sharp line move as well as a system match here.
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  Rest first tired. I want to fade the kings on a
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  back-to-back. Give me the red hot.
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  Let's stay hot Minnesota Wild. I got the Wild at -175 S,
• 15:01
  Calgary, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Ottawa.
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  And remember, these are minus numbers.
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  I believe minus numbers in hockey because you see favorites
• 15:09
  do better overall compared to other sports.
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  But remember, always bet to risk first bet to win.
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  You're not if you're with me, if you're with me on any of these
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  bets, like for instance, Minnesota -175 you're not
• 15:20
  risking 1.75 units to win one unit.
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  You're just risking your one unit, always risking one unit.
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  I just want to mention that because if you if you always bet
• 15:27
  to win and you lose on favorites, you're going to get
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  hurt quite a bit more. So always bet tourists first bet
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  to win for all these bets here. But let's see if we can maybe
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  find a way to get three of them. That would be great.
• 15:37
  Now to finish up the pod today. Just want to get a little
• 15:40
  excited about college football this weekend because I noticed a
• 15:42
  bunch of good games and a bunch of really good early line moves.
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  So let me tell you about a few of them.
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  First one that caught my eye, BYU in Utah, 10:15 PM Eastern
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  Time Saturday night, extremely heavily back game.
• 15:54
  BYBYU comes in eight and O ranked 9th.
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  They beat UCF 37 to 24. One out right as a 2 point Rd.
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  dog. That was a sharp move.
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  UCF just didn't come through. I get a little annoyed by that,
• 16:07
  that box score right there cuz I loved UCF in that game anyway.
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  Utah four and four, they started four and O, they've lost four
• 16:13
  straight. Just came up short against
• 16:14
  Houston. 1714 did not cover it. Lost out right as a 5 point Rd.
• 16:19
  favorite. What do we see across the market
• 16:21
  here? Well, everyone's playing BYUBYU
• 16:23
  open as a four and a half point Rd. favorite. 84% of bets are
• 16:27
  going BYU. But you know, we what we like
• 16:30
  guys, this line's going to Utah. Utah went from plus 4 1/2 down
• 16:34
  to +4, and a lot of books are even down to 3 1/2.
• 16:37
  So if 84% of the public is hammering BYU, they got greedy
• 16:41
  because they went against the sharp move and they survived on
• 16:44
  BYU last week. They're saying this thing's easy
• 16:46
  late with BYU. They'll roll.
• 16:48
  However, lines dropping toward Utah.
• 16:50
  Utah is only getting 16% of spread bets in one of the most
• 16:53
  heavily backed games of the night right now.
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  It's the second most heavily bet Bama.
• 16:57
  LSU was the most bet as at this point, but that is great
• 17:00
  contrarian value. They're also a buy low unranked
• 17:03
  versus ranked opponent. Sell high spot Coral to betting
• 17:07
  dog low total, very low total of 40 1/2.
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  So if we're getting a dog plus 4 here, again, harder for the
• 17:13
  favorite to cover the number with lower or fewer points
• 17:16
  expected and hopefully the utes will play some defense.
• 17:18
  They're only giving up 16 1/2 points a game versus almost 20
• 17:22
  for BYU. So extremely heavily back game.
• 17:25
  Everyone's going BYU. This lines falling down to Utah
• 17:28
  guys. I think we may get down to 3
• 17:30
  1/2. Some books are there, most are
• 17:32
  still at 4. I actually in pocket already.
• 17:34
  Bet this game I put in Utah +4 for Saturday night.
• 17:39
  Next one for you, Georgia and Ole Miss should be a great game
• 17:42
  here in the SEC 3:30 PM Eastern Time.
• 17:45
  This one will be on ABC. Georgia comes in seven and one
• 17:48
  ranked second in the country. They've won four straight.
• 17:51
  Just took down Florida 3420. Did not cover.
• 17:54
  They were -14 1/2 in that one. Ole Miss seven and two ranked
• 17:57
  16th. They've won three of their last
• 17:59
  four. Just crushed Arkansas 63 to 31,
• 18:02
  easily covering as an 8 point Rd. favorite.
• 18:04
  So what have you seen across the market here?
• 18:07
  Well, all short sharp line movement toward Lane Kiffin and
• 18:10
  Ole Miss Georgia open this game. Early look headline was as high
• 18:14
  as Georgia minus 6 1/2 on the road.
• 18:17
  It got readjusted down to Georgia -3 and public is
• 18:20
  hammering Georgia 82% of bets. I get it.
• 18:23
  Second ranked team in the country only laying 3.
• 18:25
  Take it all day, right? However, this way, 82% of bets
• 18:29
  go in Georgia. Guys, this line is down to 2
• 18:31
  1/2. So the line keeps falling toward
• 18:33
  Ole Miss, even though everyone's playing Georgia.
• 18:36
  Tells me Ole Miss has great contrarian value.
• 18:38
  Only 18% of bets. Good sharp reverse line
• 18:41
  movement. Their conference dog built in
• 18:43
  familiarity, leveling the playing field, benefiting the
• 18:45
  team getting points. They're also a dog who can score
• 18:48
  system match Jackson Dart 42 points per game.
• 18:52
  So keep pace or backdoor cover. I have seen some under money
• 18:55
  show up. Some of these books were as high
• 18:57
  as 55 1/2 down to 55. Could it could be a little bit
• 19:00
  rainy in this one. So keep an eye on it.
• 19:02
  So Ole Miss sharp as a tack, but they're minus they're plus 2
• 19:07
  1/2. I missed the key number of
• 19:08
  three. I'm going to wait this thing
• 19:10
  out. I'm going to see if I can wait
• 19:11
  and get Ole Miss +3 because right now I don't have the key
• 19:15
  number. If it gets down to two, I'm kind
• 19:16
  of screwed anyway, which would also make me almost more
• 19:19
  interested because it would be sharper and keep moving toward
• 19:22
  the Rebels. But I missed the three.
• 19:23
  It's 2 1/2 juiced up toward Georgia.
• 19:25
  I'm going to wait. I'm I'll be on Ole Miss, but I'm
• 19:27
  going to try to hold off for Ole Miss +3.
• 19:30
  Then one last game for you, Iowa State in Kansas.
• 19:33
  Who is who is is disturbed enough to bet this one with me?
• 19:37
  I like Kansas here guys as a home dog.
• 19:41
  Iowa State comes in seven and one ranked 17th.
• 19:43
  This is a 330 game Saturday afternoon by the way on FS1.
• 19:48
  But Iowa State 7 and one ranked 17th but just lost their first
• 19:51
  game of the year. Lost to Texas Tech 2322 as a 13
• 19:55
  half point home favorite. You know, Kansas hasn't been
• 19:58
  great. Two and six just lost to K State
• 20:00
  2927 but did cover as a nine and a half point Rd. dog.
• 20:04
  So what have you seen across the market here?
• 20:06
  Well, Iowa State open at -3 1/2 on the road.
• 20:08
  Now, to me, that tells you something.
• 20:10
  Iowa State's seven and one ranked 17th.
• 20:12
  Kansas is 2 and six. Why is Iowa State only opening,
• 20:16
  laying 3 1/2 on the road? Shouldn't Iowa State be -7 or
• 20:19
  more? That tells you something right
• 20:21
  off the bat, guys. Tells you that there's some
• 20:23
  respect for Kansas in this spot. Or maybe not as much belief in
• 20:26
  Iowa State, whichever way you want to look at it.
• 20:28
  But anyway, public's going. Iowa State, of course.
• 20:31
  Ranked team 84% bets. But this line fell away from
• 20:35
  Iowa State -3 1/2 down to -3 so the line is falling toward
• 20:39
  Kansas. Kansas is only getting 16% of
• 20:41
  bets, but 42% of dollars at DraftKings.
• 20:44
  So good low bets, higher dollars, draft bet split.
• 20:47
  You also have a really good buy, low unranked conference dog for
• 20:51
  sell, high ranked opponent. Jayhawks rest first, tired as
• 20:55
  well. Kansas is coming off a buy,
• 20:57
  hopefully rested, ready to go. Use a couple weeks of extra game
• 21:00
  planning. Dial something up for Iowa
• 21:02
  State. We did see a windy under this
• 21:04
  total was 51 1/2 down down to around 50 1/2.
• 21:06
  And it's going to be a little bit windy there, but I like
• 21:09
  Kansas in this spot, guys. Kansas plus three.
• 21:13
  I'm considering grabbing that right now because I was trying
• 21:16
  to hold out and say, can I get Kansas, you know, plus 3 + 3
• 21:20
  1/2. Now let me just pull it up for
• 21:22
  you guys because I want to kind of think about, I'm actually
• 21:25
  wondering myself, should I bet it right now?
• 21:27
  Because I want to get the 3 1/2. So I want to just take a look
• 21:30
  real quick at the juice and kind of see where it's leaning
• 21:34
  because really the juice is going to tell me whether I
• 21:36
  should bet it now or wait. So I'm pulling pulling them all
• 21:39
  up. OK, Couple looks are down to
• 21:41
  three, 2 1/2 and the juice is on the plus 3 Kansas plus three at
• 21:46
  -115. So I'm actually going to bet
• 21:48
  this right now. So little, little, little
• 21:50
  teachable moment there on the pod, or at least how I think
• 21:53
  through these things. But again, 2 1/2 Caesars and
• 21:57
  FanDuel are down to 2 1/2, but bet MGM and ESPN bet are plus
• 22:00
  three at -115. So I'm going to put that in
• 22:02
  Kansas at +3. But again, why did line open so
• 22:06
  short? It's moving toward Kansas.
• 22:08
  They rested. Maybe Iowa State isn't as good
• 22:10
  as we think. I'm taking the +3 with Kansas
• 22:13
  and I'm putting that in right when I finish this pot here.
• 22:16
  So that about does it guys. Another episode here of the all
• 22:18
  systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 22:22
  And we we talked a lot of hockey and a lot of college football.
• 22:25
  Don't worry tomorrow we'll get back to NBA huge NBA day
• 22:28
  tomorrow and we should have you know, college basketball
• 22:31
  tomorrow as well. So so we can have a winning
• 22:33
  night tonight. Now this is the part of the pod
• 22:35
  where we wrap things up and I start off by asking a favor of
• 22:38
  you. Could you please do me a solid?
• 22:40
  Can you do me a favor? Could you please give this
• 22:42
  podcast a five star review? If you're listening on Spotify
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  or iTunes or any other platform and you can go to rate and
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  review and give it five stars, it'll only take you a couple
• 22:50
  seconds. It would mean a lot to me.
• 22:52
  I want to get those, those five star reviews as high as we can
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  go because it gains more support for the pod and hopefully will
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  continue to rise up the ranks. So that'll be very, very cool.
• 23:02
  If you could give it a five star review if you want to leave a
• 23:04
  good note or review if you want to click the follow button.
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  That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
• 23:08
  If you want to recommend it to a friend, that all would be
• 23:11
  fantastic as well. Secondly, if you enjoy this
• 23:14
  style of betting, you look forward to the breakdown.
• 23:17
  So you're learning a new way to to read, you know to approach
• 23:20
  sports betting by reading the market, looking at what the
• 23:23
  percentage of bets are telling you.
• 23:24
  Where's the public, where's the sharps, where's the line going
• 23:26
  where the system matches betting games with your head and not
• 23:29
  your heart. If this style of betting appeals
• 23:31
  to you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting
• 23:33
  or you want to maybe kind of support the team or give it as
• 23:36
  a, or help out a friend there, you know, out there somewhere
• 23:39
  who loves betting and doesn't know, doesn't have any clue or
• 23:42
  way to approach it. Well, guess what?
• 23:44
  I wrote a book that you should buy for them or buy for
• 23:46
  yourself. Just go to Amazon.com and type
• 23:48
  in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 23:51
  That's my book. It's got everything I've learned
• 23:53
  in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
• 23:55
  to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
• 23:57
  place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
• 24:00
  how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
• 24:03
  the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 24:04
  So pick up a copy, holidays are not too far off.
• 24:07
  It makes a great easy stocking stuffer and hopefully you can
• 24:11
  learn a thing or two. And when you grab the book,
• 24:13
  bring it to the sports book, I'll sign it for you and I'll
• 24:16
  buy you a beer or a ginger ale. We'll sweat some games together
• 24:19
  next. Have you taken advantage of your
• 24:21
  7 day free trial of Rhythm or Juice Real yet?
• 24:23
  Well, hope you have. Hopefully it's helping you win.
• 24:26
  I think it is, but if not, I still want you guys to go do
• 24:28
  that. Go sign up for Rhythm and Juice
• 24:30
  Real, my two favorite sports betting apps that I've partnered
• 24:33
  with. Rhythm is great for their AI
• 24:34
  backed models and predictions for player props and game bets.
• 24:38
  Just look no further than our guy Cream Hunt going over last
• 24:41
  night cuz Rhythm recommended that we play the over and it was
• 24:44
  able to cash. But then Juice reel also great
• 24:46
  for their Robo Jackson best bet picks that come out each day at
• 24:49
  noon. If you want to tell those
• 24:51
  they're AI selected picks. You can also good grind out some
• 24:55
  arbitrage opportunities each day.
• 24:56
  There's a lot in the NBA right now for the grinders out there.
• 25:00
  Just follow the risk ratios and you're guaranteed a profit.
• 25:03
  Also, looking at sharp mush plays indicators, figuring out
• 25:06
  OK, the best betters in the app are on this side.
• 25:08
  The bad betters are on that side.
• 25:10
  I really like just looking at those indicators because they
• 25:12
  either validate my play or maybe make me take a step back and
• 25:15
  say, oh, it might, maybe not on the right side.
• 25:17
  But then also you're going to get great easy ways to shop for
• 25:20
  the best line, find the book giving you the best number.
• 25:23
  And of course, always remember to sync up your sports books to
• 25:25
  the app that we'll get all the great data that comes along with
• 25:28
  it. So give both a shot.
• 25:30
  Juice Reel and Rhythm, please sign up in this particular way.
• 25:33
  Click those custom links that are located in the bio
• 25:35
  description of the pod. Like today it'll say episode
• 25:38
  156. Josh dishes out a four pack of
• 25:41
  NHL bets, yadda, yadda, yadda. Scroll below that.
• 25:43
  There should be a link to Rhythm and a link to Juice Reel.
• 25:45
  Click those links. You'll get right in.
• 25:47
  Get your 7 day free trial started.
• 25:49
  So that about does everybody, if you haven't yet gone to the
• 25:52
  polls, get out there and go, go, you know, make your voice heard.
• 25:56
  And what's cliche, but it's pretty cool.
• 25:58
  We live in a country with free and fair elections.
• 26:01
  So that that's pretty awesome. Not all countries are as lucky
• 26:04
  as we are. So go do your most patriotic
• 26:06
  thing you can do today and go vote no matter who you are
• 26:09
  supporting. But as always, guys, I'll end
• 26:11
  the pod with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
• 26:15
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 26:18
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
• 26:20
  Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 26:23
  Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
• 26:26
  Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
• 26:28
  true grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 26:30
  number runners. Where the lowest juice possible
• 26:32
  is found at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 26:35
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 26:37
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 26:40
  you're going to walk up to me and show me some nice tickets
• 26:43
  from last night. Spurs over.
• 26:45
  Ohio State in the points. Devil's Cream Hunt over.
• 26:48
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 26:50
  you. We'll post about the book Sweat
• 26:51
  sharp and terrain place together.
• 26:53
  So that about does it. Everybody, as always, remember 4
• 26:56
  and one, one and four, two and two.
• 26:59
  You know, whatever the case may be, the record doesn't always
• 27:02
  indicate exactly your performance.
• 27:05
  In a way it does. In a way it doesn't.
• 27:07
  But here's the thing. It should not, you know, change
• 27:10
  your approach each day in the betting market.
• 27:12
  Whether you had a good day or bad day, you're treading water.
• 27:14
  Always think we're trying to make bets, data-driven bets
• 27:17
  based on our head and not our heart.
• 27:18
  By reading the market and really kind of abiding by these tenants
• 27:22
  that we always talk about against the public, with the
• 27:24
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
• 27:27
  line value. Will the sharp side win every
• 27:29
  bet? No, it won't.
• 27:31
  It's impossible. Sports betting is difficult, but
• 27:33
  it's going to win a majority of the time, 55 to 60%.
• 27:36
  That's why we always want to be with the sharps and against the
• 27:39
  drunk guys at the bar. If we can do that, we're going
• 27:41
  to be successful sports bettors. So have a great day everyone.
• 27:44
  Get out there and vote and we'll be right back at it tomorrow for
• 27:48
  episode 157 on a big Wednesday of the All Systems Go Sports
• 27:53
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 27:56
  Good luck everybody, have a great day.