Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 1st, 2026: U.S. Responds To Iran’s Latest Peace Proposal & U.S. Troops Leave Iraq

Transcript

October 1st, 2026: U.S. Responds To Iran’s Latest Peace Proposal & U.S. Troops Leave Iraq · The President's Daily Brief

0:12
It's Thursday,
0:13
the first of October.
0:14
Look at that,
0:15
a brand new month.
0:17
Hm,
0:17
can Christmas tunes be far away?
0:19
I don't think so.
0:20
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:22
I'm Mike Baker,
0:23
your eyes and ears
0:24
on the world stage and still on the road,
0:27
still in my
0:28
posh digs somewhere in London.
0:31
All right,
0:31
let's get briefed.
0:32
First up,
0:33
the diplomatic channel with Iran reportedly remains open,
0:37
with Qatar carrying messages between both sides
0:40
even as the US rolls out another round of sanctions.
0:43
I know
0:44
it's like Groundhog Day,
0:46
but with a repressive Iranian regime.
0:49
If Paxitani Phil sees his shadow,
0:51
we get 6 more weeks of optimistic talk about
0:54
some type of negotiations that might be underway.
0:57
Later in the show,
0:58
US forces have left Iraq after more than two decades,
1:01
raising new questions about
1:03
whether Iran-backed militias or ISIS
1:06
could exploit the security vacuum.
1:08
Well,
1:08
let me clear up that mystery.
1:10
Yes,
1:11
of course Iran-backed militias and ISIS
1:13
will exploit that security vacuum.
1:15
I am sorry to spoil the suspense.
1:17
Plus,
1:18
Pakistan says it will defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis by
1:22
whatever means are available,
1:24
raising the prospect that Islamabad
1:26
could be drawn directly into the fight.
1:28
And in today's Back of the Brief,
1:30
Britain says a Beijing research institute is secretly
1:34
serving as a front for Chinese intelligence.
1:36
Oh,
1:37
say it ain't so.
1:38
And for that I declare today's back of the brief
1:41
the winner of this week's,
1:43
possibly this month's PDB statement of the obvious award.
1:46
But first,
1:47
today's PDB spotlight.
1:49
Despite President Trump publicly rejecting Iran's latest peace proposal,
1:53
some folks are saying that the diplomatic channel
1:55
between Washington and Tehran is still open.
1:58
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Sarachi has now received
2:02
reportedly formal US feedback
2:04
on Tehran's seven-day trust building plan,
2:07
is that what they're calling it,
2:09
through Qatari mediators.
2:11
And that is about as moronic a name for what
2:13
you might call a plan between the US and Iranian regimes
2:16
as you could conjure up a 7 day trust building plan.
2:21
According to Reuters,
2:22
Erachi received the response in Doha on Tuesday
2:25
and was expected to take it back to Tehran
2:28
for discussions with Iran's leadership,
2:30
whomever that might be.
2:32
The exact contents of the American response have not been made public,
2:35
but we do know something important about where the talks stand or supposedly stand.
2:40
The main disagreement is reportedly over sequencing.
2:43
In other words,
2:44
the two sides
2:45
may not be arguing over every component of the plan
2:48
so much as the order in which those steps would happen.
2:52
Iran wants to know what it gets and when.
2:54
Washington wants to know what the regime is prepared to do first.
2:58
Iran's proposal calls for a seven-day trust building period,
3:01
I just can't say that often enough,
3:03
designed to move both sides back toward an expanded version of the
3:06
memorandum of understanding
3:08
reached in June.
3:09
Well,
3:09
that worked out well.
3:10
That earlier framework briefly reduced hostilities and
3:13
Included provisions involving the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program,
3:18
although that particular provision was simply
3:21
supposedly to say that at some point
3:23
both sides would talk about Iran's nuclear program.
3:26
The latest Iranian proposal again centers on reopening
3:29
the Strait of Hormuz and restoring normal maritime traffic
3:33
if certain conditions are met.
3:35
Tehran has also been seeking relief from the US naval blockade,
3:38
access to frozen Iranian funds,
3:40
and waivers that would allow
3:41
some oil sales to resume.
3:44
President Trump publicly rejected those terms last week,
3:46
but that was publicly.
3:47
Apparently
3:48
the rejection did not reportedly end the talks.
3:52
Qatar kept moving messages between Washington and Tehran,
3:55
and the US ultimately sent Iran a formal response.
3:59
So the public answer to Tehran's original offer was no,
4:02
but behind the scenes the negotiations kept moving.
4:06
Iran wants economic relief before giving up some of the leverage that it still has,
4:10
particularly,
4:11
of course,
4:11
around the waterway.
4:13
Washington wants Iran to take concrete steps first,
4:16
especially on the nuclear side,
4:18
before easing the existing pressure.
4:20
For now
4:21
there is still no agreement,
4:23
and while that effort is moving through Qatar,
4:25
Washington is doing something else at the same time.
4:28
They're increasing the pressure on the regime.
4:31
The Treasury Department announced another round of sanctions Tuesday
4:35
targeting 10 individuals and entities in Iran,
4:37
Hong Kong,
4:38
and Pakistan
4:39
accused of helping Iran procure weapons and military components.
4:43
But it does make you wonder
4:44
if sanctions work,
4:46
and they certainly appear to work when combined with actual consequences.
4:50
Why not just unleash them all at once?
4:53
The sanctions are part of what
4:54
the administration calls Operation Economic Outcast.
4:57
It's a campaign
4:58
designed to cut Iran off from the financial and commercial networks
5:02
that keep its military supplied.
5:05
US officials say the latest targets
5:07
helped Iran's Defense Ministry obtain components used in weapons programs,
5:11
including missiles and drones.
5:12
The goal is,
5:13
of course,
5:14
to make it harder and more expensive
5:16
for the regime to replace what it's lost over the course of this war.
5:20
And the new sanctions are landing at a difficult
5:22
time for the Iranian regime and their economy.
5:25
The rial fell to a new record low this week,
5:27
with more than 2.5 million riyals
5:30
trading for $1.
5:32
Iran's economy was already under heavy sanctions and strained before the war,
5:36
but the combination of new sanctions,
5:38
the US naval blockade,
5:39
and disruption to oil exports
5:41
has driven that pressure even higher.
5:44
So the diplomatic channel supposedly remains open
5:47
with Qatar carrying messages back and forth and
5:49
both sides still possibly working through the terms of
5:53
some form of an agreement,
5:55
but at the same time,
5:56
the US is continuing to increase the economic pressure on Iran
6:00
and of course hasn't taken future military action off the table.
6:04
The key question in all of this remains
6:07
who in Iran is actually calling the shots
6:11
without knowing who has ultimate authority within the regime.
6:14
It is almost impossible
6:16
for the US to determine how this will all end up,
6:19
which,
6:19
after all,
6:20
may be why the regime hasn't been clear
6:22
about who is in fact in charge.
6:26
All right.
6:26
Coming up next,
6:27
US forces believe Iraq after more than two decades,
6:31
and Pakistan warns that it could enter the fight against the Houthis.
6:35
That could be diplomatic speak for,
6:37
but we won't.
6:38
I'll be right back.
6:40
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7:41
Welcome back to the PDB.
7:43
After more than two decades of American military involvement in Iraq,
7:47
the final US troops are now out.
7:50
The Pentagon announced Wednesday that the withdrawal is complete,
7:53
ending the military mission that began with the 2003 invasion,
7:57
resumed in 2014 to fight ISIS,
8:00
and continued in different forms ever since.
8:03
The last American forces departed from Iraq's Kurdish region
8:06
under an agreement reached between Washington and Baghdad
8:09
back in 2024.
8:11
Now this withdrawal timetable predates the current US administration.
8:15
The agreement to end the US military presence
8:17
was negotiated under the Biden administration,
8:21
but geopolitics
8:22
really doesn't care who signed the agreement.
8:24
The withdrawal is happening now in the middle of a war with Iran,
8:27
and of course
8:29
that makes the timing notable
8:31
and concerning.
8:32
Washington is trying to put maximum pressure on Iran
8:34
economically,
8:35
diplomatically,
8:36
and militarily.
8:37
At the same time,
8:38
American troops are leaving a country
8:40
where Iran has spent years building influence
8:43
through allied political factions and armed Shiite militias.
8:47
As you might imagine,
8:48
Iran is treating the withdrawal as a victory.
8:51
Naturally,
8:51
the regime and its allies have portrayed the American departure as
8:54
another success for what Iran calls its axis of resistance.
8:58
Supporters of Iran-backed militias inside Iraq
9:01
have also celebrated the exit,
9:03
some with anti-American rallies and chants.
9:06
I mean,
9:06
frankly,
9:07
is it,
9:07
is it even an anti-American rally if you don't have chants?
9:10
I,
9:10
I,
9:11
one goes with the other.
9:12
The Iraqi government says its own security forces
9:15
are now capable of defending the country.
9:17
And Washington says military cooperation is not disappearing entirely.
9:21
The US plans to continue providing training and intelligence support
9:24
even though the troops have gone.
9:26
Still,
9:27
the obvious concern is what happens to the space that the Americans leave behind.
9:31
Iran-backed militias already hold significant power inside Iraq.
9:35
Both politically and militarily,
9:37
some of those groups have resisted pressure to disarm,
9:40
and the fear is that the disappearance of US forces
9:43
removes one more obstacle to their expanding influence.
9:46
And then,
9:47
of course,
9:48
well,
9:48
there's ISIS.
9:49
The group is nowhere near as powerful as it was a decade ago,
9:52
and Iraqi security forces are in a very different position today
9:56
than they were in 2014.
9:58
But ISIS has not disappeared.
10:01
Sleeper cells and remnants remain active.
10:03
And there are concerns that any weakening of intelligence,
10:06
surveillance,
10:07
or counterterrorism capabilities
10:09
could create room for the organization to rebuild,
10:12
and Iraq has been through
10:13
that before.
10:15
American troops withdrew in 2011.
10:17
3 years later,
10:18
ISIS swept across large parts of Iraq,
10:20
captured Mosul,
10:21
and forced the US back into the country.
10:23
But
10:24
hey,
10:25
what are the chances that history repeats itself?
10:28
Now,
10:28
that does make me sound rather cynical,
10:29
doesn't it?
10:30
To be fair,
10:31
maybe history doesn't repeat itself,
10:33
but it does explain why some Iraqi and
10:35
Kurdish officials remain uneasy about the withdrawal.
10:38
The larger point here is that the withdrawal was planned years ago.
10:42
Obviously at that point
10:43
no one could predict the current Iran conflict.
10:46
The question now
10:47
is whether Washington is leaving behind a stable
10:49
Iraqi state capable of filling that space,
10:52
or whether Iran-backed militias,
10:55
ISIS or both,
10:56
will try to fill it instead.
10:58
As a cynic.
10:59
Well,
11:00
I know where my money is going in the prediction markets.
11:03
All right.
11:04
Turning now to the ongoing fight between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis,
11:07
where the Middle East's newest military alliance is getting its first real test.
11:11
Pakistan's defense minister says his nation is prepared to use
11:15
whatever means are available to defend the kingdom.
11:18
That warning came Tuesday from Islamabad's Khwaja Asif,
11:22
who described the Iran-backed group as aggressors
11:24
and made clear that quote,
11:25
Any enemy of Saudi Arabia is an enemy of Pakistan.
11:28
That should be very clear,
11:29
end quote.
11:31
But how far is Pakistan prepared to go,
11:33
or has it already taken action?
11:35
Reporters put that question to the Defense Minister during a visit to Rome,
11:39
asking whether Pakistani forces
11:41
had participated in recent air strikes against Iranian operators in Yemen.
11:45
Now he declined to answer directly,
11:47
pointing instead to Pakistan's new trilateral mutual defense pact
11:51
with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
11:53
The three countries signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on the 7th of August.
11:58
It's a
11:59
straightforward NATO-style commitment.
12:00
An attack on one member will be treated
12:02
as an attack on all three.
12:04
That is the obligation Assif says Pakistan is prepared to fulfill.
12:08
Quote,
12:09
I'm not going into detail,
12:10
but obviously when I say that we are
12:12
bound by this arrangement to defend Saudi Arabia,
12:15
that means whatever means are available at our disposal,
12:18
they'll be available to Saudi Arabia also,
12:20
end quote.
12:21
So Pakistan is leaving the scope of
12:23
its potential involvement open while being quite explicit
12:26
about its willingness to help.
12:28
To understand why Pakistan is making that commitment,
12:31
yeah,
12:31
look at how the Houthis are expanding the fight.
12:34
As I've discussed in recent weeks,
12:35
the Iran-backed group has intensified missile and drone attacks
12:39
against Saudi Arabia while extending its control along Yemen's Red Sea coast,
12:43
which reminds me.
12:45
I wonder if the US will insist in their negotiations with Iran,
12:48
if those negotiations are ongoing,
12:51
that the regime calls a stop to their proxies'
12:53
actions against the Saudis in the Bab al-Mendeb Strait.
12:56
I mean,
12:56
given Iran's influence over the Houthis,
12:59
you would think
13:00
it would be odd to treat what the Houthis are doing and Iran's actions
13:03
as two completely separate matters.
13:06
Just a thought.
13:07
Houthi forces recently captured the strategic port city of Mocha
13:10
and several Red Sea islands,
13:12
pushing their reach closer to the Bab al Mandeb Strait.
13:15
That's significant
13:16
because roughly 12% of global trade passes through that maritime choke point,
13:21
which makes what happens there a concern well beyond Saudi Arabia.
13:26
So
13:26
you ask,
13:27
what are the Houthis doing with that expanding reach.
13:30
Well,
13:30
along with allied Iranian-backed militias in Iraq,
13:33
they've attacked Saudi oil facilities and sought to prevent Saudi tankers
13:36
from using the Strait.
13:38
That's the aggression that Pakistan is promising to help Saudi Arabia confront.
13:42
Protecting those facilities and keeping trade routes open
13:45
matters to the US and its allies,
13:47
which have a clear interest in preventing Iran-backed groups
13:50
from dictating who can move through critical international waters.
13:54
Just days before Asif spoke,
13:56
the army chiefs of Pakistan,
13:57
Turkey,
13:58
and Saudi Arabia
13:59
met in Riyadh to discuss how to respond to the attacks.
14:02
Their top diplomats also recently met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly,
14:07
where they discussed implementing the defense pact
14:09
and coordinating a response to attacks targeting
14:12
Mecca and other sites in the kingdom.
14:15
All right.
14:16
In today's back of the brief,
14:17
British intelligence says a Beijing research institute is secretly
14:21
operating as a front for China's spy agency.
14:24
What?
14:25
Targeting sensitive technology and expertise
14:27
from Western universities and laboratories.
14:31
Hm,
14:31
or you say laboratory,
14:32
I say laboratory.
14:34
Pajama,
14:34
pajama.
14:35
Yeah.
14:36
Apparently the only people surprised at this news are the
14:38
academics and researchers working in Western universities and laboratories.
14:43
Which reminds me of that brilliant kids' cartoon
14:46
Dexter's Laboratory.
14:47
More on that when we come back.
14:51
Hey,
14:51
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In today's back of the brief,
17:06
British intelligence is exposing what it says was a
17:09
hidden path
17:10
from Western university research
17:12
directly to Beijing's spy agency,
17:14
with a Chinese Institute funding projects
17:17
that were actually funded by the Chinese government to support espionage.
17:21
MI5,
17:22
Britain's domestic intelligence service,
17:23
issued its first ever
17:25
espionage alert on Wednesday.
17:27
MI5 is publicly identifying an alleged Chinese
17:30
intelligence front and explaining how it operated.
17:33
It's part of a broader effort by the British government and its allies
17:37
to bring the scale of Chinese espionage into public view.
17:41
So what exactly has MI5 uncovered?
17:44
Well,
17:44
the warning centers on the Beijing-based
17:46
China General Technology Research Institute.
17:49
Well,
17:50
that sounds suitably vague.
17:52
And then you say,
17:52
does it have an acronym?
17:53
Of course it does.
17:54
It's CGTRI,
17:56
that just rolls off the tongue,
17:57
which also goes by the name
17:58
China Academy of General Technology.
18:01
Again,
18:02
suitably vague.
18:03
According to MI5,
18:04
the institute concealed its relationship with
18:06
China's Ministry of State Security,
18:08
the MSS.
18:09
While financing research intended to acquire sensitive technology and expertise
18:13
from Western universities and laboratories,
18:16
those projects involved artificial intelligence,
18:19
covert communications,
18:20
and other technologies.
18:21
MI5 says the purpose behind that funding
18:24
went well beyond academic cooperation and in fact
18:27
is espionage hidden in the guise or veneer of academia.
18:31
MI5 stated,
18:32
quote,
18:32
The primary purpose is to fund academic research
18:35
that directly improves MSS or Ministry of State Security,
18:39
technical capability for espionage.
18:42
Now how far did that arrangement reach?
18:44
Well,
18:44
that's a good question you ask.
18:45
MI5 says it identified
18:47
more than 100
18:49
UK-linked academics who contributed to projects secretly
18:52
funded by MSS via intermediaries.
18:56
Now of course that doesn't mean that those
18:58
academics knowingly agreed to help China's spies.
19:01
The alert did not identify individual
19:03
researchers or universities and acknowledged that many
19:07
likely
19:08
engaged with CGTRI in good faith
19:11
given the institute's obfuscated links to Chinese intelligence
19:15
and of course also
19:16
given how many academics in the West are
19:18
rather gormless when it comes to the aggressiveness and expansiveness
19:21
of China's spying efforts,
19:23
but Britain has made clear
19:25
what it expects universities to do next.
19:27
Now that MI5 has exposed the alleged connection,
19:30
those research relationships need to end.
19:33
Security Minister Dan Jarvis says the
19:34
alert exposes attempts by Chinese intelligence
19:37
to covertly benefit from the expertise and research of our academics,
19:41
undermining our national security,
19:43
end quote.
19:44
He says he has written to all university vice chancellors
19:47
to ensure they support their staff
19:49
to end all arrangements with this company,
19:51
end quote.
19:52
Those who fail to sever university or research ties
19:55
could also face prosecution,
19:57
the alert warrants.
19:58
Britain's 2023 national security law
20:01
prohibits conduct
20:02
that is likely to materially assist a foreign intelligence service.
20:07
Now former British officials and China experts
20:09
point to the intensifying competition between the West and Beijing
20:12
over artificial intelligence,
20:14
drones,
20:15
and
20:15
other technologies transforming warfare and espionage.
20:19
The concern,
20:19
of course,
20:20
is that expertise developed in Western research institutions
20:23
could help give Chinese intelligence an advantage in that competition,
20:27
with researchers potentially unaware of how their work is being used.
20:32
Britain's closest intelligence partners have been raising related concerns and
20:35
in fact have been raising those concerns for years.
20:38
Recently though,
20:38
in June,
20:39
the Five Eyes partnership,
20:40
which of course includes the US,
20:42
Britain,
20:42
Canada,
20:43
Australia,
20:43
and New Zealand,
20:44
warned that China was using LinkedIn and other job search platforms
20:49
to extract secret information from security professionals.
20:52
That warning
20:53
focused on people who already had access to sensitive information.
20:56
This latest warning
20:58
concerns researchers and academics who may be approached by
21:01
what appears to be a harmless Chinese research institute
21:04
offering cooperative work opportunities.
21:08
And that my friends,
21:08
is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday,
21:11
the 1st of October.
21:12
Welcome to October.
21:13
If you have any questions or comments,
21:14
please reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com.
21:18
And of course if you like an ad-free PDB,
21:20
well,
21:20
no worries,
21:21
just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief
21:24
by visiting PDB.
21:25
Premium.com
21:26
and finally,
21:27
as they say,
21:28
a teaser.
21:29
Oh,
21:29
don't miss this weekend's edition of the PDB Situation Report.
21:33
The amazing Neil deGrasse Tyson
21:35
will be joining me to talk artificial intelligence,
21:38
the weaponization of space,
21:39
aliens,
21:40
and his latest book Take Me to Your Leader.
21:43
Now I just hope he can keep up with my big brain.
21:45
I'm Mike Baker,
21:46
and I'll be back later today with the PDB
21:48
afternoon bulletin.
21:49
Until then,
21:50
stay informed,
21:51
stay safe,
21:52
stay cool.