Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Poland's ex-President Kwasniewski Putin's war in Ukraine was a miscalculation

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Poland's ex-President Kwasniewski Putin's war in Ukraine was a miscalculation · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Mr. Krasniewski, recently there was a massive discussion about the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: possibility of a Russian attack against a NATO country, either
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: one of the Baltic states or probably Poland. How do
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: you assess this scenario? Is it realistic?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's a realistic scenario and it's necessary to treat
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  Speaker 2: such scenario quite seriously. I don't believe that Russia will
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  Speaker 2: try having so many problems in Ukraine. to open new
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  Speaker 2: front and to use some serious military measures against NATO countries.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: But we should be prepared that the hybrid actions will
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  Speaker 2: be continued. We'll have some elements of psychological war and
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  Speaker 2: such attempts. That's what we've seen in Leipzig in Germany.
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  Speaker 2: So this is not Baltic States, not Poland. This is
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  Speaker 2: the biggest European Union country. We can observe such tests
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  Speaker 2: organized by Russians to NATO. I think that Secretary General
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  Speaker 2: of NATO said some days ago that it's not a
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  Speaker 2: serious possibility that Putin will attack militarily NATO. It's correct, but...
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: We ask about scenario. Yes, such scenario exists and we
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  Speaker 2: should be prepared for such scenario as well.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Putin counts on NATO being weak and not united, especially
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  Speaker 1: because of the United States' skepticism with regard to NATO.
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  Speaker 1: That's his calculation. Probably he's on to something, no?
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  Speaker 2: Well, that is not a secret that Mr. Putin doesn't
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  Speaker 2: like NATO, and even more, he hates NATO very much.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: But NATO is still the biggest political and military alliance
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  Speaker 2: in the world. Still Article 5, what means that if
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  Speaker 2: one country will be attacked, others are obliged to support
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  Speaker 2: this country, is in power. And third, even with Mr.
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  Speaker 2: Trump and his.
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  Speaker 2: Doubts about the future of NATO and especially engagement of
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  Speaker 2: United States in NATO is true. We are enough powerful
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  Speaker 2: to organize this European component stronger. And the situation with
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  Speaker 2: NATO for Putin, because of his aggression against Ukraine, changed
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  Speaker 2: very much in negative sense. Because I think Mr. Putin
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  Speaker 2: absolutely didn't expect that because of his aggression against Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: he will have two neighbors from Finland and Sweden as
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  Speaker 2: a full member of NATO. And that sees the change, very,
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  Speaker 2: very substantial change of the situation in this part of
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: the world. So I think we will survive as NATO.
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  Speaker 2: We will survive as an alliance. We will show our
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  Speaker 2: solidarity if we will be attacked or tested by Russia soon.
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  Speaker 2: And I believe very much that this Article 5 is
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  Speaker 2: still the best security guarantee for Baltics, for Poland, and
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  Speaker 2: for all members of the North Atlantic Alliance.
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  Speaker 1: There is an upswing now in the electoral success and
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  Speaker 1: political power of the populist parties, of the right and left,
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  Speaker 1: extreme right and extreme left, especially in Germany and in France.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think it could lead to the weakening of
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  Speaker 1: the alliance? What would be the results of this trend
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  Speaker 1: in European politics?
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  Speaker 2: Well, first, you know, democracy, that is a very tricky thing,
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  Speaker 2: you know, and we have in some places more populistic results,
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  Speaker 2: like Lund in Saxony-Anhalt, in Germany, but you have a
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  Speaker 2: very good anti-populist result in Hungary, for example. Very many
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  Speaker 2: people expect that in New Holland we'll have a populistic,
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  Speaker 2: anti-European government. We have not. So I'm careful with the
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  Speaker 2: results of democratic elections in Germany and in France, but
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  Speaker 2: I want to give you a very paradoxical response.
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  Speaker 1: For your question.
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  Speaker 2: I think as far and as long as Mr. Putin
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  Speaker 2: will have such very, very anti-NATO policy and will continue
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  Speaker 2: his aggression against Ukraine, NATO will be not weaker. NATO
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  Speaker 2: will be much stronger. And support for NATO and support
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  Speaker 2: for this politics, which is against Russia, will increase, will
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  Speaker 2: not decrease. The result of this aggression is absolutely counterproductive
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  Speaker 2: from the point of view of Mr. Putin, my opinion.
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  Speaker 2: And if you see public opinion, Baltic states, very anti-Russian.
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  Speaker 2: If you see position, you know, in Poland, we have
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  Speaker 2: a very polarized society when we speak about everything, you know.
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  Speaker 2: But when we speak about Russia, from the left to
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  Speaker 2: the right, from the right to the left, that is unity.
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  Speaker 2: When we speak about NATO, it's a unity. And I
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  Speaker 2: think step by step, If this war will be continued,
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  Speaker 2: if we have not five years of the war, but
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  Speaker 2: six years, seven years, the position of NATO as the
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  Speaker 2: main guarantee of our security and the main argument for
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  Speaker 2: us against possible aggression from Russia is NATO. And then,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the position of NATO in these very complicated
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  Speaker 2: circumstances will be stronger and not weaker. And that's this
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: miscalculation of Mr.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Putin. OK, in Germany, you could say that alternative for
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  Speaker 1: Germany is still kind of at least far away from
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  Speaker 1: the federal government. But in France, next year, there's a
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  Speaker 1: clear possibility that Marine Le Pen, who was always NATO
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  Speaker 1: skeptic and Russia friendly, will become president. President of the
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  Speaker 1: French Republic. Does NATO have to fear that or be
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  Speaker 1: concerned about it?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, but that is my prediction, very personal prediction. If
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  Speaker 2: Madame Le Pen will be elected, what is possible? She
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  Speaker 2: will be maybe not so, she will be not very
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  Speaker 2: much in favor of NATO, but she will still be
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  Speaker 2: very much anti-Russian and anti-Putin's politics because of many reasons.
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  Speaker 2: Because she knows, and she is a very, very clever politician,
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  Speaker 2: she knows the expectation and the feeling of French voters.
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  Speaker 2: And these French voters today, they are much more pro-Ukraine
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  Speaker 2: and much less pro-Russia. And that is necessary to see.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: And it's also the result of this aggression. The mood
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  Speaker 2: towards Russia changed. The people, the solidarity with Ukraine is
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  Speaker 2: nothing artificial. This is something that is really very, very
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  Speaker 2: serious in this country. So Le Pen probably will be
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  Speaker 2: not the best president for NATO. But she will be
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  Speaker 2: a quite good president to organize such very united response
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  Speaker 2: for Russian aggressive politics.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Thank you very much.