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Safe Withdrawal Rate · Money In Motion with Klaas Financial

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This is Money in Motion with Class Financial, a fun and informative show designed
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to help you get answers to all your retirement questions in one place. And
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our phone lines are open for you right now. If you've got questions for
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our retirement planning professionals from Class Financial, the telephone number here at station six
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O eight three two one thirteen ten. That's six O eight three two one
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thirteen ten. We'll get you on the air this morning. Don't forget.
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You can learn more about Class Financial on their website class financial dot com.
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That's klaas Financial dot com. Great website to learn more about Class Also,
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of course, listen back to this and previous shows podcasts, and sign up
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for the weekly Market Paul's newsletter. It's a once week email that you receive.
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It's got a link to, of course, the most recent podcast as
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well as a little snapshot of what's been going on in the markets. Against
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Subscribe right online at class financial dot com and joining us this week our CJ
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Class and Nate Breeby CJ. How are you doing this morning. I'm doing
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great. Nice to talk to you, Sean. Great to talk with you.
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Nate. Welcome back to the program. It's been a little Yeah,
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Hi Sean, happy to be back. It's great to have both of you.
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And we are always talking about really important and really interesting topics. And
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this week we're gonna be talking about withdrawal rate, which I think for a
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lot of folks is one of those big, big questions and a lot of
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times a big, big fear. And we're going to talk about some of
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the some of the things to keep in mind, of course, with longevity
1:21
and other questions. Speaking of questions, of course, this week, like
1:23
every week, we'll be doing a class quiz question. Leak your chance to
1:26
win a fantastic prize this week at twenty five dollars gift card to Starbucks from
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our friends at Class Financial. Little tip and we'll tell you a little bit
1:34
later also how to win it. But a little tip is if you listen
1:37
closer to the program. Oftentimes it's just about every time the question and answer
1:41
come up during the show, gives you a little leg up on everybody.
1:42
Also, pay close attention to the program. We'll be doing that Class Quiz
1:46
question of the week a little bit later on in the show, and before
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we get talking about the withdrawal rate and the safe withdrawal rate. Let's take
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a look back at last week's class Quiz Question the Week and get the question
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and answer there as well. Nate, Yeah, thanks, Actually I'm gonna
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I'll go over this quickly, no worries. Hey, Well, first off,
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I think we introduced this concept of the claus Quiz Question of the Week
2:08
about five years ago. Now, Sean and listen. The whole intent of
2:13
this is to get people kind of listening, paying attention and hopefully retaining some
2:16
of this information, and for us just to have a little bit of fun
2:20
and do a little giveaway. So thank you to everybody who participates and calls
2:27
in for these claus Quiz Questions of the Week each week. So our winner
2:30
list last week was actually Richard from de Forest, and he accurately answered the
2:36
question from last week, which was which pension choice will provide my spouse with
2:40
the same monthly benefit if I should pass away? Is it one hundred percent
2:46
joint and survivor or single life pension? And Richard accurately answered it is the
2:51
one hundred percent joint and survivor. So make sure you listen to this week's
2:54
question, which will come up at the end of the show. And then
2:57
call in to win that prize. Man tastic. So as we talk about
3:01
this week in the conversation about proper withdrawal rates, it's an important conversation.
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I know we get a lot of questions on this also a lot of times
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social scity questions as well. Anything has opened this morning, love to get
3:12
you on the air with CJ and eight the telephone number six O eight three
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two one thirteen ten. That's three two one thirteen ten. You can find
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Class Financial online Class Financial dot com and their telephone number six O eight four
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four two five six three seven. No charge for that initial gets no appointment
3:27
at Class Financially. It is complementary to you. Again their number at the
3:30
office six O eight to four four two five six three seven. And the
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number to get on the air this morning six O eight three two one thirteen
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ten. That's six O eight three two one thirteen ten. This week again
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and we are going to be talking about the proper which retirement withdrawal rate in
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retirement And I've got to guess Nate that it's important since folks are living longer,
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aren't we, Yeah, yes, determining how much you can withdraw it
3:53
from your portfolio is absolutely critical as your enter retirement, especially as life expectancy
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continues to increase. The number one fear retirees have is running out of money.
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So, now, this is an incredibly complex and difficult question to answer
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because there are so many factors that are unique to your own situation. But
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rest assured there is an answer answer for you. So there are four key
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factors to consider when determining your initial withdrawal rate. The first is your age,
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so what age will you retire and pull funds out of your account?
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So someone who retires at age sixty five could withdraw more than someone who retires
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at fifty because their life expectancy is shorter. The second is absolutely key as
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well, having spending flexibility, so being able to adjust your distributions if your
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portfolio declined significantly so think twenty percent or more is absolutely critical. So research
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has actually shown that this alone can increase your withdrawal rate by as much as
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thirty to forty percent. And third, being mindful of sequence of return risk.
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So it's all well and good if your portfolio averages five to six percent
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over your retirement, but when you receive positive or negative returns matter a lot
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research is shown and once again that the returns you receive in the first five
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years of retirement matter more than the next thirty years of returns combined. So
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let that sink in really very interesting. And fourth, if you're assuming inflation
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adjusted spending or nominal spending, so if you are adjusting your withdrawals for inflation
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each year, that would substantially reduce the initial recommended withdrawal in favor of larger
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payments in the future. So knowing all these factors, the question becomes,
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well, what is considered a safe withdrawal rate? Right? If I want
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to be absolutely sure? The idea here is to balance taking out enough money
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to lift comfortably, but not depleting your retirement savings prematurely. So the widely
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publicized safe withdrawal rate for thirty year retirement with inflation adjustments is four percent of
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your initial balance. This rate came from examining historical sequences of inflation and market
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returns, and this ended up being the nineteen sixty eight retiree for those who
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care to know. However, this rate could be too conservative and leaves spending
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on the table. The same research has also shown that in ninety six percent
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of these sequences, the retiree would actually have one hundred percent of their starting
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balance remaining that death if they followed the rule. So this speaks to how
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important it is to having spending flexibility in your plan. So just being prepared
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to make small adjustments honestly, only ten percent or less of adjustments. Otherwise
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you have to use a rate that is so conservative to account for the historical
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worst case sequence, what's coincidentally enough, only has a four percent chance of
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occurring. So for context, the average safe for the trial rate over this
6:42
period was closer to seven percent. Talking this morning with c J. Class
6:46
and Nate Brebe of course of Class Financial online Class Financial dot com. That's
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Class klaas Financial dot com. You can learn more about them all online their
6:57
telephone numbers six to eight four four two five three seven. No charge for
7:00
the initial gets to know you appointment techquas Financial. It is complimentary to you.
7:03
And if you've got a question for Nate and CJ love to get you
7:06
on the air this morning six O eight three two one thirteen ten. That's
7:10
six O eight three two one thirteen ten. So is there is there a
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like what would we do for like a reasonable withdrawal rate so we don't run
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out of money. Yeah, So, as Nate was talking about there,
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there's been some research done to show, you know, that range of about
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a four percent withdrawal rate assuming inflation adjustments over a thirty year retirement. YadA,
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YadA, YadA. But as Nate kind of already is hinting at it,
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what your withdrawal rate should be or what you should assume the withdrawal rate
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to be really depends upon a lot of different factors. So as a matter
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of fact, we love We've talked about this on the show. We love
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rules of thumb and we hate rules of them because people will often come in
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and say, I listen to your show and like, I'm I'm gonna do
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four percent, and then it turns out they're retiring at like forty that's not
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going to work. And then they go, oh, I I'm, you
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know, abiding by your rule of thumb and I'm going to take out four
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percents and I'm ninety years old, and we go, oh, that's terrible.
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So on story short, there's a lot of things that can change this
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withdrawal rate. Let me let me give you some examples of why these rules
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of thumb are dangerous. Let's say you retire at sixty, but five years
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into retirement, your mortgage is going to mortgage is going to be paid off,
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and so to live comfortably you need to take seven percent out for five
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years. But then once your mortgage is paid off, it's going to go
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down to three percent. A lot of people will not retire because of that
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initial withdrawal rate being too high. They go, I don't have enough money,
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whereas Nate and I can run actually financial planning scenarios over an entire retirement
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and say no, that's seven percent, eight percent, even nine percent.
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Early distribution may not cause you to run out of money as long as it
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doesn't persist for a thirty year timeframe. A second factor would be if you
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retire at sixty verses sixty five, you may have a more expensive health insurance
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plan. Right. A lot of people know this. If you don't get
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to Medicare eligibility, you're going to be taking COBRA often which is an extension
9:18
of your workplace health insurance, or you're going to get on the Affordable Care
9:20
Act. Well, these can be quite expensive premiums, but again that's not
9:24
a lifetime expensive premium. Once you get onto Medicare, your premiums come down.
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So the point we're making here is be ever so cautious with these rules
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of thumb. They're only as good as the people who understand how to apply
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them. And if that's you, God bless you. I'm so happy for
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you. But if it's not, you may want to pause, sit down
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with a financial planner who can actually run these scenarios for you different what if
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ways you want to live in retirement, traveling in retirement, just to give
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you a really good sense of all the different variables. So Nate already mentioned
9:56
this, but you do want to be really ca osious with these different factors
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like age, time horizon, how much you have in stocks versus bonds,
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how much other kind of guaranteed income sources you have, and one other,
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just quick little factor. A lot of times people will go, well,
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I'm just only going to take what I earn, and I go good luck.
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If you're only going to take what you earn and you get ten percent
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in a year and you pull all that out, what if you go down
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the next year, are you going to reimburse your account? Right? It
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doesn't work. So you've got to come up with some sort of systematic withdrawal
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rate, unless, of course, you're just going to buy all annuities or
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CDs, which some people do, but that can be tricky as well because
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of a lack of flexibility. So listen, I didn't make up the rules.
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I actually wish retirement planning was easier. But here in the United States
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we have the joy of freedom and flexibility, but it comes with a huge
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amount of responsibility that falls on the individual, and unfortunately, these are things
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you only get to do once, so you want to make sure you're doing
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it the right way. Talking this morning with our retirement planning professionals C.
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J. Class and Nate Breebe, of course they come to us from Class
11:07
Financial online, Class Financial dot com. That's Class klaas Financial dot com and
11:13
their telephone number six O eight four four two five six three seven. It's
11:18
no charge for the initial get to know you appointment at Class Financial. It
11:20
is complementary to you. Speaking of phone numbers, if we want to get
11:24
on the air this morning, we'd love to hear from you. The telephone
11:26
number here at the station six O eight three two one thirteen ten at six
11:30
eight three two one thirteen ten, we'll get you on the air with neat
11:33
Nate and CJ. Of course we love getting those questions and love answering them
11:39
right here on the show. We'll take your call. Next we'll also talk
11:41
a little bit more about cash flow as we plan for retirement versus preretirement,
11:46
with the details on that next as Money in Motion with Class Financial continues right
11:50
here on thirteen ten WIBA. This is Money in Motion with Class Financial,
12:00
a fun and informative show designed to help you get answers to all your retirement
12:03
questions in one place. Stalking this morning with CJ, Class and Nate Brivr,
12:07
retirement planning professionals from Class Financial. If you've got a question for CJ
12:11
or Nate, love to get you on the air this morning. Six O
12:13
eight three two one thirteen ten. That's six O eight three two one thirteen
12:18
ten, gets you right on the program. Don't forget you learn more about
12:20
Class Financial on their website Class financial dot com. That's Class klaas financial dot
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com. Great website, and of course they're telephone number six O eight four
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four two five six three seven. No charge for that initial get to no
12:35
appointment at Class Financial. It will be complimentary to you. Again, they're
12:37
telephone number six O eight four four two five six three seven and to get
12:41
on the air this morning six O eight three two one thirteen ten. That's
12:45
six O eight three two one thirteen ten. Talking about figuring out the proper
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retirement withdrawal rate when it comes to planning for retirements. So I've got to
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guess how much cash flow or income we should plan for retirement versus pre retirement
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is pretty important conversation, isn't at CJ it is. Yeah, So again
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this can be tricky. We'll give you some rules of thumb, but everybody
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remembers what I said in the prior segment. We both love and hate rules
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of thumb because they can be missapplied very easily. But a rule of thumb
13:16
is that it's likely you will need about seventy percent to one hundred percent of
13:18
your pre retirement income when you retire, because most people don't want to reduce
13:24
their lifestyle and retirement. However, goodness gracious, I know Nate is sitting
13:28
there going yeah, but that's right. There's a lot of butts to this,
13:31
because in reality, what if you pay off your mortgage right before you
13:35
retire, or what if you're putting twenty five thousand dollars into your four one
13:39
K plan before you retire, what if you have an expensive health insurance premium
13:46
through through you know, your employment income, or finally, like you have
13:52
a FICA tax which is Socialecurity and Medicare that actually comes out of your earnings
13:56
that does not typically come out of any source of income in retirement. So
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you got to be cautious with these numbers. That's the reason why we give
14:03
this kind of range. But here's the idea. Typically speaking, people don't
14:07
want to experience a reduction of their lifestyle and retirement. We hear this over
14:11
and over again, which is, hey, how do you want to live
14:13
in retirement And they go, I don't know, And we go, well,
14:16
do you want to live a similar lifestyle? And they would definitely Basically,
14:20
I want to live a similar lifestyle and maybe have a little bit of
14:22
a budget for travel to see the kids and grandkids. So that's a common
14:26
response. But therefore we need to actually drill down to what you are spending,
14:31
not what your gross income is. Those are two very different things.
14:37
So again we would caution people doing the we call it the poor man's financial
14:41
planning. It's the I make one hundred grand a year. CJ's rules rule
14:46
of thumb with seventy would do one hundred percent, So I need to make
14:48
sure I have one hundred thousand of income in retirement, and often that is
14:52
way off from reality. Often you might only need sixty thousand or seventy thousand
14:58
because of those different says I was mentioning. So also keep in mind that
15:03
average length of retirement according to according to Forbes, is eighteen years, so
15:09
you kind of want to be aware of Hey, if I retire at sixty
15:11
five or sixty two, you know what is my expected length of retirement?
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According to Forbes, the averages eighteen and men on average retire at sixty five,
15:20
whereas women are a little bit earlier at sixty two. So you want
15:24
to be aware of the length of that retirement can also have a big impact
15:26
on how much you will need to support yourself. Talking this morning with c
15:31
J, Class and Nate berbe breebe excuse me of Class Financial online, Class
15:35
Financial dot com. That's Class klaas Financial dot com and their telephone number six
15:39
So eight four four two five six three seven no charge for the NINII get
15:43
to know you appointment at class. Financially it will be complimentary to you.
15:46
Again the number six O eight four four two five six three seven. So
15:50
Nate, how much cash flow or income should we plan then for retirement versus
15:54
our pre retirement income. Well, yeah, we're talking about RMD's next ship
16:00
next year, so that's all right. So when we get to age seventy
16:06
three or seventy five, actually we'll talk about that in a second, But
16:08
basically, there does come a point in time where there are minimums that do
16:12
have to come out of your pre tax retirement account unless you are still working.
16:17
There are a few exceptions. So why does the IRIS require you to
16:21
take some money out? Well, for pretax retirement accounts, your contributions and
16:26
your earnings have been growing tax deferred for several several years, so the IRS
16:30
is not just going to let you defer taxes indefinitely, and they are going
16:33
to require you to take out a certain amount each year and be taxed.
16:37
So special note there's no required minimum distributions on ROTH accounts unless you inherit the
16:44
account. So, like I said, this age does kind of depend on
16:48
when you were born. So this just changed at the end of last year.
16:51
Actually, so for those born between nineteen fifty one and nineteen fifty nine,
16:56
your RMD age is seventy three, which yes, used to be age
16:59
seventeen and a half, and then two years ago maybe it was increased to
17:03
seventy two, so now it's seventy three. Further complexity arises with those born
17:07
in nineteen sixty or later, your RMD age is seventy five. So how
17:14
this works is basically, your first RMD must be distributed no later than April
17:18
first of the year following the year you turn either seventy three or seventy five,
17:22
depending on your situation, and then every year there forward they're after it
17:27
must be distributed by the end of each calendar year. So talking about the
17:33
size of your RMD, that's going to be determined by the year end balance
17:37
of your retirement account from the preceding year. This value is then divided by
17:41
a life expectancy factor listed on the uniform Life table published by the IRS,
17:47
and for most individuals this or amount to roughly three point seven eight percent of
17:52
their previous year's closing balance. Now you may say, well, what if
17:56
I don't need the money well, so if you don't need this distribution and
17:59
your chably minded, a qualified charitable distribution is an excellent option. A QCD
18:04
is a tax advantaged way to donate that results in a powerful above the line
18:10
deduction. Qcds can actually begin at age seventy and a half, so definitely
18:14
be aware of that. And they don't require you to itemize your deduction,
18:17
so this is huge those that have just done their taxes and probably didn't itemize
18:21
and got frustrated. This is absolutely applies to pretty much everyone over the age
18:26
of seventy and a half. Finally, the amount you can do up to
18:30
one hundred thousand dollars per year per individual, and this is key directly to
18:36
the charity. So you have to work with your current IRA custodian and it
18:41
just is iras it's not four own ks, and have them send the check
18:44
directly to the charity and that's how you get to have the deduction and not
18:48
pay taxes on the distribution. Really nice tool to make use of there for
18:52
sure, if it's something that they are able to do and would like to
18:56
do, really really good stuff. Talking this week with CJ. Closson Ade
18:59
Breeby of course Loss Financial Online, Class Financial dot Com that's Klaas Financial dot
19:04
com. Great website to learn more about Class Financial. Also sign up for
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the weekly Market Pulse newsletter all online and listen back podcasts. Their telephone number
19:11
six to eight four four two five six three seven. No charge for financial.
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Get to know your appointment at Coloss Financially. It will be complimentary to
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you again. They're number six to eight four four two five six three seven.
19:22
We'll take it down the homestretch. We'll talk liquidity, we'll talk emergency
19:26
savings as well. We will do that next as Money in Motion with Class
19:30
Financial continues right here on thirteen ten WIBA. This is Money in Motion with
19:37
Class Financial, a fun and informative show designed to help you get answers to
19:42
all your retirement questions in one place. Talking with our Retirement planet professionals Nick,
19:47
Nate Bribe and CJ Class this morning. Of course, they come to
19:51
us from Class Financial Online, Class Financial dot Com. That's Klaas Financial dot
19:56
com. Check them out online, NAG and lispec the podcast. You can
20:00
learn more about Class Financial their separate divisions. I can also sign up for
20:03
the weekly Market Pulse newsletter that all at class financial dot Com. Their telephone
20:07
number six o eight four four two five six three seven. No charge for
20:11
that first deployment at Class Financial, it will be complimentary to you again their
20:15
number six eight four four two five six three seven. Want to hold on
20:18
to that telephone number as well. Coming up in just a couple of minutes,
20:21
we will do the class quiz question leak chance to win a twenty five
20:22
dollars gift card to Starbucks. Before we get to that, we are still
20:26
in the thick of it. Some really important conversation we are having this morning
20:30
about proper withdrawal rate and how do you figure that out? And I've got
20:34
a guess you want to make that Retirees want to make sure they have liquidity
20:40
as well as emergency savings in their accounts as well. Correct absolutely, and
20:45
this goes back to sequence of return risk. So the last thing you want
20:48
to do is to have to sell shares when your account is declining. So
20:52
that's why it's important to have a buffer and your account of cash and short
20:56
term bonds to meet your spending needs. And the exact size of this belfer
21:00
will depend on your distribution rate and may actually be larger in the first few
21:04
years of retirement when sequence risk is at its peak and so you wait.
21:10
You also want to make sure you have an emergency fund outside of your retirement
21:14
account, especially if you're under fifty nine and a half. Many distributions under
21:18
this age would be classified as non qualified distributions and can result in a ten
21:22
percent penalty. So retirement accounts are great for that saving for retirement, but
21:26
down payments on homes, car loans, helping the kids with college, you
21:30
know, maybe better use saved for in simpler vehicles, such as just a
21:34
traditional savings account at your bank outside of liquidity within your retirement account. Also
21:41
having that emergency fund for short term living expenses, and we always hear the
21:48
length of time here, three to six months of expenses in there. And
21:51
if that's too difficult or you don't want to go through the process of determining
21:55
your expenses, just consider using your net income per month. So if you
22:00
clear five thousand dollars a month, well you should be having anywhere from fifteen
22:03
to thirty thousand in your savings, right. That's better better than just coming
22:07
up with a number. That's a good way to kind of narrow it down
22:11
for you and you may have to reduce your savings in your retirement account to
22:15
create that liquidity outside of the retirement account, especially if you are young and
22:21
just starting to save for retirement. You've got to be careful putting too much
22:25
of your funds in a retirement account that you can't touch for twenty or thirty
22:26
years without penalty. And finally, I'm gonna use a bad word here,
22:30
Sean, but you may have to edit it out. But you may have
22:33
to use a create a budget and systematically set up savings plans into a savings
22:40
account. Otherwise we're all guilty of humans. And if we have five hundred
22:44
dollars extra, we're going to spend it. Well, we want to make
22:47
sure when that paycheck comes in we automatically transfer over some to savings to plan
22:51
for some other short term needs. That very important. Yeah, that budget
22:55
word, and always like to hear it, but it has so very scared
22:59
me there for a moment, I'm like, edited out, what are you
23:00
about to say? See autumn over there with their finger on the button just
23:06
in case, and I real quick before we get the clause quiz question the
23:07
week, CJ. Well, I know one of the things you've talked about
23:10
in the past two is you know that we always treat emergency situations like they
23:15
were unexpected. Emergencies are part of life, aren't they They are. Yeah,
23:18
it's it's always something we chuckle about. Especially young people will often say,
23:22
Gosh, I would have done better this year and had more money and
23:26
savings or more in my four oh one k if it wasn't for my needing
23:30
to replace my brakes, and I go, huh. Those things typically need
23:34
to be replaced on a pretty consistent schradual. So how we define emergencies in
23:41
our brains also tends to kind of change over time. So, yes,
23:44
Sean, you are correct. Emergencies are not an if, they're a when,
23:48
And so ultimately, these reserves that we talk about are not optional.
23:51
You have to have these reserves in place, otherwise you will end up with
23:56
credit card debt and that's a whole different problem, and we've done shows on
23:59
that as so I'm speaking of all the great information. Of course, a
24:03
fantastic show this week. There's a lot of great shows up for you online
24:07
right now. If you head on over to class financial dot com, you'll
24:08
see the little green bar that says money in Motion. Podcast click here to
24:12
listen. Do just that. You can listen back to this in previous shows
24:15
as well. You know, of course, on the mornings you tend to
24:18
step out, maybe you're dropping the kiddos, a grandkids off at school,
24:22
running out to grab some coffee and miss part of the program. You can
24:25
always listen back or get caught up at class Financial dot com that's klaas Financial
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dot com. While you're there, you can learn more about Class Financial.
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Also sign up for the weekly Market Pulse newsletter and their telephone number six O
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eight four four two five six three seven. That's six O eight four four
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two five six three seven. No charge for the initial gets no intact Class
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Financially. It is complimentary to you speaking of their number. Time now for
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the Class quiz question Leak. I want to hold on to that telephone number,
24:51
because in just a moment I'll ask you the clause class quiz question the
24:53
week. You will then have thirty minutes from the in today's program to call
24:56
the Class Financial office right here in Madison at six O eight four two five
25:00
six three seven. If you are the first call correct answer, win this
25:03
week's prize, which is a twenty five dollars gift card two Starbucks. This
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week's class quiz question week, is this true or false? When you begin
25:12
to take money from your retirement accounts, you will likely pay income tax on
25:18
the amount distributed? Distributed? Who the cell phone number six to eight four
25:22
four two five six three seven. First call with correct answer, We'll win
25:26
a twenty five dollars gift card to Starbucks. Start using that distributed I'm saying
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like the wrong emphastist, the em fastist was put on the wrong syllable exactly.
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See this. This CJ is why why you guys don't have me working
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at Class Financial because slip ups like right, wait what yeah, So it's
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a goat great chance to win a twenty five dollars gift card to Starbucks.
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Again the question this week two or false? When you begin to take money
25:52
from your tirement account, you will likely pay income tax on amount distributed.
25:57
Telbe number six O eight four four to five six three seven. That's Class
26:02
Financials office right here in medicine. Guys, we always have way too much
26:04
fun. You enjoy this day and we'll talk real soon. Thanks Sean,
26:08
and again the website, take care of me again. The website Class financial
26:12
dot Com. The tell phone number six O eight four four two five six
26:15
three seven News is next right here at thirteen ten WIBA. This is Money
26:23
in Motion with Class Financial Asset Advisors LLC, a registered investment advisor registered with
26:30
the SEC. The content of this show is for informational purposes only and should
26:36
not be considered individual investment advice. Class Financial does not offer tax or legal
26:41
advice. Any opinion offered during the course of this show is the opinion of
26:45
that particular investment advisor representative, and not necessarily the opinion of Class Financial