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NBA Team Building Is About To Change… · Kenny For Real

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Team building is about to shift like crazy, and I
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody is really prepared for it. Now. I
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: know you're like any of the playing starts tom arow
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the playoffs right after that, Why the hell do you
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: think about team building but win playoff mode and trust
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: once the playoffs start. My goal to get y'all a
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: bunch of recaps through the entirety of the playoffs. But
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: it being no games tonight, and it being the eighty
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: two game season being over, and my favorite team being
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: a team that's going to go into this offseason with
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: team belding the mine, I can't help but to think
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: about how much it might shift. I saw report this
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: morning or a graphic that said this season, the twenty
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: twenty five twenty twenty six season had the most sixty
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: lost teams in a single year with five. The Kings,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the Jazz, the Nets, the Pacers, and the Wizards all
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: lost sixty or more games this year. One of the
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: biggest conversations for the entirety of the year has to
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: do with tanking. It might be number one thing on
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Adam Sills priority list, even if it probably shouldn't be.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Trying to fix tanking. We've talked a lot about the
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: potential solutions, and I don't have no ear to the ground.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I have no sources here, but through listening to a
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: bunch of people that do have sources, through podcasts and writing,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: it seems like of all of the things that have
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: been proposed to the NBA or the NBA is proposing
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: to others, the flattening of the odds seems to be
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the number one thing that might get incorporated. And not
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: only will it not be incorporated, potentially it's gonna get incorporated.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Like this, there's rumors that the NBA draft lottery might
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: shift starting next offseason. That is some pretty unpresidents to stuff.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: You gotta think about the way the NBA tries to
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: incorporate new things and incorporate new rules and stuff. When
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: they decide to do the Second Apron, they gave teams
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: multiple seasons to say, hey, in two years, at least
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: two years, three years down the line, we're gonna incorporate
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: this team called the Second Apron, and you bet prepare
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: your teams now, because once we do that, there's no
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: turning back. There are teams that have built their future
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: based on the current lottery structure, the starting next season
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: will be demolished. Think about how crazy that is. And
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: it might feel simple to you, right because Kenny, you
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: talk about next year or two years down the line. No,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: these gms are thinking two to three years down the line,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and they had an idea that this is a way
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna be able to build our team, and Silver
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: and Company might come in and say, no, no, no, we're
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: shifting that. So Ben time Meyer, my apologies for I
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: mispronouncing your name. There. He put together this model right
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: with the idea of one of the things that Adam
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Silver and Company may incorporate next season is flattening the
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: odds for the eighteen teams. We're talking about the teams
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: that missed the playoffs completely and the playing teams. Eighteen
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: teams have the exact same chance of getting the first
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: overall pick right now. You know, the top couple teams
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: have a fourteen percent cence. Hell, a few years before that,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the top team had a one and four chance to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: win win the lottery. They're thinking about flattening it completely
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: across eighteen teams with the idea of getting rid of tanking. Now,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Ben put together this model to kind of showcase how
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: ridiculous it will look if they flattened it to hear
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  Speaker 1: all thirty teams. And this is based on the twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty five, twenty six, so you can see. These are
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: what the odds look like right now. I'm gonna spend
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the draft lottery one time under these new assumptions. And
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: a team like the Indiana Pacers who went out of
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  Speaker 1: their way to lose a bunch of games. Instead of
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  Speaker 1: them having the second pick, which is what they're projected
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: to have in real life, under the new structure, they
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: have the eleventh of them. Sorry, they dropped eleven percent,
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  Speaker 1: they have the thirteenth pick. Now the Washington where's oooh?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: They came out here as winners, right the Wizzard, who
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: won seventeen games on the season, dropped all the way
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: to eleven. And the protection that they have on their
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: pick is gone. And now that goes to the Grizzlies.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So two years ago there were teams that were trading
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  Speaker 1: away their own first round pick. We're gonna top four protected,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna top eight protected because we think next year
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: we're still gonna be bad enough to be a bottom
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  Speaker 1: eighteen and the NBA might just pull the rug underneath them.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So the picks that you traded that you thought were
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: safe are no longer safe. And if I bet those gms,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: if they knew that they were gonna have a flat odds,
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  Speaker 1: they wouldn't have traded that pick. So it is shifting
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: like that. Potentially Again, none of this is confirmed, but
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: potentially shifting like that. Also, see that Joe du Mar's
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: dumbass trade that he did is gonna net the Atlanta
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Hawk's number one pick under this struccher. So that's something.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: But we've seen some pretty egregious potential things. Now I
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: do want to say, oh, the Grizzies, just the Desert
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: By trade works and they get the top three pick
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: in this one. Now, I do want to say, this model,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: this model and theory will nullify tanking. Right if we
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: are a team like, let's run this one more time.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, what a perfect example. I just pull
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: it up. Oh my goodness. If we are team a
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: team like the Sacramento Kings who folded the cards pretty
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: early into the season, we under this new structure, I mean,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: we don't have an incentive to do that because we
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: could still be the third worst team in the league
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  Speaker 1: and end up with pick seventeen. They dropped twelve, y'all,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: they dropped twelve spots, right, So it does de incentivize
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  Speaker 1: tanking for sure, But I also think there are some
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: unseen consequences of all of this. So going back to
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: what made me initially think about this is my favorite
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: team has matter of fact, I could just show you
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this is their payroll. My favorite team. Anthony Simon's off
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the books, Colin Sexton, Zach Collins, Gershan Yabuselee, and the
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: people that we do have under contract. Godly Patrick Grave's
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: concert is crazy. It's really just Josh Giddy when it
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: comes to big money a kor Ros making. So we
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: have sixty upwards of sixty million dollars potentially in cap
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: assuming that we don't resign any of these guys that
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: are up for free agency, right and we have at
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: least one first round pick the season, with the opportunity
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: of getting a second one if the Trailblazers actually make
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the playoffs with their game against the Suns or the
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: second game against the winner of the Clippers versus Warriors,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So we could potentially have two first round picks in
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: this year's draft. And right now, we have no general manager,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: no basketball ops guy, and I'm thinking about if I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: was in that seat, which I don't want that seat,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: but if I were to be in that seat, you
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: kind of have to think about this sixty million dollar
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: cap space and potential other moves with the idea that
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: next year there is no such thing as tanking, if
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: you will, because there really is no incentive to lose
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: six games. So how do you build your team? Are
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: you building your team just to be competent enough to
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: not be the worst team in the league, but maybe
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you still just want that eight percent chance to win
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the lottery. Are you building your team to say, hey,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: it's because everybody else got flatknogs, We're going balls to
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the wall. Those picks don't even matter as much to me.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Or are you in the exact opposite where picks become
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: more valuable because if you're a playing team, you have
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  Speaker 1: an eight percent chance to win the lottery. So when
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: we see more big trades for first round picks, when
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: we see less big trades the first round picks, and
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I think that's what will make a really good general
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: manager who might step into the bulls, What will make
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  Speaker 1: him I don't know. The most beloved person in Chicago,
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  Speaker 1: if he figures out whatever the hell the formula might
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  Speaker 1: be under this potential new structure. Because even if this
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  Speaker 1: is not the structure, the NBA has said that they're
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: doing something, and all of those things potentially change the
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: way you look at team building. And I can't help
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: but to think about all of the teams that have
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: acquired a ton of draft capital. Right, I'm looking at
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: an article by Bobby Marx and Jeremy Wu on ESPN,
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  Speaker 1: But this article is a year old, or some of
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: these picks or some of these numbers might be skewed
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit because we've seen a lot of trade
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: since then. Oh scratch that. I got an up to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: date one from Christopher Klein, a fans sided were he
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: tallied the teams with the most first round picks over
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: the next ten years. The Brooklyn Nets have sixteen of them,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: same thing with the Okac Thunder. The Grizzlies have fourteen,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: and list goes on and on and on. Right, think
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: about how these picks were acquired, right, I wonder if
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know, if Danny Ainge knew that the odds
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: are about to get flatten, where everybody that misses the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: playoffs or make the playoffs and through via playing does
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: he give up all the picks that he gave up
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: to go get Jared? I understand some of the picks
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  Speaker 1: are not their own, but does he still give up
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: those same amount of picks? Right? Do the Magic give
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: up for first round picks for Desmbane if they knew
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: that this season, which was objectively a failure because they
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: had great expectations from everybody, be included where this season,
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  Speaker 1: again under this new structure, could have potentially met the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Grizzlies the first overall pick because even if we make
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the playoffs this year as the eight seed, they have
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: an eight percent chance of moving up. And again, I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: understand why Silver and Company are so hell bent on
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: this topic because they just signed a media rights deal,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: which is a win at the end of the day, Right,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: that's not going anywhere anytime soon. But the first year
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: in your media rights deal, you have it so that
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a ton of teams are taking It's just not a
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: very good look where you can turn on ESPN, Petcock
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: or Amazon and Team C two teams going to get
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: each other that you might have been excited about, and
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: one of those teams are tanking, right, and it's just
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  Speaker 1: not a good product at the end of the day.
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  Speaker 1: I also think that one of the unintended consequences of
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: this of this is that I mean, at the end
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of the day, a lot of team building does boil
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: down to luck. Right. The Spurs got lucky when they
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: won the lottery, and the Victor Women Yama year, they
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: got lucky when they got the second overall pick in
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  Speaker 1: the Dylan Harper. They got lucky when they got Safuncastle
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: they tank to get. But you have to get lucky
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: when it comes to odds. You have to get lovey
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: that the year that you decide that you want to
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: be in the lottery, that it is a good draft.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: There's a level of luck, which I mean you have
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: to make the right picks, but you also have to
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: get lucky. This new structure obviously does incentivize a bunch
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: of luck, but it also gets to the point where
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: let's try to pick a team. Let's try to pick
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a team here. Let's say we are Let's just use
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Bulls cause they've been an example for the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: entire video. We are the Chicago Bulls right under this
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: year's draft structure. My goodness, had the we had the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: ninth pick in our mind and fell all the way
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: to fifteen. Trash. Okay, no big deal, we got unlucky.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Let's run it again next season. We are not good either.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Oh man, this year we ended up with the fourteenth
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: overall pick. That's not good. So we're gonna draft in
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the teams multiple years. Okay, the next one, oh okay.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Then we did get some luck here, but it is
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: so much luck based that you will have teams that
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: will draft thirteen to sixteen for four straight seasons and
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: there's nothing they can really do about it. There's nothing
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: they can do about it. Some teams don't have the
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: incentive or don't have the way to go in to
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: go get the free agency. They have to play through
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the draft. They have to build that way, and you're
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: just making them more tough for them. Playing through the middle,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: and I'm not even through the middle. Playing towards the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: lower middle has not worked out for any team off
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the top of my mind. It just hasn't. Being the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: eleven seed at every single season has not worked out
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: for anybody. Again, Chicago is are a perfect example. You know,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: eight through a tenC to eleven sey It just does
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: not work. You need in most cases a star player
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to get out of the gutter, and drafting a star
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: at thirteen is objectively more harder than drafting a star
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: player at one, two or three. I've said it, I
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: have been a pro tanking guy. Yes, it can get egregious,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: especially towards the end of the season, where the Utah
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Jazz play a game. You tune in on game seventy
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: four and you're like, who the hell is that? Like,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I understand that, I understand that, but some of these
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: teams really do not have much of a choice, And
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I wish I knew what the solution is. Right if
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: you are a GM going into this next era of
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: team building, if I need a solution, I'll put my
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: name in that half of that bulls job. But I
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: have no idea how it will go right. Somebody is
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: going to figure it out, and the guy that does
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: figure it out will be running the NBA. Somebody's gonna
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: really figure it out. But also the thing is like, okay, again,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: we had the most amount of sixty loss teams, like
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: we mentioned, most most amount in the history of this sport,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: which is just not good at the end of the day.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: But there will always be bad teams. There's no way
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: to get rid of bad teams. This is no way.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: It's not it's not like because we flatten the odds
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: and teams are not incentivized a tank anymore, that we
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: won't still have sixty lost teams, that we won't still
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: have teams with fifty plus losses on the season, because
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: there's there's talent in the NBA. But also the good
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: teams are really really really good. Right So now, if
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: you're a fan of a team that's not trying to
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: tank on purpose but just put together a roster that
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: does not work, if you're a fan of that team,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: what is the light at the end of the tunnel
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: for you? The eight percent chance of winning the lottery
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: when we just ran it and you can go from
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: number one to number fifteen. The one thing that the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: fans have. If you're a Wizards fan, if you're a Pacer,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Pacer just went to the finals last year. But if
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: you're a Nets fan, you're a Jazz fan, you're a
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Kings fan. The one thing you have, and maybe this
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: is a bad thing, but the one thing you have
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: is that glimmer of hope that the lottery will be
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: on your side and you can draft the star of
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the future for you. If you shorten these odds, you
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: get rid of this. You don't really have that light
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: at the end of the tunnel that you go into
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the lottery with a little bit of hope, but it's
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: not enough to really to really be attainable. And maybe
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that level of hope puts the GM in the place
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: of the losion at the end of the day. Right, Oh,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: we're gonna keep losing because there's a chance we do this.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: There's a chance we do it. So I can understand
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: both sides of this. But as somebody that has been
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: in the lottery or near the lottery for many years recently,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the one thing I really hold on to is the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: idea of what is it? May fifth, May fourth that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: you know, those Paul balls I get to bounce in
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: my favor and aj de Bondsa puts on the bulls jersey.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Am I crazy? Maybe, But that's what I have as
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: a fan of this team right now. Right If I
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: didn't have that, I don't know what to tell you.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I wish I had some answers. Nobody does.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I wonder when we'll find out. I know they have
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: a meeting in a few weeks here. I wonder if
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna vote on that meeting in boomba boom,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna be the reality of what's going on.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: But I think that it does. It does completely change, Yeah,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the team building of it. All. The way teams look
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: at this year's draft, the way teams look at trades
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: this offseason, the way teams look at the contracts for
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: this upcoming season. All of these things are just evolving
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the game. And I think there is a real chance
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: that if they employ this that four years, five years
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: down the line, we look back on it be like, damn,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: that was a mistake, just like we deal with the
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: sixty five game rule were in real time. When they
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: incorporate the six five game rule, it made sense. There's
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: so many people out there that were sitting just because
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: or a low management. Sixty five game rero cool. We
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: saw a bunch of stars play more games next season.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: But now we're three years, four years down the line,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: we'll say, oh, that sixty five game row was a mistake, right,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: And I wonder if we flatten these odds, if that
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: is the way we're going to look at it in
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the future,