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UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Speaker 1: All system's going clear the lift?
0:36
Speaker 2: What is going Oh? Hold on, but what's going on? Everybody?
0:40
Speaker 2: Let me get this actually right? This is this is embarrassing?
0:44
Speaker 2: What is going on over here? All? Right? There we go.
0:47
Speaker 2: We are back as usual. Hope everybody out there having
0:51
Speaker 2: a great week, having a better week than Connor, hopefully
0:54
Speaker 2: than he had last week. I mean, man, what it
0:56
Speaker 2: disappointing that better than BSD You could go down the list.
0:59
Speaker 2: There were some good fun It's no doubt about that,
1:01
Speaker 2: but man, the main event obviously disappointed. If you were
1:04
Speaker 2: a part of the winning circle. I think it was
1:06
Speaker 2: eight people for fifty thousand congrats, you absolutely will take
1:09
Speaker 2: that all day long. Match was not on the winner.
1:12
Speaker 2: So the main event phase Stevenson fade. It was interesting card.
1:16
Speaker 2: It was some fun. Be parlay that into this week
1:18
Speaker 2: in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Twelve fights card and this guy
1:23
Speaker 2: added yesterday or two days ago. I believe Anderson and
1:26
Speaker 2: Urza Elliott to make it twelve fights and then it's
1:29
Speaker 2: a classic coming off a really big card, throw together
1:33
Speaker 2: twelve shitters. There's a couple of fine ones here and there,
1:36
Speaker 2: but I'd be lying if I think it's a great card.
1:38
Speaker 2: You can see half of the stone isn't even filled out.
1:41
Speaker 2: You need to have three Dana White Contender Series and
1:44
Speaker 2: UFC fights to qualify for to get these numbers. So
1:47
Speaker 2: that shows how many newbies there are on this card.
1:50
Speaker 2: But I think a couple fun ones throughout. We'll see
1:52
Speaker 2: how you doing today? What are your thoughts on this
1:54
Speaker 2: card last week? Anything you want to talk about?
1:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, this card's not great on paper. Last card was
2:02
Speaker 3: a train wreck at the end. I mean, I'm glad
2:06
Speaker 3: I bet on Max. It's not how I saw it
2:09
Speaker 3: going down, but just just a crap show in general.
2:13
Speaker 3: I feel like Connor probably knew he was hurt going
2:16
Speaker 3: into it, and I just wanted to get that paycheck
2:19
Speaker 3: locked in for sure. That's my thoughts, but who knows.
2:22
Speaker 3: I'm glad it's over with, I guess, but this is
2:25
Speaker 3: definitely not my favorite card to come back to. I
2:27
Speaker 3: was kind of like after that card, was like, man,
2:29
Speaker 3: do we have a week off next week? I could
2:30
Speaker 3: use a week off after this, And then I was
2:33
Speaker 3: looking at looking ahead and I was like, who the
2:34
Speaker 3: hell are these people like? I like, actually research this card.
2:38
Speaker 3: So I did it on Sunday. I've already forgot about
2:41
Speaker 3: some of these guys. So I had to do a
2:43
Speaker 3: little bit of extra research today. But we'll see how
2:46
Speaker 3: it goes. I feel like there's a lot of volatile
2:49
Speaker 3: fights and it could be a lot of high scores.
2:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, we'll go through bottom to top like huge.
2:54
Speaker 2: Well we got hard in here, gee fighter with tell
2:58
Speaker 2: you who's Jake Hope? Everybody out there doing well? Again,
3:00
Speaker 2: all we asked like poton and subscribe. It helps us
3:03
Speaker 2: out a ton. Let's start talking with these fights though.
3:06
Speaker 2: Damien again, this was the first fight that was added
3:09
Speaker 2: two days ago to make it twelve fights. Damien Anderson
3:13
Speaker 2: minus one forty five take on Ezra Elliott plus one
3:16
Speaker 2: twenty five. The only prop that's out right now is
3:19
Speaker 2: under one and a half is plus one fifteen. So
3:22
Speaker 2: what I did is then I went to compare other
3:25
Speaker 2: under one and a half props or what's closest on
3:27
Speaker 2: this card, and you have to go all the way
3:28
Speaker 2: to the Tommy McMillan Alberto Monts fight. That's minus three
3:31
Speaker 2: twenty five to finish this McMillan Montas fight now is
3:35
Speaker 2: minus three fifty or three fifty to finish, excuse me,
3:38
Speaker 2: and under one and a half is plus one ten,
3:41
Speaker 2: so we should be looking at about a minus three
3:43
Speaker 2: fifty inside the distance prop if everything's lining up like
3:46
Speaker 2: I'm expecting, which is the second highest on the card
3:51
Speaker 2: after Levi, Re Rodriguez and Fleepe Franco. So I think
3:54
Speaker 2: this is gon be like minus three fifty pretty closely
3:57
Speaker 2: lined fights, so probably priced in the mid tier if
4:00
Speaker 2: that's the case. Obviously, I think he'll be a slam
4:02
Speaker 2: dunk on both sides. But I mean five and Oh
4:05
Speaker 2: Anderson seven to Oh Elliotts. This feels really really low
4:10
Speaker 2: level with guys that aren't probably have much cardios. So
4:14
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna play both sides. I'm gonna load up
4:16
Speaker 2: on both sides. I really don't care who I have
4:18
Speaker 2: more of unless you talk me into something.
4:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I still gotta do my research on this fight.
4:25
Speaker 3: From what I know so far, Anderson looks like a
4:28
Speaker 3: slick BJJ guy. He can grab kneelocks like tricky stuff
4:33
Speaker 3: like that, but he needs to be on the ground
4:36
Speaker 3: for his best work. And then Elliott he should have
4:40
Speaker 3: the striking edge for sure, but he also looked like
4:43
Speaker 3: he was a very willing wrestler. He looked like he
4:46
Speaker 3: was aggressive to get into the clench and go for
4:48
Speaker 3: takedowns as well. But this was all. I only saw
4:51
Speaker 3: highlights of both guys, so I definitely need to watch
4:54
Speaker 3: full fights. I was locked out on my UFC fight
4:56
Speaker 3: pass account though for some reason, was like, what's your
4:59
Speaker 3: full name? Type in my name and it said you
5:01
Speaker 3: need to put in an area code with that phone number,
5:04
Speaker 3: and what do you mean the phone number? That's my name?
5:06
Speaker 3: So I have no way to get past that screen.
5:08
Speaker 3: I couldn't do anything. I don't know what I'm gonna do, actually,
5:12
Speaker 3: but hopefully I get that figured out and I'll watch
5:14
Speaker 3: the fights on these guys. But I am very interested
5:17
Speaker 3: for DraftKings. I feel like we're going to start out
5:19
Speaker 3: the night and when this fight is over, you're gonna
5:22
Speaker 3: wish you had the winner in your lineup. I'm just
5:24
Speaker 3: not sure who that's gonna be right now. I side
5:27
Speaker 3: with the underdog, and that is Urza elliott. I just
5:29
Speaker 3: think he is more ways to win the fight, Like
5:32
Speaker 3: if you got to shoot for leg locks, I'm just
5:34
Speaker 3: not roote for.
5:35
Speaker 2: You to win very many flights. Mute, that's fair enough.
5:41
Speaker 2: You did see last week though with Mario Battista. That's
5:45
Speaker 2: Corey Sanhagen absolutely hammered it after the first round. You
5:48
Speaker 2: could tell it tours handy, I think, is what Sanhagen
5:50
Speaker 2: ended up coming to say. But kind of like the
5:52
Speaker 2: knee bar leg lock those things, yeah, oh yeah, you said, yeah,
5:57
Speaker 2: you tuned out kind of, But yeah, it was a
5:59
Speaker 2: really good it. What's up, Cookie Monster Trader? It was
6:02
Speaker 2: a really good knee bar leg lock attempt changed the
6:04
Speaker 2: whole fight after that. Is leg was absolutely bruise here.
6:08
Speaker 3: I didn't know he pulled his hand me though, That's
6:10
Speaker 3: it makes sense now looking back.
6:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Andrew, we'll get to that in a little bit. Yeah,
6:15
Speaker 2: I don't have to. I don't have a strong take
6:17
Speaker 2: on the side right now. I will be looking at
6:18
Speaker 2: the money. It was Damien Anderson plus one thirty at
6:21
Speaker 2: open now minus one forty five. Again, the line is
6:24
Speaker 2: still pretty new. I doubt the volume on this fight.
6:27
Speaker 2: There's too much of it yet. So this line still
6:29
Speaker 2: can move around quite a bit, and I will be
6:31
Speaker 2: seeing where it goes. But yeah, we'll see where the
6:34
Speaker 2: pricing comes out. I just know I'm gonna want to
6:36
Speaker 2: play a lot of both of them, and hope people
6:38
Speaker 2: get scared to play the first fight, because I do
6:40
Speaker 2: think it delivers one way or another. All Right, next
6:43
Speaker 2: fight on the card, the second highest priced and second
6:46
Speaker 2: biggest favorite, Jannie Barbosa taking on Anna Melisano. We have
6:52
Speaker 2: this fight minus won ninety to finish, as you can
6:55
Speaker 2: see it open minus one forty, minus one forty on Monday,
6:58
Speaker 2: now minus one ninety of money coming in on the under,
7:01
Speaker 2: specifically Barbosa open minus one oh five to finish now
7:05
Speaker 2: minus one sixty for Anna, plus six fifty inside the
7:09
Speaker 2: distance Barbosa round one plus two hundred after opening plus
7:12
Speaker 2: two to twenty five. I'm Barbosa. I think she gets
7:15
Speaker 2: it too the mat, and I think when she does,
7:17
Speaker 2: she probably finds this submission shortly after does that ninety
7:20
Speaker 2: four hundred payoff? I think right now I prefer to
7:23
Speaker 2: play Barbosa then I do Korea because of that four
7:26
Speaker 2: hundred goes a long way. I still do think there's
7:29
Speaker 2: other people below Barbosa that I've interested in as well,
7:32
Speaker 2: But yeah, the full disclosure will be fast forward a
7:35
Speaker 2: little bit. I really don't see myself playing much Korea,
7:37
Speaker 2: and I will be playing Barbosa since that four hundred
7:40
Speaker 2: I think goes long enough away. And if I think
7:42
Speaker 2: she can get a first round sub which is what
7:44
Speaker 2: I'm picking that should score. So yeah, Barbosa taken a
7:47
Speaker 2: lot of money money line inside the distance, and I
7:50
Speaker 2: think it is warranted.
7:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, Barbosa is gonna be my pick to win for sure.
7:55
Speaker 3: I think she's just gonna have a big grappling advantage
7:58
Speaker 3: in this fight. Asano looks like a solid offensive striker,
8:03
Speaker 3: but she can't get cracked defensively. Not that Barbosa is
8:06
Speaker 3: a great striker herself, but I just think if she
8:09
Speaker 3: gets one takedown, she either grinds out the rest of
8:12
Speaker 3: the round or she gets a submission. So I do
8:15
Speaker 3: like Barbosa. Ninety four hundred dollars. I don't love, but
8:18
Speaker 3: on this card it's definitely playable and I'm not going
8:21
Speaker 3: to be playing any COREA just spoiler alert, So I
8:26
Speaker 3: would rather save that four hundred dollars. I doubt I'll
8:28
Speaker 3: have ninety eight hundred dollars to even get up to,
8:30
Speaker 3: but if I do, I'd rather just save it get
8:32
Speaker 3: down to Barbosa have a couple less dupes that way.
8:35
Speaker 3: But yeah, she's my pick to win. On the ground.
8:37
Speaker 2: I like it. You and I see it the same
8:39
Speaker 2: we'll keep it rolling to the next fight on the card.
8:42
Speaker 2: We have Elvin Hines and RJ Harris. Alvin Hines minus
8:46
Speaker 2: one twenty five r J. Harris plus one oh five
8:48
Speaker 2: minus two thirty for this fight to finish Heines plus
8:51
Speaker 2: one twenty five inside the distance, Harris plus one eighty five.
8:54
Speaker 2: Both guys are plus four hundred in round one. Only
8:58
Speaker 2: heavyweight fight on the card. When they are this low,
9:01
Speaker 2: that means a pretty low level, and I would say
9:03
Speaker 2: that's the case. Seven to one Hinds five and oh Harris.
9:06
Speaker 2: We will see Harris with a four inch height and
9:09
Speaker 2: six inch reach advantage. Just looking at the method of
9:12
Speaker 2: victory props Harris to win by sub plus five fifty
9:16
Speaker 2: Hines twelve hundred, so showing Harris the better grappler for
9:19
Speaker 2: KO plus one sixty five Hinds plus three hundred Harris.
9:23
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of seeing it Hines on the feet,
9:25
Speaker 2: Harris on the mat. If that's the case, it's low luff,
9:28
Speaker 2: not low enough level though, whereas like if Harris lands
9:31
Speaker 2: a shot, he obviously can hurt Hines. It's gonna be gross.
9:35
Speaker 2: I'm gonna play both sides because I mean, of course
9:37
Speaker 2: it's a mid tier heavyweight fight expected to finish on
9:40
Speaker 2: a bad twelve fight card. With all that being said,
9:42
Speaker 2: we see fights like this, they'll be boring, fought at distance,
9:46
Speaker 2: and completely bus sometimes, so I would not go all
9:48
Speaker 2: in by any means, but I prefer Hines right now.
9:52
Speaker 2: He actually has fought someone in the UFC, but I
9:55
Speaker 2: think it's really really gross. What about you?
9:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems like one of those fights you would
10:01
Speaker 3: go see like your local bar as a main event,
10:06
Speaker 3: and I mean that could work out for DraftKings. I
10:09
Speaker 3: think they both do kind of want to strike. From
10:11
Speaker 3: what I saw, they both look like primary strikers. Hines
10:14
Speaker 3: is more aggressive. He's the one looking to push forward
10:17
Speaker 3: land some big shots. I do think he is probably
10:19
Speaker 3: more likely to just crashing and land a takedown. Harris
10:23
Speaker 3: looks like the slicker offensive striker, but he is tall,
10:27
Speaker 3: and I think he backs up a lot, and I
10:29
Speaker 3: can see him getting crack just backing up as a
10:31
Speaker 3: tall man. My pick is gonna be hinds to win,
10:33
Speaker 3: but there's no real confidence behind it. I'm not gonna
10:36
Speaker 3: have any betting money on this fight, but I do
10:39
Speaker 3: want to be pretty invested in DFS. I don't know
10:42
Speaker 3: for sure that it's gonna end up as a five
10:44
Speaker 3: star for me once I make lineups, and maybe I'll
10:46
Speaker 3: bump it down to a four star, but it is
10:48
Speaker 3: gonna be up there because I'm want to target this
10:52
Speaker 3: fight pretty heavily and that first fight of the night
10:54
Speaker 3: pretty heavily, and then I feel like I'll either know
10:56
Speaker 3: I'm dead right out of the gates, or maybe I'll
10:59
Speaker 3: have a live line up. I'll have a sweat for
11:00
Speaker 3: the rest of that.
11:02
Speaker 2: I mean, the mid tier is absolutely stacked this week.
11:05
Speaker 2: Assuming Anderson Elliott's in the mid tier, it's gonna be
11:07
Speaker 2: somewhat closely lined heines Harris expected to finish. Then you
11:11
Speaker 2: go up to I mean, we don't I say eighty
11:14
Speaker 2: five hundred and seventy sevens mid tier, but close enough.
11:17
Speaker 2: Rodriguez Franco Big Marley as a five star. The Gatto
11:20
Speaker 2: Bashi is a great fight. McMillan montas five star for
11:24
Speaker 2: Big Marley as well. So I think heavily, and it's
11:27
Speaker 2: not a contrarian take. It's going to be popular, but
11:30
Speaker 2: you could go every single one of those fight or fights,
11:33
Speaker 2: pick someone and then pick I don't know something else where.
11:36
Speaker 2: It leaves seven hundred dollars on the table, and I'm
11:38
Speaker 2: fine with that. I think you could argue those are
11:40
Speaker 2: the foremost high upside fights on this card outside of
11:43
Speaker 2: the main event, and even the main events are four stars,
11:46
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's one thing. That's actually another reason if
11:49
Speaker 2: you do want to fade the Heines Harris fight, or
11:51
Speaker 2: you're more willing to, it's because those other three fights
11:54
Speaker 2: right in that range most definitely can outscore. But yeah,
11:57
Speaker 2: I love the mid tier. Hind's my pick. I will
12:00
Speaker 2: have some Harris though, of course, as of closely lined
12:03
Speaker 2: fights that's expected to finish. All right, Let's get to
12:06
Speaker 2: the ninety eight hundred Eldon Corea, who's minus eleven hundred
12:09
Speaker 2: taking on Stuart Nickel, who's plus seven to twenty five
12:11
Speaker 2: on the way back, minus two sixty for this fight
12:14
Speaker 2: to finish, Corey inside the distance minus two to fifteen
12:17
Speaker 2: Nickel plus eight hundred Corey a round one plus one
12:20
Speaker 2: point fifty. We talked about it with Stevenson last week,
12:25
Speaker 2: and Stevenson had way better props, was a decent sized,
12:28
Speaker 2: bigger favorite, was way more likely to finish, way more
12:31
Speaker 2: likely to finish in round one. We still didn't love it.
12:34
Speaker 2: Obviously it's a different car, different number of fights, all
12:37
Speaker 2: of that, but it's really hard to pay ninety eight hundred.
12:40
Speaker 2: He's not even expected to win in round one, so
12:43
Speaker 2: I think you're probably hoping a buzzer beater round two
12:46
Speaker 2: finish with a whole lot of volume and maybe potential knockdowns,
12:50
Speaker 2: multiple knockdowns. That is. I'm not going to play much.
12:53
Speaker 2: I think it's a too big of a price tag.
12:54
Speaker 2: I don't love the dogs that much. One twenty still
12:57
Speaker 2: might not be enough, So no thanks really for me.
13:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, he could be ninety six hundred dollars and I
13:03
Speaker 3: wouldtch him off of this card. Yeah, he's just not
13:07
Speaker 3: the type of fighter I want to target in DraftKings.
13:10
Speaker 3: I do think he's a really good striker. He's gonna
13:11
Speaker 3: have the offense, I mean, the entire striking edge, and
13:16
Speaker 3: it's just that he's not a big power striker. And
13:20
Speaker 3: I also don't think he's a great wrestler. To orre,
13:23
Speaker 3: he's gonna want to land a bunch of takedowns and
13:25
Speaker 3: keep a bunch of top control time. I think if
13:28
Speaker 3: anyone's wrestling in this fight, it's got to be Nickel.
13:30
Speaker 3: That's his only chance to win. I just don't think
13:33
Speaker 3: he's good enough to wrestle consistently for fifteen minutes against
13:36
Speaker 3: this guy. Cray probably picks him apart and either cruises
13:41
Speaker 3: to a decision or I do think the shots add
13:44
Speaker 3: up and he gets a TKO stoppage at some point.
13:47
Speaker 3: His ninety eight hundred dollars is just a lot to pay.
13:49
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be tough for him to crack
13:52
Speaker 3: ninety points in general, so I'll just x him out.
13:55
Speaker 3: If he's on the optimal lineup, You're not gonna see
13:57
Speaker 3: me up there.
13:58
Speaker 2: He that's fair enough. I'm pretty much in the same
14:00
Speaker 2: boat as you. If I'm playing thirty or something, I'll
14:03
Speaker 2: let myself get a couple sprinkles. But I do not
14:05
Speaker 2: like this fight. Definitely not going to be playing any nickel.
14:09
Speaker 2: Let's get to a good fight to targets. Eighty six
14:11
Speaker 2: hundred Rodriguez seventy six hundred Franco Franco minus. Let me
14:16
Speaker 2: make sure I got yeah. Rodriguez minus won forty five
14:19
Speaker 2: as the eighty six hundred dollars price fighter Franco plus
14:22
Speaker 2: one twenty five on the way back minus four hundred
14:24
Speaker 2: for this fight. To finish the most likely on the
14:26
Speaker 2: card Rodriguez minus won thirty five inside the distance Franco
14:30
Speaker 2: plus two to thirty five Rodriguez in round one plus
14:33
Speaker 2: two fifteen. Everything lines up, and it's kind of similar
14:37
Speaker 2: to the Heines Harris fight in the sense of it
14:40
Speaker 2: not the highest level by any means, but I think
14:42
Speaker 2: someone's gonna go down. Eighty six hundred seventy six hundred
14:46
Speaker 2: most likely to finish, doesn't break the bank. All the
14:49
Speaker 2: upside in the world on both sides, a lot of unknowns,
14:51
Speaker 2: but I will embrace the unknowns. Similar to that first fight.
14:54
Speaker 2: Plenty of lineups will be dead. That's that's the difference
14:57
Speaker 2: of a sport like MMA and NFL showed all stuff
15:00
Speaker 2: like that. You're never dead an NFL showdown because your
15:03
Speaker 2: guy can get a touchdown or whatever at the end.
15:05
Speaker 2: When you play for Franco and forty percent Rodriguez, forty
15:09
Speaker 2: percent of your teams will be dead after this fight.
15:12
Speaker 2: I'm fine taking that stance because if the other one's optimal,
15:15
Speaker 2: that's how you get a lot of leverage. I'm not
15:17
Speaker 2: sure which one's gonna win, but I want a lot
15:20
Speaker 2: of both. I guess Franco might prefer play because he's
15:22
Speaker 2: one k cheaper. Do you see any different? How do
15:25
Speaker 2: you see this fight going?
15:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, my preferred play is gonna be Rodriguez. Franco does
15:32
Speaker 3: have early knockout power. He's also gonna be the better
15:35
Speaker 3: wrestler in this fight, but I think all his success
15:38
Speaker 3: comes early. You'll probably get early wrestling, or he could
15:41
Speaker 3: probably get that early knockout, or if he doesn't, I
15:44
Speaker 3: just think he gases. And Rodriguez is the better overall striker,
15:49
Speaker 3: and I think he's got enough power too, or he
15:51
Speaker 3: could get a knockout in any round. But the longer
15:54
Speaker 3: it goes, the less a Franco we're gonna have to
15:57
Speaker 3: compete with. And I just think Rodriguez gets a TKO
15:59
Speaker 3: at some point. So I like Rodriguez. I think it
16:02
Speaker 3: is probably even a first round knockout. Hopefully he's not
16:05
Speaker 3: taken down in the first round. Franco gases and then
16:08
Speaker 3: we get a second round knockout from Rodriguez. That's probably
16:12
Speaker 3: that's probably off the optimal at that point if you're
16:14
Speaker 3: not getting any points in the first But I'm hoping
16:16
Speaker 3: this is a fight that ends in the first round.
16:20
Speaker 2: Couple line movement notes in this one it opened a
16:23
Speaker 2: complete pick them at minus one ten. Then we saw
16:26
Speaker 2: Rodriguez take the money, go to like minus one eighty
16:30
Speaker 2: five range, and then ever since, Franco has taken some
16:32
Speaker 2: money back. So I put these money line odds up.
16:35
Speaker 2: On Monday, it was minus one eighty five Rodriguez. Now
16:39
Speaker 2: on Thursday it's minus one forty five, so Franco has
16:42
Speaker 2: taken some money this week. We will see where the
16:44
Speaker 2: line goes after that great fight to Target, though again
16:48
Speaker 2: I prefer Franco by a little big Marley prefers Rodriguez.
16:52
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna be hoping it is a fight that
16:54
Speaker 2: ends up optimal one way or the other. Next fight
16:58
Speaker 2: on the card, Sick Home taking on Jean Paul Lesbian,
17:03
Speaker 2: uh eleven. Hold on, let me get this right.
17:06
Speaker 3: Lebus I screwed up every time.
17:10
Speaker 2: It's such a sick name too. Lebos Nioni, thank you,
17:14
Speaker 2: lebos Nioni. Man, that's a look at those names together.
17:18
Speaker 2: Let's go with lebos Nioni plus one seventy CO minus
17:22
Speaker 2: two hundred plus one ten for this fight to finish.
17:25
Speaker 2: Lebozioni plus three ten inside the distance CO plus two
17:29
Speaker 2: thirty five. Neither have great round one props the fights
17:32
Speaker 2: expected to go to the distance by a little bit.
17:35
Speaker 2: Uh co has shown that he will wrestle though, as
17:37
Speaker 2: you can see, four takedowns per fifteen minutes and then
17:41
Speaker 2: uh Lebo's Nioni on the other side, a solid inside
17:43
Speaker 2: the distance prop of plus three ten as seventy four
17:47
Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Very indifferent from me to this one. Lebos
17:50
Speaker 2: Nioni my preferred place since we need dogs on this card. Yeah,
17:54
Speaker 2: I guess how much do you think Coke can go
17:56
Speaker 2: out there and wrestle? Though? Can he get five plus takedowns?
17:59
Speaker 2: Because obviously so. Then I'll play a little bit of
18:01
Speaker 2: him too.
18:03
Speaker 3: I guess he could. I doubt he does, though, I
18:07
Speaker 3: would probably set his takedown prop at like two and
18:09
Speaker 3: a half, but that is where his edge would be
18:14
Speaker 3: would be the wrestling. He is a decent wrestler, but
18:17
Speaker 3: Lebosnioni is a pretty solid grappler himself. I think he
18:22
Speaker 3: could hunt for submissions off of his back, and I
18:25
Speaker 3: also do like him to be the better striker in
18:27
Speaker 3: this one. So if the takedowns aren't there for co
18:29
Speaker 3: I just think that Lebosnioni's going to be the pick
18:33
Speaker 3: in this one, so I kind of thought this would
18:35
Speaker 3: have been closer to a pick him line. So that's
18:38
Speaker 3: what made me pick Lebosnioni as my pick to win.
18:42
Speaker 3: And I don't really have too many underdogs that I'm
18:44
Speaker 3: picking or feeling good about winning on this card, so
18:46
Speaker 3: that's going to make me overweight to him, for sure.
18:48
Speaker 3: I don't feel good about him scoring well on DraftKings,
18:52
Speaker 3: but I just kind of want to pick I mean,
18:54
Speaker 3: go overweight to him and just let the cards follow
18:57
Speaker 3: where they were where they will, and hopefully he scores
18:59
Speaker 3: enough to give me a shot at least. But he's
19:01
Speaker 3: my pick. I'll be underweight to Co.
19:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he wins, I would take any wins. Seventy
19:05
Speaker 2: two points sure, seventy four hundred this twelve fight card
19:08
Speaker 2: that could be enough. Twelve versus fourteen is a big difference,
19:13
Speaker 2: especially if very few dogs win on this card. In
19:15
Speaker 2: terms of line movement, as you can see, it was
19:17
Speaker 2: minus two thirty CO on Monday, now it's minus two hundred.
19:21
Speaker 2: He opened minus two fifty, went to the minus two
19:23
Speaker 2: hundred range, stayed there for a bit, took some money,
19:26
Speaker 2: got to like minus two thirty five, and then the
19:28
Speaker 2: Bosnioni has taken some money back there, so the Bosnioni
19:32
Speaker 2: might preferred play I wanted to. I don't know. I'm
19:36
Speaker 2: kind of unsure what I'm gonna do with co yet.
19:38
Speaker 2: I definitely know I'm not gonna fully x him just
19:40
Speaker 2: because of the wrestling upside he has. But eighty eight hundred,
19:42
Speaker 2: there is others I prefer in the range, So just
19:45
Speaker 2: indifferent to him, but I think he will be pretty
19:47
Speaker 2: low owned as a pivot if you do want to
19:49
Speaker 2: go that route. Let's go to one of my favorite
19:52
Speaker 2: fights on the card, A straight pick them Jose Delgado
19:55
Speaker 2: Austin Bashi minus one ten apiece minus won thirty for
19:58
Speaker 2: this fight to finish. Delgatto one eighty intiled distance Bashie
20:02
Speaker 2: plus two seventy five, So it was plus one hundred
20:06
Speaker 2: to finish on So I did the money line odds
20:09
Speaker 2: on Monday and inside the distance Tuesday because they weren't
20:12
Speaker 2: out yet, So plus one hundred for the fight to
20:14
Speaker 2: finish Tuesday now minus one thirty. That's a decent bit
20:17
Speaker 2: of difference. I mean, all I know is Austin Bashie
20:20
Speaker 2: is always a DraftKings play. The dude is a straight wrestler.
20:23
Speaker 2: He will shot eighteen takedowns against se Rod only got
20:26
Speaker 2: three of them and lost. But if Bashie wins, he's
20:29
Speaker 2: gonna score. I think he probably has the most upside
20:33
Speaker 2: on the slate, very very close to it, if not
20:35
Speaker 2: the most. And Delgado on the other side, he can strike,
20:39
Speaker 2: he can grapple, he has power Bashie. If he can't
20:43
Speaker 2: get takedowns, I think he's gonna be in trouble. So
20:45
Speaker 2: I'm playing this fight for sure. In the mid tier.
20:48
Speaker 2: I'm picking Bashie though. I think his wrestling will work.
20:51
Speaker 2: I think he can drown Delgado a bit, and if
20:53
Speaker 2: he wins, I feel confident he's on the optimos. So yeah,
20:56
Speaker 2: I'm on the Austin Bashie train in this one. I
20:58
Speaker 2: do think Delgado's interesting actually, because I think Bashie I
21:02
Speaker 2: could see Bashi being like forty percent. I'm curious your take.
21:05
Speaker 2: Maybe the mid tier is two staffed, but if everyone
21:08
Speaker 2: talks about the style, he has minus one ten at
21:12
Speaker 2: seventy nine hundred plus two seventy five to finish. If
21:15
Speaker 2: he does get to that forty percent mark, they'll gotta
21:17
Speaker 2: like twenty three percent. Then you're talking of the game theory.
21:20
Speaker 2: The ownership. Maybe del Gatto might preferred play, but I
21:24
Speaker 2: like this fight a lot. What are your thoughts. How
21:26
Speaker 2: do you see a play now?
21:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, just either on the ground Bashie wins or on
21:31
Speaker 3: the feet del Gatto wins. I do think it's a
21:33
Speaker 3: pick him for that reason, but where it could look
21:37
Speaker 3: like either guy should have been a minus four hundred
21:39
Speaker 3: favorite after the fight. I just don't know who it's
21:42
Speaker 3: gonna be. And I picked Bashi to win because when
21:45
Speaker 3: I was going over it on Sunday, it was plus
21:48
Speaker 3: one hundred Bashie, so I went with the plus money side.
21:51
Speaker 3: I would have taken del Gotto if he was the
21:53
Speaker 3: plus money side, though, But I do think you're right.
21:56
Speaker 3: I think Bashie is going to be pretty owned on
21:58
Speaker 3: this card, maybe the second or third highest phone on
22:02
Speaker 3: the entire card, So maybe that could switch who I
22:06
Speaker 3: prefer on DraftKings and go straight to del Gatto. But
22:10
Speaker 3: you're right, man, if Bashi wins, he is gonna score well.
22:13
Speaker 3: But if del Gatto wins, I don't know that that's
22:15
Speaker 3: a given, especially if Bashi has a lot of success
22:19
Speaker 3: himself in the wrestling game and he's taken away from
22:22
Speaker 3: the time. Del Gatto could be scoring, So I think
22:26
Speaker 3: you're playing with a higher ceiling and higher floor with
22:29
Speaker 3: a Bashie win, and del Gatto just has a range
22:31
Speaker 3: from like fifty to one hundred and ten points. Man,
22:35
Speaker 3: it could be anywhere on the del Gatto side, so
22:37
Speaker 3: I'm not sure, but I do think you're right on
22:39
Speaker 3: the ownership. Del Gotto could come in maybe even half
22:42
Speaker 3: his own as Bashie, and that could be the decider.
22:46
Speaker 3: Makes me you want to go the other way instead,
22:48
Speaker 3: But I'm looking forward to this fight to watch it.
22:50
Speaker 3: I have no idea who the hell's gonna win. If
22:52
Speaker 3: the line switches and do Goato has the plus next
22:55
Speaker 3: to his name, I'll be going into it picking him instead,
22:58
Speaker 3: But I think it's gonna be a good fight to it.
23:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, the more like Bashi's twenty percent or fifty percent,
23:05
Speaker 2: I'm still playing Bashie. Obviously, I would play more at
23:08
Speaker 2: twenty than I would if he was at fifty, but
23:11
Speaker 2: he's just someone I'm not gonna fade at this price
23:13
Speaker 2: with the upside he has Delgatto on the other side.
23:16
Speaker 2: If Bashi's fifty percent, I like Delgado a whole lot
23:18
Speaker 2: more than if Bashi's twenty percent because of the leverage
23:22
Speaker 2: you get against him, like, if Bashie's not getting much ownership,
23:25
Speaker 2: Dalgatto can easily win this fight. Like you're saying a
23:28
Speaker 2: second or a third round knockout and just not score
23:31
Speaker 2: because in the first round Bashi maybe dominates for five minutes,
23:34
Speaker 2: Delgado's off his back, fighting off takedowns. Just on one
23:38
Speaker 2: shot knockout, boom, eighty two points. That's not gonna be
23:41
Speaker 2: enough or whatever it is. So when the appeal on
23:44
Speaker 2: Delgado is that is inside of the distance is solid,
23:47
Speaker 2: but it is more so Bashie's projected ownership or at
23:50
Speaker 2: least what we're projecting it to be at, which I
23:52
Speaker 2: do think will be high when it's all said and done.
23:55
Speaker 2: So Bashi and Chalker teams Delgado and teams to get
23:58
Speaker 2: a little bit of different. But bash you might prefer play.
24:01
Speaker 2: Let's go right to another mid tier fight, the most
24:04
Speaker 2: likely to finish. As of now, we got Tommy McMillan
24:08
Speaker 2: minus one sixty two taking on Alberto Montes plus one
24:12
Speaker 2: forty two minus three fifty for this fight to finish.
24:15
Speaker 2: McMillan plus one twenty excuse me, inside the distance Monts
24:18
Speaker 2: plus one fifty McMillan round one plus three hundred Montes
24:22
Speaker 2: plus four hundred, and man, that's McMillan was plus three
24:26
Speaker 2: seventy five in round one, now plus three hundred, so
24:29
Speaker 2: a decent bit of line movement there. And also McMillan
24:32
Speaker 2: opened plus one sixty as you can see on Monday
24:35
Speaker 2: it was minus one fifteen minus one oh five, and
24:38
Speaker 2: now he's sitting at a minus one sixty two favorite,
24:40
Speaker 2: So people are loving themselves some Tommy, do you see
24:44
Speaker 2: it that way? What do you think of this fight?
24:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I do like I do like Tommy.
24:50
Speaker 3: I think he's a fun fighter. I think it's gonna
24:52
Speaker 3: be a great fight to target. I am interested in
24:55
Speaker 3: that line one, So I was kind of thinking that
24:59
Speaker 3: Monte might have more round one equity because he does
25:03
Speaker 3: have big punching power. I would say, like one punch
25:07
Speaker 3: punching power he might have more of than McMillan. And
25:10
Speaker 3: then I also think he is gonna be the better
25:12
Speaker 3: grappler in this one. If you get one of those
25:14
Speaker 3: head and arm chokes, he could put McMillan to sleep.
25:17
Speaker 3: But the longer this fight goes, I just think the
25:20
Speaker 3: more he gases and the more McMillan will start to
25:23
Speaker 3: pick up the pace and McMillan is the better striker,
25:26
Speaker 3: the higher volume striker. I trust his cardio more and
25:30
Speaker 3: I think that even in a three round win, I
25:32
Speaker 3: think he could have a high enough pace to be
25:34
Speaker 3: over one hundred points. So I like McMillan in this one.
25:37
Speaker 3: I do think that I'm gonna I'm probably gonna go
25:42
Speaker 3: along with the line movement in this one. I'm gonna
25:44
Speaker 3: make McMillan my four star, Montes my two star. It
25:48
Speaker 3: was pick him, I think when I was going over it,
25:50
Speaker 3: But I did pick McMillan to win. I felt like
25:53
Speaker 3: he should be a little bit of the favorite, and
25:56
Speaker 3: he's the more fun fighter. I think he's just got
25:58
Speaker 3: a higher ceiling in the stardom factory. So give me
26:02
Speaker 3: some Tommy McMillan. I think this could be a fun
26:04
Speaker 3: fight and he could score one hundred and twenty points
26:07
Speaker 3: and really break the slate for sure.
26:10
Speaker 2: I want to say Big Millon's my preferred play too.
26:12
Speaker 2: With that being said, it's similar to that to Gado
26:14
Speaker 2: Bashi fight. When we're talking ownership, I mean eighty two
26:17
Speaker 2: hundred a k is priced like it's minus one fifteen
26:20
Speaker 2: minus one oh five, which it was about that when
26:23
Speaker 2: it came out. Now people are going to see an
26:25
Speaker 2: eighty two hundred at minus one sixty. If that's where
26:27
Speaker 2: it does close, I mean that puts them very strongly
26:30
Speaker 2: as a cash play, one of the strongest tournament plays.
26:34
Speaker 2: Eighty two hundred doesn't break the bank, and next thing
26:36
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes it goes overboard and he's like forty
26:39
Speaker 2: eight percent McMillan in nineteen percent Montas, and then it's like,
26:42
Speaker 2: all right, give me the Manta side all day. If
26:44
Speaker 2: he wins, he still should score high volatile fight. And
26:48
Speaker 2: it's only a two hundred price difference. So whether you
26:51
Speaker 2: leave the two hundred or you zero it out, it's
26:53
Speaker 2: a big enough ownership gap. So yeah, I think a
26:56
Speaker 2: lot of it depends on if I plug. Like if
26:58
Speaker 2: I ran my process and I I McMillan projected at
27:01
Speaker 2: forty three percent in Monta's at nineteen, I'd be more
27:04
Speaker 2: over to the field to Mantas. If it's thirty five
27:07
Speaker 2: McMillan and twenty eight Montas, I'd prefer McMillan even at
27:10
Speaker 2: slightly more ownership. So that's the game we play with MMA.
27:13
Speaker 2: There's only so many combination, especially with twelve flights when
27:17
Speaker 2: you win, how much do you win with all of it?
27:19
Speaker 2: Pretty much at first place. I think right now, I
27:22
Speaker 2: think the ownership gap will be wide enough where Montas
27:25
Speaker 2: might be my preferred play, But I could be I
27:28
Speaker 2: could be wrong, obviously. I just think that's a whole
27:30
Speaker 2: lot of line movement. People see it at eighty two hundred.
27:34
Speaker 2: But all right, rank these this McMillan, Montas, Delgado, Bashie
27:38
Speaker 2: ranked those four for me?
27:40
Speaker 3: Oh man, Yeah, not including ownership, I'd say Tommy, Bashie, Delgatto, Montes.
27:53
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna go Bashie Montes, Tommy Delgado, and
27:56
Speaker 2: just for the reasons I'm going with ownership that's in
27:59
Speaker 2: my I had right now. I still think Bashi's upside
28:03
Speaker 2: Montas for the leverage. Tommy's still a great play, but
28:05
Speaker 2: when you play and get a little different and then
28:07
Speaker 2: Delgatto definitely fourth. All right, we will keep it rolling.
28:11
Speaker 2: Wanted to spend a Yeah. I mean, that's two of
28:12
Speaker 2: the best fights on the card, right in the mid
28:14
Speaker 2: tier that we just talked about, so I wanted to
28:16
Speaker 2: spend some time on that for sure. In depth. Big
28:19
Speaker 2: favorite do we have Fatima Klein minus five hundred take
28:23
Speaker 2: it on Tabitha Ricci plus three seventy five. Uh, hopefully
28:27
Speaker 2: my computer loads trying to see what this fight is
28:31
Speaker 2: to finish. Let me refresh real quick man, Seeing Tabitha
28:35
Speaker 2: Ricci is this big of a dog, chows a lot
28:38
Speaker 2: about what the books and people think of Fatima clin.
28:41
Speaker 3: Yeah.
28:41
Speaker 2: Also, can I do you have fight outs? Mine's tweaking
28:46
Speaker 2: right now, just absolutely buffering now that they refresh it. Do
28:49
Speaker 2: you have the fight to finish inside the distant props
28:51
Speaker 2: on each side?
28:52
Speaker 3: Oh no, it's not. Letting me pull up props, nah, mine,
28:57
Speaker 3: let me in a while. There it is out there
28:59
Speaker 3: we go, There we go.
29:00
Speaker 2: All right, I got it plus two fifty to finish
29:03
Speaker 2: Client plus two eighty five inside a distance Ricci plus
29:05
Speaker 2: nine hundred. I don't have much interest in Ricci. I
29:09
Speaker 2: think Klein's better wherever the fight goes. My only concern
29:12
Speaker 2: is Client's dominant on the map. But like the easiest
29:15
Speaker 2: path seems to be to keep it on the feet
29:17
Speaker 2: plus twenty five instid of the distance isn't great. I
29:19
Speaker 2: prefer Barbosa for one hundred more, and I prefer people
29:23
Speaker 2: like Rodriguez McMillan. I don't know about cole Chase Hooper,
29:29
Speaker 2: probably even Christian Leroy Duncan. I just don't think I
29:32
Speaker 2: see myself really paying ninety three hundred much. Yeah, pretty
29:35
Speaker 2: much a fight fade. What are you doing?
29:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure on this one. I actually moved
29:39
Speaker 3: it from a two star to a three star because
29:41
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. McK klein is just a really good
29:44
Speaker 3: fighter all around. I think she has the potential to
29:47
Speaker 3: knock out Ricci. She could dominate her on the feet
29:50
Speaker 3: for three rounds. She can even wrestle if that's what
29:52
Speaker 3: she wants to do. She's just good everywhere, so I
29:56
Speaker 3: think because she's good everywhere and she can wrestle, I
29:59
Speaker 3: think three hundred isn't play, and she's not gonna get
30:02
Speaker 3: much ownership, So I'm okay with Climb. On the Riachie side,
30:05
Speaker 3: I don't think she's gonna get owned either, and I
30:08
Speaker 3: don't think she's gonna win, But she is a primarily
30:12
Speaker 3: wrestler grappler, and she's gonna win this fight. It has
30:15
Speaker 3: to be heavy top control for at least two rounds,
30:18
Speaker 3: and if she wins, she's gonna score more than ten
30:20
Speaker 3: x and probably more than eighty points, more than maybe
30:24
Speaker 3: even ninety points. Uh, So, I don't know that I
30:26
Speaker 3: want to fade Richie on this card. I think she
30:29
Speaker 3: could have some wrestling success, and I thought the line
30:32
Speaker 3: was a little bit wide as well, So I think
30:35
Speaker 3: I'll keep her in my pool. Maybe limit her to
30:37
Speaker 3: like fifteen to twenty percent. And I'm okay with the
30:40
Speaker 3: same thing on the client side, maybe limit her to
30:42
Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty five. But I'm much more excited to
30:45
Speaker 3: go watch cliin fight and see where she goes in
30:49
Speaker 3: the UFC. She's not sure that ninety three hundred dollars
30:52
Speaker 3: on this card is what I'm really loving to pay.
30:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you like you? Sound like you like this
30:58
Speaker 2: fight a little more than me? No, thanks to either
31:00
Speaker 2: side would have to be playing over twenty teams. More
31:03
Speaker 2: than likely a fight that I don't need to be
31:05
Speaker 2: playing twenty teams to get to is Chase Hooper and
31:08
Speaker 2: Mitch Ramirez Chase Hooper minus four to twenty five Mitramerez
31:12
Speaker 2: plus three twenty five minus two seventy for this fight
31:15
Speaker 2: to finish. Hooper minus won sixty inside the distance, Ramiras
31:18
Speaker 2: plus four hundred chasing round one plus two ten. So,
31:23
Speaker 2: looking at where this line movement has gone Chase open
31:26
Speaker 2: minus two thirty. Now you find here's minus two thirty,
31:30
Speaker 2: minus four hundred on Monday, and he's gotten a little
31:33
Speaker 2: bit of buyback. Actually, man, So this morning it was
31:37
Speaker 2: minus three thirty and now he's minus four twenty five.
31:41
Speaker 2: So money's this one has taken quite a bit of money.
31:45
Speaker 2: So yeah, minus four hundred on Monday, I broke this
31:48
Speaker 2: fight down. This afternoon it was still minus three thirty
31:51
Speaker 2: and now he's minus four twenty five again, minus won
31:54
Speaker 2: sixty to finish plus two ten in round one. Wants
31:57
Speaker 2: the fight on the mat, reversals, takedowns, top control, you
32:02
Speaker 2: name it. He has the upside. It's been tough as
32:05
Speaker 2: a Chase Hooper backer for quite some time. These last
32:08
Speaker 2: two fights have not treated me well at all. But
32:10
Speaker 2: that being said, I'm gonna go right back to the well.
32:13
Speaker 2: I think he can get takedowns. When he does, I
32:15
Speaker 2: think he's absolutely gonna dominate Mitch Ramirez. I don't know
32:19
Speaker 2: how much Mitch Ramirez I want. I liked him a
32:21
Speaker 2: lot more at plus two seventy this morning or whatever
32:24
Speaker 2: he was around there now instead of like plus three twenties.
32:27
Speaker 2: So Hooper, for sure, I'm not sure about Mitch Ramirez.
32:29
Speaker 2: I'll let you maybe talk me in or out of him.
32:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, picking Hooper to win. Hooper has one of the
32:34
Speaker 3: highest ceilings on the car, especially for favorites. Yeah, I'm
32:39
Speaker 3: definitely gonna be picking him. But if he's gonna look
32:42
Speaker 3: to strike at all, it gives Ramirez a knockout chance.
32:44
Speaker 3: In any fight that Hooper's in and he wants to strike,
32:47
Speaker 3: I gotta target the other guy as well, because Hooper
32:50
Speaker 3: has no chin at all. I think Ramirez is lying
32:52
Speaker 3: for one hundred and ten points with the first round
32:54
Speaker 3: knockout in this one. So I like him more than
32:57
Speaker 3: I like Ricci. But it's also more of a hedge
33:01
Speaker 3: because I'm gonna have a lot of Hooper for sure.
33:03
Speaker 3: I feel like Hooper round one submission is how this
33:06
Speaker 3: fight should end. It's just is he gonna go for takedowns?
33:11
Speaker 3: How successful is he with those takedowns? And can he
33:14
Speaker 3: get them before he gets cut?
33:17
Speaker 2: I feel like he has to after especially after these
33:19
Speaker 2: last two fights, Like, come on, dude, it's as simple
33:23
Speaker 2: as it gets. Get the fight to the mat. When
33:25
Speaker 2: you're on the mat, you dominate, you don't take damage,
33:28
Speaker 2: you get paid more. He's gonna take him down and
33:32
Speaker 2: get a submission. I feel good about that. I don't know.
33:34
Speaker 2: I don't see myself playing too much rich Mitch Ramirez.
33:37
Speaker 2: I prefer other underdogs on this card, but I think
33:39
Speaker 2: he has one of the highest ceilings as an underdog,
33:42
Speaker 2: because yeah, if he doesn't get takedowns, he can get
33:44
Speaker 2: knocked out at or Chase Hooper that is, can't get
33:47
Speaker 2: knocked out at any time. All right, we have two
33:50
Speaker 2: fights left comin event and made Events. Let me jump
33:53
Speaker 2: over to our ship the Nation homepage. This is what
33:55
Speaker 2: we're looking at right here. You still got PGA going on.
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Speaker 2: know some people struggle with. Get your ownership styled in
34:54
Speaker 2: min max, very easy to do on Sabersim, get projections, ownership.
34:59
Speaker 2: The Stone Station, which all of our content now is
35:02
Speaker 2: over there at once. In Big Marley's fight rankings, let
35:06
Speaker 2: me hop back over to the Stone, we were talking
35:08
Speaker 2: about the second last fight the Comine Event, Christian Leroy Duncan,
35:11
Speaker 2: a minus four hundred favorite taking on Jared cannoneer minus
35:15
Speaker 2: one ten for this fight to finish CLD plus one
35:18
Speaker 2: forty inside the distance Cannon near plus five hundred CLD
35:22
Speaker 2: in round one plus four hundred. I said, I'd prefer
35:26
Speaker 2: CLD to Cline. I think there's similar will be similarly owned,
35:30
Speaker 2: and similar plays. CLD better are more likely to finish,
35:34
Speaker 2: but doesn't really have the wrestling upside, where Klein does
35:37
Speaker 2: have the wrestling upside there. I just don't think she
35:40
Speaker 2: uses as uses it as much with Ricci, which is
35:43
Speaker 2: why I prefer CLD. Cannon here has just taking so
35:45
Speaker 2: much damage. CLD can when it rains, it pours with him.
35:49
Speaker 2: When he really feels himself and he gets downhill and
35:52
Speaker 2: his opponent's hurt, he'll pour it on. But I don't know.
35:55
Speaker 2: I don't love it because it can be low volume,
35:58
Speaker 2: it can be fought at distance, and he does have
36:00
Speaker 2: much wrestling upside, so he needs a hurt cannoneer. Do
36:03
Speaker 2: you think he does hurt him?
36:05
Speaker 3: Yeah? I do think he does at some point, or
36:08
Speaker 3: if he doesn't, he probably does just cruise to a decision.
36:12
Speaker 3: He is the better striker in this one. He is
36:14
Speaker 3: gonna have more power consistently over the fifteen minutes. But
36:18
Speaker 3: for DraftKings at ninety one hundred, we do need an
36:21
Speaker 3: early knockout for him to score one hundred plus points,
36:25
Speaker 3: which is what we're gonna need, and I don't know
36:28
Speaker 3: how likely that is actually. I picked him to win
36:31
Speaker 3: a unanimous decision, and if that's going to be the case,
36:34
Speaker 3: I think Klein's gonna outscore him because she would score
36:37
Speaker 3: more minutes a minute than he would.
36:40
Speaker 2: I agree with that. If both go to decision, I
36:42
Speaker 2: think Klein for sure CLD's toast. I mean, I mean
36:46
Speaker 2: Clein still has outs at the optimal if it goes
36:49
Speaker 2: to distance, I don't think CLD has many.
36:51
Speaker 3: Right, but Duncan way more likely for a first round
36:54
Speaker 3: knockout to get one hundred and ten plus. And I
36:58
Speaker 3: did move it to a three star because that I
37:00
Speaker 3: am worried. I mean, Kenyoneers, forty two years old, now
37:04
Speaker 3: taking a lot of damage, still looks all right for
37:06
Speaker 3: his age, and he would be our more likely wrestler
37:09
Speaker 3: in this one. He's got knockout power himself, so I'm
37:12
Speaker 3: not gonna x out Kenyon here. He's similar to a
37:15
Speaker 3: Ramirez in a Ricci type of pump for me, where
37:19
Speaker 3: I don't feel good about him winning, but if he does,
37:21
Speaker 3: he's gonna score well. But I think it's it's past
37:25
Speaker 3: his time. Dunkin too good of a striker. I'll pick
37:28
Speaker 3: Duncan to win, and I'd imagine I'll be underweight, but
37:32
Speaker 3: not so far underweight that I get burned if he
37:35
Speaker 3: does get a first one.
37:36
Speaker 2: Not got Yeah, that sounds about right. You can see
37:39
Speaker 2: on Monday CLD was minus three thirty now he's minus
37:42
Speaker 2: four hundred. So another guy that's taken quite a bit
37:44
Speaker 2: of money. The under is taken a little bit as well.
37:47
Speaker 2: Was plus one hundred to finish now minus won ten.
37:51
Speaker 2: All right, it's the main events, not a five star though,
37:54
Speaker 2: so maybe we are able to fade it even with
37:57
Speaker 2: limited lineups. It's Drikus who's minus two forty five. I've
38:00
Speaker 2: taken on Kamara Uspan plus two ten, minus one thirty
38:03
Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, Dracus plus one thirty five
38:06
Speaker 2: inside the distance Usman plus four hundred Dracus in round
38:10
Speaker 2: one plus seven hundred. Yeah, I guess I'll just throw
38:14
Speaker 2: it to you right on this, like, how do you
38:15
Speaker 2: see this fight going? But can you fade Drikus? Like
38:19
Speaker 2: plus one thirty five to finish plus seven hundred and
38:21
Speaker 2: round one. That's really bad when you compare to other
38:25
Speaker 2: fighters in that range. They're on one prop, I should say,
38:27
Speaker 2: is really bad compared to others. Inside the distance is fine,
38:32
Speaker 2: but obviously you got an extra ten minutes to work
38:34
Speaker 2: if this fight does go to the later rounds which
38:37
Speaker 2: it is expected to do so, and both can wrestle,
38:40
Speaker 2: So yeah, really cares hear your take on this fight?
38:45
Speaker 3: Yeah? Actually, I definitely wouldn't fade duplus this. I think
38:50
Speaker 3: his knockout chances more of a chance than Vegas does. Actually, uh,
38:54
Speaker 3: and I'm picking him to win by knockout. Nine k
38:58
Speaker 3: is tough to pay if Usman's able to have early
39:01
Speaker 3: wrestling success, I don't think Usman can wrestle for twenty
39:05
Speaker 3: five minutes successfully against a guy like DDP with his
39:09
Speaker 3: knees being shot the way they are. He's getting up there,
39:12
Speaker 3: damn near forty years old himself. I had a lot
39:16
Speaker 3: of wrestling and fight years behind him, So I think
39:19
Speaker 3: Usman is really just early wrestling success. And then I
39:24
Speaker 3: think it's all DDP from there. And if it's too
39:26
Speaker 3: late for DraftKings, maybe I'll just hammer a live player
39:31
Speaker 3: or something like that, because I just think that round three,
39:33
Speaker 3: round four, round five, it's got to be all DDP,
39:37
Speaker 3: and I don't know that Usman can handle those types
39:39
Speaker 3: of punches that are coming from him. I think dvp's
39:42
Speaker 3: going to be a lot bigger, a lot stronger, and
39:45
Speaker 3: just a better overall striker and more aggressive, better cardio.
39:50
Speaker 3: So I like DDP to get a knockout at some
39:52
Speaker 3: point in this fight, and if he doesn't get a knockout,
39:54
Speaker 3: I think he wins the last three rounds it gets
39:57
Speaker 3: his hand raised. But I probably more likely to fade Usman.
40:01
Speaker 3: I think he is going to get a decent amount
40:03
Speaker 3: of ownership, and I just don't think that this is
40:06
Speaker 3: going to be a fight. I think I was all
40:07
Speaker 3: in on Usman against Buckley, but this is just a
40:10
Speaker 3: totally different matchup in my opinion, much tougher matchup to
40:14
Speaker 3: wrestle heavily. I know Chamaia just did it really easily,
40:18
Speaker 3: but Chamaiev is a different animal and he's got way
40:21
Speaker 3: better needs than Usman does as well. So this is
40:25
Speaker 3: the most confident I've ever felt in DVP, I think
40:28
Speaker 3: in his UFC career, which kind of scares me a bit.
40:31
Speaker 3: And I've been an Oosman backer his entire career, but
40:35
Speaker 3: I just think time's up for Usman and it's a
40:37
Speaker 3: bad matchup for him.
40:41
Speaker 2: You kind of said it best at the end, where
40:42
Speaker 2: I am like the most confident I've been in Dricus,
40:45
Speaker 2: and that really scares me because I've gotten drinkas wrong
40:47
Speaker 2: so much throughout his career. Seeing where this fight opened
40:51
Speaker 2: minus two forty Dricus immediately took money, got all the
40:54
Speaker 2: way down to minus three seventy five, stay there for
40:57
Speaker 2: a decent bit, and then slowly but shirly, OUs On
41:00
Speaker 2: is taken money back, and that is quite a bit
41:02
Speaker 2: of money. Dracus minus three seventy five at his peak
41:05
Speaker 2: now minus two forty five. If Usman wins, like I
41:08
Speaker 2: feel confident he's on the optimal, Yeah, there's past, there's
41:12
Speaker 2: if it's really boring, like I guess Usman can win
41:15
Speaker 2: and score seventy five. I even think on the feet
41:17
Speaker 2: like Dracus will make him throw enough volume or something
41:20
Speaker 2: to be something happen. But yeah, I just don't love
41:23
Speaker 2: too many dogs on this card, so as a plus
41:26
Speaker 2: two five underdog, I'm naturally just gonna play some at
41:29
Speaker 2: seventy two hundred since I don't love everything else, and
41:31
Speaker 2: I can get different with the CLD or Delgado or
41:35
Speaker 2: something in that lineup as far as Dracus the upper like,
41:39
Speaker 2: I would like drinkas a lot less if it was
41:41
Speaker 2: like last week's card of the fourteen fights and what
41:43
Speaker 2: felt like a really strong Upparsier this week, it feels
41:46
Speaker 2: a little more watered down. So drikus is one oh
41:49
Speaker 2: one at nine K feels a lot better than if
41:52
Speaker 2: you knew, like Max Holloway was getting one on one
41:54
Speaker 2: last week or whatever. So for that reason, I think,
41:57
Speaker 2: just naturally I'm gonna play a good amount of the
41:59
Speaker 2: main event. With that being said, though I would prioritize
42:03
Speaker 2: these mid tier fights McMillan's Bashie Delgado, Rodriguez Franco. I
42:08
Speaker 2: guess maybe even Heinz Harris a little bit. Oh No,
42:11
Speaker 2: Anderson Elliott, like I'm gonna be loading up on that
42:13
Speaker 2: mid tier and because those are so chalky when you
42:16
Speaker 2: are playing a lot of like Bashi and McMillan teams
42:19
Speaker 2: together and then one other chalk, maybe that's when I'll
42:22
Speaker 2: fade the main event. By no means am I going
42:24
Speaker 2: to make a rule, But yeah, both guys can wrestle
42:26
Speaker 2: as twenty five minutes to work, probably get to the
42:29
Speaker 2: championship rounds. I wish I had a stronger lean on
42:33
Speaker 2: this card, like I never lied to the people. Some
42:36
Speaker 2: I can get really up for and get really excited.
42:38
Speaker 2: Prize are massive, a lot of fights and more combinations,
42:41
Speaker 2: and some just feel kind of Dusty. There's money to
42:44
Speaker 2: be made, but it feels like people will be on
42:46
Speaker 2: the same page on which fight's a target and which
42:48
Speaker 2: ones not to which can lead a little more dupes.
42:50
Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe I'm being a little too pessimistic.
42:53
Speaker 2: Bring me some bring me some nice words to close
42:55
Speaker 2: it out about this week's card or anything that you
42:57
Speaker 2: got Big Marley.
42:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm just gonna hammer the mid range
43:01
Speaker 3: and if I leave salary on the table, then so
43:04
Speaker 3: be it. But I do like Hooper, I like DDP
43:06
Speaker 3: as well. Then aside from those guys, it's just gonna
43:09
Speaker 3: be all right. How can I get different on this
43:11
Speaker 3: card and maybe take it down solo. I'm also probably
43:14
Speaker 3: not gonna play a ton of lineups on this card.
43:17
Speaker 3: I just don't think it's the most exciting car to
43:19
Speaker 3: get pumped up for, especially after last week. So for me,
43:23
Speaker 3: I'm gonna start it out heavily with that first fight
43:25
Speaker 3: of the night and see how it goes. And if
43:27
Speaker 3: I have a sweat, that'll make it more exciting for me.
43:29
Speaker 3: But if not, maybe I'll find other Saturday plans. But
43:33
Speaker 3: good luck to you, I don't good luck to everybody
43:35
Speaker 3: listening let's ship it.
43:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, good luck to everybody for sure. Again, all of
43:38
Speaker 2: our content will be up tomorrow, Projections Ownership to Stone.
43:42
Speaker 2: It will be color coded, fully completed. Big Marley's fight
43:45
Speaker 2: rankings on the slate station. You'll get the tier rankings
43:47
Speaker 2: in there, my breakdown for each one that is new,
43:51
Speaker 2: like we have for all the other sports that we
43:53
Speaker 2: incorporated for MMA as well. Again Chipination dot com. You
43:56
Speaker 2: can join the nation for all the different options to
43:59
Speaker 2: get in. Definitely do get in the discord if you
44:02
Speaker 2: do join. We got an everything is stage these days,
44:05
Speaker 2: and we got yn saying good luck, good luck to you,
44:08
Speaker 2: y sent Andrew, appreciate you catching us live for the
44:11
Speaker 2: first for your first show. Connor Pereira, Hey, you never know, man,
44:16
Speaker 2: crazy things have happened. But yeah, let's hopefully we get
44:19
Speaker 2: a little surprising good twelve fight card. If you're going
44:21
Speaker 2: to them in Oklahoma City, I am jealous. You could
44:24
Speaker 2: have any any two fighters fighting in a con in
44:28
Speaker 2: a con in an octagon in their underwear, and you
44:31
Speaker 2: will get me very excited. So definitely enjoy it. The
44:34
Speaker 2: UFC always puts on an awesome show. Let's see some
44:37
Speaker 2: ship in aation and logos at the top of the
44:39
Speaker 2: leader boards for My Man Date Marley, I'm title talent,
44:42
Speaker 2: good luck, be safe.
44:43
Speaker 4: Piece and bass have been still have bas and then
45:12
Speaker 4: Steep d Ant and the still