Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Money Is Destroying American Politics + Illinois Primary Was Ground Zero For Dark Money
Transcript
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- 1:46Speaker 1: as well. Hello thereon, Welcome to the Thursday edition of
- 1:54Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. I have today's going to be a
- 1:57Speaker 1: bit more domestic, a bit moreocused on that obviously. Look
- 2:01Speaker 1: that the most important story impacting American politics is and
- 2:06Speaker 1: will continue to be the Iran War until it is
- 2:09Speaker 1: not right because of the impact it has on our economy,
- 2:13Speaker 1: the sort of symbolic impact it has on the economy
- 2:16Speaker 1: with gas prices, things like that, but the actual war itself,
- 2:21Speaker 1: the conduct of this war will we end up escalating
- 2:26Speaker 1: all these questions securing the straight of horn moves. It
- 2:30Speaker 1: is going to continue to be essentially and I think
- 2:36Speaker 1: if you're like I said, it's similar I said yesterday.
- 2:38Speaker 1: If you're a Republican running on the ballot in twenty
- 2:43Speaker 1: twenty six, you just wish this war would end in
- 2:46Speaker 1: some form or another, that you could turn the page
- 2:48Speaker 1: on this. But it isn't going to happen very quickly,
- 2:50Speaker 1: very easily. This is going to continue to be I
- 2:55Speaker 1: think the biggest story that will impact the larger sort
- 3:01Speaker 1: of perception of the direction of the country, and it
- 3:04Speaker 1: will certainly impact what is campaigned on. But at the
- 3:09Speaker 1: end of the day, whether the war was happening or not,
- 3:12Speaker 1: the issue of the economy and democracy issues would be
- 3:15Speaker 1: in some ways front and center. And my sub stack
- 3:17Speaker 1: theme this week is about how the only primary and
- 3:21Speaker 1: I think there's some important political follout from that that
- 3:23Speaker 1: I'll share with you in a few minutes. A huge
- 3:25Speaker 1: win for Juliana Stratton number one, but number two, and
- 3:29Speaker 1: maybe in the near term the bigger winner might be JB. Pritzker,
- 3:35Speaker 1: the governor of Illinois. I think those of us I'm
- 3:38Speaker 1: somebody who's you know, I wasn't sure. I didn't have
- 3:42Speaker 1: him in my top tier of twenty twenty eight ers.
- 3:44Speaker 1: Let's just say, you know, I'm paying a lot more
- 3:46Speaker 1: respect than to him now, and I see him as
- 3:50Speaker 1: I think, you know, you're the governor you're able to
- 3:54Speaker 1: take on You're a billionaire governor, and you're able to
- 3:57Speaker 1: take on these huge super packs from the crypto industry
- 4:01Speaker 1: and from the tech and AI industries, and you're able
- 4:03Speaker 1: to win. Although in this case, I think it was
- 4:09Speaker 1: really more of the crypto folks that he was taking
- 4:11Speaker 1: on more than anybody else. It says something, and I
- 4:16Speaker 1: certainly have and I want to get to that in
- 4:19Speaker 1: a minute. But I want to tackle this issue of
- 4:21Speaker 1: money in politics because it's all kind of tied in
- 4:24Speaker 1: together a little bit. And let's just say, for years
- 4:34Speaker 1: I didn't spend a lot of time on the issue
- 4:36Speaker 1: of campaign finance and money and politics, not because I
- 4:38Speaker 1: didn't think it was a problem. I just never really
- 4:42Speaker 1: believed it would ever really become a big issue in
- 4:45Speaker 1: American politics. Even as you hear, as I'll hear plenty
- 4:50Speaker 1: of sort of you know, non professional in this space.
- 4:54Speaker 1: I E. Voters, I E. Those that pay attention going,
- 4:57Speaker 1: we've got to do something about money in politics, because
- 5:02Speaker 1: I was a skeptic when that there was any reform
- 5:05Speaker 1: that was even possible, that there was no curbing of money,
- 5:11Speaker 1: and it wasn't because I thought the system was healthy,
- 5:13Speaker 1: quite the opposite. I just assumed the problem was unbeatable.
- 5:18Speaker 1: It was too adaptive, it was too clever, if you will,
- 5:22Speaker 1: And I had this working assumption. I used to do
- 5:25Speaker 1: this all the time. I'd quote Jeff Goldbloom's character in
- 5:28Speaker 1: Jurassic Park when the old man reassures the scientists that
- 5:32Speaker 1: he brings to show off his dinosaurs. Oh no, no, no,
- 5:36Speaker 1: they're not going to pro create. I've been able to
- 5:39Speaker 1: manipulate their DNA so that they can't pro create. And
- 5:43Speaker 1: Goldblum's characters, you know, he's the guy who I guess
- 5:46Speaker 1: promotes chaos theory and mathematics, and he basically says life
- 5:49Speaker 1: finds a way and he turns out to be right. Well,
- 5:52Speaker 1: I've always felt that way about money in politics, right,
- 5:54Speaker 1: Money always finds a way. You try public financing, it
- 5:57Speaker 1: gets outgrown, you try to cap contribution. Well, then you
- 6:00Speaker 1: get bundling, which sort of a work around every reform
- 6:04Speaker 1: in in my adult lifetime, in franctly, my entire lifetime
- 6:08Speaker 1: has been has been turned against itself. Right, you ban
- 6:12Speaker 1: soft money from the major parties, then that money moves
- 6:16Speaker 1: outside the parties and you say, have less of an
- 6:19Speaker 1: opportunity to keep control of your of your party. Mcain
- 6:23Speaker 1: fine Gold was supposed to clean things up, and instead
- 6:26Speaker 1: it helped create the modern superPAC system that is absolutely
- 6:29Speaker 1: destructive to the political campaign system as we know it.
- 6:33Speaker 1: Every single reform I've seen tried created a workaround that
- 6:36Speaker 1: became made the problem worse. So you get to the
- 6:39Speaker 1: point you're like, well, just go find your you know.
- 6:42Speaker 1: And you saw there was no neither party would ever
- 6:46Speaker 1: have a permanent advantage on money, you know, because that's
- 6:49Speaker 1: the way markets work, right, When one one side's up,
- 6:52Speaker 1: the other side finds it finds disgruntled rich people to
- 6:55Speaker 1: help them, right, And and so there was an uneasy
- 6:58Speaker 1: balance that you would see in this, and so you thought, well,
- 7:02Speaker 1: at least it's fair, it's ugly, it's gross, but at
- 7:07Speaker 1: least it's balanced between the two parties over time. So
- 7:15Speaker 1: it was going to be messy, it was going to
- 7:16Speaker 1: be imperfect, but ultimately it was probably unfixable, especially once
- 7:22Speaker 1: the courts decided that money was speech, so then you
- 7:25Speaker 1: had to have a constitutional moment, and what the hell
- 7:26Speaker 1: would that constitutional moment look like? But I do think
- 7:30Speaker 1: we missed something along the way, because when we pushed
- 7:33Speaker 1: big donors out of the parties, this was a I
- 7:36Speaker 1: think this, you know, I have you know, McCain fine gold.
- 7:38Speaker 1: And there were plenty of detractors of McCain fine gold
- 7:42Speaker 1: because they just simply wanted more big money in politics.
- 7:44Speaker 1: But there were other detractors of McCain fine gold who
- 7:47Speaker 1: worried it would weaken them two political parties. And I
- 7:50Speaker 1: think those folks have proven to be right. And let
- 7:53Speaker 1: me explain, we didn't just move money when we got
- 7:55Speaker 1: rid of money big money checks being written to political
- 7:58Speaker 1: parties directly, he actually removed one of the only guard
- 8:02Speaker 1: rails in vetting candidates that we had. When you take
- 8:06Speaker 1: the parties out of the candidate vetting business, and you
- 8:09Speaker 1: do this when you no longer allow them to have
- 8:11Speaker 1: the financial resources to help candidates win, then you had
- 8:16Speaker 1: real consequences to what kinds of candidates would suddenly pop
- 8:19Speaker 1: up for all of their flaws, And there were plenty
- 8:22Speaker 1: with the party organizations. They did serve a kind as
- 8:26Speaker 1: kind of a filter. Wasn't a perfect filter and wasn't
- 8:29Speaker 1: always a fair filter, but they would ask basic questions
- 8:33Speaker 1: like is this person stable? Do they have good judgment?
- 8:37Speaker 1: Can they handle power? Can they handle stress? Sometimes just
- 8:40Speaker 1: the basic vetting process and an HR department would have
- 8:46Speaker 1: And because that's where you had to get your resources
- 8:49Speaker 1: and your money, you as the candidate sort of where
- 8:52Speaker 1: you kind of you had to apply to the parties,
- 8:53Speaker 1: if you will, unofficially, and the parties had a stake
- 8:58Speaker 1: in the long term health of the coalition and they
- 9:00Speaker 1: couldn't just get behind somebody that could win now if
- 9:03Speaker 1: they thought that person's reputation could end up harming the
- 9:06Speaker 1: overall reputation of the party itself. But now well, that
- 9:10Speaker 1: function has been entirely outsourced, and it's been outsourced to
- 9:14Speaker 1: donor networks, to ideological entrepreneurs, to outside groups, and those
- 9:20Speaker 1: actors aren't asking the same questions that leaders of the
- 9:23Speaker 1: two actual political parties used to ask of their candidates.
- 9:27Speaker 1: They don't ask is this person fit? They're asking can
- 9:31Speaker 1: this person win? And will this person be useful, useful
- 9:36Speaker 1: to fund, useful to protect useful to stop something. They
- 9:40Speaker 1: have their own incentive. They're looking for somebody that aligns
- 9:42Speaker 1: with them on a specific issue, specific topic of issue focus. Right,
- 9:47Speaker 1: So that then Trump's character it, Trump's ethics, Trump's morals,
- 9:53Speaker 1: and Trump branding. Right. It's a completely different screening mechanism
- 10:00Speaker 1: and it produces a completely different kind of politics. Then
- 10:03Speaker 1: you lay around Citizens United, and now the system isn't
- 10:06Speaker 1: just adaptive, it's protected. Political spending becomes speech, and suddenly
- 10:12Speaker 1: meaningful restrictions are almost impossible without a constitutional fight. So
- 10:16Speaker 1: for a long time I thought this is it, this
- 10:18Speaker 1: is the system, until recently that is because something has changed.
- 10:24Speaker 1: Are there's always a tipping point, right, there's always, you know,
- 10:28Speaker 1: everything in moderation, But eventually you're not moderating your habits.
- 10:32Speaker 1: You've tipped. So let me give you a moment where
- 10:36Speaker 1: I clicked for me. And I keep coming back to
- 10:38Speaker 1: this and I bring it up in a lot of
- 10:39Speaker 1: my appearances now and I'm going to continue to do so.
- 10:42Speaker 1: When Chuck Schumer reportedly told fellow Democratic senators to ease
- 10:45Speaker 1: up on their opposition to the crypto industry, not because
- 10:49Speaker 1: they changed their minds and they saw that crypto was
- 10:51Speaker 1: going to be this incredible. Maybe this would be a
- 10:54Speaker 1: helpful tool in the financial sector. But because of the
- 10:57Speaker 1: political firepower of a singular super called fair shake, these
- 11:02Speaker 1: were huge players in Illinois, and by the way, they
- 11:04Speaker 1: get their ass kecked in Illinois, they did not have
- 11:05Speaker 1: a good night. For what it's worth, But think about that,
- 11:09Speaker 1: elected officials being told to soften their positions on a
- 11:12Speaker 1: specific issue because an industry simply has too much money
- 11:16Speaker 1: to challenge them. That's not influence, that's not persuasion, that's coersion.
- 11:21Speaker 1: It's policy extortion. And once you see that clearly, then
- 11:27Speaker 1: all the stuff starts to look differently because what we're
- 11:30Speaker 1: dealing with now is not just a lot of money
- 11:32Speaker 1: in politics. It is something bigger. It's the shift from
- 11:37Speaker 1: candidate centered politics to donor centered politics. And this is
- 11:43Speaker 1: what was so crystal clear about all of the Illinois
- 11:46Speaker 1: primaries that happened earlier this week. And it wasn't just
- 11:49Speaker 1: in the Senate race. It was also in these house
- 11:50Speaker 1: races where every single candidate came with a descriptor that
- 11:54Speaker 1: said the fairshake back candidate, the AI back candidate, the
- 11:58Speaker 1: A packed back candidate, this back candidate. Right, it was
- 12:02Speaker 1: never just about the candidate, even in Juliana Stratton's case,
- 12:05Speaker 1: who didn't have one big industry behind her, she had
- 12:07Speaker 1: a big billionaire governor behind her. She was Governor Pritzker's candidate, right,
- 12:12Speaker 1: But it was not about the candidates. It was about
- 12:15Speaker 1: their supporters, about the donors. So now there was a
- 12:20Speaker 1: specific reason why Illinois became kind of ground zero for
- 12:23Speaker 1: this moment. Right. It's a very blue state, and they
- 12:27Speaker 1: had a bunch of elderly members of Congress who finally
- 12:29Speaker 1: decided to retire, the big one being Dick Durbin. Right,
- 12:32Speaker 1: you got elected in ninety six. You know, by the way,
- 12:35Speaker 1: for what it's worth, I think if you were elected
- 12:37Speaker 1: to office in the twentieth century, you probably shouldn't be
- 12:39Speaker 1: seeking reelection in twenty six. And if you do, don't
- 12:42Speaker 1: be surprised if you get primaried and you have a problem.
- 12:45Speaker 1: But I digress. So Dick Durbin retires, there's an open seat,
- 12:49Speaker 1: deep blue state, which means the primary becomes the election
- 12:54Speaker 1: and it's not just an election for six years. Dick
- 12:57Speaker 1: Derbin got elected in ninety six and was there for
- 13:00Speaker 1: thirty years, worked his way up in the leadership number
- 13:02Speaker 1: two in leadership. So this is a very I mean,
- 13:06Speaker 1: that's what you're investing in. You're not just investing in
- 13:08Speaker 1: one six year term. You're potentially investing in one of
- 13:12Speaker 1: the next leaders of the United States Senate over a generation.
- 13:16Speaker 1: So if you're you've got interest before Congress, this is
- 13:21Speaker 1: a valuable asset to acquire, i e. Having a senator
- 13:26Speaker 1: that may feel beholden to your industry. So if you're
- 13:30Speaker 1: that interest group and you think you can influence this primary,
- 13:33Speaker 1: you may be buying influence for a generation. So what
- 13:37Speaker 1: did voters get? Though? They didn't get a traditional campaign,
- 13:40Speaker 1: They didn't get a real debate between the candidates. You know,
- 13:43Speaker 1: in fact, if you didn't have one of these things yet,
- 13:45Speaker 1: it was really hard for the candidates. I never felt
- 13:48Speaker 1: like I got to know the candidates. I only knew
- 13:50Speaker 1: them through their donors and through who their supporters were.
- 13:53Speaker 1: And it turned into a proxy war. Right. You had
- 13:55Speaker 1: crypto money, AI money, a pack link money, billionaire money,
- 13:58Speaker 1: governor money front group, shell acts, you name it. By
- 14:01Speaker 1: the end of it, voters knew what these interests wanted, perhaps,
- 14:05Speaker 1: but that they really know what kind of candidate they
- 14:07Speaker 1: were getting. Now, I think in Stratton. She found a
- 14:10Speaker 1: way to break through, interestingly enough, because she went viral
- 14:14Speaker 1: with an ad that didn't air on mainstream television because
- 14:17Speaker 1: you'd had to bleep it out too much. But it
- 14:19Speaker 1: was the F Trump at and if you haven't seen it,
- 14:20Speaker 1: I encourage you to go see it. During our livestream,
- 14:23Speaker 1: we aired a vision of it, but it's just a
- 14:25Speaker 1: whole bunch of voters saying F Trump, and then Stratton says,
- 14:27Speaker 1: I'm not saying it, but it was her way of
- 14:30Speaker 1: basically virtue signaling, Hey, she's going to be a fighter.
- 14:32Speaker 1: She wants to punch the bully in the nose. And
- 14:35Speaker 1: I think it mattered. It also mattered that the governor,
- 14:37Speaker 1: I think is popular with rank and filed Democrats because
- 14:40Speaker 1: he's been fighting Trump and he's been you know what,
- 14:42Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom has gotten a lot more credit for arguably
- 14:45Speaker 1: Pritzker's been doing before. Newsom thought it was a cool
- 14:47Speaker 1: way to do. But we still had something odd take
- 14:53Speaker 1: place this week in Illinois in that voters again I think,
- 14:58Speaker 1: ended up having to to select candidates based on what
- 15:03Speaker 1: third party groups create. The character of third party groups
- 15:08Speaker 1: were created by them, So they were watching messages written
- 15:10Speaker 1: by people who may never actually have been on the
- 15:12Speaker 1: ballot and will never be on the ballot. And here's
- 15:15Speaker 1: the part that should bother everyone. These outside groups, they
- 15:19Speaker 1: often don't even campaign on the issue they actually care about.
- 15:22Speaker 1: A crypto group may never mention Crypto, an AI group
- 15:24Speaker 1: may never mention AI entirely. An Israel focused group may
- 15:27Speaker 1: decide that's too politically complicated to lead with. So what
- 15:30Speaker 1: do they do. They find another issue, immigration, crime, corruption, ideology,
- 15:34Speaker 1: and they use that as the delivery system. So voters
- 15:37Speaker 1: think they're watching one debate when they're actually being moved
- 15:40Speaker 1: onto another. And that's not persuasion. That becomes misdirection, right,
- 15:44Speaker 1: And the candidates don't really feel accountable to it because
- 15:47Speaker 1: in some ways they can't control these outside groups, and
- 15:51Speaker 1: the outside groups have no accountability because none of us
- 15:53Speaker 1: know who their donors are in time to cover it
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- 16:16Speaker 1: I going to pay for college? And lo and behold.
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- 16:25Speaker 1: and it's why I was able to go to college.
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- 17:35Speaker 1: trust me, life insurance is something you should really think
- 17:38Speaker 1: about it, especially if you've got a growing family. So
- 17:44Speaker 1: as a candidate, you weirdly kind of stuck because you
- 17:46Speaker 1: can't coordinate with the groups, and so they get pulled
- 17:50Speaker 1: into campaigns they didn't design. They just sort of participate
- 17:53Speaker 1: into a campaign that was created by an outside group
- 17:56Speaker 1: on terrain. They didn't choose answering for messages. They didn't right,
- 18:01Speaker 1: So the whole idea of independent spending becomes part of
- 18:03Speaker 1: the problem. And this is where the loss of party
- 18:06Speaker 1: control I think matters a lot, because parties used to
- 18:09Speaker 1: have to think about the entire electorate, the whole coalition,
- 18:12Speaker 1: long term consequences. Now we didn't just decentralize money, we
- 18:17Speaker 1: decentralized responsibility, and we hollowed out the institutions that had
- 18:21Speaker 1: to care about more than one donor's obsession, which brings
- 18:25Speaker 1: us to the core problem inanimity. If you want to
- 18:28Speaker 1: vote in secret, you should. The secret ballot is sacred.
- 18:32Speaker 1: That's a fundamental right. But if you want to spend
- 18:35Speaker 1: millions influencing everyone else's vote, sorry, you don't deserve secrecy.
- 18:42Speaker 1: You need to put your name on it immediately, not
- 18:45Speaker 1: on some tax reform through a LLC six months later,
- 18:50Speaker 1: in real time, in plain English. No shell companies, no
- 18:54Speaker 1: front groups, no hiding three layers deep, stand by your money.
- 19:02Speaker 1: In fact, let me make it simple, take a page
- 19:04Speaker 1: from NASCAR. If you want to spend big money in politics,
- 19:07Speaker 1: but the donor on the hood every ad, every mail,
- 19:10Speaker 1: or every digital buy, because that's the tradeoff. Influence comes
- 19:15Speaker 1: with visibility. You want to have influence, everybody needs to
- 19:18Speaker 1: know it with her democracy. It's on the ballot and
- 19:21Speaker 1: it needs to be put on the ballot now. Even
- 19:23Speaker 1: if that doesn't solve the whole problem, because the deeper
- 19:25Speaker 1: issue is what this system does to candidates. It doesn't
- 19:29Speaker 1: just reward certain positions, it punishes others. So candidates learn,
- 19:33Speaker 1: They learn what fights are too expensive, like crypto apparently,
- 19:36Speaker 1: so they soften, they go quiet, they delay, or they
- 19:38Speaker 1: stand down entirely not because they've been persuaded, but because
- 19:41Speaker 1: they understand the cost that comes with dissent, which in
- 19:45Speaker 1: some ways is what they crypto. I mean, this is
- 19:48Speaker 1: what they've done. They've amassed such a financial juggernaut and
- 19:52Speaker 1: fair shape that they just want to intimidate politicians into
- 19:59Speaker 1: legalizing what is a questionable what many people find questionable
- 20:05Speaker 1: in its usefulness. But once that happens, the problem isn't
- 20:10Speaker 1: just money in politics. It's that money is defining the
- 20:12Speaker 1: boundaries of politics. What can be said, what can't be said,
- 20:16Speaker 1: what gets debated, what gets avoided. And here's the thing,
- 20:19Speaker 1: this is no longer just a left wing complaint. I'm
- 20:22Speaker 1: now hearing it from Republicans, free market conservatives, people with
- 20:26Speaker 1: their own scars from dark money, starting to say this
- 20:29Speaker 1: out loud. And that's new. And this is why I
- 20:32Speaker 1: think why we might have hit a tipping point where
- 20:34Speaker 1: maybe the public is ready to do something about it,
- 20:37Speaker 1: and maybe the politicians are going to grow a spine
- 20:40Speaker 1: and do something about it, because the scale here is undeniable.
- 20:44Speaker 1: Not that long ago, billionaire money was a rounding error.
- 20:46Speaker 1: I'm not kidding. I mean you've seen it. It was barely
- 20:48Speaker 1: one percent of campaign money came from billionaires pre Citizens United.
- 20:53Speaker 1: Now it's approaching one out of every five dollars spent
- 20:57Speaker 1: on federal campaigns comes from a billionaire. We are moving
- 21:01Speaker 1: towards something new, but it looks like institutionalized billionaire politics, right,
- 21:09Speaker 1: a political gilded age. Now, to be clear, this doesn't
- 21:13Speaker 1: mean every candidate backed by wealthy interest is corrupt. American
- 21:17Speaker 1: politics has always had patrons, but the structure of it matters, right,
- 21:21Speaker 1: And the structure we have now encourages voters to believe
- 21:23Speaker 1: candidates are simply stand ins for their donors, and that
- 21:28Speaker 1: perception alone is what is so corrosive, and it creates
- 21:31Speaker 1: a barrier to entry that should worry all of us.
- 21:34Speaker 1: We got rid of poll taxes for a reason. You
- 21:37Speaker 1: can't charge people for access to a constitutional right. But
- 21:40Speaker 1: we've built something similar on the candidate side. A system
- 21:43Speaker 1: we're running for office seriously requires access to wealth, patrons
- 21:48Speaker 1: or donor networks. That's a shadow tax on a candidacy. Now,
- 21:55Speaker 1: candidates will tell you fairly that they didn't write these rules,
- 21:57Speaker 1: and they're right, they didn't. Can be rational for the
- 22:01Speaker 1: participants and still be unacceptable for the public, and this
- 22:04Speaker 1: is where we're at. The reforms aren't mysterious, real time disclosure,
- 22:09Speaker 1: no anonymous money, clear donor identification. Maybe some structural fixes
- 22:14Speaker 1: like runoffs or ranked choice voting won't fix everything, but
- 22:17Speaker 1: it will store one basic idea that voters should know
- 22:20Speaker 1: who is trying to persuade them and why, because in
- 22:23Speaker 1: many cases it's not the candidates that are trying to
- 22:25Speaker 1: persuade voters anymore. It's some anonymous donor who's funding that candidate.
- 22:33Speaker 1: So the danger now isn't that money influences outcomes. It's
- 22:36Speaker 1: that it defines the menu of choices itself, like you
- 22:42Speaker 1: don't even know there's an alternative because it doesn't have
- 22:45Speaker 1: the funding to present itself on your menu of options before.
- 22:49Speaker 1: It's like what happens in Iran? Right? You know, yes,
- 22:52Speaker 1: it's a democracy, but the regime decides who gets to
- 22:55Speaker 1: be on the ballot. So is it really a choice
- 22:58Speaker 1: in anybody that is, you know, any presential candidate that's
- 23:00Speaker 1: calling for actual, small de democratic reform, they somehow don't
- 23:03Speaker 1: make the ballot. That's essentially what we're seeing here, donors
- 23:07Speaker 1: deciding who's viable, who's not, what's debated, and what gets dropped.
- 23:12Speaker 1: That's how democracy gets reshaped into a kleptocracy quietly before
- 23:17Speaker 1: a single vote has even cast. And that's why this
- 23:19Speaker 1: has finally potentially become a voting issue, not because reform
- 23:23Speaker 1: is easy, but because voters are starting to see the
- 23:25Speaker 1: system for what it is. In Illinois. It's not the exception.
- 23:30Speaker 1: It's just a warning. And it's interesting because Illinois features
- 23:35Speaker 1: a billionaire governor, a billionaire governor who's tried to fight
- 23:40Speaker 1: the some of these other billionaires. And you know, this
- 23:45Speaker 1: feeds into a notion. And this is why I think
- 23:48Speaker 1: that you know, hey, look we're going to look on
- 23:52Speaker 1: one primary does not make a presidential candidate, but it
- 23:55Speaker 1: is a data point that matters. And you know, the
- 24:02Speaker 1: f Trump at it's possible that you have a group
- 24:07Speaker 1: of Democrats who say, well, this system is so rigged
- 24:11Speaker 1: that maybe they've got to find their billionaire to fight
- 24:17Speaker 1: the other billionaires. And I'm not just making this up.
- 24:20Speaker 1: One of you was my substact reader, made a comment
- 24:26Speaker 1: on my substack column that was on the that was
- 24:29Speaker 1: similarly themed here, and I just want to read you
- 24:34Speaker 1: to hand in hand here because I think it. I
- 24:36Speaker 1: think it's a it's illustrative of where I think there
- 24:39Speaker 1: is a faction of the Democratic Party. And I've, like
- 24:42Speaker 1: I said, I've heard other at a progressive consultant tell
- 24:44Speaker 1: me I'm looking for my own Trump right anyway, let
- 24:47Speaker 1: me read you to what one of my commenters too
- 24:49Speaker 1: on substack said, this is the most terrifying thing I've
- 24:52Speaker 1: read in a while, and I read a lot of
- 24:53Speaker 1: AI doomsday articles. What do we do about it? Writing
- 24:56Speaker 1: or calling your congress person feels inadequate. I've known campaign
- 24:59Speaker 1: find answer was a problem for a long time, but
- 25:01Speaker 1: it feels like the only way to change it is
- 25:03Speaker 1: to become a billionaire, win elections and then fight the
- 25:05Speaker 1: other billionaires. What do normal citizens do short of pulling
- 25:08Speaker 1: out the guillotines? This was just a simple question to him,
- 25:11Speaker 1: And what I want to say to Ryan asked who
- 25:13Speaker 1: wrote this in is you may need to You may
- 25:17Speaker 1: need to show your guillotine. I'm not saying you use
- 25:20Speaker 1: the guillotine, but you almost need to, Like it's like
- 25:23Speaker 1: you walk t you walk quietly and carry a big
- 25:26Speaker 1: stick like you're guillotine. You're your stick. Or maybe you
- 25:30Speaker 1: hire a billionaire to do this right, And that's I
- 25:32Speaker 1: think the JB. Pritzker pitch. Hey, I'm a billionaire. I
- 25:36Speaker 1: know how these guys work, and in some ways it's
- 25:38Speaker 1: the mirror image of how Trump convinced a frustrated Republican
- 25:42Speaker 1: base that was tired of losing, tired of compromising, tired
- 25:45Speaker 1: of the mccains and the Romneys of the world, and
- 25:47Speaker 1: they wanted somebody who made them feel better and expressed
- 25:52Speaker 1: what they thought they couldn't say anymore, right, and that
- 25:55Speaker 1: was Donald Trump. Well that's what the Juliana Stratton f
- 25:59Speaker 1: Trump ad. I think there's a there's it's somewhat analogous, right,
- 26:04Speaker 1: there's a group of Democrats who are tired of the shit, right,
- 26:07Speaker 1: and they're like, screw it, give me my own billionaire
- 26:09Speaker 1: and let me punch this bully in the house. And
- 26:12Speaker 1: Pritzker has been playing this role for quite some time.
- 26:14Speaker 1: And you know, I've been skeptical that the answer to
- 26:18Speaker 1: the Trump eras for Democrats to go find their own billionaire. Right.
- 26:21Speaker 1: This is why I've been a little skeptical of the
- 26:22Speaker 1: Mark Cuban idea, a little skeptical of the Pritzker idea.
- 26:26Speaker 1: But watching it in action and you seeing how much
- 26:30Speaker 1: money and how big these entities are. You know, it
- 26:34Speaker 1: took a rich guy named Teddy Roosevelt to take on
- 26:37Speaker 1: the big rich guys, right, it took a rich guy
- 26:40Speaker 1: in FDR to build the social safety net for the
- 26:43Speaker 1: working class. It was a rich guy that working class
- 26:47Speaker 1: America the last ten years has turned to or want
- 26:50Speaker 1: to be rich guy, depending on your point of view
- 26:51Speaker 1: of when Trump actually acquired actual wealth. But it doesn't matter.
- 26:55Speaker 1: Perceive Perception is reality in this case. And so I
- 27:02Speaker 1: know this, like you know, I always remind people I
- 27:04Speaker 1: cover politics as as it is, not as I wish
- 27:06Speaker 1: it were. I'm not sure this is a good long
- 27:08Speaker 1: term solution for where we're headed as a country. But
- 27:12Speaker 1: I also it's possible. This is a this is something,
- 27:16Speaker 1: this is something that has to be tried first before
- 27:19Speaker 1: the next thing gets tried, right, And if you you know,
- 27:21Speaker 1: I always like to put my shove in the shoes
- 27:23Speaker 1: of somebody fifty years from now looking back on this
- 27:26Speaker 1: era we're living through, and how will they see it,
- 27:28Speaker 1: what will it look like? And you know, you know,
- 27:34Speaker 1: I have a theory that we're we're going to We're
- 27:37Speaker 1: probably going to have two or three more one term
- 27:38Speaker 1: presidents before we have a president that's able to sort
- 27:42Speaker 1: of solidify the country enough to earn a second term.
- 27:45Speaker 1: And that's when you know, we'll have turned the page
- 27:47Speaker 1: on this era until we get there. So we've had
- 27:50Speaker 1: three in a row. You know, we didn't. We went
- 27:52Speaker 1: through the entire twentieth century without three one term presidents
- 27:54Speaker 1: in a row. So I kind of think we're you
- 27:58Speaker 1: got to go through these stages, right, and so you know,
- 28:01Speaker 1: you could see this right if if down the road
- 28:03Speaker 1: we get you know, the next Eisenhower becomes president, say
- 28:05Speaker 1: in twenty thirty six, but we have a one term
- 28:08Speaker 1: president in twenty eight, a one term president in thirty two,
- 28:11Speaker 1: et cetera. Like okay, what you know, what what will
- 28:13Speaker 1: the explanation be? And it will be something like, well,
- 28:17Speaker 1: you know, the frustrated Americans they kept they kept voting,
- 28:21Speaker 1: you know, they kept looking for something different and they
- 28:23Speaker 1: didn't like it, and they voted out. You know, the Democrats,
- 28:25Speaker 1: they tried the conciliator candidate in Biden and that didn't work.
- 28:29Speaker 1: Then they tried you know, if they go with the
- 28:33Speaker 1: A Pritzker, let's say, then it was oh, they tried
- 28:35Speaker 1: the fighter, the billionaire fighter to fight back and that
- 28:38Speaker 1: didn't work in the Culture War, and then you know
- 28:40Speaker 1: who knows, So you know it is it's possible. We're
- 28:45Speaker 1: just in a this is the next step, you know,
- 28:48Speaker 1: before you get to whatever the whatever the solution is,
- 28:52Speaker 1: or maybe this turns out to be the solution, or
- 28:53Speaker 1: maybe a leader sort of morphs into something bigger and
- 28:57Speaker 1: is able to rise above in a moment. You know. Well,
- 29:00Speaker 1: that's that's what we do. We find out sometimes after
- 29:04Speaker 1: we elect these presidents whether they're actually up to the job.
- 29:07Speaker 1: We never, let's be honest, we're never quite sure these
- 29:09Speaker 1: folks are up to the job until after they take office.
- 29:12Speaker 1: There's a lot of skepticism about Bill Clinton, and then
- 29:14Speaker 1: after a while you understood why he was there. Uh
- 29:17Speaker 1: did it with w did it with Obama? You know,
- 29:19Speaker 1: there's always a moment where these people fill the suit, right,
- 29:22Speaker 1: and you just sort of see it, you know. I
- 29:25Speaker 1: think Biden always struggled to fill the suit. I think Trump,
- 29:28Speaker 1: you know, is always acting. He's always playing a role,
- 29:32Speaker 1: so he struggles to fill the suit because it's never
- 29:35Speaker 1: a full it's never quite quite what he is. It's
- 29:39Speaker 1: always a performance of some sort. You just have to
- 29:43Speaker 1: figure out what that performance is at any given time.
- 29:47Speaker 1: So it's uh, I'm always careful. I don't want to
- 29:52Speaker 1: be definitive here. Right. We had one primary where the
- 29:56Speaker 1: candidate who was preaching love instead of a fighter one
- 30:00Speaker 1: in Texas. Now this one we got the fighter, the
- 30:03Speaker 1: F Trump candidate. Right. By the way, every time I
- 30:06Speaker 1: say F Trump, I'm channeling my old Chris Matthews. He'll
- 30:09Speaker 1: be saying, are you saying F troop? You know some
- 30:11Speaker 1: old TV show back in the sixties. So for some
- 30:13Speaker 1: of my older viewers and listeners, that was a shout
- 30:15Speaker 1: out for F troop. Now I'm not saying F troop
- 30:18Speaker 1: when I say the F Trump had. So you know,
- 30:22Speaker 1: two data points does not make a trend, but it's
- 30:25Speaker 1: an intriguing data point. It's something I'm not going to
- 30:29Speaker 1: dismiss about Pritzker. And I think that Pritzker's proven to
- 30:32Speaker 1: be politically savving his own state, so we should be
- 30:35Speaker 1: taking him seriously as a presidential candidate. I wouldn't put
- 30:37Speaker 1: him at the bottom of the top tier anymore. I'd
- 30:39Speaker 1: be putting him smack dab in the in the contender
- 30:41Speaker 1: section of this. As we go forward, all right, Like
- 30:47Speaker 1: I said, coming up my conversation with somebody who leads
- 30:51Speaker 1: one of these super packs that I'm talking about, and
- 30:53Speaker 1: we get into whether this is a healthy system and
- 30:56Speaker 1: what should be and Rad Carson, longtime Oklahoma Democrat, also
- 31:00Speaker 1: gives his prescription of how Democrats could to could improve
- 31:06Speaker 1: their brand in red states like Oklahoma and elsewhere. So
- 31:12Speaker 1: I think you'll find the conversation interesting, provocative and enlightening.
- 31:17Speaker 1: And with that, let's sneak in a break and when
- 31:19Speaker 1: we come back, my conversation with about AI influencer politics
- 31:27Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party with Brad Carson. This episode of
- 31:35Speaker 1: the Chuck Todcast is brought to you by Quints. A
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- 32:59Speaker 1: Quins slash Chuck, Ask Chuck. First question comes from Bill
- 33:06Speaker 1: in Boston and he writes, Hey, Chuck, I started listening
- 33:09Speaker 1: to your podcast after hearing you on Jim and Marjorie
- 33:11Speaker 1: Show and have not missed an episode since. Oh I'm
- 33:15Speaker 1: glad to hear that Jim and Marjorie are fantastic. They
- 33:17Speaker 1: have a terrific daily program on BPR. Up there, Boston
- 33:22Speaker 1: Public Radio, and they're two of my favorite people. I
- 33:28Speaker 1: just adore them and it is probably my favorite guest
- 33:32Speaker 1: appearance I make on anything I do. It's just a
- 33:36Speaker 1: total joy with them, So thank you for giving them
- 33:40Speaker 1: a shout out. You continue. I devour the commentaries as
- 33:44Speaker 1: soon as they drop and then save the interviews for
- 33:46Speaker 1: the weekend. So excellent. My niece has just graduated from
- 33:48Speaker 1: journalism school and is moving to DC to start her
- 33:50Speaker 1: career in the world of political journalism. I was thinking
- 33:52Speaker 1: of getting our membership at the National Press Club as
- 33:54Speaker 1: a graduation. Get is that still where the center of
- 33:56Speaker 1: gravity is for the DC press these days? Thanks Bill,
- 33:59Speaker 1: and Boston actually isn't a National Press Club? Is really
- 34:04Speaker 1: it's really a PR mechanism. Now more public relations firms
- 34:08Speaker 1: are members of the Press Club than actual journalists associations.
- 34:12Speaker 1: It's still an if you're an international journalist, the Press
- 34:15Speaker 1: Club is a helpful tool, but it does not play
- 34:19Speaker 1: the role it once did, and it's interesting I might suggest,
- 34:29Speaker 1: I know this sounds I might suggest just getting her
- 34:35Speaker 1: a subscription to like punch Bowl, right, and some one
- 34:39Speaker 1: of these insider newsletters that you really need to know,
- 34:44Speaker 1: you know, that can really help drive you know, on
- 34:47Speaker 1: Congress that's punch Bowl, and that's not a cheap publication,
- 34:50Speaker 1: but you know, the DC publication world right, whether it's
- 34:55Speaker 1: your subscription, and it really is punchable for Congress. You know,
- 35:01Speaker 1: this is what gets really expensive in the world of journalism,
- 35:04Speaker 1: is being able to keep track of everybody else's work,
- 35:06Speaker 1: whether it's the Punch Bowl, Wall Street Journal, Politico, Axios.
- 35:13Speaker 1: None of this stuff is free, and in many cases
- 35:16Speaker 1: it's exuberant, it's uber expensive. But I think back on
- 35:21Speaker 1: what I needed as subscription to my old stomping grounds,
- 35:24Speaker 1: the Hotline. You know, if you did punch Bowl, Wall
- 35:28Speaker 1: Street Journal, Politico in the Hotline, that's probably what a
- 35:32Speaker 1: membership to the National Press Club would cost. And I
- 35:36Speaker 1: would dare say those publications if your niece doesn't end
- 35:40Speaker 1: up working at one of them, and she may end up,
- 35:43Speaker 1: and yes, over time, if one of the not every
- 35:46Speaker 1: news organization, we'll spring for some of these subscriptions. So
- 35:52Speaker 1: anyway that I'm just thinking out loud, but that's probably
- 35:55Speaker 1: you know, where I would begin to sort of engrace,
- 35:59Speaker 1: you know, to have help somebody sort of get used
- 36:02Speaker 1: to the rhythms of this town, you know, from an
- 36:05Speaker 1: internal cultural sense, and that's where punch Bowl and Politico
- 36:08Speaker 1: Playbook in particular come come in. And then with this
- 36:11Speaker 1: particular White House axios in the Wall Street Journal, I
- 36:14Speaker 1: think I have the best access to the to the
- 36:17Speaker 1: west wing and have the probably the more consistent scoopages.
- 36:22Speaker 1: You know, this is no disrespect to the times in
- 36:24Speaker 1: the Post, but in this case, the times in the
- 36:28Speaker 1: Post are a bit cheaper, and one could argue she could,
- 36:32Speaker 1: she could, she could pay for those. Those other ones
- 36:36Speaker 1: are a little price here, So just a thought anyway.
- 36:38Speaker 1: I hope that helps, Bill, and congratulations and you know
- 36:42Speaker 1: I at some point we're going to be hiring interns
- 36:44Speaker 1: here at the Check Podcast, but we haven't fully fully
- 36:48Speaker 1: expanded there for now. Next up is Howard W. From
- 36:51Speaker 1: Los Angeles. Any rates, when the Declaration of Independence was signed,
- 36:54Speaker 1: were we a country or thirteen colonies? Didn't we actually
- 36:57Speaker 1: become a country when the articles of confederation right fight
- 37:00Speaker 1: in seventeen eighty one. That is a fair point, right,
- 37:04Speaker 1: We we declared our independence and then we didn't really
- 37:07Speaker 1: and we sort of formed an army, and you know,
- 37:10Speaker 1: there was a coalition and it was I guess you
- 37:14Speaker 1: could call it a a you know, a coalition of
- 37:17Speaker 1: the willing, but it's a it's man, why do you
- 37:24Speaker 1: want to mess up a good myth? Right? Are you
- 37:25Speaker 1: telling us we have to put off the two hundred
- 37:27Speaker 1: and fiftieth birthday for at least another six years? But
- 37:31Speaker 1: it's a and we certainly have only been a constitutional republic,
- 37:36Speaker 1: I guess is probably since since seventeen eighty one, so
- 37:40Speaker 1: the first time we attempted a constitution. But hey, that's
- 37:45Speaker 1: a that's a that's a that's a fair it's a
- 37:48Speaker 1: fair argument. So I had a little fun. You'll appreciate this.
- 37:53Speaker 1: So I decided to tap. I typed your question into
- 37:57Speaker 1: chat gpt to see what our AI would say, When
- 38:01Speaker 1: did America become an actual country? So here's the response
- 38:04Speaker 1: that chat ChiPT gave and he goes, well, that depends
- 38:07Speaker 1: on what you mean by become a country, because the
- 38:09Speaker 1: United States didn't flip a switch over nine. It emerged
- 38:11Speaker 1: in stages and each one answers your question a little differently.
- 38:14Speaker 1: So the declaration of independence, chat chipet caused a symbolic
- 38:19Speaker 1: birth the thirteen Colony simply declared themselves independent from Great Britain.
- 38:27Speaker 1: So there's that. Seventeen eighty three the Treaty of Paris,
- 38:31Speaker 1: So this is when the international world recognized America as
- 38:34Speaker 1: a country. The Treaty of Paris officially ended the war.
- 38:37Speaker 1: Britain had to formally recognize the United States as a
- 38:39Speaker 1: sovereign nation, and then other countries would acknowledge the existence
- 38:43Speaker 1: of the United States. So they argue that the legal
- 38:48Speaker 1: recognition recognized moment then would be seventeen eighty three, seventeen
- 38:53Speaker 1: eighty nine, our Constitution takes effect, so you know, and
- 38:57Speaker 1: you can then make your argument about the articles iteration
- 39:00Speaker 1: and that that being so, there you go, And arguably
- 39:09Speaker 1: we still have to wait until we may have to.
- 39:15Speaker 1: The two hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the Constitutional Republic
- 39:21Speaker 1: would be the next decade, and so our two hundred
- 39:24Speaker 1: and fiftieth celebration for the Constitution I assume we'll all
- 39:29Speaker 1: be centered around Philadelphia in twenty thirty nine. So make
- 39:35Speaker 1: your reservations now. All right, that was a fun little exercise,
- 39:39Speaker 1: and I love the provocative question. See, how are these
- 39:43Speaker 1: are my listeners? This is what I expect I expect
- 39:47Speaker 1: this kind of this kind of nuance in details, So
- 39:50Speaker 1: thank you. Next question comes from Brad Chuck. Greetings from
- 39:53Speaker 1: Grand Rapids in Michigan's third District, and thanks for the
- 39:57Speaker 1: great podcast. You often say citizens should reach out to
- 39:59Speaker 1: their representatives, But what if you're a member of Congress
- 40:01Speaker 1: like my representative Hillary Schulton and Michigan senators already share
- 40:05Speaker 1: your concerns. Is it still worthwhile to contact them just
- 40:08Speaker 1: to reinforce support, encourage them to push even harder in Washington?
- 40:11Speaker 1: How much influence do constituents really have when they're asking
- 40:14Speaker 1: leaders who already agree with them to do more. I
- 40:17Speaker 1: think it's more of the tactical. You know, it's interesting.
- 40:19Speaker 1: I am one of the fun pleasures I have in teaching.
- 40:23Speaker 1: As many of you know, I teach a class called
- 40:26Speaker 1: how Washington Works for USC and it's their DC program
- 40:31Speaker 1: USC University of Southern California, and I to be confused
- 40:33Speaker 1: with my friends in Columbia, South Carolina who believe the
- 40:36Speaker 1: University of South Carolina is the original USC as I
- 40:42Speaker 1: like to say to them, have a more successful program
- 40:45Speaker 1: and you can reclaim USC is yours. Sorry couldn't help myself,
- 40:51Speaker 1: but about half the class is interning on the hill.
- 40:55Speaker 1: And when you intern on the hill, what does that mean? Yeah,
- 40:57Speaker 1: answer the phones. But answering the phones in a congressional
- 41:00Speaker 1: office is fascinating, especially when you're a young intern, because
- 41:06Speaker 1: usually it's calls from constituents, not always, you know, sometimes
- 41:11Speaker 1: they're planned campaign sometimes they're genuine locals. But here's what
- 41:17Speaker 1: I can tell you I've learned from these conversations I've
- 41:21Speaker 1: had with these with with people that answer phones over
- 41:23Speaker 1: the years. It's all offices want to keep track. They
- 41:25Speaker 1: want to know what issues are coming up, what's being
- 41:29Speaker 1: called in it because a lot of times it is
- 41:30Speaker 1: an early warning system. All of a sudden, you get
- 41:32Speaker 1: some there might be some local thing that's happening that
- 41:35Speaker 1: the congressional office is getting a lot of calls on.
- 41:38Speaker 1: It actually is something that a local mayor ought to
- 41:40Speaker 1: deal with. Maybe it's something the mayor of Grand Rapids
- 41:42Speaker 1: has to deal with, and they're able to say, hey,
- 41:44Speaker 1: we're getting calls about this, are you aware of this? Right?
- 41:47Speaker 1: So it can be just sort of an early warning system, right,
- 41:52Speaker 1: But they but the members care and it's it's I
- 41:59Speaker 1: think there's more power in numbers, right, But you don't
- 42:02Speaker 1: want to look like you're manufacturing and you're reading from
- 42:04Speaker 1: a script. So the point is is that sometimes it's
- 42:08Speaker 1: not You may your representatives may support you generally, but
- 42:12Speaker 1: are they doing something specifically? You know, you might you
- 42:16Speaker 1: might want to say, how come you're not doing this?
- 42:19Speaker 1: You know, I know you share the same concerns I
- 42:21Speaker 1: do about X. So explain to me why you're not
- 42:25Speaker 1: doing why. You know. Maybe let's say you're you're skeptical
- 42:29Speaker 1: of this around war, Well, maybe you might want to
- 42:32Speaker 1: encourage them. Look, don't just vote symbolically, know against funding
- 42:36Speaker 1: this war. What are you going to do to actually
- 42:39Speaker 1: try to bring this to an end? You know, maybe
- 42:42Speaker 1: force an answer out of them, force a response out
- 42:45Speaker 1: of them. But I you know, or you can call
- 42:48Speaker 1: other you know, these these these members of Congress. You
- 42:58Speaker 1: won't for some of them, you won't be is impactful,
- 43:00Speaker 1: but they do log complaints that come in from constituents
- 43:05Speaker 1: that don't live in their district or state and just say, look,
- 43:08Speaker 1: I'm and you should be honest about it, and I'm
- 43:10Speaker 1: calling you. You know, my senator's already believe in this,
- 43:12Speaker 1: but I'm concerned, you know, and maybe find a way
- 43:15Speaker 1: to connect with that senator. I you know, I thought
- 43:17Speaker 1: Senator X really was worried about why so why aren't
- 43:20Speaker 1: they also standing up on this issue? But there's all
- 43:27Speaker 1: sorts of ways to I think, influence a senator that
- 43:32Speaker 1: you think already shares some of your values. Maybe it's
- 43:35Speaker 1: more in what are they doing about it? How are
- 43:37Speaker 1: they expressing themselves? You know, it's one thing to share
- 43:39Speaker 1: your concerns. It's another things to do some action. So
- 43:43Speaker 1: that'd be another way to look at it. Next question
- 43:47Speaker 1: comes from David and he writes, Chuck, I'm a twenty
- 43:48Speaker 1: nine year old living in California now, but previously a
- 43:51Speaker 1: federal worker in DC before being cut during last year's
- 43:53Speaker 1: doze terminations. You've often mentioned Mississippi as a state to watch,
- 43:56Speaker 1: even though most analysts don't see it as viable for Democrats.
- 43:58Speaker 1: What can we learn from the Sippy primaries past Tuesday
- 44:01Speaker 1: in terms of turnout, in enthusiasm, and do you see
- 44:03Speaker 1: the same potential for competitiveness there that we've seen in
- 44:06Speaker 1: southern races like Alabama in twenty seventeen, in Georgia in
- 44:08Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Well, look, I've had this Mississippi conversation with
- 44:12Speaker 1: quite a few people, and I'm trying to remember recently.
- 44:17Speaker 1: I feel like I can't remember if I did it
- 44:18Speaker 1: in this podcast or it was a Newsfair episode, but
- 44:22Speaker 1: when we talk about different states, or it may have been.
- 44:28Speaker 1: It may have been a conversation I had with when
- 44:34Speaker 1: I was moderating a panel up at Harvard in Jamie Harrison,
- 44:37Speaker 1: who was the former DNC chair and candidate for office
- 44:39Speaker 1: in South Carolina, and it was in this you know,
- 44:44Speaker 1: the whole point of pointing out of Mississippi, for one thing,
- 44:47Speaker 1: is is looking at what the electoral map could look
- 44:52Speaker 1: like in twenty thirty two. When we have reapportionment in
- 44:55Speaker 1: the electoral college, numbers shift again and the power continues
- 44:59Speaker 1: to grow in the sun Beat and in the South.
- 45:01Speaker 1: So Democrats have to make inroads in the sun Belt, right,
- 45:04Speaker 1: You've got to make inroads where the people live. Texas
- 45:06Speaker 1: and Florida are two obvious targets. They're big, they're huge,
- 45:08Speaker 1: and they're very difficult. Georgia is a success story. It's
- 45:13Speaker 1: an organizational success story. And the point is when you
- 45:16Speaker 1: look at the population in Mississippi and you look at
- 45:21Speaker 1: look at go look at those general election results, they're
- 45:23Speaker 1: always you know, Sydney Hyde Smith versus Mike Esipe in
- 45:27Speaker 1: twenty eighteen fifty four to forty six race, that's not
- 45:31Speaker 1: a blowout. That does not mean Mississippi is not competitive.
- 45:34Speaker 1: Tate Reeves and the Presley cousin was also somebody that
- 45:48Speaker 1: was also one of the closest governor's races in thirty
- 45:50Speaker 1: years or in the last twenty years. Excuse me, but
- 45:57Speaker 1: what you have is an under investment in the state
- 45:59Speaker 1: part and there's a there's an under voter, there's an
- 46:03Speaker 1: under there's basically a lot of unregistered African American voters
- 46:08Speaker 1: in Mississippi who've kind of given up on the system.
- 46:11Speaker 1: It was a similar phenomenon in Alabama, and you had
- 46:16Speaker 1: Doug Jones will tell you it was black women in
- 46:18Speaker 1: particular that you know, helped organize for his campaign and
- 46:21Speaker 1: that upset over Roy Moore. Now, there's nothing like having
- 46:25Speaker 1: an opponent who's an accused pedophile in order to assist
- 46:28Speaker 1: you in a in a very deeply religious state like Alabama.
- 46:32Speaker 1: And I don't think we should we should overlook that
- 46:36Speaker 1: factoid on that one success in Alabama. But Mississippi there's
- 46:40Speaker 1: more consistent. You see it, right, there's a lower ceiling
- 46:44Speaker 1: for Republicans than there is in an Alabama or but
- 46:50Speaker 1: it's it's not a one cycle investment, right, And I
- 46:54Speaker 1: think the problem, the difference between the Democrats and the
- 46:56Speaker 1: Republicans in my adult lifetime is that Republicans have always
- 47:01Speaker 1: taken a longer view in trying to flip a state
- 47:04Speaker 1: and Democrats are always looking for a shortcut, and they've
- 47:08Speaker 1: not take that longer. One of the few exceptions to
- 47:10Speaker 1: the longer views has been Arizona in Georgia, and now
- 47:14Speaker 1: that is paid necessary dividends, right, it's kept them in
- 47:17Speaker 1: the game. Without Georgie and Arizona, the downfall of the
- 47:20Speaker 1: Midwestern swing states and of Florida and Ohio in particular
- 47:25Speaker 1: would be catastrophic for the party. But it's not because
- 47:28Speaker 1: of a concerted twenty year effort to essentially get competitive
- 47:33Speaker 1: in Georgia and Arizona. And you had look the losing
- 47:37Speaker 1: Stacey Abrams campaigns did a lot, made a lot of
- 47:41Speaker 1: progress for george Democrats, and that's what you need. You
- 47:45Speaker 1: need somebody that sort of you know, makes progress in
- 47:51Speaker 1: losing and sticks to it. And in Mississippi you've had
- 47:55Speaker 1: too many examples of well funded singular campaign that have
- 48:00Speaker 1: never sort of stayed engaged after they've lost, and until
- 48:05Speaker 1: you do, that's that's the moment. But it's if you
- 48:08Speaker 1: look at the population numbers and you look at the
- 48:10Speaker 1: voter registration numbers, that's why you see. If you ever
- 48:14Speaker 1: could maximize African American voter registration in Mississippi, you suddenly
- 48:18Speaker 1: are in a different place competitively in that day. Next
- 48:32Speaker 1: question comes from JR. JR. Rights. Hey, second time asker,
- 48:36Speaker 1: Thanks again for taking questions. Virginia's led Governor Spamberger signature
- 48:39Speaker 1: bringing the electoral vote count for it's triggering up to
- 48:42Speaker 1: two twenty two, still a ways off from the required
- 48:43Speaker 1: two to seventy. But what do you think the odds
- 48:45Speaker 1: are that the MPV will gain momentum and get the
- 48:47Speaker 1: requisite numbers to go into effect. Do you think Trump's
- 48:49Speaker 1: popular vote win in twenty twenty four may jostle free
- 48:51Speaker 1: some reticent red states to join. Thanks interesting in your
- 48:54Speaker 1: thoughts on the MPV compact as a whole as well. Well. Look,
- 48:57Speaker 1: I've i dug into the compact quite a bit about
- 49:00Speaker 1: fifteen or twenty years ago when it first started up.
- 49:02Speaker 1: The guy who founded the university of Phoenix was sort
- 49:05Speaker 1: of the initial brainchild of this, by the way, for
- 49:07Speaker 1: what it's worth, and this goes back to two thousand
- 49:10Speaker 1: and three, two thousand and four, two thousand and five,
- 49:12Speaker 1: memory serves, I have this vision. I remember packing my
- 49:16Speaker 1: office at the Hotline to move to NBC, and I
- 49:18Speaker 1: remember this guy's the voter Compact pamphlet wasn't a pamphlet.
- 49:23Speaker 1: It was this massive if you remember the remember the
- 49:26Speaker 1: old chain Kinkos, It was like a Kinko's put together
- 49:31Speaker 1: book if you will, and I you know, just to
- 49:37Speaker 1: if people are going to wonder how this works. So
- 49:39Speaker 1: the idea is that states, would you know, which is
- 49:42Speaker 1: do the thanks to the commerce clause reveralily where states
- 49:45Speaker 1: will agree that if if there are that the minute
- 49:50Speaker 1: there's enough states that add up to two hundred and
- 49:53Speaker 1: seventy electoral votes, then the states agree that their lectoral
- 49:59Speaker 1: votes will go to the winner of the popular vote.
- 50:06Speaker 1: But it doesn't trigger until there are enough states that
- 50:09Speaker 1: add up to two hundred and seventy electoral votes. And
- 50:14Speaker 1: so it is, as you noted, we're up to two
- 50:17Speaker 1: twenty two, so there's still there's still forty eight electoral
- 50:21Speaker 1: votes away. I haven't seen the latest list of states,
- 50:25Speaker 1: but I think a lot of the big states haven't
- 50:27Speaker 1: done it yet, if I'm not mistaken, So I'm a
- 50:39Speaker 1: skeptic that it will be accepted by the public. I
- 50:44Speaker 1: think you would have. I mean, look at all of
- 50:46Speaker 1: the rage you see among Nebraska Republicans Loan the loan
- 50:51Speaker 1: electoral vote that continues to nag at Republicans right with
- 50:59Speaker 1: oma sort of almost no consistently voting voting against the
- 51:05Speaker 1: state's interest, and the calls and demands for change, And
- 51:12Speaker 1: the minute this compact has agreed to, the second estate
- 51:17Speaker 1: feels as if their votes cost their guy an election,
- 51:20Speaker 1: then there's going to be right. So I'm skeptical that
- 51:23Speaker 1: this will ever even when it hits the requisite number,
- 51:26Speaker 1: that it will ever be implemented. That essentially, this is
- 51:31Speaker 1: an easy thing to say you're willing to do before
- 51:33Speaker 1: you get to the number itself. Now on once you
- 51:36Speaker 1: catch the once you're the dog that catches the proverbial car,
- 51:40Speaker 1: what actually happens here? What do you plan to do
- 51:42Speaker 1: with this? You know? I I'm I think we need
- 51:51Speaker 1: a constitutional amendment to change this if you want to
- 51:53Speaker 1: change it. My work around these days is doubling the
- 51:57Speaker 1: size of the house. If you did that, then you
- 51:59Speaker 1: would write and the electoral college would follow the popular
- 52:03Speaker 1: vote in ninety eight percent of the circumstances, rather than
- 52:06Speaker 1: in the situation we're in now, which is only about
- 52:08Speaker 1: something like eighty five to ninety percent of the time,
- 52:11Speaker 1: will the popular vote in the in the electoral vote
- 52:15Speaker 1: be the same winner, and that that GAP's a big deal.
- 52:20Speaker 1: That's a big you know, as I like to say,
- 52:23Speaker 1: you know, would you get on a plane that had
- 52:26Speaker 1: a ninety percent chance of landing safely? Would you get
- 52:31Speaker 1: on a plane that had a ninety nine percent chance
- 52:33Speaker 1: of landing safely? Right? You do that all the time.
- 52:37Speaker 1: Nothing's one hundred percent, But once you hear that it's
- 52:40Speaker 1: ninety how about eighty five? Right? Right? Then it's suddenly
- 52:44Speaker 1: you're like, oh, I know, plenty of one in fifteen
- 52:46Speaker 1: you know, I'm fifteen percent chance things happen. There's a
- 52:49Speaker 1: ten percent chance of something happened. And wait a minute,
- 52:51Speaker 1: that's that that could actually happen. So you know, I'm
- 52:58Speaker 1: I'm so, I'm I'm skeptical that this would ever successfully
- 53:03Speaker 1: be implemented because I think there's states that have agreed
- 53:06Speaker 1: to do it. You'll see, especially since we've become so
- 53:08Speaker 1: one party. I mean, look at a state like Virginia
- 53:11Speaker 1: suddenly as a one party controlled state. It's still kind
- 53:15Speaker 1: of a I would argue, it's a fifty five to
- 53:16Speaker 1: forty five dem lean overall, right, but it behaves like
- 53:20Speaker 1: it's an eighty twenty state these days with its legislature
- 53:24Speaker 1: and its democratic governance. Right, It's just like Mississippi's really
- 53:27Speaker 1: like a fifty five to forty five state, but it
- 53:28Speaker 1: behaves in governance if it's an eighty twenty Republican state.
- 53:33Speaker 1: And so that's where I you know, So I'm I needed,
- 53:38Speaker 1: like I said, I needed a better analysis of how
- 53:40Speaker 1: many which states in there. But I just have a
- 53:42Speaker 1: feeling a bunch of them will chicken out when this starts,
- 53:45Speaker 1: and just when it looks like they're getting to somebody,
- 53:47Speaker 1: somebody will, you know, it'll be it'll be like Lucy
- 53:51Speaker 1: in the football. You know, she'll pull it away. Some
- 53:53Speaker 1: state will withdraw from the compact, and all of a
- 53:55Speaker 1: sudden they're short again. So you know that it's my guess,
- 54:00Speaker 1: And again I go back to the the easiest way
- 54:04Speaker 1: to fix this is just expanding the House, then you
- 54:08Speaker 1: don't even need a constitutional amendment after that a constitutional amendment.
- 54:11Speaker 1: But I do think you're not going to be able
- 54:16Speaker 1: to get the constitutional amendment until you convince both parties
- 54:20Speaker 1: that this will be helpful to that. And I think
- 54:23Speaker 1: repealing the electoral college won't get you there, but expanding
- 54:27Speaker 1: the House in theory benefits. You can make a case
- 54:30Speaker 1: that it can strengthen both parties depending on how you
- 54:34Speaker 1: look at it. You know, shouldn't you have more voting
- 54:37Speaker 1: power in Congress than Wyoming has? Right? Shouldn't you have
- 54:40Speaker 1: more voting power in Congress than Delaware has? Right? You
- 54:43Speaker 1: can make that case to a Republican state or a
- 54:44Speaker 1: democratic state. So that's why I sort of lean more
- 54:50Speaker 1: in that territory. But thanks for asking about that. The
- 54:54Speaker 1: MPV is always I got into it until I didn't.
- 54:59Speaker 1: Next question comes from Kenny from Massapequa. Thank you for
- 55:03Speaker 1: letting me say massive pequod approve that I can say it. Hey, Chuck,
- 55:05Speaker 1: I share your dad's love of coin collecting, and while
- 55:07Speaker 1: the bi centennial coins may not be worth much more
- 55:10Speaker 1: than face value, sometimes the memories attached to them are priceless.
- 55:13Speaker 1: My wife and I also have a question, what's the
- 55:15Speaker 1: deal with daylight saving time? With Senator Rubio no longer
- 55:18Speaker 1: championing the issue in the Senate, is there anyone likely
- 55:20Speaker 1: to take up the push to either keep it permanent
- 55:22Speaker 1: or in the clock changes together twice a year of
- 55:24Speaker 1: the timeship disrupts sleep, commuting, and families. So is there
- 55:27Speaker 1: any real chance Congress funally fixes it? Kenny from Massapequa Kenny,
- 55:30Speaker 1: I hope you heard my time Machine segment earlier this
- 55:33Speaker 1: week on this very issue, the initial creation of time zones,
- 55:38Speaker 1: daylight saving and how often we've the problem is there
- 55:42Speaker 1: is no solution because the solution for you becomes a
- 55:46Speaker 1: problem for somebody else. And I went through three different
- 55:50Speaker 1: periods of time where we had sort of permanent versions
- 55:53Speaker 1: of you know, temporary permanent versions of our time and
- 55:57Speaker 1: the big the most recent attempt that we did this
- 55:59Speaker 1: in seventy four to conserve energy during the energy crisis,
- 56:01Speaker 1: where a year long daylight saving time is you basically
- 56:04Speaker 1: had a hope. You know, there's a bunch of we
- 56:07Speaker 1: had actual accidents, Kids were killed at bus stops because
- 56:13Speaker 1: of traffic accidents before the sun came up, So you know,
- 56:18Speaker 1: I think this is one of those cases where. And
- 56:21Speaker 1: this is why I enjoyed that time machine. You know,
- 56:23Speaker 1: before the Railroad's you know, every town noon was slightly
- 56:28Speaker 1: different and everybody used the sun to decide while it's
- 56:31Speaker 1: noon in Massapequa, which means it's eleven fifty nine some
- 56:35Speaker 1: in the next town over, and it's eleven fifty eight
- 56:37Speaker 1: two towns from there. Right. So anyway, I encourage you
- 56:41Speaker 1: go check my last time Machine episode from the Monday episode.
- 56:47Speaker 1: I'd like to think that after you listen to that,
- 56:50Speaker 1: you'll be like, oh, this is why it'll never change,
- 56:54Speaker 1: because it's too complicated. There's no good answer because every
- 57:00Speaker 1: every you know, now, when we were in a grarian economy,
- 57:04Speaker 1: we just adjust it, you know. When living in this
- 57:07Speaker 1: fixed time zone, this is going to be this is
- 57:09Speaker 1: going to be the challenge here. And I think everybody
- 57:14Speaker 1: has different interests, right if you're you know, I remember
- 57:18Speaker 1: as a little kid, I couldn't wait for daylight saving time,
- 57:20Speaker 1: and the older I've gotten, I resent daylight saving time, right,
- 57:23Speaker 1: So I think that's another issue here, is that there's
- 57:27Speaker 1: just not a there's no clean there's no clean answer,
- 57:32Speaker 1: and in some ways, going through the motions of trying
- 57:35Speaker 1: to figure out how we took control of time as
- 57:37Speaker 1: it is as a country and as a government. I
- 57:41Speaker 1: now feel I feel satisfied with my unsat with this unsatisfactory,
- 57:49Speaker 1: uncomfortable way that we've done this. Now, I do wish
- 57:52Speaker 1: we would at least, you know, we keep we keep
- 57:56Speaker 1: moving when we do daylight saving time more than the
- 57:58Speaker 1: rest of the world does. I wish we would synchronize
- 58:00Speaker 1: a little bit better with other countries so that it went,
- 58:03Speaker 1: all right, we're all going to move our we're all
- 58:06Speaker 1: going to move up an hour early here, but we
- 58:08Speaker 1: keep doing the mission creep and I think it also
- 58:14Speaker 1: kind of messes things up there. All right, take one
- 58:16Speaker 1: more question. No, Actually, I got to end it there.
- 58:20Speaker 1: I'm going to wrap things up here. Though. It is
- 58:23Speaker 1: the best weekend of one of the best sports weekends
- 58:26Speaker 1: of the year. It's the first and second round of
- 58:28Speaker 1: the NCAA Tournament. I will tell you I'm such an
- 58:31Speaker 1: addict about the NCAA Tournament that I instituted no hotline
- 58:34Speaker 1: Fridays for in celebration of the NCAA Tournament. We would
- 58:39Speaker 1: literally put everybody we stop. We made Friday a holiday.
- 58:44Speaker 1: We published right before noon the twelve fifteen tip off
- 58:48Speaker 1: on Thursday and everybody scattered. It was one of my
- 58:52Speaker 1: prouder managerial decisions that I made. And that's how much
- 58:58Speaker 1: I love the NCAA tournament. I have a couple of
- 59:03Speaker 1: fun pools that I do want my favorite, and I've
- 59:05Speaker 1: been doing it with a group of friends probably almost
- 59:08Speaker 1: thirty years now, where there's eight of us and we
- 59:11Speaker 1: do a draft. You know, we all throw two hundred
- 59:14Speaker 1: bucks in and we do a draft, and we'd do
- 59:15Speaker 1: eight teams and randomized pick. So then you go through
- 59:19Speaker 1: and you know you you basically have. So I thought
- 59:22Speaker 1: i'd have some fun and share with you quickly what
- 59:25Speaker 1: those what those picks are. It is so I and
- 59:33Speaker 1: the draft, I had the fourth pick, so I got Florida.
- 59:36Speaker 1: They were the remaining number one seed, and I came
- 59:39Speaker 1: really close to drafting Houston, but I didn't want to
- 59:42Speaker 1: leave a one seed on board, said Florida. And then
- 59:44Speaker 1: when it came back to me in the Snake draft,
- 59:46Speaker 1: I got Arkansas. Then I have Wisconsin, Miami, Saint Louis,
- 59:50Speaker 1: South Florida, Wright State, and Howard you get for every
- 59:55Speaker 1: win your team gets, you you get and everybody throws
- 59:59Speaker 1: a pile of money into the pool. So you know,
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: there have been years where people have gotten two Final
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: four teams with their team, and there are years they
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: are limited after the first weekend. Sometimes it's a bit random,
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: but it's one of my favorite pools that I do.
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: But like, you end up with teams you don't necessarily
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: want to root for, Like I'm like, really Florida, but
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: and I wasn't gonna leave them on the board. I
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: don't enjoy rooting for them, but at least now if
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: they win, I might win something. But I do. I
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: am happy, Like I went out of my way to
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: draft Miami, and I went out of my way to
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: draft Saint Louis An A ten team for Chocolate up
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: GW SO. But my in case you're wondering the final
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: four that I read to Tony Kornheiser, my participation in
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: their bracket challenge Arizona Duke Houston, and I have Houston
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: beating Florida there in Arizona, I have Houston winning the
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: whole thing over I think I've Houston beating Michigan in
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: the final game. I believe that's what I ended up doing.
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: So and if you're wondering what my first early round
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: upsets are. I will say the only twelve seeds that
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: intrigued me Akron Akron is one that I put in
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: my pool to go a couple of rounds. I want
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: to believe that one of the eleven seeds will do
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: a little something for me. That's South Florida. I have
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: them going around or too on that front. But mostly
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: I think this is going to be chalky, chalky, chalky chalky,
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: lots of ones and twos in the Elite eight, with
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: maybe only Saint John's blowing up that party and being
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: the highest seed remaining in come the Elite eight. I
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: guess is the johnnies at five. If anybody over a
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: five seed gets to the Elite eight, my guess is
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: that it would be boy I struggle. You know two
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: A month ago, I might have said Saint Louis, I
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: don't buy it now. And a month ago I might
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: have said Miami, but I don't think we're deep enough
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: to make that type of run. But I like Miami's path.
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: I don't hate Miami's path. I think they can knock
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: Purdue off in the second round, and obviously they pull
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: that off, then hey, then anything is possible. So there
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: you go. Enjoy the weekend, enjoy college basketball. It's a
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: good way to distract yourself from the craziness that is
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: the world and this country in politics. Thanks for listening,
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: and I'll see them on that