Latest / The Smart Cookies podcast / Flukes, Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters with Brian Klaas
Transcript
- 0:00Brian Klaas is an associate professor in global politics at University College London and
- 0:14a contributing writer for the Atlantic magazine.
- 0:18He's also the author of Corruptible, Who Gets Power and How It Changes Us and the very latest
- 0:24Fluke, Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters, which is being released, I believe,
- 0:31January 23rd, in which I had the pleasure of reading over the past couple of days.
- 0:38Brian, welcome.
- 0:39Thanks for having me on the show.
- 0:41I'll say this about the book.
- 0:44It's extremely rare to read something that manages to shake the ground on which you're
- 0:48standing to make you feel that the way you see the world is being challenged.
- 0:55It's almost like a little slap across the face or something.
- 0:58I got to be honest, at times it can make for a discomforting read a little bit.
- 1:04I remember going like, no way or stop it, you know, physically arguing with the book,
- 1:10like as if it was a person standing there challenging me with very provocative ideas.
- 1:16And that's probably the ultimate compliment a nonfiction book can receive because it's
- 1:21so rare.
- 1:22I remember I had a similar reaction when I was reading Being You by the famous consciousness
- 1:27researcher Anil Seth, who I was also lucky enough to host on the show.
- 1:32I know I'm going to remember the feeling of reading it three years from now.
- 1:38It was the same with Fluke.
- 1:39It did the same thing to me.
- 1:41Anyway, I just wanted to share my very impression.
- 1:43That is exceptionally kind of praise.
- 1:45And that's exactly what I was hoping would happen when I wrote this.
- 1:51Basically I started writing the book because I thought there's a lot of stuff about the
- 1:54conventional worldview that is wrong, which is an incredibly arrogant and ambitious thing
- 1:59to think that you can write a book that challenges how people think about themselves and how
- 2:03the world works.
- 2:04But lo and behold, that's what I've tried to do.
- 2:06So I appreciate your kind reaction to it.
- 2:08It's very nice of you to say.
- 2:10Are you ready for the reaction of some people who are probably going to get a tiny bit upset?
- 2:15Yeah.
- 2:16I mean, I wrote the book in a way where I hope that I'm respectful of other people's
- 2:22ideas because one of the things that a major theme in Fluke, as you know, is uncertainty.
- 2:28There's lots of stuff we don't know.
- 2:30So to write a book about uncertainty with extreme certainty about how the world works
- 2:36is a mistake.
- 2:37And so I was trying to say, there's bits where, for example, I'm not religious.
- 2:41I don't believe in God.
- 2:42But when I talk about religion in the book, I say, look, there's lots of people who do
- 2:45believe in this.
- 2:47And so this is not part of the terrain of the book.
- 2:49So I'm going to leave it to the side rather than sort of being critical of people who
- 2:53have different viewpoints on religion and faith and so on.
- 2:56So that was the kind of thing where I've gotten some early feedback from people who've had
- 3:01advanced copies and so on.
- 3:03And one person said something very nice, which said, I am religious.
- 3:06And I thought that this book engaged with these ideas in a very respectful way.
- 3:11So I'm also going to piss off a lot of social scientists because there's a book, there's
- 3:15a chapter, as you know, that's called The Emperor's New Equations, which is deliberately
- 3:20provocative about some of the flaws of social research.
- 3:24And so I don't think I'm going to be a hit at many political science conferences in the
- 3:28future.
- 3:29But such is the way of writing a book like this is you want to challenge people.
- 3:33And if you don't, then you're just sort of confirming people's existing beliefs.
- 3:37And they've wasted however many hours reading what you wrote.
- 3:40And so the rights for conferences are going to get rescinded at the last minute.
- 3:45All right.
- 3:46So the central premise of the book is this.
- 3:49The storybook version of the ordered world we tell ourselves we live in is wrong.
- 3:55The world we actually inhabit, our societies and we ourselves are much more the result
- 4:00of and governed by chaos, chance events and complete randomness.
- 4:06In short, by flukes.
- 4:07Would that be accurate?
- 4:08Yeah, exactly.
- 4:10And I think the reason why that is, is because the world is extremely interconnected.
- 4:15So the sort of storybook reality worldview that you describe is not just that the world
- 4:20is extremely ordered and progresses according to sort of logical choices and decisions that
- 4:24people make, but also that we're in control of it.
- 4:27So in addition to the arbitrary and the accidental playing a much bigger role, the sort of underlying
- 4:31reason for that is because every action that we take has ramifications that are often invisible
- 4:37to us, but that affect the lives of others and the trajectories of our society.
- 4:41So that's the sort of idea where you always look for this neat story, which our brains,
- 4:45I mean, Anil Seth's work would touch on this as well, but like where our brains are pattern
- 4:50processing machines, basically.
- 4:52And so we find ordered, rational, reasonable explanations for things when in fact there's
- 4:57a lot of messiness in the rest of the world.
- 5:01And this is where I take issue with what some people, very often there's a whole realm of
- 5:06thought that says separate the signal from the noise.
- 5:09And I hate that phrase because it suggests that the noise is unimportant.
- 5:12And what Fluke is trying to say is like actually a lot of stuff that we care about happens
- 5:16in the noise, the unexpected, the chance, the contingent and so on.
- 5:22If we take a step back and clear something basic first, what do you mean by a fluke?
- 5:29Great question.
- 5:30So what I'm talking about are sort of things that are unexpected, driven by apparent randomness
- 5:35and that create contingency.
- 5:38Now I'm going to explain that last word contingency because honestly, if I could title the book
- 5:42anything without regard for sales or whether someone would pick it up, I would have probably
- 5:46called it either contingency or why things happen, right?
- 5:50Which is neither of those titles is going to be as exciting as Fluke.
- 5:53So the publisher wins out on that one.
- 5:56But contingency is basically, it's imagining like a fork in the road.
- 5:59Now we think about these things as forks in our lives, for example, where we make deliberate
- 6:05choices.
- 6:06The point I'm making is that the path we're on is forking constantly.
- 6:10And so we're constantly in contingent moments where turning left rather than right is changing
- 6:15your life, even though you're unaware of what the alternative could have been.
- 6:18And that's true for society as well.
- 6:20Now the easiest way to explain contingency is with the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs,
- 6:25right?
- 6:26I put it in the first chapter of the book because it's a very obvious example of this
- 6:28where if the asteroid had been delayed somehow by some unseen force, by like three seconds,
- 6:34it would have missed Earth and dinosaurs wouldn't have probably died out.
- 6:38Mammals probably wouldn't have risen in the same way and humans wouldn't exist.
- 6:41So all of our existence, all human history, is derived from this little accident in the
- 6:47cosmos.
- 6:48And if it hadn't happened, we wouldn't be here.
- 6:50So that's contingency.
- 6:52And the idea is that it's constant, right?
- 6:54This is something that's constantly happening.
- 6:56So a fluke is something where you get to this contingent moment and something arbitrary
- 7:02happens and it diverts your trajectory basically.
- 7:06And what's convergence?
- 7:07If we're sticking to big words for a moment.
- 7:11Yes, indeed.
- 7:12And this is the kind of stuff where you're beholden to the terminology a little bit.
- 7:16But contingency and convergence, I think, are really useful ways of thinking about life.
- 7:19And I stole these terms from evolutionary biology and then tried to apply them to humans.
- 7:24So contingency is the dinosaurs, as I say.
- 7:26Convergence is the opposite, right?
- 7:27It's the order progression of things.
- 7:29And the example I use in the book is an astonishing one, which is if you took the eye of an octopus
- 7:35and you took the eye of a human and you looked at both of them, they're actually extremely
- 7:39alike, which is bizarre because there's been about 400 plus million years of evolutionary
- 7:45divergence between those two branches of the species tree, right?
- 7:49We're on totally different tracks.
- 7:51We're very unrelated to them.
- 7:53And yet we have basically the same eye.
- 7:54And the reason for that is because there is order produced by the fact that there's pressures
- 7:59on things that work, right?
- 8:02And when things work, they survive.
- 8:04So the eye is very, very effective at providing a way to navigate the world.
- 8:08So it's evolved twice in these two very different lineages.
- 8:12And the same is true of flight, which has evolved four different times and so on.
- 8:15So convergence, if you apply it to humans, is to say, OK, let's imagine you hit your
- 8:20snooze button on Tuesday morning.
- 8:23If your life unfolds basically the same way, then that would be a convergent event.
- 8:27If your life is radically changed by the snooze button, then that would be a contingent event
- 8:32because everything hinged on that one choice.
- 8:35So what I'm trying to do is take this sort of world of evolutionary biology in that sense
- 8:39and say, how would we think about this in human society and in individual life stories?
- 8:44And I think it's actually a very useful framework that all of us understand when we think about
- 8:48our own lives.
- 8:49But when we apply it to how did our societies become democracies, for example, all of us
- 8:53all of it goes out the window and we just tell a very neat and tidy, cleaned up story
- 8:57where the contingency is written out.
- 9:01In the book, you keep emphasizing and you reference that at the beginning of our conversation
- 9:05as well.
- 9:06The fact that we live in a mind bogglingly interconnected world.
- 9:10Every little thing we do, the way we do it, every thought that enters our minds will have
- 9:15an effect on the world, even if we can't see it, like you just said, and in turn on other
- 9:19people as well.
- 9:20Yet we have constructed a society with an exactly opposite idea.
- 9:27We are individuals who can supposedly, the story goes with enough hard work and talent,
- 9:32achieve everything we possibly set our minds on.
- 9:35And we can do all of that pretty much alone.
- 9:38The idea of the self-made man or self-made woman is the engine that drives our society.
- 9:46Why?
- 9:47Yeah, it's a great question.
- 9:49So this is where I was really struggling when I was thinking about these ideas, because
- 9:53I was thinking this is so at odds with what most people think about the way the world
- 9:58works.
- 9:59We're sold in Western modernity, and this is very unique to Western modernity, this
- 10:03idea of sort of control and individualism.
- 10:07So a lot of self-help books, for example, if you take any self-help book off the shelf,
- 10:13it basically tells you that it's your fault that you're unhappy or poor.
- 10:18Because they don't put it in those terms, right?
- 10:22But that's the implication when they say, if only you did these things, you would be
- 10:25rich and happy.
- 10:26It's like, okay, well, then why doesn't everyone do those things?
- 10:29Because obviously, if it worked 100% of the time, then we'd all be rich and happy.
- 10:33Of course, that doesn't work.
- 10:35And I think it's because people want to have a solution to their problems that puts them
- 10:40fully in control.
- 10:41Now, I don't believe that we're totally out of control, right?
- 10:44I use this phrase, and it's something that comes from the complexity science literature,
- 10:49but where you say, we control nothing, but we influence everything.
- 10:53And I think it's a much more useful way of thinking about your life.
- 10:55It doesn't mean you should stop striving, that you don't have control.
- 10:58It means that, and I think this is a beautiful truth, is that everything you do is important
- 11:05in some way.
- 11:06And the last third of the subtitle is why everything we do matters.
- 11:12And I struggled with deciding on that term because I was like, oh, people are going to
- 11:15think this is some flippant or cute phrase.
- 11:17I mean it quite literally.
- 11:19I mean it exactly as what it says.
- 11:21I do not think there's anything, any word, any action we do that has no effect.
- 11:26And that's because I think the world is so interconnected and our brains are so constantly
- 11:30changing from how we interact with the world that saying one word rather than another changes
- 11:35us or turning left rather than right out of a shop means that you'll meet different
- 11:41people in the rest of your life potentially because you'll bump into someone and that
- 11:46person will be affected.
- 11:48There's this endless interplay that we're totally blind to because we can't see the
- 11:51alternative path.
- 11:53And so when you start thinking that way, it becomes really obvious that the sort of myth
- 11:59of control and self-determination that is part of the individualist Western worldview
- 12:03is just like as a factual matter, incorrect.
- 12:08And the way I put this in the opening chapter of the book, you've read this, but it's
- 12:11the way I explain it to people that I think is actually quite intuitive is everybody I
- 12:17talk to accepts on its face the idea that if you travel back in time and tweak some
- 12:22small detail about the past, 10,000 years ago or something like that, that you might
- 12:26accidentally delete yourself from the future.
- 12:30And the problem is that historical causality operates the same way whether it's past, present,
- 12:34or future.
- 12:35So if that's true about the past, it's definitely true about the present.
- 12:38And that means that every single thing that we do in the present is shaping our future.
- 12:42So I think one of the two things has to give, right?
- 12:45Either the idea about how time travel operates is wrong, which I don't believe, but that
- 12:49could be one possibility, or the logic is correct.
- 12:53And that means that every action we take in our daily lives actually has unforeseen consequences
- 12:57that may affect our futures and the lives of other people around us.
- 13:02Let's talk about the related idea of what you call the myth of a secret genius.
- 13:08In our achievement society, capitalist world, we automatically assume that the richest people,
- 13:14folks like Elon Musk, are a bunch of secret geniuses, and as such, they deserve all their
- 13:18wealth and the power it brings them.
- 13:21Even more, it usually makes them impervious to any criticism.
- 13:25For example, if we stick with Elon Musk, because he's in the news yet again, he keeps coming
- 13:31out with these insanely dumb statements that are actively hurting his endeavors, as all
- 13:39advertisers are now running away from X or Twitter.
- 13:42And yet a lot of people are still convinced that he's just playing some sort of 4D chess
- 13:48and that we regular idiots just don't understand his grand strategy.
- 13:54However, as you're showing the book again, we have it a bit backwards.
- 14:00Could you break down the almost mathematical fact that the richest people are not necessarily
- 14:05the most gifted ones?
- 14:07Yeah, so I think there's a few things, some of which I didn't go into the book that I'll
- 14:12mention when it's talking about whether someone deserves their success.
- 14:16The first point is a relatively obvious one, which is I think about any successes I've
- 14:21had in life, and I didn't get to choose my brain, I didn't get to choose my parents,
- 14:26I didn't get to choose where I was born or my upbringing, all those things, which are
- 14:30huge factors.
- 14:31I mean, some of the largest factors in people's success are totally unchosen.
- 14:35So yeah, okay, I worked hard, but why did I work hard?
- 14:38Well, I don't know.
- 14:39It wasn't like I made a conscious decision as a seven-year-old to be good at school.
- 14:43So the way we talk about success, I think, is already backwards in the first place.
- 14:49The second thing, the myth of the secret genius idea, it draws from some research that I think
- 14:53is really important, that was a collaboration of physicists and economists, complex systems
- 15:00researchers along with an economist.
- 15:03And what they were basically looking at was like, let's just make a fake world where we
- 15:07have a few crude variables, but we also are trying to chart what creates wealth.
- 15:13But in our world, we're going to assume that every so often there's an intervention that
- 15:17randomly helps or hurts someone, and they're going to call it luck or misfortune.
- 15:23And the idea, of course, is that luck by its very nature is random.
- 15:26So it's going to strike like lightning every so often.
- 15:28Now, the insight they have, which once you hear it is really obvious, but we never really
- 15:32discuss this as a society, is they say, look, if you've got 8 billion people in the world,
- 15:37there's going to be a sort of standard distribution of talent.
- 15:40In other words, there's going to be some extremely talented people, but that's going to be a
- 15:43small number.
- 15:44There's going to be some extremely untalented people, again, a relatively small number.
- 15:48And most of us are going to be clustered closer to the middle, like a bell curve, right?
- 15:52And this is true.
- 15:53I mean, when you chart abilities among humans, this is definitely true.
- 15:57Now, wealth is not normally distributed, right?
- 16:01So if you think about height, for example, you're going to have people who are clustered
- 16:05around a certain set of heights.
- 16:07I mean, most people in the world are between, I don't know, 4'10 and 6'5 or something like
- 16:13that.
- 16:14And beyond that, you're talking about some relatively small percentages.
- 16:17And so with wealth, it's different.
- 16:19You have a lot of people who are poor, right?
- 16:21I mean, the average person is living on a substantially lower salary than those who live
- 16:25in the rich West.
- 16:27And then you have people like Elon Musk who have over $100 billion.
- 16:30I mean, I don't know what his now worth is now after he destroyed Twitter, but it's less
- 16:34than it was.
- 16:35Anyway, the point is that what they find in this simulation is that lightning, that luck
- 16:41aspect is going to strike most often in the middle of the bell curve, which makes complete
- 16:46sense because the most people are there.
- 16:48So it's really rare for luck to hit the extremely talented.
- 16:51It's also really rare for luck to hit the extremely untalented.
- 16:54It mostly hits the people who are near the middle.
- 16:57So what they find is that as the luck hits those people, they actually get very rich.
- 17:02And so what this suggests is that, yes, talent plays a role, but actually luck plays a much
- 17:08bigger role for getting to the extremes.
- 17:11So there is a correlation between talent and success in some societies.
- 17:16But if you want to be super rich, you have to be both a little bit talented, but mostly
- 17:20you have to be really lucky.
- 17:22And this is something where we make the mistake because we only see the rich people and say,
- 17:26oh, wow, they must have deserved it.
- 17:28What we don't see are the extremely talented people who didn't hit success because they
- 17:32were unlucky.
- 17:33And we also don't see a lot of the people who are at the same level of talent as someone
- 17:37like Elon Musk and just never got lucky.
- 17:40And I think that's the point that is really important for societies to internalize because
- 17:45this myth making around uber wealthy people is so counterproductive in suggesting that
- 17:51he's just better than us, which is just false basically.
- 17:54And I think that the Twitter debacle has showed that because he has not run that company successfully.
- 18:01What about hard work?
- 18:02Yeah.
- 18:04Hard work obviously matters.
- 18:06I think going back to the first point I made, whether someone works hard or not, I don't
- 18:11think is totally a unconstrained choice that they have that just, you know, oh, some people
- 18:16choose it and some people don't.
- 18:17I think there's some factors that influence it.
- 18:20But I also think that, yes, I mean, obviously perseverance and striving are good things.
- 18:25So in the book, I talk about whether there's free will and so on.
- 18:27And that's a question about causality, what causes behavior.
- 18:31But whatever causes behavior, I think that humans are striving beings and we should want
- 18:36to better ourselves.
- 18:37We should want to improve ourselves and so on.
- 18:39So working hard, obviously, all things being equal is a good idea.
- 18:44I mean, of course, you can't always hold everything constant and say all things are equal.
- 18:48But as a principle, yes, I mean, I think hard work is correlated with success to a certain
- 18:53degree.
- 18:54That being said, there are some things where this myth making around self help, it's like,
- 18:59okay, if I was born in...
- 19:01One of the countries I do a lot of research in is Madagascar.
- 19:04And if I was born in Madagascar, my life chances would just...
- 19:06No matter how hard I worked, my life chances would be substantially lower because there's
- 19:11just a large number of barriers that no matter how talented or hardworking I was, the odds
- 19:17that I would have a successful life are just lower.
- 19:20Right?
- 19:21I mean, only 40% of the island has electricity, the average person's living on less than $2
- 19:25a day.
- 19:26It's hard to become successful in that society.
- 19:29And so I think that's one of those things where we need to simultaneously say that hard
- 19:35work is a value to be promoted because good for society, but also that we overplay the
- 19:41degree to which people deserve success.
- 19:43And the corollary of that, which I think is very comforting, is we also overplay the degree
- 19:46to which people deserve blame for not succeeding.
- 19:51And I think a lot of us could let ourselves off the hook a little bit more and understand
- 19:56that our lives are partly directed by our actions, but partly they're not.
- 20:02And partly we can't control that.
- 20:04And so this sort of culture in which individualism and self-help ideas reign supreme creates
- 20:11a lot of misery that I think is unnecessary because people internalize setbacks and failures
- 20:17as though it's exclusively their fault.
- 20:19It's not true.
- 20:20Yeah.
- 20:21I asked about hard work because I don't know how much time you spend on the internet.
- 20:24I hope you spend less time than I do there because there's this soul-sucking, pervasive,
- 20:31hustle culture thing going on which tells you that you need to squeeze every last ounce
- 20:38of sweat out of your body, constantly striving to achieve more.
- 20:45And if you do, you're going to get rich and successful.
- 20:49And it seems that it's quite successful and it terrifies me.
- 20:54Yeah.
- 20:55I mean, this is some of the philosophy in the book.
- 20:58I mean, one of the things that was fun about writing this book was that I didn't know exactly
- 21:02what it was going to take me.
- 21:04And I start by thinking about ideas from evolutionary biology and chaos theory and some of my own
- 21:08social research.
- 21:09And all of a sudden I end up with philosophy because it starts to sort of challenge some
- 21:14of the questions and basic assumptions that we have about why our lives are meaningful
- 21:18and so on.
- 21:19And this is one of the areas where I think...
- 21:21I look around and I'm guilty of this myself, where I look at February of 2020.
- 21:28And I have a huge number of checklists on my laptop.
- 21:33It's like my to-do list of February 2020 and then I have another one two weeks later and
- 21:37so on.
- 21:39And it's sort of constantly being updated.
- 21:40And every day is just this check...
- 21:42What I call a checklist existence.
- 21:44And a lot of it's for these sort of arbitrary metrics about what we deem as successful.
- 21:49And I think one of the things that starts to be internalized when you think about the
- 21:52way that I think the world actually works, which is swayed by a lot of these contingent
- 21:56chance chaotic events, is you start to think a little bit less about the importance of
- 22:02our lives in terms of these metrics that were sold as the sort of virtues of a good life.
- 22:09And it was a fun...
- 22:11I don't write about this personally in the book, but from a personal perspective, it
- 22:14was a really interesting thing writing this because I started living differently as I
- 22:20researched and wrote things that changed my worldview, where a lot of the writing that
- 22:24I did was after I walked my dog and I would go out into nature and I would just jettison
- 22:30that online culture and just be in the moment and think about things and reflect on things
- 22:37and then come home and write.
- 22:38And I realized that that made me way happier.
- 22:42So I stopped doing a lot of stuff that made me less happy and I started spending a lot
- 22:45more time walking my dog.
- 22:48And I have no idea how much this will hurt me professionally or financially or whatever,
- 22:52but I'm happier.
- 22:53And so I think it was one of those...
- 22:56This has never happened to me in writing a book before.
- 22:58All my other books, I was sort of broadcasting what I thought to be true in written form.
- 23:04And in Fluke, I was learning how I thought about the world in a totally different way
- 23:09as I was writing it and then adjusting my lifestyle accordingly, which was super interesting
- 23:13and is why it's the most fun thing I've ever worked on and the most rewarding thing I've
- 23:16ever worked on in my life.
- 23:18How do we make sure that it lasts because I also have those moments sometimes and it's
- 23:24quite clear that I'm happier as well when I'm not spending all of my time scrolling endlessly
- 23:30through YouTube shorts and TikToks and stuff like this.
- 23:34But then it sucks me right back in.
- 23:36I'm sorry that I'm pursuing this self-help sort of line of questioning, but I'm genuinely
- 23:42curious how to make it stick.
- 23:44If you know we're happier, but we keep going back.
- 23:47Yeah, and I don't have all the answers.
- 23:49I still spend way too much time on my phone and so on and way too much time on social
- 23:53media.
- 23:54So I haven't cracked the case completely.
- 23:56What I would say though is that it's just...
- 23:59What I hope happens...
- 24:00This is when I was writing this, I was hoping that people would just think more reflectively
- 24:04about these things.
- 24:07If they agree with me on some of the aspects about the worldview stuff, it starts to become
- 24:12immediately apparent how illogical it is to live this sort of checklist existence and
- 24:17also the passivity that comes with doom scrolling through things on the internet.
- 24:23Because I think we've just sort of lost sight of some of the things that make us human.
- 24:28And one of those things is just being present in the moment, interacting with people around
- 24:32you and enjoying life.
- 24:35And I think this is the stuff where I worried and I was very careful in how I tried to write
- 24:39this.
- 24:40Some people will read Fluke and feel nihilistic, I think, because they'll misinterpret what
- 24:46I'm saying, I think, as nothing matters, right?
- 24:49Because we're not in control and all these cosmic flukes and so on that we can't bend
- 24:54to our whims are diverting our trajectories all the time, et cetera.
- 24:58I think the exact opposite of that, which is that when you think about the world this
- 25:02way, every moment that you have is affecting the future, not just of your life, but also
- 25:08quite literally the future of which people get born and how other people live their life
- 25:12and so on.
- 25:14And that creates a mentality where it's very much live in the moment, enjoy the moments
- 25:18you have.
- 25:19And I think the other thing that's quite obvious, cliche advice, but it's just sort of like,
- 25:23I think about the things that I'm going to care about when I'm on my deathbed, whenever
- 25:26that will be.
- 25:28It's not going to be a lot of objects.
- 25:30So this is at odds with basically the way that society is set up.
- 25:34I mean, society is set up with dopamine hits on the internet, which are basically addictive
- 25:38and they cause you to keep coming back, as you say.
- 25:41But it's also set up to tell you that the way to live a successful life is to be rich
- 25:45and to buy things.
- 25:47And so I think there's some of these things which are, when you think about the idea,
- 25:51there's some ideas in the book about evolutionary psychology and so on.
- 25:54And evolutionary psychology is talking about how our minds basically were shaped for a
- 26:00very, very different world from the one we now inhabit.
- 26:04And I think one of the lessons of that is, let's try to live 10 or 15% more like our
- 26:11primitive ancestors, which means going out in nature, spending time with people, not
- 26:16constantly checking our watches to try to figure out what the next scheduling commitment
- 26:19is.
- 26:20And so I mean, some of these things are impossible to avoid completely.
- 26:22Obviously, you have to live in the real world.
- 26:25We can't all be hermits in a sort of commune or whatever.
- 26:28But I do think there is some degree of self-reflection that can be used to overcome.
- 26:38Every time you write a book, you hope people send you certain kinds of emails.
- 26:40One of the emails that I hope people send me after reading this book is exactly what
- 26:44you said at the opening of the show, that it made them think about their lives differently
- 26:47and they therefore are living a happier existence.
- 26:49And that's going to be totally different from how I will adapt to these ideas.
- 26:54But I hope that everyone internalizes a challenge to their worldview in a slightly different
- 26:58way that makes them live a more deliberate and enjoyable life.
- 27:03Speaking of evolutionary psychology, one of the most jarring chapters in your book for
- 27:08me is the one where you explain why by design we are creatures who constantly look for patterns
- 27:14and who can't really make sense of things unless they relate to us in the version of
- 27:20a story.
- 27:21How can we ever get over this need for a narrative every time we look at the world if we are
- 27:28built this way, essentially?
- 27:30Well, the short answer is we can't.
- 27:32Yeah, that's what I thought.
- 27:34Okay, that's done.
- 27:35This is a footnoted fluke where I say, look, I'm going to tell you all this stuff about
- 27:38how narrative bias exists and how our minds travel.
- 27:41And then you give us a bunch of stories.
- 27:43Yeah.
- 27:44But I have to, right?
- 27:45Because the only way to convey meaning.
- 27:46There's no way to do it.
- 27:47I don't think it's bad either.
- 27:48I mean, I think there's an importance in acknowledging this, right?
- 27:53So the reason I bring this in is because I say the reason why we don't appreciate or
- 27:59acknowledge the randomness that does divert our lives and the chance and contingent events
- 28:04that shape our existence and our societies is precisely because the processing units
- 28:09we have to explore the worlds have evolved to write out the noise and focus on the pattern.
- 28:15And the reason for that, I mean, it's very simple to understand, right?
- 28:17So if you hear a bit of rustling in the grasses in prehistoric earth as early humans, and
- 28:25you think, oh, that used to correlate in the past with a saber-toothed tiger being in the
- 28:31grass, then that pattern of cause and effect saves your life because you know to avoid
- 28:36something.
- 28:37Now, it's not very costly if the rustling in the grass turns out to be nothing.
- 28:41It's very costly if you dismiss the rustling in the grass and it turns out to be a saber-toothed
- 28:45tiger, right?
- 28:46So through survival and who gets to pass their genes on, we've basically been honed to over
- 28:53sensitize ourselves to patterns.
- 28:55Now, that's very, very good a lot of the time because it basically means that we learn really
- 28:59quickly from past events and avoid catastrophe when we have an experience that's useful to
- 29:05learn from.
- 29:06What it also does is it means that when things are truly unconnected, we still connect them.
- 29:11And this is where we write stories.
- 29:14And I have in that chapter, there's a very short story of six words that when I say it,
- 29:20everyone will conjure up the same images.
- 29:22It says a tiger, a hunter, a tiger, right?
- 29:27And almost everybody has the same sort of narrative stitched together from the six words.
- 29:31There's no reason why they have to be related.
- 29:33It could be two different tigers in totally different places.
- 29:36The hunter might be eating a sandwich a thousand miles away.
- 29:39We don't know.
- 29:40But everybody sort of assumes what has happened is the tiger has come, the hunters arrived,
- 29:44the tiger has eaten the hunter or mauled him or whatever.
- 29:47And also, very often in our minds, we have imaginings that are connected to these seemingly
- 29:55related stories.
- 29:57This innate aspect of us is one that we shouldn't necessarily shy away from.
- 30:01We should just understand that it is causing us to misunderstand the world sometimes.
- 30:06So whenever there's a blank, our mind has to fill it up and make a sensible kind of
- 30:12story out of it, right?
- 30:15Yeah.
- 30:16It's the same thing.
- 30:17There's this idea, everything happens for a reason.
- 30:20And that is narrative bias incarnate, right?
- 30:24It's not true.
- 30:25It's not that everything happens for a reason.
- 30:28If you're a believer, you might think there's a grand plan to all these things.
- 30:32But from my perspective, when I think about the dinosaurs getting wiped out by the asteroid,
- 30:37the best thing that physics has, the best grasp of that event that physics has at the
- 30:41moment is that there was an oscillation in the Oort cloud in the distant reaches of space
- 30:45which flung this asteroid out that wiped out the dinosaurs.
- 30:47I don't think there was a reason for that.
- 30:49I think it was sort of just a random thing that happened in space.
- 30:52So however, whenever something happens, we sort of stitch the narrative backwards.
- 30:58Oh, well, the reason why this happened was because humans were supposed to exist.
- 31:03And religion has that as a mentality.
- 31:05So of course, if people believe those things, then there is a cosmic purpose to all these
- 31:09things.
- 31:10My worldview is that there isn't.
- 31:13And so therefore, what I think is important to think whether you believe in a grand purpose
- 31:17or not, what I do think is a universal truth is that we do overemphasize the patterns in
- 31:24explaining social change in ways that are potentially harmful.
- 31:27Because if we think that the reason why X happened was Y, then what we're always going
- 31:33to do is try to learn from that.
- 31:34And sometimes randomness does create diversions of effects and so on.
- 31:40So the Arab Spring is a great example of this where you've got a random man who sells vegetables
- 31:47in the middle of Tunisia, gets just totally fed up with life and lights himself on fire.
- 31:53And uprisings start in what, 10 countries in the span of a few months and multiple regimes
- 31:57collapse.
- 31:58And who knows what would have happened if he didn't light himself on fire?
- 32:02I don't know.
- 32:03But our societies can be drastically changed by very comparatively small events.
- 32:09And I think there's a tendency to always emphasize the order, the sort of what I call the storybook
- 32:16reality in which everything is a neat and tidy progression.
- 32:19I think if you think about the world differently, you start to appreciate that the narrative
- 32:24bias is potentially useful for navigating the world, but fundamentally untrue, which
- 32:30is important to note.
- 32:32Are conspiracy theories the ultimate manifestation of this desire to see the world as ordered
- 32:39by simple rational cause and effect model?
- 32:42Because as ridiculous as they usually sound, at least someone, even if it's a shadowy cabal,
- 32:48is driving the whole thing.
- 32:50Yeah.
- 32:51And so people, there are two realms that are particularly prone to narrative bias on steroids.
- 32:57One of them is negative news, right?
- 32:59So what I mean by that is you get told that you have a cancer diagnosis, which, God forbid,
- 33:03when people get that, it's a terrible, terrible moment in their lives.
- 33:07And it's really difficult to just believe it just happened.
- 33:11There was no reason, right?
- 33:13So when really bad things happen to people, narrative bias kicks in to overdrive.
- 33:17And this is also true when we lose jobs or when people break up with us and so on.
- 33:22So negative events are very difficult to explain without narrative.
- 33:28Positive events, people are willing to accept random chances.
- 33:30Very few lottery winners, I mean, some of them do, but it's less likely that a lottery
- 33:35winner will come up with this grand story about how exactly this was meant to happen.
- 33:40We're more willing to accept just random chance for positive events.
- 33:44Now, conspiracy theories are a different realm where they're prone to what's called magnitude
- 33:49bias.
- 33:50And I think there's a lot of discourse about conspiracy theories.
- 33:52I think there's a simpler explanation, which Jonathan Gottschall, a great writer and scholar
- 33:58has come up with, where he says, look, the problem is that conspiracy theories always
- 34:06have one hell of a good story.
- 34:08And we are prone to lashing out stories.
- 34:12Sometimes even the story is crap.
- 34:14That's true.
- 34:15That is true.
- 34:16But often, QAnon is a crazy, crazy story.
- 34:20For those who aren't familiar, it's this idea that the Democratic Party is somehow taken
- 34:24over by satanic cabal of pedophiles who have these secret meetings and run the world and
- 34:30so on.
- 34:31Totally crazy.
- 34:32But you could see this as some sort of sci-fi movie or something like that, and the plot
- 34:36would be interesting.
- 34:38So the point that Gottschall is making is the way you debunk a conspiracy theory is,
- 34:43okay, here's the story that you've been told.
- 34:45Now, what we're going to tell you is there's no story.
- 34:47Nothing's going on.
- 34:48And for the storytelling...
- 34:49A bit anticlimactic.
- 34:50Yes.
- 34:51Yeah, exactly.
- 34:52And he has this phrase.
- 34:53He wrote this book called The Storytelling Animal, and he says, we're a storytelling
- 34:56animal.
- 34:57Telling the storytelling animal there's no story is just a losing battle.
- 35:01So that's part one.
- 35:02Part two is magnitude bias.
- 35:04And the classic example of this that comes up in the research that I've read is Princess
- 35:09Diana's death.
- 35:10So I believe that what happened is what happened, right?
- 35:14That she was trying to outrun the paparazzi and they sped in their car and they crashed.
- 35:20But this seems like a very sort of small cause for what was believed to be a very large political
- 35:27event, at least in Britain and so on.
- 35:29And so magnitude bias is where people say, something important happened.
- 35:33There must have been an important cause.
- 35:35There must have been an action that was driving this.
- 35:38And this is where, amazingly, in the conspiracy theory literature, you have people who will
- 35:42say yes to the following two premises.
- 35:45That A, Princess Diana is still alive, and B, that the government killed her, right?
- 35:50And the reason they're willing to do those obviously incompatible ideas is because they're
- 35:55more willing to accept there was something that happened that was behind the scenes than
- 35:59that there was nothing.
- 36:00It was just this sort of arbitrary accident.
- 36:03We're allergic to accidental explanations.
- 36:05And this, you know, Gottschall comes up, I wrote this in Flute, but Gottschall comes
- 36:08up with this when he's describing how fiction works, right?
- 36:12He has this brilliant line, I quoted it in the book, where he says, you know, we don't
- 36:16know how the story of Harry Potter is going to end when we're reading the book.
- 36:20We're pretty sure though, that what's not going to happen is Voldemort is going to slip
- 36:24on a banana peel and die, right?
- 36:26Because we just wouldn't deal with that very well.
- 36:28It's like you read these seven books and then all of a sudden this accident happens.
- 36:32And it's like, oh, okay, that's it.
- 36:34And the reason why we wouldn't accept that is because we are totally, totally allergic
- 36:39to explanations that are just like, whoops.
- 36:42And yet the world is full of oops moments that are important.
- 36:47Your Princess Diana story made me think about Tupac's death because I'm a big hip hop fan.
- 36:53And as a teenager, I remember how we had the same reaction to his death.
- 36:58We were like, oh, somebody else killed him.
- 37:00It was a big conspiracy.
- 37:02But then other days we would just be like, no, he's in Cuba.
- 37:05He's still alive.
- 37:06You know, he's hiding in Cuba.
- 37:07Yeah.
- 37:08Well, I mean, it makes sense.
- 37:11It's a way to make sense of a tragic and unforeseen event.
- 37:13So it's totally rational in that sense of how to cope with it.
- 37:18I hosted an ex-truther on this podcast recently.
- 37:22His name is Brent Lee.
- 37:23He's a fantastic guy, super smart.
- 37:25He's from the UK.
- 37:26He used to be in the rabbit hole, as he calls it, for 15 years.
- 37:29He has a podcast now where he's breaking down all of these various conspiracy theories with
- 37:36a critical eye, trying to pull other people out of them.
- 37:39And he very vividly described the moment he fell for conspiracy theories.
- 37:43His father was a Vietnam war veteran suffering from PTSD, which turned Brett into a staunch
- 37:49pacifist.
- 37:50And as a staunch pacifist, he wondered why wars keep happening around the world.
- 37:55It kept bothering him until he watched a series of videos about how 9-11 was an inside job
- 38:02and how all of these conflicts are actually orchestrated somewhere in the background,
- 38:06of course.
- 38:07He said that everything suddenly made sense.
- 38:10He didn't have to question anymore, you know, and that was it.
- 38:14It's very similar to what you described.
- 38:16We need to fill in the blank space with something that makes sense.
- 38:20Yeah.
- 38:21I mean, it's a complete classic.
- 38:22And it's also, I mean, I've studied conspiracy theories a little bit in my prior work as
- 38:27well.
- 38:28And, you know, the other thing, in addition to the storytelling aspect, it's also the
- 38:31sense of belonging.
- 38:32And this relates to questions around fluke too, because I think there's sort of this
- 38:36universal search for meaning in life.
- 38:39And I think that my belief on this is that I am sort of an accident, right?
- 38:46I mean, I tell a story early on in the book about how I'm the byproduct of a mass murder,
- 38:52basically in 1905.
- 38:53So I am an accidental being, right?
- 38:55I mean, if this hadn't happened, I wouldn't be alive.
- 39:00And so when you think that way, you think, OK, well, maybe my life is sort of arbitrary,
- 39:05the fact that I exist.
- 39:07And again, that tempts people towards nihilism.
- 39:09I think the alternative view is that you're part of something enormous, which is humanity.
- 39:15You're part of a community.
- 39:16You're constantly affecting other people's lives.
- 39:18And so that sense of alienation that lots of people have in modern society is tied to
- 39:23the idea that we talked about previously, the atomization of individual belief that
- 39:27you're the sort of independent agent, not part of a larger system that controls everything,
- 39:33controls your life.
- 39:34And that, I think, is really, really pervasive in modern life, which is feeding into this
- 39:38conspiracism.
- 39:40Because what lots of people do when they go down the rabbit hole is they find a community
- 39:44of similar believers who bond really quickly because they share the same narrative and
- 39:49they feel like they're part of the same community.
- 39:52So you basically are putting, I mean, this is why it's so difficult to get people out
- 39:56of these communities, is because, first off, you're telling the story telling animal there's
- 40:00no story when all of a sudden this new information has suddenly made sense of a very complex
- 40:05world for them in a very simple narrative.
- 40:08And then secondly, you have the social glue of the community for people who are often
- 40:12very socially isolated and find themselves connected to these people.
- 40:16And I think this aspect of the simplicity of the story as well, I mean, what you're
- 40:20describing with that, oh, here's the explanation for all wars.
- 40:23Yeah, it's like, OK, well, actually, the real explanation is that there's eight billion
- 40:28people in extraordinarily complex systems that we call the international relations world.
- 40:35And there's this drastic, there's this long history of grievances and injustices and there's
- 40:40actions and greed and there's a million things happening.
- 40:44And our brains are not cut out to process a million things because our brains evolved
- 40:48in a world that had very simple cause and effect patterns.
- 40:51I mean, that's the thing that I think is worth remembering is that if you took the whole
- 40:55world history, all of humanity's history, rather, and you put it into a 24 hour time
- 41:01scale, 23 hours and three minutes would be hunter gatherers.
- 41:05So our brains were shaped almost exclusively by a period in which the complexity of society
- 41:11was not big.
- 41:12It was basically small groups of 80 to 100 people who basically foraged around for food
- 41:18and tried to kill animals to survive.
- 41:20And so in those worlds, you don't have to understand geopolitics.
- 41:24You don't have to understand economics.
- 41:26You don't have to understand complexity of eight billion people interacting.
- 41:29And our brains are just not equipped to that.
- 41:31So when you give people, oh, here's this really straightforward X to Y explanation, the storybook
- 41:36reality I talk about, it's seductive and our brains are fundamentally honed to trick us.
- 41:43And so that's the realm where I think those experiences where people talk about how they
- 41:49were duped, I hope more people incorporate that aspect of storytelling because it does
- 41:55resonate with people to understand, hold on, you're just being sold a good story.
- 41:59And that's sometimes hard to avoid, but you just do have to think a little bit deeper.
- 42:04Is this story too neat to be true?
- 42:07And I think almost all of the time the answer is yes.
- 42:10Okay, we talked about our need for storytelling.
- 42:13Where does this need for control that we all feel on a personal and societal level feature
- 42:18in all this?
- 42:19Yeah, I mean, when people think about their own lives, they write stories as well.
- 42:23Right?
- 42:24I mean, people have a narrative arc to how they think they got to where they are today.
- 42:27Now, I mean, the point that I make is that narrative arc is not a bad one.
- 42:31It's often good to be self reflective and so on.
- 42:34But there's two things I would say about it.
- 42:36First off, the narrative arc is wrong.
- 42:39And I don't mean this to sort of belittle people's stories about their lives.
- 42:42I mean, I have a story about my life I think about internally.
- 42:45I also believe that I'm wrong about my story because there's a series of invisible things
- 42:51that I am not aware of that totally diverted the trajectory of my life.
- 42:54So I'll tell for your listeners and viewers just in more detail what I alluded to a second
- 42:59ago with that mass murder story.
- 43:02So it's 1905 in Wisconsin.
- 43:04This woman has four young children.
- 43:06She snaps and probably has postpartum depression.
- 43:09That's what you call it today, but it's 1905 so they don't know about this.
- 43:12So she basically snaps and kills her four kids and then kills herself.
- 43:17And her husband comes home and finds the whole family murdered.
- 43:21And this is my great grandfather's first wife.
- 43:24And so he remarries to my great grandmother.
- 43:27And the only reason I exist is that lineage that was formed as a result of this horrible
- 43:32mass murder of children.
- 43:33Now the reason I tell that story in the context of your question is because I was totally
- 43:39unaware of this until my dad told me about it when I was in my 20s.
- 43:44And I might have been unaware of it forever.
- 43:47But this is an important part of my life story because the origin of my existence is quite
- 43:51clearly predicated on this event.
- 43:54The other thing that is important about this is that this means that they're often way
- 44:00less dramatic.
- 44:01There's all these things where our lives could have unfolded very differently.
- 44:04The snooze button effect I describe, I coined that term in the book, where we hit the snooze
- 44:08button or don't and our lives do unfold differently.
- 44:11We meet different people that day.
- 44:13We cross paths with someone different.
- 44:15Now maybe it doesn't happen that day, but maybe down the line because we bumped into
- 44:19someone at the coffee shop after having hit the snooze button, they introduce us to somebody
- 44:24else and there's this ripple effect and so on.
- 44:26So these invisible pivots in our lives are ones that we never can put into our stories
- 44:30because we simply don't know they exist.
- 44:32And so it's impossible to write them into our histories.
- 44:35But I also think the other idea that I bring up in the book, this is the philosophical
- 44:39implication of this, is that, and I think personally people disagree about this with
- 44:44me when I've talked to them, but I find this really moving and beautiful.
- 44:48If you believe that everything is interconnected and that every action has an unforeseen but
- 44:52important reaction, then the best and worst moments of your life are inextricably linked.
- 44:59And the reason I came to this conclusion is because everything that is good in my life,
- 45:05every positive impact I've had, every happy moment, wouldn't exist unless four children
- 45:09were murdered in Wisconsin in 1905.
- 45:11Now that is quite literally true.
- 45:14It's something that's very odd to say that way.
- 45:17And it doesn't mean that we should go out and kill people, right?
- 45:21What it means is that you cannot foresee the ripple effects of your actions.
- 45:24Now, because we can't foresee them, you should live an ethical and decent life.
- 45:27You shouldn't murder people and so on.
- 45:29It's not to say, oh, there's a good effect to this.
- 45:32But it's to say that in the span of our own lives, every moment that I've had that has
- 45:36felt the worst possible moment I've ever had is directly causing in the future my best
- 45:42moment.
- 45:43And the thing that's interesting about this is I think this is actually a scientific
- 45:47fact, right?
- 45:48If you talk to physicists or you talk to people who study chaos theory and so on, they're
- 45:53like, yeah, obviously.
- 45:54But this isn't talked about by people who study society because we try to model society
- 46:00into these neat and tidy worlds of here's five variables that cause things.
- 46:04Or we try to talk about the self-help mentality in our own lives, which is like, oh, if you
- 46:08just change these three things, you'll be happy.
- 46:11But actually, the way the reality operates is that we're in this constantly interconnected,
- 46:16unbroken thread of life where one stitch of the thread at a moment that was horrific for
- 46:23us, if you undid that, it would also undo the good moments in your life.
- 46:29It's not to say you wouldn't have good moments.
- 46:31They would just be different, right?
- 46:32So it's not to say like, oh, our lives would be, every single moment, our lives would be
- 46:36radically different.
- 46:37No, that's not necessarily true.
- 46:38There's a certain level of order in our lives.
- 46:40But they would be different somehow.
- 46:42And we don't know how that would be.
- 46:44Sometimes more profound, sometimes less profound.
- 46:46But I do think the philosophical implications of that are really arresting when you think
- 46:50about them.
- 46:51Because when I have terrible moments, they are the cause of my later happiness.
- 46:58And if they weren't, then my life would be different.
- 47:01Which also means trying to control every single aspect of your life in every single moment
- 47:06is futile and would also make you feel like you're failing, basically.
- 47:12Yeah.
- 47:13Right.
- 47:14So this is, it was interesting.
- 47:15I thought about this with some people who were a bit skeptical and were more sort of,
- 47:18well, like, how do we live this way?
- 47:20Right?
- 47:21And I said, look, there's a way to break this down between the sort of useful pragmatic
- 47:26illusion and the underlying reality.
- 47:29So the underlying reality, which is, you know, I think is basically just physics, is that,
- 47:33yes, quite literally, you are sort of along for the ride in some ways, right?
- 47:37There are some things that you can't control and you're sort of just like, you know, along
- 47:40for the ride.
- 47:41But pragmatically, it's useful to live with the illusion that that's not true because
- 47:45it causes us to strive more, it causes us to be more proactive, and that often does
- 47:49yield good results.
- 47:51Now, because of my views on free will and so on, I think we are still along for the
- 47:54ride even when we strive.
- 47:56But my point here is that I think that you can have philosophical implications for the
- 48:02sort of way that reality operates, where, yeah, you have a lot less control than you
- 48:06think you do.
- 48:07And there can still be a useful illusion of some level of control.
- 48:11Now, I say some level because the problem is that when you start to get hubris, that's
- 48:15derived from the fact that, you know, a lot of our world is run on models.
- 48:21When you think about social science, like economics, politics, a lot of it is run on
- 48:24models.
- 48:25And we've internalized those models as being the way the world works.
- 48:28So it's like, oh, if we just tweak this one thing, then this will happen.
- 48:32And it provides a sort of funhouse mirror version of reality that gives us the illusion
- 48:37of control, where, you know, you just need to tweak these three variables and then everything
- 48:42will be fine.
- 48:43And so I think overconfidence in control can be dangerous.
- 48:48I think this is the kind of stuff that gets us into wars and financial breakdowns and
- 48:52so on.
- 48:53So, you know, I think there's a happy medium here.
- 48:56I think for me, what I do is I think, OK, yeah, like I have a lot less control than
- 48:59I think I do.
- 49:00Do I still wake up and try?
- 49:02Yeah, right.
- 49:03I mean, of course I do.
- 49:04Now, can I control whether Fluke will be a bestseller?
- 49:07No, I can't.
- 49:08Right.
- 49:09Like, I talked to a publicist, like I talked to my publisher and, you know, we try.
- 49:14But like, I also recommend, recognize, like, there's just some things that happen.
- 49:19And you know, did Yuval, you know, Yuval Noah Hariri wrote Sapiens, sold like a billion
- 49:24copies.
- 49:25I mean, why did that happen?
- 49:27I don't know.
- 49:28He doesn't know.
- 49:29I mean, that's the thing.
- 49:30It's like he couldn't recreate that if he tried.
- 49:31And I think there's some aspects of this where you just have to accept the limits of your
- 49:36control of the world and also internalize that you are affecting the world all the time,
- 49:41which I think is quite empowering.
- 49:43This makes me think of a terrifying interview I saw recently.
- 49:46There's this tech millionaire who's completely obsessed with longevity.
- 49:49I'm not sure if you've heard of him.
- 49:51His name is Brian Johnson.
- 49:53I Googled him just before the interview.
- 49:54And he actually looks a little bit like a vampire, which is slightly ironic.
- 49:58This guy's entire life is devoted to reverse aging.
- 50:04So far, so good, right?
- 50:06But the frightening thing is in the video, I was listening to the guy describe his day
- 50:11to day life and every single day he eats the same meal at the exact same time.
- 50:16He doesn't date because he's busy collecting his stool sample six times a day.
- 50:21He takes exactly 111 pills every day.
- 50:25He even has a tiny jet pack attached to his penis to monitor his nighttime erections.
- 50:31So in the service of ultimate control, he basically eliminated every single thing that
- 50:36brings any joy in life.
- 50:39I mean, the guy's intent on not creating any new memories until the day he dies, which
- 50:43for me is the opposite of living.
- 50:46And this kind of attitude is now spreading like wildfire everywhere.
- 50:50I mean, like you said, it's probably definitely a good idea to take care of yourself.
- 50:54But why are we so intent on banishing every bit of spontaneity and chance from our lives?
- 51:01Yeah.
- 51:02And this is the kind of thing where I think it's just, there's a question that is sort
- 51:08of underlying a lot of fluke, which is what are humans for?
- 51:14And I don't think humans are just to exist.
- 51:17I don't think that the reason we're on the planet, first off, I mean, I think that we
- 51:20are sort of an evolutionary accident in a lot of ways.
- 51:23But if there was a reason, I do not think it is just to prolong existence.
- 51:27I think that we have, as a species, we have some tools and gifts that are unbelievable.
- 51:33I mean, the sort of joys and extremes of emotion and connection we can find with other people
- 51:39is really extraordinary.
- 51:41Maximizing that is, if there is a meaningful life, I am confident it will be derived from
- 51:46our interactions with other people, not in the jet pack you described or in the pills
- 51:51you take to have the maximum longevity.
- 51:55And I think it's the example you use is an astute one, because it's the ultimate example
- 52:01of someone who has mistaken the sort of purpose or joy of life for exactly what it's not in
- 52:12my view.
- 52:13I mean, other people have different views on this.
- 52:14But my idea here is, I just think we have this small time on the planet and you want
- 52:22to make the most of it and it's not just to prolong it.
- 52:25I want to live a long life, don't get me wrong.
- 52:30But I want to live a good life.
- 52:31And I would much rather live a good but slightly shorter life than a extremely long but miserable
- 52:37existence.
- 52:38And I think that's what that guy is drifting towards.
- 52:41Next question, where does a sense of humor feature in all this?
- 52:45Some of the hardest I've laughed, which means some of the best times I had, were acknowledging
- 52:50the fact that we live in a crazy random existence in a way within an accidental fluke, which
- 52:56is the universe in a funny way.
- 52:59Would you agree?
- 53:00Yeah, no, I love that.
- 53:02I haven't been asked that question about this book.
- 53:05And I love that question because I think it makes you take life a little bit less seriously
- 53:10and savor just sort of the joy of it when you think like, I mean, again, believers will
- 53:15have a different take on this.
- 53:16But I sort of do think like, look, I'm just sort of this accident that emerged from 13.8
- 53:22billion years of the universe existing and all of a sudden, boom, here I am.
- 53:25Why?
- 53:26I don't know.
- 53:27There's a whole bunch of random stuff that happened.
- 53:28I mean, an asteroid hit the planet and the dinosaurs died and there's all these evolutionary
- 53:32things that happened that could have gone otherwise.
- 53:35And then there's all these people and before that, chimpanzee-like creatures that mated
- 53:40and then eventually here I am.
- 53:42And when you start to think that way, you think that's sort of funny, sort of weird
- 53:47that I'm here.
- 53:49And so, you know, the stuff where you like I recently wrote this piece on my newsletter
- 53:54where I was I included the pale blue dot image, which is that image that was taken of the
- 53:59Earth from 3.7 billion miles away and where this little tiny pixel in the blackness of
- 54:06space.
- 54:07And when you start to think that way, you're like, yeah, like, maybe it doesn't matter
- 54:11if I'm like slightly down the social hierarchy today from like my friend who like makes $10,000
- 54:17more than me because like literally where this little pixel in space and, you know,
- 54:23some people find that as I say that it's two sides of the same coin.
- 54:26It's either, oh, there's this nihilism that's associated with this.
- 54:28Oh my gosh, like we're in this tiny little pixel.
- 54:31I think it's actually sort of it just liberating.
- 54:33It's like, OK, for this cosmic accident, what should I do with my time?
- 54:38I don't know.
- 54:39I should like spend it with people I like and like do fun stuff and enjoy things and
- 54:43try to make other people happy.
- 54:46And you know, there's a lot of philosophy that's that's basically that simple.
- 54:51So this sort of arbitrary accident stuff.
- 54:53I mean, if you think that everything happens for a reason, then you sort of everything
- 54:56has to be exactly right.
- 54:59You know, you have to constantly chase control and so on.
- 55:03I think if you have a more appreciation for the chaos of life, it liberates us to live.
- 55:08And that's yeah.
- 55:11As you say, I think it's a moment where sometimes you can just sort of sit back and just laugh
- 55:15and say, well, you know, there's nothing I could do.
- 55:17I sort of ended up in this position.
- 55:19I'm not sure why, but let's just enjoy the ride.
- 55:22You just mentioned chaos.
- 55:23The very last quick question.
- 55:25I'm a huge pop culture fanatic.
- 55:29Have you seen The Dark Knight?
- 55:30I have.
- 55:31Yes.
- 55:32OK, so the Joker says I'm an agent of chaos and there's one thing about chaos.
- 55:37It's fair.
- 55:38Would you agree with that statement?
- 55:40Well, I don't I don't think it's fair in the sense that it creates extremely unequal outcomes
- 55:45that are totally arbitrary.
- 55:46I think it's fair in the sense that it affects all of us.
- 55:49So the lack of control is one where, you know, it is universal.
- 55:55In my opinion, we're all subject to the forces of chaos.
- 55:59But I think also that chaos can produce extremely.
- 56:02I mean, one of the things that's weird to think about is like there literally is someone
- 56:07who is the unluckiest person in the world.
- 56:08I don't know who it is, but there is someone out there who's literally the unluckiest person.
- 56:12By definition, there's also someone who's the luckiest person.
- 56:15So there's unfairness in chance.
- 56:18But we are all subjects to its forces.
- 56:20I do think we're all sort of playthings of lots of these arbitrary and accidental forces.
- 56:26And that is a universal that is fair.
- 56:29Brian, what a pleasure.
- 56:31Thank you so much for taking the time.
- 56:33I can't recommend Fluke enough.
- 56:35When is it out and where can people get it?
- 56:38Thank you so much for having me on the show.
- 56:40It's out January 23rd in the US and February 1st in the UK.
- 56:43So somewhere around those dates anywhere in the world, probably.
- 56:47And you can get it wherever books are sold.
- 56:49All right.
- 56:50Do you have any social media where people can follow your work?
- 56:53I do indeed.
- 56:54I have a newsletter called The Garden of Forking Paths, which is an idea that's central to
- 56:59Fluke, which you can sign up for for free.
- 57:01And then I also have a Twitter account that I use, which is just my name, Brian Kloss,
- 57:06which is spelled K-L-A-A-S.
- 57:07All right.
- 57:08Thanks again.
- 57:09This was a riot.
- 57:10Thank you.
- 57:11Oy, thank you for listening to the episode.
- 57:14If you've enjoyed it, please subscribe and follow on YouTube, Apple podcasts and Spotify.
- 57:20As always, eternal glory and gratitude to my producers who are supporting this show
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- 57:33and Tai Chi.
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- 57:48It's as simple as that.
- 57:50Thank you.
- 57:51Neither cultures, and all communities have 22 different species.