Latest / Dugout Dish Baseball Recruiting Podcast powered by EMD Baseball / NCAA 5-for-5 Eligibility Rule Is Now Law — Full Breakdown & What It Means for Every Recruit - Ep. 174

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NCAA 5-for-5 Eligibility Rule Is Now Law — Full Breakdown & What It Means for Every Recruit - Ep. 174 · Dugout Dish Baseball Recruiting Podcast powered by EMD Baseball

• 0:02
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• 1:10
  Speaker B: welcome to this week's edition of the Dugout Dish podcast. I am Andy Kiri Kitties, joined by my Wonderful co host Mr. Keith Glasser. How we doing sir?
• 1:18
  Speaker C: Great.
• 1:19
  Speaker D: How are you?
• 1:20
  Speaker B: We I'm good. I'm good. You have a wonderful shirt on. For the the listeners who are not on YouTube, the US men's soccer team is a about to kick off in about 10 minutes to try to advance to the round of 16. Keith is wearing a Ric Flair shirt. For those of you who don't know who Ric Flair is, he's he's America defined in a lot of ways but great shirt. Had to call it out.
• 1:52
  Speaker D: Thank you.
• 1:57
  Speaker B: Today we got a hot topic. There was a ruling that came down from the NCAA committee on January on June 23rd where they have passed the anticipated rule change for eligibility for the five for five. They'll be moving to a new age based eligibility model. So I'm going to run down what we do know. I'm going to run down a couple things that we don't know and then me and Keith are going to talk about it. So New Eligibility Model Age based student athletes eligibility clock starts when an athlete enrolls full time or at the beginning of the academic year following their 19th birthday. There was some significant misinformation on Twitter regarding this particular thing that it started when you turn 19. That is in fact not true. If you turn 19 this October, your eligibility clock starts next fall at the start of the following academic year. Just to be clear on that thought, that was a key distinction and it was some language change from the previous kind of leaked information. Additional information here 2026 graduates have exhausted their eligibility. There are already lawsuits that are underway. This could get interesting. It sounds like the NCAA is not budging on this. If you have played your final season this past calendar year, the 25, 26 sporting year, you are done. You do not have any eligibility left and unless something really changes drastically in the courts, they will not have eligibility. In addition, what this five for five rule does there are no more red shirts. There are no more medical or general extension waivers. Something that had become pretty problematic in recent years with COVID and age eligibility or not age eligibility, but medical waivers, gray shirts, stuff that doesn't necessarily apply to baseball, but we're seeing guys get six, seven years of eligibility. That will not happen. It's five. It's a straight five for five is how it reads. No red shirts, no medical, no general extension waivers. There are three exceptions that have been outlined. Military service, religious missions and maternity leave. The 2026 and 2027 class are able so the class that'll be stepping on campus this fall, they are able to leverage whatever model is most beneficial for them. Vast majority are going to take the age based. I do think there are some sports, specifically hockey, where it has been suggested that players who are coming from juniors who might be 20 years old, that the previous model would be most beneficial for them. But for the most part, age based model is going to going to take place and it's going to start this fall. What we don't know will Division 2 and Division 3 adopt the same model? I think the assumption is that yes, it's a matter of time if they do not. I think there's some lingering questions of how transfers and whatnot would potentially be handled if you were to move from Division 2 or Division 3 to Division 1. And then this has been lingering in the background. I've thought about not even bringing it up. But since there is a lawsuit challenging it, I figured we'll mention it because it'll eventually probably get tied into this is will juco years count? Right now they do. There was a bunch of misinformation thrown out about that previously, but there is a lawsuit with Diego Pavia as the lead plaintiff where they're challenging juco years as part of your Division 1 eligibility. They're slated to be a trial for that in February of 2027. I don't think that's going to pass at all. So new age based eligibility model goes into play. College athletics is entered another new era with some of these changes here. And we're going to take some Time to talk about how we think this is going to impact the college baseball landscape, college baseball recruiting and all that good stuff. Coach Glass, anything that I missed?
• 6:26
  Speaker D: No, I don't believe so. Not that I caught.
• 6:29
  Speaker B: That makes me happy I covered that. Yeah. What. Give me, give me, give me some opening thoughts here. Like, what are your, what are your takes? I know you have some opinions on this.
• 6:44
  Speaker D: I think the first thing that we need to. The two things that we need to touch on. One is the language of when your clock actually starts. I think we did a. When they revised what the proposal was, we did a short on it. And it's since been written into the rule that it's. Your clock starts the fall academic year after you turn 19, not, you know, when you turn 19 years old specifically. The other is that right now this is currently only for Division 1 sports. This is not for Division 2. This is not for Division 3. It's not for NAIA. It is specifically only for the Division 1 sport. So, like, those things first and foremost.
• 7:38
  Speaker B: Right?
• 7:39
  Speaker D: Get that, that stuff out of the way because they think, you know, and we've talked about this where we've, you know, pontificated on this topic about what it means for Division 2, Division 3, things of that nature. But it is, it is very, it's very pertinent on our part to very clearly state that this is only at the Division 1 level right now. Now, do I think that Division 2 and Division 3 are likely to follow in these footsteps? Yeah, I do. Some of the people that I've talked to think that it's going to be January of 27, which would be likely that that Division 2 would move to this model Division 3. It could be another year or so. The interesting thing at the Division 3 level is there's a fair amount of schools and there are a fair amount of schools with a lot of leverage at the Division 3 level that do not have grad school and I think fear potentially becoming a tad bit more obsolete in the sports world if they are. No. Are not really able to hold on to players for four years while everyone else can get or can't hold on to it for five when everyone else can,
• 8:50
  Speaker B: you know.
• 8:51
  Speaker D: But I think that it's, I think it's a good thing, honestly. I think a lot of the red shirt, gray shirt, you know, I mean, we got to the point and I mean, I think in football, you know, you could play in like eight games and still get a red shirt for the year. And baseball had gotten a little bit more and things of that, you know, the percentage of the season in which you could play while still maintaining a red shirt in a year of eligibility just kept getting higher and higher, you know, and I don't necessarily know, like, I know everyone wants to be older. I know people want more, you know, developed human beings and older players to be able to do it, but it's, you know, we're, we're getting away from the collegiate athlete, the 18 to 22 year old range where, you know, kids can go and compete and, and grow and mature and become better human beings. And we're, we have 24, 25, 26 year old men out there. And if you don't think there's a difference between that body type and an 18 year old, go look at, you know, go look at some of the guys in the NFL when they're 25, 26 and what they look like in college. It is a massive difference. So, you know, but getting rid of the gray shirts, the red shirts, medical red shirts, and look, some of those things are unfortunate, but at the same time, you know, life isn't the most fair thing in the world. This gives you an age based model in which you have five years to be able to play five seasons in the, in the sport in which you compete. I think it's more than fair, you
• 10:21
  Speaker C: know,
• 10:24
  Speaker D: I, inevitably, you're going to have people that are going to, you know, the people that are 25, 26 grads that, you know, want the extra year. Again, life isn't fair. Like at some point we have to move on. We can't just, it's not equal for everybody in this matter. Like, this is the new rule moving forward. Anyone before that, Sorry, right. Like, it's like being a 22 grad, being like, well, I'm four years removed, I want to get in like no, man, move on. The dream's over. I think the one interesting thing that obviously only time will tell is how many people actually do leverage that fifth year, whether it's at the school they're at or transferring to another school for grad purposes. You know, I could see in some regards a decent amount of people kind of sticking to the four year plan, depending on what they do and play four years and then move on and, you know, maybe not exhaust that fifth year of eligibility. You know, I do think that if at the Division 2 and 3 level, this passes, you know, more specifically, probably at the Division 3 level, I think you'd have a lot more people that would, a lot more players that would probably take advantage of that fifth year and maybe start their grad school with what they're doing in, in that fifth year while being able to play, you know, But I, I wonder how many people are, you know, what does that look like academically at certain schools? Right. Like, there's a lot of things you're gonna, that we're gonna have to unpack. That only time is really going to kind of dictate, you know, like, do you really want to be a double major for five years at a school and add more academics to your plate if you're at a pretty tough academic school just to play for five, you know, do you want to start grad school where it could be a difficult course load and playing in that fifth year becomes a little bit too much?
• 12:11
  Speaker B: I don't know. Right.
• 12:12
  Speaker D: I, I think it's going to be every individual person and program. But, you know, I, I think overall I, I like the, you know, my knee jerk reaction. I think the first time we talked about this, I, I didn't love it. I, I didn't really like where it was. I think that in a rather quick amount of time they've been able to kind of figure out like, yeah, this is, they've put forth what is the, the best option, you know, can things change? Yeah, certainly they can, but I think they've done a really good job of trying to curtail the COVID stuff that we had, the, all the wild red shirt stuff that has been going on, the amount of eligibility, you know, how old people are and trying to get, get it back to a model in which it's actually 18 to, you know, 17 to 23 year olds, let's call it in that age range based on, of, you know, when you actually show up to college.
• 13:12
  Speaker B: Yeah, for me, the, I think there's some language in here that is important and you kind of hit on it as like whether guys are going to exhaust that fifth year.
• 13:22
  Speaker D: Right.
• 13:22
  Speaker B: You have five years of eligibility. Doesn't mean that you get to exhaust them. And it doesn't mean you get to exhaust them at the school that you're at. Doesn't mean that you get to exhaust them, period. It's still college athletics, it's still incredibly competitive and the rosters are not expanding. I don't expect that to happen. And you functionally have a four year attrition roster now responsible for handling five years of attrition. And I think you are going to run into situations where players are going to want to exhaust their fifth year and they're not going to be able to, because the program that they're in may say, hey, it's time for you to move on. And you may not be that, you know, marketable in the next phase of it as a transfer portal guy, right? If you're a senior who's played low level Division 1 baseball and you haven't been very good, right? Or even just an average player, you may not have a place to go for your fifth year. If that coach says, hey, you know, we don't have room for you on the roster. We're at 34, you know, we got freshmen coming in. You know, you, you've been a part time player at best in our program. You know, if you're going to play, you're going to need to do it somewhere else. And if this rule stays at the Division 1 level, I think there's a lot of kids who are going to find themselves not playing their fifth year. I, I just think it's important to. When you see a lot of the stuff on social media, and this is exactly why we do this podcast, so we can talk through this type of stuff because it's always more complicated than it's bad for high school guys or it's good for high school guys or now coaches can develop freshmen. And I just think that it's too short sighted of a conversation and I'm sure we'll get into some other pieces of that too, but. And I think the reality is, is that I think a very small percentage of guys are going to play all five years at the school that they start at. They're either going to outperform the school that they're at and they're going to move on. Right? Like to, you know, use Ameris for an example. If you're a really good, if you're a really good player, Amerist, and you're a really good player in the Mac and you've played there for four years, probably not going back to Maris because you're probably marketable at a level that's a little bit higher than that, right? Maybe you jump up to the Big east or whatever conference, it might be on the same side of it. You could be playing at an ACC school and if you make it through four years at an ACC school and you haven't been drafted, there's a good chance you don't factor into their future plans anyways because they probably got some guys that they think have a higher ceiling. And without the roster, without any roster changes happening, I think that's the thing that people are missing Here is that there's not room for five years of classes on the roster. Coaches have to make decisions and some of the decisions get made for the coaches. Guys enter the transfer portal, you know, whether because it's a good fit or it's a bad fit or you know, the writings on the wall or the conversations that they have, but the attrition just doesn't match the roster size right now. And that's something I think has been not sure if it's been covered very much on the social media side. And I think what you'll see is that I think you're going to see a lot more guys attempting to transfer which could lead to possibly even more transfer portal submissions. Right. Last time I checked there was just for Division 1. This is via D1Baseball.com 2600 kids were in the transfer portal. Pretty much every senior who is playing college baseball next year. Most of them will have to go into the transfer portal if they want to play another year because like I said, you're either better than the place you're at or you're not good enough to play at the place you're at in the future. Which I think inevitably leads to more guys going into the transfer portal. Is it going to be a wild crazy number? I don't know what I mean. Let's, let's quick math that you got 300 teams. What there's about 10,000 players in Division 1 baseball, give or take. We'll just call it 10,000 for easy math. And you say a quarter of those, you know, we're going to, you know, go and graduate. So that's like if all of those guys go on the portal like that's 2,500 guys. The portal gets pretty busy. And you mentioned it, coaches want to be old. It's really hard to win with 18 year olds in college baseball with a bunch of them. And so that, that, that's one of the things that, that popped into my head is you know, I think it we're not going to really know what this looks like until this time next year. But my hunch is is that very few kids are going to play five years of college baseball and do it all at one place whether they want to or not.
• 18:45
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• 19:48
  Speaker B: yeah,
• 19:48
  Speaker D: I think that it's interesting, right? And I think you bring up a good point about seniors next year. I could see next year or even I guess every year really. Right. Moving forward. This is just something I thought of as you were talking about it. Like maybe they have maxed out at their program and they, you know, they can't go up, whatever. We also wonder in some instances do you have like great kid, good teammate, he's contributed for four years and you have some people who leave the program that you didn't expect to which that because theoretically the seniors next year are in a weird spot. Like you're kind of already being recruited over because the idea would be that you're gone. You know, if they get some guys that are leaving that they didn't anticipate, does that open up spots for them to stay at that, that school for a fifth year? Because hey, we didn't expect Joey and Jimmy to leave, but Keith and Andy are still here like as graduating seniors in their arms. They've been successful four years. You know, we can just run it back with them and be okay, you know, so, you know, it might log jam the portal even more in some instances of, you know, hey, we don't even have to go into the portal to replace two guys. We weren't expecting to leave because we already had them on our roster. We were not counting on them being here, but they are and we can just roll with them. But you know, ultimately the other thing that I'm interested in seeing is and I don't think there's, I don't think there's any language in there on this. And I wonder if it's because maybe there, this is my conspiracy theory brain. I wonder if they're anticipating that Division 2 and 3 will both go to the this model because there's no language surrounding transferring up and getting more years. Yeah, like can you start at Division 3 and transfer Division 1 and get a fifth year because they under Division 3 rules. You can't do that same thing in Division 2.
• 22:02
  Speaker B: Yeah. And would you have to do it if you were.
• 22:05
  Speaker D: Is there, is there a time frame in which you would have to transfer out to, in order to gain that fifth year back?
• 22:10
  Speaker B: Yeah. Like, would you have to do it before you graduate?
• 22:14
  Speaker D: Right.
• 22:14
  Speaker B: So transfer as a junior.
• 22:17
  Speaker D: Like my conspiracy theory brain is saying, like, I wonder if they're not throwing language in surrounding that because they're anticipating Division 2 and 3 to vote, pass this through and then everyone's in the same boat of getting five years for, for eligibility sake. Now that's to be clear. Everyone who's listening, that's just me thinking about it that way. I, I don't, I don't know that for sure. I do think Division two is close. Division three, I would imagine. You know, again, I know there's one in particular, but some other leagues that have some, some sway and you know, they don't necessarily lend themselves having a lot of grad school, you know. Yeah, I think, I think it's absurd that. I think it's absurd that you can have a conference out of that much juice when there's 30 plus 40 conferences the Division 3 level. So, you know, my own.
• 23:15
  Speaker B: Speaking of, speaking of conferences having juice, apparently this rule was like, this was done last fall. The ACC and the Big Ten came together and were like, yeah, this is getting changed. And it just slowly kind of made its way through out to the public and everything. But you know, you're talking about having pull and that's really good sources who would know that this is exactly what happened. And yeah, the Division 3 thing, to me, super interesting because I think it brings us back to like, you may want five, but you might not get five. Right. And at the Division 3 level, to your point, there's far fewer schools that are going to offer a one year master's program or a master's program in general than there are at the Division 1 level. And you may be really limited on where you can move and you know, there's some fantastic Division 3 baseball and you're seeing guys transfer up to Division 1 and be really impactful, but there's a lot of guys who finish out their careers as Division 3 players and they're just Division 3 players and they're never going to go play at a higher level than that. And in order to make that fifth year, you would probably need to transfer to a different school or stay at the same one, which I guess we're going to find out. But it only makes it more competitive, in my opinion, if that Division 3 pool is a part of the transfer process and gets a fifth year. Because to be honest, there's some Division 3 guys that are better than Division 1 guys, especially when they get to 21, 22 years old.
• 24:59
  Speaker D: Yeah. And I think the other, you know, to. Not to belabor the point, but to go back to what I previously brought up with the no language, what if you start in Division 1 and end in Division 2 or 3? Do you get five years because no one else does?
• 25:17
  Speaker B: That's a great question. Like, you're a freshman. I was flipping through the portal before we got on here because I was just curious to kind of see what some of the activity was and seeing guys go from Division one to Division three. Like, yeah, does that he only have four years now or does he only have three years left because he went down a level? Right.
• 25:36
  Speaker D: So, like, what would. Again, put your tinfoil hat on everyone? I. I think that, that, like, part of me thinks that there's. There's some serious momentum or they know that Division 2 and 3 are going to pass this.
• 25:55
  Speaker B: Yeah, I think it makes sense. Right?
• 25:57
  Speaker A: You're.
• 25:58
  Speaker D: You're. I mean, think about the. The red tape and the, the paperwork and all the nonsense you're going to have to do if you're going up or down. And it happens a lot more frequently than people think. Like, this isn't just outlier stuff. It happens relatively frequently, especially going down. Like, going down happens more than it does going up.
• 26:17
  Speaker B: Yeah. In a big.
• 26:19
  Speaker D: When I say down, I'm saying in divisions. Right. Like, I'm not talking about you starting at LSU and ending up at Marist. I'm talking about you starting at Marist and going to rpi. So, like, that happens, you know, frequently. And if you start with five and then all enter into Division three, like, now, do you only have four? Are there no red shirt? You know what I mean? Like, there's no red shirts up there. And I never played. Do I only get. I only get three years left or two?
• 26:44
  Speaker B: Whatever.
• 26:45
  Speaker D: Whatever that is.
• 26:47
  Speaker B: And the whole point of this was to remove all the challenges in the red tape. And the waivers was a big part of it just to say, like, hey, we're done dealing with all this stuff.
• 26:58
  Speaker E: It's.
• 26:59
  Speaker B: It's kind of the crux of it is they were done with the waivers, they were done getting sued, and they're saying, hey, you get five years. No wiggle room for any of this. Like, couple athletic directors were quoted in a couple articles that I read and they basically said, like, yeah, you can try, but you're not winning in appeal. Like, you're just not going to win. The new rules don't allow for it.
• 27:26
  Speaker D: I have to imagine that the only way that you would, and I'm sure you can try for a waiver. I have to imagine that if you got a waiver, it's going to be something that is, you know, unrelated to your sport. Right. If we're talking about in the context of baseball, like, it's not you blew your ACL or you blew out and you needed tj. It's going to be something like you got in a free car accident and broke your leg and missed an entire year because of something of that nature. You know what I mean? And like, I, I, I'm not wishing that upon anyone, obviously, but that, to, to, you know, to really accentuate the point. I think that that would probably be something that they would look at, be like, okay, like in a terrible, tragic accident and, you know, broke his leg, he's coming back. Yeah. That we can give that young man or young woman another year because you blew it. You blew an ACL or you, you know, you, you blew out and you need TJ or you had labrum surgery or your rotator cuff snapped, whatever it is, you're not getting years back for, for things of that nature.
• 28:34
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 28:35
  Speaker D: But I think if it's something that is, you know, outside the, the scope of, you know, like, if somebody get, and again, to really hammer the point home, like someone gets cancer, right. Like, you get a clean bill of health, you can go back play. Like, I would be hard pressed for the NCAA to be like, no, you're not getting one. But you know what I mean? Like, I, I just think that those are the types of, those are the types of things from a waiver standpoint that you could bring in front of them. It's not going to be a, you know, I kicked a, I, I was, I kicked a corner kick in and blew my ACL on when I kicked it.
• 29:13
  Speaker B: Yeah. And the timing of it was bad. So I missed, you know, I did it at the end of my sophomore year and I wasn't healthy for my junior year. Like, yeah, it's not going to fly anymore. Like, you're just, it is what it is. Right.
• 29:27
  Speaker D: So, but you know, again, I, I think that it's, it's getting rid of a lot of the, the nonsense that has been going on that we've, you know, as coaches, we've dealt with and, you know, eligibility questions and things of that nature. That there's, it makes it cleaner. It gives you a hard start and a hard stop and these are the rules. This is what it is. But you know, again, I, like I said at the top, I wasn't necessarily someone who my knee jerk reaction was, this was, isn't great. But I think that as I've sat and thought about it and seen, tried to extrapolate out what I think is going to happen versus what is, you know, going to happen, I don't, I actually like it more than what we're under now. And my mind could change. Right. Anyone's my opinion of this could change once we get into it, but I think that it just makes it a hell of a lot more cleaner.
• 30:22
  Speaker B: You are not allowed to change your opinion. This is it. But you've been quoted.
• 30:28
  Speaker D: I'm very interested and I don't mean for this podcast to turn into a tinfoil hat conversation, but I am very interested in my video went out for people who are watching on YouTube. But I, I'm interested in what happens at Division 2 and 3 and kind of what that movement would look like as we move forward. You know, and I don't necessarily know when that's going to come out. I mean I've heard early 27 things like that. So, you know, I guess time will tell. But I, I, I do find it interesting that there's no language in the rule as to what happens from a transfer standpoint and things like that. And maybe, maybe that's something that's going to come out in August or something. You know what I mean?
• 31:11
  Speaker B: That could also be something that might
• 31:13
  Speaker D: be a slow drip that they're, they're trying to hammer that, that work out and that's going to come out with it in a couple months. But you know, we just, we haven't really heard anything and it didn't come out with the initial.
• 31:24
  Speaker B: Yeah, I know there's, there's an active Appeals window through July 31 where I'm not, I don't believe the 2025 and 2026 class has the ability to appeal, but I believe that people who have not exhausted their eligibility may be able to appeal an additional year on top of what they've already would be given. So a junior could be given an additional year after they graduate where they wouldn't have gotten that previously. So maybe they're waiting to kind of sort some of that stuff out. But yeah, it's definitely something to watch because it'll, it'll have an Impact one way or another, we kind of hit on the transfer portal. I think it's got a chance to be even fuzzier and, and more competitive because the fifth year guys, like the, the guys are going to be seniors this fall who aren't pro guys who've had good careers, they're going to be really marketable in the transfer portal. And you know, two weeks ago they would have not had the option of going into the transfer portal after this year because they wouldn't have had eligibility. So I think, you know, functionally you're going to get some, some busyness with the transfer portal there. But obviously we talk about a lot about the high school recruiting and I think one of the things that we definitely have to touch on here is like, what's, what's the impact here of high school baseball players? And you know, for me, I don't think it helps them. I don't know if it hurts them. But this idea that coaches are going to recruit more and more high school players because they have a fifth year, I think I kind of go back to like at a certain point in your college career, you're not good enough to play. You usually figure it out pretty soon, right? If you haven't played it all by the time you're a sophomore, like if you haven't, if you finish your sophomore year and you're not in the mix, like, you're probably never going to be in the mix, especially in the days of the transfer portal at the Division 1 level right now. So without the rosters changing, I don't think it is going to all of a sudden just eliminate high school players from the mix. I think it's probably going to stay kind of the same where coaches are. You know, the lifeblood of most programs is going to be freshmen, but they're going to continue to do what's best for their program. And I think it's going to be handled just like we're seeing now. It's going to be handled differently by different programs at different levels. It's way easier to compete at the bottom level of Division 1 with freshmen and sophomores than it is to compete in the SEC or the ACC with a bunch of 18 year olds. I just, you couldn't, you can't do it. You can have some of them, but. So I think at the higher levels they're going to continue to want to stay old and they're going to try to recruit those premium, premium high school kids who have a chance to be impactful when they get to campus. So I don't think it's going to change a ton for high school guys, but I think this idea that it's going to be beneficial to them because they have an extra year, I've heard a lot of people try to make that argument and I've yet to be convinced, mostly because there's no roster flexibility. Like, you do not have time to take a flyer on a kid that might be good when he's a junior. You just a couple injuries away from having to play guys that you never planned on playing in their freshman year. And those guys need to be close to being able to help you, you know. So taking the dude who needs a full year in the weight room, I just, I don't think, I don't think you can do it now because you don't have enough roster spots and I don't think that changes with, with an additional year of eligibility because the rosters haven't changed. So I'm open to being, I'm open to being convinced the other way around, but I've yet to hear a good argument as to how this is beneficial to high school guys. I don't think it hurts them, but I haven't been convinced the other way either. So what are your thoughts on that?
• 35:42
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• 36:09
  Speaker B: who are the right fit.
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• 36:24
  Speaker B: I don't,
• 36:29
  Speaker D: I don't know how much it changes it from where we're currently at. I do think that in some,
• 36:41
  Speaker B: I
• 36:41
  Speaker D: don't know if it changes it for Division one.
• 36:44
  Speaker B: Right.
• 36:44
  Speaker D: And I think the context of this conversation, we're talking only Division 1. I think if this rule goes into effect in Division 2 and 3, I think it changes it for some high school kids that you now have leeway with five years. And you know, now there are some roster restrictions placed on schools by, or programs by schools, but by, you know, there's no roster limit from an NCA standpoint. You can take more kids and get them in the weight room and do things with them. To get them to develop and, and be good for four years for you during that freshman year. But in the context of Division 1, I don't know how much it's really going to move the needle on guys that are, you know, you're going to still have to be ready and be a Division 1 caliber baseball player to find yourself onto a roster. The reality is, and especially we'll see it cycle out and you know, and I don't even know, honestly under this rule, I don't know what, what we, what it looks like with the transfer portal stuff. You know, if we're, generally speaking you're, you're losing kind of one spot a year. If you're recruiting on a five year cycle versus a four, you're going from eight and a half to seven and a half ish players. So you're losing one. But you also, you know, if you're losing guys to the transfer portal, maybe you're adding one or two more guys in a high school class because you really like them and you think that you can get them done better. I don't know. I think it's going to be up to each and every program how they do it. But that said, I, you know, I don't, I don't think it's a negative by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't think it's an overwhelming positive. I think it's just a man. I don't really think it affects a whole hell of a lot for Division 1 going and recruiting high school players because it's, you still got to be good enough to get there.
• 38:41
  Speaker B: And
• 38:43
  Speaker D: you know, it's, they're not going to take a guy on a 34 man roster just to roster them with no red shirts and put them in a weight room for a year and develop them. That's not, the likelihood of that happening is very slim. I think it's going to be way more of a, you know, we'll just replace those guys with kids out of the portal and we're going to continue to bring in six to seven high school kids a year and go from there. And the other side of it too is like if you get unexpected transfers, junior colleges out there too, guys can go get juco guys too, you know, So I, you know, I just, I, I don't think it, I don't think it changes anything drastically. I, to be very clear, I don't think it's negative. Right. Like, I, I do not think that this is negative, but I don't think it's this overwhelming positive either.
• 39:37
  Speaker B: It's just kind of, it's super competitive.
• 39:42
  Speaker D: Seinfeld, when you lose the 20 and then finds a 20 year jacket, you're even Steven.
• 39:46
  Speaker B: Yeah, you're Stephen.
• 39:48
  Speaker D: Nothing really, nothing's really changed here. And I think to, to, to drive the point home, you're going to have some programs that, you know, I say, you know, in a perfect world, 7 and 8, you know, the recruiting cycle, you know, some schools are only bringing in four high school guys and then, you know, jucos and transfers in classes. That's just their model. I don't, my point is like regardless of how many high school kids each program is bringing in, it's not changing it by an overwhelming majority, if at all.
• 40:22
  Speaker B: Yeah, it's, it's ultra competitive. It's going to continue to be ultra competitive. And if you are going to play at the Division 1 level, you need to do some stuff that fires up those coaches and then, and then, you know, once again like kind of the elephant in the room is you need to go and perform when you're there. Right. I'm looking in the transfer portal. There's a lot of freshmen and there's some like even at some of these big name schools, right? There's freshmen who were major, major top of the food chain recruits who were leaving those programs because they weren't going to play. It is, it is ultra competitive. And I don't think that that changes with this. I think it's, it's much the same. But you brought it up. Juco. I think that's an interesting, I think it's an interesting piece of this puzzle. And once again, I don't think it's quite what social media is making it out to be that like everybody's going to go to juco for two years and then they're going to do their three years at four year schools. But I do think that junior college for a lot of guys becomes very, very appealing because you can go and play a lot, a lot of baseball for two years and you still have three years at a four year Division 1 school. It wouldn't surprise me if we start to see an uptick of guys who go to junior college for similar reasons. Some of them may go because they didn't quite get what they want by division one school. Some of them may not even be getting recruited by Division 1 schools and just need to go and compete and junior college is a good path for them. But that's one piece of this puzzle that I'm very interested in. My assumption would be if I was going to throw out. A hypothesis is that I do think that we will see an uptick in high school players choosing to go the junior college route out of high school for that exact reason that hey, I can go guarantee to a certain extent, right? You still gotta earn it. But I give myself a chance to play a boatload of baseball over the course of two years. I get two years in the weight room, I get two years in nutrition, I get two years of experience, all the stuff that we've talked about with junior college. And then I become really marketable once I have a pretty good resume. Then you have the opportunity to go play three years at one of those Division 1 schools versus maybe taking an offer at a school and not being able to get in the mix right away, you lose some of the developmental timeline. So I think that that's something to keep an eye on and I do think that you'll start to see some guys gravitate a little bit more towards junior college.
• 43:08
  Speaker D: Yeah, I concur.
• 43:09
  Speaker B: Dr. The, the other interesting part of this too is the post grad stuff. And I think this is another area where you might see some kids reclass even a little bit more frequently than they are right now to kind of kick back the recruiting timeline an extra year. We all know things are slow right now. We've talked about it for the 2028 class. Recruiting is slow. You know, they had 16 UPBR down at Lake Point. Was from what I'm hearing from different coaches down there and different travel ball guys that we know, pretty light in terms of coaching presence. And I think it's an indication that a lot of these schools are really focused on getting their rosters right for the fall and then making sure that they get their 27s right. So a lot of cross checking on 27s, guys trying to finish out their 27 classes, all that kind of stuff. So it, I think when we get to August it's going to be a little bit slower than, than some people might think with, with how quickly guys come off the board and, and what that looks like. But I think this opens up the door and instead of going to maybe going to junior college that you could do another year as a postgrad or reclass. I mean I think about my situation as a high school guy, I could have reclassed two times and still been eligible under normal. Under normal circumstances. Right. So Keith's celebrating. So I'm pretty sure the US just scored a goal.
• 45:01
  Speaker D: We did.
• 45:02
  Speaker B: Hell yeah. Off sides,
• 45:10
  Speaker D: Flag went up Andy.
• 45:11
  Speaker B: Premature. Yeah. What are you gonna do?
• 45:17
  Speaker D: I don't know. If he's off sides, they're gonna have to. They're gonna go to VAR on this. I don't think he was off.
• 45:23
  Speaker A: Sorry.
• 45:23
  Speaker D: I digress. We have soccer fans here.
• 45:26
  Speaker B: Yeah. But, yeah, I think post grad becomes appealing. I think it's something that families will be discussing. Right. I think it's going to be, you know, based on circumstances and stuff like that. But another way to take it, maybe not take advantage of it the right way, but to. To kind of use the new model to your advantage is, you know, if you are the kid who's going to graduate from high school when you're 17 and you have the means to go to another year of high school, you can reclass or pg, however you want to term it, and you give yourself a whole nother off season of development, a whole nother summer and spring to showcase your abilities. It's worked for a lot of kids in the past, and I'm wondering if it's going to be a little bit more appealing now, specifically for some of the younger guys, where you're going to have the ability to do it and not, you know, butt up against the eligibility model.
• 46:32
  Speaker D: So I don't even know if I think the obvious one is the younger kids, but, you know, you sit and talk about people wanting to be old. Why can't you post grad and then turn 19 in October?
• 46:48
  Speaker B: Yeah. You know what I mean?
• 46:52
  Speaker D: Your clock doesn't start till the following year. You're gonna enter College at 20,
• 46:59
  Speaker A: You
• 46:59
  Speaker D: know, and you'll be. You'll still get it, you know, So I, I think that it's one of those things that. It's certainly something that,
• 47:09
  Speaker B: and I hate
• 47:10
  Speaker D: the term of, like, you don't get what you want. But if you're being lightly recruited or maybe the schools that are recruiting you don't fit what you want academically, things of that nature, it's not a bad idea to go down that hole. And I do think that in some of those postgrad places, they do give out financial aid and they do have the ability to make, make the, the cost of attendance lower. It's at the very least worth kicking the tires on to see what could potentially come out of it, if anything.
• 47:45
  Speaker B: But, I mean, for some guys, it's academic. For some guys, like we were talking about this earlier today, the kid who hits a massive growth spurt and is, like, trying to figure out how his body moves, he might just need another year to really get his feet under, or the kid who another year in the weight room could really move the needle from them. From a recruiting perspective where you're a fringy Division 1 player, maybe you're just a fringy college player, but another year in the weight room and another year of development firmly puts you in the conversation to get recruited. I mean, I think it's a good option. Everything's family to family and kid to kid. But I do think that this new rule opens up the door for that path to potentially be more appealing.
• 48:33
  Speaker D: Well, and I think, I think the other side of it is like, you, you know, and we, oddly enough, as I think about this, with PG kids like you, you sometimes you worry, you know, why did you go? What did they do? What was the reason? You know, and you only get four years. Like, you know, if I can find a kid who's, you know, better, younger, I would take them. But now it's like, well, I have five years, you know, if it's division one thing, like, I have five years, right? Like, there's no. It takes the question, and it takes the question out of it, if you will, and allows you to kind of say, okay, doesn't matter why, it doesn't matter. To me, he's going to be this, I have five years with this kid and we can figure this out and he's going to be six years removed from high school by the time he's a senior if he gets to that point, you know, but it's, it does certainly make it more appealing. And I think that there's more of an argument to be made for some people, you know, and that's probably a different podcast of, you know, whether it's age based or injury based or grades. But whatever it might be, like, it's, it's a, it's not a terrible option for people to look down, especially just knowing now what the rule is and saying like, hey, you know, your clock's not going to start once you graduate high school. It starts, you know, the fall semester after you turn 19 years old.
• 49:58
  Speaker B: Yeah, certainly. Certainly a lot of variables in this. And I think that's why we wanted to take time to talk about this because it seems to get covered in, you know, a short paragraph on Twitter. And I think some of the takes lack the nuance and conversation. And I'm sure we're missing some stuff and I'm sure there's stuff that we're going to come up with and we're going to talk to coaches and they're going to have some slightly different takes. We can certainly report back on some of that stuff as we get a little bit deeper into this. But, you know, a lot of this was not plagiarized, if you will. These were our own thoughts. But, you know, we certainly been talking to a variety of different coaches up and down college baseball who seem to have some similar thoughts as well. So it's, you know, it'd be interesting to see college baseball, college athletics is, is meant to be super competitive. I think this continues to kind of up the level of competition. But this, you know, the Division 1, the Division 2 and Division 3 thing, I think is something we're gonna have to keep an eye out for and how they're gonna handle that and when that language comes out. But that's probably the big thing left out there right now that needs to get answered. Is, is how is that all going to be handled? Because I do think that that will, like every decision the NCAA makes and every rule change and recruiting change that that gets made. There's some sort of impact. There's a trickle down. There's. There's some sort of change. There's adjustments that coaches are going to have to make. And, you know, this is just another one that, that coaches are going to have to make right now. So we shall see.
• 51:43
  Speaker D: Time will tell.
• 51:44
  Speaker B: Time will tell. Anything else you want to add to this, Coach?
• 51:48
  Speaker D: No, sir. I'm sure we'll do another one on this in a month, most likely.
• 51:56
  Speaker B: All right, well, thank you for listening, everybody. Tune in next week. We will talk to you then. Thank you. Thank you for listening this week.
• 52:05
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• 52:09
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• 52:13
  Speaker C: Podcasts, as well as Spotify. You can follow us on Twitter and Instagram MD Baseball. If you want to find out what
• 52:20
  Speaker B: me and Keith do to help families and players navigate the recruiting process, go
• 52:25
  Speaker C: ahead and check us out on emdbaseball.com take a few minutes to check out
• 52:29
  Speaker B: our new online academy. I promise you'll get some good information out of that. Thanks again for listening. Check in with you next week.