Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday MLB + WNBA Bets 7/3/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep.
- 0:01Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
- 0:06Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
- 0:15Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
- 0:18Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:20Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
- 0:27Speaker 2: four Nest have not had a good season. Man with
- 0:32Speaker 2: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
- 0:37Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to.
- 0:41Speaker 2: Burn my browins hat man, I don't know what is
- 0:43Speaker 2: going on with the bruins arch hape?
- 0:46Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:48Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
- 0:52Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
- 0:54Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
- 0:58Speaker 1: worst day that I could.
- 0:58Speaker 2: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
- 1:02Speaker 2: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
- 1:06Speaker 2: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
- 1:10Speaker 2: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 2: To the Slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:26Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
- 1:34Speaker 2: towed back with you for better off dead. July third, baby,
- 1:38Speaker 2: were coming into the holidays, A happy early holiday and everybody.
- 1:41Speaker 2: Hopefully people are getting some of these days off, man
- 1:44Speaker 2: and having some fun, starting the drinking early, even though
- 1:47Speaker 2: I am a sober man now getting some of the
- 1:49Speaker 2: cookouts going early. Man, It's gonna be fun. I'm gonna
- 1:52Speaker 2: be at my parents tomorrow for a bit of a cookout.
- 1:55Speaker 2: So as this tradition so new traditions, it's the old
- 1:59Speaker 2: tradition you that we would go down to my dad's
- 2:02Speaker 2: uncle's cottage on Cape Cod, which I think some of
- 2:07Speaker 2: the family actually still does that if I'm not mistaken.
- 2:09Speaker 1: It was a big pool party cookout.
- 2:11Speaker 2: Back in the day, reminiscing about the childhood of Toad.
- 2:15Speaker 2: Right now, let's talk about betting, though, because that's why
- 2:18Speaker 2: you're here right Well, maybe you're not.
- 2:20Speaker 1: Maybe you just hear from me.
- 2:21Speaker 2: Yesterday we went to and zero on the show, Baby,
- 2:23Speaker 2: as I carried over the Milwaukee Brewers play that I
- 2:27Speaker 2: recommended the previous day into yesterday because it was a
- 2:30Speaker 2: rain out the prior day, so they played yesterday doubleheader
- 2:34Speaker 2: Game one.
- 2:35Speaker 1: Brewers got the job done.
- 2:37Speaker 2: I think I really had some pretty solid analysis on
- 2:40Speaker 2: a lot of these games yesterday, but that one was
- 2:42Speaker 2: a nice win.
- 2:43Speaker 1: They won seven to two, pretty easy win there.
- 2:46Speaker 2: The bullpen situation actually helped a lot with Milwaukee as
- 2:49Speaker 2: well there, so the Mets bullpen just struggling right now, man.
- 2:53Speaker 2: And then we got a pretty easy win on the
- 2:54Speaker 2: Philadelphia Phillies in Game two when the first five innings
- 2:58Speaker 2: they hit as well, and they all they won full game,
- 3:01Speaker 2: and they had the lead after the first five minutes,
- 3:03Speaker 2: so it didn't even matter. I think they won five
- 3:04Speaker 2: to one, and they were up four to one at
- 3:06Speaker 2: the end.
- 3:07Speaker 1: Of the fifth inning.
- 3:08Speaker 2: So two easy wins yesterday on a nice little three
- 3:11Speaker 2: and oh run over the last couple of days.
- 3:13Speaker 1: So that's pretty good for keeping track.
- 3:15Speaker 2: I'm actually up this year if I'm keeping track of everything,
- 3:19Speaker 2: just if I were betting it, which, of course, as
- 3:21Speaker 2: I pointed, out right now. I'm not actually doing it
- 3:23Speaker 2: just to conserve my money, but I'm giving out plays
- 3:26Speaker 2: as if I was betting them. So I'm trying to
- 3:29Speaker 2: give out some solid analysis here.
- 3:30Speaker 1: Man. That's what we do today.
- 3:33Speaker 2: As we do have some WNBA on tap today and
- 3:36Speaker 2: we have a short ish Major League Baseball board today,
- 3:39Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out one WNBA playing one Major League
- 3:42Speaker 2: Baseball play. That's a very toad play. It's another very
- 3:45Speaker 2: boring play. I don't like the baseball board today very
- 3:48Speaker 2: much at all. I said that yesterday was getaway day.
- 3:51Speaker 2: Today really is getaway day for baseball as a few
- 3:55Speaker 2: teams playing. Teams are playing in the afternoon because a
- 3:57Speaker 2: lot of teams have to travel. Of course, yesterday we
- 4:00Speaker 2: had afternoon games as well, and some teams are traveling
- 4:02Speaker 2: as well after yesterday because some teams won't be playing today.
- 4:07Speaker 2: Yesterday was actually I think a record I think it
- 4:09Speaker 2: tied a record nineteen Major League Baseball games played on
- 4:13Speaker 2: one day yesterday. With all the double headers that happened yesterday,
- 4:17Speaker 2: just kind of crazy. Anyway, let's get into it, man.
- 4:20Speaker 2: We got WNBA to talk about here. Where first game
- 4:23Speaker 2: up at seven pm, Vegas, Indiana. I had mentioned that
- 4:27Speaker 2: I kind of wanted to fade Indiana, and I do
- 4:28Speaker 2: think it is still a spot to fade them. And
- 4:30Speaker 2: I'm not gonna actually give out a play on this
- 4:32Speaker 2: one because I think one play that I have is
- 4:34Speaker 2: actually stronger than this. Now, Indiana just won the Commissioner's Cup.
- 4:38Speaker 2: And not only do they do that, but they did
- 4:40Speaker 2: it at Minnesota. I believe it was yeah, on the
- 4:44Speaker 2: road at Minnesota, and they pull off a big upset
- 4:47Speaker 2: without Caitlin Clark ten and a half point upset.
- 4:50Speaker 1: As once Kaitlyn Clark was officially ruled out, that line
- 4:53Speaker 1: went way up.
- 4:54Speaker 2: So Indiana's coming off a major, major upset and a
- 4:57Speaker 2: big win. Now, I was thinking Kaitlin Clark might come
- 5:01Speaker 2: back in this game. So if that was the case, yeah,
- 5:05Speaker 2: I would be on Vegas here if Kaitlin Clark was
- 5:07Speaker 2: coming back in this game, because you have a major
- 5:09Speaker 2: letdown spot for Indiana off that huge upset win that
- 5:12Speaker 2: also was the Commissioner Cup win. Even though this in
- 5:15Speaker 2: season tournament thing, I mean, I don't know how much
- 5:16Speaker 2: it really matters, but I think to Indiana it did
- 5:19Speaker 2: matter because they showed up even without Clark and beat Minnesota.
- 5:24Speaker 1: Game was a bit of an outlier though.
- 5:25Speaker 2: If you look at the percentages in this game, Minnesota
- 5:28Speaker 2: had a terrible shooting game for the most part, thirty
- 5:31Speaker 2: four point nine percent from the field, twenty five percent
- 5:34Speaker 2: from three Indiana show forty two point one percent from three,
- 5:37Speaker 2: So Indiana, there were definitely some outlier shooting percentages on
- 5:42Speaker 2: both sides there. Vegas coming into this game, Vegas trying
- 5:47Speaker 2: to sort of rite the ship here. I mean, they
- 5:49Speaker 2: were without their best player, Asia Wilson kind.
- 5:51Speaker 1: Of in the middle of the season. Here she is back.
- 5:54Speaker 2: Vegas still kind of trying to adapt without Plumb, who
- 5:57Speaker 2: was one of their best players they had last year,
- 5:59Speaker 2: who was now on La Vegas starting to write the
- 6:02Speaker 2: ship though. They won three of their last four games,
- 6:04Speaker 2: and they did just beat Phoenix on the roads. They
- 6:06Speaker 2: are kind of coming off a big win themselves, a
- 6:09Speaker 2: big upset win, and that was a game I believe
- 6:11Speaker 2: I gave that out on the show as a play.
- 6:12Speaker 2: Vegas is an underdog one outright. So my WNBA has
- 6:16Speaker 2: been hitting recently. I've been really picking my spots in
- 6:20Speaker 2: WNBA over the last couple of weeks have been very
- 6:23Speaker 2: sporadic with the plays. Caitlin Clark unfortunately is not going
- 6:28Speaker 2: to come back in this game, though, So if she was,
- 6:30Speaker 2: I would be saying, yeah, I'm gonna get I would
- 6:32Speaker 2: give out a play on Vegas if she was, because
- 6:34Speaker 2: the line would probably be close to pick them here.
- 6:37Speaker 2: And you know, I always say when a team has
- 6:38Speaker 2: their star player coming back, especially if the team was
- 6:41Speaker 2: really doing well without her, then the team kind of
- 6:45Speaker 2: takes a step back a little bit. They kind of
- 6:46Speaker 2: get a little bit complacent, and it's kind of like
- 6:49Speaker 2: a chemistry shift again where she has to find her
- 6:51Speaker 2: way back. The team has to get used to playing
- 6:53Speaker 2: with her again. So if that was the case, I
- 6:55Speaker 2: would be fading Indiana here, and I still think it
- 6:57Speaker 2: might be a good spot to fade her when she
- 6:59Speaker 2: does come back. I just wish it was in this
- 7:01Speaker 2: game where they're coming off the Commissioner Cup win because
- 7:03Speaker 2: it would be this like confluence of situations that I
- 7:06Speaker 2: like to look for, But unfortunately we only have one
- 7:08Speaker 2: of those two situations. Vegas is up from one and
- 7:11Speaker 2: a half to four and a half, which I think
- 7:13Speaker 2: part of that move is because of the Caitlyn Clark thing.
- 7:15Speaker 2: Like I think the line initially came out expecting her
- 7:18Speaker 2: to be back in this game, and she isn't, which
- 7:20Speaker 2: is part of the reason why the line has moved
- 7:22Speaker 2: like that.
- 7:23Speaker 1: I still would lean in Las Vegas. I mean, it
- 7:25Speaker 1: still kind of.
- 7:25Speaker 2: Looks like a weird line right because both teams are
- 7:28Speaker 2: eight and eight, Like, why would you be laying points
- 7:30Speaker 2: on the road like this? Although the public probably knows
- 7:33Speaker 2: Caitlin Clark is still out, but they probably think pretty
- 7:35Speaker 2: highly of Indiana right now after what they've done recently.
- 7:38Speaker 2: So i' wing lean to Vegas, but that one's not
- 7:40Speaker 2: going to rise to the level of a play for me. Lanny,
- 7:43Speaker 2: thank you, thank you for creating the clips, man creating
- 7:47Speaker 2: the video for the intro. I wish I remember who
- 7:51Speaker 2: did the audio for the song because I want to
- 7:55Speaker 2: shout them out, and I forget which fan actually made
- 7:57Speaker 2: the song. But yes, thanks to everybody for helping me
- 8:00Speaker 2: create that intro. There. It's a great intro. It's like
- 8:03Speaker 2: a Laney edit every Better Off Dead episode.
- 8:06Speaker 1: Now Man La is at New York. Here the New
- 8:10Speaker 1: York Liberty.
- 8:11Speaker 2: They've been playing bad Man Bad stretch of games for
- 8:14Speaker 2: the Liberty. They've lost four or five even though they
- 8:16Speaker 2: are one of the best teams in the league. They're
- 8:19Speaker 2: coming up a pretty big game against Atlanta, so I
- 8:21Speaker 2: don't know if they're gonna suffer a hangover effect from
- 8:23Speaker 2: that or if they're gonna bounce back because they just
- 8:26Speaker 2: haven't been playing well, so it is possible they bounce back.
- 8:29Speaker 2: But they are returning for a four game road trip.
- 8:31Speaker 2: And you know, I like to say when teams return
- 8:33Speaker 2: on from road trips, a lot of times it's not
- 8:35Speaker 2: the greatest spot, and this was somewhat of a long
- 8:38Speaker 2: road trip that took them to the Pacific Coast. They
- 8:40Speaker 2: were away for four games, so it might not be
- 8:42Speaker 2: the greatest spot to jump in.
- 8:44Speaker 1: On the liberty here.
- 8:46Speaker 2: LA in this case is starting a road trip after
- 8:50Speaker 2: they came back home for one game and lost to
- 8:52Speaker 2: the Chicago Sky who are not very good. So starting
- 8:55Speaker 2: a road trip could be a little bit more of
- 8:57Speaker 2: a focus spot for LA. And by the way, this
- 8:59Speaker 2: is a kind of an old school matchup here. I
- 9:01Speaker 2: believe the first w NBA game ever was between LA
- 9:05Speaker 2: and New York and that was back when it was
- 9:08Speaker 2: Lisa Leslie against Rebecca lowbow Man, way back in the day.
- 9:12Speaker 2: I don't even think I can name anybody on either
- 9:14Speaker 2: team at this point. But the Liberty are down from
- 9:18Speaker 2: thirteen to ten and a half here, and the Liberty
- 9:20Speaker 2: is still without John kel Jones. I think is her
- 9:23Speaker 2: name or John Quell. I don't know how you pronounce
- 9:25Speaker 2: her name. She's one of their starters. I believe she's
- 9:28Speaker 2: the center. She's still out for a while, so they
- 9:30Speaker 2: are missing her. So that's I think been a little
- 9:33Speaker 2: bit of a factor in why the Liberty haven't been
- 9:34Speaker 2: playing that well. But they are playing worse than they
- 9:36Speaker 2: actually are right now. At some point they're going to
- 9:38Speaker 2: write the ship. I don't know if I would lay
- 9:40Speaker 2: that amount of points though in a return home spot.
- 9:42Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think I would.
- 9:45Speaker 2: Next game is actually the play I'm gonna recommend it
- 9:47Speaker 2: is the Seattle Storm minus two.
- 9:49Speaker 1: I think this is a good play. Man.
- 9:51Speaker 2: Now the line has moved, unfortunately, because we could have
- 9:54Speaker 2: gotten them one and a half point underdog at some
- 9:57Speaker 2: point and now they're a minus two favorite. But I
- 9:59Speaker 2: think it's stillkind of in that Pickham range. If you
- 10:01Speaker 2: want to go money line with it, I think that's
- 10:03Speaker 2: fine as well. You're basically picking them to win the game,
- 10:06Speaker 2: and on the surface, the spread looks misleading, right, because
- 10:09Speaker 2: how could you lay points on the road with a
- 10:11Speaker 2: ten and seventeen against an eleven and six team that's
- 10:14Speaker 2: seven and two at home. Right, Well, the osmakers are
- 10:16Speaker 2: telling you the Storm are actually better than maybe they appear,
- 10:21Speaker 2: which I think is accurate.
- 10:22Speaker 1: I would agree with that.
- 10:23Speaker 2: We don't have really any injury concerns here that are
- 10:26Speaker 2: significant in this game. So the oddsmakers are telling you
- 10:29Speaker 2: the Storm dude, they are a talented team. It's just
- 10:32Speaker 2: they got off to a slow start this year because
- 10:34Speaker 2: they have some.
- 10:34Speaker 1: New pieces to their team.
- 10:36Speaker 2: But they've been playing a lot better recently, as you
- 10:38Speaker 2: can see here. They won seven of their last nine
- 10:40Speaker 2: games I believe or whatever. Yeah, I think that's what
- 10:43Speaker 2: it is, right if I can count, right, And they're
- 10:45Speaker 2: coming off maybe the worst game of the season, man,
- 10:48Speaker 2: So I think this is gonna be a spot where
- 10:50Speaker 2: they're going to focus.
- 10:51Speaker 1: Man.
- 10:51Speaker 2: I mean, they started the road trip and lost eighty
- 10:54Speaker 2: four to fifty seven of Golden State and Golden State
- 10:57Speaker 2: expansion team. But they're actually starting to play pretty well.
- 11:00Speaker 2: But that's still an embarrassing loss for Seattle. Seattle was
- 11:03Speaker 2: a road favorite of four and a half points. And
- 11:05Speaker 2: they got absolutely massacred in this game, man, And they
- 11:09Speaker 2: this is an outlier game too. Seattle shot twenty seven
- 11:12Speaker 2: percent from the field in this game. I mean, that's
- 11:14Speaker 2: not gonna happen again. Man, that's very uncharacteristic of them.
- 11:18Speaker 2: So I think this game was just a total outlier.
- 11:20Speaker 2: I think Seattle's going to bounce back in a big
- 11:23Speaker 2: way after a horrific game like that. And meanwhile, Atlanta,
- 11:26Speaker 2: as I just mentioned, is coming off that New York
- 11:28Speaker 2: Liberty game where they beat the Liberty and pulled into
- 11:31Speaker 2: well almost pulled into a tie with them their half
- 11:33Speaker 2: game behind the Liberty. Huge win for the Dream at
- 11:37Speaker 2: home against one of the teams that's the best, that's
- 11:39Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the league. And they
- 11:41Speaker 2: had played the other best team in the league right
- 11:43Speaker 2: before that, playing Minnesota to within four points, so they
- 11:47Speaker 2: had two really big games. And that was an overtime
- 11:50Speaker 2: game too, So they took Minnesota to overtime and then
- 11:53Speaker 2: beat the Liberty. So they're coming off two big wins.
- 11:56Speaker 2: And let's just make it even more crazy than that,
- 11:58Speaker 2: they already won at Seattle earlier this year by seven,
- 12:02Speaker 2: So it's a little bit of a road revenge angle
- 12:04Speaker 2: for Seattle here as well.
- 12:05Speaker 1: So I think this is the spot, man.
- 12:07Speaker 2: I think this is the best WNBA spot and play
- 12:10Speaker 2: of the day.
- 12:10Speaker 1: And if you look at this game, Seattle.
- 12:12Speaker 2: Was beating Atlanta at Atlanta for most of this game here,
- 12:16Speaker 2: the majority of the game.
- 12:17Speaker 1: Seattle had a big lead.
- 12:18Speaker 2: They're up thirteen with five minutes to go in the
- 12:21Speaker 2: third quarter and wound up losing the game anyway.
- 12:25Speaker 1: Somehow they just imploded at the end of the game.
- 12:27Speaker 2: So Seattle actually had a stranglehold on that game too.
- 12:30Speaker 2: So I think Seattle is indeed the better team and
- 12:33Speaker 2: the way to look here. So I think that's a
- 12:35Speaker 2: good it's a good play, man, It's a good spot
- 12:37Speaker 2: to play Seattle. I'm gonna recommend that as a play.
- 12:40Speaker 1: That's right. What's up Andrew? Thanks for hanging out everybody.
- 12:44Speaker 2: And then we do have a Phoenix at Dallas. I mean,
- 12:46Speaker 2: this is these other games are just mismatches, man. I mean,
- 12:49Speaker 2: there's not a whole lot to say here. Dallas has
- 12:51Speaker 2: a lot of injuries right now too. Although Becker's is back,
- 12:55Speaker 2: she's not one of the injured players right now. Dallas
- 12:57Speaker 2: has actually won four of their last six game, so
- 13:00Speaker 2: they've actually started playing a bit better, but they are
- 13:02Speaker 2: kind of stepping up in class to face Phoenix here,
- 13:04Speaker 2: who is a lot better than I thought they were
- 13:06Speaker 2: at the beginning of the season. They've gotten a lot
- 13:08Speaker 2: of their players back. Phoenix, though, did just lose a
- 13:11Speaker 2: win streak, and it was in that Vegas game where
- 13:13Speaker 2: I gave out Vegas as a play on the show.
- 13:15Speaker 2: After Phoenix had scored one hundred points to two straight
- 13:18Speaker 2: games and had beaten the New York Liberty, so they
- 13:20Speaker 2: were riding high at that point. This loss could give
- 13:24Speaker 2: them a little bit of a hangover spot though, man,
- 13:26Speaker 2: Like when you lose a long wind streak like that,
- 13:28Speaker 2: a lot of times that can hang you over into
- 13:31Speaker 2: the next game. So I don't really love either team
- 13:33Speaker 2: in that game.
- 13:34Speaker 1: Man.
- 13:34Speaker 2: Phoenix has got all the way up from six to
- 13:36Speaker 2: twelve and a half now. I think that's due to
- 13:39Speaker 2: Dallas with a lot of injury concerns on their team
- 13:41Speaker 2: right now. Part of the reason why the line has
- 13:43Speaker 2: moved up to that degree. In the spot that Phoenix
- 13:46Speaker 2: is in, I mean, I would not be laying a
- 13:48Speaker 2: price like that on the road, but that's it's definitely
- 13:50Speaker 2: a stay away game, and then Washington at Minnesota. Of course,
- 13:53Speaker 2: we know Minnesota coming off that loss in the Commissioner
- 13:57Speaker 2: Cup Final, which, by the way, redpanned. I guess she
- 14:01Speaker 2: must have been the halftime halftime entertainment at that game.
- 14:05Speaker 2: And I've seen her before. I've seen her a bunch
- 14:07Speaker 2: of times live. She does a lot of the Celtics
- 14:10Speaker 2: halftime shows or the halftime shows at the Garden.
- 14:13Speaker 1: She did the March Madness Games that I was at
- 14:15Speaker 1: as well.
- 14:16Speaker 2: She's like a Chinese acrobat where she balances like bowls
- 14:21Speaker 2: and plates on her head while she's riding a unicycle
- 14:24Speaker 2: and she flips them up onto her head from her foot,
- 14:27Speaker 2: and I hear a lot of people saying, oh, she
- 14:29Speaker 2: makes all these mistakes all the time, and like, I
- 14:31Speaker 2: don't think so, man, because I've seen her like ten
- 14:33Speaker 2: times that she's never made a mistake when i've seen
- 14:35Speaker 2: her live. But in this case, she did fall off
- 14:38Speaker 2: the unicycle. So thankfully she is not seriously injured, and
- 14:43Speaker 2: I guess she broke her wrists. She's not out of
- 14:45Speaker 2: the hospital, So thoughts of prayers for Red pandom man.
- 14:49Speaker 2: She is actually really good at what she does, so
- 14:52Speaker 2: I don't know Yeah, why people always make fun of
- 14:54Speaker 2: her all the time. She does only have that one thing,
- 14:56Speaker 2: like that's her thing that she does, but she is
- 14:58Speaker 2: really good at it. Anyway, I think that happened during
- 15:02Speaker 2: that Commissioner's Cup game. Minnesota got embarrassed in this game, man,
- 15:06Speaker 2: So I could see this going both ways, right, Like,
- 15:08Speaker 2: you make that big game, it's a big emotional get
- 15:11Speaker 2: up game, and you lose the game. On the one hand,
- 15:13Speaker 2: it could hang you over a little bit. But on
- 15:15Speaker 2: the other hand, if you're a ten and a half
- 15:16Speaker 2: point favorite, you're supposed to win the game. You're facing
- 15:19Speaker 2: an Indiana team without their star player Caitlin Clark.
- 15:22Speaker 1: And you lose that game.
- 15:24Speaker 2: I don't know, man, it could maybe mean you're in
- 15:26Speaker 2: a bounce back spot coming off of that. Meanwhile, Washington
- 15:30Speaker 2: they're in a spot where they might focus as well,
- 15:32Speaker 2: because they were coming off a couple of big wins
- 15:33Speaker 2: from Minnesota Vegas and they're playing a Dallas team they
- 15:37Speaker 2: had already just beaten, and Dallas got a little bit
- 15:39Speaker 2: of revenge against them and beat them.
- 15:41Speaker 1: So Washington might show up in this game as well.
- 15:44Speaker 2: Minnesota down from twelve to eleven and a half, I'd
- 15:46Speaker 2: probably lean slightly to Washington in this game, not a
- 15:51Speaker 2: strong lean or anything like that at all. Plus Minnesota
- 15:54Speaker 2: is obviously the way better team, but you are asking
- 15:56Speaker 2: them to win by a huge margin, of course. And
- 15:59Speaker 2: the only other thing I will say, by the way,
- 16:00Speaker 2: is that the All Star determinations being based on voting
- 16:05Speaker 2: is ridiculous because we know the league basically has a
- 16:08Speaker 2: grudge against Caitlyn Clark for whatever reason, they don't like
- 16:11Speaker 2: her entering the league. She's really good. I think there's
- 16:14Speaker 2: a lot of jealousy going on there. A lot of
- 16:16Speaker 2: other teams are just physically like beating her up pretty
- 16:20Speaker 2: much and like, I don't know, assaulting her on the
- 16:23Speaker 2: court base. And she only came in ninth place in
- 16:26Speaker 2: voting at her position, even though she's already one of
- 16:29Speaker 2: the best players in the league in her second year.
- 16:32Speaker 2: So the All Star voting is just a sham man,
- 16:34Speaker 2: it's bullshit. But who cares about the WNBA anyway. I
- 16:38Speaker 2: just want to find some spots to try to make
- 16:40Speaker 2: some money. So anyway, Seattle is the play I'm given
- 16:44Speaker 2: out there.
- 16:45Speaker 1: MLB.
- 16:46Speaker 2: Let's try to get through this fast, man. I think
- 16:48Speaker 2: every one of these games today is a final game.
- 16:52Speaker 1: Of a series.
- 16:52Speaker 2: So there are no teams like starting a new series today.
- 16:56Speaker 2: I think every series is a continuation Minnesota at my Iami.
- 17:00Speaker 2: Minnesota finally got a win yesterday and broke Miami's lost
- 17:03Speaker 2: streak Minnesota with a two to one win yesterday, and
- 17:06Speaker 2: Minnesota used more of their bullpen yesterday coming into this game.
- 17:10Speaker 2: This game is really difficult for me to gauge man
- 17:12Speaker 2: with two really young pitchers who have a high ceiling.
- 17:16Speaker 2: They're both really good strikeout pictures with good stuff when
- 17:19Speaker 2: they're like at their best, but they've both had injury issues,
- 17:23Speaker 2: and I mean, we'll see what happens. David Festa is
- 17:26Speaker 2: starting from Minnesota. He's got a five point four ERA
- 17:29Speaker 2: and one point four to two whip this year, which
- 17:30Speaker 2: is not very good. Six point nine to road ERA
- 17:33Speaker 2: is even worse. But I mean, what are we gonna
- 17:36Speaker 2: get out of him? It's hard to say because he
- 17:38Speaker 2: gave up eight runs two starts ago, but then in
- 17:41Speaker 2: his last out he had a clean sheet, well kind
- 17:43Speaker 2: of clean. She had a shutout for five and two
- 17:45Speaker 2: thirds with six strikeouts, no walks, two hits, all out
- 17:48Speaker 2: at Detroit, which is not easy to do. I mean,
- 17:51Speaker 2: Detroit's good at home, so Festa, it's kind of all
- 17:54Speaker 2: over the place.
- 17:55Speaker 1: Man.
- 17:55Speaker 2: He had has really bad starts, and then he has
- 17:57Speaker 2: some pretty good starts in there, and he definitely has
- 17:59Speaker 2: good strikeout potential.
- 18:01Speaker 1: So what are we gonna get here?
- 18:03Speaker 2: He's stepping down in class to face a bad Miami offense.
- 18:06Speaker 2: He has fifteen at bats in his career against him.
- 18:09Speaker 2: They have no extra base hits, five strikeouts, one walk,
- 18:12Speaker 2: two hundred average of four to fifty ops. So festa,
- 18:16Speaker 2: given that he's coming off a good start, he might
- 18:18Speaker 2: have another good start here against a pretty bad offense.
- 18:20Speaker 1: Man.
- 18:20Speaker 2: He's gonna be opposed by Yuri Perez from Miami, who's
- 18:25Speaker 2: still a really young guy and a really tall guy.
- 18:27Speaker 1: It's six' eight on the.
- 18:29Speaker 2: Mound but his numbers have not been good this year
- 18:31Speaker 2: so far six point one to NINETY, ra one point FIVE.
- 18:34Speaker 1: Wit but he's only made four.
- 18:35Speaker 2: Starts he hasn't made five innings in any start, yet
- 18:38Speaker 2: although he's kind of limited the damage in every start
- 18:41Speaker 2: to the point where his team has won two of the.
- 18:43Speaker 1: Four but he's been walking too many guys.
- 18:46Speaker 2: MAN i, mean he gets a decent amount of, strikeouts
- 18:48Speaker 2: but a fourteen to end strike a walk ratio that's
- 18:51Speaker 2: not gonna cut. IT i, mean the walks are really
- 18:53Speaker 2: the major concern with him right. Now he just puts
- 18:56Speaker 2: too many guys on base via the free, pass via the.
- 18:59Speaker 2: WILDNESS i pointed out back when he was in the,
- 19:01Speaker 2: league he came into the league at a really young,
- 19:03Speaker 2: age at like twenty years old a couple of years,
- 19:05Speaker 2: ago and he had more than half a season With
- 19:08Speaker 2: miami and actually put up really good.
- 19:10Speaker 1: Numbers so he does have that.
- 19:11Speaker 2: Potential but he got, injured missed all of last, year
- 19:14Speaker 2: and now he's trying to make the comeback, here so
- 19:17Speaker 2: we'll see if he can do. It minnesota only has
- 19:19Speaker 2: four at bats against him in they're zero for four
- 19:21Speaker 2: with a strikeout in a, walk so again we'll see
- 19:24Speaker 2: what what either of those pitchers can do. There but
- 19:27Speaker 2: like when those pictures are at their, best it might
- 19:31Speaker 2: make sense to kind of start looking towards an under
- 19:33Speaker 2: in this. Game total zef for mate and a half
- 19:35Speaker 2: to eight sixty nine percent of tickets eighty seven percent
- 19:37Speaker 2: of the.
- 19:37Speaker 1: Cash on the, over, THOUGH.
- 19:40Speaker 2: I, MEAN i wouldn't want to risk it with both
- 19:42Speaker 2: pictures being really really, dicey but we will, see and
- 19:44Speaker 2: it looks like the strongest market read is actually On,
- 19:46Speaker 2: miami even THOUGH i don't THINK i would do that,
- 19:50Speaker 2: either because a lot of times when a team loses
- 19:51Speaker 2: a win streak like that and can hang them over
- 19:54Speaker 2: and they don't do well in the next. Game fifty,
- 19:56Speaker 2: tickets fifty four percent of the cash On, minnesota with
- 20:00Speaker 2: the line dropping from minus one to seventeen of minus
- 20:02Speaker 2: one oh nine On. Minnesota So minnesota road favorite maybe
- 20:06Speaker 2: not deservingly not deserving of a road favorite line, there
- 20:11Speaker 2: line is moving in the direction Of miami. AGAIN i
- 20:13Speaker 2: think maybe the professional better is just thinking there is
- 20:16Speaker 2: some value to be had Getting miami at a little
- 20:18Speaker 2: bit of an underdog price at home and what seems
- 20:21Speaker 2: to be kind of a total toss up.
- 20:23Speaker 1: Of a game.
- 20:23Speaker 2: There i'm not sure THAT i would want to deal
- 20:25Speaker 2: with an under, either With miami's bullpen not being very,
- 20:28Speaker 2: Good minnesota's bullpen struggling recently as, well and having used
- 20:33Speaker 2: some of their better relief pitchers. Yesterday don't love It
- 20:36Speaker 2: houston At Colorado. Houston it is, possible, then in a
- 20:40Speaker 2: spot like, This houston Overlooks colorado man because they've won
- 20:43Speaker 2: both games in the series so, far and they have
- 20:45Speaker 2: a big series against The dodgers over the weekends starting,
- 20:48Speaker 2: tomorrow So houston might be looking ahead to The dodgers
- 20:51Speaker 2: a little bit and not really give a shit about
- 20:53Speaker 2: a final game Against. Colorado these last games this series
- 20:56Speaker 2: are kind of tricky. Man houston also does not have
- 21:00Speaker 2: exactly their best pitcher on the, Mound Brandon, walter but
- 21:02Speaker 2: he has been good three point three FOUR, era one
- 21:06Speaker 2: point zero four. Whip he's been worse on the road
- 21:09Speaker 2: four point seven to SIX era on the, road and
- 21:11Speaker 2: he is having to pitch of course field. Here but
- 21:13Speaker 2: the one thing that might help him is that he
- 21:16Speaker 2: is more of a ground ball. Pitcher he's induced more
- 21:18Speaker 2: ground balls than fly balls this, year which obviously is
- 21:21Speaker 2: gonna help in a home run type of park like Course,
- 21:24Speaker 2: field so he might actually not be in the worst environment.
- 21:27Speaker 2: Here but he's been pretty good overall this season with
- 21:30Speaker 2: a crazy thirty to two strike out walk, Ratio but
- 21:33Speaker 2: the home run ball actually has hurt him this. Year
- 21:35Speaker 2: he's allowed five home runs all In june over the
- 21:38Speaker 2: last four. Starts despite, him we had twenty five to
- 21:41Speaker 2: one strike out walk ratio over the same, span so
- 21:43Speaker 2: his command has been really, good but he's given up
- 21:45Speaker 2: some hard, contacts so the home run ball has actually
- 21:49Speaker 2: been an, issue even though he's not allowed that many fly,
- 21:51Speaker 2: balls so usually you don't see stats like.
- 21:54Speaker 1: That but overall he has pitched.
- 21:56Speaker 2: Well he had one really bad starting Against anaheimery gave
- 21:58Speaker 2: up seven, runs though even that start he had a
- 22:01Speaker 2: six to one strike a walk. Ratio see even, that
- 22:04Speaker 2: there were some positives to take away from that. One
- 22:06Speaker 2: and he had a really nice start against The cubs
- 22:08Speaker 2: last time out of are a good, Offense so he's
- 22:10Speaker 2: actually stepping down in class to face a pretty Terrible colorado.
- 22:15Speaker 2: Offense colorado Only farmer has ever seen him, before and
- 22:18Speaker 2: he's zero for two with a walk off of.
- 22:20Speaker 1: Him so Maybe walter is in line to do decently.
- 22:24Speaker 2: Here he's up Against Kyle, freeland who is not the
- 22:27Speaker 2: worst pitcher For, colorado but he is probably the lesser
- 22:31Speaker 2: of these two. Pitchers five point five SIX era one point.
- 22:34Speaker 2: Six whip hasn't gotten it together at home this. Year
- 22:37Speaker 2: man seven point one to ONE era at Course field
- 22:40Speaker 2: this year not. Great In, june had an eleven of
- 22:44Speaker 2: five strike a walk ratio in three, starts four point
- 22:46Speaker 2: nine to six, era and he missed some.
- 22:48Speaker 1: Time he just has not been very good. Overall. Man
- 22:52Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot else to.
- 22:53Speaker 2: Say houston has hit him fairly well in seventy one
- 22:56Speaker 2: career at bats ten to seven strike a walk, ratio
- 22:59Speaker 2: three home, runs a lot of the Damages Christian. Walker
- 23:02Speaker 2: if you want to look for some player, Props walker
- 23:04Speaker 2: is very familiar With freeland and his twelve to thirty
- 23:07Speaker 2: five of them with two home runs five walks for a.
- 23:10Speaker 2: Strikeout So walker living up to his name there Against
- 23:14Speaker 2: freeland with five walks. There freeland overalls a lot of
- 23:17Speaker 2: two eighty two average eight fifty three, ops so his
- 23:20Speaker 2: number is not good Against, houston AND i always recommend
- 23:23Speaker 2: hits plus runs plus RBIs for the player props. There
- 23:27Speaker 2: houston very, public but they've gone way up from minus
- 23:30Speaker 2: one sixty five to minus one ninety, three so it
- 23:32Speaker 2: looks like the actual money is also coming in On.
- 23:35Speaker 2: HOUSTON i wouldn't want to risk it in a spot
- 23:37Speaker 2: like this and with a number like, this but they
- 23:40Speaker 2: do have seventy seven percent of tickets in ninety one
- 23:41Speaker 2: percent of the, cash so it does look like the
- 23:43Speaker 2: money is indeed coming in On. Houston and that one
- 23:47Speaker 2: even despite the. Situation but we'll see about. That Detroit
- 23:51Speaker 2: washington played a double header. Yesterday detroit had a bulp
- 23:54Speaker 2: end game in the first, game but they didn't use
- 23:56Speaker 2: that many pitchers in that game and they won the
- 23:58Speaker 2: game pretty, easily and Then washington won the second, game
- 24:01Speaker 2: won the night game With gore out Pitching Jack, flaherty
- 24:05Speaker 2: who just is not.
- 24:05Speaker 1: That very good.
- 24:07Speaker 2: Recently what are we gonna get in this? GAME i don't, know,
- 24:10Speaker 2: MAN i, mean my first instinct is kind of, well
- 24:13Speaker 2: they because both teams played a doubleheader, yesterday so some
- 24:16Speaker 2: bullpen usage happened, yesterday although the bullpen usage was actually
- 24:20Speaker 2: not as much As milwaukee and The, mets Which i'll
- 24:22Speaker 2: talk about in a little. Bit so maybe the bullpen's
- 24:27Speaker 2: are still intact enough that they'll do okay. Here But
- 24:30Speaker 2: washington's bullpen is not a very good. Bullpend detroit's has
- 24:33Speaker 2: actually been a little bit worse recently, too even though
- 24:35Speaker 2: they're really good at the beginning of the. Season and
- 24:38Speaker 2: we Have Dietrich enz pitching For, detroit and he really
- 24:42Speaker 2: confused me in his first, start, man Because i'm, like
- 24:44Speaker 2: who is this? Guy he's thirty, four he's, like barely
- 24:47Speaker 2: pitched ever in the. Majors and he comes out and
- 24:50Speaker 2: he pitches a starters workload basically five, innings one hit
- 24:53Speaker 2: aloud against The. A'S i, mean, Okay, like is he
- 24:57Speaker 2: gonna do that? AGAIN i have NO idea had four,
- 25:01Speaker 2: strikeouts two walks in that. Game it was a good
- 25:03Speaker 2: start for, Him But i'm not ready to trust him
- 25:07Speaker 2: after one good.
- 25:07Speaker 1: Start.
- 25:08Speaker 2: Man, again he's pitched only in twenty seventeen and twenty
- 25:10Speaker 2: twenty one in the, majors and he made one start besides. That,
- 25:14Speaker 2: ever way back in twenty. Seventeen his career numbers are actually.
- 25:18Speaker 2: Decent he actually was fairly good out of the bullpen
- 25:20Speaker 2: For tampa when he did pitch in twenty twenty. One
- 25:23Speaker 2: BUT i still don't know how we could trust a
- 25:24Speaker 2: guy who's thirty four and just hasn't made it in the. Majors,
- 25:28Speaker 2: Man it's almost like one of those movie like plot, lines,
- 25:33Speaker 2: right we have some old guy he's finally getting a
- 25:35Speaker 2: shot to be back in the. Majors, MAN i don't.
- 25:38Speaker 2: KNOW i don't know if he's gonna be able to continue.
- 25:40Speaker 2: This but the one advantage he does have is That
- 25:42Speaker 2: washington has never seen him, before AND i guess That
- 25:45Speaker 2: washington is a week, offense so Maybe ends will do well.
- 25:47Speaker 1: AGAIN i don't.
- 25:48Speaker 2: Know he's up Against Jake, irvin who is easier to
- 25:51Speaker 2: handicap because we have a lot of numbers on. Him
- 25:54Speaker 2: four point seven to THREE, era one point three whip.
- 25:56Speaker 1: This year not very.
- 25:57Speaker 2: Good he's been better at home, though three point five
- 26:00Speaker 2: nine HOME, era but he hasn't been pitching well recently
- 26:03Speaker 2: in the month Of june of seven point ONE era
- 26:06Speaker 2: twenty four to ten strike a walk, ratio decent strikeout,
- 26:09Speaker 2: rape but way too many. Walks last time out At,
- 26:12Speaker 2: anaheim he gave up eight earned runs nine hits in
- 26:15Speaker 2: four and a, third four walks as well unbelievable amount
- 26:19Speaker 2: of guys on, base and gave up three home runs
- 26:21Speaker 2: in that. Game five strikeouts was pretty, good but he
- 26:24Speaker 2: got lit up in that. Game So irvin not in
- 26:27Speaker 2: good form here right. Now Against, detroit his numbers aren't
- 26:30Speaker 2: very good, either although it's a pretty small twenty three
- 26:32Speaker 2: at bat sample.
- 26:33Speaker 1: Size he's giving up a couple.
- 26:34Speaker 2: Of home runs to McKinstry And veerling four to two
- 26:38Speaker 2: strike at walk, ratio three h four average allowed to
- 26:41Speaker 2: nine to twenty five oh, Ps SO i don't think
- 26:42Speaker 2: we could Trust Jake irvin here. Either but the money
- 26:45Speaker 2: is coming in In washington yet again As detroit was.
- 26:49Speaker 2: Yesterday they're public again eighty one percent of the, tickets
- 26:52Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the cash coming in On, Washington
- 26:54Speaker 2: detroit down for minus one fifty five to minus one.
- 26:57Speaker 2: Forty so the Market reid is saying the money is
- 26:59Speaker 2: come in A. Washington so, AGAIN i think professional betters
- 27:04Speaker 2: they just don't Trust. Ends and at least With, IRVIN
- 27:07Speaker 2: i know his numbers are bad Against, detroit but he
- 27:09Speaker 2: and he is the more familiar, pitcher but he is
- 27:11Speaker 2: at least the more established pitcher as. WELL i Think
- 27:14Speaker 2: ends is just a total wildcard. Here and then as
- 27:17Speaker 2: far As detroit is, concerned they Have cleveland up. Next
- 27:22Speaker 2: cleveland not playing well this, year but it is still
- 27:24Speaker 2: a divisional, game so Maybe detroit will kind of be
- 27:28Speaker 2: looking ahead slightly to That cleveland. SERIES i don't, know,
- 27:31Speaker 2: man so it's not ANYTHING i want to get involved. In.
- 27:33Speaker 1: THOUGH A yankees At. Toronto toronto on.
- 27:36Speaker 2: The verge of a sweep of The yankees here In
- 27:38Speaker 2: toronto pulled into a tie with The yankees atop The
- 27:41Speaker 2: Al east with that win, Yesterday toronto four straight, wins
- 27:45Speaker 2: three wins in a row against The, yankees scoring double
- 27:48Speaker 2: digit runs in the last. Two toronto almost blew it.
- 27:51Speaker 2: Yesterday they had a seven to nothing lead early in that.
- 27:53Speaker 2: Game they almost blew the. GAME i think all of
- 27:55Speaker 2: a sudden it was like eight to six or. Something i'm,
- 27:58Speaker 2: like Oh, god they're gonna blow. This, because of, course
- 28:00Speaker 2: as A Red sox, fan i just want to see
- 28:02Speaker 2: The yankees. Lose it did wind up, happening but, man
- 28:05Speaker 2: it was a crazy high scoring. Game neither starting pitcher did.
- 28:09Speaker 2: Well The Blue jays used more of their relief pitchers
- 28:13Speaker 2: than The yankees, did so both bullpen's not really in
- 28:15Speaker 2: great shape after the last couple of, games two really
- 28:18Speaker 2: high scoring, games so we have some pretty overworked bullpens.
- 28:21Speaker 2: Here Clark schmid is going to be the starter for The.
- 28:24Speaker 2: Yankees three point NINE, era one point oh six whip
- 28:28Speaker 2: pretty good numbers on the, season although he's been a
- 28:30Speaker 2: little bit more beatable on the road with a three
- 28:33Speaker 2: point seven to one ROAD, Era but he has been
- 28:36Speaker 2: pitching well In june five starts at one point nine
- 28:39Speaker 2: to five and thirty to, eight strike a, walk raceio
- 28:42Speaker 2: have The yankees only won two of those five starts
- 28:45Speaker 2: he pitched. Well he went at least six innings in
- 28:47Speaker 2: the last four Starts, SCHMIDT i, mean not a whole
- 28:50Speaker 2: lot else to. Say, man he's been pitching well, recently
- 28:52Speaker 2: and he's actually had four shutout performances in the last six,
- 28:56Speaker 2: games so he is definitely a good form right. Now Against,
- 28:59Speaker 2: toronto he has some mediocre numbers in sixty seven at bats.
- 29:02Speaker 1: Sixteen to, nine strike a walk ration on not great.
- 29:05Speaker 2: Again too many, walks but a two fifty four average
- 29:08Speaker 2: not very. High seven to ninety ops a little bit.
- 29:11Speaker 1: High.
- 29:11Speaker 2: Though he's allowed three Different Blue jay's hitters to home
- 29:15Speaker 2: home er off of. Him so it's a little bit
- 29:18Speaker 2: of a mixed bag With. Schmidt BUT i would kind of,
- 29:20Speaker 2: again when you see something like, THAT i kind of
- 29:22Speaker 2: lean towards, well he's in good recent form right, now
- 29:24Speaker 2: SO i think that's kind of the thing that kind
- 29:27Speaker 2: of is the deciding. Factor he's pitching well right, now
- 29:29Speaker 2: SO i think probably that's gonna continue unless we see.
- 29:32Speaker 2: Otherwise he's up Against Chris, bassett who has not been
- 29:35Speaker 2: as good. Recently four point two ninety ra now one
- 29:38Speaker 2: point three to six. Whip his numbers of skyrocketed, recently
- 29:41Speaker 2: but he has been good at home two point six
- 29:43Speaker 2: home THE, ira and his numbers really went way up
- 29:47Speaker 2: just because of one horrific start against The Red sox
- 29:49Speaker 2: last time, out where you give up eight earned runs
- 29:51Speaker 2: in two, innings which was pretty. SURPRISING i, mean he
- 29:54Speaker 2: usually doesn't do that, bad even against The Red. Sox
- 29:58Speaker 2: Red sox do have a decent. Offense Man bassett got
- 30:01Speaker 2: lit up in that game four walks to three, strikeouts
- 30:04Speaker 2: had a really bad, Game but he was pitching pretty
- 30:06Speaker 2: well prior to, that after he struggled at the end Of.
- 30:09Speaker 1: May most Of june he was pretty. GOOD i went.
- 30:13Speaker 2: Six plus innings in all of the other four starts In.
- 30:15Speaker 2: June toronto won three of the four behind, him and
- 30:18Speaker 2: he gave up one four to three and one ear
- 30:21Speaker 2: and run in each of. Them so he was pitching
- 30:22Speaker 2: better twenty four to ten strike a walk ratio In.
- 30:25Speaker 2: June so is he gonna bounce back? HERE i don't,
- 30:28Speaker 2: know because he's facing a really Good yankee lineup who
- 30:31Speaker 2: were very familiarly familiar with him one hundred and five at. Bats,
- 30:34Speaker 2: again we have a mixed bag With bassett's stats as,
- 30:36Speaker 2: well twenty nine to twelve strike a walk ratio career
- 30:39Speaker 2: against The, yankees two fifty seven, average pretty, low but
- 30:42Speaker 2: a somewhat high seven to sixty two oh, ps and
- 30:45Speaker 2: four Different yankees hitters have home runs off.
- 30:47Speaker 1: Him so, again it's a little bit of a mixed.
- 30:51Speaker 1: Bag hard to.
- 30:52Speaker 2: GAGE i think probably gotta lean to The yankees in this, one.
- 30:56Speaker 2: MAN i, MEAN i Think toronto's bullpend is a little
- 30:59Speaker 2: bit more over worked in the yankees bullpen. IS i Think, schmidt,
- 31:02Speaker 2: uh he's in way better form Than bassett is right
- 31:06Speaker 2: now at, least SO i think that's probably the way
- 31:07Speaker 2: you lean In yankees trying to avoid the sweep. HERE
- 31:11Speaker 2: i think there's a little bit more motivation on the
- 31:13Speaker 2: side of The yankees. There but you are, jumping you,
- 31:16Speaker 2: know in front of that momentum train, there which sometimes
- 31:19Speaker 2: it is difficult to do in. Baseball sometimes you don't
- 31:22Speaker 2: want to jump in front of streaks like, that and
- 31:24Speaker 2: you're having to jump in front of those two. Streaks
- 31:26Speaker 2: if you do, that, uh sixty tickets eighty eight percent
- 31:30Speaker 2: of the cash on The. Yankees the money is coming
- 31:32Speaker 2: in on The yankees up for minus one twenty to
- 31:34Speaker 2: minus one twenty. Three but then on the other, hand
- 31:36Speaker 2: you're always paying too much for The, yankees, man even
- 31:38Speaker 2: though The yankees have lost every game in the, series
- 31:41Speaker 2: you're still paying a price up for The yankees as
- 31:43Speaker 2: a road favorite, there even though the starting pitching matchup
- 31:47Speaker 2: is kind of like eh, like usually you shouldn't have
- 31:51Speaker 2: to pay a price like that for The yankees unless
- 31:52Speaker 2: it's one of their like top tier starters on. Them
- 31:55Speaker 2: miulend there Where schmidt isn't, really but he is pitching
- 31:57Speaker 2: well right, now SO i do still lean to The
- 32:00Speaker 2: yankees though with that matchup in that. Spot milwaukee at The,
- 32:03Speaker 2: mets AS i, said doubleheader, yesterday team split As milwaukee
- 32:08Speaker 2: Won game one seven to, two which was the GAME
- 32:10Speaker 2: i gave out on the show that was a, winner
- 32:13Speaker 2: and THEN i Mentioned, Mizierowski, MAN i thought that it
- 32:15Speaker 2: was too much of a price to pay for Mis
- 32:17Speaker 2: zierowski in game, two and he didn't have a great
- 32:19Speaker 2: game for, once and he lost against The mets The
- 32:22Speaker 2: mets one game, two seven to, three and finally ended
- 32:25Speaker 2: that lost.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Streak, now a lot of times when the team ends a.
- 32:28Speaker 2: Low streak like, that that will carry over as as
- 32:31Speaker 2: positive momentum into the next. Game so now The, mets you,
- 32:34Speaker 2: know are not In pride month. Anymore they've, won and
- 32:37Speaker 2: maybe that's gonna send them on a win, streak, man
- 32:39Speaker 2: because that was a. Win that's gonna stop that like
- 32:42Speaker 2: losing momentum for The mets, potentially even THOUGH i know
- 32:45Speaker 2: they did win a couple other games during this bad.
- 32:47Speaker 2: Stretch but they might be able to win again here
- 32:49Speaker 2: because they're Facing Jose, kintana WHO i think is pitching
- 32:53Speaker 2: above his pay grade right.
- 32:54Speaker 1: NOW i, mean he's he's just kind of an OLD i,
- 32:57Speaker 1: mean he.
- 32:57Speaker 2: Is a, workhorse but he's just kind of a control
- 33:00Speaker 2: sure doesn't have great. Stuff he does have a three
- 33:02Speaker 2: point THREE era this, year which is, good but a
- 33:04Speaker 2: one point four to. Whip he's putting way too many
- 33:07Speaker 2: guys on. Base he has been good on the road,
- 33:09Speaker 2: though one point three to ONE. Era and the other
- 33:11Speaker 2: thing is he is familiar with The mets because he
- 33:14Speaker 2: did pitch for The mets last, Year SO i Think
- 33:17Speaker 2: kintana this might be his first time facing The mets
- 33:20Speaker 2: since he's been away from them and on a new,
- 33:23Speaker 2: team so he might actually get a little bit pumped
- 33:24Speaker 2: up to face The, mets and he is at least
- 33:27Speaker 2: familiar with pitching in the.
- 33:29Speaker 1: Stadium because he pitched there for the last couple of.
- 33:31Speaker 2: Seasons so there are some reasons why Maybe kintana might
- 33:34Speaker 2: actually PITCH o in this. Game by the, way the
- 33:37Speaker 2: one THING i forgot to reiterate yesterday AND i gave
- 33:40Speaker 2: out That milwaukee play one more, time is that that
- 33:42Speaker 2: was a revenge spot For milwaukee too in that first,
- 33:45Speaker 2: game because The mets Eliminated milwaukee from the playoffs last,
- 33:48Speaker 2: year So milwaukee was gonna have a little bit of
- 33:50Speaker 2: an extra incentive to try to. Win and maybe that
- 33:52Speaker 2: incentive will still be there here because do you truly get.
- 33:55Speaker 1: Revenge if you lose the? Series, Still i'm not sure
- 33:58Speaker 1: that you.
- 33:58Speaker 2: Do you won one, game but you gotta win the
- 34:01Speaker 2: series against him to get like some real actual, revenge,
- 34:04Speaker 2: Right so maybe there is a little bit of motivation
- 34:06Speaker 2: on the side of The.
- 34:07Speaker 1: Brewers but Is kintana good? ENOUGH i don't.
- 34:10Speaker 2: Know. Man in the month Of junie he had a
- 34:12Speaker 2: really bad seventeen to sixteen strike out walk. Ratio that's
- 34:15Speaker 2: not gonna get it. Done way too many walks walking
- 34:18Speaker 2: at least three in four of the five. Starts that's not.
- 34:22Speaker 2: Good four point one to five y ray not great,
- 34:25Speaker 2: either even Though milwaukee did win four of those five.
- 34:28Speaker 2: Starts he limited the damage, somehow but you're walking that
- 34:32Speaker 2: many guys, eventually it's gonna catch up to you, man
- 34:34Speaker 2: especially against A mets team that on their good days
- 34:38Speaker 2: they can. Hit they do have a good, offense but
- 34:40Speaker 2: they haven't done well Against kintana in the. Past seventy
- 34:43Speaker 2: four at bats or twenty two to five strike at
- 34:46Speaker 2: walk ratio two sixteen average five to ninety. Ops So
- 34:50Speaker 2: kintana actually has good matchup numbers against The, mets so
- 34:53Speaker 2: there are some reasons why he might actually pitch.
- 34:55Speaker 1: Decently.
- 34:56Speaker 2: Here he's up Against David, peterson Who i'm not a
- 34:59Speaker 2: fan because he keeps over you, know performing based on
- 35:03Speaker 2: what his other numbers. Say he has a three point THREE,
- 35:05Speaker 2: era obviously, good but a one point two eight whip,
- 35:08Speaker 2: again he puts too many guys on. Base he's been
- 35:11Speaker 2: better at home two point two to TWO era here at,
- 35:14Speaker 2: home so decent sign For, peterson but it looks like
- 35:18Speaker 2: he is starting to regress LIKE i thought that he.
- 35:20Speaker 2: Would in the month Of, june he had a four
- 35:23Speaker 2: point five to five, era which is not very, good
- 35:25Speaker 2: twenty four to eleven strangle walk ratio over the last two,
- 35:28Speaker 2: starts both on the, road one Against philly which is,
- 35:31Speaker 2: difficult but one Against pittsburgh which is not that. Difficult
- 35:34Speaker 2: he had three walks in each of. Them he actually
- 35:36Speaker 2: has issued three walks in three straight, starts and then
- 35:39Speaker 2: those last two he gave up five earned runs in
- 35:41Speaker 2: each and didn't even make it five innings in. Either
- 35:43Speaker 2: so he is out of form right, NOW i would,
- 35:46Speaker 2: say with nine walks over the last three, starts LIKE i,
- 35:48Speaker 2: said in twelve strikeouts over that same, span so his
- 35:51Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio really bad in the last three. Starts
- 35:55Speaker 2: SO i Think peterson is out of form right. Now
- 35:58Speaker 2: against The, mets his numbers are okay Or milwaukee excuse
- 36:00Speaker 2: against The, brewers as numbers are. Okay in fifty three
- 36:04Speaker 2: at BATS h, two forty five, average seven to twenty five,
- 36:07Speaker 2: ops seventeen to five strail walk, ratio mediocre. Numbers Reese
- 36:11Speaker 2: hoskins if you want some player props seven for, sixteen three,
- 36:14Speaker 2: doubles two on the, runs two walks off of, him
- 36:17Speaker 2: and four. Strikeouts so matchup, wise it looks Like kintana
- 36:21Speaker 2: actually does have a little bit of an edge in
- 36:24Speaker 2: the matchup. THERE i don't really want to do, it,
- 36:26Speaker 2: Uh and the money is coming in on The mets
- 36:28Speaker 2: BECAUSE i Think, KITANA i, mean both pitchers have really
- 36:31Speaker 2: just been walking way too many guys, Seriously SO i
- 36:33Speaker 2: think probably the best way to look at this game
- 36:35Speaker 2: is actually towards the. Over The mets are up for
- 36:38Speaker 2: minus one to fifteen one fifty two fifty, tickets seventy
- 36:41Speaker 2: two percent of the cash on The. Mets maybe that
- 36:43Speaker 2: MOMENTUM i will continue from winning the last game last,
- 36:47Speaker 2: night BUT i think the over makes more sense with
- 36:50Speaker 2: both pitchers potentially in for it here because they've been
- 36:53Speaker 2: walking too many. Guys their eras are both, misleading like
- 36:57Speaker 2: both pictures are not as good as the era's look
- 36:59Speaker 2: the total sitting at, eight both offenses are at least
- 37:03Speaker 2: pretty familiar with these opposing, pitchers and seventy four percent
- 37:06Speaker 2: ticket seventy eight percent of the cash coming in on the.
- 37:08Speaker 2: Over mets bullpen has been struggling recently and they used
- 37:12Speaker 2: a lot of, it and The milwaukee bullpen's is not that,
- 37:15Speaker 2: Great so there are a lot of components for the
- 37:18Speaker 2: over in that, game and that might be the best
- 37:19Speaker 2: way to lean in that. Game anaheim At. Atlanta atlanta
- 37:23Speaker 2: got the win. Yesterday after losing the first game of
- 37:25Speaker 2: the series in shutout fashion four, nothing they bounce back
- 37:29Speaker 2: with an eight to three win. Yesterday so a nice
- 37:31Speaker 2: win For atlanta. Yesterday and they lit Up anaheim's. Bullpen
- 37:35Speaker 2: kikuchi actually pitched pretty well yesterday And, ANAHEIM'S i, Mean
- 37:39Speaker 2: anaheim's bullpen is just, awful, Man so that's something you
- 37:42Speaker 2: got to take into. ACCOUNT i don't think either bullpen
- 37:44Speaker 2: is that good. Here Jose soriano's gonna pitch For anaheim.
- 37:48Speaker 2: Today three point nine to ninety ra one point four
- 37:51Speaker 2: to seven. Whips his whip is way too, high is?
- 37:53Speaker 1: He H ray is?
- 37:54Speaker 2: Good soriano has had some really good strikeout stuff at
- 37:57Speaker 2: times this, year but he has been wild as. Well
- 38:00Speaker 2: on the road is a lot better than it is
- 38:02Speaker 2: at home, though two point seven to eight road. Era
- 38:05Speaker 2: he is coming off of a really bad start Against
- 38:07Speaker 2: washington and they're not a good. Offense and he got
- 38:10Speaker 2: lit up for eight runs Against, washington but that might
- 38:13Speaker 2: be a little bit of a. BLIP i, mean last
- 38:15Speaker 2: time he did bad against The Red sox giving up seven.
- 38:18Speaker 2: Runs he bounced back really AND i said the twelve,
- 38:20Speaker 2: strikeout seven inning performance against The, A's so maybe this
- 38:24Speaker 2: is just one bad. Start it's not really enough to
- 38:26Speaker 2: say that he's in bad. FORM i don't. Think even
- 38:29Speaker 2: though he has walked five guys in those last couple,
- 38:31Speaker 2: outings he has struck out, fourteen which isn't really that.
- 38:34Speaker 2: Bad a thirty five to eleven strikeout walk ration in
- 38:37Speaker 2: the month Of june and twenty eight to thirty and
- 38:39Speaker 2: he was pitched way too many, walks but a very
- 38:41Speaker 2: high strikeout rate as, well five point FOUR era in
- 38:44Speaker 2: the month Of. June just because of those two really bad,
- 38:47Speaker 2: starts but his team won the other three starts that he,
- 38:50Speaker 2: had going at least six and two thirds in the other,
- 38:52Speaker 2: three giving up one or zero earned runs at all
- 38:56Speaker 2: three of those against The. Braves he has good numbers
- 38:59Speaker 2: small sample, side though fourteen at bats he's on him
- 39:01Speaker 2: to a two fourteen, average six seventy five, ohps four
- 39:04Speaker 2: to four strike a walk ratio is not very, good
- 39:06Speaker 2: But sorianum he at least is good on the. Road
- 39:10Speaker 2: might bounce back from his last, start and he has
- 39:13Speaker 2: good numbers Against atlanta and he's up Against Bryce, elder
- 39:16Speaker 2: WHO i don't think is a very good. Pitcher five
- 39:18Speaker 2: point eight TWO era one point four to seven. Whip
- 39:20Speaker 2: that's not. Good he's been even worse at home six
- 39:23Speaker 2: point six' ONE era at home hasn't been gonna get,
- 39:26Speaker 2: done and for, HIM i would say he is in
- 39:29Speaker 2: bad for. Him in the month Of, june over five,
- 39:31Speaker 2: Starts atlanta lost four of those. Starts they've lost six
- 39:35Speaker 2: of his last. Seven he had an eight point two
- 39:37Speaker 2: FIVE era in the month Of june twenty four to
- 39:40Speaker 2: eleven strike a walk ratio way too many. Walks he
- 39:43Speaker 2: had one really good start with twelve strike guts in
- 39:46Speaker 2: all the other starts not very. Good he gave up
- 39:48Speaker 2: three on runs and all the other ones walked three
- 39:51Speaker 2: and three of the four walked three or more in
- 39:54Speaker 2: three of the. Four last time out Against philly nine and,
- 39:57Speaker 2: runs allowed three on, runs four, walks eight hits in two.
- 40:00Speaker 2: Winnings got absolutely trashed in that game and the two
- 40:04Speaker 2: games before. That he gave up four and runs in
- 40:06Speaker 2: three to third against a Bad colorado, offense not At
- 40:09Speaker 2: Coors field, either and five earned runs on ten hits Against.
- 40:12Speaker 2: Miami so he is definitely not a good form right
- 40:15Speaker 2: now up Against, anaheim though they really have almost no
- 40:19Speaker 2: history against some so let is zero for, seven often
- 40:22Speaker 2: with three strikeouts and two. Walks other than, That anaheim
- 40:26Speaker 2: has never seen him. Before some Maybe elder of a
- 40:29Speaker 2: little bit of an edge just because the opposing offense
- 40:31Speaker 2: hasn't seen him. Before BUT i gotta lean To anaheim
- 40:35Speaker 2: in this, game and, well probably in the first five innings,
- 40:37Speaker 2: though BECAUSE i don't think you want any part of
- 40:39Speaker 2: The anaeims bullpen. Here SO i probably leaned To anaheim
- 40:42Speaker 2: on the money line as an underdog in the first
- 40:45Speaker 2: five innings BECAUSE i Think elder is just trash and
- 40:48Speaker 2: he's been really bad. Recently And soriano there are some
- 40:51Speaker 2: numbers that indicate that he might do well in this particular,
- 40:54Speaker 2: start and he's been in at least form that isn't
- 40:57Speaker 2: as bad As elder as. Recently, SORRY i, Mean elder's
- 41:01Speaker 2: bad form has been sustained over the last three. Starts
- 41:04Speaker 2: sorrian only is one bad start, recently well one in
- 41:08Speaker 2: his last, outing had three good starts prior to. That
- 41:10Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the tickets and seventy percent of
- 41:13Speaker 2: the cash coming in In, atlanta but the line has
- 41:15Speaker 2: dropped from minus one fifty two so minus one forty.
- 41:18Speaker 2: Five SO i don't know if we believe that cash
- 41:20Speaker 2: percentage of it's actually On atlanta there and, AGAIN i
- 41:25Speaker 2: guess the one thing that you could argue For, atlanta,
- 41:27Speaker 2: though is That atlanta is better than the record would,
- 41:29Speaker 2: indicate and the and The angels are worse than the
- 41:32Speaker 2: record would. Indicate but in this, MATCHUP i just don't
- 41:35Speaker 2: really see. IT i really do not Like Bryce Elder
- 41:38Speaker 2: cleveland at The Chicago.
- 41:39Speaker 1: Cubs The.
- 41:40Speaker 2: Cubs this could be a spot where he maybe it
- 41:43Speaker 2: makes sense to fade The cubs man because they're on
- 41:45Speaker 2: the verge of sweep In. Cleveland cleveland had a three
- 41:48Speaker 2: nothing lead early in the, Game, yes so they wound
- 41:50Speaker 2: up losing five to. Four definitely a brutal way to
- 41:53Speaker 2: lose man on the road against a Good cub. Steam
- 41:56Speaker 2: but the thing about The cubs situation here is that
- 41:58Speaker 2: they're on the verge of sweeping A cleveland. Team they
- 42:00Speaker 2: might not pay attention To cleveland after beating them, twice
- 42:04Speaker 2: and The cubs have kind of bigger things on the.
- 42:06Speaker 2: Horizon they have a series Against Saint louis starting, tomorrow
- 42:10Speaker 2: that's a pretty big divisional. Matchup saint louis not that
- 42:12Speaker 2: far behind them in the, division SO i think The
- 42:15Speaker 2: cubs might have a little bit of a look At,
- 42:17Speaker 2: spider and The cubs used a little bit more of
- 42:18Speaker 2: their bullpen in yesterday's game That cleveland. DID i think
- 42:22Speaker 2: both bullpens are a little bit mediocre al though probably
- 42:25Speaker 2: The cubs bullpen is a little bit. Better but in this,
- 42:27Speaker 2: SPOT i don't know IF i love The. Cubs Luis
- 42:30Speaker 2: ortiz pitching For cleveland NORMALLY i don't really like, him
- 42:35Speaker 2: although it says he's out, Now so wait a, minute
- 42:37Speaker 2: what is he?
- 42:37Speaker 1: Out let me? Look is he not pitching? Anymore hold? On,
- 42:42Speaker 1: uh what are we looking at? Here, yep my. Apologies
- 42:47Speaker 1: Louis ortiz is not pitching.
- 42:48Speaker 2: Now he's, hurt so that is gonna change his handicap
- 42:51Speaker 2: is now we're looking At Joey cantillo is gonna make
- 42:54Speaker 2: the start For.
- 42:56Speaker 1: Cleveland so hold on a.
- 42:57Speaker 2: Minute let's let's switch it up, here BECAUSE i was
- 42:59Speaker 2: gonna Handicapped ortez LIKE i already looked at it earlier
- 43:02Speaker 2: in the, day AND i Handicapped.
- 43:04Speaker 1: Ortiz but he's, hurt so we're.
- 43:05Speaker 2: Gonna Get, cantillo who looks like he's not even on
- 43:09Speaker 2: the active.
- 43:09Speaker 1: Roster here can we find? Him is he in the?
- 43:12Speaker 1: Miners hold? On let me see IF i can find him? Here?
- 43:15Speaker 2: Uh?
- 43:17Speaker 1: Actually? Can is there a? Search? Yet there is a?
- 43:19Speaker 1: Search all, right let's find, him, Man there he, is all.
- 43:23Speaker 2: Right Joey cantillo has a three point eight ONE era
- 43:28Speaker 2: this year one point three. Eight BUT i think he's
- 43:30Speaker 2: mostly come out of the bulp and he's been better
- 43:32Speaker 2: on the road one point three to five road E. Ra.
- 43:36Speaker 2: Again he's been making short starts, though so that's one
- 43:39Speaker 2: thing you have to worry.
- 43:39Speaker 1: About is that this might be a bullpend game For.
- 43:42Speaker 2: Cleveland cantello did make some starts last, year let me,
- 43:45Speaker 2: see although he only went deep a couple of, times
- 43:49Speaker 2: So i'm probably gonna say he's probably not gonna go
- 43:51Speaker 2: deep in one of these. Starts he did get a
- 43:53Speaker 2: start his workload a bit last, year but this, YEAR i,
- 43:57Speaker 2: mean he hasn't really been doing, that SO i think
- 43:59Speaker 2: we're probably only gonna get like two to three.
- 44:01Speaker 1: Innings out of, him would be my guess in this.
- 44:03Speaker 2: Game so he's having to get thrown into the fire late,
- 44:06Speaker 2: man because it's a late, change As ortiz looks like
- 44:09Speaker 2: he's gonna have to go on the injured list or
- 44:11Speaker 2: something For cantello to come up and make the. Start
- 44:15Speaker 2: SO i don't know if we could Trust cantillo here.
- 44:19Speaker 2: OVERALL i, MEAN i don't even know what else to
- 44:22Speaker 2: say about him. Overall thirty six to fourteen strike a
- 44:24Speaker 2: walk ratio definitely way too high of a walk. Rate
- 44:27Speaker 2: he has a really high strikeout rate, though so he
- 44:29Speaker 2: has a good strikeout, potential but his walk rate is,
- 44:32Speaker 2: high so he is. Wild he's still pretty young at
- 44:35Speaker 2: twenty five years, old so he does have some potential.
- 44:39Speaker 1: Versus The. Cubs they basically haven't seen.
- 44:43Speaker 2: Him tucker is two for three off, him, Though Kyle
- 44:46Speaker 2: tucker with ONE, rbi So tucker is sitting pretty.
- 44:49Speaker 1: Well but other than, that The cubs are pretty.
- 44:50Speaker 2: Unfamiliar With, cleveland so at least maybe there's a little
- 44:53Speaker 2: bit of an edge To cantillo for that. Reason and
- 44:56Speaker 2: The cubs Have Kate horton. Pitching he hasn't been very
- 44:59Speaker 2: good four point eighty one point four to four.
- 45:01Speaker 1: Whip not good.
- 45:03Speaker 2: Numbers he's been better at home three point three to
- 45:05Speaker 2: eight home the Ra he's not been in good for him, recently,
- 45:10Speaker 2: though with a seventeen to ten strike a walk ratio
- 45:12Speaker 2: In june five point four to SEVENTY. Ra The cubs
- 45:15Speaker 2: have lost three of his last four. Starts that's not.
- 45:17Speaker 2: Good over those, starts he gave up four to three
- 45:20Speaker 2: and seven or runs and three of those four, starts
- 45:23Speaker 2: the three losses last two, starts he didn't even make
- 45:27Speaker 2: it five innings in either of, them so he has
- 45:29Speaker 2: not been pitching.
- 45:29Speaker 1: Well So, Horton horton might hear a who in this
- 45:34Speaker 1: side in this, game and he might hear a.
- 45:36Speaker 2: BOO i don't, know, man with The cubs home, crowd
- 45:39Speaker 2: But cleveland has never Seen horton, before so maybe THAT'S
- 45:43Speaker 2: i guess something For. Horton and he is still young as,
- 45:45Speaker 2: Well BUT i don't, know. MAN i THINK i might
- 45:48Speaker 2: Prefer cantillo a little. Bit horton does not have strikeout
- 45:50Speaker 2: stuff Like cantillo, does as he only has thirty three
- 45:53Speaker 2: strikeouts and forty five innings, pitch and he's allowed more
- 45:56Speaker 2: hits and innings. Pitched walk number is not, great but,
- 46:00Speaker 2: okay fourteen. WALKS i would lean To cleveland in this, game,
- 46:04Speaker 2: Man and it looks like the money is coming in that,
- 46:07Speaker 2: Way cubs down for fifty one thirty. Six sixty nine
- 46:10Speaker 2: percent of the tickets are on The, cubs but fifty
- 46:13Speaker 2: the ash commantia On.
- 46:14Speaker 1: Cleveland DO i want to do?
- 46:17Speaker 2: IT i, MEAN i don't know we're gonna get a
- 46:18Speaker 2: bullpen game out Of cleveland here, though. Man so it's
- 46:21Speaker 2: a little bit difficult to. Gauge and what do we
- 46:23Speaker 2: have for the bullpen statistics? HERE i don't have it
- 46:26Speaker 2: up right. NOW i usually do have it, up or
- 46:28Speaker 2: at least SOMETIMES i. Do let me, see we Have
- 46:33Speaker 2: cubs actually have the second best bullpen he irra in
- 46:35Speaker 2: baseball right, now three point two. One so that's a
- 46:39Speaker 2: little bit, of you, know a detractor if you want
- 46:42Speaker 2: to Play cleveland. Here cleveland has a three point nine
- 46:44Speaker 2: to seven bullpeny ra on the. Season So cubs definitely
- 46:48Speaker 2: do have the better, bullpen and they got a little
- 46:49Speaker 2: bit more used yesterday with some of their better relief
- 46:52Speaker 2: pitchers being used yesterday in a close win for The cubs,
- 46:55Speaker 2: yesterday but the spot again not exactly great for. Them
- 47:00Speaker 2: i'm not gonna elevate this to a, play BUT i
- 47:02Speaker 2: do Like cleveland in that. Game, man it's definitely a,
- 47:07Speaker 2: risk though we'll see What cantillo can.
- 47:09Speaker 1: Do arizona Against San.
- 47:10Speaker 2: Francisco San francisco finally got a win in the series,
- 47:13Speaker 2: yesterday six to five Over.
- 47:15Speaker 1: Arizona.
- 47:16Speaker 2: Yesterday San francisco used a lot of their bullpend yesterday,
- 47:18Speaker 2: though So San francisco they have a way better bullpen
- 47:21Speaker 2: Than arizona, does but they used a lot of it.
- 47:23Speaker 2: Yesterday so the bullpen situation kind of evens, out and
- 47:26Speaker 2: then you got to figure out what's gonna go on
- 47:27Speaker 2: with the starting. Pitching Robbie ray is pitching For San
- 47:30Speaker 2: francisco two point seven to FIVE era one point one
- 47:33Speaker 2: to five. Whip ray obviously having a good, SEASON i mean,
- 47:37Speaker 2: unexpectedly so he's a pitching really well and it's. Continued
- 47:40Speaker 2: three point five FOUR era over five starts In, june
- 47:43Speaker 2: not allign more than three or on runs in any of,
- 47:45Speaker 2: them thirty two to eight strike a walk, ratio So
- 47:48Speaker 2: ray is continuing to pitch quite. Well arizona does hit him, well,
- 47:52Speaker 2: though in forty four at bats two ninety five, average
- 47:55Speaker 2: nine to thirteen oh, ps fifteen to five strike a
- 47:58Speaker 2: walk ratio is not that bad for and at least
- 48:01Speaker 2: the other thing you can say About ray is the
- 48:02Speaker 2: one time he Faced arizona this, season he didn't do
- 48:05Speaker 2: that badly on six. Innings you gave up three, runs nine,
- 48:09Speaker 2: strikeouts three, Walks so he had an okay start.
- 48:12Speaker 1: At home against.
- 48:12Speaker 2: Him but he is going on the road here To
- 48:15Speaker 2: Chase field or, whatever which is not an easy place to.
- 48:17Speaker 2: Pitch he is going up Against Brandon, fott who was
- 48:20Speaker 2: not having a good season For. Arizona five point three
- 48:23Speaker 2: EIGHTY ra one point three went not. Good he has
- 48:26Speaker 2: been better at home though a four point two home.
- 48:29Speaker 2: Era fot hasn't been great, recently with a six point
- 48:34Speaker 2: two SIX era In. June he's just not been going
- 48:38Speaker 2: deep into.
- 48:38Speaker 1: Games. Man he's been very inefficient with his.
- 48:40Speaker 2: Pitches does have a pretty good twenty three to six
- 48:43Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio over the month Of, june But
- 48:46Speaker 2: arizona lost his last three. Starts he didn't go more
- 48:49Speaker 2: than five innings in any of those. Starts kind of
- 48:52Speaker 2: a mixed bag for. Him he's been at least keeping
- 48:54Speaker 2: his team in the games, though allowing no more than
- 48:56Speaker 2: four and runs in any of the last four starts
- 48:59Speaker 2: and two in three out of the.
- 49:01Speaker 1: Four but he was facing some bad.
- 49:03Speaker 2: OFFENSES i Mean, toronto, Well toronto's, Okay colorado's bat although
- 49:07Speaker 2: that was At, Coursefield miami is. Bad San francisco is
- 49:11Speaker 2: not a very good offense, Either but he actually struggled
- 49:14Speaker 2: At San, francisco which that was the same game That ray.
- 49:17Speaker 2: PITCHED i think he was matched up Against ray in that,
- 49:19Speaker 2: game And fot only went four innings this is in Mid,
- 49:22Speaker 2: may and gave up four, runs three, walks three, strikeouts six.
- 49:26Speaker 2: Hits So fott actually had the significantly worst start Than
- 49:29Speaker 2: ray did in that. Game fott has bad numbers Against
- 49:33Speaker 2: San francisco in thirty at, bats five, walks only three,
- 49:36Speaker 2: strikeouts three sixty seven average one thousand and ninety oh.
- 49:39Speaker 2: Ps SO i don't know that we could Trust fot
- 49:41Speaker 2: in this. GAME i Think ray probably the more trustworthy
- 49:44Speaker 2: of the two pitchers here, Man but.
- 49:46Speaker 1: The money seems to be.
- 49:48Speaker 2: Disagreeing although the line flipped from plus one to four
- 49:51Speaker 2: to minus one nineteen On San, francisco so they moved
- 49:53Speaker 2: to a. Favorite but sixty six percent of the tickets
- 49:56Speaker 2: are On San, francisco went only fifty six percent of the,
- 49:58Speaker 2: cash so the cash percent looks like it's coming.
- 50:01Speaker 1: Back the other.
- 50:02Speaker 2: Way even though the line moved Towards San, francisco money
- 50:05Speaker 2: looks like it's coming back the other way On arizona
- 50:07Speaker 2: based on the cash. Percentage So i'm gonna just this
- 50:11Speaker 2: is a stay away from me as. Well White sox
- 50:14Speaker 2: are at The dodgers. Here The, DODGERS i forget what
- 50:18Speaker 2: they have up, next because The dodgers are on the
- 50:20Speaker 2: verge of a sweep as, well BUT i think they
- 50:21Speaker 2: have some insignificant series up.
- 50:23Speaker 1: Next well maybe. Not they're Playing, houston.
- 50:26Speaker 2: Which is a little bit OF i think A World
- 50:28Speaker 2: series revenge from a few years, ago so that is
- 50:31Speaker 2: kind of a big. Series, Actually houston has been playing pretty,
- 50:33Speaker 2: well so maybe The dodgers are gonna overlook The White
- 50:36Speaker 2: sox here as they're on the verge of a.
- 50:38Speaker 1: Sweep dodgers had to hold on.
- 50:40Speaker 2: For the win, yesterday though five to Four kershaw did
- 50:44Speaker 2: okay kept them in the. Game White sox kind of
- 50:47Speaker 2: saved their bullpen a bit in the game, yesterday although
- 50:50Speaker 2: both teams really did. So both bullpens have a decent
- 50:53Speaker 2: rest situation coming into this, game But dodgers have a
- 50:56Speaker 2: better bullpen than The White. Sox to The White sox
- 50:58Speaker 2: bullpen is just. Bad Aaron savali is pitching for The White.
- 51:02Speaker 2: Sox he hasn't been good this season four point seven
- 51:04Speaker 2: to FORTY era one point five whip and since uh
- 51:08Speaker 2: The White sox got, him he hasn't been very good.
- 51:10Speaker 2: Either he has a what is That he's walked nine
- 51:14Speaker 2: guys and struck out, ten so that's not a good.
- 51:16Speaker 2: Sign in those three starts with The White, sox they've
- 51:21Speaker 2: lost all three of, them although he's gotten absolutely no run,
- 51:23Speaker 2: support but he allowed two runs in five innings Against,
- 51:26Speaker 2: texas five runs and seven innings Against, toronto and then
- 51:29Speaker 2: only went four innings last time out Against San, francisco
- 51:32Speaker 2: held him the one, run but he walked four, Guys
- 51:34Speaker 2: So savlle doesn't look like he's very trustworthy right. Now
- 51:38Speaker 2: he's in bad on the road five point nine TWO.
- 51:40Speaker 2: Era on the, road he's having to face a really
- 51:42Speaker 2: Good dodger lineup who have okay numbers against him in
- 51:45Speaker 2: forty three at bats to seventy nine average and eight
- 51:48Speaker 2: thirty eight, ops So savalle probably doesn't match up too well.
- 51:52Speaker 2: Here he's up Against Dustin, may, though who has not
- 51:55Speaker 2: been pitching well. Either four point six EIGHTY ra one
- 51:58Speaker 2: point three to seven whip not putting up good. Numbers
- 52:00Speaker 2: he's been better at home, though three point three EIGHTY
- 52:03Speaker 2: ra significantly better home THE ra like three runs lower
- 52:07Speaker 2: than it is on the. Road but overall he has
- 52:10Speaker 2: not been pitching well. Man even in his home starts
- 52:12Speaker 2: this month have kind of been okay this month five
- 52:15Speaker 2: point six seven E ra Or, JUNE i should say
- 52:17Speaker 2: five point six seven E ra and five starts seventeen
- 52:21Speaker 2: to fifteen strike a walk ratio that is not gonna
- 52:23Speaker 2: get it. Done, Man he's walking way too many, batters
- 52:27Speaker 2: just a, terrible terrible strikeout walk. Ratio SO i don't
- 52:29Speaker 2: Trust may. Either he is stepping down in class and
- 52:32Speaker 2: facing a really Weak White sox offense though only three
- 52:36Speaker 2: of The White Socks i've ever seen him. Before they're
- 52:38Speaker 2: only two for ten off in. Lifetime rojas has a
- 52:41Speaker 2: double and AN rbi against. Him they have two, strikeouts no,
- 52:44Speaker 2: walks two hundred average five hundred.
- 52:46Speaker 1: Ohps So may probably is the way to look in this.
- 52:51Speaker 2: GAME i, mean it's a probably a bad situation for
- 52:55Speaker 2: The dodgers, though just because it might be a look
- 52:56Speaker 2: at d. Spot BUT i, mean then the matchup is
- 53:00Speaker 2: definitely in favor of The. DODGERS i, mean they have
- 53:01Speaker 2: every advantage. HERE i think they have a starting pitching,
- 53:04Speaker 2: edge even Though may is, terrible they have a bullpen,
- 53:06Speaker 2: edge and they have obviously a huge hitting edge. Here
- 53:09Speaker 2: they're up down for minus two eighty five to minus
- 53:11Speaker 2: two to seventy, five ninety four percent of, tickets ninety
- 53:14Speaker 2: seven percent of the. Cash don't know exactly what you
- 53:18Speaker 2: would want to do with this, game other THAN i,
- 53:21Speaker 2: MEAN i THINK i could actually see this game going, over,
- 53:24Speaker 2: man BECAUSE i don't trust either pitcher ninety two percent of,
- 53:27Speaker 2: tickets ninety nine percent of the cash on the overall
- 53:28Speaker 2: though it's dropped from nine juice to the over to.
- 53:30Speaker 1: Nine BUT i.
- 53:32Speaker 2: Could see some runs maybe being scored in this game
- 53:34Speaker 2: just because neither pitcher is in good. Form, Man so
- 53:38Speaker 2: maybe that's the better way to look at. This maybe
- 53:39Speaker 2: you could Go dodgers over their team. TOTAL i guess
- 53:44Speaker 2: expecting that they'll get To, Savali you're gonna have to
- 53:47Speaker 2: lay a bit of a number on.
- 53:48Speaker 1: That they'll probably like.
- 53:50Speaker 2: Six you probably need them to score six seven runs
- 53:53Speaker 2: in the game to do.
- 53:54Speaker 1: That, nancy what's? Up thanks for hanging?
- 53:56Speaker 2: Out oh, well thank YOU i love most of THE nds.
- 54:01Speaker 2: PEOPLE a few of them not so, much but you
- 54:05Speaker 2: and some of the good people in, There, yes. Definitely
- 54:08Speaker 2: SO nds is a competing with me right. NOW i
- 54:10Speaker 2: Guess i'm probably gonna be. On jose's shown a little
- 54:13Speaker 2: bit as. Well by the, way the Morning, dump we're
- 54:15Speaker 2: gonna take a Shit Kansas City. Seattle oh, YEAH i
- 54:19Speaker 2: have a baseball play and it's in this, game and
- 54:21Speaker 2: it's gonna be. UNDER i told you it's. Boring under
- 54:24Speaker 2: four in the first five. INNINGS i saw out there
- 54:26Speaker 2: AT i think FanDuel maybe in mass at minus one.
- 54:29Speaker 2: Eighteen so the numbers are a little bit all over the.
- 54:32Speaker 2: Place so it's kind of like pick your, poison you.
- 54:34Speaker 2: KNOW i don't personally like to go under three and
- 54:36Speaker 2: a half in the first five, innings but if you
- 54:38Speaker 2: can find an under fod a decent, PRICE i think
- 54:40Speaker 2: it is worth it. HERE i think this pitching matchup
- 54:42Speaker 2: is pretty conducive to an. Under AND i just don't
- 54:45Speaker 2: want to deal with the bullpens because we've seen some
- 54:47Speaker 2: bullpen usage in the series between these two, Teams Kansas
- 54:51Speaker 2: city And. Seattle but we're looking At Kansas city offense
- 54:54Speaker 2: that's very. Weak seattle's, Offense, yeah they have some good.
- 54:57Speaker 2: Hitters they're kind of a mid, offense medio. Offense and
- 55:01Speaker 2: AGAIN i like both starting pitchers. Here we haven't seen
- 55:04Speaker 2: a lot of scoring in This yeries in. GENERAL i,
- 55:06Speaker 2: mean we did see a game get to eight and
- 55:08Speaker 2: then to, nine, though and yesterday.
- 55:10Speaker 1: Was a very low scoring.
- 55:11Speaker 2: Game but part of the REASON i don't want to
- 55:13Speaker 2: go deal with the bullpens here is because we saw
- 55:16Speaker 2: some of the better relievers come in for both teams,
- 55:19Speaker 2: yesterday especially on The seattle, side to finish off the game.
- 55:22Speaker 2: Yesterday but we're looking at the starting. PITCHING i kind
- 55:24Speaker 2: of like this. Man Seth lugo for The royals continues
- 55:28Speaker 2: to bitch. Well EVEN i know the advanced analytics guys Hate.
- 55:30Speaker 2: Lugo they keep talking about how he's gonna, regress but
- 55:33Speaker 2: he's got a two point seven to FOR era this, year.
- 55:36Speaker 1: One point zero eight. Whip he's continuing to do.
- 55:38Speaker 2: Well is the ray on the road is not as
- 55:40Speaker 2: good as it is at, home but it's still low
- 55:42Speaker 2: three point one to NINE. Era we have a pitcher
- 55:44Speaker 2: friendly park here In. Seattle, yeah he walked five guys
- 55:48Speaker 2: last time, up but that was a little bit, uncharacteristic
- 55:51Speaker 2: and he still shut out The dodgers for five and two,
- 55:53Speaker 2: thirds So i'm not gonna exactly say he's in bad.
- 55:56Speaker 2: Form and overall In june one point two six the
- 55:59Speaker 2: rad he won to eleven strike aut walk. Ratio his
- 56:02Speaker 2: walk number again was a little bit, high but he
- 56:05Speaker 2: allowed very few hits sixteen and twenty eight and two.
- 56:08Speaker 2: Thirds hasn't allowed a home run in four straight. Starts
- 56:11Speaker 2: over those last four, starts he allowed zero in one
- 56:13Speaker 2: and run at all four two in the start prior to,
- 56:17Speaker 2: That so really Good june for. HIM i would say
- 56:19Speaker 2: he is in good for him right. Now his strikeout
- 56:21Speaker 2: rate has been high the last few starts as, well
- 56:24Speaker 2: striking out at least seven and three straight starts against The.
- 56:27Speaker 2: Mariners they don't have a whole lot of history against,
- 56:30Speaker 2: Him they're not that familiar With, lugo and in eighteen
- 56:33Speaker 2: at bats they have a two twenty two average and
- 56:35Speaker 2: five seventy eight ohps five to two strike out walk.
- 56:37Speaker 2: Racials So lugo has done well against The mariners and
- 56:41Speaker 2: they're not very familiar with, them and he's up Against
- 56:43Speaker 2: brian wo who you, KNOW i like. Woo he's one
- 56:45Speaker 2: of the best pitchers on The mariners two.
- 56:48Speaker 1: Point nine to THREE, era a point nine to SEVEN.
- 56:51Speaker 2: WHIP i, mean he's one of the better pitchers in
- 56:53Speaker 2: baseball really two point zero eight home Y, ra so
- 56:56Speaker 2: he's really good in this picture friendly park at home
- 56:59Speaker 2: he's in good as, well with a three point one
- 57:01Speaker 2: NINE era in the month Of june of thirty three
- 57:03Speaker 2: to eight strikeout walk ratio and striking out at least
- 57:08Speaker 2: six in all but one of those starts and nine
- 57:10Speaker 2: a piece in the last two. Outings last three outings
- 57:13Speaker 2: he allowed zero two and zero earned runs in those.
- 57:16Speaker 2: Three he's facing a really Weak Kansas city offense and
- 57:19Speaker 2: they're not that familiar with. Him they only have nine
- 57:21Speaker 2: at bats against, him and they have four, strikeouts one,
- 57:24Speaker 2: walk only one hit from firm and they have a
- 57:28Speaker 2: one to eleven average and three eleven ops off. Him
- 57:31Speaker 2: SO i think the starting pitching matchup is good for
- 57:33Speaker 2: the under. Here both starting pitchers are in good form right.
- 57:36Speaker 2: Now they both have good numbers on the season pitcher friendly.
- 57:39Speaker 2: Ballpark one really weak offense on the side Of Kansas,
- 57:43Speaker 2: city and the starting pitchers both have good matchup numbers as.
- 57:47Speaker 2: Well and they're both good in, general So i'm not
- 57:50Speaker 2: gonna agree with the analytics guys On lugo, here and
- 57:53Speaker 2: hopefully we're we wind up being right at least at least,
- 57:56Speaker 2: enough at least right enough to get this one under
- 57:59Speaker 2: the total in the first five.
- 58:00Speaker 1: Innings that's gonna do, it, Man, zach what's? Up?
- 58:03Speaker 2: Man neither team to score three like in the whole,
- 58:07Speaker 2: game that would worry. Me, man that would definitely worry,
- 58:10Speaker 2: me especially if it's gonna be a low scoring game
- 58:12Speaker 2: and it might go too extra. INNINGS i don't like.
- 58:14Speaker 2: That And seattle used a lot of their bullpen, yesterday
- 58:17Speaker 2: SO i am a little bit worried about.
- 58:18Speaker 1: That later in the. Game that's gonna do, it.
- 58:21Speaker 2: MAN i plays one more time for W Nba seattle
- 58:23Speaker 2: minus two and another game Involving seattle in, Baseball Royals
- 58:28Speaker 2: mariners under in the first five. Innings if you can
- 58:30Speaker 2: get a four under the, four that's gonna do. It
- 58:33Speaker 2: learn to tode On, Twitter give send go dot. Com
- 58:36Speaker 2: Slash Towering toad is still. Up if you really want
- 58:38Speaker 2: to help me out that, way you can tip me
- 58:41Speaker 2: On twitter as. Well Better Off dead is On, instagram
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- 58:48Speaker 2: a lot else to say It on the patreon dot
- 58:50Speaker 2: com Slash Tower, game you still want to go check.
- 58:52Speaker 2: Out if you still want to subscribe To Tower, game
- 58:54Speaker 2: you will get all the bonus content that is still out.
- 58:56Speaker 1: There don't know if the show is going to come
- 58:58Speaker 1: back in any form or.
- 58:59Speaker 2: Not and covered In yuke is MY yuk channel on,
- 59:03Speaker 2: YouTube WHICH i am starting to upload EVERYTHING i upload To,
- 59:06Speaker 2: Twitter i'm gonna double upload it over to, YouTube WHICH
- 59:10Speaker 2: i should have been doing all. Along AND i am
- 59:12Speaker 2: gonna start A patreon which is gonna be a learned
- 59:14Speaker 2: to town and most of the benefits are gonna Be yuke.
- 59:18Speaker 2: RELATED i, think at least for. Now there's gonna be
- 59:20Speaker 2: A spotify stream Or SPOTIFY rss feed with all of
- 59:24Speaker 2: MY yuk stuff in audio, form so if people want,
- 59:28Speaker 2: that that's gonna be coming, Soon so check all that.
- 59:31Speaker 2: Out let's have a good lead into The july fourth. Weekend,
- 59:36Speaker 2: Man let's have. Fun Happy. Thursday thanks for hanging out.
- 59:39Speaker 1: Guys, peace