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Episode 43 - 5/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 43 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
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Everyone? Happy Tuesday?
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Another day here in the arena guys, and we got a lot to get to
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on today's pod. I have a 7 pack of sweats for
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you. That's right, count them up
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123-4567. I usually have a six pack, but
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today is a special day because today is opening day for the
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WNBA. That's right.
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Now don't laugh, don't roll your eyes.
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WNBA is a great money making opportunity and I'm going to get
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into it a little bit later. But I'll just tell you now,
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there's really not much public. Now I'm wondering if you know,
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obviously Caitlin Clark and the buzz she's generating after her
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incredible run in Iowa, you're seeing stadiums get sold out.
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It's becoming more of a public sport.
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But you compare that to NFL, any other of the big major sports,
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it's not even close. So one thing I like to do when
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it comes to WNBA is look at line movement because it's mostly
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respected money and wise guys or wise gals betting WNBA.
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So therefore those sharp moves are very meaningful.
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But luckily for us, we have the help of rhythm and Rhythm, who
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sponsors this pod and does a great job of powering the POD
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with their projections across most of the major sports.
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And don't worry, at some point they'll have them all.
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I know they're working hard on that, but they do have WNBA.
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They just added golf recently. So we have AWNBA play for
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tonight with a great rhythm edge.
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So I'll tell you about that in the at the basically at the end
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of the pod. But getting back to our
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wheelhouse, here we have four Major League Baseball bets
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they'll talk about on the pod today, one NBA side as well as
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one NHL. I'm going to call it a principal
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play and I'll kind of get to get that later and tell you why it's
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maybe not the sharpest play in the world.
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There's maybe you know kind of a couple things we like, but the
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way this series has been shaping up so far and it's a good angle
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to go right back to the well with this particular play here
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for tonight. So 7 pack, 4MLB1NBA1NHL1 WNBA.
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Now looking back to our last night guys, we started off our
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week on a winning note. We grinded out a three and two
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day plus 0.25 units. So quarter of a unit hey, I'll
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take it. Anything in the green.
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Had a big win there with the Seattle Mariners.
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OK C absolute textbook play. It was both a rhythm suggested
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bet as well as a juice reel Robo Jackson play.
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So if you don't know Robo Jackson, he's our buddy.
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He's our AI bot who basically Combs over the data and then
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suggests 2 bets each day that come out at noon Eastern Time.
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Both landed on OK C and OK C They're down at the half.
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They came roaring back. SGA was absolutely awesome.
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Chet Holmgren hit a big three there, so OKC came through.
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Remember, they're only getting 47% bets, but 70% money.
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And that reverse line moving their favor plus 2 1/2 down to
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like plus 1 1/2 + 1. So it's great to see OKC come
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through and then shut out to Kevin Newman.
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No, not Newman on Seinfeld, but Kevin Newman, who went four for
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five last night and won the game for us.
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The D backs, the Snakes. They had a lead late, they
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coughed it up bottom of the ninth, they came back and won
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the game. So it's great to see Good night
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in Major League Baseball. Now the losers were the Brewers,
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unfortunately, who I couldn't believe it.
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Lost to the Pirates last night. And then my guy, Stan Coven.
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Come on, man. Come on, man.
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Over 1 1/2 shots on goal. He had gone over that number at
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pretty much every game all postseason last night.
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He laid a goose egg. Zero shots on goal.
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And then we did have the Nationals game, but that was
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rained out be, the way guys 3 and 2 + 0.25 units a winning
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night. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling and turn that winning night into a winning streak.
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Hopefully. So to start off the pod here
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guys, let's do it the way we always do.
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I want to start off with Major League Baseball.
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So first, but on the board. That kind of really jumped out
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to me and it looks gross, but it's sharp as a tack, man.
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I cut my finger putting in this play on my app earlier today,
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but looking at this game for tonight, it is the Cleveland
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Guardians and the Texas Rangers. Now the Guardians coming in 26
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and 16. They won the opener last night,
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7 to nothing. Pretty much of A snoozer there.
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They cashed easily as a -, 115 Rd. favorite rematch for
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tonight, The Guardians. They're going to go with Ben
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Lively. He's one and two of the 2.63
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ERA. The Rangers, who are 22 and 21
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on a four-game losing streak. They're going to go with Jack
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Leiter, who's O&O with a 12.91 ERA.
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So the numbers don't look great, but this is what really
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interesting game to me, because it seems like the obvious play
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is Cleveland, right? They have the better record.
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You know Jack Leiter's got this ridiculous ERA 12.91.
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How do you not take the Guardians at basically a pick em
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price this game open at basically a pick em around -1 O
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5 -, 110. Both sides 65% of the bets are
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going Cleveland saying hey take the better team getting
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basically a pick em price or even a little bit of plus money.
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Yet despite 2/3 of bets on Cleveland, the lines going to
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Texas, Texas went from -110 up to -120.
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That would be a classic reverse line move when the betting line
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goes in the opposite direction or away from the popular side
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toward the up, excuse me, toward the unpopular side.
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And then also you look at the bet splits here again only 35%
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Texas, yet the lines going in their direction.
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If only 1/3 of bets are on the Rangers, why is the line going
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in their direction? It makes no sense.
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Well, it makes sense of you. Kind of kind of just deduced
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from this bet percentage and line movement that the smart
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money is on Texas even though the public is on Cleveland.
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Now we do have a good system match here with Texas if you
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look at favourites off a loss who have a winning record.
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So I called the you know winning favorite off a loss system
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match. Texas is still one game above
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above 500. That system is 81 and 4166% with
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a 12% ROI. Also Texas coral to betting
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value or not coral to betting value but a a value play as a
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non division favorite. Lack of familiarity benefiting
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quote UN quote. The better team I want to bank
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on. The Rangers bats hopefully
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coming to life tonight. They're hitting 253 versus only
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236 for Cleveland and over the last 10 games Texas is hitting
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273. Cleveland's only hitting two O
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4, so it seems like an obvious play.
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Take Cleveland, better record. You know the fade lighter here
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or the high ERA. But yet if it's contrarian,
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Wiseland going to Texas again tells me we've got smart money.
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Texas, I'm going to take a shot on the Rangers tonight.
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I got the Rangers shop around. You can get them around -115, -,
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120. Keep on cruising.
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Going right back to the well with the snakes, baby.
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Last night we had Arizona come up with a huge win for us as the
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Snakes came back. As I mentioned, they were
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leading, coughed it up, came back one, six to five and the
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bottom of the ninth has around a -, 160 home favorite.
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Well, for tonight's pitching matchup we have Hunter Green
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going for the Reds. He's one and two with a 3.38
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ERA. He'll be opposed by Slade,
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Seseni or Sisoni one and two 4.15 ERA.
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What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, basically the bets what's are right down the middle. 5050
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public doesn't know what to do. Both these teams are slightly
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below 500 by the way if the Arizona D backs go over are
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eight 8083 1/2 win total man we might we really needed that one
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last night. Maybe that's the one that
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hopefully gets us gets us going and and cashes that over.
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But anyway 5050 bet split yet the Lions going to Arizona this
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game open very similar to that Texas game around to pick them
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-110 both sides -115 maybe slightly toward Arizona now it's
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up to -120. I even see a -, 125 Arizona.
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So again 5050 in a vacuum. If the tickets are split down
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the middle, theoretically the line should move at all.
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Yet we're seeing 5050 split and the lines going to Arizona tells
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me the bigger sharper wagers are on Arizona.
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Now the D backs would match as another non division favorite,
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lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team
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was expected to win. I'm going to bank on the Snakes
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offense 3248 versus only 217 for Cincinnati and run scored 211
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versus 176 in favor of Arizona. And if you also look at Hunter
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Green I know know there's a lot of people who are high on him.
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Young pitcher, I know he throws gas but he is just one and seven
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or I should say the Reds are just one and seven in his eighth
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starts this year so hopefully that continues.
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That losing streak continues here for against Cincinnati in
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favor of Arizona and also these teams have played four games
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this year Arizona's four and O. So you got it all up here guys.
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5050 bet split. Get the Lions going to the
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Snakes. Non division favorite.
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Better bats. Hopefully a fate of green
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Tonight I'm going Arizona. Shop around.
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I got Arizona at -120. Keep on cruising. 2 more another
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another. If ain't broke don't fix it.
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Play Kansas City. Seattle.
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I'm going with the Mariners. Baby Mariners came up huge for
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us last night. They're now 23 and 19.
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They won 62 last night as a -, 150 -, 160 home favorite.
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In the rematch tonight, the Royals 25 and 18.
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They're going with Michael Waka, two and four 5.15 ERA.
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Mariners, meanwhile, are going with Logan Gilbert, who is there
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basically de facto ace, three and one 2.94 ERA.
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What have you seen across the market here?
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Well, just kind of standard steam in favor of Seattle.
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The Mariners opened around a -, 150 home favorite.
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They've been bet up to around now -160, so about $0.10 of
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steam in favor of Seattle. Seattle's getting around 70% of
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money line bets in dollars so both public and sharp support as
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well as that 10 cent steam move in their favor.
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Now checking off two boxes here with Seattle, one would be that
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non division favorite. Again, if I'm in a match up here
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I always want to be in a non division favorite instead of a
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division favorite because that basically the division
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divisional match ups to play each other quite a bit.
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So that built in familiarity really levels the playing field
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benefits the dog. Non division is the opposite.
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The lack of familiarity again benefiting quote UN quote the
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better team. But also we have a classic
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favorite low total. So total in this one is a very
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low 7. So basically the fewer amount of
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expected runs scored more likely to come from quote UN quote the
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better team which would be Seattle based on that minus
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number. Also you look at Seattle at home
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this year. We had a good night last night.
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We visited Kurt Cobain's grave. We got some sushi.
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This is my like Boston. Never been to Seattle like
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stereotypes here that I'm throwing out.
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But anyway Seattle's 14 and 9 at home so they've been one of the
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best home teams in baseball. Actually the 8th best overall,
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and Logan Gilbert in particular. I've seen this guy pitch quite a
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bit. I'm pretty high on Gilbert.
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He's got a 1.8 OERA in three home starts this year, so he's
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been good at home. Mariners have the better bullpen
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ERA of 3.29 verse 3.92. And also hopefully based off of
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last night, is an advantage for Seattle's bullpen tonight
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because last night George Kirby went seven innings.
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Brady Singer only went 5 S Singer basically forced his
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bullpen to come in a little bit more versus Kirby who you know
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gave his bullpen a little bit of a break here.
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But if we have a non division favorite, a 10 cent steam move
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as well as some correlative betting value favorite low
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total, Gilbert's been good at home.
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I'm gonna ride with Seattle tonight guys shop around.
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I got Seattle at around -155 and then last night of the night I
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rarely get to bet this team cause usually they're getting
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90% of bets and they're -300 but tonight they're sub 200 and they
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got a line move. I'm going with them.
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Let's go Dodgers. I'm staying up late to sweat the
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Dodgers tonight. So Dodgers are 28 and 15.
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They won last night's opener against the Giants.
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Six to four in extra innings. Cashed.
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Made you sweat if you played them, but they were -220 Rd.
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favorite last night for the match up.
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Tonight we have the Dodgers going with Gavin Stone.
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A righty. He's three and one with a 3.55
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ERA. He'll be opposed by the Giants
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starter Giants. Meanwhile, 19 and 24.
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I do have the Giants over win total.
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I think it's also 83 1/2. So let's let's pick up some
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wins, but not tonight. But they're going to go with
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Keaton. Win a righty 3 and five 5.63
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ERA. What do I like about the Dodgers
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here? Basically steam with no let up.
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The Dodgers opened around a -, 165 Rd. favorite.
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Now they're up to -185 S, about a $0.20 steam move in their
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favor, telling us the bigger sharper wagers are on the
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Dodgers here. Now they're getting around 90%
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of bets, bets in dollars on the money line.
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Again, Dodgers will always be a popular play, but the difference
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is it's not just square money. Based on that 20 cent steam move
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tells us that it's respected money as well.
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Now I'm going to bank on the Dodgers offense.
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They're hitting 26258 home runs, 226 runs scored.
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San Fran's only hitting 2:38 with 38 homers and only 163 runs
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scored. We do have a good system match
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on the Dodgers that would be a road favorite.
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Very simple. But Rd. favorites, they're 129
12:50
and 8760% this year with a 5% ROI and win.
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It's always funny in baseball because like whether you win or
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lose a bet, you kind of you gain a little insight.
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Like I'll give you an example. I bet San Fran last week and it
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was the last start that win made.
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I remember they were on the road at that Colorado and win got lit
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up, lost 9 to 1 to the Rockies. So you know, even though I lost
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that bet on San Fran, I said, hey, I'm not really a big fan of
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win, and wins actually gotten lit up.
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His last two starts. He's given up 12 earned runs
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over 4.1 innings. Prior to that nine, one loss to
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the Rockies, they lost 14 to 3 to the Phillies.
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So if we get some revenge against win the Dodgers, you can
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pick out a lot of numbers that'll make them look good
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because they are good. They are plus 76, excuse me, and
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run differential Giants are -41. LA is a perfect four and O
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against San Francisco this season.
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So hopefully that continues here for tonight.
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So I'm going with the Dodgers. Good sharp steam.
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I'm fading win. Let's go Rd. favorite.
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I'm on the Dodgers at -185. S 4 pack for tonight guys.
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Can we get three of them. Texas, Seattle, Arizona and the
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Los Angeles Dodgers. Keep on cruising.
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Let's go over to the NBA for tonight because NBA man I was
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sweating going nuts last night for the OK C Thunder Basically a
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blueprint play low bets higher dollars.
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Reverse line move. I mean if if you look at
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everything that you know a data-driven better looks for
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boom you had it last night with OK C but for tonight we actually
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have a carbon copy of that game. I'm going to go to Pacers and
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Knicks 8:00 game here for tonight.
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Series is tied two to two. Knicks look great got up two O
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now they've gotten a lot of injuries they haven't looked
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great. Pacers won their home game so
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now it's two to two. So pivotal game five here for
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tonight and I'm going to go with the Pacers.
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This again feels like a carbon copy.
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Pacers to me feel very similar to OK C last night.
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Not in terms of being down 2 to one like obviously it's tied,
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but in terms of the bet split in the line move.
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So the Knicks back home tonight at at MSG this game open Knicks
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around -2, 1/2. I saw a bunch of books that open
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-2, 1/2. I saw an opener of -3.
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I saw one opener of Knicks like -1, 1/2 then it got up to 2 1/2.
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But either way it's all it's all come tumbling down today so
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late, you know late morning, early afternoon.
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It's all coming back toward the Pacers.
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So we we're going from plus 2 1/2 down to 1 1/2 or now even
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one for Indiana. So right off the bat we got the
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line going to Indy like it went to OK C last night as a short
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Rd. dog. Also great bet split.
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The Pacers are only getting 43% of bets but 67% of the money.
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That is a fantastic contrarian low bets.
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Higher dollars bet split. Now one little nugget here.
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OG and Unaby who was a great pick up for the for the Knicks
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and by the trade deadline but new to be.
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When he plays this series they're two and O the Knicks are
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when he doesn't play they're O and two and he's out tonight
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with AI believe it's a hamstring.
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It's a little nugget there but also I'm going to bank on
15:57
hopefully some kind refs for tonight.
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Hopefully the refs are in our favor because James Williams,
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Jetta Jedominius, Jedinamus Petratus, and guess what the
16:09
extender Scott Foster. They are all Rd. rafts.
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Big Rd. rafts between 51 and 54% against the spread.
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So Foster, Petritas and Williams all Rd. rafts which would favor
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Indiana. Also Dog who can score system
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match. So Indiana is the #2 offensive
16:27
efficiency team in the NBA. So if you can score you can
16:30
hopefully keep pace, cover the number.
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Although when you're getting a +, 1, 1/2 or plus one, you
16:34
really need them to pretty much win the game.
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But last little nugget here would be our buddy Robo Jackson
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Juice Reel. If you haven't signed up for
16:43
Juice Reel yet, make sure you sign up.
16:45
I tweeted about a great line shopping opportunity in the NBA
16:48
for tonight for the Nuggets and the T Wolves.
16:50
We'll get to that in a second, but Juice Reel is a fantastic
16:53
app for sports betters that helps you win so you can sync
16:57
your sports books. It'll give you basically a track
16:59
record of your performance. You can learn more about
17:01
yourself as a better you can follow the Robo Jackson plays
17:04
each day. You can look for arbitrage
17:06
opportunities, sharp mush opportunities.
17:09
But Robo Jackson, our our buddy, the AI bot, he has got a system
17:13
match. He recommends Pacers plus 1 1/2
17:15
tonight. So that is a great sign that
17:17
basically the AI bot is aligning with the betting market with
17:21
that line move toward Indiana. So you add it all up here guys.
17:24
This reminds me quite. And here I'll give you this last
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little nugget. You know, if you are a dog on
17:30
the road getting a point or point and a half, think of it
17:32
this way. If this is a neutral site, you
17:34
know, if there's a Super Bowl, obviously it's different sport.
17:36
But a neutral site, neutral court, you know, you probably
17:39
give around 2, two or three points for homecourt advantage.
17:42
That basically means on a neutral court that the Pacers
17:44
are favored. Also anuna bees out.
17:47
I know Jalen Brunson's been banged up.
17:49
Feels like the Knicks are a mass unit here.
17:50
So I'm going Pacers again, try to get the plus 1 1/2.
17:54
I see a couple books that are offering plus 1 1/2 if you get.
17:58
If you only get a one, I'd probably wait it out see if it
18:00
creeps back up to 1 1/2. Although there are 1 1/2's out
18:04
there. Just very important to get the
18:05
hook. You really want that extra half
18:07
point. If they end up losing by one,
18:08
hopefully they went out right and it doesn't matter.
18:11
But definitely try to use juice reel to your advantage and get
18:14
the hook. I'm on Pacers plus 1 1/2 now.
18:18
Quick comment on T Wolves Nuggets.
18:20
I didn't see a ton here. I was intrigued a little bit by
18:23
Minnesota. If you look at the bet splits
18:26
for Minnesota, they look pretty good.
18:28
I ended up not playing this game because I'm holding a Nuggets
18:32
series ticket at plus one O 8, so I'm just rooting for the
18:35
Nuggets to win. So if you're like me and you
18:38
have action on the Nuggets, this is a game where maybe you don't
18:39
bet and you just root for them. But I did notice a little bit
18:42
toward the T Wolves. They're only getting 36% bets,
18:45
72% money. They did go from plus 4 1/2 down
18:48
to +4 at some shop so maybe a lean toward T Wolves.
18:52
But again, I'm not playing it. I'm just rooting for my series
18:54
ticket there. Nuggets plus one O 8.
18:57
Now over to the NHL. Can everyone come together
19:01
Kumbaya and say a prayer? Dear God, can the Boston Bruins
19:06
Tonight Show up and play their hearts out?
19:09
I might have to do the Miracle on Ice.
19:11
If we play Florida 10 times they may win 9 times out of 10.
19:15
But not tonight. Tonight the Boston Bruins show
19:18
up. They don't take stupid
19:20
penalties. Swayman stands on his head.
19:23
We avenge the cheap shot by Bennett on Marchand.
19:26
So let me just get this straight.
19:27
I'm not betting on Boston tonight.
19:29
They're a + 180 dog. If anything, the line has moved
19:32
a little bit toward Florida. But I can tell you, even though
19:35
I'm not betting on it, I am a die hard Boston Bruins fan.
19:38
I hope my hope my season does not end tonight.
19:41
So maybe the Bruins surprised me.
19:42
Wouldn't that be great? So no play on the Bruins Florida
19:45
game. But I do have a plan.
19:46
Vancouver and Edmonton. Now this one's a little
19:48
interesting to me because I'm going to go toward the total
19:52
because I believe it was on Friday.
19:54
I don't know if that was game, game two, game one, game two,
19:57
game three. I forgot what it was.
19:58
Anyway, we took the over 6 1/2 and it cashed Vancouver,
20:02
Edmonton. So let me give you the series
20:05
results. Through three games.
20:08
You had a 5 to 4 game, nine goals.
20:10
You had a four to three-game seven goals.
20:12
You had another four to three-game, seven goals.
20:15
So you've basically gone over 6 1/2 in all three games this
20:18
series. Now what I love about this over
20:21
6 1/2 tonight. Is the bet split only 68% of
20:24
bets but 92% of the money is on the over.
20:28
So that is a really good low bets higher dollar bet split.
20:30
I'm a little, it's not the perfect play because I'm a
20:34
little surprised by the juice liability here.
20:36
Like if you look at the 6 1/2's across the board, they're a
20:39
little bit juiced up under like 6 1/2 under -115.
20:43
I thought for sure maybe you'd get some juiced up over.
20:45
So if it goes under, I'll say Josh that was a red flag that
20:49
the juice was liability under. But the way this series is
20:52
shaped up, you know we have two of the top offenses in hockey.
20:56
Edmonton averages 3.6 goals a game.
20:58
Vancouver 3.4. In the post season.
21:00
Edmonton has got they're clicking 46% on the power play.
21:05
Vancouver's 23%. Edmonton is I believe they're
21:08
down 2 to one in this series so it's a must win for them.
21:10
They're favored like -200 but also I'm going to look at the
21:13
goalies sea loaves or I continue to be unable to pronounce his
21:17
last name. He's been decent 2.65 goals
21:21
against, nine O 8 save percentage in the post season.
21:23
But again, this guy's a six round pick.
21:25
I'm just not a huge believer in him.
21:27
And then if you look at the goalie for Edmonton, they're
21:29
going with Calvin Picard or Picard.
21:32
Now he was a first round pick, either first or second round
21:35
pick a long time ago, but he's basically a journeyman 32 year
21:38
old. He had a decent regular season,
21:40
2.45 goals against, nine O 9 save percentage.
21:43
But he hasn't played in forever and they're putting in him in
21:46
tonight against Vancouver, one of the best offenses.
21:49
Who's really clicking right now? Offensively I think is a recipe
21:52
for an over. Now maybe I'm wrong, Maybe
21:54
Pickard plays great, maybe it's a, you know, change of scenery,
21:57
new goalie play stands on his head.
21:59
But if we have Sea Loaves and Picard going head to head and
22:03
every game's gone over 6 1/2 this series and we do have a
22:06
good bet split to the over 68% bets, 92% money, then this is
22:10
what I'm calling a principal play on principle.
22:13
I'm going to go over 6 1/2 even though it's not.
22:16
It's not solely principal because it is a good bet split,
22:19
but I'm a little just surprised by the juice.
22:22
So with that being said, it's a cheap juice price.
22:25
I got Vancouver, Edmonton over 6 1/2 goals at -1 O 5.
22:29
So let's get some goals and I always like to say this, but can
22:33
we get a three to three-game going into overtime?
22:35
I don't care who wins or guaranteed a seventh goal.
22:38
Now to finish up the POD WNBA opening day.
22:42
That's right, the WNBA returns and I know everyone is
22:46
interested in Caitlin Clark as deservedly so.
22:48
I saw her point total prop was 20 1/2 and like everyone and
22:51
their mothers hammering the over.
22:53
But I want to say a couple things about WNBA hinted at this
22:56
earlier but with WNBA. The key here is there's a lot of
23:00
bias against the WNBAI think it's like male driven, like oh
23:05
you're going to bet women's bat, Like there's a stigma which I
23:08
think is stupid, like I'll bet Little League World Series, I'll
23:11
bet a hot dog eating contest. If there's data, I'm betting it.
23:14
So I think automatically just betting it you can take
23:18
advantage of maybe the male lack of respect for WNBA if if that
23:23
makes any sense. But also I hinted at this at the
23:25
start of the pod. But the key here with WNBA is
23:28
that it's a very kind of interesting market to monitor
23:32
because you don't have a lot of public these games are pretty
23:34
low. Bet I mentioned again Caitlin
23:35
Clark, maybe she'll provide a boost to the WNBA and we did see
23:40
that they got enough money to pay for chartered flights.
23:42
So again, it's great to see the league growing, but if you'll
23:45
get line moves, line moves are really meaningful to me in WNBA
23:48
because there isn't a lot of, you know, public action, but
23:51
there's respected money who maps the game, sets their own
23:54
numbers, you know, plays their projections like wise guys or
23:57
wise gals do any other sport. So when you see a line move in
24:00
the WNBA, it's meaningful, it's not public, it's it's basically
24:03
wise guy money. I would like this like in this
24:05
too, when we bet a lot of college basketball like the
24:08
obscure, you know, low back games Kennesaw State is playing,
24:13
I don't know, Green Bay like these weird games that no one's
24:17
looking at. Texas A&M, Corpus Christi is
24:20
playing. I don't know, give me another
24:23
random school, Murray State. Like if you see a line move in
24:26
those games, it's meaningful. It's respect to money coming in.
24:29
So line moves are meaningful. And then here's the other
24:31
beautiful part of WNBA. You don't have to know all the
24:35
players. You don't have to know the team
24:37
names. All you have to do is monitor
24:39
the market and also take advantage of rhythm projections.
24:43
Rhythm Who powers his pot and does a great job of doing.
24:45
So guess what they have projections all season long for?
24:49
WNBAI even got an e-mail about it today.
24:51
How excited they were to unveil their WNBA plays.
24:54
So that being said, I have a bet tonight in the WNBA.
24:57
Let's see if we can start off one and a Wouldn't that be nice?
24:59
And the bet is on the champion, The defending champion Las Vegas
25:04
Aces. It's a 10:00 game tonight.
25:06
Mercury against Aces this game. Open aces as low as -13. 1/2.
25:11
The line is now up to -16 -, 16 1/2, which seems like a really
25:15
high number. But I see the line move toward
25:18
the aces, tells me smart money hit the aces.
25:21
Then I go to the bet splits. And if you look at the bet
25:23
splits right now the aces are only getting 75% of bets.
25:28
Let me double check this. Yeah, but over an 85% of the
25:31
money. So low bets, higher all bet
25:33
split, they have the far better offense.
25:35
They averaged 93 points a game last year.
25:38
And then I pop open my rhythm app in the first.
25:41
Basically the first suggested play that I see when I hit WNBA
25:45
is Aces -16 1/2. You know why?
25:49
Because rhythm is projecting at the aces win by 20.7 points, so
25:54
-20.7. So if rhythm is projecting, aces
25:58
win by Basically we'll round it up.
25:59
You can round it down. 2021 we're laying a 16 1/2.
26:02
They only have to win by 17. That is a three or even a four
26:06
point edge based on the rhythm AI backed model projection and
26:10
what what the current line is here.
26:13
So this is something I think we're going to do for much of
26:15
the year. We're going to wait, not going
26:16
to force it, but look for rhythm projections that align with the
26:19
market and we have one tonight on the aces.
26:21
So I'm laying it with the Aces. Let's freaking blow out the
26:25
Mercury. How about you win by 25?
26:27
Wouldn't that be nice? Let's go Aces -16, 1/2.
26:29
And then also I did place a series bet if you can get any
26:33
plus money on the Aces to win the whole thing.
26:35
They won it last year at bet MGM, the Aces are basically,
26:40
they went from plus 1/15 to plus 100.
26:41
They're getting 17% of bets, but 42% of dollars.
26:46
So again, the closest competitor there is the New York Liberty.
26:50
But there we go guys. We did it guys and gals, we hit
26:53
on pretty much every sport you can bet on right now.
26:56
Baseball, hockey, WNBA, we're doing it all in the NBA of
27:00
course. But with that being said, as we
27:03
finish up another pod here, guys, First off, if you enjoy
27:05
the pod, if it has helped you to maybe view betting a little bit
27:10
differently instead of, you know, betting based on your gut
27:12
instinct, your bias, your favoritism, Now you're learning
27:14
to read the market like a Wall Street trader approaches the
27:17
stock market. Or maybe you're putting more
27:19
stock into line movement system, matches, bet splits, you're not
27:23
parlaying. Whatever the case may be.
27:25
First off, thank you for listening #2 Can you help me
27:28
grow this pod? Can you give this pod a five
27:31
star review? Give it five stars on iTunes or
27:33
Spotify. They'll really go a long way to
27:35
helping us grow up the charts. Secondly, I would love for you
27:39
guys to buy my book, support the team, learn more about
27:42
data-driven betting, go to Amazon.com, type in the
27:45
Everything Guide to Sports betting, Pick up a copy for you
27:48
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
27:50
in the industry. How lines are set.
27:52
How and why they move. How to read line movement, How
27:53
to locate sharp action. How to place a bet in person or
27:56
online. How to shop for the best line.
27:58
How to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
28:00
the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
28:02
So go pick up a copy and I'll sign it for you and buy you
28:05
beer. Or if you don't drink, I'll buy
28:06
you ginger ale at the book. And then lastly of course, have
28:10
you signed up for your free trial of rhythm and your free
28:13
trial of juice Reel yet? If you haven't, First off, if
28:16
you have, thank you. I hope you're enjoying it.
28:18
I know Gary Garrison's enjoying it, guys making money hand over
28:21
fist with the rhythm projections.
28:24
But if you haven't yet, I'd love for you guys to give it a shot.
28:26
Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed projections for both
28:31
player props and Game picks. Juice Real I told you about.
28:34
They're great with their suggested plays each day
28:37
tracking your performance. Sharp mush plays, arbitrage
28:40
plays. These are all apps that I
28:42
believe in, that I respect and that I know their goal is not to
28:46
take money from you, but to help you win.
28:48
I know that sounds cheesy. Obviously everyone wants to make
28:51
money. Every business wants to make
28:53
money. But unlike maybe the sports
28:55
books, which profit off your losses, you know, Juice Reel and
28:58
Rhythm, they do well when you do well.
29:00
So that's why I love both companies.
29:01
So if you haven't done it yet, you can just click the bio
29:04
description within the podcast on Spotify and iTunes.
29:07
You can also just give a quick look at my Twitter feed at Josh
29:10
under score Insights. You'll see some custom links to
29:12
sign up for Juice Reel and Rhythm right there as well.
29:15
But that about does it, everyone.
29:17
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
29:20
Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
29:23
Sun Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plainers
29:26
Park Casino, or MGM Springfield, of course, in my neck of the
29:30
woods in Massachusetts, or out in the desert where the true
29:32
grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
29:34
number. Runners with lowest choose
29:36
possible is found at the South Point or sweating sharp can
29:38
train plays jumping in the pool when Kevin Newman walks it off
29:42
for the snakes at Circa and Stadium Swim wherever it may be.
29:45
You're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me that D
29:47
backs ticket or a Mariners ticket or most of all, OKC.
29:51
Man, they're just roared back in the fourth quarter.
29:54
And guess what? First one's on me, Next one's on
29:56
you. We're going to post about the
29:57
book. Sweat sharp, contrarian plays
29:59
all night long. So wish you the best of luck.
30:01
Everyone, have a great Tuesday, my parting words.
30:05
Stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
30:08
Place yourself on the side of the house.
30:09
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:12
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
30:14
Betting's hard. Unpredictable things happen.
30:17
But even though you might win some, lose some based on luck,
30:20
or getting lucky or unlucky, you know what's not about luck?
30:23
Consistently? Betting good, good lines.
30:26
Getting good numbers, beating the closing line.
30:28
If we can find games that fit our model against the public,
30:32
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, Get
30:35
some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
30:37
to be successful sports bettors long term.
30:39
So enjoy your Tuesday, everyone. Dear God, can my Boston Bruins
30:43
live to fight another day? Let's see if we can cash some
30:45
tickets. Everybody, everybody.
30:46
And I'll be back tomorrow for episode 44 of the All Systems Go
30:50
Sports Betting Podcast powered by Rhythm.
30:53
Have a great night and good luck.