Latest / Merryn Talks Money / SpaceX Emergency Podcast: FOMO is Not an Investment Strategy

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SpaceX Emergency Podcast: FOMO is Not an Investment Strategy · Merryn Talks Money

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to another emergency
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: episode of the Marin Talks Money Market rap wh We
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week.
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  Speaker 2: And what is driving them.
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  Speaker 1: I am Maren thum zep Web that is Writt Large
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  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
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  Speaker 3: And I'm joined Stevick's, senior reporter for Bloomberg and author
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  Speaker 3: of the Money Distilled News.
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  Speaker 1: Later, John, the reason for this podcast we emergency and listen.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not going I'm actually not going to tell people
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: what this emergency podcast is about quite yet. I'm going
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to do it another way. I'm going to say to you, John,
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  Speaker 1: what do you think I did? Five minutes before I
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  Speaker 1: pressed the button to log on to chat to you?
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: What do you think I did?
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  Speaker 3: Did you press the back signal from an emergency podcast
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  Speaker 3: untalked money?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Sure? I don't know why you can't guess this because
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  Speaker 1: I did the same thing as everybody across the country
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  Speaker 1: is doing today and will do tomorrow if they don't.
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  Speaker 2: Leave it too late. I have sent my application for
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  Speaker 2: SpaceX shares excellent, That's what I like to hear.
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  Speaker 1: I know I've used Hargri's landsdown and I've very carefully
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  Speaker 1: read all the stuff. I've read the bit about is
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  Speaker 1: the is the SpaceX IPO right for you? I'm none
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  Speaker 1: the wiser by the time I've finished reading that. I've
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  Speaker 1: read the bit about you know, my W eight B
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  Speaker 1: and form et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And I've
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  Speaker 1: read the bit how there are lots of risks and
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  Speaker 1: I might not make any money and indeed I might
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  Speaker 1: lose all my money And do you know what, I've
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  Speaker 1: done it anyway, And I've done it because I just
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  Speaker 1: want to be involved. I mean, I got I spoke
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  Speaker 1: to Anna McDonald, who is the and the CIO head
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  Speaker 1: of investment at Hargri's Landsdowne earlier and she said very firmly,
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  Speaker 1: She's like, FOMO is not an investment strategy.
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  Speaker 2: But do you know, I imply for the minimum maybe
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  Speaker 2: it did well well.
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  Speaker 3: So that's the resonn thing I recommendation.
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  Speaker 1: No, it absolutely is not a resounding by recommendation.
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  Speaker 3: What is this is for the purplicies of John lawis ticket.
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  Speaker 2: This is for the journalistic integrity.
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  Speaker 3: We don't like to talk about anything we haven't tried ourselves.
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  Speaker 1: And also you know, I very carefully bought bitcoins so
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  Speaker 1: I could say that I was participating, and may I
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: say you did not. And I'm also getting the impression
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  Speaker 1: from you that you have not yet applied for your
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  Speaker 1: SpaceX chess.
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  Speaker 3: I feel I would have a few more hoops to
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  Speaker 3: jump through, so so I probably point. But yeah, I
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  Speaker 3: think it's not I think that it's good to see
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  Speaker 3: how the actual men say that these things wants for deafinite.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm afraid it's too easy.
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  Speaker 3: It's far too It's quite simple, isn't it.
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  Speaker 1: It takes about twenty seconds, and so if you do
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  Speaker 1: want them, you know, you can just go get them.
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  Speaker 1: All the big platforms in the UK and in the
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  Speaker 1: US have a way for you to apply for SpaceX chess.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Now you won't know how many shairs you're going to get.
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  Speaker 1: You only even know the price until they hit your
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: portfolio on Friday morning. So I mean, I do think
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  Speaker 1: that that is a strange thing for anyone to do.
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  Speaker 1: It's impossible to value companies like this. The valuation rests
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: on forecasts made out over five, ten, fifteen years. They
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  Speaker 1: rest on the revenues for SpaceX coming not so much
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  Speaker 1: from its space business, which is. Of course you have
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  Speaker 1: Spectacular by the way, Spectacular it absolutely dominates the launch
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  Speaker 1: business in the US and hence globally. The statistic on that,
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  Speaker 1: I thought there were one hundred and ninety nine space
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  Speaker 1: launches licensed in the US last year, and SpaceX did
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  Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty one of them, so shoo, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: eighty ofcent plus absolutely dominate that market. And then they've
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  Speaker 1: got Starlink, which we're using right now, by the way,
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  Speaker 1: which is the bit that nine thousand satellites there. That's
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  Speaker 1: the bit that actually brings in the money, right, not
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  Speaker 1: enough money, but money. And then that's Britter x, which
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  Speaker 1: of course is our natural home. You and I you're
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  Speaker 1: better on it than I am. And then of course
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  Speaker 1: there's XAI, which is is the croc chatbot. So what
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  Speaker 1: we're being asked to believe now is that this is
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  Speaker 1: not a space company so much as an AI company,
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  Speaker 1: and the combination of space and AI is is the magic.
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  Speaker 1: You can have data centers in space, solar power, don't
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  Speaker 1: need to worry about all that pesky cooling and infrastructure,
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  Speaker 1: and this is it. That's what that's what we're being
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  Speaker 1: asked to buy into, right yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I mean it's a lot of hope basically, which is
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  Speaker 3: can it traditionally been what you learn musk trades in.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm always have going to look at a
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  Speaker 3: couple of valuations from relatively sensible people this morning, and
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  Speaker 3: I mean it varies a lot, I mean moren start
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: of valuation where they said they can it is about
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  Speaker 3: what's about seven hundred and eighty billion, which is about
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  Speaker 3: half or you know what Elin's looking for. Whereas as
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Worth the Moiderine, who is an excellent can analyst, and
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: the Stacey is a very clever guy. I would say
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  Speaker 3: it's pretty good you in these Blue Sky companies because
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: he's quite open minded, but he's also not, you know,
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  Speaker 3: not stupid. And he put about one in a quarter
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  Speaker 3: trillion to maybe one point three to five trillion order
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  Speaker 3: as a sort of feasible kind of thing, but obviously
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  Speaker 3: saying but it's still a lot more expensive than that,
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  Speaker 3: so it's more he would probably wait until it had
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  Speaker 3: you know, dropped a bit after the IBO, and then
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  Speaker 3: he would maybe consider it. But I think that, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: I think that shows you that this isn't something that
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  Speaker 3: you would buy now based on the fundamentals, because based
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: on tell me, well, I know, I know, man, you'd
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: say you should have phoned me before you make these
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: kinds of decisions. We come on, Yeah, you can't do
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  Speaker 3: it based on the fundamentals. It's basically based on the
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: idea that they're cony be able to hype this up
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  Speaker 3: so much. And to be fair, they've got almost every
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: investment bank in you know, in the US kind of
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  Speaker 3: working on the deal. Most of the indices of essentially
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  Speaker 3: agreed that they'll take SpaceX, but with a notable exception
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  Speaker 3: the S and P, which is, you know, I think
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  Speaker 3: it's quite a big deal and actually quite an interesting
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  Speaker 3: thing for passive investing overall, because that's going to represent
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  Speaker 3: a real kind of Bui furcation. Yeah, you know, it's
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  Speaker 3: it's a real decision point for you. Now whether you
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  Speaker 3: buy a passive US tracker that doesn't have SpaceX in
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  Speaker 3: it or one that does. And also SpaceX isn't the
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  Speaker 3: only one. There's quite a few big guys.
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  Speaker 1: It doesn't brings us back, John, doesn't it That whole
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  Speaker 1: question that we've been asking, is this such a thing
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  Speaker 1: as a passive.
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  Speaker 2: Investment, And of course there isn't.
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  Speaker 1: Now even if you're buying something that supposedly tracks the
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  Speaker 1: S and P. You are effectively making quite a major
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  Speaker 1: active choice. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I think that's really interesting because the other day I
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  Speaker 3: was chatting to your colleague Sam Mundstad the other day
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  Speaker 3: about this kind of IPO. We were saying, oh, I
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: wonder if SpaceX might break you know, the past of market,
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  Speaker 3: and in a way, I think this is actually how
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  Speaker 3: it breaks it. It's very clear now that there is
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: no such thing as a passive investment, but this has
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  Speaker 3: really kind of like hung a label on the fact
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  Speaker 3: that if you if you buy the S and P tracker,
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  Speaker 3: you're getting a very different kind of and and essentially
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  Speaker 3: an actively and a portfolio with a certain layer of
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  Speaker 3: active management on it that you know. I mean to
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  Speaker 3: be clear, I approve of S and P's decision. I
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  Speaker 3: think it's the correct decision. I think the idea that
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  Speaker 3: you know, you should have to have a year or
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  Speaker 3: so of actually being a listed company, even if you're
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  Speaker 3: a huge one, makes a lot of sense. But at
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  Speaker 3: the end of the day, it is there. It's their
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  Speaker 3: active choice. You know, you can equally rationalize as the
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  Speaker 3: Nasdak presumably does that. Well, actually this is a massive stock,
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  Speaker 3: you know, it's significant. Investors will want it in their portfolio.
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  Speaker 1: You'll portfolio represent the market if you don't have it
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  Speaker 1: in Yeah, So that's the both arguments.
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  Speaker 3: Can't you Yeah, but that's the points I notice bifocated,
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  Speaker 3: So you know you can't. If you see someone on
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  Speaker 3: invest and passively, I will will watch taper passive. Are
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  Speaker 3: you choosing? And I think that's that's the really what's
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  Speaker 3: interesting behind the philosophical level, it does mean not you
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  Speaker 3: have to think about where your money's going and a
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  Speaker 3: way that perhaps you can have didn't want to, or
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: you know, you thought it was just an auto pilot.
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  Speaker 1: I supposely that's that's one thing that we need to
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  Speaker 1: worry about. And then we need to worry about not
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  Speaker 1: just this IPO, but the other mega ipeos that are
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  Speaker 1: coming Anthropic, open AI, etctera and the extent that they
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  Speaker 1: will have both on the market as a whole and
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  Speaker 1: on passive, because suddenly you're going to have even more
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  Speaker 1: concentrated portfolios. If you've got you a PASSIVEVTF on the
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  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred, it's going to be even
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  Speaker 1: more concentrated than it was before. I saw some of
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  Speaker 1: the assuming they all get away as they intend to
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  Speaker 1: get away, you're going to end up with the top
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: top ten companies taking up pushing fifty percent of the index.
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  Speaker 1: Really really is new and terrifying.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean when you think about it, So
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  Speaker 3: the most volatile index this year has been South Korean
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: Cotsby index. The courseby dropped about nine percent on this morning.
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  Speaker 3: That's what recording this on Wendy. And that's because everyone
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: was freaking out a about the US, possibly reason interest
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: rates because they cannap jobs figures want better than expected.
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  Speaker 3: But that index is about fifty sixty percent is two
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: chip makers. But if you're talking about like the US,
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  Speaker 3: which obviously is a much more globally significant index, having
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  Speaker 3: the top ten amounting to about sixty fifty sixty percent,
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  Speaker 3: I mean you are starting to get on for the
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: kind of concentration that leads to the kind of volatility
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: that we're seeing in the cost By index. So again,
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  Speaker 3: I think that's a pretty interesting side effect. I think
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  Speaker 3: this is also I don't know this is before we
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: look at the fact that the hyperscalers as in basically
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: the magnificence it's not quite the Magnificent seven, but all
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: the big tech companies are now I said, well, Google
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: or alphabet rather is looking to raise eighty five billion
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: in new shares from next quarter to spend on investing
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: in AHI. And then there was a rumor at the
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: weekend at Facebook owner Meta is hoping to do the
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: same thing. So if they are all flooding the marketway
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: equity issuance as well, you've got to think that part
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: of the reason that markets have gone up so much
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: is because they've been getting smaller. But now we're actually that's.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Changing the equatization.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: For years, we've been saying, you know, a supplier is falling,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: demand is rising, and that's one of the things pushing
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: the market up. And now suddenly we have this insanely
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: huge influx of IPOs and other issuance. Is there really
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: enough cash to absorb all this and so that's your
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: your first question, is there actually enough customers? But at
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  Speaker 1: all is the volatility that we're already seeing. You know,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: you talked about the concerns about US rates, et cetera.
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  Speaker 1: But there's also a suggestion that what you've seen as
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: people beginning to pull some cash out of other markets
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: in order to have it ready for the big I
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: pos so you see you begin to see perhaps a
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: rotation as well from inside technology, from already listed companies
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: to companies that are about to be listed, et cetera.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: There's a there's a lot going on here. It's very
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: hard to see exactly how it's going to play out
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: over a couple of the next couple of weeks.
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I suppose that's there's a sense because
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: that's another tech company for this APO talk so this morning,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: the one that's bending spoons, which is not so well
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: in the wine, but it owns things like an EO
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: L and some all sort of Internet properties that it
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: now basically just makes money from sort of subscription type thing.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest holding in the Shalian Billy
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Gifford Private Capital Private.
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  Speaker 2: Assets, which also has SpaceX, isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's also good SpaceX and that thing's got a
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: bit of anthropy because well and Stripe. But a lot
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  Speaker 3: of the interesting ones that are about to go public
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: at some point. The point is just kind of a
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: sense that they're all going, oh, we need to get
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: in here before all the money's.
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  Speaker 1: Gone quickly, don't you before?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and you do wonder it's like, well, this is kind.
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  Speaker 3: This is again classic top of the market behavior, even
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: though you know you kind of hesitate to say it
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: because you don't want people say okay, better all go
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: to cash and then everything just keeps going up. But
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: the point is if you did look back in like
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: five years time and say, oh, yeah, that was the
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: top of the market because everyone was rushing to get
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: out fast before things tipped over. So this is sort
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: of like classic topy behavior.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, Well, as we say, you your purctase is
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: their exit?
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean they're telling a lot of
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: these people clearly though they've been sitting on millions and
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: millions of dollars. And certainly if it was me and
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: I was like employee number whatever twelve at SpaceX, I've
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: been sitting there on generational wealth and I'm about to
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: have the chance to get out, I'm not you know,
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to carry on staying there. As soon
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: as that lockup is done, I'm pressing and sell on
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: my you know, lines down account.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And crucially, the key question then is when do the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: lookups end for insiders? For SpaceX employees, they're shorter than usual,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: aren't they, So I think they'll be coming up towards
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the end of the year September through December.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I think there's quite a few different stages because I think,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: like I mean, like Elo and Musk, I don't think
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: obviously I think he he's basically got to keep his
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: for a long time. But I think that six months
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: for most of the other low cups. And then there's
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: also there's like family and friends who I don't think
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: of getting a lock up at all, And you can
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: read around it a bit more closely, but but there's
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: definitely there's going to be dribs and drabs of that's
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: hitting the market. Yeah, for a prolonged period.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: C I would say dribs and drabs might be minimalizing
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: a little.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: John Well, I.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: Don't like to sensationalize these things. No, No, you know
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: that obviously.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Absolutely anyway, So we will see, but everyone everyone can
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: can know that I will be holding.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know, let's see what I get, right, this
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: is exciting.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Well, but I'll let you know on Twitter on Friday
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: how how much space X makes it into my portfolio.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: And then I'll be able to either mock John because
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I'm richer than him, or he'll be up to mock
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: me because they fall thirty percent on the day and
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I'm poorer than him. Because that's how this podcast works.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I will just say before we finished on that, you
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: know I did as I said. I spoke to anam
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: do Hargris lamsdown about this earlier and as she pointed out,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: FOMO is not an investment strategy. And you know, they
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: have been very clear about their messaging. And I think
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: all the platforms, all the platforms have so if you
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: go and look at any of the platforms where you're
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: thinking about buying, there's a lot of educational content on
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: all the platforms to try and help you work your
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: way around it.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: And if you are interested.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: In it, particularly if you are a new investor, because
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I do think this is the kind of IBA that
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: might stop bringing in some people who think, well, I've
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: never invested before, but this is so exciting, I've got
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to have a piece of it. If you are really
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: important that you read around it, think about it quite
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a lot, and do remember that it's mostly in fact,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say mostly always better to have a
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: diversified portfolio than not to have a diversified portfolio.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Is that fair?
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: Not definitely? And actually there's one statistic that I wouldn't
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: man can mention them before we call. There was an
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: interesting to you all I saw from Brent Donelli Spectral Market,
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: and he kind of like picked up on this list
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: that someone else had done, which was the largest IPOs
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: of the last twenty years. So like about I think
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: there were about thirty odds to them in the list,
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: and he looked at the price at which they closed
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: that on the IPO day, and then he looked at
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: what was the maximum draw down within a year, So
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: what was the biggest drop at any point from that,
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: And every single one of them had gone lower at
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: least at some point during that next twelve months, and
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: the minimum kind of dropped was twenty percent and the
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: maximum drop was ninety percent. And the ninety percent was
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: actually for Robin Hood, you know, the American Investment platform,
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: and obviously that's very successful now and it's you know,
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: it's trading much much higher than this IPO price. But
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: the point is, for every single one of these IPOs,
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: you got a better opportunity somewhere within the next twelve
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: months to buy it. Yeah, So I think that's the
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: other thing he remember is like like frequently no IPOs
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: might pop on the but then they quite often can
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: retreat again quite quietly by the.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: So okay, thank you John, good point.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: You're very well be be sale too late for me,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: now do for me.
• 17:18
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