Latest / Pod Save America / First Rule of Republican Fight Club

Transcript

First Rule of Republican Fight Club · Pod Save America

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: On today's show, Republicans in Congress are picking literal fights
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: with each other. Joe Biden gets advice from progressives on
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: how to talk about the economy. The New York Times
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: thinks Donald Trump is less vulnerable than other Republicans on
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: the issue of abortion. And Biden pollster John De La
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Volpe joins to talk about the president's challenge with younger voters.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: But first, MAGA Mike Johnson... looking more like Rhino Mike
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Johnson now that he passed a bill to keep the
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: government open that doesn't cut a single cent of spending
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: or include any of his weird right-wing policy kinks. It's
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: probably why the bill passed with mostly Democratic votes and
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: 95 Republicans voting against it. The Senate also passed the bill,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: and now it's off to Joe Biden for his signature.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: The bad news in all of this is that for
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: some reason, the bill only funds half the government until
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: January 19th and the other half until February 2nd. So
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: we get to relive this shit show after the holidays.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: There's also no plan to pass funding for Ukraine, Israel,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: humanitarian aid for Gaza, or help for Americans dealing with
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: natural disasters. So no welcoming Mike Johnson's to the resistance
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: just yet. But Dan, how was he able to pass
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: a temporary funding bill with mostly Democratic votes and so
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: many Republicans opposed? Isn't that the exact thing that cost
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy his job?
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: It is, John. It's the exact thing that cost Kevin
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: McCarthy his job. So I think there are a couple
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: of things here. One, I think every new Republican speaker
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: gets one mulligan and this is his, right? So you're
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: going to let him get away with it. Two, McCarthy
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: lied repeatedly to the caucus saying no CRs, no CRs,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: no temporary bills, no clean CRs. Johnson, and I say
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: this quite lightly to his very, very minimal credit, did
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: tell Republicans before during his nominating speech to be speaker
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: that this was the plan, that he wanted to do
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: a short-term extension so they can pass all of the
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: appropriations bills and then be in a position to negotiate
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: with the Senate and the White House. Now, there are
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: some wrinkles in that plan because they have been unable
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: to pass almost any appropriations bills, and they can't even
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: get them to the floor. But at least he– this
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: was not a surprise to most Republicans. Even if they
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: didn't want to put their name on it, he didn't
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: betray them per se in a way that Kevin McCarthy did.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: And Chip Roy and some of the other hardliners are
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: still pretty pissed about this.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: But I also think he just gets a little more
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: leeway because– They see him as true MAGA and not
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: a lying D-bag like Kevin McCarthy. White House initially criticized
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Johnson's plan and Democrats in Congress had a mixed reaction.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Do you think that so many of them ended up
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: voting yes because the bill didn't have any cuts or
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: bad policies and there's no other way to keep the
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: government open?
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: I feel like you're leading the witness with that question, but.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Of course. Well, you know.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: Their funding the government at last year's levels was actually
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: better than it would be if we were funding it
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: at this year's levels under the budget caps.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Here's the thing. I don't get why the White House
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: initially put out a statement that was like, his extreme plan, blah, blah, blah.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: I was like, it seems like a fine plan.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: There are a lot of budget nerds who think that
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: the laddered CR process is irresponsible.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: The laddered CR, by the way, for all you fucking
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: dorks out there.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: No, you not dork. If you're explaining it to people,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: they're not the dorks. The dorks are us.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: For all of you, I'm sorry, that's what I meant.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: For all of you who aren't fucking dorks out there,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: that's what I meant to say, is the fact that
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: half the government's being funded until January 19th and the
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: other half until February 2nd, which I don't even get that.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Let's not explain it.
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: All I will say about it is it's a stupid
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: idea designed to appeal to stupid people, and therefore you
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: got 57% of the Republican caucus to vote for it.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: And Democrats went along because- Who gives a shit? It's
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: better than shutting the government down over the holidays.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: Right. And I guess the only other thing that Democrats
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: didn't get, which we're about to talk about, is like
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: Ukraine funding, Israel funding, Gaza aid, natural disaster aid. And
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: it does seem like shutting the government down over that
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: is also not something you want to do before the holidays.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: You think?
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: No, thank you. No, thank you. So how the hell
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: do you think that gets done? All that aid? And... Like,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: does it get done? And two-part question, if for some
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: reason Johnson tries to pass a more permanent funding bill
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: that's as acceptable to Democrats in January, won't the hardliners
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: just vacate his ass?
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: Let me take the second part first. Probably. There is
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: a question about whether there is an appetite for another
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: month-long shit show in an election year. There's a chance
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: they might, Republicans tend to eat their own in the
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: odd years and then kind of line up with each
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: other in the even years. But it's very, very possible
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: because all it takes is one asshole to do it.
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: And there's a plethora of assholes who could do it.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: On the question of aid, really no idea how it
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: gets done. I think there are a couple of options here. One,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: the Senate passes something, sends it to the House. Tremendous
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: public pressure is put on the House, and eventually Johnson
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: lets it go through with mostly Democratic votes. That probably
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: also ends in the vacate his ass scenario that you
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: put forward. Two, the House refuses to do anything other
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: than Israel aid. The Senate eventually buckles and agrees to
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: just do Israel aid, and then I think the other
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: stuff may never get done because passing Ukraine aid on
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: its own through this House may be close to impossible.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Third option is, and this will lead us into the
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: next topic, is trial by combat. where one Republican fights
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: one Democrat and the winner gets to decide who gets aid.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I feel like with all of these,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: every time we talk about government funding, government shutdown, and
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: it seems like there's a solution, it's just kicking the
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: can down the road to an inevitable showdown where there
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: will be a shutdown or we will lose another Republican speaker.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: So sad. But like, I just don't, like at some point,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: these assholes are going to want their MAGA speaker to
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: act like a MAGA speaker, right? And so they're not
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: just going to let Johnson pass some full year funding
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: bill that doesn't have a bunch of extra cuts in
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: it beyond what Kevin McCarthy already agreed to with Joe Biden.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: So I just feel like this confrontation is coming at
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: some point, but who knows? And then on Ukraine and Israel,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I do think that if you have a bill that
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: has bipartisan support in the Senate, And then they try
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: to jam the House, and it's up to Mike Johnson
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: to put the bill on the floor. And there's at
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: least some group of Republicans in the House who want
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: to pass it, which we know that's true. So then
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: you've got Democrats and Republicans in the House, Democrats and
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Republicans in the Senate, Joe Biden in the White House,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: all saying to pass this bill, and Mike Johnson's just
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: going to hold it up. It's a lot of pressure.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: He could just decide, you know, I want to do
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: it because who cares, and I don't want to get
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: my ass vacated, but who knows.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: And every other time in recent history where that's happened,
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: and it happened a fair amount during the Obama years,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: the House would eventually buckle. It happened on fiscal cliff.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: It happened on extension of the payroll tax cut. It
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: happened on aid for victims of the Hurricane Sandy and
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: other natural disasters. But we were not in a world
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: where it only took one House Republican to throw the
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: entire thing in the chaos. It may be, and Johnson
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: may decide this, that the only option is to shut
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: the government down. Like he sort of has to drive
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: the car off the cliff to teach everyone in his
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: party that gravity exists, right?
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: So you have to- Still might not do it.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: It may fail. But under that, that's essentially what happened
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: in 2014 with that shutdown, when it was over Obamacare,
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: is that once the government was shut down, the political
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: pressure mounted so much that enough Republicans asked for, you
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: basically gave in, and that you could see that having
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: to happen again. But if the government shuts down, There's
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: not a great path for reopening it again with this
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: House under these dynamics.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Cool, cool.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's awesome.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Now for the fun stuff. For some reason, this is
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: the week that Republicans all over Capitol Hill lost their
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: final shreds of sanity and dignity with tantrums and meltdowns
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: so epic that they nearly led to several physical altercations.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: First up, James Comer, House Oversight Committee chair who's trying
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: to impeach Joe Biden for, among other things, loaning his
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: brother money when he wasn't even an elected official or
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: a candidate. Well, according to Story in the Daily Beast,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: it turns out that James Comer also paid his brother $ 200, 000, quote,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: related to the dealings of a family company that appears
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: to have never existed on paper. Who knows if it's
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: shady or not? It seems like it could be shady,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: but clearly the same thing that he's accusing Joe Biden
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: of doing. And so when Democrat Jared Moskowitz asked Comer
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: about the story during a hearing on Tuesday... Things got
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: a little heated. Let's listen.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: You all continue to, you look like a smurf here,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: just going around and all this stuff.
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: You have gone on TV and said the president did
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: something illegal.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: You're doing stuff with your brother. The American people have
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: the same questions. Why should they believe you? Mr. Chairman,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: this seems to have gotten under your skin. That bell
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: means this is the first of a couple fights that
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: we're about to talk about. Dan, what do you think
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: of the old I'm not a hypocritical crook, you're a
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Smurf play.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: Smurf feels like a very dated reference, I have to say.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: What a weird... Jared Moskowitz does not look like a Smurf.
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: Did you see what he was wearing?
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: No, but I just... He had on a particularly blue
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: suit this day, if I remember correctly.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: It is a dumb comment... not befitting a member of Congress,
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: let alone just a grown adult, but there was context
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: for it in the blue suit.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: Okay, well, that's fair.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: Look, I'm here just to give people the facts.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Point for Comer on that one.
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: just trying to give you and our listeners slash viewers
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: context for what's happening here.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: And just to give everyone some real info, Mike Johnson
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: the other day said there doesn't seem to be evidence
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: yet for an impeachment of Joe Biden. Well, guess what?
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: James Comer's flailing around in hearings and he's getting accused
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: of things that he's accusing Joe Biden for. He's got
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: no evidence. Doesn't seem like it's going well for them.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: Well, Mike Johnson put out a statement on Tuesday or Wednesday,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: I think, reiterating his belief that Joe Biden is committed
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: to impeachable offenses and that we should bring everyone in
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: under oath because every non-insane action in a Republican Congress
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: requires a much larger insane reaction. And so because he
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: passed this CR, he has to like triple down on.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: The fake impeachment. Yeah.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: Fight number two. This is when things get really good.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: At another hearing on Tuesday, right across the way on
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma, real person,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: real name, got so triggered by testimony from the president
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: of the Teamsters Union, Sean O'Brien, that he stood up
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: and challenged him to a fight. Sir, this is a time,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: this is a place.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: If you want to run your mouth, we can be
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: two consenting adults. We can finish it here. Okay, that's fine.
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: Perfect.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: You want to do it now?
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: I'd love to do it right now.
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: Well, stand your butt up then.
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: You stand your butt up.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Oh, hold on.
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: Oh, stop it. Is that your solution? No, no, sit down.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Hold it.
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: Answer the questions. All right, you all won.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: He made a lot of statements, right?
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: And his statements are fiction at best.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Fiction? I read them.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: What?
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: What?
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: I'll answer the question, please. I can't understand him, to
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: be honest with you.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Do you think Bernie Sanders woke up on Tuesday expecting
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: that he would have to stop one of his colleagues
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: from beating the shit out of one of his witnesses?
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Things in this day and age rarely exceed expectations. But
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: when I clicked on that link the other day, I
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: could not. It was one million times better than I thought.
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: It was unbelievable. Them standing up, the witness making fun
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: of him, just truly great stuff.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: I had heard of Mark Wayne Mullen before, but I
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: didn't know a lot about him. Senator from Oklahoma. This
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: did lead me to Google him. Oh, nice. Because he
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: was very mad that Sean O'Brien called him a greedy CEO.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: By the way, the whole hearing was about trying to
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: pass the PRO Act, which helps people join unions. Mark
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Wayne wanted everyone to know that he's not anti-union, but
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: he's tried to stop unions from being organized around his businesses.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: And he's worth over $ 30 million. And he is so extreme,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: he once said that if his wife's life were at
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: risk during pregnancy, he wouldn't want her to get an abortion.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: That's just a fun fact about Mark Wayne Mullen from Oklahoma.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: He is a person serving in the U.S. Senate, got up,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: tried to challenge this guy to a fight. Now, in
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: case you thought that Mark Wayne felt any kind of
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: shame over this incident, think again, because this is what
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: he said afterwards.
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: And keep in mind, too, this isn't anything new. Andrew
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: Jackson challenged two people or nine people to a duel
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: when he was president. And he also knocked one guy
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: out at a White House dinner. There's been canines before
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: in the Senate, too. Maybe we should bring some of
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: that back and it'll keep people from thinking they're so tough.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not afraid of biting.
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: I will bite. Biting?
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I'll bite 100%.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: I'm in a fight.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: I'm going to bite. I'll do anything.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not above it. And I don't care
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: where I bite, by the way.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: He wants to bite?
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: And he doesn't care where.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Alexander Hamilton never bit, by the way.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: Do you think someone in his staff proposed the caning
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: dueling talking points?
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, we should bring caning back. I'm going to
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: bite and I don't care where I bite. What is
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: going on in the U.S. Senate with Republicans?
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Look, the Senate is filled, the Congress in general, particularly
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: the Republican caucus in both the House and the Senate,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: is filled with a lot of very angry assholes who
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: don't like to work very much and have been working
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: for like a month straight. So I think they're all
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: at the end of their ropes and losing it.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Well, Dan, finally, we have saved the best for last.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Disgraced former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, known to his fans as
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: the backbencher from Bakersfield, seems like he is definitely not
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: over getting ousted by MAGA hardliners. They stabbed him in
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: the back. So he allegedly elbowed one of them in
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: the back also on Tuesday. Must have been a full moon.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: Here's Republican Tim Burchett on what went down and McCarthy's response.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: At that time, I got elbowed in the back and
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: it kind of caught me off guard because it was
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: a clean shot to the kidneys. And I turned back
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: and there was Kevin for a minute. I was kind of,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: what the heck just happened? And then I chased after him,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: of course. He's the type of guy that When you're
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a kid, would throw a rock over the fence and
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: run home and hide behind his mama's skirt. That's not
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the way we handle things in East Tennessee. If we
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: have a problem with somebody, I'm going to look them
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: in the eye.
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: If I would hit somebody, they would know I did.
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: He said he knew you.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: He said he was in pain that you hit him
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: so hard.
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: Oh, come on now.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: You just don't expect a guy who was at one
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: time three steps away from the White House to hit
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you with a sucker punch in the hallway.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, It feels like Kevin McCarthy
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: probably was that kid.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Oh, yeah.
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: 100%.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: Very perceptive. Tim Burchard, whoever you are.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: I think he kind of had him dead to rights
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: on that one.
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: Do we really think that Kevin McCarthy meant to elbow
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: a fellow member of Congress as walking by while he
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: was talking to an NPR reporter? What do you think?
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: I feel like this is a trick question. Like, what's
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: the right answer here? Like, am I defending Kevin McCarthy?
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I know. I'm not trying to get you to defend
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy or Tim Burchett. I'm honestly curious because it's like,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know. That seems like a risky move. Seems like,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you'd want to. It's just silly.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: I don't.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: A couple things. I would be surprised if his go-to
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: move is a running... Secret elbow to the kidney? That
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: doesn't seem right. That's what I'm saying. During live interviews.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Because in fairness, if you're talking to the press or
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: into a microphone and you're not paying attention, if someone
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: were to elbow me in the kidney right now, it
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: would come as a surprise. Second, when Kevin McCarthy said,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: if I hit them, they would know it, I find
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: that one also hard to believe.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Also very hard to believe.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: All these guys, whether it's Mark Wayne Mullen, the secret
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: spot biter, or... Tim Burchett. Just stop pretending to be tough.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: You are members of Congress.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Mark Wayne Mullen was a mixed martial arts expert. This
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: is what I also learned about Mark Wayne Mullen.
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: Kudos.
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: I don't want him elbowing me or biting me anywhere.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: When people, everyone's like, these guys are members of Congress.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: They should act better. They're adults. I don't care what
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: their job is. I don't care if you're in Congress,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: anything else, you just don't act like this. Let's not
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Let's not raise Congress up to a pedestal anywhere in
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: polite society. Don't elbow people. Don't chase after them. Don't
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: threaten them to a fight in the middle of nowhere
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: or in the middle of a hearing over nothing. Like
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: it basically like the equivalent of in someone's office during
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: a meeting, just standing up and trying to do that
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: across the conference room table. It's insane.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I've done that a few times with Lovett.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: I believe it. I believe it. In this case, who
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: are you, the secret elbower? Are you the.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: I'm not the elbower.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: Or the biter. Who is Lovett in this story? Jared Moskowitz?
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Of course, there's one more addendum to this story because
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: none of these morons can just let shit go. Here's
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Burchett giving a post-fight interview on Newsmax that got way
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: more interesting than anyone expected.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: He also has $ 17 million in an account that he'll
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: be messing in a lot of people like mine and
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Nancy Mace's campaigns, I'm sure.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: I don't know if he does that with Nancy Mace.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: She could come back at him with some stuff that
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: he doesn't want out there in the public, I think,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: if you know what I'm saying.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, she's already told me. She said, I hope he
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: does that with me, and she'll take care of him.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: What has Nancy Mace got on Kevin McCarthy of all
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: the things that we have talked about in this section?
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: That is the question I am left with more than
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: anything else.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to say about that, Sean. I
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: really don't.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Drop the goods, Newsmax guy.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: I'm going to be refreshing Punchbowl to see if Jake
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: Sherman delivers on the subscription money I pay him.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Speaking of people who don't belong in Congress,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: I realize this wasn't on the outline, but we have
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: to talk about it because it just happened. A bipartisan
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: ethics report from Congress that was just released Thursday morning
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: says there is, quote, substantial evidence that George Santos violated
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: criminal laws, which has led him to announce he will
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: not be running again in 2024, though he will probably
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: also face another expulsion vote in the House before then.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Among other things, the report says that Santos spent campaign
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: funds on Botox, designer goods, fancy trips to Atlantic City,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: And OnlyFans.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: The thing that is so good about this is I've
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: been in back-to-back meetings since early this morning at East
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: Coast time. And I am learning all of this for
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: the first time. and it is really it is glorious.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: I'm so happy to surprise you with this I knew.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: That the I knew that the ethics report came out
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: and you've never defeated from the outline before so I
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: thought I was safe but I had not read the
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: details yet and so I do want to quibble with
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: one thing as someone who grew up in the mid-atlantic
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: region there is no such thing as a fancy trip
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: to Atlantic City.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I've been there a few times and I understand what
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: you're saying yeah I thought you were going to say
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: someone who has an OnlyFans page.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: It's my sub-stack, John.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Which, as Tommy once suggested to you, you should call
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: it OnlyDance.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: Some people have an OnlyFans. Some people have a sub-stack.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: I'm more of the sub-stack crowd.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, OnlyDance. It could have been the message box title.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: That would have been so great.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: Oh, my God.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: That's such a good point.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: It does feel like this expulsion vote should go forward.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, we talked before about how, you know, Jamie Raskin,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Katie Porter, some other Democrats were like, We want him
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: to have due process. Part of the due process was
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: about like, you know, he's been indicted, but he hasn't
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: been convicted. But also that there hasn't even been a
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: House ethics process yet. Now there is a House ethics process.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: They had access to more evidence than the public about
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: George Santos's potential wrongdoing. And so the fact that the
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Ethics Committee now says, oh, yeah, he's probably committed a
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: crime and it's a bipartisan ethics committee. Yeah, I'd vote
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: for that expulsion. I don't know who wouldn't.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's it. I mean, I know who won't,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: the Republicans who can't afford to lose one House vote.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Right, right, right, right, right.
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: But among the Democrats.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: I meant among Democrats.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. And it really, and you know, we
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: talked about this after that vote, the, I think there
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: is a very legitimate argument that we should at least
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: let the, you don't, someone doesn't have to be convicted
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: to be expelled from Congress, but the official governing body
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: of the House should render or finish its investigation before
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: you have that, before you actually expel someone. So now
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: let's have, I'd be very interested to see how Republicans
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: vote on this.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Okay, back to our reality, where Democrats fight each other
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: with polling crosstabs and messaging memos. After a week where
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Democrats argued about the validity of a New York Times
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: poll taken a year before the election, the Progressive Change
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: Campaign Committee and Data for Progress did something useful. They
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: commissioned a poll that doesn't focus on the horse race,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: but on the most effective economic message for President Biden
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: and Democrats. We will dig into the data in a second,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: but the main takeaway... which they reportedly shared in a
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: meeting with White House officials, is that it is extremely
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: difficult to convince voters that the economy has improved and
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: much easier to persuade people that Biden's plans are better
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: than Trump's plans. Dan, what did you think of the
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: poll and the recommendations?
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: I think, as you said, an incredibly useful exercise, right?
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: For all of the complaining and screaming about polling, this
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: is what it's ultimately for. Not to tell us what's
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: going to happen, but how to give us the guidance
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: and strategic advice to get the outcome we want. And
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: I think there's two very incredibly useful findings here. The
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: first one is that we have to start by acknowledging
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: that people aren't happy with the economy. And I think
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: for a long time, particularly over the last six to
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: nine months, there's been this sense that perceptions of the
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: economy were a lagging indicator. The economy was actually getting
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: better because all the macroeconomic numbers suggest it is. So
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: people are eventually just going to wake up one day
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: and be happy about it. Or we're going to grab
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: them by the lapels via their TV screens and phone
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: screens and make them realize that. But I think the
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: persistent and growing negative perceptions about the economy, I think,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: suggest that there's something else going on. One, the macroeconomic
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: numbers we have used previously to suggest a good economy
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: through the lens of politics don't work anymore in the
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: same way. And our friend Mike Podhorzor was on Ezra
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: Klein's podcast, and he talked about this. And he made
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: the point that in previous eras, before we lived in
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: this world of really yawning economic inequality, prosperity was shared, right?
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Under Bill Clinton, for example, when GDP went up, everyone benefited.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: That's not how we live anymore, right? Those benefits are
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: not being distributed equally. That's one. Two, we talk about
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: inflation all of the time. And inflation is coming down
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: in a report today on wholesale prices that is now
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: actually below pandemic levels. But people don't care about how
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: much costs are going up. They care what costs are.
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: And then we still, I don't think we have a
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: way of understanding the political environment in a world of
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: interest rates. So I think we are past the point
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: of like trying to make people feel good about the
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: economy and try, we have to speak to where they are.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: Because as we've said before on questions of in politics,
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: the customer is always right. And this is where the
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: voters are. Then the other point is comparison. And what
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: I found really interesting in this poll was they tested
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: a number of messages and the best comparison against Trump
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: was that narrowed the gap on economic approval the most
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: had to do with Trump's support for big tax cuts
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: for corporations and supporting corporations. And so that's like a
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: real formula and roadmap for Democrats to adopt going forward
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: that I think can be very, very, very useful.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Just to dig in on this, because I think a
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: lot of folks have wondered if the media's refusal to
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: cover the improving economy or refusal to cover it extensively
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: enough has contributed to the bad feelings about the economy.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: So what they did in this poll, which I think
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: is very smart, is that they presented the poll respondents
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: with some information about the economy. They said, economists have
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: found that the rate of inflation is going down and
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: unemployment is at a record low. Which statement comes closer
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: to your view? One, the economy is not getting better
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: for people like me. Or two, the economy is getting
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: better for people like me. Not getting better, 70%. Is
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: getting better, 30%. And there's also, you know, there's been
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: some speculation that maybe people's views of the broader economy
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: is bad because the mute music is bad and all
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: they see the headlines are bad, but their personal financial
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: situation is good. This suggests that's not the case. Then
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: they added some messaging to the two choices and they
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: even gave them, you know, the economy is not going
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: in the right direction for people like me. We need
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: to change direction and reverse Biden's economic policies. Or we
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: should not return to the chaos created by Trump. Our
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: economy is beginning to turn a corner after a few
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: tough years felt across the world. I trust Biden more
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: than Trump to crack down on corporations that inflate the
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: price of gas and food and fight for people like me.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: That brought it down to 50% Trump, 43% the Biden statement.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: And so it's like it narrowed it a little bit,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: but it's still... the statement, we need to change direction
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: and reverse Biden's economic policies, still won out, even when
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: you had that messaging. And to your point, what really
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: changed the polling was talking about both of their visions
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: for the future and what Biden and the Democrats would
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: do and what Trump and the Republicans would do. And
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: so when you say like the most effective statement, which
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: made people trust the Democrats 15 points more than Republicans
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: on the economy was Democrats support increasing social security benefits
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: increasing taxes on billionaires, and fighting big drug companies to
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: lower prescription drug costs. That made people trust Democrats more
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: than Republicans on the economy. So I do think it's about, like,
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: it is about recognizing that people are still struggling, that
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: costs are still high, that prices are still high, even
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: though inflation's coming down, and that Joe Biden and the
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: Democrats have been fighting on your behalf and will continue
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: to fight on your behalf if you return them to office.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: If you return Trump to office and the Republicans... this
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: is what they did last time they were in office,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: cut taxes for billionaires, and this is their plan going forward.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: And I think that is a message that's going to
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: be much more effective, gives Democrats a lot better chance
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: than just saying over and over again, look how many
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: jobs we created, look how many of this we created,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: the media's wrong, the media, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: It's not going to work.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: It's not going to work.
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, it really shouldn't be that complicated. And there
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: is this level, I think, of elitism in this idea
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: that these people are all just too dumb to realize
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: how great the economy is.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Yes, such elitism.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Which has been pervasive in not all and not even
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: most democratic messaging, but in a lot of the political
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: conversation around the economy is that view. People are getting
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: their cues from CNN, not their bank account or their
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: grocery bill or trying to figure out how to pay
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: the basic cost of living. It's really not that complicated
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: and the messages here are the ones that have worked
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: in every campaign prior. And so we just have to
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: do that.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Now you've written about other polling that shows more people
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: approve of Joe Biden when they hear about his accomplishments.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Is that because telling people about his economic accomplishments is
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: different than telling people that the economy is good or
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: that he fixed the economy?
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: I think that there is sometimes a sense in politics
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: that reelection campaigns, whether you're running for mayor, Congress, Senate,
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: or president, is like a report card where it's like,
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: if you do these things, the voters are going to
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: thank you by sending you back to office. And that
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: is the exact opposite.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Of how it works.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: People are not going to vote for you for what
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: you've done. They're going to vote for you on what
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: you're going to do. And these accomplishments are not so
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: people say, oh, thank goodness Biden brought us this economy.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: Because there is some tension of saying, look at all
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: these great things you did. And the economy is also
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: not yet great. The reason you have to tell people
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: these things is it gives them a foundation for of
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: belief of what you're going to do going forward. It
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: builds credibility with voters. And because of changes in the
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: media environment, voters have never, ever in time been more
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: ignorant about the huge things that president has done than
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: they are with Joe Biden right now. I mean, it
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: is mind boggling. Like the Inflation Reduction Act should be
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: akin to either the stimulus or the Affordable Care Act
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: under Obama. And now those things may not have been
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: popular in their time, but they were known. Here you
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: have all these popular things and no one knows. And
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: if you tell that to people, it gives them a
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: reason to believe that Joe Biden can do more things
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: like that in the future. If they think he has
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: done nothing in the first term, why would they elect
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: him in the second? Or why would they believe him
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: when he says he wants to do X, Y, and
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: Z in the second term?
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: And I think part of the reason they're not as
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: known is the information environment, as you said, but also
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: there's a huge fight over the Affordable Care Act and
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: a huge fight over even the recovery act. And I
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: think the inflation reduction act, while, you know, most Republicans
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: voted against it, the fight was about like what Joe
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: Manchin would allow in the bill. And then it passed
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: and it just didn't break through. And then the Republicans
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: did not spend a lot of time attacking it after
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: it passed. They kind of moved on to the next,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: you know, crazy conspiracy theory.
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah. It, it helped the knowledge of an approval of
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Obamacare immensely. The Republicans kept trying to repeal it every
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: two seconds.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: Yep. So the economy is usually the number one issue
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: for voters in every poll, but abortion is right up there, too,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: especially for Democratic voters. Biden wants to pass a law
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: protecting abortion access for every American. Trump's out there bragging
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: about ending Roe v. Wade. And yet this week, The
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: New York Times wrote that Trump is, quote, showing surprising
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: resilience on the abortion issue, appearing less vulnerable than fellow Republicans,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: despite his key role in shaping the Supreme Court that
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: overturned Roe v.
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: Wade.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Story made a lot of people on the internet very mad,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: including the Biden campaign, which criticized the media and specifically
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: the Times for its Trump coverage. What do you think?
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Is Trump less vulnerable on abortion than the typical Republican?
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to do one of those very
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: positive America-like things where we try to hold two competing
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: notions in our head at the same time. I think
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: it is fair to say.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: Everything is binary, left and right, black and white.
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: I think it is fair to say that overall, the
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: press coverage of Trump is not as good as it
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: should be, right? It is too often through horse race coverage,
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: not actually focusing on what he's doing. Although I will say,
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: the Times has written a lot of stories recently in
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: great detail about all the terrible things Trump plans to
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: do if he wins.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just because it's longer than a tweet, their very long,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: well-reported story about his fucking terrifying immigration plans was outstanding.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: All the Project 2025 stuff from The Times and others,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: that stuff is happening. Now, people aren't seeing it in
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: the way we'd want them to see it because of
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: the information environment, because long stories don't get attention like
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: they used to. The anger over this specific story, which
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: is written for the Upshot column, which is basically a
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: polling analysis column for The New York Times, seems a
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: little misplaced to me, I will say. Yes, the problem
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: being pointed at is correct broadly. This was not probably
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: the right target for that. Because what that article says
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: is actually true. We should stipulate that Donald Trump is
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: absolutely vulnerable in abortion because he is the person walking
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: this planet most singularly responsible for overturning Roe v.
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: Wade. Yes.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: He is absolutely incredibly vulnerable on it. But voters don't
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: yet hold him accountable in the way they should. And
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: there are a couple of reasons for this. One, If
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: you listen to focus groups or you listen to the
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: focus group podcast from Sarah Longwell, who just had an
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: episode on this, if you ask Donald Trump if he
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: is anti-abortion or pro-choice, a shocking number of voters will
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: say he is personally pro-choice. And some of them, and
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: I've heard this from multiple people who do focus groups,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: will put up their hands and say, I would bet
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump is personally paid for abortions.
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Because he is this thrice-married, New York, sad, wannabe playboy
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: who cheats on his wives, people, he has this sort
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: of aura of liberalism on cultural issues that has allowed
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: him to win over voters he wouldn't otherwise get. And
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: you see it in the polling, right? In that Times poll,
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: which is what this godforsaken, horribly derided piece was written on,
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: Biden has a nine-point advantage on the issue of abortion.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: It's one of his biggest issue margins ever. across the thing.
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: But Trump gets 14% of the voters who trust Biden
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: more on abortion.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Well, and in that same poll, four out of 10
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: Trump voters believe abortion should be always or mostly legal.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: That's a big chunk of his... That shows that either
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: people don't consider voting for him again a threat to
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: abortion access, or they... don't agree with his position on
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: abortion and know it, but are voting for him for
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: other reasons.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: There's a very interesting question in that Times report where
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: they ask people what was more important to their choice
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: for president, economic issues like jobs, inflation, et cetera, or
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: social issues like abortion, democracy, and guns. Economic issues won
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: by more than 30 points. And that is a number
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: that's gone up 12 points in four battleground states since 2022.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: So what should Democrats do here besides tweet at the Times,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: cancel our subscriptions, all that kind of stuff?
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: We need to challenge Joe Kahn, who I think is
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: the editor of the Times now, to a fight.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: By being allowed or not allowed?
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: Look, everyone can bring one weapon to the combat.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: Elbows.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: If you want your teeth to be.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: The weapon, you can do that.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Elbows to the kidneys.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: That's okay.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Look, I think there are a couple of things here.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: One- There is, and I think this is one point
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: where the critics of the broader coverage of Trump on
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: abortion are correct. It's always like, Donald Trump has been
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: so careful on abortion. He's so smooth on it. The
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: guy brags about overturning Roe v. Wade every time he's
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: in front of a microphone. There is a internet's worth
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: of clips of Donald Trump saying incredibly damning, unpopular, extreme
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: things about abortion all within the last year.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: And a half.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: Also, there's a very famous one from the 2016 campaign
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: where he says, uh, women deserve some sort of punishment.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: Yes. Yes.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: And of course the can't, their campaign of course knew
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: how damaging that was. And then they later tried to
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: walk it back, but he is on video saying, yes,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: women deserve punishment.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: And so we should be shut. We, the broader us
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: with our networks and our friends and family and democratic
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: super PACs and campaigns showing those clips to people just
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: in their own words. We don't need fancy political ads.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: We don't need voiceovers. Just like video of Trump saying
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: those things. over and over again. Do you remember in
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: 2012 when we polled early in that campaign and we
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: discovered that Mitt Romney's support for defunding Planned Parenthood was
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: incredibly damning? Voters hated that. It's a very analogous situation.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Voters also didn't believe that Mitt Romney would actually support
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: that position because he had been this pro-choice governor of Massachusetts.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: It's very similar to Trump in the sense that people
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: thought he's kind of faking it on the social stuff
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: to get through the primary. And so the Obama campaign
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: went up in, I think it was April, with sort
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: of a low-level cable buy that was very targeted at
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: women voters and also young voters about Romney wanting to
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: defund Planned Parenthood. It just stayed up. And it went
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: up and never came down. And I think you can
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: see a similar thing happening here where you try to
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: do that. Now, the second thing I think we ought
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: to do, and you see this in the Times poll,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: where even one of the most unpopular things that the
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: Times polled is support for a federal abortion ban.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: There's even a significant number of people who strongly oppose
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: the federal abortion ban who are voting for Trump. And
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: I think that's in part because it may be they're
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: prioritizing other issues, but in some cases, they don't think
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: a federal abortion ban is going to happen. And so
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: we talked about this last week. We have to make
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: that a central part of this campaign. Every single day,
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump wins with a Republican Congress federal abortion ban.
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: And I think that's really important because in a lot
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: of states, because of the great work that happened in 2022,
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: like whether it's Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, they have
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: Democratic governors. They've, in Michigan's case, passed an abortion referendum.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: to guarantee access. And we need people to understand in
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: those battleground states, even if they feel safe right now
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: in this very short period of time, that a Trump
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: victory would mean abortion is banned everywhere in this country.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: There was also a story in Axios this week. The
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Heritage Foundation, which is the idiots behind Project 2025, is
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: urging all Republican candidates for president to unilaterally prohibit mailing
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: abortion drugs, which are the most common, safe, and effective
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: ways of getting an abortion. Trump has been vague about this.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: But Republican senators said that they insist the next president
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: does this. Obviously, Maga Mike Johnson in the House wants
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: this to happen. So this is not even you don't
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: even have to put Congress into the equation here. Donald
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Trump could unilaterally ban abortion medication. And yes, it would
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: go up to the Supreme Court. And there's all kinds
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: of legal theories whether that would hold up or not.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: But he could do that. And I'm sure. And so
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: I would run those ads now and also force him
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: to have to answer it now while it's still a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: primary ad. start running the ads now about how the
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Heritage Foundation and all these people that are doing Donald
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: Trump's plans for 2025 want him to unilaterally end the
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: ability to mail prescription abortion medication. So I think that's a,
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: it's gotta be perspective because I think you can, a
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: lot of people, you can get a lot of people
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: to believe that he's the one responsible for overturning Roe v.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Wade because he brags about it all the time, but
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: people are going to vote based on what is going
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: to happen to me and my life if this person
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: becomes president. And so we have to push towards Trump's
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: plans for the future as much as we talk about
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: things that he's done in the past.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: Democrats also in 2022 talked about, you know, Biden said,
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: give me a filibuster proof Senate majority and we will
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: pass a law codifying Roe. And we should get back
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: to that because we haven't heard a lot about that
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: in a year. And I think that's an important part
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: of this campaign. There are going to be states where
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: like potentially Arizona and others that have abortion referendums that
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: guarantee abortion access like the one we just saw in Ohio.
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: But we should do that. And I think you raise
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: a really important point here, which is Donald Trump is
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: going to put all of the worst people in government,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: like MAGA Mike Johnson clone bureaucrats, and they're going to
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: use every lever of power they possibly can. possibly have
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: to try to destroy reproductive freedom in this country. It's
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: banning abortion medication, everything they do. Everything that Joe Biden,
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: his administration tried to do after the Dobbs ruling, they're
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: going to undo that and do things a thousand times
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: worse because they're going to care a lot less about
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: what is legal and appropriate uses of government, et cetera.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: And it is a nightmare. An election of Donald Trump
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: as president, whether it gets a Republican House, Republican Senate
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: or not, is a nightmare for reproductive freedom in this country.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Agreed.
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Few quick housekeeping notes before we head to break. We
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: are excited to announce Inside 2024, our new monthly podcast
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: series available exclusively for Friends of the Pod subscribers. Shows
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: a chance to hear White House alumni. Like some of
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: us talk about what really goes on behind the scenes
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: of a presidential campaign, everything from debate prep and convention
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: speeches to campaign ads and botched media appearances to get
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: access to inside 2024. Join our community over at friends
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: of the pod by signing up at crooked.com slash friends.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: It's going to be a Dan and Alyssa episode soon.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: It's going to be even better than the me and
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Tommy episode. That's out now. Lots of great stuff coming up.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Also here at crooked. We love carry Uma and they're comfortable, cool,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: sustainably made sneakers. We love them so much. The crooked
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: released our second collaboration with them. I love it or
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: leave it. Sneaker. They come in pink and black and
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: have really fun L.A.-inspired designs. Now's the perfect time to
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: step up your shoe game. Plus, Kariuma plants two trees
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: in the Brazilian rainforest for each pair purchased. Head to cricket.com
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: slash store to grab a pair. When we come back,
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: I talk to young voter polling expert John De La Volpe.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Joining us today, he's a pollster
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: who's been focused on understanding young voters for the last
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: few decades, and he most recently served as an advisor
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: to Joe Biden's 2020 campaign. He now says that when
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: it comes to young voters, the president is in trouble.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: John Della Volpe, good talking to you again. Welcome to
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: the show.
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: Thanks so much for having me, John. It's great to
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: be here.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: So when you and I last spoke before the 2022 midterms,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: you were confident that young voters would turn out in
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: big numbers and and potentially make the difference for Democratic candidates.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: You were right. You do not seem as confident that
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: young voters will do the same in 2024 for Joe Biden.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: What changed over the last few years?
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: Well, over the last few months, actually, over the last year, John,
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: for me, the best predictor of whether we can expect
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: an average, above average or below average turnout are a
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: set of attitudinal measures that we developed over a couple
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: of decades ago. And those attitudinal measures, when I look
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: at that set of data in 2023 compared to the
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: same point in the 2020 cycle in spring of 2019,
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: I see increasing levels of cynicism across just about every
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: significant socioeconomic and demographic group, which means that there is
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: less confidence not just about Joe Biden, but there's less
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: confidence in the system. There's less confidence in politics can
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: serve the people and to make the systemic changes that
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: young people care about. That's the warning sign that I'm
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: most concerned about right now.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: And I guess if you look back over the last
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: year or two, is this increasing sense of cynicism about government?
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: Has it just built gradually over time and now it's
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: really hit a breaking point?
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of it is about expectations. So
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: just to give you a little bit more of a
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: backdrop on this, from 2014 to 2018, we saw cynicism
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: went down by, I think, 15 or 16 or 17
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: points as youth participation increased by that same number, 16,
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: 17 points from 2014 to 2018. This is a relatively
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: new phenomenon. And I think it's certainly complicated. There's not
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: a silver bullet. There's not an easy explanation. I think
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: it has a variety of different reasons behind it, one
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: of which is, of course, the challenges of communicating, especially
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: from the bully pulpit, you know, in a kind of algorithmic,
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: you know, series of bubbles that people find themselves in.
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: But I think another part of this conundrum, frankly, is
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: that because of the concern around mental health, both pre
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: and post COVID, what we've continued to find is this
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: connection between negative feelings about the country, the direction of
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: the country, and negative feelings about mental health, which means, John,
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: that younger people, millions of younger people are choosing to
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: turn away from current events, choosing to turn away from
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: the news to protect their own mental health because there's
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: a correlation around that, which means that they're less willing,
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: less able to see some of the positive news that's
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: been happening. Because as I've written many times, I don't
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: think there's been an administration, certainly in my lifetime, that's
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: been more youth focused, more youth centric than the Biden administration. However,
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: A lot of those accomplishments just aren't being felt yet
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: or being communicated in ways in which they can understand.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: That's fascinating to me. Do you have data that points
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: to young people disengaging from the news to protect their
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: mental health? Because the other, you could also see a
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: factor being just the media environment itself has become so
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: fractured that if someone is let's say, only getting their
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: news from TikTok or Twitter or wherever it may be,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: they are in either an ideological bubble or some kind
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: of other bubble where they're getting just not the good
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: information or not the best information.
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: So a couple of things, one of which is the
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: more you follow the news, the more closely you follow
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: the news, the more closely you follow politics, the more
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: likely you are to support President Biden's reelection, right? So
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: we've seen that for a while. The more you know,
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: the better off that campaign feels. to people. But I
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: published a study on my on my sub stack, J.D.V.
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: on Gen Z. And it had it was about how
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: happy are you? OK. And it had 30 something variables.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: And I looked at across generations. The best predictor of
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: whether or not a Gen Z or a young millennial
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: was happy that particular day was their views about basically politics,
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: the instability of that they felt the concerns about climate,
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: the economy, our place in the world. That was the
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: number one predictor, more than personal relationships, work, school, their finances,
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: et cetera. When we looked at other generations, Gen Xers
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: and folks older, the number one predictor wasn't politics, though
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: that was important. It was health, your health and the
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: health of those around you. So I think that's something
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: that really needs to be understood because before, this isn't
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: just a persuasion mobilization game at this point. before that
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: we can have a meaningful conversation with young people, we
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: need to kind of respect kind of where they are,
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: where their mental health, and we also need to basically
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: show them the impact that they've already made, that we
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: have a different and better country because of them.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: One thing I'm confused about, though, is if you would
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: think that the people who are most engaged with the
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: news and following the news most closely would... be pretty
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: bummed out. But you're saying that those people do tend
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: to vote for Joe Biden, but it's the people who
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: are more disengaged. Are they disengaged from the news, but
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: just have a general sense or general feeling that there's
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: chaos in the world and that things are going bad
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: and that politics is going bad just from their periodic
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: scanning of headlines?
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: Yes, because those are the headlines that stick, right? The
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: negative headlines, you know, and the extreme amount of chaos
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: that they've not just felt over the last year or two,
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: but literally, John, over their entire lifetimes, right? This is
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: a generation, Gen Z, which has really not known maybe
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: an evening of hope in optimism in 2008, right? But
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: they don't remember 9-11, which means They don't have a
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: memory of 9-11, which means they don't have a memory
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: of September 12th and 13th when we all put flags up,
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: regardless of which kind of red or blue county we're in.
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: So it's just not just the chaos of today. It's
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: this chaos that's been that's been building up over the
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: course of their lifetimes.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: So you just did an audio essay for The New
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: York Times where you played a few clips from a
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: recent focus group you conducted with young voters. Let's take
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: a listen.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: I vote. I just don't think it makes a difference sometimes.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah, they for us, but.
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: Are they really for us? Really?
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: So the comments from the young voters in that group
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: reminded me of what you call the modern trickle-down effect theory.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: Can you explain that for people?
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: Sure. Well, the original trickle-down effect was supposed to be positive, right?
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: During the kind of Reagan era, the idea was that
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: the super wealthy and corporations, the more money they made,
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: the more that would trickle down to help the working
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: class folks. Instead, what I've heard in multiple focus groups
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: over the last couple of months is that rather than
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: the wealth trickling down and making all of us feel
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: better off, it's the reverse. It's a negative trickle-down effect
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: where the problems, the challenges, the wars from previous generations
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: are trickling down and having an inordinate impact on those
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: who are most vulnerable. And again, that gets to, I think,
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: kind of the cynicism that is driving much of the
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: disaffection with two-party politics today.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: So in some ways it's generational, not even in a
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: left-right divide, but almost a top-bottom, which is like young
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: people feeling like the older generations have screwed so much
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: shit up for them and that the people in power
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: are also you know, in older generations. And so they
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: take some, they, you know, hold them accountable for that. Right.
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: It's something that connects Democrats, Republicans, independents alike, you know,
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: and there are many examples of that where, where younger people,
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: even across personal lines have more in common than younger
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: Democrats and older Democrats, younger Republicans and older Republicans. The
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: thing is, and the thing that to me is often
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: frustrating is that this is a generation who, despite the cynicism,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: every single year are becoming more progressive, right? Who are asking,
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: they understand that we need government to work in collaboration
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: with other institutions, private, et cetera, to solve these challenges.
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: So they're not like, disagreeing. Their values are aligned with
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: the Democratic Party. They're just not seeing the Democratic Party
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: right now as delivering as much as what I think
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: they've actually delivered over the last couple of years.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: To be honest.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: You were saying in early November that the president's handling
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: of the war in Gaza could cost him potentially decisive
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: support among younger voters. Can you talk about where most
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: young voters are on this issue and what you think
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: Biden can do to keep or regain their support?
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: It's obviously an incredibly complex issue. I did a review
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: of the polls in the second half of October. And
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: when you look at overall approval ratings among younger people
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: towards Biden's handling of Israel and Hamas and Gaza, only
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: about a quarter or so said they approved. And that
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: was basically on the low end of a series of issues.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: So they disapprove of him more on this issue than
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: other issues. And what is... of concern is really about
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: a potential disconnect over values. That what young people, specifically
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: young progressives, who were so critical to not just voting,
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: but the energy around the 2020 cycle, they're concerned about
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: a lack of recognition for civilian life on both sides
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: of that border. And that's, I think, what is really
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: kind of driving this. They don't support Hamas, of course,
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: They see what happened October 7th as a savage terrorist attack,
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: but they also are more upfront in terms of basically
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: completing to have new thinking around the best ways to
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: protect civilian children, women, etc.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, it seems like there's only... What Joe Biden
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: can do about this is either... join the calls for
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: a ceasefire or somehow condition aid to Israel based on
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Israel taking different actions or conducting the war differently. It
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: feels to me, and you tell me because you've been
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: in the data, that this is more than a Joe
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Biden can fix this problem by, you know, talking more
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: to some of these young voters and reengaging them. It
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: feels like they need a policy decision here or that
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: feeling's not really going to go away.
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: I think young people want to see the president as
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: a peacemaker, right? They want to feel good about the president.
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: They want to feel good about themselves and the country.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: And the degree, we talked about them watching a lot
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: less news, and there's a lot of data that indicates that.
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: They're basically watching 39% less news, according to Pew, than
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: they did at the same time during the Trump administration.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: So some of the news that is breaking through are
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: obviously the horrific images on October 7th and beyond. And
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: that just is something that really, I think, is having
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: a greater impact on how younger people are thinking about
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: politics and government than some people might otherwise suggest.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: Beyond Gaza, what else do you think the Biden campaign
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: and Democratic candidates should do over the next year to
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: win the votes of younger voters?
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: I think it's a It's not a one step, it's
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: a two or three step system. The first thing they
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: need to do is they need to recognize, as I
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: said earlier, that there's a better country because of what
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: young people did before. President Biden, Vice President Harris are
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: not in office. Donald Trump is without younger people. And
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: what that means is we have the first African-American female
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: in the Supreme Court. We have the first significant gun
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: violence prevention legislation in not one but two generations. The
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: largest investment in climate, $ 127 billion last I counted. in
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: student debt relief, and we can go further. So I
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: think the first thing is to recognize the important part
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: that young people played, thank them for that, recognize that,
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: and let them know what has been delivered. But then
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: to say there's no guarantee that obviously any of this
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: continues without kind of further engagement. So I think they
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: really need to kind of build some trust that being
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: part of a system actually had tangible results. That's the
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: first part. And then the second part is it's a
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: very different electorate. They need to also kind of build
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: messaging around that a vote for Bobby Kennedy, a vote
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: for Cornel West, a vote for anybody other than Biden
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: or staying home is a vote to reelect Trump. And
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: they'll have to be reminded in terms of what that means.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: I was going to ask about that because it's a
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: sort of a delicate question. thing to handle. Obviously, young
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: people choosing third party or independent candidates or choosing not
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: to vote at all seems like an especially serious threat
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: to the president's reelection. And of course, if the president loses,
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: as you mentioned, we get Donald Trump. What would you
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: say to a young voter who is considering one of
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: those options? Because there's some debate whether you say, oh, well,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: if you're doing this, you're just going to vote for
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And then that sort of puts people on
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: their heels and say, well, you know, it's my choice
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: and why are you telling me what to do? Or
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: do you say, you know, these third-party independent candidates, they
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: are not going to be able to fulfill the promises
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: they're making because they're not going to win? How would
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: you handle that?
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: I don't think I would even think about handling that
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: now for, you know, for nine months. Instead, what you
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: need to do is understand why they're looking at third-party candidates, right?
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: They're looking at third-party candidates because they don't think that,
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: as you heard in the clip, that they don't think
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: that voting has made a significant difference in their lives
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: or the lives of those people that they care about.
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: And I think it really needs to focus on the
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: tangible difference that government has and will continue to make
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: when they engage. I think that's going to be critical.
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: And thinking about messaging and comparing yourselves to third-party candidates,
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: it's not going to be as effective if they don't
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: have trust in the system.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you've been talking a lot about sort of focusing
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: on like communicating Joe Biden's accomplishment, the Democrats' accomplishments. How
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: much would you focus on that versus focusing on the
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: contrast between both Biden's accomplishment and his forward-looking vision and
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: what Trump would do in a second term?
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: Certainly, there's, I think what we learned from 2022, right,
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: is there is that balance, that chemistry between positive and
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: negative partisanship, right? Certainly, there was concern about Americans continuing
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: to feel like they're losing their rights. And we saw
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: how many rights were lost because of Trump's Supreme Court.
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: So absolutely, that has to be an important factor of this.
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: But listen, John, I don't know at this point what
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: the right mix of cocktail is between the negative and
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: the positive partisanship. All I know is that we need to.
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: And listen, that's why I wrote that. Listen, I didn't
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: write that headline. Of course, you know, they have editors,
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: the New York Times who write headlines. But I do
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: think that your listeners and the people who support democratic
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: campaigns and causes need to appreciate the fact that despite
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: the fact we've had three incredible turnouts among young people,
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: we can't guarantee that. Every cohort is new, it's different,
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: and we need to kind of build up faith in
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: the system. But of course, I think there will be
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: a significant part of the contrast. I think when I
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: look back at 2018, that was, I think, a right combination.
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: You had the deep concern about the first couple of
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: years of Trump administration with the hope of what the
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: March for Our Lives with David Hogg and his friends
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: were doing. That was an interesting, I think, combination of factors,
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: I think, that really lifted youth support. And it's going
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: to be something similar because it's a terrific story. There's
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: a terrific story. I think, you know, when Vice President
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: Harris was on her college tour, she had incredibly enthusiastic audiences.
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: She literally showed up where they were, not just on
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: social media, but literally kind of, you know, in the
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: quads and in the auditoriums of some of these colleges.
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: And she spoke to young people. She listened to young people.
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: And I think they responded. And I'm hopeful and expect
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: that Democrats can do this. But again, the reason I,
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: you know, wrote those pieces and have been thinking about
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: this is these underlying concerns I have from the attitudinal
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: data that has been highly predictive for now a couple
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: of different decades. And the sooner that we recognize that,
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: the more I think we can all engage in helping
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: young people appreciate the importance of civic life and participating
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: specifically in this next campaign.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Well, last question, you mentioned Vice President Harris sort of
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: going where voters are. In a media environment or an
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: information environment that is this fractured, This rampant with misinformation
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: on platforms or emotional polarizing content. Like, what's the best
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: way to communicate? Who are the best, most trusted messengers
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: to reach young voters where they are?
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: I think other young voters i think other young voters
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: and i think the white house honestly you know you
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: probably know better than i but the white house i
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: think the first couple years have done a terrific job
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: at at empowering kind of younger activists bringing them kind
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: of inside to to share some of their accomplishments to
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: listen for um to listen for advice on other ones.
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: And I think that was a big part of the
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: democratic success in 2020, in 2022 midterms, a big part
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: that you had kind of alignment among many of these
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: progressive groups. And we need to continue to do that.
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: I sense, based upon the number of text messages I
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: have on my phone, that some of those progressive activists
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: are questioning some things now, which is related to Israel
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: and Gaza and Hamas. But it's really about, I think,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: kind of empowering those kind of micro, whatever you want
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: to call those, micro-influencers, those everyday folks and mentors to communicate.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: It has to be, of course, from the top down,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: that needs to be improved, but certainly kind of on the,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: you know, from the grassroots up.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: John DeLaVolpe, thank you so much for joining Pod Save
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: America again and talking us through this and keep in
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: touch over the next year.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: Will do.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: Thanks to John Della Volpe for joining us today. Everyone
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: have a fantastic weekend and we'll talk to you next week.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: Bye everyone.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producers
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: are Olivia Martinez and David Toledo. Our associate producer is
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: Farah Safari. Writing support from Hallie Kiefer. Reid Cherlin is
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: our executive producer. The show is mixed and edited by
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Madeline Herringer is
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: our head of news and programming. Matt DeGroat is our
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: David Tolles, Kirill Pelleviv, and Molly Lobel. Subscribe to Pod
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Save America on YouTube to catch full episodes and extra
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: video content. Find us at youtube.com slash at Pod Save America. Finally,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: you can join our Friends of the Pod subscription community
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: for ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and a great discussion on Discord. Plus,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: it's a great way to get involved with Vote Save America.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: Sign up at crooked.com slash friends.