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Transcript

Hedges, Hikes, and High Oil: Managing the Market Pullback · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast .
• 0:04
  I am your host , Barnaby Bullish , and it is great to be with you as we navigate these choppy waters together .
• 0:10
  It is currently 2:30 pm on Tuesday , September 29th , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:18
  We provide these updates every few hours because , as you know , the market never stays still for long .
• 0:24
  Today we are seeing a bit of a pullback across the major benchmarks .
• 0:29
  The S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY , is trading around 7,670 , down about point two percent .
• 0:37
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , is also slightly lower as those tech giants take a bit of a breather .
• 0:44
  The Dow Jones is the biggest laggard today , down about 300 points , largely because bluechip names like Apple and Walmart are under some pressure .
• 0:53
  The big story continues to be the geopolitical conflict with Iran .
• 0:58
  With oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted , we are seeing a supplyshock inflation environment .
• 1:05
  Oil is hovering around 92 dollars a barrel , and that is pushing headline inflation to 3.7 percent , which is well above what the Federal Reserve wants to see .
• 1:16
  Speaking of the Fed , Chair Kevin Warsh recently raised the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent , and he is signaling another hike could be coming before the year is out .
• 1:28
  This has pushed the 10year Treasury yield past 5 percent , a level we havent seen in twenty years .
• 1:35
  We are also keeping an eye on the Buffett Indicator , which is currently blinking red , suggesting that the market might be a bit overvalued compared to the actual economy .
• 1:45
  Looking at the sectors , Energy is the clear winner today .
• 1:49
  With those high oil prices , the XLE fund is generating massive cash flow .
• 1:55
  On the flip side , Real Estate and Utilities are struggling because high yields make their dividends look less attractive .
• 2:03
  In company news , Nvidia is making waves with a recordbreaking 150 billion dollar stock buyback and a new safety platform to keep AI agents in check .
• 2:14
  Apple is trying to change the game by launching new Mac hardware that runs AI locally , which might help them stay competitive without relying on expensive cloud data centers .
• 2:25
  We also saw a massive 13 percent surge in Carnival Corporation today because , believe it or not , highend travel bookings are still hitting record highs .
• 2:35
  And do not sleep on Intel ; they are up 38 percent this month as companies like Amazon and Nvidia look at their new 14A manufacturing node .
• 2:45
  So , what should you do with your money right now ?
• 2:48
  For defensive stability , I like Gold .
• 2:51
  The GLD ETF is a great way to hedge against this Middle East conflict and inflation , especially with gold at over 4,000 dollars an ounce .
• 3:01
  If you are looking for income and inflation protection , stick with Energy through the XLE or a giant like ExxonMobil .
• 3:08
  As long as that conflict in the Middle East persists , energy companies are going to be in a strong position .
• 3:15
  For quality growth , even with high valuations , Nvidia remains the leader in the AI arms race .
• 3:22
  You can also look at the QQQ for broader tech exposure .
• 3:26
  Finally , for a bit of a contrarian play , Financials like the XLF might be worth a look .
• 3:31
  If we avoid a hard landing , banks will benefit from these high interest rates .
• 3:36
  Just be careful with longterm bonds right now ; the TLT looks risky while those Treasury yields are still climbing .
• 3:43
  Stay disciplined out there , keep an eye on those yields , and I will be back in a few hours with another update .
• 3:50
  Happy trading !