Latest / Financial Survival Network / Market Meltdown: Dissecting the Recent Crash - Ed Siddel #6122
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there really is a tail of two cities, right.
- 0:04Speaker 1: You know, you've got the difference between Main Street and
- 0:08Speaker 1: Wall Street. And you're talking about the working poor, Well,
- 0:10Speaker 1: the reality is, I mean the middle class they're becoming
- 0:12Speaker 1: the working poor. You know, here in Ohio they passed
- 0:16Speaker 1: a rating increase just for power electricity that kicked in
- 0:21Speaker 1: the summer, and so people's utility bills went up as
- 0:24Speaker 1: much as thirty percent. You know, not to mention the increase.
- 0:28Speaker 1: You know, every time we go to the pumps and
- 0:30Speaker 1: to the grocery store. So in taxes, right, I mean,
- 0:34Speaker 1: the property taxes, everything has just been increasing, and so
- 0:38Speaker 1: you know, people continue. We've had more people borrow against
- 0:42Speaker 1: the retirement accounts. They're four to one keys now than
- 0:45Speaker 1: they did. You know in two thousand and eight and
- 0:47Speaker 1: two thousand and nine.
- 0:48Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let's as Financial Survival Network
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- 1:16Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
- 1:19Speaker 3: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Letz. Hey, it's August sixth.
- 1:24Speaker 3: This first week of August has been mind blowing here.
- 1:29Speaker 3: The brash in the markets, I mean, I guess it
- 1:32Speaker 3: qualifies as a crash. Is this the start of something bigger?
- 1:36Speaker 3: Or is there something else afoot here? And Sidell is
- 1:42Speaker 3: with us now, Ed. It's great to have you back. Hey.
- 1:46Speaker 3: I'd like to be laughing like our vice president here,
- 1:49Speaker 3: but I just can't find it in myself.
- 1:52Speaker 1: Oh yeah, there's not a whole lot of things to
- 1:54Speaker 1: be laughing at for for sure, But thanks for having
- 1:56Speaker 1: me back. Yeah. You know, I think what we're seeing
- 2:00Speaker 1: right now, Carrie, is you know, we saw some profit
- 2:03Speaker 1: taking followed by by panic, and honestly, I think this
- 2:09Speaker 1: is what the feds. I mean, they've been reactionary the
- 2:12Speaker 1: whole time. They've never been proactive under Pal's leadership or
- 2:15Speaker 1: lack of it, And you know, but it does give
- 2:19Speaker 1: them the ability to lower rates and dumb more money
- 2:24Speaker 1: into the system, do some more quantitative easing I think
- 2:26Speaker 1: is going to happen as well. But I think they're
- 2:29Speaker 1: going to lower rates as much as one percent if
- 2:31Speaker 1: not a little bit more before the end of the year.
- 2:33Speaker 3: Hey, so is this good for gold? Is it good
- 2:36Speaker 3: for stocks? What do you do? Because the average person
- 2:39Speaker 3: out there, which I feel like I'm one of them,
- 2:42Speaker 3: is not really sure what to do. My gut field
- 2:44Speaker 3: tells me this little mini crash here, the fact that's
- 2:48Speaker 3: happening in August, the fact that you know, they were
- 2:53Speaker 3: leaning towards cutting rates the FED, but they didn't do
- 2:56Speaker 3: it yet. There's something afoot here.
- 2:59Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you know, I mean we were expecting a
- 3:02Speaker 1: correction as far back as is March April, you know,
- 3:07Speaker 1: and we did. We hit correction, you know, territory, we
- 3:11Speaker 1: you know, we almost did bear territory with a with
- 3:13Speaker 1: a Nasdaq. But again, you know, I think it was
- 3:17Speaker 1: this this panic you know, the the the panic index,
- 3:22Speaker 1: the VICS that that went up like one hundred and
- 3:24Speaker 1: whatever it was one hundred and fifty percent, one hundred
- 3:27Speaker 1: and sixty percent or one hundred and eighty percent whatever was,
- 3:29Speaker 1: you know, in a in a seven eight hour period,
- 3:33Speaker 1: you know, just showed that.
- 3:34Speaker 3: The sell off.
- 3:37Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to say that it was planned,
- 3:39Speaker 1: but you know, those the powers that be, you know,
- 3:43Speaker 1: the these hedge funds, these large institutional investors. You know,
- 3:48Speaker 1: they were taking profits knowing that you know, the the
- 3:50Speaker 1: FEDS would be able to come back in law rates,
- 3:53Speaker 1: you know, do some more easing and then have the
- 3:56Speaker 1: ability to uh uh, you know, turn around and make
- 4:01Speaker 1: some more money. But I think the reason that they're
- 4:04Speaker 1: going to lower rates as a bigger picture thing from
- 4:08Speaker 1: an election cycle standpoint, is to have the market rally
- 4:12Speaker 1: right before the election and say, see, I told you so,
- 4:14Speaker 1: everything's great.
- 4:16Speaker 3: You could very well be correct there. I certainly wouldn't
- 4:19Speaker 3: put it past them, But you know, little things like inflation. Now,
- 4:25Speaker 3: I'll admit I'm affected by it just like you, but
- 4:29Speaker 3: not so much as the people, the working poor, the
- 4:33Speaker 3: middle class. Those people are being decimated, being crushed. Yeah, yeah,
- 4:38Speaker 3: I mean there really is a tail of two cities, right.
- 4:42Speaker 3: You know, you've got the difference between Main Street and
- 4:45Speaker 3: Wall Street, and you're talking about the working poor. Well,
- 4:48Speaker 3: the reality is, I mean the middle class, they're becoming
- 4:50Speaker 3: the working poor. You know, here in Ohio they passed
- 4:54Speaker 3: a rating increase just for for power electricity that kicked
- 4:59Speaker 3: in the summer, and so people's utility bills went up
- 5:02Speaker 3: as much as thirty percent, you know, not to mention
- 5:05Speaker 3: the increase you know every time we go to the
- 5:07Speaker 3: pumps into the grocery store. So in taxes, right, I mean,
- 5:12Speaker 3: the property taxes, everything has just been increasing, and so
- 5:16Speaker 3: you know, people continue We've had more people borrow against
- 5:19Speaker 3: the retirement accounts. They're four to one keys now than
- 5:23Speaker 3: they did, you know, in in two thousand and eight
- 5:25Speaker 3: and two thousand and nine. You know, we've got you know,
- 5:29Speaker 3: bankruptcies up, We've we've got repossessions on vehicles up. So
- 5:34Speaker 3: all of these.
- 5:35Speaker 1: Things that we continue to look at. I say it
- 5:37Speaker 1: all the time, right, the dead bubble, and it just
- 5:40Speaker 1: keeps mounting and mounting and mounting. And we're just talking
- 5:43Speaker 1: about lower rates. You know, all that is going to
- 5:46Speaker 1: do is continue to kick the keyn down the road,
- 5:50Speaker 1: and inflation is going to you know, just get higher
- 5:52Speaker 1: and higher, especially under the current economic policies were lack thereof.
- 5:57Speaker 1: So we may get temporary relief as far as the
- 6:00Speaker 1: market goes, but Main Street, I mean it's really it's
- 6:04Speaker 1: not going to benefit them nearly as much as it is.
- 6:07Speaker 3: You know, Wall Street, for sure, main Street's bleeding. Wall
- 6:10Speaker 3: Street is profiting right as usual, right, Yeah, which is typical. Yeah,
- 6:17Speaker 3: well that's the way the system is designed. I hate
- 6:19Speaker 3: to say that everything's rigged, but everything is rigged. Yeah.
- 6:23Speaker 1: You know when when you see the same hands being dealt,
- 6:27Speaker 1: you know, it's it's cyclical.
- 6:29Speaker 3: You know.
- 6:29Speaker 1: We we saw it, you know, in in the you know,
- 6:32Speaker 1: early eighties, we saw it the tech bubble with the
- 6:35Speaker 1: housing bubble, and you know, we're we're kind of seeing
- 6:38Speaker 1: it right now.
- 6:39Speaker 3: You know, every.
- 6:40Speaker 1: Every couple of years there there seems to be a
- 6:43Speaker 1: reset where we get to a certain point and you know,
- 6:46Speaker 1: things back off, and you know, those who make money
- 6:50Speaker 1: make more, and you know those who don't, you know,
- 6:53Speaker 1: they they don't, they lose out. And so that's I
- 6:57Speaker 1: think that's why, you know, having a strong economic policy
- 7:01Speaker 1: and in a more importantly strong energy policy and bringing
- 7:05Speaker 1: manufacturing back to the US is going to be so
- 7:07Speaker 1: very important in order to have the you know, the
- 7:11Speaker 1: the American dream be reinstituted, be because I think it's
- 7:15Speaker 1: faltering right now.
- 7:16Speaker 3: I think you are correct on that one for sure.
- 7:19Speaker 3: So this looks like it's going to be good for gold,
- 7:23Speaker 3: precious metals. Maybe crypto crypto even got hit ed.
- 7:27Speaker 1: Yeah, crushed, Yeah, I saw a gain all the way
- 7:29Speaker 1: down to forty nine thousand. Obviously bounced back up, but
- 7:32Speaker 1: then you know that was a pretty steep drop. Gold
- 7:35Speaker 1: went down a little bit. But you know, I think, uh,
- 7:38Speaker 1: with what we're seeing right now, the US dollar, you know, dropping,
- 7:43Speaker 1: not getting a little bit weaker, you know that's going
- 7:47Speaker 1: to be good for gold. I mean, that's telling us
- 7:49Speaker 1: that there's some inflationary pressure still on the horizon. You know,
- 7:53Speaker 1: everyone's so focused on the jobs numbers, and you know
- 7:56Speaker 1: those I think those stats are skewed. You know, goes
- 7:59Speaker 1: back if you hold saying. My economic professor used to
- 8:02Speaker 1: say all the time, right, there's lies, there's damn lies,
- 8:05Speaker 1: and there's statistics.
- 8:07Speaker 3: Mindset that break. We have the same we got to
- 8:09Speaker 3: the same school there we mayn't.
- 8:14Speaker 1: And you know, so you really have to do your
- 8:17Speaker 1: own research. You really have to look at the big picture.
- 8:19Speaker 1: You know, everyone's just so myopic and they're thinking until yesterday,
- 8:24Speaker 1: right when you know the market was tumbling and you know, well,
- 8:28Speaker 1: you know, now's the time to run, you know, go
- 8:30Speaker 1: ahead and cash in your chips and everything else. Well
- 8:32Speaker 1: by that time, it's already too late, right, those in
- 8:35Speaker 1: the know already got out, you know, and but I
- 8:39Speaker 1: think there's still some good buys out there.
- 8:40Speaker 3: But well, i'll tell you what, if you have.
- 8:43Speaker 1: Cash shitting on the sidelines. I don't think this is
- 8:46Speaker 1: done yet. I think there's still going to be some
- 8:47Speaker 1: yo yoing going on and until they lower rates, and
- 8:52Speaker 1: I think that that's going to cause a rally in
- 8:56Speaker 1: the near term, right.
- 8:58Speaker 3: So between now and the end of the year.
- 8:59Speaker 1: But I'm telling you, I, in my heart of hearts,
- 9:01Speaker 1: I think the election is going to have a huge
- 9:05Speaker 1: effect on the outcome of not just the economy, but
- 9:08Speaker 1: the markets that everyone's retirement savings.
- 9:11Speaker 3: Eight. I want to talk about housing for a minute,
- 9:13Speaker 3: because that got his hand in hand with rate cuts.
- 9:16Speaker 3: Already got inventory shortage. Although as rates have gone higher,
- 9:20Speaker 3: less people buying, but the inventory is so low. We
- 9:23Speaker 3: do have pockets and weakness like in Miami, in Florida
- 9:27Speaker 3: the condom market for different reasons. Those are localized reasons,
- 9:33Speaker 3: you know, due to state law requirements, insurance crisis in Florida.
- 9:38Speaker 3: But I will point you to we're talking here. August sixth,
- 9:44Speaker 3: lenaar just made a new all time high all right
- 9:49Speaker 3: or close to it. It's all time high fifty two
- 9:53Speaker 3: week high it was what eighty two fifty three, it's
- 9:56Speaker 3: barely under that at one seventy four. You know, it's
- 10:00Speaker 3: the same with like you look at the h Horton
- 10:04Speaker 3: and all of the all of if you look at
- 10:07Speaker 3: the charts on them, all of them are going higher
- 10:10Speaker 3: as of today. So what does that tell you? Huh?
- 10:15Speaker 1: Well, absolutely, And I think that's part and parcel to
- 10:20Speaker 1: you know, the you know, the bonds going down, the
- 10:24Speaker 1: treasure US treasuries, the two year and the ten year,
- 10:26Speaker 1: you know, dipping down so much. I saw yesterday where
- 10:30Speaker 1: you know, uh, thirty year fixed rate mortgage. You know
- 10:33Speaker 1: it's five point eight percent, you know, and and and
- 10:37Speaker 1: so I think that's spurring on okay, you know people
- 10:39Speaker 1: that may have been waiting on the sidelines, but you know,
- 10:44Speaker 1: housing is so unaffordable. In order to make it more affordable,
- 10:49Speaker 1: you know, interest rates have to come down. You know,
- 10:51Speaker 1: it's a double edged sword. But then the prices are
- 10:54Speaker 1: go back up, right, So it's and it's supplying demand.
- 10:58Speaker 1: You know, you were talking about inventory, you know here
- 11:00Speaker 1: in our area, I mean there's hardly any inventory. I
- 11:04Speaker 1: mean people are knocking on doors, you know, hey, do
- 11:07Speaker 1: you want to sell your home because there just isn't
- 11:09Speaker 1: anything out there. There's definitely not anything affordable. I mean,
- 11:13Speaker 1: you know, you're lucky if you can find any kind
- 11:15Speaker 1: of a home under a half a million dollars in
- 11:18Speaker 1: any neighborhood. And that's you know, when the average price
- 11:22Speaker 1: of our home four or five years ago was you know,
- 11:24Speaker 1: just a couple hundred thousand. Now, and don't get me wrong,
- 11:27Speaker 1: that's a lot of money too, but to have it,
- 11:29Speaker 1: you know, more than double in such a short period
- 11:31Speaker 1: of time, you know, that's telling you that there's something
- 11:34Speaker 1: else afoot for sure.
- 11:36Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, So once the election madness is over, we're
- 11:41Speaker 3: going to have a real crash or rate's going to
- 11:43Speaker 3: be firmly rate cuts ensconced. We go on and on,
- 11:47Speaker 3: and how does this fit in with the carry trade
- 11:50Speaker 3: as well?
- 11:51Speaker 1: So, you know, I think the outcome of the election, right,
- 11:54Speaker 1: if if the current economic policies it's the current administration
- 11:58Speaker 1: and the current policy caes are being furthered on, it's
- 12:02Speaker 1: going to create a huge economic downturn and I think
- 12:05Speaker 1: the market is going to suffer dramatically.
- 12:08Speaker 3: You know, if there is a change in the.
- 12:10Speaker 1: Administration and more imporly the economic policy and we we
- 12:13Speaker 1: become energy independent again. Uh you know, I I think
- 12:17Speaker 1: that's we're gonna see, you know, a spurt of economic
- 12:22Speaker 1: growth that's going to be continued on, you know. I
- 12:25Speaker 1: you know, talking about the the carry trade, especially as
- 12:28Speaker 1: it relates to the end, you know, I I don't
- 12:31Speaker 1: think that that's what caused the the huge fear issue.
- 12:37Speaker 3: Uh yesterday and the and the big decline.
- 12:40Speaker 1: It was the first time that the Nasdaq was ever
- 12:42Speaker 1: down a thousand points, you know, in in one day,
- 12:46Speaker 1: ever at any point in time, you know. And so
- 12:51Speaker 1: when Japan raised their rates, you know, it shrunked that
- 12:55Speaker 1: arbitrage and and so a lot of people were buying
- 12:57Speaker 1: that on margin. So they were borrowing money from foreign
- 13:01Speaker 1: banks and Japanese banks especially in buying it in the end,
- 13:05Speaker 1: and you know, paying er point one percent or quarter percent,
- 13:09Speaker 1: and you know, even putting it in the US treasuries
- 13:11Speaker 1: at you know, five percent and that you know, that's
- 13:13Speaker 1: a huge arbitrage. But then when you margin that account
- 13:16Speaker 1: and you're having to pay interest on top of the loan,
- 13:19Speaker 1: now all of a sudden you have a negative arbitrage.
- 13:21Speaker 3: You know.
- 13:22Speaker 1: As as they went Japan raised rates and so that
- 13:25Speaker 1: affected the end. So I think that added insult to injury,
- 13:30Speaker 1: you know. But when you look at the global scale,
- 13:33Speaker 1: you know, the the global economy, you know, there is
- 13:37Speaker 1: you know, continued inflation everywhere. Uh, you know, we already
- 13:41Speaker 1: saw the EU, you know, lower rates. I think everyone's
- 13:46Speaker 1: kind of waiting on the US because if the US
- 13:49Speaker 1: economy falters, it's going to affect the you know, the
- 13:52Speaker 1: the global economy as well. So I think that will again,
- 13:56Speaker 1: you know, lower the end, you know, so as not
- 14:01Speaker 1: as low as what it was. But you know, there's
- 14:04Speaker 1: all these things that we have to look at. But
- 14:07Speaker 1: as a standalone, you know that carry trade, I don't
- 14:10Speaker 1: think that that was the cause that affected the huge
- 14:13Speaker 1: decrease over the last couple of days in the markets.
- 14:16Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a kind of a pile on effect, I think, yeah, absolutely.
- 14:21Speaker 3: You know, one thing that nobody's covering is the implosion
- 14:26Speaker 3: of the Chinese economy, the the solution of the Chinese
- 14:32Speaker 3: economic miracle over the past forty years. It's going it
- 14:36Speaker 3: went up like that and now it's going down like that.
- 14:39Speaker 3: It's it's downright scary, and like you said about statistics,
- 14:44Speaker 3: as much as you can't believe US government economic statistics,
- 14:48Speaker 3: you can't believe anything the Chinese say, well exactly.
- 14:52Speaker 1: I mean, you know that's why, you know, investing in
- 14:54Speaker 1: Chinese companies I think is so risky because they don't
- 14:57Speaker 1: follow the you know, the gap principles, so you don't
- 15:00Speaker 1: really know what the underlying profitability of these companies are.
- 15:04Speaker 1: And you know, so having our pensions and you know
- 15:07Speaker 1: sometimes a lot of government pensions in the and these
- 15:10Speaker 1: funds that they have that are investing in these Chinese companies,
- 15:12Speaker 1: I think is you know, the lack of a really
- 15:18Speaker 1: good fiduciary standard. I you know, I don't think that
- 15:21Speaker 1: it's it's proper because you know, I think they're at
- 15:23Speaker 1: a tipping point. You know, you still have all these
- 15:25Speaker 1: cities in China that that are completely vacant and they're struggling.
- 15:30Speaker 1: So I think they're faltering way more so than we
- 15:33Speaker 1: are right now.
- 15:34Speaker 3: I couldn't agree more. And the massive bloods they've been
- 15:38Speaker 3: having downright biblical business leading Shanghai the really the business
- 15:45Speaker 3: capital of the country. And you know, they said somewhere
- 15:49Speaker 3: around a million restaurants have closed in China and all
- 15:53Speaker 3: of these problems multi did you say a million restaurants?
- 15:57Speaker 3: Million restaurants in China.
- 15:59Speaker 1: Have Okay, but I knew it was a lot, I
- 16:01Speaker 1: didn't that. Well, okay, that's significant no matter how you
- 16:04Speaker 1: cut it. I mean that's huge. Mm.
- 16:07Speaker 3: Yeah, so a lot of things. But of course the
- 16:09Speaker 3: American press doesn't cover any of this, so it really
- 16:13Speaker 3: is only giving giving you like a small portion of
- 16:16Speaker 3: the story and then blaming it on sun spots or something.
- 16:23Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I mean we all have like we're surprise, right,
- 16:27Speaker 1: you know, it's it's yeah, you know what, Oh my gosh,
- 16:33Speaker 1: now my mind went playing acount and now you know
- 16:35Speaker 1: the rest of the story. Well, you know, we're not
- 16:37Speaker 1: being told the rest of the story.
- 16:38Speaker 3: That's that's the problem, multiple stories on China. That's one
- 16:43Speaker 3: million restaurant enclosures this year, just this year, been many
- 16:48Speaker 3: many more in prior years. But of course, again that's
- 16:53Speaker 3: the rest of this story. So it's the global economy
- 16:57Speaker 3: here the only thing holding it up, but really is
- 17:00Speaker 3: the United States. And that's another reason why this stock
- 17:05Speaker 3: market is doing better here because yeah, there's a lot
- 17:09Speaker 3: of monkey business going on, but there's a lot of
- 17:12Speaker 3: flight capital and you can only own so much goal
- 17:15Speaker 3: that physically account for it, and then you've got to
- 17:18Speaker 3: put it into paper to some extent.
- 17:21Speaker 1: And yeah, because you have to be able to I
- 17:23Speaker 1: mean currency, you have to be able to spend it.
- 17:24Speaker 1: And that's why you know, Brisa is is a big deal. Right,
- 17:28Speaker 1: I'm not mitigating that at all, but you know it's
- 17:33Speaker 1: I do not right now if depending on the outcome
- 17:37Speaker 1: of the election. You know, I do not foresee the
- 17:42Speaker 1: US dollar being surpassed as the reserve currency, because where
- 17:47Speaker 1: else are you going to put your money?
- 17:48Speaker 3: I mean you know there is an alternative? Right? Yeah? Well,
- 17:54Speaker 3: quite a mess they've gotten us into, hopefully, like go, well,
- 17:58Speaker 3: Rogers said, ignorance got us into this mess, and ignorance
- 18:01Speaker 3: I'll get us out right, well said, well set So
- 18:08Speaker 3: all right, ED, just tell us where do we find you?
- 18:10Speaker 3: How do we connect with you on the web.
- 18:13Speaker 1: Yeah, you can find us at egsifinancial dot com. That's
- 18:18Speaker 1: the best place to find.
- 18:19Speaker 3: Us, excellent, And that link is in the shut out
- 18:22Speaker 3: to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. When
- 18:25Speaker 3: you go there, please sign up for your free newsletter.
- 18:28Speaker 3: You just click Ed's link you get to a site
- 18:30Speaker 3: find out all about it. Ed I like your approach.
- 18:33Speaker 3: You're not locked into stocks which sometimes are really a
- 18:38Speaker 3: four letter word like yesterday. And you know you got
- 18:43Speaker 3: to keep an open an open attitude, an open mindset
- 18:47Speaker 3: when you're looking for the long term, because things change
- 18:51Speaker 3: and therefore your investments need to change with them. Absolutely
- 18:55Speaker 3: all right, we'll see you soon. Thanks for stopping by it.
- 18:57Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Thanks for listening to Carey Leuxes.
- 19:00Speaker 2: Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For
- 19:05Speaker 2: the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival
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